SB Nation User Blog: TopDaddy

Top 5 Keys to Victory Over Texas: #1

TopDaddy — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:52:47 -0000

Over the next few days, time permitting, I will attempt to point out and analyse the 5 main keys (as I see them) to winning the BCS Championship. Some may seem obvious, but hopefully some of you will be enlightened.

#1: Take Advantage of Turnovers

Now, this key alludes to the fact that Texas WILL turn the ball over, and that assumption is a statistically valid one. Simply taking a look at McCoy's susceptibility to turning the ball over, you would find the following:

McCoy has been the starting UT quarterback for Texas' last 51 games. In those 51 games, he has turned the ball over (either by throwing an interception or fumbling) a total of 56 times. That's right, 56. And this was not simply a case of Freshman fumblitis or Sophomore Slump (although that was his worst year); his uncanny ability to cough up the football has been fairly even. In his Freshman year - 9 T.O.s, Sophomore - 21, Junior - 10, and thus far in his Senior year - 16.

Also of note is the fact that in his 51 games, he has only 14 games where he has not been responsible for any turnovers; and this includes only 3 games this year where he has not recorded a turnover. These three teams that could not force McCoy to turn the ball over included: Texas A&M (107th in defense nationally), Baylor (95th), and Oklahoma State (33rd). The two best defenses that UT faced were Nebraska (8th in defense nationally) and Oklahoma (7th). Both of these teams forced 3 McCoy turnovers in each of their respective games.

So with Texas (namely McCoy) turning the ball over with such regularity, how have they remained so successful over the past 4 years? DEFENSE! Just because the Horns (again, namely McCoy) have been T.O. prone does not necessarily mean they have lost the turnover battle. Against Nebraska, UT's defense forced 3 Nebraska turnovers of their own, while in the Oklahoma game, they forced 5 Sooner turnovers. Teams have not been very successful in converting UT's mishaps into points. Nebraska was able to convert UT's three turnovers into 9 points, but that's not going to get it done most of the time.

So all of this is to say that statistically it's not a matter of "if" we can force McCoy to turn the ball over, but "when". And "when" that/those turnover(s) come, if we can make them hurt. Bama will need to get some hits on McCoy, and force him to think a little quicker; thus forcing him to make bad decisions. Also, McCoy does not seem to let his turnovers affect his play for the rest of the game. He does not get flustered, and likely will not lose confidence if he gives the ball away; so the key is not to get into his head, but to simply convert his mistakes into points each and every time we get the opportunity.

Comments welcome, and ROLL TIDE!

McElwain out of the running for SJSU Head Coach

TopDaddy — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:39:33 -0000

McElwain out of the running for SJSU Head Coach

Looks like we've got him another year.

Playoff Legislation to be a topic on the House floor today

TopDaddy — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:22:32 -0000

Playoff Legislation to be a topic on the House floor today

We shall see if the "a game cannot be considered a National Championship unless it's the last game of a single game elimination tournament" card works. I believe the main target will be for merchandising, as it will not be allowed to say "National Championship" if this bill passes.

Brian Kelly to Notre Dame

TopDaddy — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 22:25:21 -0000

Brian Kelly to Notre Dame

This is from Irish Central, but it sounds more legit than anything I've seen thus far. Good news for the SECC loser: playing a pack of Bearcats whose coach is on the outs. Still speculation mostly, but again, seems sound.

The Algebraic Keys to Winning the SECC...

TopDaddy — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:07:49 -0000

So Bama and UF have had six common opponents this season: UK, USCe, Miss St, UT, LSU, and Ark.

Using the stats from these games, we find the following:

Average Points per Game: Bama - 26.6; Fla - 25.5

Average Offensive Yards: Bama - 314; Fla - 375

Average Plays per Game: Bama - 63.3; Fla - 66.8

Using these numbers gives you:

Average Yards per Point: Bama - 11.8; Fla - 14.7; which basically just shows you the effeciency of yardage gained toward scoring points.

Average Yards per Play: Bama - 4.96; Fla - 5.61.

Using these two numbers for each team, we find out that (assuming both teams maintain the same efficiency) Bama will need to run at least 91% of the total number of plays that Florida runs to stay ahead score-wise.

[(5.61)(Total # of Florida Plays)] / 14.7 = [(4.96)(Total # of Bama Plays)] / 11.8

So, if Florida sticks to their average of running just under 67 plays per game, Bama will have to run at least 61 plays to win the ballgame. Simple as that!

Cardiac Bowl Observations and such

TopDaddy — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:46:38 -0000

Here are a few mental regurgitations after watching the game again this morning:

* As much as I hate to admit it, that reverse was a beautifully executed play; mostly in relation to downfield blocking. Every defender that had a chance to bring down Zachary was picked up at the last minute, and after the fact I can definitely appreciate how well it was planned out.

* Auburn's D surprised the hell out of me. Especially the middle linebacker (I didn't catch his name, but he was #U). Dude had two pass deflections and a perfectly timed pass break up on Ingram. Bottom line, the guy stepped up in the clutch and got the job done for the AU D.

* Upchurch. That is all.

* AU's last drive was very LSU-esque. In a minute-13 and one timeout, they only pulled out 6 plays, I believe; while a ton of time was wasted audibling at the line by Todd. Two short passes over the middle, two draws up the middle, a long slant, and a hail mary. No sideline passes, and very little attempt at getting first downs to at least stop the clock momentarily. Very surprising.

* Our inability to check down at the line is what led to Ingram getting banged up. McElroy and the O line up on 2nd and whatever in an obvious running down late in The Drive. Not only does AU line up 8 in the box, the put 8 ON the line. McElroy sees this (as does everyone else on Earth), but instead of checking down to a quick out to Julio (who is covered 1 on 1 down low), we run the dive up the middle as called and Ingram gets hit about 47 times. What happened to calling two plays in the huddle? That would have been the perfect time to check down to ANYTHING else in the playbook.

* McElroy... buddy... WHO THE F- WERE YOU THROWING TO ON THE 2 PT CONV? Great game otherwise! Needed you to step up, and you did.

* The 3rd AU TD was as a result of the corner blitz that left Barron on an island, but did was stop running it? NO! And it led to 2 stops behind the line, a sack, and a stop for short yardage; and that was just in the late 3rd and 4th quarter. What differences does Saban and Co. bring to the table that other coaching staffs didn't? The lack of fear to keep running a play when you've gotten burnt once already. Way to play balls out, CNS!

* We almost got to the punter thrice. We may need to get to one next week to counteract the fact that we will likely not have ANY punt return yards. The Gators are pretty good in that aspect.

* Roll Tide! Cheers!

KKK to protest the banning of "From Dixie With Love" in Oxford

TopDaddy — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:29:26 -0000

KKK to protest the banning of "From Dixie With Love" in Oxford

Damn, looks like Col. Reb's got some serious pull in MS. Hard core folks over there.

San Jose State's HC Tomey to retire at season's end

TopDaddy — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:38:06 -0000

San Jose State's HC Tomey to retire at season's end

The Spartans will come into T-Town to begin our 2010 CFB season under new management. I think this job would be a great opportunity for Fran, Tubs, T. Bowden, or Fulmer [fingers crossed for this type situation].

I don't know what to make of this...

TopDaddy — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:25:10 -0000

...but our very own Leigh Tiffin is leading the nation with 20 field goals. Granted, he's only second in the "Field Goals Per Game" category, as UCLA has only played 7 games, and their PK currently has 19, but this is a stat that I don't recall Bama topping in quite some time, if ever. I guess it's good that he's "Money" (anyone? anyone? Beuller?), but I just feel that this is not the greatest of signs. As the title states, I just don't know what to make of this...

Ingram Leading Tebow for 1st Place in the ESPN Experts List of Heisman Voting

TopDaddy — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 22:26:15 -0000

Ingram Leading Tebow for 1st Place in the ESPN Experts List of Heisman Voting

I don't put much emphasis on this for many various and obvious reasons, but it's interesting nonetheless. Plus, looks like McClain's getting some "Expert" love.