SB Nation User Blog: Torgen

Rios claimed on trade waivers

Torgen — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 20:26:19 -0000

Rios claimed on trade waivers

Olney is reporting that someone has claimed Rios. The first try at waivers is revocable, so the Jays can pull him back, work out a trade with the claiming team, or give his contract to them. Rios has a full NTC, but I don't think that affects waiver claims.

It's all about the Bordens baby

Torgen — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 17:12:42 -0000

In 2008, the Jays' payroll in Canadian dollars (valued at the start of the preceding offseason) was about $100MM. In 2009, the Jays' payroll in canadian dollars (valued at the start of the preceding offseason) was about $100MM.

It's not JP Ricciardi's fault, or Paul Beeston's fault, or Rogers Media's fault that in the former case a Canadian dollar bought a US dollar and in the latter it only bought 80 US cents. But right now the Canadian dollar is worth about 92 US cents, and if that's where it ends up in November then it means that with zero additional investment from ownership, the Jays will have about $12MM USD to spend this offseason. Considering the one year deals some very good players signed last year, $12MM can buy some pretty significant improvements over this year's problem positions. In other words, keeping Halladay to win in 2010 isn't just posturing. (This also means that the Jays have the hardest GM job in baseball, not because of the teams they have to compete against, but because you have to succeed at everything every other team does plus currency speculation .)

Poll

How many US Dollars will $100MM CAD buy this coming offseason?

< $80MM

0 votes

$80MM-$84.9MM

0 votes

$85MM-$89.9MM

2 votes

$90MM-$94.9MM

4 votes

$95MM-$99.9MM

2 votes

>$100MM

1 votes

9 votes | Poll has closed

BJ Ryan released

Torgen — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 19:46:05 -0000

BJ Ryan released

Crasnick on Wells

Torgen — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 17:29:31 -0000

Crasnick on Wells

ESPN actually wrote a story about a Jay? I'm keeping my eye out for horsemen.

Why bother pinch hitting?

Torgen — Tue, 19 May 2009 00:31:49 -0000

Why bother pinch hitting?

Dave Cameron thinks we're successful in part because we don't pinch hit, considering how poorly pinch hitters have been hitting.

Lineup Optimization

Torgen — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 06:01:55 -0000

I know we had a fanpost about two months ago about what our lineup would probably look like, but Sky Kalkman has a hub for what each team's lineup should look like, and we haven't joined in yet.

I'll explain the ideals for each slot the first time through when we talk about the lineup vs. righties, and then I'll just talk about the players the second time for lefties.

Leadoff: OBP is king, except if he has a ton of power since that can be better placed elsewhere in the lineup. If Overbay hasn't regained his 2004-2006 form then he's the right choice here against righties. If he has he's more valuable lower down, in which case you probably put Scutaro here because he didn't have really significant platoon splits in 2008.

Cleanup: The second most important spot in the lineup. OBP and SLG are both important. If you take the projections at face value, then Rios is the best choice here even without assuming he'll put together the power seasons he had going in 2006 (pre-staph), 2007 (pre-derby), and 2008 (post-Cito). If Rolen's power is back then he should also go here so you can move Rios to a slot where his speed is more relevant. If Wells' rate stats from 2008 hold up over the whole season he's next in line. If you assume all these guys' reverse platoon splits in 2008 were ephemeral then you can put Overbay here if his power is back.

Two Hole: The two hole gets the same situations as the three hole more often, and thus should be better. He certainly shouldn't be bunting. If Overbay's power is back, then put Rolen here. If not then I'd put Wells here. This is a tough call because Wells' splits have been so weird lately--his platoon splits for OBP got a lot closer in 2008 over 2007 and his SLG was actually better against righties than lefties in 2008. If 2007 repeats then you probably have to shift people around, but that almost certainly ends up with Wells hitting very low in the lineup against righties.

Three and Five: The three and five hitters should be similar, with the five hitter better unless he derives a significant portion of his value from power. I'm putting Rios fifth because base stealing is more powerful lower in the lineup. For the third spot I'm putting Lind if Overbay's power isn't back, since it separates the lefties with a hitter who can punish lefties if the opposing team tries to go to a LOOGY. If Overbay's power is back then I put Wells here.

Six through Nine: Descending order of talent, with base thieves near the top to be driven in by singles hitters near the bottom, and possible considerations for handedness. Barajas is clearly number 9. If Overbay is hitting well then he's 4th, so put Lind 6th and Snider 8th to spread them out. That leaves Hill hitting 7th. If Overbay's power is still gone, then I put Snider 6th, Hill 7th, and Scutaro 8th.

Optimistic about Overbay:

Scutaro
Rolen
Wells
Overbay
Rios
Lind
Hill
Snider
Barajas

Pessimistic about Overbay:

Overbay
Rolen/Wells
Lind
Wells/Rolen
Rios
Snider
Hill
Scutaro
Barajas

(Rolen bats 4th if his power recovers, 2nd if not.)

Vs. Lefties:

Hill had large platoon splits in 2007 and 2008, so I'll put him leading off. Wells had great OBP and pretty good SLG against lefties, so he'll bat cleanup. I'll put Rolen second because he had forward OBP splits and reverse SLG splits against lefties, and he's still a good choice if they straighten out. I'm tempted to stick with Lind batting third--small sample size acknowledged, his platoon splits weren't as big as, say, David Ortiz's in 2008, and if you don't put a lefty near the top of the lineup then you end up with Barajas batting 8th to avoid clumping, and nobody really wants that. Rios is back batting 5th for the same reasons as above. Barajas is back at 9th again, which leaves Snider, Scutaro, and Overbay. I'd put them in that order if you're using the pessimistic lineup and the reverse if you're using the optimistic lineup, so that Snider bats in the same spot in the lineup, and because the rising tide might lift the sinking ship of Overbay's numbers against lefties.

Hill
Rolen
Lind
Wells
Rios
Snider/Overbay
Scutaro
Overbay/Snider
Barajas

(Overbay bats 8th if using the pessimistic lineup against righties, 6th if using the optimistic lineup.)

Glaus/Rolen trade looks better for Jays

Torgen — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 22:38:27 -0000

Glaus/Rolen trade looks better for Jays

If you had to pick one of the players in this deal to miss 3 months following arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder, you'd have picked Rolen, right? But you'd have been wrong.

Fun with the 09 schedule

Torgen — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 18:24:42 -0000

The '09 schedule is out, so let's take a look.

Interleague: We visit Atlanta in the middle of a 9 game road trip during the May preview. In June we host the Marlins and the Reds, visit the Nats, and have a home-and-home with the Phils.
Division Rivals: We don't play Tampa until June 29th, meaning they're the Canada Day game (at home!). We have 2 home weekend series with Boston and one with NY, the latter being a 4 gamer.
West coast swings: a 5 gamer in May and a 6 gamer from the end of July to the start of August. We only play 2 games in Anaheim. Both the Oakland series are on the weekends, which is a pain for me personally because I can easily go to those games whenever they are in the week, but I can't go elsewhere on the west coast for weekday games.
The stretch: We host Baltimore and Seattle for 7 total on the last homestand of the season before going on the road for 6 in Boston and Baltimore.
Off days: April 20, May 11 (travel day), 28, June 1, 15, 22, July 2, 13-16 (ASB), 20, 30, August 3 (travel day), 6, 13, 17, 27, September 17, October 1.
Home opener: 4 games against Detroit, April 6-9. Nice choice, putting the opener in a weatherproof stadium.

RISP

Torgen — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 06:20:05 -0000

We all know about the team's poor performance with RISP, to the order of a .234 AVG (although perhaps we didn't notice our opponents' even worse performance, a mere .225). But who's really to blame?

Limiting our view to just the regulars, we get:

Player	AVG w/ RISP	WPA
Eckstein	.340	-0.92
Barajas	.282	0.03
Wells	.265	-0.42
Wilkerson	.265	-0.29
Scutaro	.259	-0.90
Hill	.255	-1.04
Zaun	.225	-0.01
Rios	.215	-0.25
Stewart	.211	-0.85
Inglett	.208	0.50
Stairs	.205	-1.03
Thomas	.200	0.02
McDonald	.200	-0.12
Mench	.188	-0.65
Rolen	.186	-0.30
Overbay	.180	-0.43

Some interesting stuff in there. For example, on Sunday Wells got booed for popping up with the bases loaded and two out, when he's actually been one of the best on the team. Also fun is that Eckstein has 17 RISP hits but only 16 RISP RBIs.

Jays close to adding Eckstein?

Torgen — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 16:29:25 -0000

According to (among other things) http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071213&content_id=2324652&vkey=news_t or&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor, the jays are close to a deal with Eckstein. No terms given.

Obviously David X would replace the PMoD as starting shortstop. Well, unless some kind of Royce Clayton thing happened. If we add X, does that mean we're done with Sparky?