SB Nation User Blog: Travis G

Concerning the Jays

Travis G — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 21:32:42 -0000

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Tom Dakers (aka Rincewind) of Bluebird Banter answered some questions for us regarding his team:

1. What's wrong with Wells and Rios? Why are they not only failing to live up to seasons past, but performing below average?

Man, if I had the answer to that I'd have a job with the team. It seems like there are two different problems, Rios is hitting decent at home, lousy on the road, he had a good May, then a crappy June. Half the time it seems his head isn't in the game.He's over run bases, thrown to the wrong place in the outfield and generally just not been all there a lot of the time.

Wells, I don't know. He's been not too bad on the road, god awful at home. Anytime it looks like he's pulling out of his season long slump, he drops into a long hitless streak again. A lot of the time he's pull happy, a pitch a foot off the outside of the plate and he tries to pull it. Surprisingly that doesn't work that well. Added into the fun is that he's no longer a good centerfielder.

Wells and Rios were our best bats last year and really I don't see any reason they won pull out of their slumps, but then I don't see any sign they will.

2. Will the Jays be buyers or sellers at the deadline? If sellers, who's gone? If buyers, what area needs improvement?

I think the next couple of weeks will likely tell the tale on that question. I really don't see them being sellers. No one is going to take Vernon's contract off our hands or B.J. Ryan's for that matter and the other veteran's we want to keep for next season when some of the half dozen or so injured starting pitchers return to the active roster.

If buyers, we really need a bat to the DH spot. Kevin Millar was a mistake from the word go and Travis Snider seems to need a little more time in the minors and has had a back injury so odds are he won't be coming back to the team soon. I'm wishing for Nick Johnson from the Nationals but a good bat would be what we need.

3. Playoff odds on the Jays right now?

The odds depend on whether we can keep our starting pitchers healthy, which we haven't been able to do this year. Even Doc spent two weeks on the DL. We can't afford to loss any more starters. Beyond that if Vernon and Alex could find their strokes, we'd have a good shot. If those things don't happen, odds are long.

Update on Chapman, Jesus

Travis G — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:15:12 -0000

View full size photo uploaded July 3, 2009

So Aroldis Chapman has indeed defected (while in Europe with the Cuban national team). ESPN thinks he'll be with a ML organization by next year, and has a quote from Yankee senior VP Mark Newman saying that Chapman will draw interest from the Yanks. Preliminary assumptions put Chapman's initial contract between $30 and $60 million! Jose Contreras got $32 million for four years, but was considerably older. (h/t to BPro)

- Praise Jesus! 2-5 with another homer (that's four straight games).

Game 78: More lefties

Travis G — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 19:54:58 -0000

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It would be nice if Girardi could find a way to break up the two lefties in the rotation. I don't know for a fact that seeing the same handed pitcher on consecutive days is detrimental, but common sense says it is.

Our best pitcher, CC Sabathia, goes for the sweep against Jason Vargas ('Vargas!'), who missed all of last season due to a torn hip labrum (um... you hear that, Alex?).

Sabathia hasn't faced the M's since 2007, but has done well against all their hitters (OPS under .754) except Ichiro (1.132 OPS). He's been great in his last three starts (16.1 ip, 2.81 ERA), so let's hope that continues.

Vargas has never faced any Yankee hitter, and has sucked in his last three starts (16.1 ip, 7.16 ERA), so let's hope that continues.

Lineup

Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

07/02/09 7:05 PM EDT

Seattle Mariners	New York Yankees
Ichiro Suzuki - RF	Derek Jeter - SS
Russell Branyan - 1B	Johnny Damon - LF
Jose Lopez - 2B	Mark Teixeira - 1B
Mike Sweeney - DH	Alex Rodriguez - 3B
Franklin Gutierrez - CF	Robinson Cano - 2B
Kenji Johjima - C	Nick Swisher - RF
Ryan Langerhans - LF	Hideki Matsui - DH
Chris Woodward - 3B	Melky Cabrera - CF
Ronny Cedeno - SS	Francisco Cervelli - C

The Yankees will announce their deal with Dominican catcher Gary Sanchez, a kid who reportedly can...

Travis G — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 21:44:58 -0000

The Yankees will announce their deal with Dominican catcher Gary Sanchez, a kid who reportedly can really hit. They also are said to have a deal with a speedy shortstop named Damian Arredondo and RHP Chris Cabrera.

Sanchez got $3 million. Arredondo ($850 K) is supposedly blazing fast (like Carlos Gomez/Brett Gardner fast), and has a good glove. Cabrera ($400 K) has touched 94 MPH. (h/t to LoHud and RAB)

Exciting minor league news

Travis G — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:11:06 -0000

We'll start with the apparent defection of Cuban southpaw Aroldis Chapman (translated from a Spanish-language article) -

The pitcher Aroldis Chapman, among the most promising pitchers in the Island, left the national team in baseball since Thursday to participate in the traditional tournament in Rotterdam (Netherlands).

"I am very happy. So far everything has gone well. It was a plan I had was a decision I took. I wanted to try this in baseball," said Chapman to CUBAENCUENTRO.com from a city whose name will not be revealed for security reasons. Now his plans are "sign with a team and play in Major League."

Do y'all remember Chapman from the WBC? The 21-year-old lefty that touched 100 MPH? Man it would be nice to get him into the organization. A power lefty is such a rarity that this option should be fully explored by the front office. (h/t to RAB)

Jesus is officially on fire, going 2-3 with a HR, 2B and BB, raising his Double-A batting line to .319/.395/.542.

Why can't every game be like this?

Travis G — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:36:34 -0000

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Two hours and 17 minutes, Yankees win, two walks, A-Rod hits a(nother) clutch homer and Mo gets a save.

Washburn was good, but Pettitte was better (or perhaps it was just that Seattle's lineup is so poor). The Yanks had one of their best games in years against Washburn, tagging him for four runs in seven innings. Pettitte was stellar: 7 ip, 2 er. What helped immensely were two base-running blunders: Franklin Gutierrez tried to steal second by walking there on a 2-2 pitch, and Wladimir Balentien was picked off first (Pettitte's specialty).

Melky hadn't reached base in 14 PA against Washburn, so of course he homered tonight. The Yanks scored all four runs on longballs: Damon, Melky and A-Rod (following a Tex single).

Yankee batters grounded into three double-plays (two in the first two innings), and went 0-2 with RISP, but scratched across enough runs for the win.

Game 77: Wily southpaws

Travis G — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 19:12:35 -0000

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Yankee-killer Jarrod Washburn (2.56 ERA in 81 career innings) takes the hill against the Bombers tonight.

Andy Pettitte will face him; he's done well against Seattle recently (3.10 ERA in three starts in 2007 and '08).

Only one current Yankee has hit Washburn with any authority: A-Rod (1.098 OPS). No one else is even at .850. One guy who should definitely sit tonight is Melky, who's failed to reach base in 14 PA against Washburn.

Against Pettitte, the M's are basically feast or famine. All of their hitters but one have an OPS either higher than .900 or lower than .700 (with three below .400).

Lineup

Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

07/01/09 7:05 PM EDT

Seattle Mariners	New York Yankees
Ichiro Suzuki - RF	Derek Jeter - SS
Russell Branyan - 1B	Johnny Damon - LF
Jose Lopez - 2B	Mark Teixeira - 1B
Ken Griffey Jr. - DH	Alex Rodriguez - DH
Franklin Gutierrez - CF	Jorge Posada - C
Wladimir Balentien - LF	Robinson Cano - 2B
Chris Woodward - 3B	Nick Swisher - RF
Rob Johnson - C	Melky Cabrera - CF
Ronny Cedeno - SS	Cody Ransom - 3B

Concerning the Mariners

Travis G — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 04:54:18 -0000

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Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing answered some questions regarding his team. (These were answered before Tuesday's game.)

1. The M's are only three games back. What are the odds they make the playoffs? Why? Will they be buyers or sellers?

Mathematically, we're looking at odds somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% as of this writing. Of course, with three in New York and three in Boston, that number could drop in a hurry, but I won't get ahead of myself. The key up to this point has been run prevention, and with the acquisition of Ryan Langerhans, it's clear the front office wants to stick with what's worked up until now. Whether this team ends up buying or selling as the deadline approaches, we can't say quite yet - realistically, the team could end up doing either. A lot depends on these next two weeks. After getting through this road trip and later closing the first half with four at home against Texas, we should have a much better idea of this team's position come the All Star Break. Sure would be nice to add a third baseman, though. Missing Beltre is all kinds of suck.

2. How is David Aardsma having such a good year? Will that continue?

Aardsma, as I think everybody knows, has always had a live arm, but with the Mariners he's pretty much abandoned all pretense of having a complete repertoire and started piping in heater after heater. Among pitchers with at least 20 innings this year, Aardsma's percentage of fastballs thrown is the third-highest in baseball at 88.5%. He just throws the same pitch time after time, and what's incredible is that it's worked. The high fastball is a strikeout pitch, and you better believe that Aardsma knows it. Will he continue to succeed at the level that he has over the first three months? That's highly unlikely - he allows a ton of fly balls and eventually some of them are going to clear the fence. But he should still be a reasonably valuable reliever, and considering the low price we paid to get him, that's pretty cool. I'm terrified of his regression, though. His and everyone else's.

3. Who's the MVP (so far) of the 2009 Mariners?

You're probably expecting me to say 'Ichiro' here, and I don't blame you - guys who hit .372 with good defense tend to be pretty valuable. But in terms of worth to the Mariners, Felix has been his equal, with Russell Branyan not far behind, so it's hard to pick one. Uhhhh. I'm going to go with Felix? He has been one of the three or four best pitchers in the AL so far, and our rotation would be a disaster without him. But Ichiro's got just as strong a case and god damn this question is hard

4. Who's been the biggest surprise and disappointment?

The biggest surprise is a toss-up between Aardsma and Branyan. On the one hand, you have a nobody-turned-closer who's suddenly started striking everyone out, but on the other you have a journeyman slugger who currently has the third-highest wOBA in the American League. I'll give the nod to Branyan, since his blossoming seems more sustainable going forward. It's amazing what can happen when an already talented hitter learns to make a little more contact. As far as disappointments go, Yuniesky Betancourt is a pile of poo. You won't see him, since he's on the DL with a hamstring injury, but everything about that guy has gotten worse and at this point his future outlook as a long-term regular is pretty dim. Bonus disappointment: Beltre's surgery. There's just nobody here capable of filling his shoes. You know what we're looking at as an infield for the next little while? Branyan - Cedeno - Woodward - Lopez. Oh my God.

Where to start?

Travis G — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 03:33:31 -0000

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A lot happened in this 8-5 win. Shall we start at the beginning?

1. Joba wasn't good, no question about it. Nine hits and three walks in 5.1 innings is a poor start. He was lucky to only allow three runs.

2. Morrow was just as bad: five hits and five walks in 4.2 innings (though just one earned run).

3. Outside of Franklin Gutierrez, who's as good as advertised in centerfield, Seattle's defense is very bad. Russell Branyan is a gargoyle at first and Chris Woodward nearly committed three errors in one inning.

4. BA w/ RISP was almost the death knell. The Yanks went 0-9 in that category before A-Rod's mammoth blast (and finished 4-16), which brings us to #5...

5. Who says he's not clutch? He destroyed a pitch in the seventh inning to break a three-all tie. It was one of the longest homers in the short history of the new Stadium. What shouldn't be forgotten are a few nice defensive plays he made, specifically a DP he turned in the second.

6. Melky went 1-3 but had three RBI: two sac RBI and an RBI double.

7. Great outing by Phil Coke. He only faced Ichiro and Branyan, but retired both with the go-ahead run on second.

7a. Phil Hughes... yada, yada, same old, same old, pitched another perfect inning.

8. What an awful eighth inning for Brian Bruney. You cannot allow consecutive hits on 0-2 counts. Bury a slider, go up the ladder with a fastball, anything other than a pitch in/near the strike zone.

9. Mo Rivera probably became the first player in history to throw out the ceremonial first pitch and the actual last pitch. It was save #501.

PS: Be sure to check out the Baltimore-Boston WPA graph. Wild stuff.

PPS: Jesus Montero gunned down a basestealer... oh, and popped two out of the park (to go along with a walk).

Game 76: Potential pitcher's duel

Travis G — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 16:07:06 -0000

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Both Brandon Morrow and Joba Chamberlain are capable of throwing no-hitters every time they go out there. Despite Morrow's 5.64 ERA, he's capable of great things, and tonight could be a pitcher's duel.

Morrow is in the midst of re-converting from reliever to starter. Do y'all remember that brilliant effort of his last September, when he allowed one run on one hit in 7.1 innings (to go along with eight Ks)? Anyway, that was his only start against the Yanks; he also has five relief appearances.

Joba has never started against Seattle (but has faced them three times in relief), and is coming off one of his better starts of the season, when he allowed two runs in 6.1 innings in Atlanta (and the best part? no walks).

There are a number of Yankees in the midst of a hot streak, but at the very top are old-buddies A-Rod and Jeter; they're OPSing 1.533 and 1.208 (respectively) over the last week. The only regular on the icy side is Robbie Cano, OPSing .488. Perhaps Girardi should drop him in the lineup until he starts hitting again.

Lineup

Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

06/30/09 7:05 PM EDT

Seattle Mariners	New York Yankees
Ichiro Suzuki - RF	Derek Jeter - SS
Russell Branyan - 1B	Johnny Damon - LF
Jose Lopez - 2B	Mark Teixeira - 1B
Ken Griffey Jr. - LF	Alex Rodriguez - 3B
Mike Sweeney - DH	Robinson Cano - 2B
Franklin Gutierrez - CF	Jorge Posada - C
Chris Woodward - 3B	Hideki Matsui - DH
Kenji Johjima - C	Nick Swisher - RF
Ronny Cedeno - SS	Melky Cabrera - CF