Before the draft, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus wrote a provocative article about the draft with this simple motto as its raison d'etre: "Any lottery team that uses a top five pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft on Gabriel Landeskog will be making a mistake of significant magnitude." I can't pretend I disagreed, and since my favorite team also had a top five pick in last year's draft, I too was of the anyone-but-Landeskog camp. His statistics in junior showed a player who lacked top-end skill, and I find it's better to trust the numbers than scouts.

While I still feel that way about numbers vs. scouts, I don't know if I still feel that way about Landeskog, and I'll say why after the jump.

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Remember July 1s of years past? A cool glass of lemonade and a computer with Internet access would be all you needed to laugh yourself silly. 'That team really signed that guy for that much?' Who can forget where they were when they heard about Bobby Holik, Bill Guerin, or Curtis Joseph on July 1, 2002? These guys would become the highest paid players on their teams. However, we're seeing a trend in the NHL lately - teams are being much shrewder about handing out a gigantic, cap-crippling contract. Evidence after the jump.

Anyone paying attention to the NHL in recent years has noticed the trend to hand out contracts with smaller cap hits that end roughly when your unconceived child goes to college. Let's look at some NHL contracts and when they end:

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(Cross-posted from Driving Play)

Discussions that bash enforcers are the lowest hanging fruit in the hockey blogosphere. If you're reading this, you either think that A: having an enforcer on your team is dumb or B: I or anyone else is dumb for suggesting otherwise . It's tough to not think either A or B if you expose yourself to any talk about hockey.

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Full disclosure: I'm not an Oilers fan. I have, however, become all too aware of the Oilers over recent years because of their intelligent and passionate fan base - if I want to read smart writing on hockey, places like here and mc79hockey and Irreverent Oiler Fans is where I've got to go. These places feature endless ranting about the Oilers' current management, most of which is completely justified. Yet I've come here not to bury Steve Tambellini and Kevin Lowe, nor to praise them; I will defend their management strategy even if it is terrible at the margins. There are plenty of debacles and they've all been chronicled here ad infinitum, but there's some good, even if it can't be seen right away. My defense will be based on three things, after the jump:

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We've all seen the winning streaks the Devils have been putting together lately, but the one question on everyone's mind is, can the Devils do anything next year? Or will they just revert to being horrible? Are they out of the woods?

I'm here to say - yes, they will make the playoffs next year. And probably by a wide margin, too.

Vic Ferrari was nice enough to update his timeonice scripts for 2010-11. What we're seeing is rather pleasant.   Under Lemaire, the Devils are at 53.1%. This doesn't sound that impressive, but it's better than most of the NHL. Fenwick at the team level tends to range from 40% to 60%. Since Josefson's callup in February, the Devils are at 54.1% (though this may have more to do with the Devils' trailing in games lately, it's still a good sign). The Devils are at 55.1% with the score tied under Lemaire, which is close to dominant. For reference, last season the Devils were at 52.1% with the score tied.

So I started looking for teams that Fenwick'd over 53% who missed the playoffs - I could only find a few at or near that number, most of whom were done in by terrible goaltending. Fenwick data only goes back to 2007-08, but here's what I found:

2009-10: Toronto (52.9%)
2007-08: Columbus (52.6%)
2010-11: St. Louis (52.5%)
2010-11: New Jersey (52.3%)
2010-11: Calgary (52.2%)
2007-08: Carolina (52.0%)

Teams Over 53% Since 2007-08:

2007-08:

DET: 59.0%
NYR: 55.3%
WSH: 55.1%
S.J: 55.0%

2008-09:

DET: 56.1%
CHI: 54.9%
WSH: 54.8%
S.J: 54.6%
CGY: 53.8%

2009-10:

CHI: 58.0%
DET: 53.1%

2010-11:

CHI: 53.4%
TB: 53.1%
DET: 53.1%

That looks pretty darn close to a list of the best teams in the league each year, no?

I am not saying that if you Fenwick over 53% you are guaranteed to make the playoffs. Far from it. Just that teams that do manage that, tend to make the playoffs. And the higher the percentage is, the more likely that is. And the higher the percentage, the more dominant the team tends to be. As a note, the Devils have run into true buzzsaws the last 3 seasons they've made the playoffs, as they've faced these teams:

NYR: 55.3%
CAR: 52.3%
PHI: 51.9%

Oh, and whose name is missing from this post? Who hasn't played at all yet under Lemaire? Zach Parise, who has been one of the best territorial players in the league - his Fenwick percentages the last three years are:

09-10: 55.5%
08-09: 58.4%
07-08: 55.9%

So yeah, expect a return to dominant Devils' hockey next season.

During my hockey-watching lifetime, I've usually pitied the Islanders.  They've not won a playoff round since I started seriously the following the game in the winter of 1995.  Yet it's hard not to feel like they are somewhat kindred spirits - a team with a proud tradition of winning and a proud tradition of hating the Rangers.  Even through the innumerable fiascoes they've suffered - John Spano, Mike Milbury, Alexei Yashin, Kirk Muller, Rick DiPietro, Garth Snow, the list goes on - it's hard not to feel sorry for Isles fans.  This season more so, as it feels like someone has mistakenly replaced the Devils' season with an Islanders one - now those of us newer fans know how it feels.

All of this is a long preamble to a post about the dire straits the Islanders are in.  They stink even worse than the Devils, somehow.  Their owner has given up on finding them an adequate arena in the Long Island area.  All they are looking to do is to save money.   Brian Rolston provides them a way to save quite a bit next season.

If the Islanders acquire Brian Rolston on waivers, they will end up paying approximately 3.3 million dollars to him this season.  This doesn't sound like a good way to save money.  However, the Islanders still have some assets lying around that they may want to trade.  Rolston's presence enables them to trade these players without hitting the salary floor.  Right now, according to capgeek, the Islanders are at 43.4M in total salary.  While it's unclear to me exactly how the salary floor operates, the floor is thought to be around 43M.  They have some desirable UFA players, including James Wisniewski, Matt Moulson, and Dwayne Roloson.  These players may not want to be on Long Island next season, so GM Garth Snow should be looking to rent them out.  However, he may struggle to find matching contracts to come back to Long Island, as he must stay above the salary floor.

Surely at this moment the astute reader is nodding along while thinking, 'But wait a second Triumph44, there's lots of horrendous contracts around the league that the Islanders could pick up if they asked for them.  Why would they take on this particular contract?'

The Islanders currently have 11 players under contract for next season totaling $24M.  The salary cap floor is expected to be around $45M.  That's $21M in salaries that they will have to find lying around.  There's a few players they have signed to entry level deals who can eat up some space.  However, they will be hard pressed to hit that floor without signing some outrageous contracts, and it's not like there are many players who want to sign with the Islanders.  This is where Rolston comes in - because he's 35+, his cap hit counts regardless of whether he's playing for the Islanders or not!  The Islanders can buy his contract out over the summer.  They would save $1.68 million dollars with this buyout, because Rolston's full cap hit would still count while the Islanders would only have to pay Rolston 2/3rds of his original salary.

It's a bit of a pipe dream.  Still, it might make fiscal sense.  Hopefully Garth Snow is thinking about this issue along them lines.

Ilya Kovalchuk's rank in on-ice even strength shooting percentage since 2007-08.  On-ice shooting percentage is of course, the percentage of shots that go in while a certain player is on the ice.

2007-08 (min 40 GP):  5th

2008-09 (min 40 GP):  12th

2009-10 (min 40 GP):  11th

2010-11 (min 20 GP):  427th

I'm totally at a loss to explain this.  His game cannot have changed that much.

Editor's Note: If I had a nickel for every time I heard some variation of, "Oh, no, the other team has their backup in net, the Devils always make their backups look great," I'd have tens of dollars. I really appreciated that triumph looked at the data to see whether there's any actual basis behind such statements. Hence, it's on the front page.

It's a prevailing belief among die-hard NHL fans that their team struggles with 'unknown' goalies.  I have seen Devils fans express this thought many times over the years, especially when one of these goalies is facing the Devils that very night.  "Time to make this guy look like [insert Hall-of-Fame level goalie]', they'll say.  I decided to see whether there is any truth to this belief, at least for Devils fans.  As it turns out, there is some - not enough for me to dismiss the prevailing belief as warrantless.

I decided to investigate every game the Devils had played against goalies with fewer than 50 NHL regular season games and fewer than 3 full NHL seasons under their belt, so long as they were still 'unknown' (e.g. Cam Ward after he won the Conn Smythe is hardly an unknown).   Here are the results - apologies if this is difficult to read, it's a pain to make these.  I also may have missed a few games, as finding this information at hockey-reference is somewhat tedious.

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Editor's Note: This kind of qualitative analysis is not only well done, but deserves to be on the front page.

Ilya Kovalchuk has struggled scoring goals ever since coming to New Jersey.  His shooting percentage in New Jersey is well below his career average.  In cursory glances at other players in Kovalchuk's class as pure goal scorers who changed teams mid-career - Selanne, Hull, Esposito, Bure, etc. - I can find no real comparable.  Is Kovalchuk doomed to shoot around 10% as a Devil?  Is there something we're missing?

I decided to look at video of all of Kovalchuk's even-strength goals as a Thrasher from the 08-09 and 09-10 seasons.  I was looking for four things - was the goal scored off the rush, or as a result of sustained pressure?  Was the goal a wrist shot, slap shot, tip-in, or what?  Was it a one-timer or not?  And lastly, was the goal scored off a backup goaltender or a starting goaltender?  I think the last question is important.  I didn't really define 'backup' - for instance, Kovalchuk scored one goal off JS Giguere, then one off Jonas Hiller, but I called them both starters.  However, I called Vesa Toskala a backup.  That was somewhat arbitrary, but being rigorous would only change 2 or 3 characterizations at most.

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There has been a longstanding debate at ILWT ever since Kovalchuk got signed for the first time in July - we've all narrowed down the possibilities and we have been saying that one of Brian Rolston or Dainius Zubrus should be somehow disposed of.  The problems with Brian Rolston are well-documented - he has a no-trade, and his contract is for far too much money.  That is all true - however, I have been arguing for a re-entry waiving of Brian Rolston.  Undertaking this procedure would leave the Devils with 2.53 million dollars in additional dead cap space for the next two seasons.  This, plus moving Bryce Salvador, would enable the Devils to get under the cap and ice essentially any team they wish with the players they currently possess.  I'll save everyone the CapGeek paste - just rest assured that it's more than possible.

The reason I think Dainius Zubrus should be kept, at least for now, is his versatility.  There's a lot of claims that players like Adam Henrique, Jacob Josefson, or Mattias Tedenby can pick up the slack for any potential departed players, but as Derek Zona showed over at Copper and Blue, forwards this age aren't particularly successful.  Rather than expose these players to the difficulties of NHL play, I think all three should be given significant time in the AHL to develop.  The Devils have enough injury-prone players (Zubrus, Arnott, Elias, and Langenbrunner have all tended to miss parts of seasons) where getting these players NHL ice time, should they merit it, will not be a problem.  

The Devils have a number of forwards on the cusp of the NHL; these include, in addition to the above-listed players, Alex Vasyunov, Nick Palmieri, David McIntyre, and perhaps Nathan Perkovich.  I am not saying that all of these players will make the NHL.  However, I think it likely that at least two of Josefson, Henrique, McIntyre, Palmieri, Tedenby, Vasyunov, and Perkovich will be ready for the NHL in 2011-12.  I am not sure that any of them will be ready for NHL play this coming season.  Thus we could use this lineup in 2010-11:

Parise-Zajac-Langenbrunner

Kovalchuk-Arnott-Elias

Zharkov-Zubrus-Clarkson

Leblond-X-Pelley

What if one of Henrique or Josefson impresses enough to stay at center in the NHL this season?  Then the Devils can move Zubrus to left wing, and bump Zharkov down to the 4th line - injuries would soon crop up that put Zharkov in the top 9.  Zubrus himself would be an adequate injury fill in for anyone in the top six as well, saving a rookie that possible duty.

Next season, however, things look different; Parise needs a new contract, and both Arnott and Langenbrunner are UFA.  If we ditch Zubrus there, after hopefully inflating his value a tad with a season at center, we get this:

Parise-Zajac-Palmieri

Kovalchuk-Josefson-Elias

Zharkov-Henrique-Clarkson

Leblond-X-Pelley

Assuming a lineup with Andy Greene signed at 3.5 million a season, and Zach Parise at 8.5 million a season (what I think is both player's absolute top end for new contracts), and Vladimir Zharkov signed for 1 million, this team with 11 forwards, 4 defenseman, and 1 goalie, costs 54.6 million dollars.  This is plenty of room for the additional 2 forwards, 3 defensemen, and a backup goaltender needed to fill out a roster, especially when many of these players should be from our own farm system and should therefore be quite inexpensive.  We could even add one of Arnott or Langenbrunner back if they were willing to stay for a significant discount from their current prices, which given that both players are older than 35, shouldn't be too difficult.

In short, I think the first lineup is far superior to a lineup with Rolston and without Zubrus.  We would likely have to protect a Henrique or Josefson line if we had one this season, hurting the team overall, and there's no guarantees that even if those rookies maintained their play for much of the season, that they could maintain it in the playoffs.  Having a line that was at a significant disadvantage territorially this past season was a giant Achilles' heel that only got worse as the season progressed - I do not want to see a repeat of that debacle this season.