I think in many ways, that this statistic sums up the season: when the Brewers give up five runs or less they are 46-21 versus a record of 12-38 when they give up six or more runs.....Jason Kendall reamains on-pace to post the lowest slugging percentage (currently .279) seen in the National League in 14 years, although his big fly in Houston a week ago set him back from challenging Ivan DeJesus' 1981 mark of .233, the worst SLG% seen in the majors in the past 70 years.  Given that even a 2-homer day and 8 RBI in his last three starts couldn't secure Rivera the regular catching gig, it looks like JK will get the PT to keep the dream alive.....Let's turn now to Manny Parra.  He's thrown 107 2/3 innings and has a 1.84 WHIP.  In the entire history of the National League, that's only been done ten times and Manny's just the third guy since 1930 to get so many chances with so little in the way of results.  One more win and he will also be alone in the NL's  8 wins with a 1.80+ WHIP club.

I was shocked to see Ned Yost ranked #3 on a list of most effective managers in today's Wall Street Journal.  The ratings were based on percentage of close games won, actual versus pythagorean record and whether they players they inherit do better or worse than they did elsewhere.  

I guess that's why they specialize in business news and not sports.  

Here's the article:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120665826242870009.html?mod=at_leisure_main_reviews_days_only

I was curious how Yovani has performed in starts where the oppostion has never faced him before versus those where it has seen him.  It's a small sample, but here are the results:

8 starts where Yovani is being faced for the first time:  4-1 record, 3.48 ERA

3 starts where the opposition has seen him before:  1-2, 12.86 ERA

I thought that was interesting but hope the trend does not continue this Thursday as YoGa has seen the Cubs before, when he had a W snatched away by Ramirez's walk-off homer.

Someone commented that Rowand isn't all that great...and the numbers show that he underperformed Jenkins last year:

Jenks 484 ABs, .271, 17 HR, 70 RBI, .357 OBP, .434 SLG

Rowand  405 ABs, .262, 12 HR, 47 RBI, .321 OBP, .425 SLG

Now, Rowand was probably hitting sixth or seventh most of the year, plays a terrific CF and steals a few bases...but his OBP/power numbers are pretty weak.  

My favorite idea thus far was the Mench/Gross platoon.  Once Mench adjusts to the NL pitchers, perhaps he will show some real improvement in his numbers.  This is also a cheap option that will allow us to spend money elsewhere.

Maybe the O's will take Jenkins for Lopez??

To follow up on the previous diary of possible brewer free agent pick-ups, I offer the following thoughts & ideas...

Ted Lilly is a great idea, but I keep reading about how he's going to be one of the most expensive free agents out there due to his "great stuff" (a la AJ Burnett).  Seems an unlikely Melvin target if that's the case.

Vicente Padilla is a great call, due to the AL-to-NL improvement effect so well-illustated by guys like Arroyo and Chris Young last year.  Coming from a hitter's park in Texas to the NL should be worth a half-run a game for starters.  

Adam Eaton is another ex-Ranger who could help.  Some risk due to health and age, but worth it if the price is right.

But...these are the two guys I'd like to see us go after the most...

Kenny Lofton would be my #1 choice for a Brewer free agent signing.  Remember when Sal Bando made a him a blockbuster offer and he almost joined the club?  That's got to be good for our karma.  Sure, he's 39, but he hit .301 with 32 steals, 41 rbi and a .360 OBP last year.  The prior year, he would have won the batting title with his .335 average (but had just 367 abs)and had a .392 OBP and 22 steals.  Because he's old and relatively unappreciated (he's been on eight teams in the last six seasons), the Crew could probably lock him up with a 2-year deal (maybe $3 m per?) and a guarantee of the starting CF job in 2007.  Then we could deal some combination of Mench, Clark and Jenkins and play or platoon the guys we don't trade in RF.

Bengie Molina is my #2 favorite choice for a Brewer FA signing.  I fear he may be too expensive, but love the idea of getting a two-time gold glove winner who's averaged .285 with 15 HRs and 65 Rbis over the past four years.  I know he's 32, but with him catching 110-120 games and Damian catching 40-50, we'd turn catcher into a position of strength.

Think about this potential opening day lineup:

cf Lofton
ss Hardy
2b Weeks
1b Fielder
3b Hall
rf Jenkins/Mench (or lf Hart)
lf Hart (or rf Clark)
c Molina
p Sheets

I love it!

The next six months don't have to be a downer for Brewers fans...here's my roadmap for moves the Brewers could probably make (if they so desired) and the ensuing opening day 2007 roster that would result from them...

October 2006 -- Yost thanked for bringing the club back to respectability, but fired.  Robin Yount hired as new Crew manager.

November 2006 -- Yount retains most of exisitng staff, but brings on Paul Molitor as hitting/baserunning coach.  Wynegar fired.

December 2006 -- Melvin trades Mench to the Twins for Carlos Silva.  The salaries match, Silva should benfit from a move to the NL; the Twins coveted Mench earlier. The Crew also bites the bullet and releases Kolb.

December 2006 -- Melvin trades Tomo Ohka to Colorado for Yorvit Torreabla and a AA-level minor leaguer.  Rockies moving to Chris Ianetta behind the dish; Torrealba offers a .440 SLG PCT, good defense and relative youth (he's 28).
Alternatively, we could trade for one of Pittsburgh's young catchers Paulino and Doumit.

January 2007 -- Melvin trades Doug Davis to the Phillies for Pat Burrell.  

March 2007 -- Another Melvin waiver wire pickup impresses in spring traing and makes the squad in long relief.

April 2007 -- The Brewers open the season with the following lineup:

2b  Weeks
ss  Hardy
1b  Fielder
lf  Burrell
3b  Hall
cf  Hart
rf  Jenkins/Clark (platoon)
c   Miller/Torrealba
p   Sheets

Bench:  Gross, Graffanino, Koskie, Cirillo (or Rottino).  Nice balance of lefties/righties and lots of versatility here.

Starters: Sheets, Capuano, Bush, Silva, Villanueva

Long & middle relief: Capellan, Turnbow, mystery waiver wire pickup
Set-up:  Wise, Shouse
Closer: Cordero

This squad looks good.  And we have Gwynn Jr, Braun, Gallardo(maybe) as potential mid-season call-ups should something go wrong.  

I know I still have Turnbow and Jenkins in there, but it seemed like too much of a fanatsy to be able to trade them...

Nelson Cruz went berzerk for Texas yesterday, belting a couple of homers and knocking in five.  Mench-for-Cruz would look like a nice deal right now...

Also, I heard a rumor that the Brewers soured on Cruz because he was an avid recreational drug user...has anyone else heard that???  

whatever's he's been smoking lately, the brewers hitters should get themselves some...

In deep thought following the discussion of the outfield logjam, I decided to put together my wish list opening day roster for 2007.  

Lineup -- Ryan Braun is coming, Koskie is here; barring another JJ setback, let's get Billy Hall in CF sooner rather than later...

2b Weeks
ss Hardy
1b Fielder
cf Hall
3b Koskie
lf Mench / Jenkins
rf Hart
c  Miller

Bench -- this looks like one of the better Brewer benches we've seen in awhile. And defintely the most expensive. Trading one or more of: Jenkins, Mench, Clark (preferably for pitching or catching) and calling up Gwynn would be ideal.

I like Gross; he's a lefty, a decent pinch-hitter, has some pop and comes cheap.  

Cirillo
Graffanino
Mench / Jenkins
Gross
Clark
Rivera

Since there's been a lot of talk about 2007, I am wondering who everyone thinks would be a good candidate to manage the Crew and/or if there is a consensus to get rid of Ned.  While he can be stubborn at times and has surely cost us a few games sticking with guys who are scuffling, I have a soft spot for Nedley since he seems to continually get the team to rally when they are down, be it a come-from-behind home victory or a win to halt a losing streak.  Save for one stretch in June, this team has avoided long losing streaks and you could say Ned is doing a fair job as the Crew's win total has been well above its Pythagorean expected total for most of the year.  I can't think of a candidate that's a slam-dunk to manage the Crew, anyway.  Yount?  Lacks any managerial experience.  Frank Kremblas?  Any ideas?

Time for a break from all of the Mench-induced despair...

Here are a few hypothetical scenarios for you to consider if you were Melvin...some have been created without any type of rumor-based substantiation..but all seem at least plausible.  If these were your only options, what would you have done?

*****************

[editor's note, by Jeff] If this is true, it ought to be up top. Here's the link.

...with Nelson Cruz and a player to be named later for Kevin Mench, Francisco Cordero and Laynce Nix.

This seems like a decent deal for the Crew; not sure I see the need for Mench with Corey Hart waiting in the wings.  I also would have preferred to see us pick up some pitching prospects.

It's interesting to note that the Brewers, at
-62, have the third-worst run differential in MLB, ahead of only the Cubbies and the Royals.  That the Crew has coaxed a .500 record out of that appears to be a testament to their coaching & clutch hitting, although some stat gurus would note that this suggests the Brewers are overachieving and not as good as their record indicates, citing "pythagorean" win totals and the such.  But, it certainly appears as if this year's team has the killer instinct needed to win close games.  Perhaps we will set a new franchise record for winning percentage in one-run games...