SB Nation User Blog: Truzenzuzex

Kentucky Basketball: UConn in the Rear-View Mirror

Truzenzuzex — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 23:51:31 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Eric Bledsoe can jump a little ...

Looking back on last night, I think it will be most remembered as the night John Wall stormed the country and became the new Kevin Durant. I honestly wish that had not happened, but it was all too predictable. Now, we will have to listen to endless stories about Wall, when what I want to hear about is the team -- you know, that name that starts with a "K" and ends with a "Y" that is writ large across the front of every jersey on the team, including John Wall. I notice Wall's name is no bigger, his jersey no finer, and his shorts do not seem to be put on by servant girls. Let's keep that in mind.

Here at A Sea of Blue, we are going to fight through all this Wall hype and keep the team in mind. Yes, we should and will praise John when he plays great, critique him when he plays poorly, and pretty much treat him just like every other member of the team. I'm confident he would expect nothing less, and unless I woke up on some other planet, basketball is still a team sport.

As usual when I have time after a game, we are going to look at the results of yesterday's contest and see what enlightenment, if any, the cold, hard mathematical facts can show us. Stats, of course, are not the be-all and end-all of basketball, it is a complex sport that has a lot of variables that statistics cannot account for -- kind of like the weather. It isn't quite a chaos system like weather, but sometimes, you would think it was.

So let's see what the numbers tell us. Follow me across the jump.

First of all, we will examine the Four Factors to Winning in basketball:

NCAA Basketball Stats

What do we see here? Well, UConn won all but one of the four factors to winning, and lost. "How can that happen!", you say? "What do the Four Factors mean if you can lose three and still win?" Well, the explanation is simple.

Let's take a look at the basic team stats, and see if something doesn't suggest itself:

Basic Team Stats

Stat	Game		Season Avg		Opp Season Avg
Stat
Points	64	61	79	75	64	65
FG Att	64	51	57	57	59	64
FG Made	25	23	28	26	22	23
FG Pct	39.1	45.1	49.2	46.3	37.7	36.9
FT Att	17	24	25	27	17	15
FT Made	11	14	16	18	11	10
FT Pct	64.7	58.3	66.7	68.3	66.5	70.0
3pt FG Att	12	6	16	10	21	20
3pt FG Made	3	1	5	3	7	6
3pt FG Pct	25.0	16.7	36.8	33.8	35.0	33.1
Rebounds	34	42	44	47	36	41
Off Rebs	15	15	14	14	13	14
Def Rebs	19	27	26	28	19	21
Team Rebs	3	4	2	5	3	4
Assists	9	11	15	15	11	11
Steals	13	3	7	7	7	7
Blocks	6	8	8	9	3	4
Turnovers	14	20	17	14	15	13
Fouls	23	18	16	15	21	22

Anything jump out at you? Several things jump out at me, but the first and most important (and you have heard me harp on this before) is shot attempts. UK got 13 more shots on goal than UConn did, and the eFG% difference is just under 5% (4.7, to be exact). How did UK get all those extra shots? Turnovers, mostly. UK only had 14, and even though Wall had 7 himself, 14 turnovers is not that bad. Also, notice that most of UConn's turnovers came off Kentucky steals, i.e. "live" turnovers that tend to lead to baskets. I don't have a points off turnovers stat for this game, but I have no doubt UK won that statistic by a wide margin. As an aside, Wall managed six of those steals, which makes up for his seven turnovers.

But the other difference was free throw percentage. Despite getting seven more attempts, the Huskies shot almost 6.5% worse. Making three more free throws would have got them to overtime. Making four would have won the game.

I always like to look at some trends, and here is the first one that ought to warm the cockles of your heart:

Several of our members, including me, have been complaining about excess turnovers. Well, we are seeing progress in that area, and that is one problem that appears to be on it's way to normalization. UK is now turning the ball over less than its opponents, which of course is a very good thing. Right now, the trend is nicely downward, but it will likely flatten out a bit due to the youth of the team.

Let's look at another encouraging trend:

UK's steals% is on a nice upward trend as well. The combination of reduced turnovers and increased steals is a very potent offensive force, since steals represent "live" turnovers, and Kentucky is really good at converting open-court "live" turnovers into points. That's a really underrated skill of this team, and it deserves more attention.

That should be enough for now. Every time I do one of these, we'll examine some different trends of different stats, and hopefully, we can weave it all into a coherent picture of... well, okay, of victory!

The Big Blue Daily Mail -- Post-UConn Edition

Truzenzuzex — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 13:05:39 -0000

We'll have a look back at the UConn game a bit later, but I just wanted to get you up to date on the news, which has lagged a bit due to the pace of the season and my busy schedule.

Obviously, most of this is hyperbole directed at John Wall, but it's always fun to read. It pleases me no end to avenge the 2006 loss to the Huskies, even if the game was anything but a thing of beauty.

The news follows the jump.

Sprints Is Not Surprised that Tennessee Is Under Investigation // 12.10.09 - Team Speed Kills
Team Speed Kills considers it an inevitability, and I suppose it is with all the secondary violations the team had to admit earlier this year. Is it just me, or does this look somehow like UT was running a brothel to aid their recruiting? I'm sure that's not the case, but if I were a late-night comedian, I would be having a field day with this.
Rush The Court " Blog Archive " ATB: John Wall is College Basketball
John Wall (25/2/6 stls) scored twelve of the last fifteen points of the game for his team, and as our RTC Live correspondent Ballin is a Habit put it at the game, "Garden security should kidnap Wall and throw a Nate Robinson jersey on him. Who will know?"

Heh. Indeed.
Rush The Court " Blog Archive " Morning Five: 12.10.09 Edition
Memphis filed an appeal against the NCAA’s decision to vacate its 2008 season based on the Derrick Rose SAT scandal, even with the distinct possibility that the school could face a harsher punishment than currently imposed if they did so. We’re not really keen on the NCAA Committee on Infractions using this heavyhanded method of leverage to try to force schools to swallow their initial decision just because they said so. Memphis correctly argued that this creates a "chilling effect" for schools that wish to use their legal right to appeal, and even cited language from a 2001 case against UNLV to that effect. We’re starting to wonder if someone at the NCAA lost a lot of money on Memphis that season, because this is taking the appearance of vindictiveness.

Indeed it is. Somebody needs to explain to the Committee on Infractions that they are making the NCAA look like Tomás de Torquemada.
" BBL: Wall wows a Madison Square Garden party John Clay’s Sidelines
John Clay's Big Blue Links.
UK beats UConn as Wall takes over | KentuckySports.com
Liggins at home

UK sophomore DeAndre Liggins did not make the trip. He also did not travel to Mexico for the Cancun Challenge.

What does this mean? I don't know.
John Wall is one tough Cat; late heroics lift Kentucky basketball past UConn 64-61 | courier-journal.com | The Courier-Journal
Jay-Z was nowhere to be seen. Spike Lee apparently was absent. There was no sign of Woody Allen courtside Wednesday night in Madison Square Garden. Still, "The World's Most Famous Arena" didn't lack for star power in the University of Kentucky's 64-61 win over Connecticut in the SEC/Big East Challenge.
John Clay: Big stage exactly where Wall belongs | KentuckySports.com
And down low, the Huskies gashed Kentucky on the glass 26-14 in the first 20 minutes. The Huskies taught the Cats a thing or two.

Ah, but the Cats showed they can be quick learners. Kentucky learned how to take a punch, even on the biggest stage, the one where they used to hold all those classic heavyweight fights.

Just barely quick enough.
Dana O'Neil: Too much hype? John Wall is well worth it - ESPN
If there was a halfcourt offense being run by either team, it was well-disguised.

Truth, forsooth.
In crunch time, Calipari not afraid to go to the Wall - NCAA Division I Mens Basketball - CBSSports.com
You want a crazy statistic?

Consider that Wall has played eight games and scored key points in the final minute to help win four of them. Some great college players will go entire careers without doing that. But Wall has already hit a game-winning jumper to beat Miami of Ohio, hit a pull-up jumper followed by free throws with 0.5 seconds remaining to force overtime in an eventual victory against Stanford, made two free throws with 4.3 seconds remaining to secure a win over North Carolina, and converted an I-can't-believe-he-just-made-that three-point play with 30.8 seconds remaining to beat UConn.

If it sounds amazing, that's because it is amazing.

If he sounds awesome, that's because he is awesome.

I think he's said it all.

Kentucky 64, Connecticut 61 -- Postmortem

Truzenzuzex — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:50:40 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Josh Harrellson made one good play tonight, and this is it.

Browse more photos »

What. A. Game.

We may be saying that a lot this year. I have no idea why, but at no time during this game did I ever worry about losing. Why? I can only suppose that perhaps John Wall is the reincarnation of the Buddha, and all I can think of is Zen.

Great effort by the Connecticut Huskies. They were what we knew they would be -- tough and determined. Jerome Dyson was incredible, Kemba Walker was amazing, Gavin Edwards outplayed everybody on both teams -- except one. John Wall. The Huskies were awesome, just amazing, but not amazing enough this time.

For Kentucky, well, we saw exactly what John Calipari implied we should see -- a really bad team having really good stretches because of their talent. Once again, UK had one more good stretch in this game than the opponent, a now-familiar theme for the 2009 Wildcats.

I have to confess, I really wanted Calipari to go zone. But as he has said, and perhaps I should acquiesce to (not a chance), "I am the coach, let me do my job." Okay, Coach, but forgive me if I sit in my armchair and disagree. It's what we do here in the Bluegrass State, and if you are going to kanoodle the job here at Kentucky, this is just another part of what you have so enthusiastically embraced. Deal with it.

Moving along, I was not concerned going in down six to the Huskies at the half. I want to stop right there and ask you all, ladies and gentlemen of the Big Blue Nation -- when was the last time you could have imagined that we could go into half time down six points versus the UConn Huskies in Madison Square Garden and not be concerned? It has been a very, very long time, certainly the better part of a decade at least. That, in and of itself, is a wonderful thing.

More after the jump.

Here are the things that jump out at me:

Bad Cuz, Good Cuz, all in the same game. Nothing to see here. Move along.
John Wall. Well, what can you say? He was pretty good, but then, he always is. But he had a stretch in the first half where he looked very much like the freshman he is.
Patrick Patterson -- Warrior of warriors. I have no idea how severe his ankle sprain is, but I get the impression he would have gone back in with a compound fracture -- he was going to make sure this game was won, and physical maladies be damned. And largely because of his leadership, the 'Cats did win.
Eric Bledsoe had an off night, particularly defensively. It wasn't lack of effort, really, just lack of experience. He will get a lot better, and his effort was very good.
Darius Miller just took a step back tonight. He didn't look confident, his shot was flat, and the more he missed, the worse he played. But he had a great game defensively against Stanley Robinson, who was almost never a factor.
Darnell Dodson made a couple of big shots, but he played abysmally overall, particularly on defense. He is much better than that.
Daniel Orton did what he always does -- play harder than anybody. This time, he fouled out. He will have better days, and this day was better than it looked.
Ramon Harris is such a great effort player, but he sure does need some kind of offensive game. Big free throw at the end, though. And a ton of rebounds.
Josh Harrellson made one good play and then laid down flat. C'mon, Josh, you can do this.
Perry Stevenson gave some good minutes, and did what he was in there to do.
Are the oddsmakers any good or what? They had UK +2. Scary.
That 12-0 run showed what could happen, just like the 28-2 run last week did. If the 'Cats can ever learn to sustain the effort, look out Indianapolis.
Calipari did a great job. Then again, John Wall can make an average coach look like a genius. Fortunately, he didn't have to tonight.
Where the heck did our offensive rebounding go? On vacation to Hawaii, apparently.

That's it. It's late. I'm finishing up a taste of Four Roses for a nightcap. Up next -- the Hoosiers.

Kentucky Wildcats @ Connecticut Huskies -- Open Game Thread

Truzenzuzex — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 23:29:45 -0000

This is the official A Sea of Blue Open Game Thread for the Kentucky Wildcats at the Connecticut Huskies tonight in the Big East-SEC Invitational. Particulars are as follows:

Date & Time Weds., Dec. 9, 9:30 p.m
Coverage TV: ESPN Radio: BBSN
Online Audio
Online Video via ESPN360
Location Madison Square Garden New York, N.Y.

John Calipari's young charges take on Jim Calhoun's talented and experienced Huskies tonight in one of the most legendary basketball fora in the nation. This will be a big early-season test for Kentucky.

More after the jump.

John Calipari and Jim Calhoun have an acrimonious relationship that festered in the days of Calipari's stay at UMass. There are no real signs from either coach that they wish to discontinue the rivalry, so I am sure that Calipari would very much like to coach his team to victory, perhaps a bit more than usual. Particularly in the Garden. And it should be delicious again. I'll bet "Johnny Clam Chowder can't wait.

So anyway, let's look at what UK needs to win:

John Wall to be John Wall. But he needs to cut down turnovers.
Get the ball to Patrick Patterson. A lot.
DeMarcus Cousins to play to a higher level than versus the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Continued solid three-point shooting.
Continued great rebounding.

For UConn, they need the following:

Somebody to stay in front of Wall at all times.
Much better offensive rebounding than they have been doing for most of the season.
Strong play out of their less-heralded players.
Prevent UK from running too much.
Get good looks inside, and make the threes they take.

UConn isn't quite as talented or as deep as North Carolina, but they are a solid, deep basketball team with two really good guards. They are much more than good enough to hand Kentucky their first loss, and if UK doesn't bring their "A" game, it will most likely happen.

Go, 'CATS!

John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus on John Wall I would suppose that most people think of...

Truzenzuzex — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 21:27:52 -0000

John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus on John Wall

I would suppose that most people think of Basketball Prospectus as a fairly analytical and level-headed neck of the online woods. Most people would be wrong! We can swoon like giddy adolescents with the best of them. If you don’t believe me, you weren’t tracking the Twitter feed of my Prospectus colleague Kevin Pelton during Kentucky’s 68-66 win over North Carolina in Lexington on Saturday: "Watching John Wall is turning me into Dick Vitale. I’m gushing. ‘Look at the vision! Are you kidding me?!?!’"

You must read this. Great article by a great author.

Basketball Prospectus | Articles | How Good is John Wall?

Kentucky @ UConn: Pre-Game Analysis

Truzenzuzex — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:35:30 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

Which DeMarcus Cousins will show up tonight?

Browse more photos »

Tonight, the Kentucky Wildcats will face the Connecticut Huskies in Madison Square Garden in the SEC-Big East Invitational.

Kentucky has only played UConn twice in its history, the first time being back in 2006 where the #2 ranked Huskies defeated Kentucky 87-83 in a closer than expected game.

This time, the Wildcats are ranked #4 in the land by the AP and the coaches, and UConn is ranked #14 and #12, respectively. Because of the proximity of Madison Square Garden to UConn, they will be the home team for this contest.

The Huskies are fairly young, but not nearly as young as the Wildcats. As far as experience goes, this UConn team is similar to the North Carolina Tar Heels. Also similar to the Tar Heels, this UConn team has plenty of size, and is also one of the few teams that can match up with the Wildcats on the front line. The interesting thing is, UConn can also match up with UK in the back court, size-wise.

The Huskies are 6-1 coming into this game, and Kentucky 8-0, but there is no doubt who has played the more difficult schedule of the two. Even with the addition of the UNC game, Kentucky has played far weaker opponents than UConn, who has played a good Hofstra team, LSU, and Duke. In fact, the Huskies lost to Duke by 9 in a game that saw them turn the ball over almost twice as many times as the Blue Devils, and get handled on the offensive glass to boot.

But UConn also thrashed LSU in a game in which their two starting guards looked like John Wall on the loose, making shots, dunks and layups from everywhere.

More after the jump.

Four Factors Analysis

As before, we will analyze what the results of this display means in detail. Please note that we won't be doing this for every single game this year, because creating all this is quite a bit of work. But particularly for the big games, you'll be getting this display and a detailed analysis of what it means.

First off, we notice that offensively, UConn is simply not as efficient as Kentucky. Much of that efficiency, though, can be attributed to the Wildcats' weak schedule, but even against the Tar Heels, you can see that UK's offensive efficiency is significantly higher than UConn's has been in their last three games.

Defensively, the teams are much closer, essentially mirror images of each other if you discount the first game or two of the season. If all is taken into consideration, UConn is somewhat better in DE, but I think that is mostly a result of their better defensive start and a tribute to the fact that they have a couple of seniors in the starting lineup.

Moving on to the Four Factors themselves, you will note that UK is more efficient offensively, a better offensive rebounding team and about the same when it comes to free-throw rate -- both teams get to the line a lot. UConn is noticeably better when it comes to taking care of the ball, and you can see by the green bar that UK has a long way to go to be top-ten caliber in that department.

Checking out the defense, both teams are decent at holding teams to low percentages with UConn being a bit better than the Cats. Kentucky forces more opponent turnovers and as previously noted, is a better rebounding team. UK does let teams get to the line more often than UConn.

Amazingly, Kentucky is a better three-point shooting team than UConn. The Wildcats figured to be average at best in that stat this year, but Darius Miller and Darnell Dodson, along with Patrick Patterson, have done a good job filling that void. UK also takes more 3-pointers than UConn does, and both teams play at track-meet tempo. No surprise there.

Next, we'll look at the players for the Huskies, and their stats:

Connecticut Huskies Basketball Roster

	#	Pos.	Comments	W	H	College
Kyle Bailey	55	G	-	170	6-3	junior
Donnell Beverly	2	G	-	190	6-4	sophomore
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	4	F	-	210	6-7	freshman
Jerome Dyson	11	G	Starter	190	6-4	senior
Gavin Edwards	33	F	May start	230	6-10	senior
Alex Hornat	22	F	-	205	6-5	senior
Ater Majok	5	F	-	233	6-11	freshman
Jonathan Mandeldove	32	C	-	240	7-0	senior
Charles Okwandu	35	C	May Start	255	7-0	junior
Alex Oriakhi	34	F	Starter	240	6-9	freshman
Stanley Robinson	21	F	Starter	220	6-9	senior
Darius Smith	24	G	-	168	6-1	freshman
Jamaal Trice	13	G	-	220	6-5	freshman
Kemba Walker	15	G	Starter	172	6-1	sophomore

Connecticut Statistics

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Jerome Dyson	7	34.4	6.3	16.4	38.3	1.0	3.9	25.9	6.6	9.0	73.0	1.4	4.1	5.6	5.3	3.0	1.6	1.1	3.1	20.1
Stanley Robinson	7	34.3	6.4	12.0	53.6	0.6	0.9	66.7	2.0	3.6	56.0	2.7	4.4	7.1	1.7	1.4	0.7	1.9	1.1	15.4
Kemba Walker	7	34.0	5.0	11.1	44.9	1.4	2.6	55.6	4.0	5.1	77.8	0.6	2.6	3.1	5.7	3.1	2.7	0.9	1.1	15.4
Gavin Edwards	7	30.3	4.3	6.0	71.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	3.1	95.5	2.3	3.4	5.7	0.6	1.7	1.0	3.3	2.7	11.6
Alex Oriakhi	7	31.4	2.6	5.6	46.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.9	2.1	40.0	3.1	6.6	9.7	0.4	1.4	0.6	1.7	3.1	6.0
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	7	11.7	0.9	3.3	26.1	0.6	2.3	25.0	1.7	2.4	70.6	0.7	1.4	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.1	4.0
Darius Smith	7	5.7	0.4	1.1	37.5	0.1	0.3	50.0	0.7	1.3	55.6	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.4	1.7
Donnell Beverly	7	8.3	0.7	1.7	41.7	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.3	50.0	0.0	1.1	1.1	1.3	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.4	1.6
Charles Okwandu	7	6.4	0.4	0.6	75.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.9	0.7	1.6	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.9	1.9	0.9
Jamaal Trice	6	3.3	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.5	66.7	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.3
Alex Hornat	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kyle Bailey	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Position Analysis: Point guard

The starting point guard for the Huskies is Kemba Walker. Walker was the #5 ranked point guard nationally in 2008 out of New York City, and was heavily recruited by almost everyone. Walker is excellent at getting to the rim as you saw if you watched any of the LSU v. UConn game. Walker simply blew by LSU defenders on the way to 20 points in a blowout win.

Like Larry Drew II of North Carolina, Kemba Walker is knock-down three-point shooter, making 55% of his attempts so far this season. Even though UConn does not shoot a ton of threes, when it is Walker doing the shooting, they normally go in.

The knock on Walker so far has been his inability to avoid turnovers. Even though he is averaging over five assists/game, he is also averaging three turnovers, which is short of the magic 2/1 number. Walker is also a good-but-not-great on-ball defender, and if John Wall is his assignment, that can't be good.

As far as wall is concerned, he is far superior to Walker (and anyone else, for that matter) in speed with the ball in his hands. Walker, like Drew, will struggle to stay in front of John Wall, although Walker is more athletic than Drew. You can be assured that Jim Calhoun will do whatever he can to minimize the chances of Wall's one-man fast breaks.

Advantage: Kentucky

Position Analysis: Shooting guard

Jerome Dyson is the starting shooting guard for the Huskies, and he is a good one. Dyson has good size at 6'4", and has all the experience that being a senior at UConn brings, which includes trips to the Final Four.

Dyson is a nice compliment to Walker in that Dyson is not a true off-guard, but more of a combo guard, and that shows up in his 5 assists/game statistics. Dyson is a very aggressive defender and like Walker, works hard to get to the rim. He has not shot the ball particularly well from the perimeter this year, but he is capable of doing so.

This will be a tough matchup for Eric Bledsoe, as Dyson is explosive off the bounce and has a slight size advantage. Bledsoe plays bigger than he is, which will help, but Dyson will be by far the biggest challenged he has faced, offensively and defensively, this year

Advantage: UConn

Position Analysis: Small Forward

Stanley Robinson is UConn's starter at the small forward spot and the team's leading scorer along with Kemba Walker. Robinson is a senior who, like Dyson, has been there and done that when it comes to big games.

Robinson can do it all -- slash, shoot the three, hit the mid-range shot. Robinson pefers to operate inside and use his almost-power-forward body to post up his foes or muscle them for the put-back. Robinson is a tough, savvy defender and is capable of scoring a lot of points in short order.

Unlike versus Will Graves, Darius Miller will not have a quickness or size advantage on Stanley Robinson. Robinson is an older, wiser, and frankly better version of Miller right now. This matchup will be a huge challenge for Darius Miller on both sides of the ball.

Advantage: UConn

Position analysis: Power Forward

Alex Oriakhi is UConn's starter at the power forward spot. Oriakhi is a freshman from New Hampshire and was ranked as the 21st best power forward in the land by Rivals.com.

Oriakhi is not a big scorer. He is mostly in the game for defense and rebounding, although he is a strong finisher around the rim when he gets the ball in the post. Oriakhi leads UConn in rebounding with 9 per game, and he is also an outstanding post defender.

If Oriakhi winds up going against Patrick Patterson, as I would expect, this is the biggest mismatch problem for UConn. Patterson is much too quick, to strong and too agile for Oriakhi, as well as being far more experienced. Oriakhi does not have either the footspeed nor quickness to stay with Patterson on the break, or if Patrick decides to do his scoring from outside. Inside or out, Oriakhi will have his hands full.

Advantage: Kentucky

Position Analysis: Center

I expect Charles Okwandu to start at center tonight to counter the strength and size of the Wildcats. Okwandu is a junior and has had plenty of experience in Jim Calhoun's system. Okwandu is from Lagos, Nigeria, and although he is very tall and big at 7' and 255#, he is not a particularly good rebounder.

Okwandu is a junior college transfer from Harcum College in Pennsylvania, and is the least highly regarded of all the UConn starters. He is a big body who can take up space, but he isn't much of an offensive threat.

The other possibility is that Gavin Edwards will start. Edwards is a senior from Arizona, and has good size and who would probably play the power forward spot, moving Oriakhi to the center position. Edwards is a skilled post defender and a genuine offensive threat inside. He does not shoot the ball from the perimeter, but is a good leaper and good finisher at the rim. Edwards leads the team in blocked shots at over 3 per game.

No matter who starts, neither of the guys who are likely to wind up in the post are good enough to contain DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins is much to quick and athletic for Okwandu, and is just a better player than Orikahi. But a lot depends on whether or not Bad Cuz shows up.

Advantage: Kentucky

Bench Analysis

Connecticut has a deep, talented bench much like Kentucky, but unlike the Tar Heels, they are much smaller. UConn has plenty of good guards like Donell Beverly and Darius Smith who can come in and spell Walker and Dyson, as well as swing players in Alex Hornat and Jamaal Trice, but nothing special.

Advantage: Draw

Overall analysis

Once again, this is going to be a very fast game, and turnovers loom large again. UConn is not as talented as Kentucky, and their depth is probably no better. The big punch from UConn comes from their guards, who are talented scorers and adept ballhandlers. They have more than enough athleticism to get to the rim on UK, and they shoot very good free throws.

Although UConn plays at a very high tempo, thier big people do not run the floor as well as Kentucky's. This will force Calhoun to be very careful with defensive balance and may force the guards to say away from the glass. Kentucky is the better rebounding team, but sending his guards in to help could be catastrophic with Wall on the floor. Calhoun will also have to very carefully manage the minutes of his big men, as they are not quite as deep across the front line as the Wildcats are.

For Kentucky, guarding the three will be critical in this game. UConn is not a big 3-point shooting team, but that is mostly because they are too big and athletic for most of their opponents. Faced with a team like the Wildcats who are as big and even deeper across the front line, they may well shoot more from the perimeter, and that has been a big weakness of the Wildcats.

Once again, this game is likely to turn on offensive rebounds and turnovers. If UConn can get ten more shots than Kentucky, I expect that they will win this game. Otherwise, I expect Kentucky will.

Projected score: Kentucky 80, UConn 75.

Blogpoll -- Week 14 Draft

Truzenzuzex — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 16:48:29 -0000

It's Blogpoll time again, and here is the draft of my final ballot for the regular season.

As expected, the Alabama Crimson Tide is on top with their somewhat unexpected domination of the Florida Gators in the SEC championship game. I am prepared now to accept the apologia of all those who scoffed at me for keeping them on top in spite of the close game with Auburn.

The Texas Longhorns also manage to win the Big 12 title and joins Alabama in the BCS championship, but it was nothing like the Alabama game. Nebraska really came to play in this one, and nearly threw the BCS into chaos by upsetting the Longhorns.

For those of you wondering if Texas may be overtaken by either Cincinnati or TCU, it is apparent from the numbers in my calculation that could not have happened unless Texas lost. The difference between UC and Texas was quite substantial, although the difference between the Bearcats and TCU is very small.

More after the jump.

My ballot is as follows:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama
2	Texas
3	Cincinnati	1
4	TCU	1
5	Boise State	1
6	Oregon	1
7	Florida	4
8	Ohio State
9	Georgia Tech	1
10	Iowa	1
11	Virginia Tech
12	Miami (Florida)	2
13	Brigham Young	2
14	Houston	2
15	Penn State	2
16	Stanford	2
17	West Virginia	8
18	Pittsburgh	5
19	LSU	1
20	North Carolina	2
21	Oklahoma State	3
22	Arizona
23	Nebraska	2
24	Oregon State	8
25	Northwestern
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Southern Cal (#19), California (#23).

Observations

Interestingly, what got the Gators dropped so much was strenght of schedule and points scored against BCS teams. On the one hand, the latter would seem an unfair measurement against the tougher defenses of the SEC, but SoS counts for more and will normally overcome that. I find it ironic that the Gator offense is what ultimately helped undo them, as well as their weaker schedule

This should be a lesson. If you are going to contend for the national title, play tough teams, because if you do, you might just survive that loss. But play a weak schedule, and you will drop like a stone.
Man, LSU and Pittsburgh were close. What ultimately decided that one was LSU's less impressive record against winning teams.
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Southern Cal is out of my poll altogether.
Boise State was not even close, so all you Boise lovers can fuggetaboutit. Great season by the Broncos, though. As consolation, there is a really big gap between Boise and Oregon, the biggest gap in the top ten.
The Georgia Bulldogs almost reached the top 25 with their big win over Georgia Tech. Almost.

Comments welcome and appreciated.

Kentucky Basketball: Some Things Deserve Posts of Their Own

Truzenzuzex — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:51:00 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

John Wall, one-man fast break.

Browse more photos »

Occasionally, authors write articles so good, so absolutely fascinating, that they deserve their own spot at the top of A Sea of Blue. This article by Andrew Sharp, SB Nation's basketball blogger, is such a case.

Let's start off with the fact that Andrew is a North Carolina fan, and proud of it. But Andrew writes this piece from the perspective of a college basketball fan as well as a Tar Heel fan, and the combination is compelling, interesting and for my money, absolutely captivating.

The first thing that got my attention was this:

In my mind, it's a thousand times cooler to be surrounded by a bunch of people that aren't there to get caught by ESPN cameras, but because it's one of the few things in life that's been an absolute mainstay. Through generations of families, people have been going nuts over Kentucky basketball, and that's why the grown men, women, 17-year-old daughters and 70-something grandparents still make weekly pilgrimages to Rupp Arena. Because they live and breathe Kentucky basketball, and it's something they've been doing for years and years.

That's a fascinating paragraph, if you think about it. Andrew managed to encapsulate the raison d'être of the Big Blue Nation in just one paragraph, accurately. As wordy as I am, I doubt I could accomplish the same thing in three. But I digress.

It is amazing to see the combination of diversity and universal passion that is the Big Blue Nation. While I was watching the Michigan State at North Carolina game the other day for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, I was very impressed by the Tar Heel fans, and how big and light blue the Dean Smith Center was. But with all due respect to our neighbors to the East, The crowd at Rupp Arena, at least for last Saturday, blew them away.

I think, as much as anything, it was a bigger deal for UK fans -- we haven't beaten the Tar Heels in five long years, and the Big Blue Nation were beside themselves in the hope to be relevant again:

As the game wound down, you could sense that the crowd was happy not just about the win, but a return to relevance. And these people deserve it. It odd to say they "deserve" anything since this is a fanbase blessed with more wins than anyone in college basketball history; but they do. People that care this much about basketball should have a Top 10 team. It's just good for the sport.

I agree. It is good for the sport, and it is good of Andrew to lay aside the rivalry and recognize that, something that I deeply respect and appreciate. Not because it makes me feel good, but because he is 100% right.

More after the jump.

As to what Andrew witnessed, well, sit still for a little hyperbole:

[John Wall is] not so much a freshman as an NBA player playing college basketball. Carolina's Larry Drew vs. John Wall was like pitting a golden retriever against a cheetah. It's not the dog's fault when that fight turns into a slaughter. It's just... nature. Do you ever wonder what it would have looked like had Lebron gone to college? This is it. And it's funny.

I don't know if it was all like that, but there was no way Drew could stay in front of Wall. Wall is among the fastest point guards in the history of college basketball with the ball in his hands, and Larry Drew cannot be faulted for being unable to stay in front of him. That's just something that teams will have to learn to contend with.

Finally, there's this:

The Wildcats are a worthy adversary again; it's good to have them back. Their fans span generations; and just when you think a rivalry's dead, John Wall comes to Kentucky, my 10 year-old cousin falls in love with UK, and suddenly John Calipari has the Wildcats looking like the hottest program in college basketball. Next year, Harrison Barnes comes to UNC, and who knows what'll happen?

Indeed. Who knows? But what I do know is this -- it's good to be considered worthy of praise by a Tar Heel fan, because quite honestly, Kentucky's basketball team has not been worthy of that for some time. That's just reality.

Read the whole thing. I promise you, these excerpts do not do it justice.

2006 Rematch: Kentucky vs. Clemson in the Music City Bowl

Truzenzuzex — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 13:34:52 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

Brooks, Locke & Co. are headed for a rematch with the Clemson Tigers in the Music City Bowl.

Browse more photos »

It is official now, and the Kentucky Wildcats will face the Clemson Tigers in a rematch of the 2006 Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl. John Clay summarizes thus:

The chance of finishing second in the SEC East with a trip to sunny Tampa and the Outback Bowl dissolved into the reality of a fourth-place finish and a get-well card from their old friends in Nashville.

We know you're disappointed, but we've been there for you before, and we're here again. You had a great time your last two visits. Remember? You'll have a great time again. We promise.

Indeed. We are all bitterly disappointed by the overtime loss to Tennessee, but I remember the excitement when we first went to the MCB three years ago. It was the rebirth of Kentucky football, and since then, the football team has ceased being the red-headed step child of Kentucky athletics and is now doing the school and its fans proud.

Add to that the benefit of Nashville being an easy place to get to for most Kentucky fans, just a few hours down I-65. In tough economic times, there could hardly be a better destination to provide a maximum Wildcat turnout.

Unlike the last MCB trip, this one will be broadcast live on ESPN Prime Time on Sunday, December 27th at 7:30 CST (8:30 EST). Tickets are still available to the game at all levels, apparently, plus travel packages will be offered.

As far as the bowl destination is concerned, Rich Brooks unsurprisingly waxes pragmatic:

"It definitely could have been a lot worse; just ask a few teams who are going other places that are upset that they aren't going where we are," Brooks said. "And we're upset that we aren't going where somebody else is going. So that's all part of the equation."

For my money, either Birmingham or Shreveport is a worse destination, even though they are both in a somewhat warmer clime.

More after the jump.

Kentucky's opponent in this year's Music City Bowl will once again be the Clemson Tigers, the Wildcat's first bowl victim in many years back in 2006. Clemson finished second in the ACC and unquestionably deserved to play in the Gator Bowl. But surprisingly, the Gator Bowl chose home-state Florida State with it's pick instead of the Tigers, who should have been first in line, apparently because of the economics of a retiring Bobby Bowden.

Naturally, Clemson fans were rightly incensed, but in the smaller bowls, economics rule the roost, and these are, as I said, tough times. Ivan Maisel of ESPN explains:

1. The Atlantic Coast Conference and some members are upset that the Gator Bowl bypassed four league teams with at least eight wins, including Atlantic Division winner Clemson, to take 6-6 Florida State. The Gator Bowl wants the sellout that Bobby Bowden’s final game will bring. The ACC has a rule that bowls may pick a team within one win of the best available team. The Gator shrugged. This is the last year of the ACC/Gator contract. Divorce is never pretty.

Heh. Clemson didn't just get jobbed, this was a "Shut up, bend over and smile big for the cameras. Our agreement means something only when it's to our advantage." Ouch. Unethical act by the Gator Bowl, no question. Florida State should have declined. In fact, the ACC should have insisted FSU decline. It's their rule, after all, even if it meant giving the Gator a non-ACC pick. I guess rules can be waived when they are inconvenient.

But no matter. Clemson gets Nashville, and the Wildcats. They had better get over their despondency quickly, becuse even though UK is also disappointed, they are a lot closer to the, "Just happy to be here" thinking than the Tigers are.

We'll have more on the Music City Bowl as we move closer to the big day.

The Big Blue Daily Mail -- Sunday PM Edition

Truzenzuzex — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 23:54:48 -0000

I don't have a lot more to say about the Kentucky Wildcats vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels than has already been said by others.

So for this version of the BBDM, I'm just going to let the links speak for themselves.

The news follows the jump.

The two sides of the Tar Heels | KentuckySports.com
When asked if they hoped to see Kentucky again down the road in the NCAA Tournament, Thompson and fellow senior Marcus Ginyard had quick responses.

"Most definitely," Thompson said. "We want another shot at them."

Anytime, anywhere, guys.

UK-UNC notes: Calipari praises Bledsoe's drive | KentuckySports.com
"The game changed in the first half because of Daniel Orton's intensity," Calipari said.

Yes, it did. He didn't score or get a ton of rebounds, but he changed the game in Kentucky's favor with his domination of the post on the defensive end, and his energy and intensity.

Alabama vs. Texas: Tide never has beaten the Longhorns | Tide Source - al.com
I guess everybody has streaks like this.

" SEC links: The Crimson Tide takes the title John Clay’s Sidelines
Lots of accolades for the Tide, who crushed the Gators in Atlanta yesterday. I suppose that vindicates my having the Tide on top for the last six weeks or so.

Woods tells Arkansas to support Pelphrey — Jerry Tipton on UK basketball

Bob Ryan: Cal will win national title someday — Jerry Tipton on UK basketball

How the BCS Selection Process Works with Predictions - Team Speed Kills
For those of you wondering how the BCS will shake out, here is your explanation.

UK-Clemson matchup looks probable | Vaught's Views
If so, it will be a rematch of three years ago.

Lucas: Learning As They Go - NORTH CAROLINA OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
Kentucky's 28-2 first-half run was remarkable for the way the Wildcats got good looks and stymied Carolina defensively. But it was most stunning for the way Kentucky completely out-Carolina'd Carolina. Six of the Wildcat field goals in that game-turning stretch were scored within six seconds of taking possession. John Wall will get the credit orchestrating the fast-break blitzkrieg, but what was most impressive was that he had teammates running with him.

The defense was what was most impressive in that run, but when the 'Cats are hitting on all cylinders, there are few teams who can hang with them offensively.

Scout.com: Win over UNC sends message: Cats are for real
To fans of North Carolina the resounding message was, whatever slim hope you held of hitting 2000 overall victories prior to Kentucky reaching the mark, just went down the drain.

Heh. Indeed.

Wall, UK wins; mancrush building - Searching for Billy Edelin
Really, from what I have seen so far from this kid exceeds what I envisioned back in the summer.

Surgery sidelines Maxwell for bowl game | KentuckySports.com
Kentucky senior linebacker Sam Maxwell will undergo surgery later this month to repair a torn labrum and will miss the Wildcats' upcoming game in the Music City Bowl.

Man, bummer. He will be missed. What a lousy way to end your senior campaign.

Rick Bozich | Injuries aren't all that ails Louisville basketball team | courier-journal.com | The Courier-Journal
It was not only the worst home loss of Pitino's UofL career, it also was the most embarrassing. I can't claim that line. I'm borrowing it from Pitino.

Ouch.

What we learned: Wall's athleticism rivals that of Dr. J - Mike DeCourcy - College Basketball - Sporting News
In 25 years, if you are a fan of college basketball, you will be seeing highlights of the time Wall drove on a fast break, got himself too deep under the backboard, and solved that problem by gliding to the opposite side and scooping in a layup past Carolina's Marcus Ginyard. This will be a little different because Julius Erving's swoop past Mark Landsberger was in the NBA Finals, but Wall's play stirred echoes of Dr. J's brilliance.

Wow. Just wow. Via John Clay.

" BBL: Is John Wall greatest athlete at point guard ever? John Clay’s Sidelines
John Clay's Big Blue Links.

Eric Crawford | Calipari's Kentucky basketball team is better than he says | courier-journal.com | The Courier-Journal
It was a breathtaking burst. UK looked dominant in every phase and appeared to have a gear that its opponent simply didn't have. And this opponent, mind you, was No. 10-ranked North Carolina, not North Carolina-Asheville.

"They ran us out of the gym," North Carolina coach Roy Williams said of the first half. "I don't know if I've ever coached a team where at halftime they had 12 fast-break points and we had zero."

We may not be there just yet, but that run has tongues wagging all over America today.

Wall meets expectations in front of the nation | KentuckySports.com
Carolina prides itself on beating teams down the floor. Wall beat the Heels down the floor. One trip, he zipped past a slower North Carolina defender for a ferocious dunk. Another trip, Wall zig-zagged his way through taller, thicker Heels for an outrageous up-and-under move that spun off the glass and through the net.

I can't stop thinking about that awesome stretch of basketball. It was otherworldly, and for a while there, we made the Tar Heels look like Gardener-Webb.

Cats have to be able to play without Wall | Vaught's Views
Yes. We do.

Eric Bledsoe shows he's one of Kentucky basketball's cool kids | courier-journal.com | The Courier-Journal
In the end, Bledsoe stood as a prime example of grace under pressure — and the power of self-promotion.

I don't think we have given Eric Bledsoe enough credit. His coolness under fire was the difference in this game.

Andy Katz: John Wall shines in first big test - ESPN
"He's so good in the open court," Drew II said. "He can do just about anything he wants in the open court. Our game plan was to build a wall around him once he got the ball, but he got out in the open court and got a lot of fast-break points going one-on-one. He's hard to stop when it's you and him in the open court."