Our Detroit Lions face the daunting task this year of overcoming a sub .500 record (one in, of course, a loooong series of sub .500 records) to make the postseason.  But as extreme a task as that might seem, it happens almost every single year in the NFL for at least one team, if not more.  Without fail, season after season, teams make the leap from also-ran to in the running.  In this post, we're going to take a quick look at the last 10 years of NFL football and how many teams have overcome their previous sub .500 record and make their way to the promised land of playoff football.

2010 Season:

Kansas City Chiefs: 2010: 10-6 (AFC WEST CHAMPS) 2009: 4-12. Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Seattle Seahawks: 2010: 7-9 (NFC WEST CHAMPS) 2009: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round.

2009 Season:

Cincinnati Bengals: 2009: 10-6 (AFC NORTH CHAMPS) 2008: 4-11-1 (lol Donovan McNabb) Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Green Bay Packers: 2009: 11-5 (WILD CARD) 2008: 6-10 Finish:Eliminated WC Round

2008 Season:

Miami Dolphins: 2008: 11-5 (AFC EAST CHAMPS) 2007: 1-15 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Baltimore Ravens: 2008: 11-5 (WILD CARD) 2007: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated AFC Championship

Carolina Panthers: 2008: 12-4 (NFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2006: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Atlanta Falcons: 2008: 11-5: (WILD CARD) 2006: 4-12 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

2007 Season:

Washington Redskins: 2007: 9-7 (WILD CARD) 2006: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2007: 9-7 (NFC SOUTH CHAMPION) 2006: 4-12 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

2006 Season:

New York Jets: 2006: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2005: 4-12 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Baltimore Ravens: 2006: 13-3 (AFC NORTH CHAMPS) 2005: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Philadelphia Eagles: 2006: 10-6 (NFC EAST CHAMPS) 2005: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints: 2006: 10-6 (NFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2005: 3-13 Finish: Eliminated NFC Championship

2005 Season:

New York Giants: 2005: 11-5 (NFC EAST CHAMPS) 2004: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Washington Redskins: 2005: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2004: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Chicago Bears: 2005: 11-5 (NFC NORTH CHAMPS) 2004: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2005: 11-5 (NFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2004: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Carolina Panthers: 2005: 11-5 (WILD CARD) 2004: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated NFC Championship

2004 Season:

New York Jets: 2004: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2003: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers: 2004: 15-1 (AFC NORTH CHAMPS) 2003: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated AFC Championship

San Diego Chargers: 2004:12-4 (AFC WEST CHAMPS) 2003: 4-12 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Atlanta Falcons: 2004: 11-5: (NFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2003: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated NFC Championship

2003 Season:

Baltimore Ravens: 2003: 10-6 (AFC NORTH CHAMPS) 2002: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Dallas Cowboys: 2003: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2002: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Carolina Panthers: 2003: 11-5 (NFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2002: 7-9 Finish: Lost Super Bowl

St. Louis Rams: 2003: 12-4 (NFC WEST CHAMPS) 2002: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

Seattle Seahawks: 2003: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2002: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

2002 Season:

Cleveland Browns: 2002: 9-7 (WILD CARD) 2001: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Tennessee Titans: 2002: 11-5 (AFC SOUTH CHAMPS) 2001: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated AFC Championship

Indianapolis Colts: 2002: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2001: 6-10 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

New York Giants: 2002: 10-6 (WILD CARD) 2001: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

Atlanta Falcons: 2002: 9-6-1 (WILD CARD) 2001: 7-9 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

2001 Season:

Chicago Bears: 2001: 13-3 (NFC CENTRAL CHAMPS) 2000: 5-11 Finish: Eliminated Divisional Round

San Fransisco 49ers: 2001: 12-4 (WILD CARD) 2000 6-10 Finish: Eliminated WC Round

New England Patriots: 2001: 11-5 (AFC EAST CHAMPS) 2000: 5-11 Finish: Super Bowl Champions

There you have it, 10 years of football, and multiple teams making the leap every single year, as many as 5 in one year a few times.  Here are some interesting stats. 

Out of 120 Playoff Teams over the past decade, 36 of them have been sub .500 the year before.  That equates to 30% of all playoff teams over the past 10 years, a full 3 in 10, or an average of 3.6 sub .500 teams making the playoffs every year.  Not too shabby.

Of the 36 teams, here are the breakdown of their year before records.

1-15: 1

2-14: 0

3-13: 1

4-12: 5

4-11-1: 1

5-11: 9

6-10: 9

7-9: 10

Here's the breakdown of their finishes:

Lost WC Round: 18

Lost Div Round: 10

Lost Conference Championship: 6

Lost Super Bowl: 1

Won Super Bowl: 1

And since this is getting long, just one last stat.  Records of teams that finished the previous year 6-10

15-1: 1

13-3: 1

12-4: 1

11-5: 2

10-6: 4

9-7: 0

So, there it is, all on the table.  The good news? It's not at all crazy for a team like the Lions to make the playoffs.  The bad news?  It's really hard to go deep into the playoffs after you make them.  Lets just hope the Lions can channel both their inner 2004 Steelers and 2001 Patriots simultaneously, eh?

Just heard that Sims won't be brought back by the Eagles last year.  As a Lions fan, I can't say I was surprised to hear this.  Ernie is one of the most frustrating players I've ever had the misfortune of watching.  He is, bless his little athletic heart, a freaking football idiot.  He has no instincts whatsoever.  So really, I just wanted to say, Sorry about Ernie, guys.  I'm sure the combination of losing a 5th around and getting burned by Ernie's awful play was a tough pill to swallow.  Here's hoping the Broncos drafted a bust with your 5th round pick(Perrish Cox, I think).  And if it makes you feel any better, Tony Scheffler has been pretty underwhelming for us, too.  I normally don't mind burning a team, but Eagles fans are pretty cool guys for the most part, so, I feel bad.  You should probably let your team execs know for the future that trading for Matt Millen draft picks is a pretty terrible idea.  Just ask Jerry Jones.

Wednesday, however, it was revealed that the 27-year-old had an incident prior to his arrest, when he turned up at Cowboys Bar-B-Q & Steak Co. in Ft. Pierce around 10:15 p.m. as the restaurant was being closed. The manager, Fletcher Nail was speaking with an off-duty wildlife officer named Kyle Patterson when Cabrera walked in, reeking of alcohol. Nail and Patterson allege that Cabrera pointed to his shoulder bag while saying "I know all of you, and I will kill all of you and blow this place up.

CBS Sports is reporting that a 41 page report dealing with Miggy's now infamous slip off the wagon. And uhh...wowzers. Crazy stuff. If this stuff is true, then I think it's fairer to say that he downright cannonballed off the wagon that night. I mean, unless there's some crazy details that we don't know about what set him off, this is some really disturbing information. Hopefully the help he's getting will genuinely do him some good.

Read the whole crazy story here http://eye-on-baseball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/27826677

For those of you hoping to win a huge score next year, I have some very bad news.

New England Patriots: +500

Green Bay Packers: +600

New Orleans Saints: +700

Pittsburgh Steelers: +850

Indianapolis Colts: +1000

Baltimore Ravens: +1200

New York Giants: +1500

Philadelphia Eagles: +1500

New York Jets: +1500

San Diego Chargers: +1700

Atlanta Falcons: +2000

Dallas Cowboys: +2300

Houston Texans: +3000

Detroit Lions +3500

Chicago Bears: +4500

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +4500

Oakland Raiders: +5000

San Francisco 49ers: +5000

Kansas City Chiefs: +5000

St. Louis Rams: +5000

Seattle Seahawks: +6500

Minnesota Vikings: +7000

Jacksonville Jaguars: +7500

Tennessee Titans: +7500

Buffalo Bills: +8000

Miami Dolphins:+8000

Cincinnati Bengals: +9000

Cleveland Browns: +10000

Denver Broncos: +10000

Washington Redskins: +10000

Arizona Cardinals: +15000

Carolina Panthers: +15000



14th best Super Bowl odds.  Not too shabby.  Of course, it doesn't really mean anything other than that we can't all make a big score on our superbowl win next year. :D.  Still cool, though.  Always glad to see we're getting love. 

Odds from Betonline.com

I know this is probably going to sound ridiculous, but I was reading an article about the game today, and in it, the author said something to the effect of "If I'm an NFL GM, I'd give up a 2nd round pick for Stanton in a second."  It sounds a little farfetched to me, but it got me to thinking.  If a team offered a high pick for Stanton, should we pull the trigger.  I think if he really does have high draft pick value in some GM's eyes, then trading him would be the prudent thing to do.  In Hill, I think we already have a perfectly capable backup.  I don't know that we need 3 capable QBs on the roster.  What do you guys think? 

Though this is all academic at this point, I'm going to make you all sad with this brief analysis of what our season might have been. 

Right now, we stand at 3-10, looking at a pretty disappointing year.  But suppose we change just a few tiny things.  What might have been.  I'm going to look at  4 games where I feel that, if Stafford had played them in their entirety, we would have won them.

Week 1: Bears.  Pretty obvious, really.  We basically won this game anyways.

Week 4: Packers.  Perhaps this wouldn't have gone our way, but considering Hill's two picks and that we only lost by 2 points, I think it's very, very possible Stafford would have given us the extra score we needed to pull this one out.

Week 9: Jets.  A game we were controlling until Staff went out, and we still only lost in OT.  I feel comfortable saying we'd win.

Week 13: Bears.  Another one that you could argue is a toss up, but I feel like we could have, at the least, converted that 4th down with Stafford, giving us a very good shot at winning.

Ok. you're saying, why bother with this?  Simple.  Suppose, if you will, that Stafford was still around, and managed to change the outcomes of only these 4 games.  Let's look at some NFC North Records

Lions 7-6

Packers 7-6

Bears 7-6

That's right.  Change these 4 extremely tight games, and the Detroit Lions are a first place team, holding tie breakers over both their rivals.   We're that annoyingly, devastatingly close from being in the drivers seat to a playoff spot.  How freaking depressing is that, guys?

Reports from CBS Sportsline are claiming that the Red Sox and Carl Crawford have agreed to a 7 year, 142 million dollar deal.  The deal works out to 20.3 million a year for the length of the deal.  The 29 year old Crawford will be 36 at the end of the deal.  This presumably ends any speculation of the Red Sox being a suitor for Magglio Ordonez.  With Crawford spurning the Angels, one wonders if perhaps they'll get in on the bidding for Ordonez, though it seems to be a odd match.

ESPN Insider article, Scouts inc Preview of the Lions/Jets game.  Obviously, I can't share it all, but a couple interesting notes.

Lions are given the positional edge at QB, WR, and DL, all probably fair I think.  It's really an interesting piece, as their previews always are.  But the reason I've posted this fanpost is the prediction. 

Scout's Inc's score prediction?

Lions 21.....

Jets 20.

Yep, you read right.  They're picking the Lions over the Jets.  I think we're finally getting some recognition, guys.  Here's hoping they're as good of scouts as they think they are, eh?

Link for insiders:http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/scouting?gameId=301107008

Via CBS Wire Reports, Schwartz has said that Stafford, while very sore today, had good test results and no surgery will be required on his injured shoulder.  There is, however, no timetable on his return.  Still, no surgery is very encouraging. Hopefully the 2 weeks or so optimistic reports are accurate and we'll have our QB back sooner than later.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/13939690/schwartz-says-lions-qb-stafford-wont-need-shoulder-surgery

I just got my ESPN Magazine NFL Preview edition today.  And inside, much to my surprise, was a piece discussing Football Outsider's projected win totals for all 32 NFL teams.  Let's take a look at some of these win totals, shall we?

Chicago Bears: Avg Wins: 9.0

Hmm, interesting... 9 wins seems a little high for the Bears, doesn't it?

Carolina Panthers: Avg 7.2

A lot for a team with QB questions, but hey, it's possible.

Kansas City Chiefs: Avg 8.9 Wins

Wowsers!  That's quite a jump from Eric Berry and Dexter McCluster,eh?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Avg 8.0 Wins

Jeeze, this system must really value rookie talent, huh?

St. Louis Rams: Avg 6.3 Wins

This, I have to admit, is kind of shocking.  Teams with high picks are really shooting up, aren't they?

Detroit Lions: Avg 3.1 Wins.......

WHAT? WHAT?!? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?  Half the wins of the Rams?!?  A third the wins of the Chiefs? What's wrong with these people?!?

Even the 2nd worst team, Oakland, has a full win and a half higher on average. 4.6 vs. 3.1.  This is insane.  I now have officially zero regard for Football Outsiders or anything they ever say.  There is absolutely zero evidence that the Lions are EASILY the worst team in the NFL, which is exactly what these idiots are saying.

Some among us have been discussing the UFC merging cards to improve buyrates.  So we're going to play a game.  We're going to combine UFC 106-UFC 110 into two mega cards, and see what we've got. 

First, we'll cut off all undercard fights, because they wouldn't make the cut.

lets look at all 5 main cards. 

106:  375000 buys, 3 million live gate

 Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni

Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Paulo Thiago vs.  Jacob Volkmann

Josh Koscheck  vs. Anthony Johnson

 Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

UFC 107: 620,000 buys, 1.5 million live gate
Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce

Frank Mir vs. Chieck Kongo

BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez

UFC 108: 300,000 buys 2 million live gate

Junior Dos Santos vs. Gilbert Yvel

Jim Miller vs. Duane Ludwig

Joe Lauzon vs. Sam Stout

Dustin Hazelett vs. Paul Daley

Rashad Evans vs. Thaigo Silva

UFC 109: 350000 buys 2.2 million live gate

Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg

Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen

Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman

UFC 110 est. 240000 buys 2.5 million live gate

Mirko CroCop vs Anthony Perosh

Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader

Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos

Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping

Minotauro Noguiera vs. Cain Velasquez

First we need two main events.  Penn/Sanchez is the obvious choice.  Based purely on competitive importance, I feel like Velasquez/Noguiera would be the second main event, though you could make a case for Griffin/Ortiz.

Next, two co main events.  I'll give UFC 106: Penn vs. Sanchez Evans-Silva.  To UFC 107: Thunder Down Under (our australian card), I'll give Griffin Ortiz.

Our third matchup, I grant Silva/Bisping to 106 and Couture/Coleman to 107. 

For the fourth, 106 gets Marquardt vs. Sonnen and 107 gets Mir vs. Kongo

Our fifth matchup for each card will be Cane/ Little Nog for 106 and Florian/Guida for 107

Our undercards will consist of Jardine/Bader, Swick/Thiago, Maia/Miller, JDS/Yvel, and Koscheck/Johnson for 106 and Serra/Trigg, Cro Cop/Perosh, Hazelett/Daley, Stephenson/Siritiopolis, and Buentello/Struve for 107.  Here are our cards.

UFC 106: Penn vs. Sanchez

BJ Penn vs.Diego Sanchez

Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva

Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping

Nate Marquardt vs.Chael Sonnen

Luiz Cane vs. Little Nog

Undercard:

Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader

Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

Junior Dos Santos vs. Gilbert Yvel

Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson

UFC 107: Thunder Down Under

Cain Velasquez vs. Minotauro Noguiera

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman

Frank Mir vs. Chieck Kongo

Kenny Forian vs. Clay Guida

Undercard:

Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg

Mirko Crocop vs. Anthony Perosh

Dustin Hazelett vs. Paul Daley

Joe Stephenson vs. George Sotiropoulos

Paul Buentello vs. Stephan Struve

The first, and most obvious problem is a matter of gate.  These two shows will get about 5 million total in gate, as opposed to approximately 12 million.  Obviously, a major loss for the UFC.  Merchandise sales obviously suffer.  In terms of PPV buys, these shows need to average 940,000 buys to match the numbers of buys the 5 shows got.  Financially, this is a disaster.  The second problem is a matter of a lot of valuable fights being left on the undercard and never seen.  Great fights like Stephenson/Sotiropoulos.  Important title significant fights like Daley/Hazelett.  Young fighters like Junior Dos Santos going unseen.  Obviously a problem.  The most significant problem, though, at least in my eyes is that this denies 60+ fighers a chance at a paycheck.  The people who need the pay most, too.

Ultimately, the cons of a plan like this so greatly outweigh the abstract concept of "keeping the momentum" that the thought of merging cards like this is simply ridiculous for the UFC.  It might be nice for our wallets, but it ultimately makes no sense for the UFC or for the fighers.

The 2010 edition of the Mock Draft/Lottery generator at ESPN is up.  It has us taking Wall if we get the #1, Evan Turner (which I would hate, given our SG gluttony) at #2, and Favors at #3.  I always love this thing, but it has never been quite so relevant to us.  Messing around with it, we've got at least a decent shot at a top 3 pick.

Here's the link:

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2010/mockdraft

Did anybody else see how Daunte was just tearing up that bears D?  It's clear he's a far superior QB to Stafford.  I mean, he just shredded the Bears to the tune of 4.9 YPA and 0 points.  It's obvious to me that if we'd started him all along, we'd be 4-0 and well on our way to the superbowl.  The brilliance of Daunte Culpepper would clearly make up for all the defeciencies of our team.  He's obviously the right choice.  We should just break Stafford's knee right off.

Anybody been checking these out?  They're actually pretty interesting and cool.  Nice to get quick little updates about how players are doing.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/rapid-reports/team/DET

My personal favorite...

Lions QB Matt Stafford went out with the first-team offense and led them to a touchdown in the two-minute drill, throwing a 50-yard pass to a leaping WR Calvin Johnson.

Hope I hear that one for a long, long time.

http://sports.espn.go.com/chat/sportsnation/story?id=4104114

The article lists the cumulative draft grades of a number of online sources.  Based on the combined GPAs, the Lions had the 7th highest GPA in the draft, under only the Giants, Eagles, Packers, Patriots, Jets,and Jaguars.   Now, I know, I know, the experts don't know jack, we know way more about our team, etc.  But as much as the opinion of any one expect is fairly meaningless, the combined weight of experts starts to have more significance.  No matter what we personally feel about it, the world seems to feel like we had a pretty darn good draft.

What, my fellow POD readers, is the only important goal any real football team has?  To patch it's leaks?  To get to .500?  To appease it's fans?  To put a tolerable product on the field?  Of course not.  The only important, only real goal of any Pro football franchise is to win the Super Bowl.  Look at the Detroit Lions last year. The 0-16 Detroit Lions.  How many players on the Detroit Lions could legitimately start on a Super Bowl winning franchise? Probably exactly one in Calvin Johnson.  You know what that means?  Do you understand the connotation?  It means that everyone else is expendable.  Everyone else is replacable.  No, I'll take that one further.  For the Detroit Lions to be a Super Bowl team, every single player not named Calvin Johnson or Jason Hanson must be replaced.  What the Lions did with the Stafford pick, the Pettigrew, the Delmas pick was get players they felt were Super Bowl team caliber players.  This isn't a matter of filling needs, because, if you look at the Super Bowl as the ultimate goal of this franchise, and it had better be, then every spot on the roster but WR 1 is a need.  The Lions goal can't be to patch it's holes.  It' can't be to try and make this a tolerable team, an average team.  That's the absolute worst way of thinking for any front office.  If you don't like the players, fine, that's your opinion.  But if you don't like the players becaues you felt like there were more important needs, you're thinking totally the wrong way.  You're thinking way too small.  I can only hope the Lions front office is thinking big.  

Teams who can't win big with Good Defenses, No great QB:

Washington Redskins

Tampa Bay Buccaneeers

Carolina Panthers

Minnesota Vikings

Buffalo Bills

New York Jets

Chicago Bears (Until Cutler deal)

Teams who can't win big with good rushing attacks, no great QB:

Minnesota Vikings,

New York Jets

Washington Redskins

Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs

Carolina Panthers

Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston Texans

Teams that can't win big with great QBs, bad defenses and/or rushing attacks:

New Orleans Saints

QB is the harder piece to fill, bottom line.  If Stafford hits, and he might, we're going to be much better off than we would if an LB or OL hit.

The bottom line is that Matt Stafford is now a Lion. Simple as that.  So, the only prudent thing to do, the only intelligent thing to do is to root for the guy.  Root like hell.  Even though I have doubts, and we all have doubts, we just need to hope this guy is finally the answer to the problem that's plagued the Lions for half a century.  Welcome to the team, Matt.

You'd better be good.

Hypothetical here.  Imagine if you will two scenarios.  Both truly horrifying in nature. 

Scenario A. Lions take Stafford.  Stafford is a bust. Curry becomes an All-Pro LB.

Scenario B. Lions take Curry. Curry is a bust. Stafford becomes a All-Pro  QB.

In your mind, which is the more painful situation.  Which would you rue for all eternity?  Which would feel more like Sam Bowie over Michael Jordon? I think the answer to this question tells you how you should feel about the draft.

of this young season.

To those who say Rick Knapp isn't a magical religious figure masquerading as a human being, I present to you this most amazing of statistics.

The Detroit Tigers...

That is to say, YOUR Detroit Tigers...

Have officially given the FEWEST free passes in Major League baseball.  That's right, Folks. At 33 walks, fewer than anybody and everybody in all of baseball.  Seriously, people.  Absolutely fewest.  This, after issuing the 4th most in the Majors last years,and 2nd most in the American League.

Glory to Knapp in the Highest!

I was listening to the radio,and somebody suggested the Lions sign Shane Lechler.  Now, the guy was probably being an idiot, but the fact that the hosts went on to dismiss him and say Harris is one of the better punters in the NFL is ridiclious.  Harris is at BEST an average punter.  The difference between Lechler and Harris this year?  400 yards of field position.  400 yards! Harris isn't a great punter, never has been.  We just adore him because it's the only time we ever see the ball move a long ways while we're not on defense. 

Did anyone else notice that all three first round OT's selected after Gosder (Carolina's Jeff Otah, Atlanta's Chris Baker, and Houston's Duane Brown) all have starting jobs, while Mr. Cherilus is sitting in the depth chart between last year's walking "Welcome to our Backfield" sign, George Foster? I think it's safe to call this one already a swing and miss by our very own Millidiot. Otah's even starting at right tackle for Carolina, if position is supposed to be the excuse.