SB Nation User Blog: Tubilidentata

Tubili's "Screw the Polls" Omaha Power Rankings - UT Wins It All!

Tubilidentata — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 13:20:43 -0000

Dear All:

Even though three polls are still polling I have chosen, for the final analysis, to disregard the silly wankers. Instead we are going by the numbers in a smoothed out fashion. I have taken into account several stats from the NCAA stat site. Two have used before (RPI from NCAA site and ISR from Boyd's site). I am still using the NCAA seedings (because I can and they favor UT). Finally, I have added hitting (batting average), pitching (ERA) and fielding (F%) which I consider to be "don't lie" stats. I have not used the actual numbers for each team because there were huge gaps in some cases (though not in ERA where most of the 8 teams are right up there). For all catagories used for the final poll I have smoother the numbers so that they are numbered from 1 to 8 only. This makes Cinderella (So. Miss.) look more like they might actually belong and also moves UT from #4 with those silly polls to #2 without those ludicrous offerings.

This leads us to our vaunted "by the numbers" predictions for Omaha. By the numbers, Fullerton meets Texas in the final match-up and Fullerton prevails. However, I'm a homer and believe that with statistics I can manipulate almost anything and mostly I believe that good pitching and defense will prevail in Omaha. Accordingly, final prediction . . . UT beats Fullerton in the final!!!! UT wins! "But Tubili" you might ask "I thought you were basing this on hard numbers. How did you achieve an emotional homer result like 'UT Wins?'" The answer is simple and the second chart set forth below shows how I achieved the correct result. Pitching (3X) and Fielding (3X) are far more important that Hitting (1X). The correct answer (ie UT wins) is yielded by this correct (and I might add . . . brilliant) analysis!

Can't wait for Omaha! May the best team (UT) win.

Tubili

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	ERA	BA	F %	RPI	ISR	NCAA Seed
1	Cal St. Fullerton	2.00	12	4	1	3	1	1	2
2	Texas	2.83	17	2	7	1	3	3	1
3	Arizona State	3.00	18	1	4	2	4	2	5
4	LSU	4.33	26	6	3	4	6	4	3
5	Virginia	4.33	26	3	2	5	5	5	6
6	North Carolina	4.67	28	5	5	6	2	6	4
7	Arkansas	7.17	43	7	8	7	7	7	7
8	Southern Miss	7.67	46	8	6	8	8	8	8

Adjusted Adjusted Finalk Rankings:

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	ERA	ERA	ERA	BA	F%	F%	F%	RPI	ISR	NCAA Seed
1	Texas	2.30	23	2	2	2	7	1	1	1	3	3	1
2	Arizona State	2.40	24	1	1	1	4	2	2	2	4	2	5
3	Cal St. Fullerton	2.60	26	4	4	4	1	3	3	3	1	1	2
4	Virginia	4.20	42	3	3	3	2	5	5	5	5	5	6
5	LSU	4.60	46	6	6	6	3	4	4	4	6	4	3
6	North Carolina	5.00	50	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	2	6	4
7	Arkansas	7.10	71	7	7	7	8	7	7	7	7	7	7
8	Southern Miss	7.80	78	8	8	8	6	8	8	8	8	8	8

Tubili updates his poll results based on late update by PGCrosschecker (weasels!)

Tubilidentata — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 22:02:32 -0000

I think everything I said is prior post holds but, based on including PGCrosschecker, a couple of the lower schools in the top 16 flip flopped. UT remains #3 even with the added poll in the mix and I still left ISR and RPI with two votes each.

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	Coll. Bball	NCB WA	Base. Amer.	Ping	PG Cross	RPI	RPI	ISR	ISR	NCAA Seeds
1	Cal St. Fullerton	2.89	26	3	3	3	8	3	1	1	1	1	2
2	Arizona State	3.11	28	1	2	2	2	2	5	5	2	2	5
3	Texas	3.78	34	4	4	4	5	4	3	3	3	3	1
4	LSU	4.11	37	2	1	1	1	1	9	9	5	5	3
5	North Carolina	6.33	57	6	5	7	3	8	2	2	10	10	4
6	Virginia	8.22	74	10	8	5	4	6	4	4	8	8	17
7	Rice	8.44	76	7	6	6	6	9	8	8	6	6	14
8	Florida	9.44	85	9	9	10	9	10	6	6	9	9	8
9	Florida State	11.33	102	5	7	8	7	7	14	14	15	15	10
10	Mississippi	12.67	114	8	12	11	11	5	15	15	13	13	11
11	TCU	13.33	120	15	10	12	16	17	10	10	7	7	16
12	Clemson	14.67	132	13	13	14	14	12	11	11	16	16	12
13	Arkansas	16.11	145	16	16	16	13	18	12	12	12	12	18
14	Louisville	17.56	158	12	15	13	10	13	16	16	24	24	15
15	East Carolina	18.33	165	14	14	15	15	14	21	21	19	19	13
16	Southern Miss	33.33	300	17	20	19	19	24	42	42	49	49	19

Tubili's Scintillating Super Regional Analysis

Tubilidentata — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 14:37:20 -0000

Greeting. I've adjusted my blended baseball poll to make the analysis that follows. Several polls appear to have given up since we are in post season play. PGCrosschecker, USA Today and Rivals have gone dormant. I've replaced them by doubling up on the RPI and ISR polls which are strictly by the numbers and passionless. Needless to say, some of us might believe that some of the polls are a wee bit skewed. Based on my polling I will analyze three aspects of the Super Reigionals as follows:

1. Toughest Super Regional. Hands down, as you would expect, the toughest bracket is the LSU v. Rice tilt. There combined ranking scores total 12.88. Second closest is UT v. TCU where the combined ranking totals are 16.63.

2. Most Competitive Super Regional. This goes to the teams that are closest in terms of my adjusted rankings. Yes, obviously, the winner here is once again the Rice v. LSU match-up (difference between them is 3.88). However, by the numbers, there are two other match-ups that are pretty darn close. FSU v. Arkansas is very close with a ranking difference between the teams of 4.0. Mississippi and Virginia are not far behind with a delta of 5.13.

3. Least Competitive Super Regional. Any bracket that has Southern Miss in it would be the hands down winner. The difference between them and Florida in rankings is 25.12. If we throw that out then the next easiest way forward to Omaha is for Fullerton that has an edge of 15.25 over Louisville.

Tubili's fearless predictions for Omaha based on the numbers alone, and eliminating any required "thinking":

Texas, Florida, Arizona State, North Carolina, Fullerton, Florida State, Virginia & LSU. That would be a great final eigth!

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	Coll. Bball	NCB WA	Base. Amer.	Ping	NCAA RPI	NCAA RPI	ISR Rank	ISR Rank	NCAA Seeds
1	Cal St. Fullerton	2.88	23	3	3	3	8	1	1	1	1	2
2	Arizona State	3.25	26	1	2	2	2	5	5	2	2	5
3	Texas	3.75	30	4	4	4	5	3	3	3	3	1
4	LSU	4.50	36	2	1	1	1	9	9	5	5	3
5	North Carolina	6.13	49	6	5	7	3	2	2	10	10	4
6	Rice	8.38	67	7	6	6	6	8	8	6	6	14
7	Virginia	8.50	68	10	8	5	4	4	4	8	8	17
8	Florida	9.38	75	9	9	10	9	6	6	9	9	8
9	Florida State	11.88	95	5	7	8	7	14	14	15	15	10
10	TCU	12.88	103	15	10	12	16	10	10	7	7	16
11	Mississippi	13.63	109	8	12	11	11	15	15	13	13	11
12	Clemson	15.00	120	13	13	14	14	11	11	16	16	12
13	Arkansas	15.88	127	16	16	16	13	12	12	12	12	18
14	Louisville	18.13	145	12	15	13	10	16	16	24	24	15
15	East Carolina	18.88	151	14	14	15	15	21	21	19	19	13
16	Southern Miss	34.50	276	17	20	19	19	42	42	49	49	19

Tubili's Delayed . . . but worth waiting for NCAA Pre-Tourney Poll - UT #4

Tubilidentata — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 20:25:34 -0000

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	Coll. Bball	NCB WA	USA TODAY	Baseball America	Rivals	Ping Baseball	PGCross checker	NCAA RPI	ISR Rank	NCAA Seeds
1	LSU	3.33	30	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	10	5	3
2(t)	Cal St. Fullerton	3.67	33	4	4	5	4	3	5	4	1	1	2
2(t)	Arizona State	3.67	33	3	3	3	3	4	2	3	5	2	5
4	Texas	3.90	39	5	5	4	5	5	3	5	2	4	1
5	UC Irvine	4.22	38	1	1	1	1	1	4	2	18	3	6
6	North Carolina	8.22	74	7	7	6	8	8	8	9	3	14	4
7	Rice	9.33	84	8	6	7	6	7	7	10	12	7	14
8(t)	Virginia	11.11	100	13	9	9	7	11	6	7	9	12	17
8(t)	Florida State	11.11	100	6	8	8	10	6	9	8	14	21	10
10	Oklahoma	11.22	101	11	10	10	9	10	10	12	16	6	7
11	Florida	11.56	104	10	11	12	11	12	12	11	6	11	8
12	Mississippi	12.78	115	9	12	11	12	9	13	6	17	15	11
13	Georgia Tech	14.33	129	16	14	13	17	13	15	15	4	13	9
14	Clemson	15.67	141	15	16	14	16	17	14	13	7	17	12
15	TCU	17.00	153	21	13	15	13	16	17	26	8	8	16
16	Louisville	19.11	172	12	20	18	15	14	11	14	21	32	15
17	East Carolina	20.22	182	19	19	17	18	18	16	17	23	22	13
18	Texas A&M	24.00	216	29	18	25	27	26	19	22	15	16	19
19	Kansas State	24.44	220	23	26	20	14	20	33	21	25	10	28
20	Coastal Carolina	25.22	227	20	15	16	24	30	18	18	26	38	22
21	Alabama	25.33	228	14	24	21	20	15	23	16	36	30	29
22	Miami	25.56	230	18	17	19	26	29	26	28	11	36	20
23	Arkansas	25.67	231	31	21	23	25	31	20	30	13	19	18
24	Elon	27.56	248	30	23	30	22	23	21	25	20	33	21
25	South Carolina	29.00	261	22	28	28	30	21	32	24	24	25	27
26	Georgia	29.56	266	32	22	22	28	32	28	32	19	28	23
27	Missouri	30.89	278	17	41	24	23	22	23	38	30	34	26
28	Minnesota	32.67	294	27	40	32	21	19	31	37	22	40	25
29	Texas State	34.22	308	28	45	33	29	33	22	43	28	23	24
30	Oklahoma State	39.11	352	33	49	34	31	34	34	51	27	29	30

OK, here it is . . . late because I was in Florida visiting family but mostly because Rivals was VERY late posting its ranking for the last week. To Spice things up I've added TWO (countem' two) additional components in an effort to serve you better! Firstly I added the NCAA seedings (as well as I could and assuming 1 plays 16, 2 plays 15, etc) and secondly I added the ISR rankings which I got from Boyd's website!

Tubili's Consensus Poll - UT remains #6

Tubilidentata — Mon, 18 May 2009 21:50:19 -0000

Not a whole lot of change this week but look at UC Irvine's No 1 rankings . . . they get burned by the RPI! OK is at #10 and Rice fell to #11. As for the rest of our ranked Big 12 schools . . . TX A&M #21, KState #24, Mizzou #28, Kansas #34, Okie State #38 and Baylor #39. Can't wait for the post season run!

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	Coll. Bball	NCB WA	USA TODAY	Baseball America	Rivals	Ping Baseball	PGCross checker	NCAA RPI
1	LSU	2.88	23	2	2	3	2	2	1	1	10
2	Arizona State	3.25	26	3	3	2	3	4	3	3	5
3	UC Irvine	3.38	27	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	18
4	North Carolina	4.50	36	4	4	4	6	6	4	6	2
5	Cal St. Fullerton	4.75	38	5	5	6	4	3	9	5	1
6	Texas	5.25	42	6	6	5	5	5	5	7	3
7	Mississippi	7.88	63	8	8	8	7	7	7	4	14
8	Florida State	8.88	71	7	7	7	12	8	6	8	16
9	Florida	9.25	74	9	11	10	9	10	10	9	6
10	Oklahoma	10.25	82	10	10	11	8	9	8	11	15
11	Rice	11.38	91	11	9	9	11	12	11	17	11
12	Georgia Tech	11.88	95	14	13	12	14	11	14	13	4
13	Clemson	12.38	99	13	15	13	13	16	12	10	7
14	TCU	14.13	113	19	12	14	10	15	15	20	8
15	Virginia	15.63	125	21	14	15	16	19	13	15	12
16	East Carolina	16.63	133	18	17	16	15	17	16	14	20
17	Alabama	18.00	144	12	21	18	18	13	21	12	29
18	Miami	19.00	152	16	16	17	23	29	18	24	9
19	Louisville	21.63	173	17	23	27	20	22	20	22	22
20	Coastal Carolina	22.75	182	26	18	19	27	26	19	21	26

Tubili's Consensus Poll - UT #6

Tubilidentata — Tue, 12 May 2009 13:07:14 -0000

Well we are up a notch from #7 to #6 and tied with Rice. UC Irvine is consensus #1 . . . by a large measure. TXA&M, OU and KState are also in the top 20 with Baylor, Kansas and OKie State ranked between #35 and #38 . . . in case you care.

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	Coll. Bball	NCB WA	USA TODAY	Baseball America	Rivals	Ping Baseball	PGCross checker	NCAA RPI
1	UC Irvine	2.13	17	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	8
2(t)	Arizona State	3.25	26	3	3	2	3	4	3	3	5
2(t)	LSU	3.25	26	2	2	3	2	2	1	1	13
4	Cal St. Fullerton	4.25	34	5	4	7	5	3	5	4	1
5	North Carolina	5.13	41	4	5	4	8	7	4	5	4
6(t)	Texas	6.38	51	6	7	6	6	6	9	8	3
6(t)	Rice	6.38	51	9	6	5	4	5	6	7	9
8	Georgia Tech	6.88	55	8	8	8	7	8	8	6	2
9	Virginia	10.00	80	12	10	10	10	11	7	9	11
10	Florida State	10.88	87	7	9	9	17	9	10	12	14
11	Mississippi	11.88	95	13	11	11	9	10	12	11	18
12	Florida	12.00	96	11	12	12	13	15	14	13	6
13	Texas A&M	15.38	123	19	15	16	16	16	11	15	15
14	Clemson	15.50	124	17	16	14	19	21	16	14	7
15	Alabama	16.00	128	10	19	19	12	12	18	10	28
16	Oklahoma	16.50	132	20	13	13	15	13	15	24	19
17	Arkansas	17.50	140	16	17	17	26	19	13	16	16
18	TCU	17.75	142	23	14	20	14	20	17	22	12
19	Georgia	18.25	146	15	18	15	27	17	19	17	18
20	Kansas State	20.38	163	18	23	18	11	18	29	21	25

Tubili's Consensus Baseball Poll - UT #7

Tubilidentata — Tue, 05 May 2009 13:56:38 -0000

Greeting for all those who patiently waited. UT is now up to #7. TXA&M is #14 with OU and KState rounding out the top 20 @ #19 and #20 respectively. For those who care, Baylor dropped to #28 and Kansas rose to #29! Hook 'em!

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	Coll. Bball	NCB WA	USA TODAY	Baseball America	Rivals	Ping Baseball	PGCross checker	NCAA RPI
1	North Carolina	2.00	16	2	1	1	4	4	1	2	1
2	UC Irvine	2.63	21	1	2	2	1	1	4	3	7
3	Rice	3.75	30	7	3	3	2	2	3	5	5
4	LSU	4.25	34	3	4	4	3	3	2	1	14
5	Arizona State	5.50	44	4	5	5	5	5	7	4	9
6	Cal St. Fullerton	5.75	46	5	6	6	6	6	8	7	2
7(t)	Texas	8.88	71	8	8	7	8	7	16	13	4
7(t)	Mississippi	8.88	71	12	7	9	7	8	5	6	17
9	Georgia Tech	9.00	72	10	10	8	9	9	15	8	3
10	Florida State	10.50	84	6	9	10	16	10	6	11	16
11	Florida	11.00	88	9	12	12	11	14	12	10	8
12	Arkansas	12.13	97	13	11	11	17	13	10	9	13
13	Virginia	12.50	100	11	14	14	13	15	9	12	12
14	Texas A&M	14.63	117	15	16	16	14	16	11	14	15
15	Georgia	15.50	124	14	13	13	22	12	17	15	18
16	Miami	16.00	128	20	15	15	19	17	14	22	6
17	Clemson	18.13	145	19	20	19	20	21	19	17	10
18	TCU	18.50	148	22	18	21	15	20	18	23	11
19	Oklahoma	18.63	149	21	17	17	18	19	13	25	19
20	Kansas State	18.75	150	17	21	18	10	18	25	18	23

Consensus NCAA Poll - UT drops to #10

Tubilidentata — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 20:34:42 -0000

Greetings earthlings . . . bet you were looking forward to this after our gloomy "only a tie to show for it" week! Please note I am now fully incorporating NCAA RPI and I tossed in numbers 21 and 22 in the Poll as two Big 12 teams lurk there!

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	Coll. Bball	NCB WA	USA TODAY	Baseball America	Rivals	Ping Baseball	PGCross checker	NCAA RPI
1	North Carolina	2.38	19	3	1	1	4	4	1	3	2
2(t)	UC Irvine	3.25	26	1	4	3	1	3	5	5	4
2(t)	Arizona State	3.25	26	2	2	2	3	1	2	2	12
4	Rice	4.13	33	8	3	4	2	2	3	6	5
5	LSU	6.25	50	4	5	5	5	5	4	1	21
6	Cal St. Fullerton	6.50	52	5	6	7	6	7	10	8	3
7	Georgia	7.63	61	6	7	6	11	6	11	4	10
8	Arkansas	9.00	72	7	12	8	12	9	7	9	8
9	Georgia Tech	10.13	81	10	14	10	10	10	16	10	1
10	Texas	11.00	88	16	10	9	8	8	15	15	7
11	Mississippi	11.38	91	12	8	13	7	14	8	7	22
12	Florida State	12.50	100	9	9	12	19	12	9	12	18
13	Oklahoma	12.75	102	14	11	11	9	13	6	14	24
14	Virginia	12.88	103	11	15	15	14	15	13	11	9
15	Miami	14.88	119	18	13	14	18	16	12	22	6
16	Cal Poly	17.88	143	13	16	18	13	11	20	18	34
17(t)	TCU	18.00	144	20	18	20	15	19	18	23	11
17(t)	Texas A&M	18.00	144	15	17	16	20	17	14	13	32
19	Clemson	18.38	147	19	19	17	21	22	19	16	14
20	Florida	19.13	153	17	20	19	24	20	17	17	19
21	Baylor	23.13	185	31	24	24	17	18	29	26	16
22	Kansas State	24.13	193	24	23	21	16	21	28	25	35

Improved Consensus Poll - UT #5

Tubilidentata — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 22:18:28 -0000

I've added in the Pseudo RPI to my matrix as this late in the season the numbers are less wonky! UT made a manly jump! You're gonna love my work!

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	Coll. Bball	NCB WA	USA TODAY	Baseball America	Rivals	Ping Baseball	PGCross checker	Pseudo RPI
1	North Carolina	2.88	23	3	1	3	4	6	1	3	2
2	Arizona State	3.38	27	2	3	2	3	1	2	2	12
3	UC Irvine	4.13	33	1	6	6	1	5	3	7	4
4	Georgia	4.50	36	5	4	1	8	3	5	1	9
5	Texas	4.75	38	6	2	4	5	4	4	6	7
6	Rice	5.13	41	8	5	5	2	2	6	8	5
7	Georgia Tech	5.75	46	4	8	7	7	7	7	5	1
8	LSU	8.50	68	9	7	8	6	7	8	4	19
9	Cal St. Fullerton	9.63	77	10	9	10	10	8	18	9	3
10	Arkansas	10.00	80	7	13	9	12	10	10	11	8
11(t)	Virginia	13.50	108	11	16	14	15	15	14	13	10
11(t)	Baylor	13.50	108	17	15	12	9	12	17	10	16
13	Mississippi	14.00	112	13	11	15	11	16	11	12	23
14	Oklahoma	14.25	114	14	14	13	13	14	9	18	19
15	Miami	14.63	117	18	12	11	18	17	13	23	5
16	Florida State	17.38	139	15	10	16	21	13	31	15	18
17	Cal Poly	18.00	144	12	17	18	14	11	21	17	34
18(t)	TCU	19.25	154	20	20	22	16	21	20	24	11
18(t)	Texas A&M	19.25	154	16	18	17	24	19	15	16	29
20	Coastal Carolina	21.50	172	23	19	19	26	32	16	25	12

Consensus NCAA Baseball Poll - UT#9(up 2 spots), OU#10, Baylor#13, A&M#25 & KState#26

Tubilidentata — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 14:38:57 -0000

Adj. Rank	Team	Avg. Rank	Poll Total	Collegiate Baseball	NCB WA	ESPN/USA TODAY	Baseball America	Rivals	Ping Baseball	PGCross- checker
1	Louisiana State	1.43	10	1	1	3	1	2	1	1
2	Georgia	2.86	20	2	2	1	8	3	2	2
3	Rice	3.43	24	3	3	4	2	1	3	8
4	Arizona State	4.71	33	6	5	2	4	4	8	4
5	North Carolina	5.71	40	7	4	5	5	10	4	5
6	UC Irvine	6.57	46	4	7	7	3	8	6	11
7	Cal State Fullerton	7.14	50	8	8	6	6	5	14	3
8	Arkansas	8.57	60	5	12	12	11	7	7	6
9	Texas	8.71	61	11	6	10	9	6	9	10
10	Oklahoma	9.14	64	9	10	9	10	9	5	12
11	Georgia Tech	10.71	75	10	11	11	12	11	11	9
12	Miami	11.29	79	12	9	7	13	13	10	15
13	Baylor	11.86	83	14	13	13	7	12	17	7
14	Coastal Carolina	16.86	118	18	14	15	20	21	12	18
15(t)	Mississippi	17.00	119	19	16	16	17	19	16	16
15(t)	Virginia	17.00	119	13	17	14	19	17	22	17
17	Cal Poly	18.57	130	15	19	21	18	14	23	20
18	Florida State	19.00	133	22	15	20	29	15	13	19
19	Oregon State	19.43	136	16	25	19	14	16	33	13
20	TCU	19.86	139	17	21	22	16	20	19	24