SB Nation User Blog: Two Rs and Two Ls

Steve Phillips Challenge: Final Edition

Two Rs and Two Ls — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 02:51:44 -0000

With the regular season gone (with the exception of the Twins and Tigers on Tuesday), I figured it would be fun couple of moments to see how we all ended up for the Steve Phillips Challenge.

In case you missed it, the Challenge was to pick the ending records of all 30 MLB teams prior to Opening Day and seeing if we could beat the famously bad predictions of one Mr. Phillips. As far as I know, his choices aren't posted anywhere, so it became something of an internal competition with a few of us.

Link here for how we were each doing at the All-Star Break, and here for the original post.

For the final, rather than screw with win percentage, I simply used predicted wins, with the formula being the absolute value of predicted wins minus actual wins. For example, I picked the Braves to go 82-80. They actually finished 86-76, so the absolute value of 82 - 86 is 4, which was my score for Atlanta. Add 'em all up and get a total, lowest total wins.

Sironz 228
cwel87 231
Two Rs And Two Ls 236
Poochie 245
Benne 245
Jack Moore 247
Trenchtown 253
hcoguy 257
vivaelpujols 262

A null prediction of .500 would have netted a score of 285.

Sironz accurately picked the Royals, A's, and Cubs on the way to victory. Strangely, three of us accurately predicted the Reds' 78-84 record.

Our average score was fewer than 5 on the Blue Jays, Twins, White Sox, Mariners, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, and Reds, and way the hell off on the Mets and Indians (more than 20 on each). Good job, everybody.

Beating the Streak

Two Rs and Two Ls — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 02:00:17 -0000

I started playing MLB.com's "Beat the Streak" recently as a statistical project. The way I figure it, there are a number of factors that can influence whether or not a player will get a hit in the coming game. Without going into too much detail, I'm trying to find any factor that can positively influence the number of at bats that my hitter-of-choice will have, decrease the potential for strikeouts against my hitter-of-choice, increase the probability of solid contact against either the starting pitcher or the opposing bullpen, and (depending on the hitter) either increasing the probability of a home run or a bloop single.

I figured a potential factor for this would be whether or not the game was played at home or on the road. After all, the home team doesn't bat in the 9th if they've got the lead, so that can potentially decrease the amount of PA's a batter has. However, what I found does not seem to agree with that hypothesis.

In 2008, Ichiro Suzuki started in 80 road games, averaging 4.775 PA per game, with a standard deviation of 0.7287 PAs. He also started all 81 home games, averaging 4.667 PA per game, with a standard deviation of 0.7583 PAs. I plug these into the old TI-83+ and I find that the difference in average is not statistically significant (p value of .179).

So I figured that maybe, because Ichiro is a leadoff hitter, it wouldn't be as big a difference as it might be for someone who hits deeper in the lineup. To that end, I went and looked up Alex Rodriguez.

Rodriguez had 4.4203 PA/G over 69 road games last year, with a standard deviation of .8118. At home, he averaged 4.3088 over 68 games with a standard deviation of 0.7966. Interestingly that's even less significant (p value of .209). Rodriguez batted fourth a great majority of those games (a couple games in the 3-hole).

So it looks like I'm overblowing the home/road situation in terms of plate appearances. After all, it would only come up if the home team is ahead. The Mariners and Yankees lost 46 and 33 home games respectively, suggesting they were probably behind in the 9th in virtually all those games.

It's interesting to think about, anyway.

Edited on 8/5, 1:10pm... I just went around to do some more research, comparing Ichiro to Ian Kinsler of Texas. The Rangers last year scored 901 runs last year, the most in the league. The M's on the other hand, scored 671 runs. There were only a handful of teams that scored fewer runs than that (SF, OAK, WAS, SD).

I would expect that a team that scores more runs would bring more men to the plate and ultimately inflate each player's PA/G. Kinsler batted first for Texas in 120 games last year, and had 4.8167 PA/G with a standard deviation of 0.7445. Ichiro's totals were 4.7205 PA/G over 161 games, with a standard deviation of 0.7434. The p-value for this one is the most significant of the three so far in this test, but still doesn't pass most significance tests (0.1423). Still odd.

Steve Phillips Challenge: The halfway point

Two Rs and Two Ls — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 06:29:00 -0000

Before the season, nine intrepid LL'ers went on a mission to call the records of all 30 teams in MLB. The picks can be found in this post. I have put all the predictions into a spreadsheet, converted them to win percentages, and compared them to the standings at the all-star break.

Functionally, what I did was take a predicted win percentage, and multiply it by the number of games that the team in question has played, rounding down all games (So by your percentage, Cleveland won 46.9 games? I'm only counting it as 46). I then took the absolute value of the difference between each commenter's predicted wins and the actual wins at the break. For example, I predicted the Dodgers would only have 46 wins at the break. Instead, they have 56, giving me a score of 10 for that team. I added those scores together for all teams; low score wins.

The Standings:

Benne (116 off)
Two Rs And Two Ls (123 off)
sironz (124 off)
vivaelpujols (126 off)
cwel87 (128 off)
Jack Moore (129 off)
JI / Poochie (129 off)
hcoguy (132 off)
Trenchtown (135 off)

As a group, we were shitty at picking Cleveland (an average of 12 off), but good at picking all the teams in the AL East (no team an average of more than 3 off), and great at picking Minnesota, the White Sox, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Houston (all an average of just 1 off).

Hitting .400 / Three True Outcomes

Two Rs and Two Ls — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 20:53:49 -0000

With the Minnesota Twins in town this last weekend, much of the talk about the visitors was about Chairman Joe Mauer hitting a ridiculous .410 average. Mauer's average got me thinking about what it would take to hit .400. Here's what I got:

No batter has a true talent level of a .400 hitter, which requires that a batter get lucky to get there. Because it is easier to get lucky over the short-term, a .400 average is more likely to occur if a player has fewer at bats. A player can get fewer at bats due to manager trickery like batting a great hitter in the 8-hole, but what manager is going to do that? In the player's control, however, is the number of walks he takes and how frequently he takes them.

In 1941, Ted Williams walked 147 times in 606 PA's, having a .243 BB/PA average. Almost a quarter of the time that the Splendid Splinter came up to bat, he got a base on balls. That's ridiculous. The only player I'm aware of who has ever reached a level higher than Teddy in this category is Barry Bonds, who has .376 BB/PA in 2004 and .324 in 2002. Babe Ruth equaled Ted Williams' 1941 output once, and that was in 1923.

Williams also led the league in HR's in 1941, hitting 37, 6.1% of the time he came to the plate. Bonds did better on several occasions, but Williams did beat out Ruth's 1923, where he hit a homer 5.9% of the time he came up. Home runs are quite obviously always hits, so it would make sense for a high-average hitter to have a not-insignificant number of HR's.

By the same token, the high-average batter will also limit strikeouts, since they are never hits. Williams struck out 4.5% of his PA's, better than Bonds in his higher average/OBP seasons ('96, '02, and '04, where he K'd 11.3%, 7.7%, and 6.6%, respectively), and also struck out less than half the time as babe Ruth (13.3% in '23).

But what about some of the other players who have chased .400? How do they compare? In 1995, Edgar Martinez struck out at a comparatively fast rate, 13.6%, but he also walked more than anyone not named Bonds, Ruth, or Williams, checking in at .182 BB/PA. In Tony Gwynn's 1994, where he hit .394 before the strike, he had a BB/PA of .101, HR% of 2.5%, and K'd only 4.0% of the time. When George Brett hit .390 in 1980, He had .113, 4.7% and 4.3%.

So does Mauer have a chance?

I checked out BB-ref this morning and pulled up his stats. He's walking better than Gwynn or Brett, up at .154 BB/PA, and he's striking out like Bonds did in '96 (11.4%), but his HR numbers are ridiculous. Right now, Joe Mauer is hitting homers 8.1% of the time that he steps in. That's better than Bonds' 2002 by 0.6%, and Bonds' '04 by .8%. Nobody on my high-average list not named Bonds (including Williams, Ruth, DiMaggio, Brett, Edgar, Gwynn, Pete Rose, Rod Carew, Ichiro, and Wade Boggs) was even within 20% of what Joe Mauer is doing right now.

On the other hand, Mauer is probably positively influenced by playing in the Metrodome, where turf will help baseballs skid through the infield for hits more than they would outdoors. I don't think it'll make the difference for him, since he's played there his whole career and never batted above .350, but if you're looking for reasons why he might do it, I think that's your big one.

WPA Thoughts on the M's through May 27

Two Rs and Two Ls — Thu, 28 May 2009 20:52:36 -0000

I find the Mariners' bullpen confusing. The TV keeps telling me that the bullpen is a team strength, but we've seen Morrow blow three games, we've seen a lot more Denny Stark than any "good bullpen" should be showing, and Mark Lowe has been awesome at times and rather hittable at others.

I wanted to disprove the TV a little bit, so I thought about the bullpen's job. It seems to me that Priority One for any bullpen is, when given the lead, maintain the lead so that your team wins. Priority Two would be something along the lines of, well, when you're not in the lead (or tied), give up as few runs as possible so that your offense has a chance to climb back in it.

I thought what I'd do is take a look at the WPA charts for each game so far and see if the M's have been reasonably successful in games where their WPA reached above 90, 80, and 70. Unfortunately, I think this is some pretty noisy data, because you have games like May 18, when Washburn blew the game and it had nothing to do with the bullpen, or games like the 15-inning affair on May 3 where we never had the lead when we came up to bat (and the bullpen surrendered 3 runs in extras... it's hard to give the 'pen credit for a good job when they do things like that).

What I end up with isn't exactly a good proxy measure for team bullpen usefulness, but I still find it interesting.

The Mariners have won 22 games so far. By definition, their WPA reached above 70, 80, and 90 in these games.

The M's are 22-3 in games where WPA was at one point 90 or above: April 7, May 14, and May 26.

The M's are 22-9 in games where WPA reached 80 or above, including the games listed above and also April 29, May 2, May 5, May 13, May 18, and May 23.

Finally, the M's are 22-11 in games where WPA reached 70 or above, including the games already mentioned and April 16 and May 9.

Now for some math. The M's played 25 games where WPA > 90.We'd expect them to win 90% of those games. 90% of 25 is 22.5, so we're only .5 games under that. That strikes me as okay, but nothing special.

31 games where WPA > 80, and 80% of 31 is 24.8, which is 2.8 games more than actual. Looks like we've been having a little trouble here.

33 games where WPA > 70, and 70% of 33 is 23.1, just 1.1 games more than actual, so again, looks like we're okay in this area, but we don't have it on lockdown.

I'm not sure where to take this information from here, especially because the data seems really noisy, but I thought I'd at least put it out there for public consumption.

LL Bowling: Get your bowl on TONIGHT! 7pm @ W.Seattle

Two Rs and Two Ls — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 00:04:43 -0000

Okay, so I have set up a time at West Seattle Bowl for March 31 at 7pm. We have at least two hours of bowling time reserved. I have also set aside two lanes but I could set aside more if we need them.

Cost is league rate, $17 per lane per hour. I'll probably put an estimated "money to bring" total when we get closer, but I'll figure that $10 would be plenty and if we have enough people it might get you a drink.

I never rent shoes, so I forget how much they're going to cost, but it'll probably be $2 or $2.50 for that.

By my count here we have 10 people:
Two Rs And Two Ls
tootthekazoo
James F'n X
kevin_ess (+2)
Thingray (+ Jeanuts)
Sec 108
Eyebrows

Assuming everybody shows and we bowl 2 hours, it should be approx. $7 per head for the bowling itself, then I'll talk the guys at the counter into giving me $2.50 on shoes for y'all if you tell 'em you're with me. Turns out I was pretty good on the $10 estimate early on. I figure we might bowl a little longer, or some of us might, since I always have to bowl three games when I go and with 5 on a lane that might take us a while.

Nostalgia? I got your nostalgia right here

Two Rs and Two Ls — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 22:07:01 -0000

I occasionally go back and try to do research on old Mariner games to come up with interesting moments, reasons to start a rivalry with another team, and stuff that amuses me.

Today, I'm reaching back to April 3, 1977, the Minnesota Twins taking on the expansion Seattle Mariners, the third game of a four game series.

Pitching was on display as the game went 8 innings until the first score. Catcher Bob "Scrapiron" Stinson began the Mariner 8th with a double, and was replaced by a pinch runner. A sacrifice bunt moved him to third and a groundout scored the run, thereby cementing the concept of "productive outs" for an entire fandom.

In the ninth, however, it was Twins Catcher Butch Wynegar who sent one over the fence, redeeming himself from having lined into a double play in the 7th. With a runner on, the Twins took a 2-1 lead going into the bottom half of the ninth. Ruppert Jones started the inning with a triple, but Steve Braun could not score him on a flyout to left. Bill Stein, the Mariner third baseman, grounded into a fielders' choice; Jones was out at home, which left the situation looking bleak with a runner on first, two outs, and down a run. Jose Baez came in to pinch run, moved to second on a Dan Meyer single, and scored to tie the game on a Tommy Smith single. With two on and two out, however, the M's would not score again and the game went into extras.

The M's had some tension in the top of the 10th when the Twins put a runner on second with nobody out, and moved two runners into scoring position with two out, but they could not come away with a run, leaving the score tied, but the Mariners went down quietly in the 10th, 1-2-3.

Again the Twins threatened in the 11th, loading the bases with one out, but the M's induced a pop up and a ground out to retire the side. The offense still would not wake back up for Seattle, though, and again went down in order. It would happen again in the 12th, Twins pitchers filing away 9 Mariner batters in a row.

Larry Milbourne, M's second baseman and leadoff batter in this game, led off the bottom of the 13th with a single, and moved into scoring position on a balk, creating a golden opportunity for Dave Collins and Ruppert Jones, but they were both retired.

With two outs, Steve Braun singled to center field off Minnesota pitcher Tom Burgmeier to score Milbourne and give the M's a win in their first-ever extra-inning contest. The 13-inning affair between the Twins and Mariners would also be the M's longest game (in terms of innings) all year, however it was only the second longest game by time.

OTFP: All-Star Band Edition 11/03

Two Rs and Two Ls — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 15:16:59 -0000

When people ask me who my favorite band is anymore, I never have an answer. But what I have figured out is what my favorite band WOULD be, if I could make it happen. I want Fred Schneider from the B52's:

And then I want the two guys from The Proclaimers:

And then I want Sean Paul.

And I want them to sing a capella.

Say what you will about that band, but it would be just about the most vocally distinctive band ever.

OFFTOP: Will Shortz & Haiku Edition (10-23)

Two Rs and Two Ls — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 06:48:48 -0000

I'll get up early
so I can grab the paper
and start sending clues

'til then, I'll provide
some links for your enjoyment
to keep you busy

Apparently, this
was the first published crossword
in 1913.

Back in '96,
the New York Times published this
was Will Shortz' fav'rite.

And with that I leave you
I'll be back by 9 a.m.
to serve the puzzle

The birds and the bees:
What do all the women want?
I hope it's haiku

LL Softball 8/14 (THU): VENUE CHANGE

Two Rs and Two Ls — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:37:52 -0000

All right, so I am leaving town on the 16th for Salem to work on a Masters, but I want to get one more softball out of you guys.

Play begins at 6pm and will end when we deem that it has been completed.

CHANGED LOCATION: Thursday's games will be played at Cal Anderson Park (Corner of Pine & 11th, 6 blocks North of the Seattle U. field. map here. There is parking on 11th Ave.)

I hope y'all who didn't show up on Saturday get a chance for Thursday, we're supposed to have weather in the low 80s and sunny, not the somewhat rainy crap we had to deal with on Saturday.

Sat. Aug. 9 Recap: We were a bit short on people on Saturday, so we mostly spent time taking batting practice. We also could not use the regular softball field since the groundskeepers there must have been Team Tractor fans and dumped a load of dirt at the second base position and put other tractor-like devices on the field. That's mostly the reason for the move, we're likely to get a field we can use at Cal Anderson.

In the meantime, Luke, who posted below, absolutely beasted softballs in batting practice from the southeast corner of the field over the fence on the southwest side, into the parking lot of the Seattle U. building, as the ball rolled into the lobby of said building, roughly 320 feet away. That was probably the highlight of the day; hope to see you on Thursday!

Thu. Aug. 14 (Total: 8 + 1)

Two Rs And Two Ls
Baker
Brett
Fuzz
Wlad-o-matic
~~J.W. Pezzino (+1?)~~
Smith18
Gomez
Mariner John (+1)