SB Nation User Blog: U2boy417

Matusz tonight and in the future

U2boy417 — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 08:48:06 -0000

I went to see Matusz pitch at Bowie tonight. 7 IP, 4 hits, 3 BB, 6 Ks. He had all 3 walks in one inning (the ump was squeezing him a little), but otherwise was great. The hits were mostly cheapies.

His FB sat between 88-92 per the stadium gun, getting faster as the game went on (he was always at 90+ by the 3rd inning). He flashed at least two breaking balls and a change-up that was absolutely savage. Batters had no idea what to do with it. Always going down and away, always 7-10 MPH slower than the FB with the same arm speed. Tons of swings and misses on it.

The question now is, Does he get promoted to AAA? In 45 innings at AA, he has a 1.59 ERA, .88 WHIP, and 4.5:1 K-to-BB ratio. 3 levels in one year might be a little ambitious for a pitcher, but Matsuz is sort of forcing the issue, and Tillman's impending promotion opens up a convenient spot. For comparison's sake, David Price pitched only about 90 innings combined at A/AA last year before moving to AAA, which is less than Matusz has this year.

I noticed that Matusz didn't throw very many fastballs inside tonite, (and when his FB missed it was up and away to righties), which might become a concern as he moves up. There were also a few times when it seemed like he was consciously emphasizing the heater (rather than just going to a change-up that would have finished off a batter), which makes sense, since we've heard the O's wanted him to keep working on the FB. This suggests that he's still experimenting a little, but still...I guess you could say the numbers speak for themselves.

So what do you guys think? Should he take Tillman's spot at AAA?

Our SS situation

U2boy417 — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 05:38:14 -0000

Does anyone else find it a little odd that the O's are scrambling around, trying to figure out what to do with Pie or Salazar, all so we can keep both Izturis and Andino? Two virtually identical players with very little bat?

Does anyone think we've lost more recently, with no Izturis, than we've gained, with Pie and Salazar on the bench? I'd rather have Andino keep playing SS, with Ty Wiggington in there late in games after Andino is PH for, and occasionally starting, and keep Pie and Salazar on the roster.

Wiggington isn't ideal out there obviously, but he's not atrocious, and I think it's worth it to keep Pie and Salazar, who are just the kind of cheap and useful bench options this team has rarely had over the past several years. .

Will this team ever get with the 21st century?

U2boy417 — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:38:30 -0000

It's amazing how frequently this organization does things that make one think it is behind the times when it comes to understanding baseball.

Exhibit A: Melvin Mora continually batting 5th. Dave Trembley's rationale: "He's always been a second-half hitter. He's always been a guy who's hit very well with guys on base...I'm not considering [moving him] now."

Sorry to let the facts get in the way of a good story, Dave, but Mora's career first half OPS: .812; career second half OPS: .769. It doesn't matter that Melvin hit well last year in the second half - overall in his career, he hasnt done so, and he's just awful right now (slugging percentage last 28 days: .299). Can Dave or anyone who works for him look at a stat sheet?

Regarding the rest of Dave's statement...his career OPS with RISP is .769; with anyone on base, it's .816. Hardly anything here to justify leaving Melvin where he is. And yet Dave isn't even considering the move.

Exhibit B: The treatment of Luke Scott. Ever since he got here, we've had this idea that he can't hit lefties well and should sit against a lot of them (for the likes of Jay Payton much of the time). Luke's career OPS vs lefites: .841; career OPS vs righties: .875. Huge difference, huh? In 2007, Luke's last year before coming here, there was a .006 difference in his OPS vs lefties and righties. And yet we give Jay freakin' Payton tons of PT against lefties because Luke can't hit them. Can no one in the organization go to baseball-reference.com?

Obviously there's no Payton this year, but these problems certainly go beyond this year. Furthermore, sitting Luke against Bedard last week, when he was in the middle of a ridiculous hot streak, was absurd.

Exhibit C: Our attitude towards baserunning. From Tom Trebelhorn to Juan Samuel to Dave Trembley, we just love to give outs away on the bases. We don't seem to realize that such "aggression" costs more runs than it produces. We don't seem to care that we're last in the league in baserunning efficiency this year (as another poster here noted) - nope, whenever something boneheaded like hit-and-runs with Aubrey Huff and Mora don't work, Dave just basically says, "Welp, we tried, didn't work, that's the breaks," showing that he has no clue that his approach is wrong and that it will continue.

The fact that we can be worst in the league at CS at only 10th in SB would be comical if it wasn't so sad. And that doesn't even address all the other outs we've given up through "aggressive" baserunning. Maybe one day we'll have a manager--and a team-wide philosophy--that understands the value of your 27 outs at bat.

There are other things, both small (Dave occasionally batting Cesar Izturis and his sub-300 OBP 2nd), and large (our overall aversion to talking a walk, the first month of this year excepted) that further indicate that this organization is living in the past generation, that we can't look at a stat sheet, that we don't seem to grasp any of the revolutions in baseball analysis that have happened over the past 10-20 years.

The O's may have more concrete problems to solve right now, but these problems, I think, will continue to hurt us, perhaps even more so when the club is contending.

Repeat Last Offseason?

U2boy417 — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 20:50:55 -0000

Last offseason, we traded away our best pitcher and best pitcher for a boatload of prospects to help us down the road. Should we take that even further this winter?

Supposedly, under Andy Mac's master plan, we're supposed to show signs of a pulse in '09 and contend for real in 2010. Let's examine the likelihood of this. What's the supposed strength of our franchise? Our pitching prospects in AA and A. Do we really think they're going to be keeping their ERAs under 4 in 2010? Our rotation is an outright catastrophe right now. Do we really think that Chris Tillman, at age 22, will be lights out in 2010, that two pitchers in A ball (Arrieta and Erbe, who will also be just 22) will successfully jump two more leagues by then, that Hernandez will cut down on the walks enough by then to be successful?

It's not unfathomable, and yes, there are pitchers (Lincecum, Hamels, Liriano, etc) who come into the bigs and perform well from a young age without growing pains. But there are also a lot of guys like Bedard who take years to develop once they've reached the show, sort of like how Adam Jones is doing. There's also no guarantee that Wieters will come in and rake right away. We can't have Jeremy Guthrie and 4 pitchers under 24 in our rotation in 2010 and expect to win, even if we had A-Rod and Hanley Ramirez on the left side of our infield.

That said, given that our minor league strength may very well not be able to help us contend (not be .500, but be able to win in October) within a year or two, you could make a strong argument that we should continue the rebuilding. I'm not the first to advocate this, but there's one name people don't often bring up in trade scenarios: Jeremy Guthrie.

I love Guthrie, and trading a starter of his caliber is always a dicey proposition. But there's a good chance his '07 and '08 seasons will compare favorably to Bedard's in 06 and 07, which netted us a massive return. He doesn't have the strikeouts, but he's far more durable (and he's also not a pansy) and farther from FA. If we could get back an Adam Jones-type player or slightly less (in the infield, preferably) and a Chris Tillman-type pitching prospect, with one or two Sherill/Butler/Mickolio types, I'd strongly consider making that deal.

Obviously, if you do this, you must trade Roberts and Huff too. Emphasize position players (in the infield, especially) and pitchers in the deals. This pushes back the contending calendar another year or two, but that may be the best way to go, especially considering that you can't half-ass anything in the AL East. Otherwise, we're hoping that by 2010, Wieters and Jones are flat-out mashing the ball, Huff's current year isn't a fluke, and Roberts, who can't seem to finish off a season strong, will still be playing well into his 30s--and then there's the pitching problem. That's a lot of hoping.

I'm not married to this way of thinking. A pitcher like Guthrie is just the kind of player we want coming back in deals. A potential line-up of Roberts-Jones-Markakis-Teixeira-Wieters (if he hits like a 5)-Huff-Scott makes me swoon...if Matusz is as polished as they say (and we sign him), maybe he can indeed help very soon...and maybe Arrieta or Hernandez strike out guys and control the walks from day one and Bergesen becomes our version of Chien-Ming Wang.

But let's not forget that our best pitcher could help us augment an already promising stash of young players who could form the nucleus of a very good team in a few years.