Seriously Nick, what happened? I love you as an overall player and person, but come on man, what happened to the bat? WIth the HR tonight, Nick's OPS is at .795. The average OPS for an AL right fielder is.... .797. VORP has you as the 109th best player in the league, behind guys like Juan Uribe, Cody Ross, and Adam Kennedy. Fangraphs said he was worth $28.1 million last year, this year $7.7 million.

I could go on, but geez man, what an overwhelmingly average season. The power is in line, no one should expect more than 20 HRs and 40 doubles out of him. But what caused his walk rate to dip so dramatically? In fact, his BB/PA is at .073, the worst of his career. He took 3.86 pitches per PA last year, this year he is taking 3.85, so its not like hes going up there hacking. 

I realize that O's clean up hitters have hit a pitiful .252/.313/.389 this year, but that doesn't excuse everything. Was on base machine Nick Markakis merely a mirage?

I used to tell myself that I would be pretty content with Nick living a Hideki Matsui type of existence, but after this year, who knows if he even can. Theres still time, maybe he will even finish the season on a tear, but nothing has disappointed me more than Nick this season everything considered.

Surprise, surprise, but our much maligned closer has quietly been arguably the best closer in the entire league the past two months. He hasn't even made things interesting either, because hes shutting down the opposition with ease.

April: 9.2 IP, 4 SV, 4.66 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .317 BAA, 8 Ks

May: 11 IP, 6 SV, 0.82 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .132 BAA, 13 Ks

June: 11 IP, 7 SV, 0.82 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, .132 BAA, 8 Ks

Most importantly, hes only issued 9 walks the entire year. Thats pretty dominating stuff.  At this point last year he racked up a ton of saves and had way more press, but at no point did he even come remotely close to pitching as well as he has this year. I know we are all waiting for him to start up his old antics and end the season with an ERA in the 4's, but what if he doesn't? Is it possible that he could be our long term closer?

He could always shut down lefties, in fact hes one of the best in the league at doing so. That will never be a concern. But of course righties are the problem. Last year was his first in extensively dealing with them, and he struggled against them with a 1.73 WHIP and .254 BAA over  35.1 IP. This year though hes kept them under control for the most part with a 1.20 WHIP and a .238 BAA over 21.2 innings.

He doesn't possess the prototypical closer's blazing fastball, but his career K/9 is 9.49, so stuff clearly isn't a problem. And yeah hes already 32, but he doesn't strike me as a guy who's performance will drop off anytime soon due to physical wear and tear. On the flip side, if he keeps up this pace for the next few weeks, he'll be a classic sell high proposition with  trade value even higher than it was last year.  I don't know if George can keep pitching at this level, but to do it for two consecutive months kinda forces the question. The guy is a good pitcher. But I always believed he was thrown into a ill-suited role last year as a closer and suffered in the second half because of it. But hopefully I'm wrong and maybe he really can be a closer. In a career filled with perseverance, maybe this will be another chapter. Or maybe he will implode with 5 ER his next appearance and make me look stupid, who knows. But I like what I'm seeing though.

Now, now, don't laugh just yet. But with his solid play recently, hes in the discussion. The Sun ran a nice article on him today, with MacPhail himself offering some praise:

"The way he's been playing since he's been forced into it, he's an everyday major league shortstop," said Andy MacPhail, the Orioles' president of baseball operations. "He's playing well defensively, he's showing signs with the bat, he can run some. He's done everything well.

"He's one of those guys getting better with playing time. Sometimes, the more you play someone, the more you see that they are really designed for the role that they gravitated to. In his case, the more often that he's been out there, the better he has been."

Baltimore Sun

Of course, we are all high on him a bit right now I presume. The last 13 games hes hit at a nice.295/.326/.432 clip. And defensively hes doing his thing; he certainly passes the eye test, but in addition over at fangraphs hes near the top of the leaderboard for many of the defensive metrics they use (like UZR).

Of course his overall season stats are ugly though, sporting the exact same statline as Cesar Izturis (both have a .620 OPS). This is obviously the biggest hole in his game and the only thing that will prevent him from being a major league regular on a good team. While its too early in the season to get a truly solid gauge of the guy (for all we know he could sink into an 0-20 slump soon), you can lump me in the optimistic crowd for Andino for many reasons.

1) He has the raw ability. He was the 52nd overall pick in the 2002 draft. And as we have seen the past few weeks, he has all the tools necessary to succeed.

2) The Marlins botched his development in almost every way possible. With Andino being drafted out of high school in the Miami area and Alex Gonzalez's days numbered on the big league squad, the Marlins rocketed Andino up the minor league ranks in an effort to get their "shortstop of the future" and hometown kid to the show. For example, despite batting a combined .238 over 900 ABs at the A level as a 19/20 year old, the Marlins promoted him to AA the next season where he not only flailed away but "earned" a September call up as well. The other mis-steps are too numerous to go into full detail, but the worst was probably last season. With Hanley Ramirez tearing things up, Andino was an afterthought. So the Marlins kept the 24 year old Andino on the major league roster for four months where he collected a measly 63 ABs. Pretty much a full season of lost development.

3) Now, this is where point number 2 gets important, because when given consistent playing time, Andino DOES improve. Make no mistake about it, this guy isn't a prodigy in any way. He was clearly a slow bloomer and needed probably two seasons at each level to get the swing of things. His minor league stats tell the story of when he repeats a level:

A (2003): .188/.266/.252; .518 OPS

A/A+ (2004): .281/.316/.377; .693 OPS

and

AAA (2006): .255/.303/.363; .666 OPS

AAA (2007): .278/.322/.428; .751 OPS

AAA (2008): .287/.356/.497; .853 OPS (181 ABs)

Its one thing if a guy stalls out and doesn't improve, but its another if hes showing progress (however slow it is). What hurt him the most was playing only a single season at AA, the most important level for any prospect's development. He badly needed a second go at the level but was instead promoted to AAA.

4) Hes only 25. He has a ton of baseball in him.

Theres a chance he could develop into a Orlando Cabrera or Julio Lugo type of hitter, a lot of ask considering his weak minor league statline, but still a chance. The league average SS bats at roughly a .715 OPS clip, so that would make Andino one of the better SS in the league (when factoring in his defense). Next season maybe him and Izturis could become starters 1A and 1B, see how he does, and reassess things then when Izturis's contract is up.

So what do you say guys, am I being too optimistic? The chances of him being a scrub are far greater than him amounting to anything, but at the very least hes showing flashes of having a long future with the O's.

Things have appeared oddly quiet for the biggest slugger on the free-agent market. That would be Adam Dunn, who may find his value isn't quite what he had hoped (though we have to believe he doesn't actually expect the $100 million that ex-Reds teammate Bronson Arroyo says he's expecting).

The Nationals, who have been in on many big names (including Maryland native Mark Teixeiraand Maryland resident A.J. Burnett), could be a possibility. Nationals GM Jim Bowden is said by baseball people to love Dunn, who hit .236 with 100 RBIs and 40 homers last season.

A few other teams might look Dunn, as well. He is the most consistent 40-homer hitter in baseball. How consistent? Well, he's hit exactly 40 home runs for four years running. And the year before that he hit 46, giving him a grand total of 206 homers in the last five years.

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/27101-top-free-agent-slugger-may-come-cheap

 We haven't talked about this guy in a  while. Yeah hes not as good as Tex, but hes almost on the same level. MacPhail should be considering Dunn as plan B if they don't get their main targets. But Dunn and his agent are probably waiting for Tex and Manny to sign and set the market or something. Can't hurt to begin courting him to make him feel loved though. Did Wayne Krivsky have a good relationship with him? Maybe he could give Dunn a call...

Third base is typically a power position with those players expected to anchor their respective line ups. Teams are getting this average production out of their third base spot:

2006: .804 OPS

2007: .782 OPS

2008: .779 OPS

Mora on the other hand has given us the fantastic stats of:

2006: .733 OPS (18th out of 22 qualifed 3B)

2007: .759 OPS (14th out of 19)

2008: .691 OPS (21st out of 23)

I'm not an expert on fielding, but I believe it is the consensus here that hes on dreadful on defense. In fact in the latest Fielding Bible rankings, he got the second least votes in his position (only ahead of Chipper Jones).

This year, the only two 3Bs that are (barely) worse than MelMo is Jack Hannahan in Oakland and Bill Hall with the Brewers. Hannahan was simply filling in for Eric Chavez and no longer starts, and Hall was recently displaced by Russell Branyan. Due to that, and his 2/8 steals rate and terrible defense, we have the absolute worst 3B in the league on our hands. And this clown is our #3 hitter!!!!! Can't Trembly look past this respect/seniority bull crap and bat him lower in the line up or something? I would say bench him, but we know that won't happen. Mora, outside of a few big hits, has been killing this team in every plausable way and something needs to be done.

A lot has been made in the Sun and on the broadcasts that Markakis isn't getting anything to hit, which is completely true. We all knew that Tejada's departure would limit the amount of good pitches he sees, but this is worse than I thought. His 1 HR and two 2Bs thus far are the result of pitchers not giving him anything down the  plate.Opposing pitchers would simply rather go after Millar and Huff, and I don't blame them at all.

As of now, Nick as 12 walks in 13 games (for a robust .473 OBP), which leads the AL. Our CC community projection predicted that he would draw 72 walks all season, now we have legitimate reason to believe he'll break 100 and have a .400+ OBP.

As long as Brian Roberts is still around and getting on base, I see no reason that this trend can't continue. We will just have to deal with the fact that he might not clear 20 HRs this season.

Can't say Nick isn't a trooper though:

"I'm seeing a lot more of 3-1, 3-2 off-speed pitches, but that's how it's going to go," he said. "I don't mind. I'll take the walks all day long and give more opportunities for guys like Millar and Huff to drive in runs."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.osnotes13apr13,0,4920076.story

For those of you that haven't heard, Alex Rios signed a $64 million, six-year contract extension with the Jays. It breaks down as:

1. 2009: $5.9 million (arbitration year)
   
2. 2010: $9.7 million (arbitration year)
   
3. 2011: $12 million (free agency years begin)
   
4. 2012: $12 million
5. 2013: $12.5 million
6. 2014: $12.5 million
7. 2015: $13.5 million option
   

He also has a full no-trade clause for 2009-2010, and a partial one after that.

So if Rios entered the market as a free agent, he would have received a 4 year, $49 million contract, a fair price. Most outlets say that Toronto did pretty well in this contract.

I bring this up because its never too early to think about locking up Markakis. Right now, him and Rios are pretty much the same player, so the free agency years should be about the same price if an extension were to occur.

But lets say Markakis steps up his game and becomes a .900 OPS ish type of player, then his free agent salary would probably be $15 million+.

Due to his greek heritage and good looks, I have absolutely no doubt that Angelos will pay whatever it takes to retain him, but some major cash could be saved if they move to lock up Nick within the next year or two. Some might say a long term deal this early is a risk, which it certainly is. But lets face it, in the fickle world of baseball, Markakis is as sure of a thing as it gets in terms of young players.

The club outrighted Eider Torres, Val Majewski and Adam Stern from AAA today. This being a week after they did the same J.R. House, Gustavo Molina and Rob Bell. And Victor Zambrano and Jaret Wright before that.

I love the direction MacPhail is taking. These guys  were all garbage and everyone knew it. They had no potential and chances of them ever helping the MLB roster was non existant. Hopefully they start getting rid of more players to make room for some guys with actual upside, as opposed to hanging on to these quadruple A players for years.

Coming into this season, I hope none of you were crazy enough to predict a return to glory for Huff. My expectations for him was a 20 HR, 80 RBI, .800 OPS type of season. Though a little short on all counts, he basically performed the way I expected him too. Huff was a total disaster for the first half, but as advertised, turned in a very strong 2nd half of the season. For better or for worse, he was basically the same caliber of hitter Tejada was this year. Now to compare him to other players at his positions:

Huff's statline:

.284/.337/.448, .786 OPS

Average 2007 AL 1B:

.267/.347/.443, .790 OPS

Average 2007 AL DH:

.267/.354/.446, .799 OPS

For all intents and purposes, Huff was an average player this year. At his $4 million salary this season, thats not really a bad thing.

If the FO wants to make him a bargain, they should somehow get rid of Mora and let Huff put up those numbers at the softer 3B position.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-osnotes0729,0,3821877.story?track=rss

If the deal is to happen, the O's would likely receive 2 midlevel prospects. The guys at mlbtraderumors.com speculate that one of the players could be Matt Murton. Doesnt make much sense for the Cubs, but I would be ecstatic if a deal like that were to happen. Both teams have made a ton of deals in the past and have a good relationship. Jay Payton sucks and I would be very happy to see him go.

I mean the O's were never in the sweepstakes in the first place, seeing as how they havent been mentioned with Teixeira the past 2 weeks. But according to Rosenthal, the Braves offer is as following:

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, LHP Matt Harrison and SS Elvis Andrus

The Angels are also in the mix, offering a package of Casey Kotchman and a pitcher (Nick Adenhart, Ervin Santana and Joe Sanunders).

The Dodgers have also been involved with a package centered around James Loney.

The Orioles have absolutely nothing in their farm system to counter these deals (besides Markakis, but trading him for Tex would be a lateral move at best considering everything). Tex was a long shot in the first place, and looks like the O's have no chance. Lets pray he hits free agency instead of signing an extension with the team he is traded to.

I was riding the METRO train home from work today and was reading my daily edition of the Washington Post. They usually have a section called the "Blog Log" where they take relevant quotes from blogs all over the net. Seeing a quote about Perlozzo wasn't surprising, but I pleased to see that it was from our very own Camden Chat. It doesnt specify who posted it the comment, but its good enough. I scanned it for all of you too see.

With all the talk on this blog and local newspapers about "wholesale" changes, I couldn't help but think of the last time the Orioles tried to blow it up and redo the team. The 2000 Orioles had one of the highest payrolls in the league, with Albert Belle being the highest paid player in baseball and the likes of Ripken, Mussina, Erickson and Brady Anderson getting top salaries. The Orioles were sleep walking through another season and on July 28th, 2000, their record sat at 43-57, in which then Peter Angelos ordered Sid Thrift to trade away the best players with expiring contracts. Due to this last minute decision, Thrift only had a mere 3 days to trade away key components of the team and get prospects that would be the nucleus of future. The unprepared Thrift was forced to follow Petey's strict orders and had no time for lengthy trade talks, scouting nor negotiations with multiple clubs. And the results were disastrous.

July 28, 2000

-Traded Mike Bordick to New York Mets in exchange for Leslie Brea, Pat Gorman, Mike Kinkade and Melvin Mora.

The Bordick trade was pretty much the only success here. Leslie Brea and Pat Gorman were solid pitching prospects that ended up out of the system by 2 years. Mike Kinkade was a decent utility man for us in 2001 before being released. The real prize was Melvin Mora. Even though he is  absolutely dreadful nowadays, 2003-2005 he gave us some of the best offensive production the franchise has ever seen.

July 29, 2000

-Traded Harold Baines and Charles Johnson to Chicago White Sox in exchange for Miguel Felix, Juan Figueroa, Brook Fordyce and Jason Lakman.

As for the Baines/Charles Johnson trade, this blew big time. Johnson was having a monster season and Baines was effective as usual, both were free agents and these guys were our best trade bait. What did we get for them? Miguel Felix was an "electric arm," but he was out of the organization within 2 years. Juan Figueroa was a 25 year old flame thrower who had a 3.40 ERA in AA ball, but once he got to the Orioles, he lost his stuff and was out of baseball totally by 2002. Jason Lakman had a minor league ERA over 5, had no idea why the O's wantedd him. He only spent 2 more years in baseball. Brook Fordyce was putting up solid numbers in part time play for the Sox, and the Orioles were duped into thinking he was a solid franchise catcher. Predictably, he floundered when given a full time gig and spent the next 3 years as a bench player for the O's.

-Traded Mike Timlin and cash to St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Chris Richard and Mark Nussbeck.

Timlin was a veteran reliever (and still is), he was struggling but still had a lot of value. Chris Richard was a 26 year old 1B/OF who was putting up  great stats in the minors but was blocked by McGwire, Ray Lankford, Jim Edmonds, and JD Drew on the Cardinals. Richard was expendable so the Cardinals did away with him. Richard hit at an .898 OPS with 13 homers for the last 2 months of the year. He looked like a real cornerstone for the future. But in his first full year in 2001, he regressed to a .770 OPS, still perfectly respectable. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his career and he was later traded for Jack Cust.

July 31, 2000

-Traded Gabe Molina and B.J. Surhoff to Atlanta Braves in exchange for Trent Hubbard, Fernando Lunar and Luis Rivera.

Man was this painful. BJ Surhoff loved the city, the fans and the organization. The love was mutual, as he was a fan favorite. We all remember the tear soaked press conference when the trade was announced. BJ was one of our best and most consistent players, trading him was painful in every way, so the package for him better had been good. Luis Rivera was the centerpiece of the trade, and the best prospect in the entire fire sale. He was supposed to be the next Mariano Rivera, as he was a relative of him. Only 22 years old, and put up dominating seasons in Rookie ball and A ball. He was striking out guys at about a 11 K/9 clip. Baseball America ranked him as 51st best prospect in the entire league. He even made the Brave's major league roster out of spring training despite never pitching above the A level. He pitched about 5 games with the Braves, but had to be sent all the way down to Rookie ball to "work out some kinks." Later in the year he got called up to AAA but posted an ERA of 8.06. Something was wrong with the kid, but of course the Orioles didn't seem to know/mind. He was clearly damaged goods but the trade went through. Rivera threw a total of 8.2 innings for the Orioles and never threw another pitch.

-Traded Will Clark and cash to St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Jose Leon.

Will Clark was old and on the brink of retirement, so he had little value. The Cardinals traded for him to fill in for an ailing Mark McGwire. Clark went on to hit .345 for the Cardinals and then retired on a high note. Jose Leon was mediocre in ever sense possible. No need to even discuss him.

So there we have it, we gave away our starting SS, 1B, DH, C, LF, and setup man. In all, 28% of the our active roster (25 man) was gone. We received 7 pitching prospects and every single one of them flamed out before reaching the majors. The position players outside of Mora were garbage for various reasons. This sequence of trades was a complete and utter fiasco and pretty much represents the past 9 years of futility nicely. Unfortunately, nothing has changed since then. If a fire sale were to take place this year, it cant be as bad as this one...

After the Arod grand slam, he dominated for 8 appearances. Then the game against Boston came and he gave up the Wily Mo grand slam. But Ray kept his cool and went on to pitch well for the next 6 appearances. Well then came the Mothers Day Massacre. Ray has once again rebounded and pitched well the past two weeks. But its been 6 appearances since his last meltdown, the time is ripe for his next one.

Check out his game log:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7577/gamelog;_ylt=Av6LH.51K6ndzyN.aWUew.GFCLcF

at least hes consistent.

Leo Mazzone. If Perlozzo is canned, theres absolutely no doubt that his best bud will leave with him. It would be a PR disaster considering how hyped Mazzone was coming in and how highly he is still regarded.

Despite the bullpen woes (well Baez mainly) and the walks, the O's pitching has been pretty good. 6th in the AL with a 4.31 ERA. If they had any semblance of a line up (or managerial aptitude), the O's would be a .500 team, maybe a few games over at the end of the season.

Mazzone is doing a pretty good job, he just needs more time. Bedard is now a strikeout machine, Danny Cab's walks are at a controllable level, Jeremy Guthrie came out of no where, and hes even extracting something useful from Trachsel and Burres.

So yes, Perlozzo sucks and should have been fired a long time ago, it just blows that Mazzone has to be attached to him.

1. Daniel Cabrera
   
2. AJ Burnett
   
3. Adam Loewen
   
4. Vicente Padilla
   
5. Boof Bonser
   
6. Steve Trachsel
   
7. Tim Wakefield  
   
8. Andy Pettitte
   
9. Erik Bedard
   
10. Edwin Jackson

23. John Parrish
    
24. Brian Burres