SB Nation User Blog: UNFNOLE

Slowing it Down: Laying the wood on 3rd and Long

UNFNOLE — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:57:07 -0000

For weeks I was working on a big piece about the defense. Compiling numbers and analysis to show you just how bad we were. Morris made an easy decision by taking over as the defensive play-caller and things have started to change. There are many factors working in this, the offenses we have played versus whether or not the play-calling has improved. Regardless, the numbers are light-years better.

Over the season the Bucs were allowing opponents to convert on over 40% of their third-down conversions. It was good enough for 22nd in the league. However, the past 3 weeks it has improved to 34%, which is about where the 7th and 8th ranked teams are. That is tremendous. This weeks slow-motion is a 3rd and 7 for the Panthers from their own 23 Yard line.

Notice how tight the Panthers team is to the ball. They have a single-set back with Two WR to the top and Charly Martin along with TE Daunte Rosario at the bottom of your screen. The Bucs are confusing me slightly, but it seems they are in some sort of Cover 3 or Cover 4 Defense. The CB's are loose and both release the WR to their side. Their is a S deep but Tanard Jackson doesn't seem concerned about covering anything deep. The LB's first step is back and they are getting their drops, which is about 5 yards and curl. Also look at the DL. Jimmy Wilkerson is lined up as a DT. This is something we would have never seen a month ago. They all get a nice pass rush, but it is a fast-developing play and only a 3 step drop.

Daunte Rosario and Steve Smith steak down the field while Muhammad runs a 15 yard Corner and Charly Martin comes right across the face of the linebackers. My guess is Muhammad is the first option in this. Take away the S, suck the linebackers in and hit Muhammad for a first down. Barber does a nice job of taking this option away. Martin is wide open, but intentionally. The Linebackers know that the Panthers must get the first down. Ruud stays in his zone taking away Rosario as an option. They are giving the underneath and protecting the field. This is also evident by the reaction (or lack there-of to Stewart as a dump off. He was wide open as well. Tanard Jackson makes an incredible read and jumps this route quickly. Matt Moore stared down Martin (watch his head, it barely moves). Jackson, who isn't known as a big hitter, lays an incredible hit on Martin and stops him 2 yards short of the first down.

What I take from this: Morris trust his defense to make plays. He gives Carolina options and knows his LB's and Safetys can make a tackle underneath the First Down when called upon.

Happy Thanksgiving!

UNFNOLE — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:24:25 -0000

On behalf of the Buc 'Em staff, I want to wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving. We all have a lot to be thankful for. Enjoy time with your friends and family. Enjoy food and football.

We are thankful to you for being faithful readers, an excellent community and enthusiastic Buc fans. We are also all thankful for our Soldiers and their families who make the many sacrifices to protect our Freedom and Liberty so that we may enjoy trivial things such as a miserable Bucs season or a Super Bowl Ring.

Regarding the Bucs, what are you thankful for this year?

Be safe, be lazy and be thankful! Gobble Gobble.

Bucs sign former college star Rudy Carpenter

UNFNOLE — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:54:48 -0000

Bucs sign former college star Rudy Carpenter

Look at this more of an emergency option since Leftwich has been out.

Rudy is a rookie who was one of the most efficent PAC-10 Passers of all time and holds the Pac-10 record for most efficient season from a QB. That's good company (Palmer, Leinart, Rodgers, Olsen, B. Huard, etc). He was signed from the Cowboys practice squad.

Slow it Down: A Cadillac Bus?

UNFNOLE — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:08:12 -0000

When you think of Carnell Williams you surely don't think of a big, powerful back. Williams has great vision and some quick steps, but is 5-11, 215. In this weeks slow-motion rewind you will get a glimpse while even after 2 knee surgeries Williams remains as the starter of the Bucs.

We look at a 2nd and 5 from about the 8 yard line (in High Quality, Slow Motion. Enjoy).

Pre-Snap: The Bucs line up in their most used set (from observation, not from facts) 3 WR SingleBack Formation. One of the tip-offs that this is probably a run to the right hand side is that John Gilmore is in. Clayton is lined up-top to the short-side with Stroughter and Stovall at the bottom of your screen.

On the other side of the ball, the 'Fins are lined up in a 4-3 (I believe they run a base 3-4) with Jason Taylor at RDE. In this set they have shifted Crowder to the Mike, brought Yeremiah Bell up as the Sam and shifted Reggie Torbor over to Will. They have a LB shift on to the wide-side of the field, mainly because Tyron Culver shades the open area. They are in a soft man coverage from what I can tell.

Play: Remember the philosophies of zone-schemes? There is no hole that Williams is going towards. Instead he is using his excellent vision to figure out what the defense is giving him. While the line does a good job, Williams is at an extreme disadvantage. They crashed the zone he was looking to use. Davin Joesph and Jeremy Trueblood put a great double team on Randy Starks who does everything in his power to get off of it. Faine squares up to his left and seals off Phillip Merling. Zuttah pulls and finds the first man, Channing Crowder. This may look routine, but it is a very heads up move by Zuttah. He could have easily continued on and gotten to Bell, who looked as if he had the best chance to make the play. He understands though that Bell is coming from the backside and will have to get his entire body on Williams if he wants to make the play. In slow-motion you can almost see Zuttah's thought process. He looks towards Bell and quickly cuts back up into the hole. Donald Penn is 1 on 1 with Jason Taylor, which he completely shuts down. If you want a Buccaneer to vote into the pro-bowl, Penn is the guy. He is absolutely dominant this year in the pass-blocking and the Bucs rank 5th running the ball off the Left Tackle. Penn is an absolute stud.

Williams goes to the only opening he sees without bouncing it (which is staying disciplined. Not something you see often in running backs). I have pointed this out before, but watch the fundamentals of Williams. He knows he's going to get hit so he get's low. "Low-Man wins." He puts his shoulder pads right into the chin of Tyron Culver and absolutely demolishes him. It helps that Faine stays with his block and essentially tackles his man into Culver (If you watch closely I am pretty sure Starks wraps up the legs of Culver, possibly thinking it was Williams. Regardless, Williams knows how to win those physical battles. He also knew that he had about 3 yards to finish the play, and he stretches for the end-zone, but not before taking another shot from Vontae Davis. I don't recall this play being reviewed, which is probably a good thing. Williams was a yard short, but who cares.

Slowing it Down - An ad lib by the Bucs earns big yardage

UNFNOLE — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 12:12:38 -0000

It's that time friends, for another edition of Slowing it Down. This week we are back to analyzing an offensive play.

This week we look at a play in which the Bucs are lined up in Shotgun. They have 3 WR, with the strength to the wide side of the field (K2 and two WR). It looks like Stovall, though I can't see the white numbers is line up at the bottom of the screen. DWard in the backfield.

The Packers are in a 3-3-5 look. It's an obvious passing down (3rd and 10) so that makes sense. Nick Barnett shows blitz. They are in man coverage with S help over top. However, I think Clay Matthews is supposed to be manned up on Ward. However, he penetrates the line (which throws me off about his coverage. If he were in man he would sit down) and blitzes all out. Jeff Faine gets a chip on Matthews and the sprints downfield...which is a penalty in most cases. By the time the ball was thrown he was 15 yards downfield. Regardless, he doesn't get flagged.

Josh Freeman is under heavy pressure, but it's from straight up the middle. The defensive line gets absolutely no penetration. He uses a pump fake to try and freeze the blitz. It successful on Matthews. Watch how Matthews yanks up (briefly). This give Freeman the option to go to his dominant side, the right. The Bucs have to WR run Post routes while two others sit down short. This give Derrick Ward a wide open, middle of the field. Freeman delievers a very nice pass to Ward.

Ward looks the ball in and turns up field. I would have been satisfied with him being tackled. GNB had him dead to rights. Maybe the player with the best opportunity to make the tackle is Nick Collins. Clayton makes a spectacular play and cuts back and gets a phenomenal chip on Collins. This spurs Ward to an extra 15 yards. My only problem on this play is that Ward continued straight up field. If he cuts it back outside, it gives him an extra couple of steps to regain his balance and possibly go for a touchdown.

This is a very well designed pass play that was spure by Freemans ability to make a few steps outside and go downfield. I couldn't find much wrong with Freemans mechanics other than his inordanitely long stride in his drop back.

Quarterback Cliches I Hate

UNFNOLE — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 02:04:46 -0000

I've just been reading a lot of nonsense and excitement this past week mostly stemming from Freemans OK game against GNB. Here are some cliches that are used by sportscasters and fans alike that need to be squashed. They mean absolutely nothing.

"He sure does have a lot of poise." - I think the only thing that is going to keep someone from saying this about a quarterback is if he literally urinates himself on national TV. It's said when quarterbacks stand in the pocket and wait for plays to develop (their job). It's said when quarterbacks leave the pocket and throw the ball. It's said when they decide to throw it away. It's said when a quarterback audibles. It's said when they take the field. It's a bunch of garbage speak that means absolutely nothing.

"He wants to be a Quarterback first and run second." What fast, scrambling quarterback is this not said about? Of course they want to be a quarterback first, because it's the only way they can market themselves to potential employers. They say it because it's what people want to hear. There is nothing wrong with being a scrambling quarterback, just own it. Stop trying to be Dan Marino when you are Randall Cunningham.

"The TE is a young quarterbacks security blanket." - I get why 'they' say this. It's essentially a big WR that in theory shouldn't be deep downfield. However, I have never seen any numbers to back it up. Frankly, I think it's more dangerous considering you are throwing over the middle where anything can happen.

"The coaches love his strong arm." - First, Chad Pennington is the only one with a weak arm. Second, what does this mean? Does this mean he can zip it like Brett Favre, or does this mean he throws a good deep ball. Lastly, Is this good? Do you want a quarterback who relies on his strength to complete passes? I don't think that works a lot of times. Sure, extra zip helps in certain situations, but it first takes an intelligent quarterback to make these kind of decisions. I want a High football IQ Quarterback. They succeed at a much higher rate.

What are your pet peeves?

History Says our Win will come in.....

UNFNOLE — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:24:24 -0000

Out of curiosity I traced all of the teams that went 0-7 in the last 20 years. I wanted to know what the average week they got their win was and how many games (on average) they won. I know this has no implications on our season, but my thought behind this was there has to be a breaking point. I wanted to find that. At some point teams are able to put it together enough to come out on top for at least 1 week. Below is a chart that tracks all of these teams.

Year	Team	Game Won	Total Wins
89	Cowboys	9th Game	1
91	Colts	10th Game	1
93	Bengals	11th Game	3
94	Bengals	9	3
96	Falcons	9	3
96	Jets	9	1
97	Bears	8	4
97	Colts	11	3
98	Panthers	8	4
99	Browns	8	2
00	Chargers	12	1
02	Bengals	8	2
07	Dolphins	9	3
07	Rams	14	1
08	Bengals	9	4.5
08	Lions	0	0
Avg		10	2

The Lions skew the averages a bit, but if the averages tell us anything it says the Bucs will get their win in Week 11 (10th game) against the Saints. Obviously, I wouldn't play the averages on this, but it gives us an expectation that we should win a game between Weeks 10-13. The numbers also say that the average team to go 0-7, wins at least two games. I don't think this is unreasonable.

Again, I do think their is a tipping point. It obviously includes a lot of variables (opponent, injuries, etc), but we'll see it come at some point. Just be patient.

Rumor Substantiated

UNFNOLE — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:57:36 -0000

Rumor Substantiated

Buc Wild reported on this last week. Many dismissed it as a baseless rumor. It has now been confirmed by the Head Man himself.

Inside the Play: Going Deep

UNFNOLE — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:48:30 -0000

Another edition of Inside the Play: Slow-Mo. Thanks again to Niko for putting this together. Instead of talking a lot about the play today, we will look as Josh Johnson's mechanics and some fundamentals at other positions.

***Jump Now***

The Bucs are in Shotgun 3 WR Set with Kellen Winslow lined up to the left. Derrick Ward is lined up in the backfield in pass protection. The Patriots are in a 3-3-5 (presumably since we never see the 11th guy). All 3 LB's show blitz or man coverage and back off. Before we get into JJ's mechanics, lets look first at the pass-blocking.

Donald Penn is a pro-bowl caliber LT. He has gone up against the best DE's in the league and has shut them down. Watch how fast he reacts to the snap. He wisely doesn't wait for other OL to react or even for the ball to be snapped but trusts JJ and Faine and listens for the snap-count. Now watch his footwork. It is the most integral part of being a good offensive lineman. He has no wasted steps. His left foot goes back first with no hesitation. It's also a very long stride to make sure he doesn't allow any outside moves initially. While he gets his pad level very high, he is able to move quickly and the drop his shoulder right before contact. He does not cross his feet and he has perfect balance. You will also see he initiates the contact and stays square to Banta-Cain. This is a must. He is able to get his hands inside without having to fight for position. He stands Tully Banta-Cain (hows that for a name?) up with the help of Jeremy Zuttah. Zuttah has come over after waiting for any type of delayed blitz. Penn doesn't need any help, but to avoid a verbal beating from the coaches he gets his body on someone. On the other side of the ball Davin Joesph does a nice job of not allowing any penetration while Trueblood seals the End. It looks like JT may be beat, but he does excellent work of riding the outside shoulder of Ty Warren (?). Jeff Faine (who makes a good snap) isn't sure if the LB's are blitzing so he stays at home. Both are playing tight to the LOS and it looks like 1 may be a spy on JJ and the other is Manned-up against Ward.

Johnsons mechanics have improved from when he was in college. First, his footwork looks fine. He seems to take a lot of comfort steps (almost like baby steps just so he can keep moving). When he wants to throw he steps up into the pocket. It is hard to see his eyes, but you will be able to notice slight movements of the helmet. First he looks left, then checks his eyes down to Winslow and then looks at his intended target the whole time, Antonio Bryant. Now, he has a very long windup, which on man-coverage and a deep ball isn't going to hurt him. He doesn't leave the ball down for long-enough to make a difference. However, look at this picture from when he was at SDSU.

via www.signonsandiego.com

What do you notice? The ball is so far away from his body. Not only does this kill leverage and strength, but it also kills your shoulder. Whether it was Gruden's staff or this Olsen who fixed this, it is clearly change. The ball in the video is perfect. It is over his pads and is parallel to his head. He steps into the throw very non-chalantly and has a beautiful follow-through, doing what coaches call "Pronating" the hand (rotating it so the palm faces outwards). This gives it more velocity and a better spiral.

Because there is no S cheated towards Bryant it allows JJ more freedom in his throw. He leads Bryant slightly inside. You will notice Bryant cuts more inside than is necessary. That is a veteran WR move. He does that because A) The CB is not looking for the ball, he is watching Bryant. B) So he can get seperation when the ball gets there. He looks in the pass and 6 points is the result.

And then the crazy "Pirate Guys" greet him at the back of the end-zone, again. Who are those dudes?

Bigger Hoax?

UNFNOLE — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:44:05 -0000

Bigger Hoax?

Michael Clayton or Balloon Boy? Funny picture!