SB Nation User Blog: UNFNOLE

History Says our Win will come in.....

UNFNOLE — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:24:24 -0000

Out of curiosity I traced all of the teams that went 0-7 in the last 20 years. I wanted to know what the average week they got their win was and how many games (on average) they won. I know this has no implications on our season, but my thought behind this was there has to be a breaking point. I wanted to find that. At some point teams are able to put it together enough to come out on top for at least 1 week. Below is a chart that tracks all of these teams.

Year	Team	Game Won	Total Wins
89	Cowboys	9th Game	1
91	Colts	10th Game	1
93	Bengals	11th Game	3
94	Bengals	9	3
96	Falcons	9	3
96	Jets	9	1
97	Bears	8	4
97	Colts	11	3
98	Panthers	8	4
99	Browns	8	2
00	Chargers	12	1
02	Bengals	8	2
07	Dolphins	9	3
07	Rams	14	1
08	Bengals	9	4.5
08	Lions	0	0
Avg		10	2

The Lions skew the averages a bit, but if the averages tell us anything it says the Bucs will get their win in Week 11 (10th game) against the Saints. Obviously, I wouldn't play the averages on this, but it gives us an expectation that we should win a game between Weeks 10-13. The numbers also say that the average team to go 0-7, wins at least two games. I don't think this is unreasonable.

Again, I do think their is a tipping point. It obviously includes a lot of variables (opponent, injuries, etc), but we'll see it come at some point. Just be patient.

Rumor Substantiated

UNFNOLE — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:57:36 -0000

Rumor Substantiated

Buc Wild reported on this last week. Many dismissed it as a baseless rumor. It has now been confirmed by the Head Man himself.

Inside the Play: Going Deep

UNFNOLE — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:48:30 -0000

Another edition of Inside the Play: Slow-Mo. Thanks again to Niko for putting this together. Instead of talking a lot about the play today, we will look as Josh Johnson's mechanics and some fundamentals at other positions.

***Jump Now***

The Bucs are in Shotgun 3 WR Set with Kellen Winslow lined up to the left. Derrick Ward is lined up in the backfield in pass protection. The Patriots are in a 3-3-5 (presumably since we never see the 11th guy). All 3 LB's show blitz or man coverage and back off. Before we get into JJ's mechanics, lets look first at the pass-blocking.

Donald Penn is a pro-bowl caliber LT. He has gone up against the best DE's in the league and has shut them down. Watch how fast he reacts to the snap. He wisely doesn't wait for other OL to react or even for the ball to be snapped but trusts JJ and Faine and listens for the snap-count. Now watch his footwork. It is the most integral part of being a good offensive lineman. He has no wasted steps. His left foot goes back first with no hesitation. It's also a very long stride to make sure he doesn't allow any outside moves initially. While he gets his pad level very high, he is able to move quickly and the drop his shoulder right before contact. He does not cross his feet and he has perfect balance. You will also see he initiates the contact and stays square to Banta-Cain. This is a must. He is able to get his hands inside without having to fight for position. He stands Tully Banta-Cain (hows that for a name?) up with the help of Jeremy Zuttah. Zuttah has come over after waiting for any type of delayed blitz. Penn doesn't need any help, but to avoid a verbal beating from the coaches he gets his body on someone. On the other side of the ball Davin Joesph does a nice job of not allowing any penetration while Trueblood seals the End. It looks like JT may be beat, but he does excellent work of riding the outside shoulder of Ty Warren (?). Jeff Faine (who makes a good snap) isn't sure if the LB's are blitzing so he stays at home. Both are playing tight to the LOS and it looks like 1 may be a spy on JJ and the other is Manned-up against Ward.

Johnsons mechanics have improved from when he was in college. First, his footwork looks fine. He seems to take a lot of comfort steps (almost like baby steps just so he can keep moving). When he wants to throw he steps up into the pocket. It is hard to see his eyes, but you will be able to notice slight movements of the helmet. First he looks left, then checks his eyes down to Winslow and then looks at his intended target the whole time, Antonio Bryant. Now, he has a very long windup, which on man-coverage and a deep ball isn't going to hurt him. He doesn't leave the ball down for long-enough to make a difference. However, look at this picture from when he was at SDSU.

via www.signonsandiego.com

What do you notice? The ball is so far away from his body. Not only does this kill leverage and strength, but it also kills your shoulder. Whether it was Gruden's staff or this Olsen who fixed this, it is clearly change. The ball in the video is perfect. It is over his pads and is parallel to his head. He steps into the throw very non-chalantly and has a beautiful follow-through, doing what coaches call "Pronating" the hand (rotating it so the palm faces outwards). This gives it more velocity and a better spiral.

Because there is no S cheated towards Bryant it allows JJ more freedom in his throw. He leads Bryant slightly inside. You will notice Bryant cuts more inside than is necessary. That is a veteran WR move. He does that because A) The CB is not looking for the ball, he is watching Bryant. B) So he can get seperation when the ball gets there. He looks in the pass and 6 points is the result.

And then the crazy "Pirate Guys" greet him at the back of the end-zone, again. Who are those dudes?

Bigger Hoax?

UNFNOLE — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:44:05 -0000

Bigger Hoax?

Michael Clayton or Balloon Boy? Funny picture!

"It'll be good to get away from this for a little bit."

UNFNOLE — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:09:40 -0000

"It'll be good to get away from this for a little bit."

Barrett Ruud per St. Pete Times.

Indeed Barrett, Indeed.

Slowing it Down: Williams improvises

UNFNOLE — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:48:49 -0000

Apologies for being late with the Slow-Mo video. Here it is though. Enjoy Carnell Williams vision and cutback ability. While it's another run by Williams, you will see a lot of different things in this video than usual.

If the video is too large and intrusive to the website, make sure your webpage view is set to "Wide" and not "narrow." You can do this on the left-hand side of the site.

Pre-Play: The Panthers are in a 4-4 with a shift. You will see Peppers in a 3 technique on the left side (meaning he is on the outside shoulder of the guard (typically where you would see a DT). I believe it Damion Lewis who is lined up next to him in what looks like a 0, maybe a 1 technique (Heads up with the C or on his shoulder). Thomas Davis (of UGA fame) is very close to the LOS. It's almost as if the Panthers predict run here with their playcall. Na'ill Diggs is lined up as a Standup DE, with two linebackers still patrolling the middle of the field.

The Bucs line up in a two TE set with an I-Formation backfield. Graham is the lead blocker and Antonio Bryant is line up on the outside. Kellen Winslow is actually ineligible at this point as he is covered by Antonio Bryant.

Play: This is an inside zone-right call. Remember, in a zone-scheme there is no designated holes, rather zones. Unfortunately the Panthers stunt right into the zone. Peppers blows up Davin Joesph and Damion Lewis gets an excellent jump on the play, beating Faine to the zone. Because Faine is beat, the best he can hope to do is to seal off Lewis (hence Faine squaring his shoulders to the sideline). Donald Penn does an excellent job of allowing his guy to crash down and sticking with him. Block of the play goes to John Gilmore. Watch him get his body on Thomas Davis and drive him back about 10 yards. Unbelievable. However, you will notice, nobody touches the End. This is intentional. If the zone is called to the other side, the goal is to create a double team (which doesn't happen simply because of the amount of players Carolina has at the LOS) and allow the end to pursue assuming he will not make the play. Brayton is undersized, but also slow and is not very agile. He can't make this play.

Williams realizes the zone has been blown up and looks to cut back against the grain. He makes an excellent move to avoid Tyler Brayton and looks to getting to the sideline. Because the linebackers see the zone and flow towards the play, Williams has them beat. Good Fundamentals Lesson: Watch how low Williams is in the backfield. It makes him small, gives him leverage and allows him to see the holes developing. As soon as he gets past Brayton he comes out of his low run and has his pad level up high. This is how you garner speed.

Williams only real competition to getting to the end-zone has become Free Safety Charles Godfrey who Williams just flat-out beats the the corner. A play that was designed to go 4-6 yards, WIlliams turns into a 21 yard TD run.

Post Play: I didn't know Rafael Nadal and his capri wearing buddies were Bucs fans. Honestly, what guy wears capris?

2nd Half Defensive Failures

UNFNOLE — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 18:39:06 -0000

Watching the game this weekend I made a comment that the Bucs have lost games in the third quarter. We were consistently giving up big plays and long drives in the 2nd half.Going into half-time we have not been out of a game. The Eagles created the most separation (14 points). Two TD's certainly isn't too much to come back from. I am about to go into some numbers. We are going to look at Yards Per Play / Half. Before I took this on I made a hypothesis that it's going to be far higher in the second half. Does the evidence support this?

Because goal-line plays can skew the data, we will remove those from the equation. We will also remove turnovers and penalties as plays. Not because they aren't important, they are, but I want to know how our defense is performing on the 'average' play. Some things that can skew this 'study' are game plans, score and second-half strategies. We will go game by game.

Game 1 - Dallas Cowboys

First Half - 5.8 YPP / 30 Plays

Second Half - 12.8 YPP / 23 Plays

Game 2 - Buffalo

First Half - 6.8 / 30 plays

Second Half - 8.09 / 33 plays

Game 3 - NYG

First Half - 5.5 (I will admit in this game, while their YPP is rather low, they sustained long drives in the first half)

Second Half - 5.1 / 34 (Much of their 2nd team was in during the 4th Qtr)

Game 4 - Washington

First Half - 3.6 / 29 Plays

Second Half - 7.0 / 27 Plays

Game 5 - Philthy

First Half - 11 YPP / 20 Plays

Second Half - 3.9 / 29 Plays

Reason #47 to hate Philthy - They are ruining my 'study.'

Game 6 -Carolina Panthers

First Half - 5.1 YPP / 29 Plays

Second Half - 5.89 / 29 Plays

Total

First Half - 5.3

Second Half - 7.13 (Despite Philthy's Best Effort to destroy it)

That's almost a 2 yard difference per play. Again, long drives and big plays skew it both way, but they kind of cancel each other out. If you take out the two more dominant offenses (6 and 7th ranked) who had our number the entire game it shows a clear break-down of defense in the second half. So why is that?

I have a couple of theories I am working on.

A) Just as it does in college, size of the front 7 matters. Hayes, Black, Adams and Hovan are all fairly light. I am working on some research to see if the same theory that FSUncensored (thought it wont be as in-depth) has fits in the NFL.

B) Our defense is out-conditioned. However, in general teams (there are some players who don't live up to this) are equally conditioned in the NFL.

C) Strength / Talent

D) Gameplan. How does our gameplan change? Do we become less aggressive? Are we not making adjustments? If we are not making adjustments, our defense is being outcoached.

Whatever the reason, we can't reasonably expect to win games when folding on defense in the 2nd half. One of my favorite sites on SBNation is ThirdQuarterCollapse (The Magic Blog). The Magic were infamous for squandering away large halftime leads in the third quarter. While the Bucs have only led in one game (Washington) they have squandered away hopes of coming back by allowing long drives, big plays for touchdowns and terrible defense.

"Everybody has to hold themselves accountable because if you don't, this team is going to get...

UNFNOLE — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:45:00 -0000

"Everybody has to hold themselves accountable because if you don't, this team is going to get divided," Wilkerson said. "When a team gets divided, everybody is going to start pointing the finger at each other. Everybody is going to say the system is not working and the coach is not doing a good enough job - even though I don't personally agree with that. The coaches are going to start blaming the players and saying they are not tough enough mentally or physically. That is something that you don't want. I've seen it happen in Kansas City. You want to stay together and stay strong mentally and physically and continue to try to correct the things that have gone wrong in the games."

Jimmy WIlkerson per Pewter Report.

I have said before but the coaching staff main priority needs to be the locker room or this loss of a season will turn into another one next year.

Slow it Down: Confused Defense

UNFNOLE — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:47:57 -0000

More photos » by Mel Evans - AP

End Result of the play we dissect: Weaver's TD over Geno Hayes.

Browse more photos »

This week Inside the Play (courtesy of Niko) brings you a defensive failure. I do want to warn you this can be nauseating in slow-motion. This week we have some music to keep you from being bored! **The video will be inside of the thread due to its size and intrusiveness to the website. Enjoy*

Pre-Play: The very first split second of the play is cut-off, so I am not sure if there were stunts, an audible (which I would assume there wasn't) or what have you. However, you can still tell what formation they ended up in. The Eagles are in a standard I-Formation with Brent Celek (TE) to the Right. Desean Jackson is up top with Jeremy Maclin on the strong-side. LeSean McCoy is in the backfield along with Leonard Weaver.

The Bucs are in their base 4-3 defense. Tanard Jackson is cheating torwards the LOS (most athletic FS will do this often). Ronde Barber is up top covering Jackson.

Play: It's Play-Action. As you know, the goal is to freeze the S and LB's. Jackson runs what seems to be a post route while It looks like Celek and Maclin are running some sort of Wheel and Corner route, however whatever it was, was ran poorly. As they McNabb is making the play fake to McCoy it gives Weaver enough time to get to the 2nd level. From here he runs directly at the Mike and the runs straight for the sideline.

The Bucs act like they have never seen this before. First, watch Geno Hayes. He completely bites on the play action and realizes Weaver just ran right by him. If you watch the slo-mo enough you will get enjoyment from the move he makes to recover. However, look at the pocket. It was a 5 step-drop play and the closest DL to McNabb is Wilkerson...4 YARDS FROM HIM. The Defensive Line got completely manhandled here. Tanard Jackson gets a great jam on Weaver but then sees Jackson behind him. It def. looks like the Bucs are in man coverage so I am not sure why he reacts the way he does. This could be the result of absence from the team and not building a good on-the field rhythm with the other DBs. Because he pulls off of Weaver (which seems to clearly be Hayes man due to his reaction) Weaver now has a huge cushion and is wide open. McNabb wisely finds Weaver.

Because the WR ran everyone off of the sideline Weaver has only Hayes to beat. Hayes recovers well and covers a lot of ground, takes a good angle and makes a great effort after his missed assignment, but it's not enough. You will also clearly see a block in the back on Tanard Jackson, away from the play (which didn't impede Jackson from making a play, but regardless, it's still a penalty).

I am not sure how old all of the readers are. My guess is you vary in age. If you are in high school or younger playing football, watch Weavers fundamentals. He makes a crisp break to the sideline and gets their as quickly as possible. When he pulls the ball in, he makes sure it will be on his outside arm. If he keeps it inside, Geno Hayes has an excellent chance to create a fumble. He also doesn't leave his feet trying to "reach" for the end-zone. The second he leaves his feet he loses all power. He stays low and allows Hayes to tackle him into the end-zone. Very fundamentally sound.

The result is a 20 yard Touchdown to a FB who had 2 receptions for 14 yards coming into the game.

Bucs sign Freemans Former WR

UNFNOLE — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 20:29:00 -0000

Bucs sign Freemans Former WR

Yamon Figurs was a WR for KSU with Freeman. Check out the article to learn more. To make room for Figurs the Bucs released Brian Clark, who was a nice story and a hard worker but made little impact on the team. Good luck to both.