Perhaps the most pivotal matchup in Sunday's game against the Jets was how our backup center Casey Wiegmann, in his 13th season, would match up against someone who firstfan described as, "one of the best Nose Tackles in the entire NFL."  How would a 6'2 and 285 lbs Wiegmann match up against a 6’4” and 349 lbs Kris Jenkins?  The outcome of the game depended on it.

The answer? (drum roll please) 

As Broncoman reported in his "No Respect (and I like it that way)" post,

"Stat line for Jenkins: 0 tackles 3 assists". 

Or as Clark Judge from CBS Sports explained,

"...veteran center Casey Wiegmann, who in Sunday's 34-17 rout of the New York Jets did what nobody believed he -- or almost anyone, for that matter -- could, which was to handle Kris Jenkins...Wiegmann was nothing short of remarkable."  (thank you spock for the link to that article). 

WOW!!!  And it's not like the Broncos necessarily went out of their way to avoid Jenkins.  Now I'll admit that there were times in the game where, as John B from Gang Green Nation described,  "Jenkins and Sione Pouha threw Wiegmann around like a rag doll."  In the end Jenkins reportedly complemented Wiegmann on his heart and tenacity.  That sounds like admitting defeat to me. ;-)

Which got me thinking (scary I know)...who has been more essential to the Broncos success this year?  Okay, I'll give you Cutler and maybe a few other offensive players.  But would the Broncos really have had any chance this year if it wasn't for Wiegmann and the amazing job that he has done coming into a new system and backing up Tom Nalen, one of the best all-time centers in the game?  Simply put...I don't think so!

Now the youngin's on the O-line have gotten all the attention this year, and they certainly deserve it. However, it's time for Broncos fans everywhere to give a HUGE pat on the back to Casey Wiegmann, not just for this game but for his contribution all season. 

As Shanahan himself said about signing Wiegmann, "It was the smartest thing we've ever done."

Hello fellow MHRers and Happy Thanksgiving.

Benjamin Disraeli, a nineteenth century British politician and novelist, once proclaimed, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." (although the quote is frequently attributed to Samuel Clemens).  From Wikipedia, "The statement refers to the persuasive power of numbers, the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions."

With that in mind, I wanted to respond to an article written by Dave Krieger from Rocky Mountain News in which he suggests that the primary responsibility for the Broncos’ losses this year should be placed at the feet of Jay Cutler. Krieger writes,

"As Cutler goes, so goes his team. If you think turnovers are a good indicator of the Broncos' chances, you should check where they're coming from. Of the Broncos' 22 giveaways so far this year, 14 are Cutler's.

Or save time and just check his passer ratings:

In the Broncos' six wins: 137.5, 109.6, 93.3, 96.1, 107.9 and 106.4.

In the Broncos' five losses: 71.9, 77.8, 64.3, 60.7 and Sunday's 49.8, Cutler's worst game of the season."

Krieger concludes the article by stating,

"Whether Cutler cares to address the issue or not, the single biggest improvement the Broncos could make right now would be more professionalism, more maturity and more consistency from their quarterback."

The implication of the article is clear. When the Broncos lose it is the result of Cutler’s poor play and ‘immature’ decision making. But do the numbers really demonstrate what Krieger says they do?

According to NFL.com, a quarterback‘s rating (or ‘passer rating’) is calculated from a combination of: 1. Percentage of completions; 2. Average yards gained per attempt; 3. Percentage of touchdown passes; 4. Percentage of interceptions. However the site also explains,

"It is important to remember that the (quarterback rating) is used to rate passers, not quarterbacks. Statistics do not reflect leadership, play-calling, and other intangible factors that go into making a successful professional quarterback."

So what are some of those "intangible factors" that may absolve Cutler from bearing the primary burden for the Broncos losses this season?

The fact that Cutler’s QB rating is significantly lower in the losses than the wins is indisputable; however, whether it is from Jay’s poor play and immaturity is not as obvious. There are several factors that Dave seems to conveniently ignore that are contributing to Jay‘s lower QB rating that are outside of Jay‘s control. Many of which have been discussed at length here at MHR.

For example, Krieger is failing to take into account that having an inconsistent running attack and being forced to play from behind because of poor defensive play, among other things, is inevitably going to force any QB into situations where he is required to be reckless with the football. If he was not consistently in 3rd and long situation due to poor play calling or inadequate running on 1st and 2nd downs (or making up for dropped passes or blown routes) then he wouldn’t have to try to make those 10-15 yard passes in obvious passing situations that are prone to turnovers. For example, of Cutler’s 12 interceptions thrown this year, 9 of them came in games that the Broncos lost. Of those 9, 7 came on 3rd down. Of those 7 interceptions on 3rd down, the average yards to go was 10.14.

To make matters worse, the Broncos lead the league in dropped passes (as of the Atlanta game).

The rushing offense has also been significantly less effective in the games that the Broncos lost. They averaged 3.88 yards per carry in the losses versus 4.6 yards per carry in the games they won. Part of the problem is that they’ve had four injured RBs (five if you count Alrige) and are starting a FB at RB.

In addition, the play calling has been extremely unbalanced. In the five games that the Broncos have lost this season they have averaged 39 pass attempts per game compared to 22.2 rushing attempts per game. The emphasis on the passing game has allowed opposing defenses to focus almost exclusively on shutting down Cutler’s passes. This is largely the result of having to play from behind.

And what causes a team to play from behind? How about having the 28th ranked defense in both yards and points allowed per game? As you would suspect, the defense has been much worse in the losses. The Broncos have allowed an average of 31 points in the losses versus 24.5 in the wins.

They have averaged a turnover per game in the wins and averaged only .6 turnovers per game in the losses. In fact, the defense has been so poor at generating turnovers that seven NFL players single-handedly have the same number of interceptions as the entire Broncos defense (4). Worse yet, four players have more interceptions than the entire Broncos defense. This has led to a turnover ratio for the Broncos of -12.

Part of the poor play on defense has been the result of injuries; however, is it Cutler’s fault that six of our defensive back seven are backups? Or that the defensive line can not consistently pressure the opposing QB? Early fumbles by RB’s and WR’s have also caused the Broncos to play from behind early, particularly in the Kansas City and New England games.

Nevertheless, Krieger tries to use Cutler’s poor QB rating in the games the Broncos have lost to try to demonstrate that Cutler deserves the majority of the blame for those losses. This is the problem with using QB rating to demonstrate the quality of a quarterback’s play. He seems to have a point until we take into account that many of the factors that contributed to Jay’s low rating were well beyond his control. Certainly he deserves part of the blame for those losses...but not to the degree that Krieger is suggesting.

Ultimately, the assumption that a poor QB rating or interceptions are entirely the result of "immature" or poor play at QB is clearly faulty. However, I think that Krieger knows that. As he said in the article,

"Asked if he had an explanation for the ups and downs of the offense he runs, the Broncos' third-year quarterback replied:

"I do not. It's your guys' job to write it up."

Fair enough. So here it is: The heart of the Broncos' inconsistency is their quarterback. He personifies their split personality...

...After losses, he has nothing to say and considers accounting for the result an imposition. Every question is ridiculous. He mumbles a few quick answers and makes a rapid exit"

It occurs to me that Jay probably hurt Dave’s feelings by not giving him the time or detailed response that he thought one of his questions deserved and this is his way of getting back at him.

I should have realized that Krieger may not have been thinking clearly when he stated,

"Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers, to name three, make an obvious effort to be professional and responsive after losses, as if they see it as a test of their maturity."

Philip Rivers is his example of a mature NFL quarterback? Really?

Do you mean this Philip Rivers?

Not very mature Dave. I’d say Jay is not the only one that has some "growing up" to do.

This is a blatant plug for a SB blog that I have nothing to do with (except as a participant). I know it's hard to think about other sports in the midst of Football season; however, for the Nuggets fans out there, there is a great SB Blog called Pickaxe and Roll. The site manager Jeremy does an exceptional job with game summaries and keeping his readers well informed. The game threads are fun (although participation is still pretty limited).

If you do not currently follow the Nugs I'd say they're worth taking a Tuesday or Wednesday night to watch to see if you might enjoy it. The games are a lot of fun and with hometown favorite Chauncey Billups added to the lineup, via a trade for Allen Iverson, they are actually playing some somewhat tolerable defense (Broncos take note). They play the Cavs on Thursday on TNT which should definitely be a great game.

Anyway, as much as I've enjoyed my interactions at MHR and respect the community here, I thought that at least a couple of you might be Nuggets fans who hadn't thought about checking out Pickaxe and Roll .

We have all noticed two different Broncos offenses this year. We’ve raved about the high-potency, pass-happy, high scoring offense of the first few weeks before becoming accustomed to a Broncos offense that has difficulties moving the ball, commits frequent turnovers, can’t run the ball, can’t pass the ball, and is all around pretty dismal.

It has been said many times that the fate of a team is directly related to the play of the QB, and that seems particularly true with the Broncos. Just as we’ve seen two different Bronco offenses, we’ve seen two different Jay Cutlers. There seems to be Jekyll Jay and a Hyde Jay (remember Good Jake, Bad Jake?). Many of us commented on a pronounced change in his demeanor from the first couple of games starting as early as the New Orleans game.

So what’s going on? Why has Cutler gone from a passing juggernaut to an interception machine? Why is he suddenly throwing so many INTs? If Jay was struggling with his blood sugar would the Broncos organization let us know? If his finger is still hurt, would they really play Hackney? Has he lost his confidence? Is it the injuries? Is it the playcalling?  What’s the deal?

I still support Jay 100%; however, it seems clear that he and the offense are in a slump! So most importantly, as the offensive leader how can Jay get it turned around?

What do you think MHR?

NPR did an interesting piece today on a new offensive system.  This is a summary of the report:

Piedmont High School, a small school in Northern California, has garnered national attention recently for developing what some are referring to as a revolutionary offense called the A-11.   However, the offense is currently mired in controversy by those who claim it is a threat to traditional football.  In fact, North Carolina and a handful of other states have already banned the A-11 offense and the organization that establishes the rules for high school football nationally is currently reviewing it. 

The name A-11 is from the fact that all eleven players in a A-11 offense are eligible.  The creators of the offense discovered a loophole in the rulebook which allowed for this to be possible.  Ben Adler, author of the NPR article, explains, "Instead of everyone bunching up around the ball on the line of scrimmage, Piedmont's players spread out across the entire width of the field, in pods of three.  Several yards behind the middle pod, which includes a center and the ball, two quarterbacks wait for the snap — or, sometimes, a quarterback and a running back."  The goal of the offense is to have the opposing defense as confused as possible.

Here is a link to the NPR article:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95035232

And a YouTube video demonstrating the A-11 (sorry for the poor quality):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJOm-IJcbg0

After taking some time to ponder the Broncos 41-14 shellacking of the Raiders on Monday night, I’ve tried to assess exactly what we can fairly takeaway from the Broncos performance. I have watched the game a second time and have determined that very few definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Did we see the reemergence of the Broncos as one of the elite teams in the NFL? Or…did we see a Raiders team that is simply not ready to compete at an NFL level? There are clearly indications of both.

The Broncos offense looked unstoppable. As the three Mikes repeatedly pointed out, Denver could pretty much do whatever they wanted to against the Raiders defense. The Broncos offense looked good; however, the Raiders defense also just looked plain bad. They were not able to get any pressure on Cutler. The scheme was incredibly simplistic. The penalties were frequent and senseless. They had several blown coverages. In short, they beat themselves as much as Cutler and the Broncos beat them. Nevertheless, I think there is little doubt at this point that the Broncos offense is the real deal; however, it will not be that easy all season.

The Broncos defense was questionable.  The Raiders offense was often it’s own worst enemy. I think we really have learned little about the Broncos’ defense. They did not look particularly stout against the run. The Raiders frequently ran for over five yards on first and second down; on the other hand, the Broncos were undeniably stingier on third and fourth down and had a couple great stops. Either way, the run defense will clearly need to improve against a potent San Diego rushing attack on Sunday.

The Broncos pass defense was also suspect. Several times the Raiders had a wide open receiver get behind Denver’s coverage and the only thing that prevented an easy touchdown was a dropped pass or a slightly errant throw by Jamarcus Russell. The Broncos were able to get some pressure on Russell. They had two sacks and Russell was hurried most of the game. Once again, however, it is unclear if this is a sign of a Denver strength or an Oakland weakness. They made numerous unforced errors that they were simply unable to overcome.

In short, the Raiders are a mess. The coach hates the owner. The owner hates the coach. The coach hates the defensive coordinator. The defensive coordinator…well, you get the point. The team is very young at key positions and may have brought in a host of character concerns. Al Davis seems unwilling to allow Kiffin the discretion necessary to fully implement his vision and may not be willing to give him the time necessary either. Despite all of the preseason spending and optimism, the Raiders may very well still be the worst team in the NFL…perhaps by a significant margin.

This weekends match up against the Chargers will be a much more reliable test for this Denver Broncos team. It is extremely unlikely that San Diego will give Denver as much help as Oakland did in securing a victory. Denver’s defense will face a much more competent San Diego offense that will seek to exploit Denver’s shortcomings in rush defense and pass coverage. We will also face a defense that is significantly better. It is important that the Broncos and their fans do not become overconfident as they prepare for a Chargers team that will be a much better indication of how good the 2008 Broncos really are.

After watching the first two Broncos preseason games, it is clear that once again we can not count on our defensive line to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback. We saw our entire starting defensive line against Dallas, including DeWayne Robertson, and they were mostly ineffective. Dumerville did have one DOOMination and another hurry; however, the rest of the line did absolutely nothing against the pass. The good news is that they did look effective stopping the run. Nevertheless, it is clear that Slowik will have to incorporate a number of blitzing strategies to prevent our secondary from getting picked apart by quarterbacks with all day to find open receivers. I think we’ve seen a couple a subtle hints about how he will attempt to create pressure.

Obviously, one of the biggest concerns in blitzing is getting burnt by quick passes. Slowik will attempt to counter this in a couple of ways. The first is by playing one safety very deep. I was at the game on Saturday and one thing that viewers could not see on TV was that Denver was consistently placing McCree or another safety very deep while the rest of the team was lined up very close to the line of scrimmage (accounting for the improved run defense). Numerous fans at the game questioned why our safety would play so deep. I think it’s simply to act as a safety net against a defense that will be very aggressive when the regular season rolls around. If we do get beat over the top, we will have one deep player to hopefully prevent an easy touchdown.

The second strategy that we’ll see employed is related to the “show blitz” system that HT and others have discussed in depth. Part of that strategy is keeping the offense on its heels by never letting them know who is blitzing and who is dropping into coverage. Interestingly, there were several plays against the Cowboys where one of the defensive ends dropped into zone coverage. At least twice Dumerville dropped into a zone and Crowder did once or twice as well. On these plays, Denver overloaded one side of the offensive line and brought too many players, including safeties and linebackers, for the offense to account for in such a concentrated area. I find it an interesting concept that Slowik may be evaluating DE’s based in a small part on their ability to pass cover.

Finally, it will come as no surprise to anyone at MHR that Slowik has already shown an affinity for cornerback blitzes. Against Houston, Morton got a huge blind side sack when Denver brought a corner blitz from both sides of the field. I think we’ll see a good number of Bly, Bailey, and Foxworth sacks this year.

In terms of personel, I thought it was encouraging that Crowder ran several plays with the first team defense. Also, Moss made a few appearances on 3rd and longs and was actually one of the few Broncos to get some pressure against Dallas’ offensive line. It sounds like the Broncos might have a defensive line rotation in mind, much like Hockey lines, to keep the lineman fresh and best take advantage of each players strengths. Therefore, I don’t know that the concern about Crowder and Moss running with 2nd and 3rd string defenses is entirely warranted. Slowik may just be trying to distribute the talent between the lines.

So far it looks like our run defense is much improved. However, the passing defense has been suspect. Slowik will have to show that we have not replaced a poor run defense with a poor pass defense. I guess time will tell.