On the prowl for projections for the 2009 baseball season...

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If there's one thing everyone seems to agree on, it's that the A's won't make the playoffs with Bobby Crosby as the starting shortstop next year.  If there's one thing everyone can't agree on, it's who we should bring in to take Crosby's place...  Here's my case for Cliff Pennington

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Assuming the A's sign Rafael Furcal, our next step should be to use the rest of our budget to sign CC Sabathia. 

Let's start with the Furcal signing.  Assume a four-year, $40mm-$44mm deal, which is what everyone has Furcal signing for right now.  That would leave the A's with the following payroll numbers: 

STARTING LINEUP:  Suzuki (~$500K), Barton (~$500K), Ellis ($5M), Chavez ($11M), Furcal ($11M), Holliday ($13.5M), Sweeney (~$500K), Buck (~$500K), Cust (~$1.5M) . . . TOTAL:  $44M

BENCH:  Bowen (~$1M), Patterson (~$500K), Hannahan (~$500K), Davis (~$500K), Cunningham (~$500K) . . . TOTAL:  $3M

ROTATION:  Duke (~$3M), Gallagher (~$500K), Eveland (~$500K), G. Gonzalez (~$500K) . . . TOTAL: $5M

PEN:  Ziegler (~$500K), Devine (~$500K), Casilla (~$500K), Blevins (~$500K), Gray (~$500K), Brown (~$500K) . . . TOTAL: $3M

In other words, we're currently sitting around $55M for our 25-man roster, with a decent enough offense (could use one more power bat, but not necessary), a decent enough bench (thin, but you can only ask for so much bench depth), a great bullpen, and a weak rotation beyond Duke (and possibly Gallagher). 

According to everything I've read, Lew and Beane want to increase payroll to $80M this year.  That leaves us with $25M to spend.  Why not use that $25M to make a pitch for CC Sabathia? 

1.  He shifts everyone down a slot in our rotation, which puts people where they should be.  Duke, as a #2, is strong.  Gallagher, as a #3, is workable.  Then let Eveland, Gio, Braden, and others fight it out for spots #4 and #5. 

2.  We have a wealth of up-and-coming pitching talent.  Brett Anderson.  Trevor Cahill.  Michael Inoa.  James Simmons.  Vin Mazzaro.  Gio Gonzalez.  Josh Outman.  Fautino de los Santos.  To name a few.  CC anchors the rotation for the next six years, and these other guys fill out the rest of the rotation cheaply. 

With Furcal (and Holliday), I'd say we're a 79-to-84 win team.  Add CC, and we suddenly become a potential 86-to-90 win team, i.e., a contender.  CC doesn't hamstring us in the way he does other teams because we have so much young pitching that we can use for the next six years on the cheap. 

To me, it's a no-brainer.  Don't think it'll happen, but I think it should. 

Two moves for the A's.  

1.  Trade for Shea Hillenbrand.  
   
2.  Sign Eddie Guardado.  

HILLENBRAND
Is Hillenbrand the "big bat" we need?  Maybe.  He's not the traditional "big bat" that has been talked about on this board (i.e., Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko), but he might be a good bat to complement the other players in the A's lineup.  

The current A's lineup is stacked with high-OBP guys who don't get a lot of hits.  The A's were 6th in the AL in runs this year, 3rd in BB and 10th in hits.  Hillenbrand had 173 hits this year, which would have led the A's in that category (and his BABIP was .310, so his .290 AVG was supported by skills, not luck).  

Seems to me adding a hitter like Hillenbrand, who brings a tempered swing-first attitude to the plate would add something to this offense that it is currently lacking -- a guy who moves guys around the bases two or three at a time, rather than one at a time.  Hillenbrand had 267 total bases last year, which would have put him second on the A's behind Chavez.  This is the kind of hitter we need in our lineup...  We don't have the money for a big bat (unless we want to sacrifice other areas of the team), but we can't afford to try to patch up our glaring offensive weakness (the propensity to leave runners stranded) with another Bobby Kielty or Keith Ginter.  

Anyway, I'm picturing a lineup that looks something like this...  

2b Ellis
cf Kotsay
dh Hillenbrand
3b Chavez
ss Crosby
1b Johnson
lf Payton
rf Swish
c  Kendall (our "2nd leadoff hitter")

GUARDADO
The M's just declined Guardado's team option for 2006, which would have paid him $6.25M.  He has a player option for 2006 for $4.25, but it looks like he'll opt for free agency.  

I'm not sure whether he'd want to come back in a set-up role, but over the last five years you'd be hard-pressed to find a more consistently good relief pitcher.  3:1 K:BB ratio.  Sub-3.00 ERA the last four years.  He has been dominant against lefties over the last three years (.470 OPS) and decent against righties as well (.687 OPS).  I know, we've had our problems with former Seattle southpaws... but Guardado is basically a sure thing when he comes out of the pen, and Arthur Rhodes was clearly having problems before he came to Oakland.  

Of course, we'd have to worry about the Yankees, Red Sox, and every other big market team coming in and swarming over the left-handed RP... but you never know what motivates a guy.  Maybe he wants to stay on the West Coast (he was born in Stockton).  Maybe he doesn't want to play in NY or Boston.  Maybe he wants to help the A's win the World Series.  

The addition of Guardado would make our pen pretty darn nasty:  Street, Guardado, Duke, Calero, Kennedy and Cruz.  That's a good pen, with lots of options and matchup advantages.  

Plus, if we got Hillenbrand (who will probably cost about $5M next year), we'd have enough money to offer Guardado a two-year $10-11M contract (which is probably his approximate market value based on the fact that he's declining a $4.25M option and the M's declined his $6.25M option).  Based on what I've read in other diaries, I think that puts us at about $62-65M total payroll... which is right where we should be.  

Hey -- we're headed down to Phoenix this weekend to see the A's play.  It's my first time going to see the Elephants play in the desert and I'm wondering if anyone on the Nation has good ideas for places to hit after the games.  

We're looking for good bars with A's crowds (read: if I see some donkey ass in a Barry Bonds jersey or a Kirk Gibson jersey at my bar, I'll probably toss a barstool at his forehead).  We are also looking for restaurant suggestions, bars, watering holes, taverns, pubs, corner stores (where you can buy alcohol), kegs lying on the side of the street and anywhere else where I might be able to get a beer, while sitting next to a fellow in green and gold.  

Let me know if you've got any good ideas.  Maybe we'll see you down there.  I'll be the one lying face down on the bar with my credit card hanging out of the elastic of my boxers.  

STARTING LINEUP
C:  Kendall 26.5 / Molina 4.2 -- A's (22.3)
1B: Hatteberg 15.9 / Erstad 4.0 -- A's (11.9)
2B: Ginter 19.6 / Figgins 14.6 -- A's (5.0)
3B: Chavez 47.9 / McPherson 23.2 -- A's (24.7)
SS: Crosby 32.5 / Cabrera 17.8 -- A's (14.7)
LF: Byrnes 22.0 / Anderson 24.0 -- Angels (2.0)
CF: Kotsay 26.7 / Finley 20.9 -- A's (5.8)
RF: Swisher 14.7 / Guerrero 60.4 -- Angels (45.7)  
DH: Durazo 30.8 / Kotchman 21.1 -- A's (9.7)  

TOTAL:  A's dominate by over 46 runs.  

ROTATION
Zito (30.6) v. Colon (25.8) -- A's (4.8)
Harden (23.8) v. Washburn (18.1) -- A's (5.7)
Haren (17.7) v. Escobar (33.9) -- Angels (16.2)  
Blanton (14.1) v. Lackey (16.8) -- Angels (2.7)  
Meyer / Yabu (15.3) v. Byrd (17.7) -- Angels (2.4)

TOTAL:  Angels are better, by about 10-11 runs.  

PEN
Dotel (27.7) v. K-Rod (27.0) -- A's (0.7)
Cruz (14.3) v. Donnelly (15.8) -- Angels (1.5)
Calero (15.9) v. Yan (12.4) -- A's (3.5)
Rincon (6.1) v. Shields (25.0) -- Angels (18.9)
Bradford (12.3) v. Gregg (16.2) -- Angels (3.9)
Street (14.7) v. Dunn (6.4) -- A's (8.3)

TOTAL:  Angels are better, by about 11-12 runs.  

I didn't count the team's respective benches, but my guess is that the benches are about even.  In other words, using the most objective evidence we have available, this is a very, very, very close race (assuming no major injuries) and not a landslide like Ray Ratto would have you believe.  

I was reading through the Bill James Handbook last night and I started reading the Win Shares section and was a little confused by something.  Maybe some of you fellow AN folks can help me out.  

James says that Win Shares is a way of calculating the overall contribution that a player makes to his team -- offensive, defensive, and pitching.  Fine.  Here's the confusing part.  He says that a player's win shares will not be affected by the quality of his team -- that a great player on a bad team will have as many win shares as a great player on a good team.  So, to me, that sounds like everyone is essentially normalized and treated as thought they were on an equally-good team.  

Then, James goes on to say that if you take the number of games a team wins in a season and multiply it by three, you will get the sum of the win shares for all of the players on that team in that season.  So, for example, the A's won 91 games last year -- we multiply that by 3 and we get 273; if we take the sum of the win shares of all of the players on the A's last year, the total will be 273.  

So, what I don't understand is, how can it be that a player's win shares aren't affected by the quality of the team he's on?  If Jason Kendall is on the Pirates and they win 72 games, isn't the number of win shares that can be allocated to Kendall more limited than if he is, say, on the A's.  The A's won 19 more games last year, meaning that there were an extra 57 win shares to be distributed among their players.  How can it be that the quality of a player's team does not affect the number of win shares that are allocated to him?  

I'm not a big fan of dealing Byrnes, but here's why it makes sense.  

It's not about the offense:  Byrnes last year: .283/.337/.467.  Cameron last year: .231/.311/.479.  Cameron had a pretty good second-half last year which probably more accurately reflects his true hitting ability: .248/.322/.567 (SLG a little higher than we should expect, but BA and OBP were about right).  Byrnes gets a few more hits, Cameron gets a few more dongs.  

It's not about the money:  Unless the Mets agree to pick up a significant chunk of Cameron's contract, this trade would cost the A's money.  In theory, the deal could be Byrnes and Hatteberg for Cameron and a prospect or two, but I don't think that's happening (esp if the Mets are trying to get Delgado).  The Mets won't agree to pay Cameron $5M a year to play for the A's (which would make this deal a wash for us, but which would make little sense if the Mets were trying to clear room for Delgado), so we'd probably be looking at taking on some salary in this deal.  

What is this deal about?:  It's about our pitching staff.  During this offseason, we lost Mark Mulder (2:1 groundball-flyball ratio) and Tim Hudson (2.5:1 GB-FB ratio).  Meanwhile, the two guys we kept are Barry Zito (.8:1 GB-FB ratio) and Rich Harden (1.3:1 GB-FB ratio).  We also added Dan Haren (1.2:1 GB-FB ratio).  I don't have the stats on Meyer or Blanton, but neither strikes me as an extreme groundball pitcher.  

In other words, a LOT MORE flyballs will be flying out to our OF next year than last.  I love Byrnes energy, but the guy tracks flyballs like he was sensing the position of the ball with sonar.  My guess, an OF of Byrnes (LF), Kotsay (CF) and Swisher (RF) costs us 0.20-0.25 runs per game next year vs. an OF of Swisher (LF), Cameron (CF) and Kotsay (RF).  

Kotsay used to play RF in Florida, and he's certainly got the arm to play RF (he led the league in OF assists last year).  Between Cameron and Kotsay, many of those potential extra-base hits to the gap would end up being long outs in McAfee Network Associates Coliseum of Alameda County in Oakland (is that the new name of the stadium this year?).  

I know we just dealt Hudson and Mulder to lower our payroll and make us more competitive from 2006-2010.  But, we still want to be competitive this year, right?  

Here are two signings we should make:  (i) Wade Miller; (ii) Josh Phelps.  Both of those guys just got non-tendered by their respective teams.  

Miller
Miller's season ended last year in June because he had a frayed rotator cuff.  He opted not to get surgery, instead deciding to rehab it beginning in December.  This makes him a risk, because the injury could relapse; but, it may be a risk we can afford to take.  

Miller probably is not ready to go at the beginning of Spring Training.  I say we give him the type of contract the Yankees gave Jon Lieber.  To wit: come pitch for us for one year, re-establish yourself as a good pitcher in a pitcher's park, and then go sign your big free agent deal at the beginning of 2006.  

Miller was projected to make about $4M in arbitration this year, so I say we offer him:  1-year, $3-4M; and, we give him the same promise the Marlins gave to Pudge (not to tender him a contract at the end of 2005 so that interested teams won't have to compensate us if they sign him).  

Miller gets:  A pitcher-friendly park to re-establish himself in, and in December 2005, he gets to sign a three-year, $24-30M deal (depending on how well he does with us) with some other team.  

A's get:  A good #3-pitcher to bolster the rotation, another veteran pitcher to allow one of these three youngsters (Haren, Meyer or Blanton) a little extra time in the minors, money comes off the books in 2006.  

Phelps
Made $320K in 2003, $340K in 2004; probably would have made about $800K this year if he had been tendered a contract.  Why not give this kid a 2-year, $2M deal (or something in that range)?  

There is no doubt he can hit a ton.  His problem is, he strikes out too much and he's too inconsistent.  I know, I know... we've got Dan Johnson, we don't need no Josh Phelps.  Well, I'm just throwing it out there.  This guy averages 28 HRs per 550 ABs; he would provide good pop off the bench.  It's just a question of how much he wants and how much Billy can drop on him.    

Roster with these two --
C  Kendall, Melhuse
1B Hatteberg, Phelps
2B Ginter, Ellis
SS Crosby
3B Chavez
LF Byrnes, Kielty
CF Kotsay
RF Swisher, Thomas
DH Durazo

SP Harden, Zito, Miller, Meyer, Blanton
RP Dotel, Cruz, Calero, Bradford, Duke, Rincon

If we are looking for another big bat, why not deal Hudson or Zito to the White Sox for Konerko...  here's what I envision:  

ChiSox give up:  Konerko, Marte, Garland
A's give up:  Hatteberg, Rincon, Hudson

I'm not sure how the dollars work out (or how long each person is signed), but we'd get a big right-handed bat, they'd get a left-handed bat and the "ace" they've been trying to get all winter.  

Someone may have already mentioned this idea, but it just came to me while I was taking my morning coffee break.