SB Nation User Blog: Urban Pawnee

Who'll bring Albert home? Huh?

Urban Pawnee — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 15:31:32 -0000

A quick riff on some numbers here ...

With Albert's 5-for-5 OB performance thursday night, we've seen his OBP reach the giddy/gaudy heights of .525 – in a word; Bonds-ian! The walks, intentional and otherwise, are piling up, along with the hits requisite of a .377 BA. But then I noticed that he didn't score one run in that game. Huh? Looking a little more closely at the young season, he's scored 14 runs, which places him in a massive tie for 23rd place in the NL. 14 runs to show for 55 times on base (30 hits/23bb/2hbp). That computes to him scoring 25.5% of the times he gets on base. Didn't sound too impressive to me. So, I checked into this arcane stat for his career (runs divided by total times on base).

'01 - 41.2%

'02 - 44.3%

'03 - 45.5%

'04 - 46.3%

'05 - 42.9%

'06 - 43.6%

'07 - 34.0%

'08 - 25.5% (24 games)

What I'm doing here is using Albert as one, isolated indicator of team offensive efficiency. He's always gotten on base, and will continue, with a career OBP of about .420. He's always driven runs in, we know that. How efficiently does the rest of the team respond to him being on base? Specifically those #4-5 hitters. During the Golden Years ('01-'06), with a more-or-less healthy tandem of Rolen/Edmonds hitting behind him (yeah, there were others too, but I won't mention all of the musical chairs participants in the interest of brevity), Pujols scored between 41-46% time he got on base. That's a lot of runs. Last year that all went to hell due to the age/injuries/poor performance of anyone who hit behind Albert - to the tune of 34% run efficiency. This season it's gotten even worse (no names, please), with a noticable tendency of opponents pitching around him early and often. He's admitted to frustration and enlarged his strike zone on occasion. After a 7-1 start, the team has slipped (stumbled) into a more mediocre pattern caused, in part, by their inability to plate runners. Albert's 26.4% scoring percentage is testament. Whether it's Glaus, Ankiel, Ludwick, Duncan, (or a player to be named later), the team really needs some thunder behind AP.

The Sad Spiezio Scenario & Tony

Urban Pawnee — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 16:16:08 -0000

This from Edmonds, reflecting on Spiezio in '07:

"We saw it last year. It was bad. And it turned real ugly. I'm not going to go into the details, but you saw the signs in person. ... Once he started, he just couldn't slow down. He was staying up all night, all day, all night, all day, and then (he'd) come in and couldn't play. He was missing a bunch of games for stupid reasons.

"You try to straighten him out. But if they don't want to be straightened out, you've got to let it ride itself out, knowing something good or bad was going to happen."

Living in Chicago, admittedly in the heart of an anti-Card bias, I catch a significant and persistent sports media buzz regarding Tony running a permissively "toxic" clubhouse ... citing his defense of McGwire (and Bonds!), the Canseco-led Oakland A's swelling biceps, Ankiel, the most names on the Mitchell Report, the Josh Hancock saga, his own DUI, etc.

And now we're digesting the gruesome details, as they leak out, of the personal disintegration of Scott S., which far from being an isolated incident, was a long, steady slide into darkness, witnessed by many. Was Tony one of them? Or is it a case of the manager just keeping his blinders on, and respecting the personal freedoms of "grown men", even though, in Spiezio's case, his inability to play the damn game on any given day affects the whole team - and the whole season. Yeah, I know, they got him into rehab in August. Too little too late?

I don't pretend to know what the answer is here. But I do sense that part of Tony's legacy will be this perception, fair or not, that all this happened on his watch. For someone who wears the mantle of micro-manager/control freak, it seems ironic.

Baserunning gaffs we have known!

Urban Pawnee — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 19:56:57 -0000

Watching that absolutely disastrous Lofton/Skinner decision-making collaboration last night brought back indelible memories of another October base running boner so HUGE, at absolutely the worst time ... the Lonnie Smith vapor lock sequence against the Twins, Game 7 in the '91 Series. Lonnie was going with the pitch off first, and Pendleton rocked one off the wall in left-center. The Twins SS did a deke on Lonnie as he rumbled into 2nd, he got confused, loitered a bit, then finally saw the ball caroming far afield, and made it only to 3rd. Ohmygod!! Lonnie, of course, did not end up scoring the go ahead run in that inning, and the Braves lost the game 1-0, and the Series. (Ron Gant and Sid Bream, like the ill-fated Casey Blake, were unable to bring the runner in from 3rd with less than 2 out).
For the TV audience and the crowd, it seemed like the baserunners (& Skinner) were the only persons in the world who didn't grasp the situation and incredible opportunity it represented, which added to its torturous dimensions and sense of loss, especially if you were rooting for the Tribe (or the Braves in '91). For me, ex-Cards Smith and Pendleton gave the October partisanship a little extra juice ... and then pain.

Lee Elia - back when - for laughs

Urban Pawnee — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 18:40:54 -0000

Setting the scene:
This is a word-for-word transcription of Cub Mgr. Lee Elia's press "conference" (more of a soliloquy, actually) held late in April '83 as the newly retooled Cubs stumbled out of the gate to a 5-14 record. Attendance back then was probably in the 10,000 - 15,000 range on any given day (no night baseball at Wrigley then). The Bleacher Bums were just that - bums! Thanks to their losing way, the Cubs were getting BOOED! Lee blew his stack. Beat writer tape recorders were set to "ON", and what followed was audio history.
Transcribed by Urban Pawnee 9/17/07

"I'll tell you one fucking thing. I hope we get fucking hotter than shit - just to stuff it up those 3,000 fucking people that show up every fucking day ... ... because if they're the real Chicago fucking fans, they can kiss my fucking ass right downtown - and PRINT IT!

They're really, really behind you around here ... ... my FUCKING ASS! What the - what the fuck am I supposed to do? Go out there and let my players get destroyed every day, and be quiet about it for the nickle-dime people that show up? The motherfuckers don't even work! That's why they're out at the fucking game. They oughta go out and get a fucking job and find out what's it like to go out and earn a fucking living. 85% of the fucking world's working! The other 15 come out here. It's a fucking playground for the cocksuckers.

Rip them motherfuckers! Rip them country cocksuckers like the fucking players! We got guys busting their fucking ass, and them fucking people boo. And that's the Cubs?

My fucking ass!

They talk about the great fucking support that the players get around here. I haven't seen it this fucking year.

I'm not here to talk about specific fucking plays. The name of the game is hit the ball, catch the ball, and get the fucking job done. Right now we have more losses than we have wins. The fucking changes that have happened in the Cub organization are MULTIFOLD! All right, they don't show because we're five and fourteen ... ... and unfortunately that's the criteria of them dumb fifteen motherfucking percent that come out to day baseball. The other 85% are earning a living ... ... it'll take more than a 5-13 or a 5-14 to destroy the make up of this club.

I guarantee you that. There's some fucking pros out there that wanna fucking play the game ... ... but you're stuck in the fucking stigma of the fucking Dodgers, and the Phillies, and the Cardinals, and all that cheap shit.

All these motherfucking editorials about Cey ... and the fucking, eh ... the PHILLIE-ITIS and all that shit ... it's sickening.

It's unbelievable. It really is. It's a dis-heartening fucking situation we're in right now. 5 and 14 doesn't negate all that work.

Ya got 143 fucking games left. What I'm trying to say is, "Don't rip those them fucking guys out there - rip me. You want to rip somebody, rip my fucking ass. But don't rip them fucking guys cuz they're giving everything they can give. But once we hit that fucking groove, it'll flow. And it will flow ... the talent's there. I don't know how to make it any clearer to you. I'm frustrated. I'll guarantee you I'm frustrated. It'd be different if I came here every day at 8:30 and saw a bunch of guys that didn't give a shit. They give a shit. And it's a tough National League East.

It's a tough National League - period."

MVP by Committee

Urban Pawnee — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 16:36:37 -0000

That was a rarity - seeing Franklin AND Izzy give up late-inning runs in a tight game yesterday. While still holding on to the lead (whew), it made me realize that THIS year it's taken for granted that those guys are a lock. How much of a lock? Here's the combined line on that four-headed monster; RussTroyRyanIzzy (we need a better name, no?)

W-L 18-3 28 Saves

IP 204.1 H 141 BB 64 K 165 ERA 2.11 WHIP 9.03

the next Mickey Mantle ?

Urban Pawnee — Tue, 21 Aug 2007 20:48:51 -0000

I'm a Card fan who has wandered far afield here to submit my query to the resident experts of this fine forum. For many years I watched Mr. Drew patrol right (and center) for the Cards, waiting for the emergence of those giant numbers and five tools that were constantly being ascribed to him - rejoicing in the bursts of excellence that gave us so much hope, then watching those hopes dashed in a miserable flurry of strike outs, hesitant play, achey gimpiness, and out-and-out DL disappearances.

Then he was gone. (sob)

Curious as I am with all ex-Cards (Geronimo Pena, where are you?), I've read the Bosox box scores for almost four months now, and am needing a little summation of what this season has held for J. D., why he's cresting at .260 now with very little production, despite playing in a hitter's park, with a great team that seemed to be a good fit. Beyond the numbers, what's the story with this guy?

Can someone with BoSox intelligence tell me ...

Urban Pawnee — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 03:17:23 -0000

why J D Drew is having such a suckfest of a season for arguably the best team in the league? He's never been THIS bad, has he? I remember Renteria getting booed for hitting .280 at the top of the order at Fenway. What's the reaction been for a middle-of-the-order, high-paid slugger who can't hit for average OR power.

Yeah, I know, injuries injuries. But there's gotta be more to the story.

Chicago Pundit's reaction to Pujols

Urban Pawnee — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 18:44:26 -0000

Just listened to WMVP-AM radio host, Tom Waddle (ex-NFL receiver) describe what a shocking revelation it was to see Pujols last nite (he hadn't seen him since the WS) and how noticably SMALLER he looked; something a person might be inclined to notice if there is an eight month period between sightings. (compared to the typical VEB/Card fan who sees the players often)

Anything to this? Or is this just symptomatic of the times we live in (i.e. everyone's under a cloud of suspicion during this, The Steroid Era) ?

Cards' Mid Term Grades

Urban Pawnee — Sun, 15 Jul 2007 15:09:53 -0000

I couldn't find one of these in the P-D, so I wrote one of my own because this season is forcing us to amuse ourselves (and one another).

'07 MidTerm Grades

PLAYERS
Chris Duncan A- Only guy in the lineup having a legitimately good (not great) offensive season. His defense is not a job; it's an adventure.
David Eckstein B+ Surge in hitting offset by injury. 12 rbi, even for a lead off guy, is pretty damn weak.
Yadier Molina B The .647 OPS is a little better than his career. 15 rbi is slim pickings. His D saves the day.
Scott Spiezio B Decent job filling in here and there. Not the miracle-worker he was in '06, tho.
Skip Schumaker B Gets a B because not much was expected. Looks like he's started to figure out pitchers a little.
Ryan Ludwick B+ See: Skip S. Add: a little pop for the "+".
Albert Pujols B- Huge drop in power/production put his .300 avg in perspective. You heard it here: Will lose the Gold Glove in '07.
So Taguchi B- Minus defender this year (?) offsets his punchless .293 average. Way too many AB.
Aaron Miles C+ Starting to look way over-exposed with all this playing time. .651 OPS is weak. Defense is in a tailspin.
Juan Encarnacion C Not going to pile on this guy. He's doing what he always does, just a little less than usual, tho.
Gary Bennett C- Fitting the Cardinal mold of barely adequate back up backstops who can't hit a lick. (see: Stinnett)
Scott Rolen D+ Singles-hitting defensive specialist just doesn't cut it. .715 OPS? Ouch!
Jim Edmonds D Almost earns an INCOMPLETE, but that would be too kind for this gimpy, ineffectual performance.
Adam Kennedy D- Huge, huge disappointment in all areas. Wishes he was still in Cali.

PITCHERS
Ryan Franklin A Every season there's one reliever who has a surprisingly nasty year. (remember Al Reyes?)
Jason Isrnghausn A He's back ... and better than ever. Or at least as good. Hooray for the new hip.
Russ Springer A- Where would this team be without Russ and his effective relief appearances? (no answer necessary)
Braden Looper B- Courageous conversion from the pen - but has hit the wall hard.
Adam Wainright C- Not much middle ground with his performances. Some were great. Too many were awful. Will be back in pen in '08!
Brad Thompson C+ Courageous conversion from the pen, but I'm waiting for him to hit the wall.
Todd Wellemeyer C+ I just can't give a great grade to a player Tony+Dave send down, because they must know something I don't. Sorry.
Randy Flores D A real dud this year. Comes complete with a can of gasoline and matches.
Anthony Reyes D- Micro-analyzed to the max this year. A thousand reasons and excuses offered. Add it all up? He stunk. See ya in September?
Kip Wells F+ Gets a "+" for his brief bit of effectiveness out of the pen. Otherwise, his '07 stint with the Cards will forever live in infamy.
Mike Maroth Inc I'm going to be charitable and hold my tongue on this one. Seems like a nice guy. How about that?
Troy Percival Inc Six innings does not earn a grade.
Troy Cate Inc All players named Troy heretofore receive INCOMPLETES
Randy Keisler No comment
Kelvin Jiminez See: Randy Keisler
Tyler Johnson See: Kelvin Jiminez

2nd Half Offensive Semi-Swoon

Urban Pawnee — Sun, 10 Sep 2006 02:58:51 -0000

A spoiled Cards fan bummer of a summer

Growing up, reading the great Bill James, I was always struck by how he analyzed players' performances, dividing a season into two separate and distinct parts, using this as a tool in understanding the grind of the campaign.

The Cards, led by Albert's monstrous April/May, had a first half that had most fans thinking big. Remember all those ridiculous projections? Ha! But that's all changed. Other than Chris Duncan, every position player has wilted, relatively speaking, in this lackluster 2nd half of what is turning out to be a lackluster season. Here are the sorry numbers of a team struggling to play .500 ball in the 2nd half (granted, there are about 21 games left):

Encarnacion - only 3 homers in all of Aug/Sept
Rolen - .267 and 5 HR/24 rbi in 2nd half
Pujols - HR/RBI: 29/76 1st half; 15/40 2nd half
Eckstein - OBP: .372 1st half; . 287 2nd half
Miles - only 7 rbi in 2nd half
Molina - 33 rbi 1st half; 13 rbi 2nd half
Edmonds - 47 rbi 1st half; 18 rbi 2nd half
Taguchi - .295/27 rbi 1st half; .198/3 rbi 2nd half
Spezio - .302 1st half; .236 2nd half
Belliard - hitting .228 for Cards, which is a 2nd half stat
Preston Wilson - .hitting .235 for Cards, " " " " " "