John Shannon formerly of MLSE TV Production side, nonchalantly dropped this bomb on the FAN590's Bob McCowan's Primetime Friday round table. John said in the summer of 2001 that at a senior MLSE management meeting Glen Grunwald admitted that he passed on a deal that would have sent future MVP Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzky in exchange for Vince Carter and Antonio Davis.

WTF?!?! To be fair, this was at the peak of Vincemania and only weeks after the clunk vs the 76ers in game 7. Steve Nash was getting booed. But AD would have just been a piece.

What would Raptors nation have looked liked if that deal had gone through? How many more wins would we have racked up over the last decade? Or would MLSE have figured out a way to have screwed it up?

I probably would have remained a season ticket holder, and considering how weak the east was during that period I'm fairly positive there would have been a couple of good runs. Excuse me while I go hurl now.

So, does the Ping Pong Program make an instant fix? No, but can you win a championship without a high draft pick? Yes, but you need to luck out with a sleeper/highschooler turned superstar ala Dirk who got drafted at 9th and Kobe at 13th but never won a championship without a high pick by his side (Gasol @ 3 and Shaq at 1).

Aside from them and the 03/04 Pistons who always manage to ruin every theory I've ever had, even though they didn't have a "superstar", they did have a non home grown high pick in Billups (3rd), and a mid of Rip at 7th in his year, no others have won a championship without having a very high draft pick as their focal point (5th or better)

The recent Celts had Garnett and Allen who were both 5s, and Pierce was an asterisk 10th as that was the deepest draft in the NBA history.

Spurs had Duncan, and probably the most number of low round picks integral to their team for a championship team. And in their first run they had the Admiral who was also a #1 pick.

Heat had Wade (5th) and Shaq (1st)

Bulls had Jordan (3rd) and Pippen (5th)

Rockets had Hakeem (1st overall), Kenny Smith (6th)

The 80s Piston had Isiah (2nd)

Showtime Lakers had Kareem (1st) and Magic (1st)

80s Celtics had Bird (6th), McHale (3rd), Parish (8th).

And well that's 30 years of basketball.

Is the Ping Pong program a guarantee? Definitely not, but without getting a couple of high picks, you can forget a shot at a Championship. And most of the high picks were also home grown.

Moving towards success also means it doesn't happen over night. Let's take a look at recent picks:

09 Clippers 19-63 post Blake Griffin 32-50 (when he returned)

07 Bulls 33-49 post Rose 41-41 then 41-41

06 Sonics 31-51 post Durant 20-62, then post Westerbrook 23-59, then Harden 50-32

04 Bucks 30-52 post Bogut 41-41, 42-40, 28-54

03 Magic 21-61 post Howard 36-46 then 36-46, 52-30

02 Cavs 17-65 post Lebron 35-47 then 42-40

None of these teams are Championship teams, and the Magics and Cavs have/had already peaked in their cycle, but a future championship going to the Clips, Bulls or Thunder not only wouldn't surprise me, it's almost expected.

So would I love for the Raps to win this year? Sure, but without some key game changing High Picked players on the roster, I'd rather see more Ping Pongs than not. A team with AB, JV, this years pick and maybe another high pick the year after? Well.. now maybe we'd be in the mix. Unfortunately there are no guarantees and hopefully we won't have peaked by then.

2008-09 Record: 33-49 (3rd Atlantic; 13th in the East)

Draft Pick: 9th

Key Free Agents:

Shawn Marion (unrestricted)

Anthony Parker (unrestricted)

How They Got Here:

It was thought that the Raptors had a chance to fight for a playoff spot heading into that season. They had a perennial All-Star in Chris Bosh, and the midseason trade of Jermaine O’Neal was supposed to free things up even more on the offensive end for head coach Jay Triano. It didn’t work. Toronto was in the middle of the NBA in field goal percentage but they lacked to offensive firepower needed to compete on a nightly basis. And with Shawn Marion and Anthony Parker both being unrestricted free agents Bryan Colangelo had his work cut out. The Raptors planed to negotiate a long-term deal with Bosh in the offseason, and if they found that he’s set on testing the market in 2010 they could’ve attempted to trade him (which.. well we got a first rounder -- ours back thankfully, and a barely used trade exemption).

What They Needed:

The feeling of many draft experts was that the 2009 class was especially weak (maybe the weakest since 2001) so it wasn’t going to be one of those "get rich quick" selections. In regards to the position of their draft pick, Toronto needed to look for a versatile perimeter player who could hold his own on both ends of the floor. If they lost both Marion and Parker, that was quite a bit to make up on the defensive end of the floor. If they did deal Bosh they’d better be sure to get a polished big man in return; outside of Blake Griffin you weren't going to find a guy like that in the lottery.

Who They Would Have Liked/On the Radar:

Tyreke Evans (Memphis) and Gerald Henderson (Duke; should he remain in the draft) were a pair of intriguing options on the perimeter. Henderson is the better defender but Evans is the more versatile of the two offensively. Toronto could also see James Harden (Arizona State) slip to them should too many teams higher in the order ignore his body of work and focus on his play in the NCAA Tournament instead.

Notables drafted behind Demar:

Brandon Jennings

Gerald Henderson

Tyler Hansborough

Ty Lawson

James Johnson

Jrue Holliday

Jeff Teague

DeJuan Blair

Omri Cassipi

Jonas Jerebko

Although 2009 was projected to be a "weak" draft year, it managed to produce a variety of very serviceable players, especially point guards. Obviously a Brandon Jennings would look extremely nice as a #2 guard in T-dot, the big need coming off 08/09 was something on the perimeter. The only other options at that time would have been Hendo (Gerald Henderson) and T-Will (Terrance Williams) and I’d say neither have really excelled and is still behind DeMar in overall long term potential.

I think overall, especially in a poor draft year to draft the best talent out there vs drafting for need (which I think should be the case most of the time anyways), but a serviceable guard would have helped this years depth. Didn’t know much about DD going into that year’s draft and had my eggs in Hendo and Lawson’s basket at the 9 range. At least we didn’t land Hasheem!

The Toronto Raptors finished 13th in the 2009-10 season, and picked 13th in the 2010 draft. However a highly touted Tar Heel star's value plummeted when he could have been a top 5 pick in the '09 draft if he didn't return for another season in North Carolina after his freshman year, and fell on Colangelo's lap. It was pretty widely accepted as one of the sleep picks of that draft year, but was it?

At the time the Raptors had worked out and targeted really only 5 other players, Cole Aldrich, Intercontinental Champion Pat Patterson, HBO's favourite show Larry Sanders, Kentucky PG Eric Bledsoe and the other guard from Texas Avery Bradley.

Pat Patterson was a HQ fav, but the general consensus wanted another guard with Bledsoe or Bradley. Aldrich everyone knew was going to be a long term project that no one seemed overly interested in, and Larry was and is headcase Larry.

So lets take a look at the numbers:

Year Team GP GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG

Ed Davis

2010–11 Toronto 65 17 24.6 . 576 .000 . 555 7.1 .6 .6 1.0 7.7

Cole Aldrich

2010-11 Tulsa 66ers 21 21 29.3 .544 .000 . 804 8.6 1.3 .5 2.6 10.3

2010–11 Oklahoma City 18 0 7.9 .533 .000 . 500 1.9 .2 .3 . 4 1.0

Pattrick Patterson

2010–11 Houston 52 6 16.7 .558 .000 .714 3.8 0.8 .3 .7 6.3

LarrySanders

2010–11 Milwaukee 60 12 14.5 .433 .000 .560 3.0 .3 .4 1.2 4.3

Eric Bledsoe

2010–11 L.A. Clippers 81 25 22.7 .424 .276 .744 2.8 3.6 1.1 .3 6.7

Avery Bradley

2010–11 Boston 31 0 5.2 .343 .000 .500 .5 .4 .3 .0 1.7

Aldrich obviously is the biggest disappointment of the group, but most generally thought of as one of the higher risks with minimal upside. And aside from Bledsoe, the others have all just been minor bench role players for their team. 2010 marked another thin draft year and it would have been interesting to have Bledsoe (our consensus pick at the time) come in off the bench behind Calderon, I haven’t seen enough of Bledsoe in the NBA to really assure me that Davis wasn’t the right pick.

Davis may never become a major component of any competitive team, however of the 2nd teir of mid picks he may still outshine the other 5 on this list.

I know it's early, but the season's a quarter over already and it's time to take an early look at who the favourites are for the Rookie of the Year.

You know me.. I love it when I'm right.. and when I'm right 51% of the time I'm wrong 49%.  Back in June I made a call for Blake Griffin to be the ROTY (June Blog: http://www.raptorshq.com/2010/6/26/1538658/roty) and to be battling it out with John Wall, at the time, those who voted loved Cousins.  I figured Cousins would have had a couple of suspensions by the mid way point of the season, and I'm fairly close on that.

More importantly, how did the Raptors do with picking Ed Davis?

At the time there was a lot of love for Cole Aldrich, whom on paper seemed solid, but I didn't like his game at all.  I think it's safe to say with Aldrich playing a total of 40 mins this season, and sent to the D it's inconclusive and won't be in the ROTY running.

Fans of the Raps were also high on a couple of PGs in Eric Bledsoe an Avery (I almost said Johnson) Bradley.  Bledsoes has been up and down, but probably more downs than ups.  With Griffin and Blake on the team, expectations for him are pretty minimal and isn't asked to do very much.  Bradley has pretty much been nailed to the bench in Boston, and would have expected to take over Nate Robinson in the depth chart by now or at least split some more time, but that hasn't been the case.

Raps HQ really wanted Patrick Patterson.  He too has been assigned to the Houston's D league, and is very safe to say not in the running for the ROTY.  He is however faring decently down with the Rio Grande Vipers with his 3 double doubles this season, but not anywhere near his expectations I don't think.

My call was for the Raps to take a huge gamble on a problem child of Larry Sanders.  The Raps have never really taken a chance on a bad boy and stuck to clean cut upstanding good kids.  Sanders struggled early, but is starting to get minutes on the Bucks team and recorded a season high of 8 blocks with a double double vs Denver.  That just goes to show you what a potential beast could be, but consistency and stuff between the ears will remain his biggest issue.

Ed Davis has been hurt most of the season, but I think we can safely say he looks to be an NBA regular.  Not sure what the upside will be, but he will definitely contribute.  It's still amazes me how far he dropped.  I definitely had him ahead of the likes of Aldrich, Ekpe Udoh and Greg Monroe to say the least.  It may be have been pure luck that he fell this far, but for once instead of getting screwed on a pick, they're going to get some value from a 13th overall pick.

Who's your favourite rookie this year (notice I didn't say ROTY)?  You can comment below on your ROTY, though I think it's a safe bet right now.

Blah blah blah.. Bargs sucks.  Is he deficient?  Sure.  But the reality is, a lot of Cs have been picked over the last 5 years, and very few of them end up starting on their team.  What value if any does AB bring?  Well to begin that discussion, I think we have to look at the overall picture compared to what's been drafted over the last few years. There are some very solid Centers on this list, but I don't think anyone person sticks out at me and screams dominating.   Ultimately, a dominating big comes along once every 10-15 years.  That's why there was so much hope for Greg Oden who I don't even have on here.

Starting Centers Drafted Since 2005

Andrea Bargnani, 7-0, 2006, 1st pick

Al Horford, 6-10, 2007,3rd pick

David Lee, 6-9, 2005, 30th pick

Marc Gasol, 7-1, 2007, 2nd round

Kevin Love, 6-10, 2008, 5th pick

Joakim Noah, 6-11, 2007, 9th pick

LaMarcus Aldridge, 6-11, 2006, 2nd pick

Andray Blatche, 6-11, 2005, 19th pick

Andrew Bogut, 2005, 7-0, 1st pick

Anthony Randolph, 6-11, 2008, 14th pick

I love stats.  We use stats to try and gain an upper hand when it comes to wagering.  Most of us are poker guys, so stats is huge.  We've got some secret formulas that seem to work, but are constantly try to find relational data.  But personally I've come to the conclusion the general stats for basketball have no direct correlation to winning and losing.

Let's take the 2009-10 season.

The top 5 FG% were: Suns 49.2, Jazz 49.1, Cavs 48.5, Raps 48.2, Spurs 47.3.  The Lakers were way below average at 45.7, although the Nets were dead last @42.9  FG% can't tell you who's going to be a winner, but it can tell you who the losers are.

FG Attempted tell you even less.  Yes bad teams tend to take more shots because they're missing quite a bit, but some good teams get more as well because of their D.  Boston Celtics finished dead last with 76.8 pg, while the Warriors had 86.5  The Lakers were above average @83.8 and Dallas was a median @82.4

We all worry about Rebounds quite a bit.  Winning the Rebound war should truly tell us who a great defensive team is right?  It was lead by the Bulls with 44.6 pg and the Lakers 2nd @ 44.3.  Sounds good right?  2nd last was the Celtics @ 38.6.  Raps were bad @40.4 and so were the Nuggets (41.4), Hawks and Mavs @ 41.7.  And really we're talking minute stats at a +/- of 3 from the median.  Does 3 or 4 rebounds make that much of a difference in any one game?

Turnovers, an interesting category, however is a minutely separated by +/- of 4 from best to worse (Blazers 11.5, Timberwolves 15.6)  with the bad teams generally having high TOs, but even then the Raps and Pistons were one of the statistically better teams at keeping the ball.

Well scoring should be the tell all right?  Even then that category is misleading.  Suns and Warriors led the league (110 & 108) with the Blazers (98.1) and Celtics (99.2) being in the lower half .   The Lakers were pretty average at 101.1

So I cringe whenever one relates to any one statistical category and equating it to a winning team, because for every one you pull out, I can find a statistic opposite. Winning the Rebound war, or FG%, or even scoring doesn't guarantee you a winning team.  I think this also illustrates how important non-measurable defensive categories really are.

Last year we made a prediction for the raptors to hit 43-39 and just squeek into the playoffs, and if it wasn't for the Bosh injury/tank we would have hit it square on.  In fact we were perfect the first 3 months of predictions, which was made more impressive because we made the call in mid August.

This year has been completely different.  Yes we have $1K riding on the season for the raps to finish above 28 wins, but no agreement within our brain trust what those final numbers might be.  I'm of the belief that BC will still be making some moves before the trade deadline  or if the team tanks early as he's in his lame duck contract season and has that TPE.  It'll be useless to him if he's in the unemployment line.  But no matter how we size it up, it's not looking pretty.

Oct: 1-1.  They get the Knicks and the Cavs at home.  Staying in the comfy confines of home, hopefully they take one of two.

Nov: 5-10. A tough road trip off the get go to the west.  Utah, Lakers, Portland.  It makes the first game vs the Kings a MUST win.  Then another road trip to Orlando and their first visit to Miami.

December: 6-9.  Merry Christmas?  Chicago, Lakers, Dallas is really the toughest stretch here.  This is make or break.  This schedule is very simlar to last years, where it was a tough November, then an easy December.  Some seem very optomistic for a chance at a winning month, but I think 6-9 is much more realistic.  I'd say 8-7 would be a great month.

January: 6-11.  Happy New Years Raptor fans.  With 10 of the 17 being on the road, the Raptors HQ forums will be lit up to call for people's heads to roll.  Triano's job will be on the line here.  6 wins will probably keep him around.  2 or 3 and he's done.  That'll probably include BC here.  If they hit double digit wins, BC signs for another 5 years.

February:  4-7.  Humdrum homecoming month with Miami & Phoenix in town.  It'll make for welcome news after January.

March: 6-8.  Raptors go to London for 2 games vs the Nets.  Sonny wonders why the beer is warm.

April: 5-3.  They have to have a winning month sometime this season huh?  I'm guessing a few moves would have been made by now, and the team is a little more in sync.  

Make the final prediction: 33 wins and 49 losses.

How lucky will we get in the lotto???

The over under according Vegas for the Raptors win total right now is 27.  And after a bit of discussion with my team, we're all in agreement that we pooled in some money to collectively wager on the over for the Raptors.  There was a lot that went into this analysis, the fact that the east looks like it's a bit more settled now all for except the Raps and maybe Washington. 

But time and time again, the single thing that kept bringing us back is the fact, and am surprised is not getting much play on the HQ, is that it's BC's contract season.  We just can't imagine him rebuilding this team (as much as I want to be in the Harrison Barnes Sweepstakes) in a lame duck year.   In combo with the TPE, he's got to make some kind of splash.  Not only that, he always has.

The only thing I'm worried about is, going into the season without using that TPE and the Raps slide in the first 6 weeks and BC gets fired, we can kiss our collective $5K goodbye, as the I'm sure by then, the Raps would be on an all out rebuild.  But.. we're betting against.

Speaking of which, what should we do with BC before the season starts?

Things around here become so predictable, I`m curious if anyone else feels the same? I`d wager that no matter what the next transaction will be, there will be some reference to how BC screwed up in the last 4 years, there`s no faith in him and call for his dismissal.

In reality I`m saddened.  If I wanted to read Feschuk or Jeff Blair, well.. I`d go read them.  But what lead me to even read these blogs to begin with, that it provided some level of analysis vs what those mainstream chumps did.  They make a living trying to be controversial and be a hater.  It got lame... and sadly so is this.

What do you think?

I'm a big supporter of learning to becoming a better fan of basketball rather than just a fan of your local team.  For one thing it's highly unlikely your local team is going to win a championship anytime soon.  Sure they may be competitive and win more than they lose, but history teaches us that half the championships have been won between two teams, the Lakers and the Celtics.  And aside from them, teams who win go on a bit of a run.  It's a sport where a couple of individuals can dictate who the power houses are.

But the sport of basketball is one of the more fun sports to watch, if you know what to look for.  There are games within a game, decent strategy, and sometimes even high paced action.

So how do you become a better fan?  I've always advocated, become a coach!  Get to know the technique, and learn to scout.  As much as I love coaching, I understand not everyone wants to dedicate that kind of time, although I'll say it's amazingly rewarding to work with youth who are aspiring to become the next Jamal Magloire.  Forget being a fan, now you can be the LEGO master or Jay Triano.

Where do you start?  Well ultimately you can get certified through basketball ontario and join a club, but before you even go there you can start with some of these resources.

1) High Performance Basketball has some great videos of various techniques to teach and look for in players: http://highperformancebasketball.ca/index.php?option=com_seyret&Itemid=196

2) Can't tell the difference between a 2-3 or 3-2?  Coache's Clipboard has some drills, and good articles about strategy and the rules: http://coachesclipboard.ca/

3) Mike Makay's blog.  Part of Basketball Canada, he's got interesting insights into Team Canada: http://www.basketball.ca/en/hm/blog/?sid=210

4) FIVB has a huge "coaching library" with lots of drills and exercises.  But what I do love is the scouting videos that'll teach you exactly what to look for: http://coachinglibrary.fiba.com/

And when you're ready, go to basketball ontario and attend a coaching clinic. http://www.basketball.on.ca/site/index.cfm?DSP=Section&ID=35

Even if you're not ready to take it to the courts yourself, you'll find that watching b-ball will be completely different.

Okay.. so it's been 15 years now and Toronto's had 4 non interim GMS (so excluding Jack McCloskey and Wayne Embrey).  Who has been the best GM of the 4 so far? 


Isiah Thomas

Highlights: Drafting Mighty Mouse Damon Stoudamire instead of Ed O'Banon, Marcus Camby and Tracy MacGrady

Glen Grunwald: Traded Marcus Camby for Charles Oakley, Selected Morris Peterson, Traded for Vince Carter (Jamison & Cash), Hired Lenny Wilkons, Selected Chris Bosh

Rob Babcock: Selected Rafael Arajuo, Charlie Villaneuva, Joey Graham and Rocko Uckic, Traded Carter for a bunch of Williamses, Named Sam Mitchell as head coach, Signed Jose Calderon

Bryan Colangelo: Traded Araujo for Kris Humphries and Robert Whealy, Selected Andrea Bargnani, Signed Anthony Parker, Jorge Garbojosa and Jamario Moon

Ok, let's get started.. who's ROYT for 2010/11?

Should be interesting as Blake Griffin is still a rookie, this should be a decent battle between Wall and Griffin, but I don't think it'll be close.  I'm still going with Blake.

The ultimate dark horse is whether Cousins can mature?  Or will it take a decade for him to be like Artest?  Who knows, maybe it'll be Pat Patterson (though he wasn't much of an intercontinental champion)

Ahh gotta love Draft season, where anything and everything is possible.  But each year I love looking back and seeing who the winner and losers were from the draft game.  And I've always emphasized picking a winner from the 2nd round to really show who's scouting staff is on top of the ball. SO I've got my opinion of the winning pick, the bust of the year and the steal of the year.

1999: Win: Elton Brand @1.  Bust: Jonathon Bender @ 5 (or Alec Radojevic @12).   Steal: Manu Ginobili @57 (and steal of the last 10 years!!)

2000: What an awful year.  Winner: Mike Miller?!?! @ 5th pick or Jamal Crawford @ 8th.  Bust: Stromile Swift @ 2 by the Griz.  Steal: Has got to be Michael Redd, Mil @ 43 and really is probably the winner of the draft too.

2001: Win: Pau Gasol @ 3 or Joe Johnson @10.  Bust: Kwame Brown @ #1.  Steal: Gilbert Arenas @ 30

2002: Win: Amare Stoudemire @ 9 or Yao Ming @1.  Bust: Jay Williams @2 or Mikoloz Tskitishivili@ 5. Steal: Carlos Boozer @34

2003: The stacked super year. Win: Lebron James@ 1 or Dwyane Wade @5?  Bust: Poor Darko Milicic @2.  Where would the Raps be if we had drafted him?!?!  Steal: Mo Williams @ 47

2004: Win: Dwight Howard @1. Bust: Poor Rafael Arrujo @ 8. Steal: Trevor Ariza @ 43.

2005: Win: Chris Paul @4.  Bust: Fran Vasques @11.  Steal: Monta Ellis @ 40

2006: Win: Brandon Roy @6.  Bust: Adam Morrison @3.  Steal: Paul Millsap @ 47

2007: Win: Kevin Durant @2.  Bust: So far its got to be Greg Oden @1 or maybe Yi Jianli @6.  Steal: Marc Gasol @ 48

2008: Win: Derek Rose @1.  Bust: Joe Alexander @8.  Steal: Luc Mbah a Moute @37

2009: Win: Tyreke Evans @4 Bust: Well not really fair but Blake Griffin @ 1 or Ricky Rubio @5.  Steal: Marcus Thornton @ 43

And what have we learned from this?  I want to have a pick @ 43 or 47

I used to play this game a lot of the Leafs during the 80s, but now I guess we get the unfortunate oppotunity to play this game with the Raps.

What's probably disapointed me the most during the BC era, is the lack of drafts that we've had.  Rap fans have been paying a heavy price for the previous era's lack of draft picking skills. Let's see.. during the Babcock era of 2004&05 these were our picks.

2004: Rafael Araujo, Albert Miralles

and even worse in 2005 with 4 picks: Charlie Villaneuva, Joey Graham, Roko Ukic, Uros Slokar.

I remember being at the season ticket holder fan party during the 04 draft.  We collectively booed the heck out of Chuck Swisrky when he tried to give some reasonable explanation for Babcocks decision, and we all felt badly for the news bearer, as he seemed equally shocked.

In some defence to Babcock, these were fairly poor draft years, but none the less 5 years later, it's a big swing and a miss.  Even if the Raps hit it big, they're probably just slightly above average type of team.

Obviously in 04 we missed out on Andre Iguodala but there was also Biedrins, Jameer Nelson, Varejao and Al Jefferson after.  The late 2nd round steal would have been Trevor Ariza.

In 05 was where we needed to make an impact with the four picks:  The biggest miss was taking Joey over the much anticipated selection of Danny Granger.  I remember getting ready to mouth the words Danny as the commish said Joey.  By that time, I knew I was giving up my season tickets.  The other misses we could have had was Bynum, David Lee in the first round. 

As a team whose never converted a 2nd round pick into a player in it's history, this would have been a tough year to find anyone as Ryan Gomes, Andray Blatche and Amir Johnson were the only serviceable picks that year after Roko.

None the less, what could this team have been like if they hit it big and say picked Iguodala, Ariza, Granger, Lee, and Blatche?  More importantly, we mostly likely wouldn't have landed the #1 pick in 06 and say lucked out to draft 6th and say we picked Brandon Roy instead? 

Even if we didn't land Roy, a line up of Lee in the middle, Bosh PF, Granger SF, Iggy SG and Jose as PG doesn't sound half bad.

I know I'm bending time here.. but I'd still like to have a do over.

I've written time and time again about how to build a winning team.. Pretty simple, you need a Batman and a Robin, and except for the 03-04 Pistons, in the last 30 years that's been pretty much the formulae.  The Celtics are also maybe more a justice league with the 3 headed monster, but close enough.  Everybody else is just filler.

And every team's batman or at the least the robin has come via the way of the draft: Kobe, Duncan, Wade.. well you could argue Shaq in LA was batman, Tony Parker (Robin), Jordan, Olajuwon, Isiah, Magic, Bird, Moses.    You get the drift or uhh the draft right?

You can say that only Shaq and Kareem came into their team as the Batman without getting drafted by their respective teams.  This is 30 years of history!

Bosh could have been that Robin, but in all likelyhood the only way for the Raps to win is to draft a Batman.

I'm not fully convinved, but I think Harrison Barnes could be that Batman.  The 6-8 209 lbs SF from Highschool will be heading to NC next year, and will have a chance to be that Batman.  Obviously there are no guarantees, but he could be the next real deal.

With that in mind, I think we need to clear the deck and not just draft for this year, but find pieces that might fit 2 to 3 years down the road and pull a New Jersey this season and get into the Lotto.  Again, no guarantees we'll even get him but there's an interesting back up plan in Perry Jones as well a 230 lbs 6-11 SF (going to Baylor).

I would try my best to trade down and pick up another pick and hope that with quantity, we can find some Robins of the future.  I think most of the draft after Wall, Turner and Cousins are just pieces.  I would love to try and get a Solomon Alabi, the 7'1 C from Florida.  I think the drop off between Cole Aldrich (who I like) and him aren't that far apart.  In fact with Cole's drop off this year, I'm actually quite fearful of the pick. 

Then I'd take a huge chance and try and land a project like Lance Stephenson.  Bad attitude aside, he was highly touted 2 years ago, but has been marred with off/on court mental issues.  But he's the type of gamble that could result in the Raptors first 2nd round pick to stick in franchise history.

Then hopefully we score another good pick in 2012, and see what happens from there.  But all of this will require plenty of patience and a long term build like we've never done before.  Could Raps nation wait that long for another playoff experience?

Well.. The Raptors definitely didn't "win" the lottery.  They're sitting 13th, and it ain't pretty, she just looks that way.  Historically 13th has been about as hodge podge as it gets.  The odds of a 13th draft pick making it to year 4 of the NBA is probably less than 50/50, though when I get the time, I'll have to take a look at that a little more carefully.  The Raps already has a former 13th overall pick in Marcus Banks on their roster, but they've also had the likes of Keon Clark.   There have been some rare hits like Richard Jefferson, Corey Maggette, I wouldn't call them franchise changers.  But just once in a lifetime, there is a spectacular pick.. and the most famous 13th pick ever and it'll never happen again.. Kobe.

Historically here's the last few picks at # 13 in chronological order and who officially picked them:

Tyler Hansbrough, Indiana    

Brandon Rush,  Portland

Julian Wright, New Orleans

Thabo Sefolosha, Philadelphia

Sean May, Charlotte

Sebastian Telfair, Portland

Marcus Banks, Memphis

Marcus Haislip, Milwaukee

Richard Jefferson, Houston

Courtney Alexander, Orlando

Corey Maggette, Seattle

Keon Clark, Orlando

Derek Anderson, Cleveland

Kobe Bryant, Charlotte

Let me start by outright stating I'm in no way a Hedo Fan, however I've been forced to write the counter argument because the level of Hate-On has become ridiculous.  Last nights interview, "Ball!" and those stupid Pizza Pizza "Yes Coach!" commercial definitely doesn't endure him to anyone. 

I never thought Hedo would be a great fit on this team, but not for the same reasons most of you have.  I currently don’t feel his current salary is the issue, nor his points production.  Hedo is an ultra rare class of the position of  "Point Forward", and with the guards the Raps have right now, this "Point Forward" position isn’t required.  However on a team like Orlando, especially when Nelson is on the bench, it’s where Hedo shines.   Having only watched a handful of Magic games this year, including last nights against Boston, they’re showing how much they miss a Hedo. 

I really think there’s only 4 other "point forwards" in the NBA: LeBron James, Lamar Odom, Boris Diaw, Andrei Kirilenko.   LeBron’s in a different universe, and really he’s a unique position onto himself.  We can argue the value of a Point Forward, but they’re all relatively similar.  They can all do everything just decently enough.  All are about 6’9ish, can handle the ball, can pass, can shoot with some range, can drive a little and grab some boards.

"Hedo Sucks"

2010            

Diaw:  FGA:  9.2, FG 46.2%, 3% 32.7, FT 75.7%, R 4.8, A 3.7, TO 2.3, PPG10.5

Odom: FGA: 8.6, FG 43.5%, 3% 30.1, FT 67%, R 9.9, A 3.7, TO 1.8, PPG, 9.6

Kirilenko: FGA: 8.2, FG 49.5%, 3% 33.9, FT 71.9%, R 4.6, A 2.7, TO 1.3, PPG 11.7

Hedo: FGA: 10, FG 40.1%, 3% 38.9, FT 80%, R 4.6, A 4.5, TO 1.8, PPG 12.6

It’s funny how eerily similar their stats are.  Yes Hedo is struggling with the FG%, but his career FG% isn't that great to begin with.  Clearly he is a better play maker and has a bit more range.  Fan expecations just aren't in line with reality here.

"He’s being paid too much"

Salary (over the length of remaining contract):

Diaw: 9M, 9M, 9M

Odom: 7.5M, 8.2M, 8.9M, 8.2M

Kirilenko: 16.4M, 17.8M

Hedo: 9M, 9.8M, 10.6M, 11.4M, 12.2M

Salary for Hedo is right in the same ball park, but yes a bit over paid, and crazy length for the contract.  BUT it doesn’t bother me as much as it’s bothering most of you.  People are so upset over the total value of the contract, however, as much as we think we can predict future returns on a player we can’t.  What I mean is, Hedo’s performance is relatively stable over his career, and it doesn’t mean that this team won’t lose Jose or Jack to injury or trade, which in that case the value of Hedo would rise.  Think back over the last two years where we’ve had to use AP and Delfino at the point position.  In the reverse scenario, even if he was performing well right now, it wouldn’t necessarily mean the value of the contract was good, as he could get hurt at any point or then suck later.  You wouldn't go around saying what a great contract and we've got Hedo locked in for 5 years if he was playing well, so you can't really do that when he's not playing well now (which I still disagree about).  The longer the contract the greater the risk, yes.  But there’s also no indicator’s as to what the salary cap will be in 3 or 4 years time.  In the NBA, the relative % of team salary is way more important that what the exact number is.  We just know it’s going down next year.  So long story short, I’m okay with the contract.   I definitely don’t love it, and it’s 2 years too long, however I understand why it needs to be there. 

"But we could have used the money to sign someone else!"

I’d like to ask who?  Last year’s crop of F/As: Allen Iverson, Lamar Odom, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Andre Miller, Anthony Parker, Drew Gooden, Chris Wilcox, Mike Bibby, Rasheed Wallace. 

Who in that crop 1) Would have come here (or stayed), 2) Made this team better? 

"But what about 2010 F/As"

Ok say we did nothing over the summer.  This team is worse than the previous year.  We lose Bosh.  You think we’re going to sign future F/As?  Best case scenario is, BC gambles to improve this team and have a chance to resign Bosh and have ok seasons the next few years. 

Hedo is a gamble not just for today, but for the future.  He was the best F/A available last season, and I’m okay with doing something vs. nothing.  The alternate universe could have been very very ugly for the franchise.  We could have kept last years team, but I much prefer this one.  Even if it means including Hedo.

Ok.. so it turns out I'm not THAT smrt.  Can you name the all time stats category leaders in this fun quiz?

http://www.sporcle.com/games/LucasEwalt/nbatop25

I scored 117of 200.  There were so many obvious ones, and ones that took me a while to spell.  Quite a few notable raptors.  Can you name them?

Also, players in the hall of fame: http://www.sporcle.com/games/nba_hof.php

NBA Points leaders in the 2000s: http://www.sporcle.com/games/nba_hof.php

There's another bunch there that you can look up.

In this post, I'll tell you why I'm so SMRT, and why I'm happy Hedo's in a Raptor jersey.

I thank the NBA scheduling gods this year for what so far has been my most profitable season to date.  The NBA season has paid for my family's vacation and then some.  As Tom Vu would say, "You can be rich like me!  Don't be a losah." (as he stands on his yacht with a boatload of bikini clad girls).   The secret?  Pretty simple.  Two-words.. Par-Lay.  Essentially you can get a 3 or 4 pick parlay at odds ranging from 12  - 16 to 1 at any respectable place of wagering minus the juice.  And lets just say, there's been some great opportunites this season and me going 4 - 5 has turned a measly $100 into well... something much more.  There aren't as many "opportunities" the rest of the season, but if you look carefully, there are a few dates left with some what I call "Jason vs the Stupid Teenage Campers who refuse to run away because they want to get some" (TM).  If you don't know what a parlay or juice is, use Google.  I don't want to be responsible for your losses.

Anyways... another reason I'm so SMRT.  Recall in August 2009 my predictions for the Raps: "December: A lot of home and aways but this is where they need to dominate. This is the softest part of the schedule and if they didn’t get destroyed in November, or even if they did, they need to move huge. If they go on a 6-12 start (which is very realistic if not probable)  they may not have the confidence to run December as they need to.  But let’s be positive and say they go 9-6 in December".  And if you add in my overall prediction, I have them at 17-16.

So what does this all mean?  Aside that I'm so SMRT.  The Raptors weren't as bad nor as good as what people thought they were at the beggining of the season or now.   This team is about as predicatable as Fox News after an Obama press conference.  They're a slightly above average team and are exactly what they seem to be on paper.

I know there's been a bunch of hate on for Hedo, and seriously if it wasn't for the Salary would anyone feel the same?  "Yeah yeah, but he makes soooo much money!  He should be performing like Kobe or LeBron!"  I understand you've all suffered from the Hakeem burn once, and the lingering effects are still there.  But the reality is, Toronto will never sign a tier 1 or 2 F/A without significantly overpaying for one.  Our F/As will NEVER meet fan expectations.  Toronto will always have to settle for the minimum/low wage signings and fawn how great they are, and establish a love affair with them: Garbo, Parker, Moon, Calderon, Pops,  Voshon Leonard, Dell Curry.

The reality is Hedo is the first significant F/A signing since the sign and trade with Hakeem... Hedo may never play up to his contract (in fact, I'll go on the record and say he won't), but it's also not lost on me that this is only the 2nd time in Raptor history that we've competed for a uppper tier F/A.  The other reality is that, the Raptors may NEVER sign another upper tier F/A again.  And for what its worth, Hedo is one of the key factors why this Raps team is competitive this year, and enjoyable to watch.

"But we're always going to be mediocre because our cap has maxed and will be sucky blah blah blah, and Hedo is sucky blah blah."  Really?  Tough.  You have a choice.  If we want a competitive team, the NBA formulae is fairly simple.  Suck for a really long time.  I mean pingpong balls for 4 to 5 years if you're lucky!  Want a building plan?  Check out Portland (years, winning percentages: 2003-07:.50%,.32%,.25%,.39%) , Cleveland (98-2003:.44%,.39%,.36%,.35%,.20%,.40%) , Atlanta (99-2007), Boston (93-2007, minus 2001-2003), Spurs 1986-1990, Dallas 1990 - 2000, Denver 1995-2003.  The thing all these teams had in common was they had to hit ROCK BOTTOM and in general stay down there for a while before they became elite.  The only exception to the rule has been the Lakers.

Now would I be okay with a bottom feeder for 5 years for a chance to win a Championship?  Maybe.  Unfortunately there are no guarantees (see Clippers) and in this town where all of our professional sports teams are constantently "rebuilding" (see Blue Jays, Leafs, TFC, Argos, Marlies and even the ROCK now), I couldn't take another losing team.  If we had even one other winning franchise, then maybe.  But if you want this team to be like the Jays for the last decade, then fine, take a pass on Hedo and don't even try.  It's sad to be a Jays fan when you see your team not even trying!  Boohoo, we've got the Yanks and RedSox in the same division, let's just give up.  What I appreciate about the Raps, is even though I'm not under any delusions of a Championship team, I appreciate that they retool and try.  None of this "rebuilding" crap.  After last season, it could have been really easy to open up the "rebuilding" umbrella.

Of all the major league teams in Toronto, with Doc Holliday gone, The Raps now have the top 3 or 4 athletes in this city (Bosh, Hedo, Bargnani, maybe Calderon... then it's a long way down to Aaron Hill and Phil Kessel).

So tell me, what would your plans be if we didn't sign Hedo?  The Raps would probably be 10-23, and we'd be moaning about Bosh and complaining how BC didn't do anything.

It's funny, how everyone loved Garbo and that he was a "glue" guy.. Yet Hedo is a better version of him.  I guess you can only be glue if you make less than $3M a year.

The other reason why I'm not so concerned about Hedo's salary is that BC has had this uncanny ability to get out of contracts.  He takes chances, but he's also not afraid to shake things up when it doesn't work.  I don't love BC, but he's a magician when it comes to bad contracts, even if he was the cause of them: Hoffa, Dixon, Freddie Jones, Jermaine O'Neal, and every Williams that has been on this team. 

And lastly (getting ready to come off my soap box), we should cherish a guy like Bosh.  He's the only true All-Star left in this town.  The city does a horrible job appreciating it's superstars (re: Doc).

Anyways, that's why I'm so SMRT, I mean SMART.

WHEN THE GAME WAS OURS

I grew up during the 80s during the LA Showtime era where Magic Johnson and Larry Bird ruled.  I remember playing one of my first favourite video games, "Larry Bird vs Dr J" on my cousin's Apple ][ and fell in love with Basketball.  It was a great era of basketball with two dominate teams in two divisions, it was Old School vs Showtime, physical vs finesse, East vs West. 

There has been no other 5 position player like Magic Johnson ever since, or a guy who could dominate and be as arrogant on the court as Larry Bird.

"When the game was ours" written by Larry Bird and Magic Johnson recounts those epic battles.  From the heady days of trading championships to the darker days of injury and illness, we come to understand Larry's obsessive devotion to winning and how his demons drove him on the court. We hear him talk with candor about playing through chronic pain and its truly exacting toll. In Magic we see a young, invincible star struggle with the sting of defeat, not just as a player but as a team leader. We are there the moment he learns he's contracted HIV and hear in his own words how that devastating news impacted his relationships in basketball and beyond. But always, in both cases, we see them prevail.

HARD WORK: A LIFE ON AND OFF THE COURT

Even though I wasn't a UNC fan, the legend of Dean Smith was huge when I first started watching NCAA ball.  I was a Duke fan because I had a huge crush with an "older" college girl working on an internship program in Toronto who was attending Duke.  But this book is about Roy Williams who also worshiped Dean Smith and is about his journey in become a succesor to Smith.  Williams tells the story of his life that few people know, from his turbulent family life as a child to the North Carolina Tar Heels' National Championship victory in 2009. He speaks candidly of his past, his passions, his inspirations, and the coaching philosphy behind one of college basketball's most successful programs. And he recounts the determination that took him from a small home in the mountains of North Carolina to the very pinacle of coaching success.

You don't have to be a Heel's fan or even a NCAA fan to enjoy this book.  It's more about a guide to remaining focused on life and achieving your goals.

The Raptors and the Grizzlies are "celebrating" their first 15 years in the NBA.  Hardly a celebration for both clubs considering one is no longer even in the city they originated in.  In fact out of the modern expansion era 2 of the six teams didn't make it to their 15th year, and question is out on the Bobcats.

So this chart documents by winning percentage.

via i50.tinypic.com

One of the best things about the NBA for professional gamblers is its relatively low deviation compared to other pro sports.  It means it's relatively low on the volatility index.  The NBA teams were mutual funds, they'd be much more like Yield funds vs equity or sector funds.  Not quite cash or bonds, but teams don't tend to vary a lot from one year or another.  Each team has their occasional blips, but still fairly low deviation.  The bobcats are a perfect example of almost 0 deviation.

Anyways, this isn't a gambling nor investment class.  The Raptors were well on their way of being one of the most successful expansion teams until year 7 hit.  The 2002-03 season with Lenny Wilkins at the helm was a mess.  The back to back drafting of Chris Jefferies and Michael Bradley in 2002 & 2001 really sunk the organization.  The Bradley year really hurt as Agent Zero, Gilbert Arenas and Tony Parker were sitting below.  The notable pick in 2002 was the 2nd round draft of Carlos Boozer.  Hindsight being 50-50 what would this team been like with VC, TP and Boozer?  Or even a Zach Randolph.

The team has never really bounced back from that and the Hoffa Years, however the team could have been in much worse shape if it wasn't for the BC acquiring free assets in Anthony Parker, Jorge Garbojossa, having Calderon develop and picking up Nesterovic and TJ Ford. 

I think the team is still in recovery mode from Babcock and being the worst of the expansion team years 8-11.

Even though these are expansion teams from the 80s and onwards, I think the last three teams, Raptors, Grizzlies and Bobcats are really in their own era.  Both Canadian teams were handcuffed as to how high they could draft.

They've arguably had a better trend in the first half of the franchise's existence compared to the others and was well on it's way to being a contender for the most successful expansion team.  In the end, the fact that the Raptors are still in the city, 4th in gate revenue and 9th in attendance is truly what makes this team "successful" and also that it's not in jeopardy of moving (at least anytime soon). 

Coaching in the big leagues is all about conformity.  It's about as conservative a brotherhood as you'll find.  You don't get to that point of being a professional coach without having attended thousands of hours of clinics where they all preach from the same bible.  Any creativity that you may have is knocked out of you.

The difference in schemes between any two NBA coaches are minimal at best. 

I've been a coach of 4 different sports for 15 years, and have managed to take previous year tier 3 teams and have them beating or competing with tier 1 teams the next season.  How?  A little creativity and breaking the unconventional?  One year in little league baseball I noticed how infrequent these 12 year olds were hitting it to the outfield, so I went with a permanent extra infielder and only 2 outfielders.   My outfielders were super speedy little kids but couldn't catch fly balls consistently so I only had two of them out there and all they really did was chase balls down whenever someone did hit it to the outfield.  But my extra infielder was able to make many more plays and also stop balls from rolling out into the field and extra base hits.  It worked out really well, but you can't imagine the heat I got from other coaches, opposing parents, and even parents on my team.  It was unconventional and against the spirit of the game (show me in the rules where it says exactly where all your players need to stand).

I'll admit I was young and eventually relented to the pressures and went back to a conventional system and only pulled in the extra infielder on certain situations.

Look at the heat Bill Belichick took for going for it on 4th down vs Indy inside his 30 earlier this season.  Even though there's a ton of theory on puntless football being a winning strategy (see: highschool wins state without punting http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=892888 or a bunch of probability debates http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2006/never-punting) Belichick has been lambasted.  And that's just on one play!  Imagine if Belichick did that on every drive?

Here's another great story of how David beat Goliath by Malcolm Gladwell that I posted a few days ago, about a basketball coach who didn't grow up watching hoops and implemented his own strategy of a true full court press every single play.  Eventually he had Roger Craig (former star running back of the 49ers) and his daughter help him coach their team in the state championships.  However opposing teams and refs got so furious with his strategy, he returned back to a conventional strategy in the finals and got killed.  It's a really great read:  http://www.gladwell.com/2009/2009_05_11_a_david.html 

So at the end of the day, coaches behaviours are driven by expecations and conformity.  If fans had the guts too they'd be cheering Belichick's decision.  The difference between any two NBA coaches is like choosing between a Macintosh or a Granny Smith. 

Unfortunately it takes guts to go unconventional.  It's always better to be the second person to do something than be a pioneer.