Wow - what a finish to the regular season! The play-in round was a doozy, and Ravenous Ute *just* snuck in over bsgillis to claim the 8th and final playoff spot. Both participants went 11-2 overall and 4-0 in MWC-affiliated picks, but the difference wound up being the tiebreaker. Neither player correctly picked Oklahoma over Nebraska, but Ravenous Ute *did* pick a smaller (incorrect) margin of victory for the Cornhuskers, so he gets the nod. He also had a bonus point advantage over bsgillis if there was any debating this as our procedure (though I clearly stated it was).

Overall, norcaliangelsfan picked up his first weekly victory in 14 attempts, and WolfpackNev collected his impressive 3rd bonus point, which ties him for the lead in that catgeory. It's fitting that 2 of the 4 players who've been with us since Week 1 would pick up the bonus and the weekly win in the final regular season round.

That being said... it's playoff time!!! All our information for the playoffs, including seeding and how non-playoff participants can keep playing... is after the jump.

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With Week 13 in the books, we're officially in full playoff mode here at MWC Pick 'Em. Last week's picks were critical in deciding who would be guaranteed a playoff spot, and very few were able to capitalize and help themselves. Despite the large variance in pick selection, most of the records turned out about the same (save for this week's winner and long-time Nevada-over-Boise foreshadower, WolfpackNev). Nevertheless, spots 6-8 wound up tied in terms of overall winning percentage, and the MWC winning percentage kicked in as the tiebreaker for a guaranteed spot in the playoffs.

Week 13's winner and bonus/tiebreaker recipient was WolfpackNev, who I'm sure views this as a small cherry atop his Nevada-over-Boise cake. We've all been commenting at him as though he was crazy, but he's not only been bold enough to call the Wolfpack's victory all season - he was the only one to call it last week, and it made a big difference.

This week, we'll be playing for two things. First and foremost, the final playoff spot for the 7 participants who didn't seal a playoff spot from their performance in weeks 1-13. For some of our participants who joined late, this is the week they've been waiting for. For those who've underperformed, this is their chance at redemption. To earn the final playoff spot, all one has to do is have the best record among the 7 not in already. Scores from weeks 1-13 will not count for this spot, and Craig de Aragon, who is 47 spots out of 7th place will have just as good a shot as GoRammies, who only missed out on a guaranteed spot due to his low MWC winning percentage.

However, that's not all we're playing for. This week is also our seeding week for those 7 participants who have already guaranteed themselves a playoff spot. Weeks 1-14 will be used for this process, so dmbase - who is currently in first place - will not lose his hard-earned advantage.

After this week's picks, we'll be moving on to Bowl Pick 'Em, the results of which will determine our playoff champion, premiership champion (overall record + bowls), and a bowl-specific Bowl Pick 'Em winner.

More information on how the playoffs will work, who's in, this week's match-ups and more.... after the jump.

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This week is the final true week of the Mountain West Connection Pick 'Em regular season! Week 12 saw a lot of movement in the standings, and this week's results will be the final decider for 7 out of our 8 playoff spots. Next week will be the play-in and seeding round, and all participants are encouraged to still pick, as those picks will still count towards both the playoff seeding and the premiership. Essentially those in the top 7 at the end of this week are automatically in the playoffs, but a poor performance next week could affect their seeding before the playoffs begin. The playoffs will take place during bowl season, and we'll also have an overall Bowl Pick 'Em and a lower bracket contest as well. If you want to see a better explanation of the playoffs, check the bottom of Week 11's post.

Week 12's weekly champion is Jeremy Mauss with an impressive 12-1 record. Had it not been for the destruction of Colorado State at the hands of Wyoming, he'd have gone a perfect 13-0. The bonus/tiebreaker was once again won by yours truly, with a pick of Utah +4. GoRammies also had Utah by 4, but as the rules we've been playing by note, in the event of a margin-based tie, the bonus goes to the person with the closest guess to total points scored. In that case, my estimation (58) was closer to the actual total (72) than GoRammies's was (50).

More on this week's contest after the jump...

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Erik’s 70-Team Bowl Projections

Well, I have absolutely no idea where 4 of C-USA’s 6 teams will be bowling, and the Cotton Bowl is going to be Hell to forecast, but other than that, this isn’t too crazy. After adding last week’s play into my season-based projections, I no longer believe the SEC will have 2 teams in the BCS, much to the chagrin of ESPN and the bowl cartel. I think Auburn loses to Alabama *and* South Carolina, and LSU will fall to Arkansas in Fayetteville. That gives the SEC a 3-loss conference champion in the Sugar Bowl and four 2-loss teams fighting for the conference’s top bowl bids. I just can’t see a 2-loss SEC team getting in over an undefeated TCU or a 1-loss Ohio State, so new game predictions shake up my bowl projections considerably.

When it comes to SMU, Southern Miss, UTEP, and Tulsa bowling in the Hawai’i, New Orleans, St. Petersburg, and Armed Forces Bowl, your guess is as good as mine.

If you read last week’s projections, you know the drill. I don’t like the corporate sponsorship of bowl games, so I call all bowls by their original name or bid name. If you’re an even halfway-decent college football fan, you should be able to figure them out if you don’t know them already. With that said, here's my stab at how 70 teams will be matched up in 35 games...

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This is a FanPost of something that occurred to me while bantering with plainview88 in a different thread.

It occurred to me today, while surveying what's left of the college football season, that the inclusion of Stanford in a BCS game may be the biggest threat to getting both TCU and Boise State into BCS games (sorry, norcaliangelsfan). How did I reach this conclusion? Let me break it down for you...

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A solid Week 11 is in the books, and we're down to the final two weeks before things get interesting. Arizona and Utah did some damage to everyone's picks, and the toss-ups of CSU-BYU, Wyoming-UNLV,  and Baylor-A&M put a hurtin' on as well. Nevertheless, some escaped the week doing pretty well for themselves.

dmbase was the weekly champion again, much to my chagrin. As some of you may know from the Saturday open thread, I thought I won the bonus and the week, but I didn't realize dmbase had a better MWC record than myself and the other two who finished 10-3 (I was the closest among the four and among everyone in guessing Nevada's win margin).

If anyone still needs a clarification on how the bowls/playoffs will work, be sure to check out last week's contest. Last week also goes over the championships and awards that we're playing for.

Note: Since Air Force @ UNLV is on Thursday night, I'll assume that anyone who doesn't get their picks in before kick-off picked the Zoomies *only* if nobody picks UNLV. Otherwise, you're out of luck for being late. I will make no assumptions about the Friday night Fresno State @ Boise State game, as mentioned last week

With that said, let's go over what Week 11 has meant to the contest before we pick for Week 12:

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This post has been promoted to the front page for being awesome.

Note: There have been some edits since the initial posting, as I didn't know the ACC was the back-up for the bowl in San Francisco. That sort of threw some picks into chaos.

Yes, my real name is Erik - like the Viking, but I'm not 'red.' Anyways, I spent a solid 5 hours trying to put together bowl projections, and let me tell you: it's a motherf*cker. I'm now convinced that most 'bowl projection' people have no idea what they're doing, because you pretty much have to simulate out all the games to get an idea of how things might fall. For example, some have realized that the Pac-10 is not going to be able to fill its Las Vegas slot, but how many realize how close the Pac-10 is to not filling its Sun Bowl obligations? Granted, in my simulation, I have UCLA *just* squeaking into that slot, but it's UCLA - nobody really knows how they're going to finish down the stretch, and Washington, Oregon State, and ASU more than likely won't be getting it done. Southern Cal has really screwed their conference more than most realize. Not only are the Trojans not allowed to go bowling, but their wins are going to likely keep 1 or 2 Pac-10 brethren from going bowling also. Picking for the bottom bowls is going to get really messy, and I try to simulate what I think could be a realistic scenario for panicking bowl organizers.

Note that for my projections I have South Carolina topping Auburn in the SEC Championship (partly a homer prediction, partly a realization that Auburn is playing poorly lately and the Gamecocks only lost to them by 8 at Auburn) and Oklahoma State topping Nebraska in the Big XII Championship (after the Texas game, methinks the Huskers aren't so hot at the 'revenge/farewell' tour gig). Also, I still call all the bowls by either their old names or their initial bid names - I'm not a fan of corporate sponsorship. So, if you get confused, sorry, but true college fans should follow this path as well. In what's supposed to be an 'amateur' sport, we shouldn't glorify the influx of money that has destroyed and distorted the game's ability to be balanced and fair. That being said, here's 70 teams (just barely) in 35 bowls. Enjoy.

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Week 10 is down, and I can't believe we've been at this for 10 weeks already. The playoffs are drawing near (yes, that's right - we have playoffs!), and the standings are getting tight.

To clarify how we'll be doing the playoffs, let me explain:
The top 7 participants will be automatically in. From there, we'll have a play-in round for the last spot. The play-in round will count towards everyone's overall record, and can also still impact the seeding of the top 7 (who, at that point will be automatically in). However, the top 7 cannot fall out of the playoffs in the play-in round no matter how poorly they play. The top participant from outside the top 7 (i.e. spots 8-15) in the play-in round will then be seeded as the 8th team for the playoffs. This play-in spot (No. 8) will be decided solely on performance in the play-in round, and participants previous records will not count towards play-in eligibility. Play-in round records will go to your overall record, however (the Premiership).

For a listing of the championships and awards we'll be playing for, look for more information after the jump. This information will be located after the pick 'em match-ups for Week 11.

Week 10's champion is dmbase, who captured his third weekly championship. Incredible. He gets the nod over Jeremy and bsgillis since he picked TCU in the tiebreaker (all three had 10-3 records). In terms of the overall bonus/tiebreaker, last week's winner was GoRammies, who picked the Frogs to win by the widest margin (most picked a tight score, and nobody predicted the type of carnage that actually occurred.)

Anyways, before we get to pickin' for Week 11, here's Week 10's picks and standings:

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Well, Week 9 is over, and it was a rousing success for most (though my picks didn't turn out so hot, personally). The standings are tighter than ever, with 4 participants sitting with equal overall records, and the tiebreakers are really starting to kick in.

Ravenous Ute picked up the win last week, and scored an additional bonus point for a perfect record (a precedent set weeks back when rebelfan1 scored a perfect record), while HawkeyedFrog picks up the bonus/tiebreaker point for the margin in the Utah-Air Force game (most people predicted a blowout, but HawkeyedFrog was only 1 point off of the margin of victory).

This is probably the biggest weekend for MWC games this year, with Utah-TCU and Boise State-Hawaii on the menu, and there's a number of tasty match-ups between ranked teams in the non-con as well. There are only 3 weeks left after this, so every pick counts!

Before we begin pickin' for Week 10, here's Week 9's Standings and Picks:

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Week 8 is done, and can you believe it? We're already on Week 9! Last week was a little more typical as far as performance goes, with everyone picking up at least 8 correct picks, and bsgillis going a remarkable 12-1 (and winning the week in the process).

The bonus/tiebreaker point this week goes to NC_Ute for his prediction in the BYU-Wyoming game. With the Cougars winning 25-20, NC_Ute's 4-point margin prediction (28-24) was the closest alongside bsgillis (19-15) and norcaliangelsfan (31-27). However, NC_Ute was closer to the overall number of points scored, which is our method of determining the bonus point winner when multiple participants are tied.

This week there will be only 12 match-ups to choose from, as all participants will get credit for Boise State defeating Louisiana Tech (the Tuesday game caught me off guard, and I don't doubt that everyone would have picked the Broncos). That is, all participants who play this week will get credit.

Before we begin pickin' for Week 9, here's Week 8's Standings and Picks:

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Week 7 is done, and all I can say about it? Brutal. For the 15 participants who submitted picks last week, it was the worst showing yet for 8 of them (myself included). It was also the second-worst showing for another 3 participants. Ouch. As a result, we only had 2 people reach 10 correct picks or more (for reference we had 3 do so in Week 6, 10 do so in Week 5, and 6 do so in Week 4. Week 2 also had 12 people pick 10 or more out of 13 participants). A lot of this was thanks to...

Everyone getting Nevada-Hawaii wrong.
13 /15 people getting Air Force-SDSU wrong.
12/15 people getting Texas-Nebraska wrong.
8/15 people getting Michigan-Iowa wrong.
8/15 people getting Missouri-Texas A&M wrong.
8/15 people getting California-Southern Cal wrong.
7/15 people getting CSU-UNLV wrong.
6/15 people getting Arkansas-Auburn wrong.
5/15 people getting Wisconsin-Ohio State wrong.

With all the chaos this has done to the overall board, there has been a lot of shuffling in the standings. Some participants don't have a drop week to spare (remember, we drop everyone's worst 2 weeks) due to inactive weeks, and others now have a less-than-average week factored into their score because they needed to use this week instead of a past poor performance. norcalianglesfan and myself (VA Libertarian) are the biggest gainers in the standings, each moving up 3 places, while HawkeyedFrog takes the biggest tumble (down 4). However, the standings are pretty tight, and movement throughout the next few weeks is all but assured.

Week 7's winner was bsgillis (who gets the nod over norcaliangels fan thanks to his tiebreaker score), and the Tiebreaker/Bonus this week goes to Craig_de_Aragon, who predicted the best margin of victory for CSU over UNLV.

Don't forget - we here at MWC Pick 'Em have *3* unique championships to play for:
-The Premiership, which will go to the person who has the highest score throughout the regular season *and* the playoffs. This is unlike premierships in sporting leagues, which generally encompass only the regular season.
-The Cup Championship, which will go to the person who wins the playoff, which is a series of single-elimination head-to-head match-ups.
-The Plate Championship, which will go the person with the best overall bowl season record who did not make the playoffs. Plate Championship eligibility is open to anyone who wants to play: they don't have to be a part of the regular season.

This week's match-ups feature only 5 (5!?!?!) MWC-affiliated games plus 8 BCS-AQ games, so let's get to pickin'!

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With Week 6 down, it's on to Week 7! Week 6 was definitely the hardest week we've had so far, with our winner (dmbase) garnering only 10 wins, and all participants averaging only 8.4 correct picks. The non-MWC games in particular were brutal, with participants averaging only 1.75 correct picks over 4 games. In fact, only norcaliangelsfan was able to get 3 out of 4 correct! In MWC-affiliated games, the BYU-SDSU game really tripped everyone up (only 2 out of 12 picked BYU), as did Fresno State vs. Hawaii (only 4 out of 12 picked Hawaii) and New Mexico vs. New Mexico State (5 out of 12).

Week 6's winner was dmbase, with 10 correct picks. Jeremy Mauss and myself (VA Libertarian) also had 10 correct picks, but dmbase was closer in the tiebreaker score (New Mexico vs. New Mexico State). Oddly enough, dmbase was also the closest overall estimator of the score in the UNM-NMSU game, and also receives the Week 6 bonus as result.

Don't forget - we here at MWC Pick 'Em have *3* unique championships to play for:
-The Premiership, which will go to the person who has the highest score throughout the regular season *and* the playoffs. This is unlike premierships in sporting leagues, which generally encompass only the regular season.
-The Cup Championship, which will go to the person who wins the playoff, which is a series of single-elimination head-to-head match-ups.
-The Plate Championship, which will go the person with the best overall bowl season record who did not make the playoffs. Plate Championship eligibility is open to anyone who wants to play: they don't have to be a part of the regular season.

This week's match-ups feature only 7 MWC-affiliated games plus 6 BCS-AQ games, so let's get to pickin'!

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*UPDATE*: I made a major error in putting this list together: I forgot that the Pac-10 has already been operating on a 9-game conference schedule and, as such, its teams aren't going through panic/drop mode like Big X-II and Big Ten teams are. As such, there are number of Pac-12 teams added to the list, though their 10/1/11 availability is unknown, since the Pac-12 hasn't announced its new 2011 schedule yet. California is considered (by me) as a strong option, seeing as they have *zero* OOC games scheduled thus far (their only 1 previously scheduled was Colorado, who's now joining their conference). They're not the strongest team to play, but their wide-open schedule makes them the most likely (?).

This fanpost is partially inspired by a comment left on the "Utah cancels series with Boise State football" article made my mrefficiency. In his comment, mrefficiency listed some possible alternatives to playing Utah, though I was alert to point out that all but one of the suggested options weren't available. How do I know this? The glory that is fbschedules.com (I only found out about this site about a month ago, but I'm addicted already).

That being said, what are Boise State's options, realistically?

The replacement game isn't likely to come from the Pac-12, Big Ten, or Big X-II, as all three of those conferences are switching to 9-game conference schedules, and most of their teams are actually *dropping* games, not adding them. That leaves just the Big East, ACC, and SEC to search for games from, but if the Broncos are limited to filling a 10/1 date, it could be killer. Obviously, it would be wise to discard that date and hope the MWC is kind enough to fill the date in with a conference game. That, or turn it into BSU's bye week.

For the record, I'm not working off the assumption that the MWC will have a 9-game conference schedule, because I'm well aware of Air Force's fierce opposition to this proposal, the MWC's fear of pissing Air Force off, and the *further* scheduling complications this would make for everyone else, as many MWC teams already have 4 OOC games lined up (which just adds to the chaos of Big X-II, Pac-12, and Big Ten teams trying to shed games).

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Week 5 is in the books, and it's starting to get interesting in the standings. Lots of people are tied overall, and the tiebreaking procedures are really starting to come into play.

This week's win goes to dmbase, who killed it with a 12-1 record. Were it not for the BYU massacre that few predicted (only 3 out of 14 people picked Utah State), dmbase would have had our second perfect 13-0. NC Ute gets this week's tiebreaker/bonus point for correctly picking Air Force's margin of victory over Navy.

Don't forget - we here at MWC Pick 'Em have *3* unique championships to play for:
-The Premiership, which will go to the person who has the highest score throughout the regular season *and* the playoffs. This is unlike premierships in sporting leagues, which generally encompass only the regular season.
-The Cup Championship, which will go to the person who wins the playoff, which is a series of single-elimination head-to-head match-ups.
-The Plate Championship, which will go the person with the best overall bowl season record who did not make the playoffs. Plate Championship eligibility is open to anyone who wants to play: they don't have to be a part of the regular season.

This week's match-ups feature 9 MWC-affiliated games plus 4 big-time BCS-AQ games, so let's get to pickin'!

Before we begin, however, here's Week 4's Standings and Picks:

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Week 4 is over, and Week 5 is now here for your enjoyment. As promised, the standings have shaken out a little now that we're 4 weeks in. From this point on, all players will have their *two* lowest scores dropped from the overall standings, and I'll be recalculating the lowest scores each week as we go.

Tragically (or humorously, depending on your perspective), Go Rammies would have won for the second week in a row had he not picked against his own team. Instead, the week's win goes to Gokyle45. In terms of the bonus/tiebreaker, Hawkeyedfrog gets the nod for picking the Nevada margin of victory while being closer to the final score than anyone else.

With the standings adjusted from here on out, rebelfan1 can at long last reap the benefits of his perfect 13-0 Week 2 score, but he'll have to put up a fight from here on out if he hopes to stay on top. It looks as though we may have a 13-man race to the finish, which would be great (and creepy?) since we have 13 games a week and 13 weeks of Pick 'Em before the bowl season playoffs. If we can manage to keep this many players, we'll do an 8-team playoff (splitting bowl season into 3 segments), with the top 7 automatically qualifying, and the final berth being determined in a Week 14 play-in round (a few scattered games in the MWC, a few big OOC games such as Oregon @ Oregon State, plus conference championships). Also, don't forget - we here at MWC Pick 'Em have *3* unique championships to play for:
-The Premiership, which will go to the person who has the highest score throughout the regular season *and* the playoffs. This is unlike premierships in sporting leagues, which generally encompass only the regular season.
-The Cup Championship, which will go to the person who wins the playoff, which is a series of single-elimination head-to-head match-ups.
-The Plate Championship, which will go the person with the best overall bowl season record who did not make the playoffs. Plate Championship eligibility is open to anyone who wants to play: they don't have to be a part of the regular season.

Week 4 provided us with some of the chaos we all so enjoy, and Week 5 may promise to do the same with 5 OOC match-ups featuring ranked teams against each other, as well as a juicy Navy @ Air Force game.

All that being considered, here's Week 4's Standings and Picks:

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This is being promoted to the front page from the fanshot section.

Week 3 is in the books, and Week 4 is now here! Starting next week, I'll begin dropping everyone's 2 lowest scores in calculating the winning percentages so we can get a better feel for how the standings are going. In the meantime, I'll be posting the standings as they've been calculated in weeks past. I'm also going to be posting the master spreadsheets for everyone to look at, so they can see exactly how things are being tallied. For instance, those who didn't play at all in a given week (many of whom include Week 1), I haven't calculated their non-score into their total yet, as that's a guaranteed drop week. For everyone else, I'll be able to get a better grasp of their lowest scores as the contest moves forward. For example, norcaliangelsfan, rebelfan1, WolfPackNev, and myself have been playing every week, so our percentages look out of whack compared to everyone else. Likewise, Jeremy Mauss somehow only picked in 6 games last week (I'm assuming it was a typo or pasting error), so his percentage looks off as well. For those 5 players (the 4 originals + Jeremy), we'll get a better feel for their standing next week.

GoRammies had the best overall and MWC record this week (11-2 and 9-1, respectively), and this week's bonus goes to me (hooray!), as I was the closest predictor of Missouri's margin of victory over SDSU.

With that said, here's Week 3's Standings and Picks:

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*CORRECTION* Someone has pointed out that GoRammies actually picked the Zoomies by 11, not by 7, and I'll be adjusting the bonus point accordingly this afternoon (sorry, LoboJo).

Hey y'all - Week 2 is now in the books, and rebelfan1 pulled off our first undefeated week. For that, he'll receive a bonus point in the overall standings, and much praise from the MWC community.

Moving on, however...

Air Force - BYU was nowhere near as close as anyone thought. The biggest margin of victory that anyone predicted for the Zoomies was 7, so the bonus/tiebreaker point there goes to LoboJo, whose prediction was closest in terms of points scored (he said 28-21, which mirrors the 49 points scored in the 35-14 AF victory).

Since the number of MWC games each week varies, there's going to be a new (fair) way of calculating everyone's MWC standing while still allowing for everyone's worst 2 scores to be dropped. Each week, I'll be calculating the winning percentage of everyone's MWC picks, and averaging them with the other weeks. For example, I'll show you how my own MWC score was calculated:

In Week 1, I went 8-2 in MWC play (.800). In Week 2, I went 6-1 (.857) in MWC play. Thus, I added .800 and .857, and divided by 2 (the # of weeks played) to get .829. Make sense? Good.

With that said, here's Week 2's Standings and Picks:

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This post has been promoted to the front page from the fanshot section.

Hey y'all - Week 1 of the contest was fun, and this post will have the Week 1 standings, picks, and some rule clarifications.

A.) Instead of saying "Picks will be due every week by the kickoff of the first game played," the rule will be changed to "No pick will be counted after kickoff of a given game." This allows someone to make picks early Saturday morning, for example, and only cost themselves the weekday games and maybe 1 or 2 early morning games. Since all posts are time-stamped, this should be fine.

B.) We'll look at the regular season / playoff picture more when more players join. As of right now, there are only 4 players, so at this rate we'll just keep with a single season mode.

C.) Participant norcaliangelsfan accidentally bolded over 4 games while making his/her picks last week, so I can't give him credit for those. It's suggest that, when making one's picks, you only write the name of the team you think will win (or say Colorado d. Colorado State). Bolding, italicizing, etc. could easily lead to typos, which I hate to see happen.

D.) We'll continue to monitor how to handle Week 1 as the season progresses. If nobody else joins, obviously we'll count it. If not, it'll likely be a bonus round.

E.) As of right now, players are entitled to drop their worst week of play in determining the final standings. This may bump out to worst two weeks as the season progresses, depending on how we handle Week 1.

F.) Standings will be determined by number of wins in a given week, not by win/loss percentage. Thus, if someone submits their picks late, they're not rewarded for having a better win/loss percentage than someone who incorrectly picked on-time. When wins are equal/tied, the standings will be determined by the bonus points from tie-breakers. Only 1 person is given the bonus point for a tie-breaker each week, but weekly standings will also be determined by the previous week's tiebreaker (if necessary).
For example, in Week 1, WolfpackNev was the closest in predicting the BSU-VT score, so he gets the bonus/tiebreaker point (which counts in the standings long-term). However, norcaliangelsfan and rebelfan1 also tied for third with 8 correct picks each, however norcaliangels fan was closer to the BSU-VT score than rebelfan1 was, so he gets 'third' for the week.

G.) Because Week 1 only wound up with 13 games (since none of us picked the Thursday games) *and* because conference play is underway, each week will actually only be 13 games.

H.) Remember, the Pick 'Em contest's MWC standings include current members and verified future members (Nevada, Fresno State, Boise State).

With that said, here's Week 1's Standings and Picks:

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