VTinACC
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Statistical Score Estimate vs. Clemson (2.0)
by VTinACC on Nov 30, 2011 3:56 PM EST
in Virginia Tech Football
on Gobbler Country
Clemson Game
Let's hope this prediction goes a little bit better than the last time I tried to do this for Clemson. A 35-17 victory was predicted last time and it couldn't have been farther from the truth. We have a full season of averages to work with this time and Excel likes the Hokies by nearly 7 points still. Again, that's predicted because their awful run defense should be shredded up by DW, but that's all predicated on providing offensive balance with LT3.
| Game Estimates | ||||
| Team | Exp Rush | Exp Pass | Exp Total | Calc Score |
| Clemson | 97.5 | 258.7 | 356.2 | 23.0 |
| Virginia Tech | 223.8 | 200.3 | 424.1 | 29.8 |
Statistical Score Estimate vs. Virginia
by VTinACC on Nov 23, 2011 12:51 PM EST
in Virginia Tech Football
on Gobbler Country
Virginia Game
The margin of victory this week is yet even smaller than last week. While still predicted to win, it is only by 4.4 points. Last week the Excel did good, so lets hope we can do the same thing this week.
| Game Estimates | ||||
| Team | Exp Rush | Exp Pass | Exp Total | Calc Score |
| Virginia | 121.2 | 210.2 | 331.4 | 19.4 |
| Virginia Tech | 152.7 | 215.5 | 368.2 | 23.8 |
Statistical Score Estimate vs. North Carolina
by VTinACC on Nov 15, 2011 5:04 PM EST
in Virginia Tech Football
on Gobbler Country
North Carolina Game
Last week, it was predicted that we'd have more rushing yards than Georgia Tech and somehow that actually happened. Let's hope the prediction is right again this week.
The margin of victory is actually a bit slimmer this week as compared to last week. Statistically, it's because the weaker part of our defense is our pass defense and that is North Carolina's offensive strength where it was just a battle at the line last week. A 4.8 point victory predicted by Excel this week.
| Game Estimates | ||||
| Team | Exp Rush | Exp Pass | Exp Total | Calc Score |
| North Carolina | 100.9 | 225.6 | 326.6 | 20.9 |
| Virginia Tech | 140.3 | 246.5 | 386.8 | 25.7 |
Statistical Score Estimate vs. Georgia Tech
by VTinACC on Nov 8, 2011 11:00 AM EST
in Virginia Tech Football
on Gobbler Country
Georgia Tech Game
Personally, I throw the normal statistics out on this game since our undersized defenders are just built to get worn down against GT in this game, but I'll go ahead and throw up the stats anyways. Last week, the Mighty Excel didn't get too close on the score but you'll notice it only missed VT's total yards by 4 and Duke's by 6. The sample size seems to be getting the estimates closer. It's just up to StineCain to get the damn ball in the endzone.
This week, we're predicted to win by over 5 points mainly because their offensive strength (2nd best run offense) is matches our defensive strength (8th best run defense) while our offensive strength (34th best run offense) matches their defensive weakness (70th best run defense). We all know it will probably be 5 points or less, but if we do in fact get more rushing yards in this game than they do we better win the damn game.
| Game Estimates | ||||
| Team | Exp Rush | Exp Pass | Exp Total | Calc Score |
| Virginia Tech | 199.6 | 180.6 | 380.2 | 25.5 |
| Georgia Tech | 176.3 | 128.7 | 305.1 | 19.9 |
Rest of Virginia Tech Football Ruled Out Against GT
by VTinACC on Nov 4, 2011 4:39 PM EDT
on Gobbler Country
And we thought the injuries were bad the first 9 games. Details on the injuries after the jump.
[FYI: This is just a joke. For those of you without a sense of humor, chill the F out. I'm just bored during bye week.]
Statistical Score Estimate vs. Duke
by VTinACC on Oct 26, 2011 11:06 AM EDT
in Virginia Tech Football
on Gobbler Country
Just so you don't have to dig for the actual score every week, it will be put on the front each week and you can take a look at the details after the jump if you want.
Duke Game
Only a 12 point victory picked this week for a couple of reasons: 1. Duke's offensive strength (their passing game) matches up well against the weaker part of our defense and 2. Duke's defensive strength (their run defense) may be able to neutralize our offensive cornerstone of pounding the rock. Add that to the fact that every year Cutcliffe sells out against the run more than any other team we face in the ACC and this may be a pretty close estimate. The obvious X factor being how well Logan can overcome that.
| Game Estimates | ||||
| Team | Exp Rush | Exp Pass | Exp Total | Calc Score |
| Duke | 71.0 | 261.1 | 332.1 | 19.8 |
| Virginia Tech | 179.3 | 258.2 | 437.5 | 31.6 |
Statistical Score Estimate vs. Boston College
by VTinACC on Oct 19, 2011 10:37 AM EDT
in Virginia Tech Football
on Gobbler Country
Not much of an introduction this week. Excel picked Oklahoma State, Oregon, and Texas A&M correctly while missing Michigan State's domination of Michigan (forgot to analyze Michigan State defenders ripping of Denard Robinson's head) and Auburn (who is the anti-VT always outplaying their statistics while we always play below ours).
One thing of note. I've added the actual YPG of each statistic to give a relative sense of how each category is adjusted based on the teams played so far.
Statistical Score Estimate vs. Wake Forest
by VTinACC on Oct 11, 2011 7:47 PM EDT
on Gobbler Country
Well, the mighty Excel didn't get the Ohio State pick right, but they did in fact score more than 23 points and it outpicked some "eyeballs". Starting to get a larger population of data, so let's see if we can't go undefeated.
Details about the Hokie team, their score, and other important games of the week after the jump.
Statistical Score Estimate vs. Miami
by VTinACC on Oct 4, 2011 1:19 AM EDT
on Gobbler Country
The spreadsheet took a definite hit in the Virginia Tech game but looked good in it's blowout predictions for Alabama and Wisconsin (and should've been A&M until they blew another one) and picked the SMU upset over TCU.
As we always know, the Hokies statistics always seem to favor better than their actual play but let's hope ol' mighty Excel can get this one right.
Another Reason Hokie Fans Should Be Happy We Don't Have to Go to Morgantown
Looks like nothing has changed in Morgantown since we left.
Statistical Score Estimate vs. Clemson
by VTinACC on Sep 26, 2011 10:36 AM EDT
on Gobbler Country
Last week, the estimate was not too far off especially if you made some manual adjustments for Home and Away, so I should probably just quit but let's put the spreadsheet to the test for a second week in a row.
And while I'm at it, I was able to get all of the teams added so we'll look and see what might happen in other notable games this week. As one person recommended, I have added a rank so that you can see how each category (Run and Pass/Offense and Defense) is comparable to the rest of the league.
Details after the jump. If you missed how the calculations are determined, you can check last week's post for the Marshall score estimate.
Statistical Score Estimate vs. Marshall
by VTinACC on Sep 21, 2011 5:00 PM EDT
on Gobbler Country
[Ed. Note: Bumped from FanPosts for nerdiness.]
I've always been a total statistics nerd and I like translating it in sports, so I thought I'd try and give some the same sort of analysis for college football teams and Virginia Tech specifically. I'm sure some other blog probably already has some analysis based on the same premise taken to a whole other level that blows mine away, but I'm a sucker for punishment so I'll share mine here. I'll give it a shot if free time permits and if it doesn't totally suck for each game the rest of the year.
Details of the calculations after the jump.
VT Basketball opens at #23 in Coaches Poll
Hokies only one of three ACC teams in poll.
All the Analysis A Bit Overboard, Hokies Still A Talented Team
by VTinACC on Sep 15, 2010 9:52 PM EDT
on Gobbler Country
[Ed. Note: Bumped from FanPosts.]
Only an idiot schedules a game five days after a huge season opener. That would be Virginia Tech athletic director Jim Weaver, though he certainly didn't OK this game without approval from coach Frank Beamer (5). Which makes them both idiots. If you want historical precedent, look all the way back to last year. Colorado lost on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend to rival Colorado State, then turned around and traveled to Toledo for a Friday night game. Result: a 54-38 humiliation that all but ruined the Buffaloes' season. Or there's Florida State, which lost a 38-34 thriller on Labor Day '09 to Miami, then five days later trailed Jacksonville State 9-7 with less than a minute to play before pulling out the victory.
Quote from Pat Forde's Forde Yard Dash. Just using it to show there's other cases of what happened and the analysis this week may be a bit overboard.
My thoughts after the jump.
SB Nation's 100 Thoughts on College Football
Virginia Tech got its rib-shot:
73. Frank Beamer will open up Bud Foster's lunchpail. Inside: a peanut butter sandwich, a thermos full of coffee, a cookie, and the same two losses Virginia Tech always piles up due to their perennially anemic offense.
Other related entries:
100. Boise State's Kellen Moore has beautiful footwork. He will never take off his shoes on national television, because if he did you would see that he has no feet and four hands. It's not easy being a quarterback who can type with his feet, but he bears the burden well.
99. The Thursday Night games on ESPN this year are more than the usual paltry hors d'oeuvres for the weekend: Auburn/Miss State, Miami at Pitt, Texas A&M at Oklahoma State, South Florida at West Virginia...okay, these are the usual hors d'oeuvres. We're all just very hungry for football, and anything sounds like fillet mignon at this point.
40. Georgia Tech will win the ACC again this year. Paul Johnson will celebrate by cut-blocking ACC Commissioner John Swofford on the award podium in front of a screaming crowd of hundreds just because he can.
34. Miami QB Jacory Harris will have a spectacular season provided he can overcome his inner Rex Grossman, since Harris does tend to have a "F--- it, I'm going deep" streak in him.
LT Becton Has Turf Toe
And so it begins. Just as my confidence was growing, our starting LT will sit out for at least 2 weeks. This is definitely not good for someone who needs as many reps as he does.
Glad To Be Part of a Classy Program
by VTinACC on Jul 28, 2010 3:51 PM EDT
on Gobbler Country
[Ed. Note: Bumped from FanPosts.]
For the past few weeks I've been trolling the Boise State SB Nation blog as its part of my Hokie duty to spy on what they're saying/thinking on the inside. The funniest thing I see is our Virginia Tech fans going over them to wish them luck and give them a fair (okay I call it fair, but its most likely still slightly biased) opinion on the upcoming game. The ensuing comments are the hilarious part as they treat it like a Trojan Horse that will attack from the inside if they let it in because they're so used to regular college football fans slander them before each of their games.
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Friday's Pitching Matchup Announced
Darryl Slater comments on the coaches decisions for Friday's starters. Looks like the Hokies are going with Justin Wright and Citadel will not throw its ace, Asher Wojciechowski, but Matt Talley. Great news for the Hokies.
Story on Hokies' OT Ed Wang
Yahoo Sports with a little writeup on two firsts:
1. First big Chinese Wang.
2. First Tackle who never blocked a single DE on a pass play in College to be considered a good pro prospect.
"It’s critical to protect Tyrod’s back side..."
Bill Roth gives us a F4H style look (and don't it twisted the other way around) at 5 important players to look at this Spring.
...And Stiney lands a great quote.
CBS Projects Hokies as 10 Seed
...while ESPN still has us out. Pretty dramatic difference.
CoC upsets UNC
Thanks, CoC for pissing off the Heels before we play them.
Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Efficiency
by VTinACC on Jan 5, 2010 9:56 AM EST
on Gobbler Country
VT Defensive Efficiency - Opponent 3rd Down Conversions
| Opponent | 3rd Dwn Conv % | 3rd Dwn Att. | Ex 3rd Dwn Convs | 3rd Dwn Conv | Eff |
| Miami | 44.63% | 11 | 4.91 | 1 | 0.204 |
| Duke | 37.36% | 19 | 7.10 | 7 | 0.986 |
| Boston College | 30.23% | 13 | 3.93 | 1 | 0.254 |
| Georgia Tech | 53.48% | 15 | 8.02 | 8 | 0.997 |
| North Carolina | 37.10% | 19 | 7.05 | 10 | 1.419 |
| Maryland | 36.56% | 16 | 5.85 | 4 | 0.684 |
| NC State | 44.81% | 12 | 5.38 | 5 | 0.930 |
| Virginia | 34.27% | 16 | 5.48 | 8 | 1.459 |
| Season | 39.81% | 121 | 48.16 | 44 | 0.914 |
Grimm, Williams, Waldron, Bowden Make First Team All-ACC
by VTinACC on Nov 30, 2009 11:02 PM EST
on Gobbler Country
http://www.hokiesports.com/football/recaps/20091130aac.html
All that is not too surprising, but there were some surprises on the second team.
Pretty boy Ed Wang and hard-hitting, but can't-cover-his-shadow Kam Chancellor made second team All-ACC. Also making it was our tight-end that we don't throw to nearly enough -- Greg Boone --, Sergio Render, and Jason Worilds.
Making honorable mention were Beau Warren, Blake DeChristopher, and Rashad Carmichael (who I feel put up at least a second team All-ACC type of season).
All in all there was some great talent on this team as shown by the credentials earned on Monday. If only we weren't so weak in the middle of the defense for the first 2/3s of the season.
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