The second the NFL Championship games were over and we knew the Super Bowl match-up, I knew it was coming. It's like the swallows returning to Capistrano or Jets fans hating their first round pick -- you can set your clock to it (assuming you had one of those clocks that counts in years).

What I'm referring to is the inevitable story about how baseball has more parity than football because of the higher number of repeat champions in the NFL. Normally, Jayson Stark is the one championing the cause (and I actually like Stark), but this year Tom Verducci beat him to it.

Now, normally, this is one of those things that I wouldn't really care much about. I mean, I love baseball and I love football, so it's kind of like deciding which kid you love the most or which is your favorite IPA, but I'm always bothered by the analysis. Simply looking at the different number of champions over a given time frame is like judging a pitcher or quarterback only by win-loss record.

So I decided to take a crack at it. While the ever accurate sniff test tells me that the NFL has more parity, I made a strong effort to stay intellectually honest and not let my suspicion guide the analysis.

But I must warn ye, there be math ahead.

Continue reading this post »

Through the first 33 years of my life, I have never witnessed a Super Bowl in which my favorite team was participating. As such, the build up to the game, for me, has always been more "casual interest" and less "intense anticipation."

Don't get me wrong. I love the Super Bowl. It's hard to beat any day where you can just assume a party and which revolves around a (hopefully) great football game featuring the best two teams of the year. It's been even better when you consider that we're on a four year stretch of fantastic games.

Still, not having had a horse in the race, I've never really bought into the hype machine that precedes the event.

Somehow, though, the fact that there is still football to anticipate is comforting, and every year on the Monday following the Super Bowl, I'm struck with disappointment (and a hangover) as I realize that there are now six barren months before training camp and more football.

This year is no different. While all the sports shows and websites are awash with coverage, my brain cannot find a way to care deeply about whether or not Eli Manning is "elite", what this game might mean for the legacy of either quarterback, or about the future of Peyton Manning (wait...he's not playing?!).

As my buddy said the other day, my mind wanders where it wants, so I thought that I'd share some of those wanderings (most, but not all, of which are football-related) with the BRB faithful.

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When I was a kid, I swore that when I grew up, I was going to be the starting shortstop for the Houston Astros. There was really no arguing the point with me, never mind that I was among the smallest kids in my elementary school. It wasn't even a matter of what I wanted to be. In my mind this was an irrefutable fact.

As I reached the wise old years of middle school, realization was starting to settle in that I was probably just not good enough for the majors. Fortunately, though, I now knew that after I made my first billion by the age of 30, I would at least own the team, so I could practice with the players, and still get to play here and there before settling into my suite with my supermodel wife.

Other items I've infamously (and wrongly) predicted are that the Oilers would win the 1994 Super Bowl, that I could drink 10 beers in an hour without puking, and that I would hit it with that girl at the end of the bar.

It's safe to say that I've never really been that good at predicting stuff. I know this. I understand this. I also don't care.

Earlier this season, I crafted this post predicting what would happen during the 2011 season. Armed with the aforementioned data, we should have known that it would have taken a minor miracle for any of these to turn out, but just for grins, let's see how I did.

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Rivers' exquisitely crafted note of gratitude to Wade Phillips gave us an idea. For the next several days, we'll periodically be posting entries thanking various people who had a hand in making the Texans' 2011 season as enjoyable as it was. The season's over, which blows, but there's a lot to appreciate, and it's a loooooong offseason, so let's do take a minute to say thank you.

Gary, I would like to start this thank you note with an apology.

I was one of those that called for you to be fired last year. I questioned your sanity when you allowed Frank Bush to continue to stand on your sideline. I called you out when you stopped feeding Arian Foster, when you mismanaged the clock, and when you threw unfounded challenge flags.

While I always respected your ability to gain the trust of your players, I did not believe that you were the coach that would ultimately take this team to the promised land.

And these are all ultimately the reasons that I owe you a heartfelt thanks.

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My first job was a summer job working for my dad in his office. He was the CFO for a home health company and I was doing data entry with manual timecards. I remember I caught a guy who was falsifying his time card and my dad bought me something or another as a reward.

My first baseball game was at the Astrodome. Nolan Ryan was pitching and they still had that crazy scoreboard which, as a 5 year old, I thought was the greatest thing in the history of mankind.

My first kiss was with this girl with long, curly hair. She was smoking hot. My first of other things with women shall remain classified for the sake of blog decency.

My first live playoff game was at the old Miami Arena where the Heat played the Atlanta Hawks. The Heat were massive underdogs, not yet the most hated team in sports, and lost.

My first time getting drunk is a lost memory, but my first hangover resulted in me swearing I would never drink again.

My first time breaking a real promise to myself was only a few days after my first hangover.

We always (or almost always) remember our first. Second events may be better or more rewarding, but they are rarely more memorable. Barring some miraculous event in this Sunday's game, we will not spend our waning years spinning tales to our grandchildren about the day the Texans played the Ravens in the divisional round.

If the Texans win, then the AFC Championship game will immediately be more important and if the Texans lose, the Cincinnati game will always be more memorable.

And that's the way it should be.

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On Sunday afternoon, I watched the Texans beat up on the Bengals to win their first playoff game in history.

It's not that I didn't know what happened or that I missed the game on Saturday, but I had watched the game live with a few friends at this fantastic place called World of Beer -- the type of place with 50 beers on tap and a few hundred more in bottles, but that doesn't carry Bud Light -- and, while the thrill of victory was still fresh in my mind, the exact details of how that victory was accomplished were, well, fuzzy.

See, I'm the type of guy who, when completely sober, has a really hard time remembering details from a day or two before. I'm like the guy from Memento, only with a boring desk job and spreadsheets in place of tattoos. So, when something as momentous as that game occurs while I've had a few, it's useful to be able to retrace the steps that led to victory.

Now with a game coming up against Baltimore, I'm scraping my brain to try and remember what happened three months ago. No chance.

Fortunately, these here interwebs contain much of the detail that I'm looking for.

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On January 16, 1994, the Houston Oilers hosted the Joe Montana led Kansas City Chiefs for a divisional playoff game in the Astrodome. The Oilers went on to lose that game 28-20 and thus began a series of events that would lead to Bud Adams ripping the team from the city that had loved it for 36 years.

6,565 days later, the city of Houston will see its next playoff game as the Cincinnati Bengals visit Reliant Stadium in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

That's a long time to wait.

I was a freshman in high school when that last Oilers playoff game was played. A lot has happened in my life since then. I graduated high school, obtained an engineering degree, developed a love for beer, traveled the world, climbed Mt. Kilimanjaro, discovered some of the majestic secrets of the internet, swam with sharks in Australia, stared down a wild hippo in the Serengeti, obtained an MBA, went sky diving and bungee jumping in New Zealand (in the same day), learned to homebrew, walked along the great wall of China, was introduced to the world of blogging, hiked the Inca trail in Peru, gained weight, lost weight, got married, gained weight again, had a child, lost weight again, and did/saw a bunch of things that I can't quite mention here lest I ban myself.

Let's just hope that the time span between the next two playoff games played by a Houston team only includes recovering from a hangover and trying to look busy at work.

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As I mentioned in my last post, I'm currently out in Utah on a ski vacation. So far, we've had a lot of challenges on this trip. My wife fractured her leg on a fall on the first day (it looked so innocent too, but she just landed wrong) and we've been witness to one of the driest and warmest Decembers in recorded history. Still, we've had a great time, drank lots of craft brew, and enjoyed ourselves.

It's a lot like the Texans season.

With only a single, meaningless game against the BE-SFs remaining, the Texans will wrap up the most successful regular season in team history and dive into the what will undoubtedly be the most successful post-season in team history.

Even with a season that includes a post-season berth and the AFC South title, the BRB motto of "the roller coaster that is Texans fandom" still applies.

While I admittedly don't follow other teams as closely as I do the Texans, I have a hard time recalling a team that has had to overcome so many injuries to their key players as they move into the playoffs. Even the 2010 Packers, who so many people like to recall, were able to overcome their injuries because their leader and quarterback remained on the field.

Still, the purpose here is not to seek sympathy, but rather to look back on the season and reflect on the challenges this team was able to overcome.

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It's been a few days now since that embarrassment in Indianapolis.

We're dead in the heart of the holiday season, many games have since passed, and with any luck, you've since drunken yourself into multiple stupors.

As for me, I'm drafting this from 30,000 feet on my way to Park City, Utah for a week long ski trip (though I will maintain my BRBing duties - as for whether that's good or bad news, I'll let you decide).

If the pain hasn't subsided by now, it will soon. With any luck, your immediate anger has subsided and you're now viewing the disasters of the past two weeks through a more rational lens.

I've spent some time away from BRB recently in most part because of my family holiday duties, but also partially because of the fear of saying something inappropriate. See, I have what professionals sometimes refer to as a bit of a fiery temper, and like many others, I've been known to direct vitriol in the wrong direction in the heat of the moment.

As such, I've learned to contain myself when angry and reserve my judgment until I've had a chance to properly analyze the situation. I've honed this skill through years of working with numerous idiots and the desire to maintain my Facebook status as "employed."

So in the last few days I've identified the exact direction to aim my anger and I've decided to share this analysis with the BRB community. Consider it the GPS for Texans fury.

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Last week, I wrote the following:

Ben Tate has four fumbles on the season in 154 touches, or one every 38.5 touches. Arian Foster has three fumbles in 284 touches, or one every 94.7 touches (and that includes the WTF fumble from Sunday -- otherwise it would be one every 142 touches). For everyone clamoring for Tate to take over for Foster because of his higher yards-per-carry stat, keep that in mind.

On Sunday, Arian Foster proceeded to fumble on the second play of the game, making me look like a jackass.

I don't even own him in Fantasy!

Then on Monday, I start seeing guys such as Paul Kuharsky talking about Foster's "sudden propensity to fumble."

All this after Foster was named to the USA Football All-Fundamental team for following blocks and ball security.

So what gives? Should Foster's new sponsor be Bananas Foster Butter (which sounds kind of gross)?

Continue reading this post »

When the Texans announced that Wade Phillips would be missing a few weeks for a medical procedure, Texans fans were asking themselves what they did to deserve such terrible luck.

Everything started in the preseason when Arian Foster pulled a hammy. Little did we know that this was only the start of an injury snowball that would take out some of the most important players to ever wear a Texans uniform. When the snowball finally got big enough, it claimed its first coach.

Most would play this off as simple bad luck, but you, the wonderful readers of BRB, deserve better. You deserve an investigative report that includes a comprehensive statistical analysis comparing the frequency of various injury types in pre and post lockout seasons.

As a dedicated writer for BRB, I, for one, hope you find such an analysis.

In the meantime, let's see if we're cursed.

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According to Advanced NFL Stats, with three minutes to play, and the Bengals holding the ball, the Texans had a mere 13% probability of winning the game.

Around the same time (with about four and a half minutes left in that game), the Titans had a 74% chance of losing.

That means that around that time, the probability of both occurring and the Texans becoming the the AFC South champions was a mere 9.6%.

Yet somehow, T.J. Yates managed to morph into John Elway for the final few minutes and the Texans are division champs and headed to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

Raise your hands if you saw that coming.

Liar.

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Normally at this point of a post (I refer to it as "the beginning"... it's a working title), I tend to put some snappy entry that most likely has no reference to football, but instead is some seemingly irrelevant snapshot of my life that I'll somehow tie to the game.

Today, however, I'm going to introduce you, the reader, to something my wife likes to refer to as "every f*#%ing day of my life." In other words, I'm going to ramble. Perhaps pointlessly, perhaps not. We'll see.

Why? Well, I'd like to say it's because I have some interesting insight into the performance of T.J. Yates or a slick analysis of the upcoming game against the Bengals that I'm going to deliver in a humorous manner, but the truth is I've got nothing better.

There may or may not be something coherent in the upcoming words -- I mean, there may or may not be an actual tooth in Chris Johnson's mouth -- but the point is that as of right now, you and I have about the same idea as to where this is going.

And isn't that really what matters?

No. The answer is "no".

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I spent the majority of the past week on a business trip in Boston. Inevitably, when on a business trip, one gets involved in extensive small talk. You talk about your family, your background, your pets, and your hobbies, but the conversation will always evolve towards sports.

So on multiple occasions this week, I've had some iteration of the following exchange:

Me: I'm a Texans fan.

Boston guy: Aw man, so what's up with Shahb?

Me: Well, it sucks.

Boston guy: Yah and now Leinaht too.

Me: Yeah, still sucks.

Boston guy: So who's stahting fo yah now?

Me: T.J. Yates

Boston guy: Well, we did pretty well with Tahm a few yeas back.

Me: I hate you right now

Boston guy: Ah man, Bobby F*@%in' Valentine!

Me: You're not even listening anymore.

Boston guy: BOBBY F*@%IN' VALENTINE!

I'm heading back to Boston next week, and I don't really feel like doing this again, so I decided to put together a quick FAQ regarding the current state of Texans fanhood for those interested.

Or not.

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Has there ever been a less satisfying victory in Texans' history?  The Texans are 8-3, with a two game lead in the division.  They are 4-0 in division play, boast the greatest defense in team history, a potent running game, an incredible receiving corps, and are in line to host a playoff game for the first time in team history.

Yet for some reason, I have that same Monday morning feeling that I do after a loss.  Oh yeah, it's probably because of that quarterback mess.

While it's true that any player can get hurt at any time, I never though that the Matt Leinart experience was going to last just two freaking quarters.  Now we're facing a situation where T.J. Yates will be leading your Houston Texans to the playoffs. 

If I believed in a higher power that cared enough to influence football games, I'd seriously be questioning what the hell Texans fans did to piss him/her/it off.  Is it possible that Bud Adams really did sell his soul to the devil and part of the deal is the never ending suffering of Texans fans?  Did Bob McNair dig up the remains of an ancient Native American chieftain to install a goal post?  Did Gary Kubiak steal a battle red ruby from Tutankhamen's tomb?

Well, I can't answer those questions, but let's take a quick look back at what happened yesterday and remind ourselves that the Texans did, in fact, win.

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Twas the week of Thanksgiving and all through the league,

Teams were struggling with injuries and fighting fatigue.

The Texans return and place their bull's eye,

On the Jacksonville Jaguars -- a second straight bye.

But fans can look forward and count all the reasons,

To finally believe at this point in the season.

With six games to go, our great team's sitting pretty,

For bringing the playoffs to the Bayou City.

The odds were improved with the Titans' last dump,

Let's look at scenarios after the jump.

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Author's note:  I began this analysis prior to Matt Schaub getting injured as a way to look at both his perceived and statistical value.  I've since altered it slightly to look at what we're missing from Schaub and what we need from Matt Leinart.  I also decided to keep the caption and title because they made me laugh, and that's really the most important thing.

When not writing about the Texans or getting/being blindingly drunk, I work in the field of Six Sigma and Continuous Improvement.  What that means is that I'm kind of an internal consultant that goes from department to department within our company, and helps them become more efficient (remember the efficiency experts from Office Space?  I'm that guy). 

Part of this job includes taking metrics and statistics from other departments, studying them, and making a determination on what's going right and what's going wrong.  One of the key things that I look for is variation within the data.  A metric may have a good average, but if it has a lot of variation, people will feel that something is wrong.  That "feeling" is what causes people to complain, and thus causes me to be called in.  You'd be amazed at the arguments I get when someone complains about an area only to have the departmental manager say something along the lines of, "But our average shows we're doing good" (sound familiar?).  In this business, variation equals pain. 

Furthermore, it's important for me to be as much of an outsider as possible because it allows me to be as objective as possible.

With both of these things in mind, I'd like to discuss Matt Schaub.  There are some out there who have the opinion that Matt Schaub is overrated and an unreliable quarterback.  These opinions on Schaub stem from his extreme and emotional moments in close games, such as the game-ending interceptions against Oakland or Baltimore (last year).  On the other hand, his statistics show him to be a quality quarterback.  So I decided to start looking at Schaub's performances in close games this year.

I originally planned to release this during the bye week since it would be the time when we could be the most objective.  With the recent news of Schaub's injury, however, and Matt Leinart's ascension to the starting lineup, we should look at this not from the perspective of "how has Schaub played' but rather from the perspective of "how much do we need to rely on Leinart?"

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This past weekend, a buddy of mine completed the Florida Ironman Triathlon.  For those unfamiliar with an ironman, it's a 2.4 mile swim, 112 mile bike, and then a full 26.2 mile marathon.  All in one day.  Without breaks.

Personally, I struggle to understand the internal discussion that one must have with one's self in order to decide to partake in such an event, though I figure it must go something like this:

"You know, it would be cool to do an ironman."

"By cool, do you mean 'stupid'?"

"No, think about it.  Imagine being able to say that we completed an ironman.  Regardless of whatever happens in life, we will always be able to call ourselves an ironman."

"Ozzy Osbourne calls himself an ironman too, but that doesn't mean we should eat a bat."

"Come on, it'll be fun!"

"No, it won't."

"But we could subject ourselves to months of intense, painful training in order to spend a day exploring all nine levels of hell.  Plus, we'll get a t-shirt."

"Ok, I'm in."

Still, I have to give my man superb credit for completing something so difficult.  It really is an accomplishment that can never be taken away from him, and he should be forever proud.

None of this has anything to do with football (except that he is a Bucs fan, so his pain will actually extend another weekend), but I felt it was worth hijacking my own post to give him props.

So let's take a look at where the Texans rank in various statistics.

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While the first half of the 2011 season has had its shares of ups and downs, when compared to seasons past, I'd say its been pretty relaxing.  Sure, there was the gut-wrenching loss to Oakland, the fourth quarter meltdown against New Orleans, and the completely uninspiring outing at Baltimore, but there has been nothing as brutal as the Q-Tip or Rosencopter.  I mean, the Oakland loss doesn't even have a nickname.

The team sits here at the midway point with a 5-3 record, a 3-0 record in the division, and alone at the top of the AFC South.  Regardless of how you feel about the first half performance, I'd have to imagine that most of us would have happily accepted that outcome were it offered in August.

Now as we dive into the deep end of the season, let's take a moment to see what lies ahead.

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Even though I don't remotely believe in most superstitions, I'm always pretty aware of them.  I love to walk just short of the path of a black cat, I willingly open umbrellas indoors, and I always talk about a no-hitter as it's unfolding.

What can I say?  I'm that guy. 

I just can't believe that any action I take in the comfort of my own home could possibly have any impact on the outcome of a game that may or may not be happening within a thousand miles of me. 

Setting aside any religious views, let's pretend we lived in a world where there was complete agreement in the existence of some higher power that manages and controls all activities in the world.  The complexities of such a job would be staggering, and all the interactions would have to constantly be manipulated.  I would have to believe that linking the activities of one drunk guy to the actions of 53 guys in another state would fall extremely low on said deity's honey-do list (and the type of thing that would cause said deity's wife to totally hold out on him if he did this over say, weeding the Elysian Fields).

Furthermore, if we assume that there is at least one fan of another team with similar views, there would inevitably come a time where both of us simultaneously jinxed opposing teams, causing the universe to explode.

So, even though it's only Week 8, let's flick a virtual finger at superstition and talk about playoff scenarios.  If this makes you uncomfortable, I recommend against jumping.

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I love beer. 

In fact, I think if I were to list the things I love in this world, the top three would be family, beer, and getting caught in the rain football.  We won't discuss the order, because I don't want to upset the family, beer, or football.

The combination of beer and football is obviously a beautiful thing but sometimes it could be better intertwined.  So I present you the beer equivalent of various members of the AFC South.

I apologize in advance for the lack of Shiner in here, but to be honest, it's not available much where I live, so I'm not as familiar as I would like to be.  With that in mind, I tried to keep this to brews that are available nationally -- at least I think they are. 

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Last weekend I went to the Disney Food and Wine festival at Epcot with my family.  They set up a bunch of tents that represent different countries and for a few bucks, you can buy some small plates of food from each country along with some wine (or beer -- there's actually a ton of beer). 

This has become a bit of a family tradition for us as we love both food and wine (and beer).  Our approach is to skip lunch and dinner and pretty much spend the day sharing the various dishes while we slowly, but steadily, get blindingly drunk.

This year, however, was a bit different.  An unnamed tropical wave passed through central Florida and dumped over 10 inches of rain.  As you can imagine, this put quite the damper on the festivities.  The majority of our group, decided to call it a day around 1:00, leaving my dad and I as the only ones to say, "Screw it, I don't care if it's raining, I want to drink." 

After everyone left, my dad and I had a great time and were able to successfully continue the tradition of getting wasted at Disney.  As the night progressed we joked that the two of us were better suited to handle the horrible conditions since we've both done some mentally grueling activities, such as mountain climbing, where you have to persevere in difficult conditions in order to achieve a goal (and seeing as this involved beer and talking animals, it was far easier).

Of course, the more likely explanation is that as a Texans fan, being miserable and looking for booze is just part of the normal weekend routine.

After three painful losses in the past four weeks, those looking for answers from the Texans' head coach were left with nothing but more questions.  According to standard operating procedure, Kubiak successfully navigated a minefield of softball questions without providing even the slightest insight.  So let's fisk the crap out of it.

Here's hoping my boss doesn't notice if I slip a little liquor into my coffee.

Continue reading this post »

I thought about writing a summary of the game.  I thought about writing about that last play.  I thought about writing that once Schaub left the pocket he had to try to make a play because there was no guarantee that he would have enough time for a second attempt (remember, he doesn't have the luxury of looking at the clock during the play).  I thought about writing that for the entire game, it looked like Jacoby Jones was just not helping his quarterback and how he was drifting away from the play and not getting open.  I thought about writing that the Texans still managed a really good pass rush after Mario went out. 

But then I started to read the comments here on BRB.  I agreed with some, disagreed with others, got mad at a few, and nodded emphatically at others.  Then I realized that the last thing Texans fans needed is another analysis as to why we had to witness another painful loss.

Instead, in an effort to ease the pain a little and because I have nothing but love for our loyal readers, here are ten things to raise the spirits of Texans fans.

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If statistics were a person, I'd feel really bad for them.  They'd be the weird kid in the corner who knows more than anyone else, but is constantly misunderstood.

All the other numbers would make fun of statistics and steal their lunch money.  They'd grow up and constantly be misquoted and getting in trouble, but they're too quiet to be able to stand up for themselves.  Everybody thinks they're a bunch of liars. 

Their position is not helped by the fact that they are completely and totally unemotional, and all the girls think they're weird. 

The problem with statistics, though, isn't that they're liars.  All they do is calculate numbers, but those numbers are often misinterpreted.  The biggest misinterpretation is that any single statistic can tell a complete story.  It often (read:  always) takes multiple stats to truly understand what's going on.

This is especially true when it comes to football.  No single stat can give a true understanding of who's better, who had the biggest contribution, or how to predict future performance. As such, stats continue to be branded with the scarlet number.

But in the past few years, stats have finally started getting their due.  Everybody knows about Football Outsiders and the fine work being done there (shout out to Rivers!) but there are others, and one that I'm a big fan of is Advanced NFL Stats. 

The founder of Advanced NFL Stats is Brian Burke, and he was kind enough to answer a few questions I had regarding his results.  Before you hit the jump, though, let's all thank Brian by jumping over to his site and clicking on the ads repeatedly.

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I re-watched the game last night and in an effort to provide you with an honest and fair analysis, I decided to watch it through the eyes of a Steelers fan. 

Here goes.

The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers took on the Texas team this past Sunday.  The Steelers dominated play through all five quarters and would have won the game, but for a few bad plays that allowed the Texans horrible players to accidentally score. 

The Texans didn't actually outscore the Steelers, though.  See, the Steelers have never actually been scored upon by another team, but have had points put up against them because the referees haven't given us enough calls and because Roger Goodell is a communist.

I know all this because I've been a Steelers fan ever since I first saw that Head and Shoulders commercial.  I may live in Northern California and maybe I'm not 100% sure what part of Kentucky Pittsburgh is in, but I am in fact, a die hard fan.

Now, somebody get me a chamois!

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