
Vegas Ace
Mar 07, 2008 May 22, 2012 1 348
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Sports writer Lowell Cohn misunderstanding of "Moneyball"
In his Friday column in the Press Democrat, Cohn uncharacteristically praises the A's as a possible contender with a top young pitching staff. Then in his Saturday column (http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20110401/NEWS/110409923/1055/SPORTS09?Title=Time-for-A-s-to-show-they-matter), he throws them under the bus after one loss due to defensive errors notwithstanding the fact that his beloved Giants have already lost two games due to fielding miscues. In his column, as usual, he takes potshots at Beane and "Moneyball". If anyone is interested in posting a retort to Lowell Cohn's blog, your comments can be posted on his blog at http://cohn.blogs.pressdemocrat.com/13279/lowells-column-on-as-opener/comment-page-1/?tc=ar.
Today I posted the following response on his blog: " In his last two columns, Cohn has displayed his “Jekyll & Hyde” personality by expressing on Friday his “glass half full” optimism that the A’s have the talent to contend this year due to the superior pitching, strong defense & upgraded offense and then reverting to his typical role of throwing them under the bus in his Saturday column after they lost one game due to an uncharacteristic excess of defensive miscues.
In lieu of dumping on Billy Beane for virtually every managerial decision as in the past, Cohn offered Beane a backhanded compliment by praising him for “dumping Moneyball” which once again confirms how little Cohn understands about the “Moneyball” concepts. The underlying theme so colorfully articulated by the brilliant author, Michael Lewis, in his now legendary “Moneyball” book, is how the effective use of statistical analysis and arbitrage techniques can be applied by baseball managers in acquiring undervalued talent in exchange for overvalued talent. Lewis chose the Oakland A’s for his book as an example of a small market team that effectively applied these concepts in managing to win about as many games over a five year period as the NY Yankees, a team with a virtually unlimited budget. Over the years Cohn has roundly criticized Beane for trading away overvalued stars like Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, etc. which turned out to be an effective rebuilding strategy for a small budget team in enabling the A’s to acquire young pitching stars like Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, etc. at an affordable price.
Notwithstanding Cohn’s apparent misunderstanding and/or disdain of “Moneyball” strategies, more knowledgeable baseball experts including the Boston Red Sox ownership hold such methods in high regard as evidenced by their unsuccessful attempt to hire away Billy Beane from the A’s as their GM for a lucrative offer which he rejected due to his loyalty to the A’s and the Bay Area. Nevertheless, determined to apply the “Moneyball” concepts in an unrelenting pursuit of their first World Series since 1918, the Red Sox hired new management team including Bill James, baseball’s statistical genius praised in Lewis’ “Moneyball” book, which led to their first World Series victory in 2004 after an 84 year wait. Now that we in the Bay Area are proud that the San Francisco Giants have finally achieved their first World Series victory, it is rather shortsighted to immediately conclude that the Giants will be perennial champs and/or that the A’s are now irrelevant despite have won 4 World Series victories since arriving in Oakland including a 3 in a row – a feat only accomplished in recent history by the Yankees.
As for the A’s being “world class complainers”, that comment once again highlights Cohn’s ingrained negative attitude about the A’s ownership/management. To the more objective observer, it appears that the ownership has been patiently waiting for a couple of years for Commissioner Selig to finally make a decision about allowing the A’s to build a new stadium in a location that will support an expanded budget & fan base. Ask yourself how would the Giants be doing in the Oakland Coliseum with half the salary budget? Meanwhile Cohn’s beloved Giants have already lost their first two games of the season due to precisely the same issue – fielding errors. It is a long season and far too early for either fans or a professional sports commentator to draw firm conclusions about a team’s future performance during a 162 game baseball season."
by Phil
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