I'll start off by admitting that this post may not be totally convincing to some people because there's no real data in it. I'm not showing the numbers for any team, or goalie, or anything, but rather trying to explain why CNS has discovered that all the big hockey stats guys -- Messrs. Desjardins, Ferrari, Zona, etc. -- say the same thing: that shot quality has no discernible effect on shooting percentage (or save percentage, which is exactly the opposite of shooting percentage).

It's not exactly an intuitive result. After all, shouldn't a better shot go in more often? And if you have more better shots, shouldn't more of them go in? This isn't made any easier by the fact that, over at Arctic Ice Hockey (formerly known as Behind The Net), they have a post that shows that shooting percentage really does go up as you get closer to the net!

In the end, what the statisticians conclude seems to really rile people up. "Luck is a bigger factor than shot quality." What the heck does that mean? If you claim to be a stats guy, why are you bringing luck into the equation?

Continue reading this post »

Author's Note:  This post was written in a hurry, so it'll be more dry than my past stats posts.  Please bear with me -- my series prediction comes at the end but my objective was to communicate some statistical concepts to: a) help everyone put the excellent work done by others here (CNS, TMFF, Flavius to name a few) into context and b) make it possible to look at work done elsewhere with a critical eye.  After all, stats are just as often misleading as they are insightful, so it's nice to know how to tell one from the other.

The story behind this FanPost is a long one.  Hopefully the post itself doesn't end up being that long, though if you're familiar with my writing, you just know it will.  Sorry.

It all started a couple weeks ago when the 'Hawks were fighting through the blob, people were jumping off the ledge, and in an attempt to look at the situation objectively, TMFF and then McClure broke out the Chicago Blackhawks page on SportsClubStats.  It was a really good-looking website that I turned around and criticized.

However, it felt dirty to criticize something without backing it up, so let me start by explaining my two main concerns: regression to the mean and predictive ability.

Continue reading this post »

With Coach Q and his 'stache at the helm, we're no longer surprised by line combinations that last as long as Brett Favre's retirement the French in war lukewarm milk the lucky freshman the night of homecoming a Hawks lead these days (ugh).  But with all the new faces, there isn't enough room on the big league squad and we now face the reality of the I-Pass Shuffle (no, it's not a rumored Apple product) becoming a weekly occurrence.

Cue the recent stretch of stinky stretch of games, book-ended by home losses to Edmonton (for the love of Hossa!), and you may find yourself reaching for a security blanket.  Like, for instance, the one that our beloved Q turns to -- remember my line generator from last year?

It's now been updated -- and may I now present, Coach Q's Line-O-Matic for the 2010-2011 season (click to activate):

In honor of the I-Pass Shuffle (maybe we need to turn this into a dance), there's an extra little feature included at the bottom -- but like all good things Josh Mora, you're going to have to wait until you click on the link to see it.  Bahaha.

If nothing else, hopefully this keeps you occupied enough to avoid tearing your hair out subjecting yourself to something so painful that only McClure could describe, waiting for the next game Hawks to break out of their funk.  And if it takes a little line shuffling from this little magic box, well, don't tell me the Q-Stache didn't have something to do with it.

It's long overdue, but before the puck drops for the 2010-2011 Chicago Blackhawks season, it's time to introduce what's been brewing in my secret lab.  And by secret lab, I really mean a dark, messy apartment littered with empty Cherry Coke cans -- the aftermath of last night.  The things I do for you people...

The Making of a New Stats Model

Author's Note:  Feel free to skip to the part after the jump -- I'm just rambling here to make myself feel like I've done something big.  Which I haven't.

Run away!!!

You may or may not have read my last stats post, VerStats Kitchen - Prologue: Cooking with Numbers.  That was an ambitious plan to use all sorts of statistical geekery to try to distill a set of meaningful and versatile statistics.  I've stuck with it for the most part, except I've simplified the execution.  Translation: I'm busy lazy.

I kept the idea of using a set of five numbers to try to shed more light than existing hockey statistics do.  That was really for the cool graph.  But, to try to keep everyone happy, my goal was to adhere to a few basic principles:

• Be descriptive, not predictive:  I'm not trying to make a judgment about Crosby being better than Ovie, and I'm not trying to explain why Detroit is such an awful place.  I'll crunch the numbers give other people better tools with which to make that call.
  
• Shoot for the eye test, not statistical optima:  This goes hand-in-hand with the first one.  There's plenty of quarterback rating or PECOTA style statistics out there, and we don't need more of those because they don't tell us what's happening in the game.
• Keep it simple:  I'm hoping even people who don't like statistics could point to these and find them more useful to explain why they think something than the existing stats.  A convoluted formulation would be counterproductive.
• Make it versatile:  On the other hand, if I can use these numbers to describe not just games but also break them down by period, player, and so on, they would make a nice supplement to our oh-so-familiar box scores.
• Capture volume and efficiency:  Okay, this is partly so I can keep the VER acronym alive after the departure of Kris Versteeg, but this is actually a big one.  Some statistics will tell you how well a player did by giving you a rate.  Others will just give you a total, which can tell you something about a player's overall contribution.  Somehow I want to be able to do both.

So, as I set about making all this, I got bogged down -- I was learning Python, a language that's completely new to me, and trying to parse all 1,225 regular season games' worth of play-by-play files so I could fill a database and start using it to do some fun statistical wizardry.

That plan went south really quickly.  I got busy, my code kept breaking, and 'lo and behold it was after running it overnight on Monday and Tuesday that I got the data in (my database is stored in a 80 megabyte file, if anyone wants it).  Then I realized that there was no way to come up with a whole stats model in a day.  So I decided on a new plan.

Continue reading this post »

Author's Note:  If you don't like stats, don't worry -- the only numbers in this article are in two graphics that are there for illustrative purposes only.

Who's hungry?  If you find your hockey stomach growling over the offseason, no doubt you'll be dropping by SCH to indulge in whatever our fine writers and commenters have to dish up this summer.

Unfortunately, this year, we fans of the Chicago Blackhawks are faced with the Capocalypse.  While I'm sure we'd all love to just revel in our happiness, undoubtedly much of the discussion will revolve around the salary cap and players to be moved or stashed.  Since I'm no cap expert, and wanted to create a safe haven for myself away from all the cap talk, I decided to start an offseason stats project (with community involvement, I hope!).

Cooking with Numbers

My goal in all this is to address the fundamental problem with hockey stats: they don't tell the whole story about what is happening on the ice (actually, I read an interesting article this morning about similar issues with soccer).  Unlike baseball -- and most other sports, for that matter -- hockey is very difficult to break down into discrete plays or possessions.  So much gets lost in the flow.

I want to create a set of statistics that does two things.  First, I want it to be simple; I prefer an intuitive statistic to something that tries to roll everything up into one number, like GVT.  If you have to, just use multiple numbers.  Second, I want it to be versatile; something that can be descriptive for a team, a line, or a player -- and for a season, series, or game (or even a period).

To address the first -- simplicity -- I'm making this cooking analogy.  Since I started writing FanPosts, I've had a tendency to tie in food.  While I can't make any promises, I'm hoping that while the derivation of my stats may be complex, the numbers themselves should be easy to calculate.  Nothing more than adding some numbers that are each multiplied by some weights.  Just like recipes, with ingredients and quantities.

As for the second... well, the devil's in the details.  As long as they are granular enough (the stats aren't rare), this should be possible.  The statistics should be purely descriptive on their own, so that we can draw our own conclusions based on game situation, rather than embedding them in the numbers.  Case in point: instead of adjusting for being down a goal, why not try to figure out whether a team is doing a good enough job "playing defensively?"

Lots of tweaking may be necessary, so this is why I'm posting this so early -- I want people to discuss.  Even if you only have a little nugget to contribute, as to how you think of hockey stats (or don't -- and why), I'd love to hear it.  Like Hammer Soup, this project is better off if the community pitches in.

Continue reading this post »

The three of us want to make sure that everyone anywhere can enjoy tomorrow night with their fellow Hawks fans, so I've moved this NYC call to the front page.  If there are others going on, please email me or Killion and we'll bump that to the front page too. -Sam

Given the nature of the situation, it's time for those of us marooned in rocking New York City to pull together for some Chicago Blackhawks solidarity.  Thanks to people who e-mailed me to remind me to post this; I'm going to lay down the bare bones for this and update it later, because it's late.

Game 6 at Philadelphia:  Wednesday 6/9/2010 @ 8 pm EDT

Proposed Meetup Location:  77 Warren (Sean Avery's bar), Warren St. b/w Greenwich St. and Broadway)

I'll be honest; I know next-to-nothing about this place, but it is a legit hockey bar so there won't be any competition with baseball.  it'snotsomuchmeasitisroenick and I hit up Jack Russell's Pub on the UES last time and they put the game w/audio on the big TVs, so that's another option as well (I feel like the SCF shouldn't be too hard a sell, we can get them to put it on in the back).

Other suggestions welcome; we've got a day and a half to decide.

Update:  We're going to try to meet up there at 7ish, to leave enough time to haul ourselves up to ESPN Zone if it looks bad for any reason.  See the comments for how to get my number if you need to get in touch with the peloton.

Author's Note:  I feel bad posting this and running the risk of kicking BigCSouthside's epic -- no, legendary -- video FanPost off the sidebar, so please refrain from rec'ing this until it naturally fades from view.  Thanks!

Stories aplenty!  A matchup between the #1 and #2 seeds that ended in a four game sweep that looked anything but -- will generate those.  Dustin Byfuglien continuing his dominance on the top line bogarting of huge goals.  Playing better on the road, or when they pretend they're on the road (with the help of Mario Kart).  The murine qualities of Dave Bolland.  The disappearing Sharks (click to enlarge your mind):

Discovery Channel sez: "Sharks Can Become Invisible!" o rly?

To be fair, this time it was not Patrick Marleau, not even Joe Thornton -- but rather Dany Heatley and surprisingly, the hot-and-now-cold Joe Pavelski with the disappearing act.

What do the stats have to say about this, you might ask?  Well, aside from being freaked out by glowing sharks, that is.  Well, how do we know unless we question them?  Mutual +/- isn't terribly important here, because our lines stayed relatively stable.  So instead, let's start with Head-to-Head +/-, which is a better name for the "Cross-Mutual +/-" I concocted in my last report.  I'll also tackle the Flyers in the second half.

Continue reading this post »

Some say... I never dump the puck, and that our line does a miserable job of shutting down Jumbo Joe.

Some say this, indeed.  That would be Derek Zona over at The Copper & Blue, who's been doing some wonderful work breaking down the scoring chances in every playoff game.  But, after this line's mind-infesting work against the Sedins in Round 2, implying that Dave Bolland (and by extension, Kris Versteeg and Andrew Ladd -- the lightning in a bottle captured by Coach Q's line generator) was more lucky than good against Joe Thornton & co. was, well, a little agitating to us Blackhawks fans.

Derek put up a head-to-head breakdown of these scoring chances in a more recent post.  Interestingly, his results showed much of the same; that our belovedly pesky third line wasn't doing much to "shut down" that top line of the Sharks -- the one they call HTML.  If anything, according to Mr. Zona, all it did was open up opportunities for Sharpie's line (not so much Tazer's) in limited head-to-head TOI.

Head-to-Head Scoring Chances for Games 1 and 2 (click for chances per 15 mins) Reproduced, admittedly without permission (I hope this is okay)

I trust Derek's judgment on the scoring chances.  This is a relatively objective form of eye test.  But not only does this lead us to question our own eyes, but also what the best way to measure the effectiveness of a checking line is.

If you really want to "question" your eyes, call me a coward.  Go ahead, try it.

Though I never did a post on Head-to-Head +/- (my new name for Cross-Mutual +/-; I'll explain in my next report) for the Vancouver series, those numbers don't jump out at anybody either.  Bolland was +2 facing Henrik but even against Daniel (who he got to totally lose it).  The line was negative against Burrows, who got bumped up to the top line for most of the second half of the series (there's no chart here, so don't look for it).

People generally acknowledge the effectiveness of our very own Davey B-Rat against the Sedins, though, so let's look at some numbers from the Sharks series to see if actually they kept things going, or if our third line success was a figment of our homerism-twinged minds (and media).

Continue reading this post »

Apologies -- I know it's not even Game 3 yet, but I won't be in town tomorrow and wanted to get this up so that people could see it.  I'm just reposting what I had before, but let's make this happen!

Game to Watch:  Game 4 vs. Sharks, Sun 5/23, 3 pm EDT

Tentative Location:  Jack Russell's Pub (2nd Ave. b/w 82nd and 83 St.) -- I don't actually know if this is any good, so please discuss

Other upcoming weekend games (schedule):

• Game 7 @ Sharks, Sat 5/29, time TBD (if necessary)
  

Potential locations:

• Blue Moon Mexican Cafe (UES, ahnfire suggested this, I think)
• Bailey's Corner Pub (UES, oneminuteremainingintheperiodoneminute did a FanPost on this a while back)
• Jack Russell's Pub (UES, has TVs in every booth -- got from this link about hockey bars in NYC)
• Warren 77 (Tribeca, Sean Avery’s bar via -BL-)
• Mudville 9 (downtown/Tribeca, last time I passed by it was closed, it might be gone)
• ESPN Zone? (Times Sq)

I don't know anything about hockey bars in this city so please, PLEASE suggest/discuss more in the comments; I'll add them to the page as needed, and put up a semi-official location if we can agree on anything.

I'm guessing audio is preferred; as for location, I've heard about guys from all over (UWS, Rockaway?, and TMFF is in CT), so let's try to find a good central location.

It looks like Mayor Daley has upped the ante with a second mayoral bet for this year's playoffs, this time with Mayor Chuck Reed of the City of San Jose.

As reported by the San Jose Mercury News, here's what's at stake --

San Jose

• waffles (Eggo -- really?!)
• burritos? (La Victoria Taqueria)
• meat? (Chiaramonte's Deli & Sausages)
• confections (Schurra's Candy, Greenlee's Bakery and Shuei-Do Manju Shop)
• booze (Joseph George Wines and Gordon Biersch Brewing Co.)

Chicago

Part 1 (via San Jose Mercury News)

• barbecue sauce (Robinson's Ribs)
• hot dogs and Polish sausages (Vienna Beef)
  
• tortillas and chips (Azteca Foods)
• large cheesecake (Eli's Cheesecake)
• candy (Ferrara Pan Candy)
• fortune cookies (Golden Dragon Fortune Cookies)
• pale ale and golden ale (Half Acre Brewery)

Part 2 (via Chicago Tribune)

• lamb chops and steaks (Harry Carray's)
• Italian beef (Al's Beef)
• burgers (Billy Goat Tavern)
• fried catfish, turkey legs and barbecued turkey tips (BJ's Market)

(also included is a floral arrangement from Illinois Specialty Cut Flowers, I hope nobody tries to eat that)

A fair bet?  We'll let your eye/tongue/tummy test decide.

Note:  These lists are probably incomplete... let me know if I left anything out.

Continue reading this post »

Well that was fun, wasn't it?  If not heart attack inducing.  So before we move on from genus Orcinus to superorder Selachimorpha (sweaters, not sushi), let's take some time to digest what we've had so far.

Mmmmm... barbeque sauce!

If you've been following my FanPosts, you should be familiar with my Mutual +/- statistic for tracking line/pairing chemistry:

• All you young stats geeks out there: "Mutual +/-"
• Between the Lines: First Round Mutual +/- Report

Of course, we all know how often our lines have been shuffled by Evil Genius Q, and perhaps this time for the better.  We got a bonafide chicken checking line that shut down the Sedins to go along with the emergence of Buff McNugget as Vancouver fans now must be having nightmares about.

Without further ado...

Continue reading this post »

Sorry for slacking off on this, but let's get all discussion on this under one roof.  This is for New York City (or Tri-State area, kinda, for TMFF) SCHers and anybody else who happens to be in the area.

I'll try to manage this and update it as necessary; only rec it if we actually figure something out.

Next Game:  Game 1 @ Sharks, Sun 5/16, 3 pm EDT

Proposed Location:  TBD

Other upcoming weekend games (schedule):

• Game 4 vs Sharks, Sun 5/23, 3 pm EDT
• Game 7 @ Sharks, Sat 5/29, time TBD (if necessary)
  

Other potential locations:

• Blue Moon Mexican Cafe (UES, ahnfire suggested this, I think)
• Bailey's Corner Pub (UES, oneminuteremainingintheperiodoneminute did a FanPost on this a while back)
• Jack Russell's Pub (UES, has TVs in every booth -- got from this link about hockey bars in NYC)
• Warren 77 (Tribeca, Sean Avery’s bar via -BL-)
• Mudville 9 (downtown/Tribeca, last time I passed by it was closed, it might be gone)
• ESPN Zone? (Times Sq)

I don't know anything about hockey bars in this city so please, PLEASE suggest/discuss more in the comments; I'll add them to the page as needed, and put up a semi-official location if we can agree on anything.

I'm guessing audio is preferred; as for location, I've heard about guys from all over (UWS, Rockaway?, and TMFF is in CT), so let's try to find a good central location.

Sorry for slacking off on this, but let's get all discussion on this under one roof.  This is for New York City (or Tri-State area, kinda, for TMFF) SCHers and anybody else who happens to be in the area.

I'll try to manage this and update it as necessary; only rec it if we actually figure something out.

Next Game:  Game 1 @ Sharks, Sun 5/16 (3 pm EDT via @PHTonNBC)

Proposed Location:  TBD

Other potential locations:

• Blue Moon Mexican Cafe (UES, ahnfire suggested this, I think)
• Bailey's Corner Pub (UES, oneminuteremainingintheperiodoneminute did a FanPost on this a while back)
• Jack Russell's Pub (UES, has TVs in every booth -- got from this link about hockey bars in NYC)
• Warren 77 (Tribeca, Sean Avery’s bar via -BL-)
• Mudville 9 (downtown/Tribeca, last time I passed by it was closed, it might be gone)
• ESPN Zone? (Times Sq)

I don't know anything about hockey bars in this city so please, PLEASE suggest/discuss more in the comments; I'll add them to the page as needed, and put up a semi-official location if we can agree on anything.

I'm guessing audio is preferred; as for location, I've heard about guys from all over (UWS, Rockaway?, and TMFF is in CT), so let's try to find a good central location.

Phew.  So we've survived Round 1 of the Joel Quenneville line scrambling carousel.  At the end of the regular season, we had a money line of Sharp-Toews-Hossa, also known as the "Hammer of the Gods," and a fourth line that had finally found some chemistry and was chipping in some offense to boot.

What happened?  After stumbling upon the wall that was the Nashville Predators blue line (and you might argue, our own, as far as clearing it was concerned), Coach Q jumbled, we mumbled (and moaned), and, well -- maybe it worked!

Bickell me Elmo!

How do we tell?  Well, we can use the stat I invented: Mutual +/-.  For those of you who don't remember that FanPost (and let's be honest -- who did?), Mutual +/- is just like regular plus-minus, except that it's calculated for each pair of players on the team.

The objective is to answer the question: how well did each player play with everybody else?  Well, let's take a look at the Blackhawks' Mutual +/- for the Round 1 against Nashville...

Continue reading this post »

WARNING:  Consumption of the statistics contained in the FanPost may lead to head asplosion.  Read at your own risk!

Welcome back for my second stats-based FanPost -- this time we're looking at the SOG (shots on goal) statistic, and other game-by-game statistics that may shed some light on, essentially, what wins hockey games.  After reading gmh's excellent and comprehensive summary of SOG for the regular season, the question came up --  how is it that the Blackhawks lose games in which they outshoot the opponent by 30+ shots?

Damn you, Hiller!

To answer this question I turned to NHL event summaries like this one, summed the numbers up for each game, and did my own home-baked stats work on them.  What follows is pretty heavy, so if you intend to sit through it, please put away all sharp objects immeeeeeeeeediately and pour yourself your beverage of choice.

(I apologize in advance for making this sound like you need a degree in statistics -- ask questions and I'll try to clarify and simplify)

Continue reading this post »

Motivation

A couple of things inspired this FanPost.  First, after making a line generator -- based on our perception that Coach Q jumbles lines hoping to catch lightning in a bottle -- I figured it would be nice to find out which players actually play best with each other.  Second, I was looking for yet another way to procrastinate and realized that NHL game reports like this one aren't hard to parse.

Actually, it's the other way around; I figured out how to write a program to read the reports, and this is just the first (read: easiest) thing that came to mind when brainstorming something statistic-ky to do.

Formulation and Results

To figure out who plays well with who, I made up a statistic called Mutual +/-.  Basically, it is the +/- (even-strength and shorthanded goals for minus against) when two players are both on the ice.  Calculating it is simply a matter of noting who is on the ice when a goal is scored and tallying +'s and -'s in a grid.

Continue reading this post »

It took me nearly two and a half decades, but after jumping on the 'Hawks bandwagon late last season, I've finally managed to make it to my very first live hockey game!  I thought it'd be cool to take some photos, but I'm really a novice at the whole thing -- I have an ancient camera, shaky hands, zero online photo site experience... and no idea how to take pictures of a hockey game.

I was way too caught up in the whole experience (AWESOME!) to get any pictures from other angles, of myself, the arena, or even the Red Devil.  But while I had to stand behind some people, I did make it to the pre-game skate, and snapped a few blurry pictures from our end of the ice.

Rather than just toss these in a random album somewhere, I figured I'd post them here and let you people make some sense out of these.  Go ahead and "rewrite" any of the captions to your liking.  We can call it a re-captioning contest.  Yeah. Put in some dialogue, or change it completely... whatever.

(1) "My Birthday Wish?  A Blackhawks Win and a Patrick Kane Goal!"

Continue reading this post »

Otherwise known as:

Coach Q's Deterministic Chaos Creator

(sorry, I couldn't paste the whole thing here... SBN wouldn't let me)

As Sam posted in his... um, post... today:

Coach Q has tried Kris Versteeg at center at least four or five times over the past two seasons.  Most of these experiments have lasted a period or two at most.  Why are we doing this again?  And why are we pairing him with Kane, who needs the puck?  What use will Kane be when he was to watch Steeger over stickhandle and put everyone offisides?  What. The. Fuck?

In conclusion, the implication clearly was that Q had invented something, namely the aforementioned... thing.  This is my attempt to clone it.

Instructions for use:

1. Click the button
2. Repeat

If anyone feels a need to add any of the following (or something else), give a shout below and either I do something if I'm not feeling lazy, or somebody else can shamelessly copy it.  It's pretty much open source.

• D men pairings
• Forcing centers to center
  
• No-scratch list
• Days of Our Offense writer robot

* Special thanks to ChicagoNativeSon for suggesting that "We need an online random line generator" and BigCSouthside... just because.

So some nice people over at The Copper & Blue have written an interesting piece on Dale Tallon, comparing the history of our not-too-distant past and the Oilers' current situation.  It covers most of the bases, though some of us here would disagree with some of the assessments, like giving him a C for his efforts for this team.

Personally I think it's a little too early to call Panda a "massive overpay" and any Chicago sports fan knows that the ability to draft good talent is in short supply in this city.  Not to mention Sharpie and VERSTEEG! being prime examples of highway robbery.  So why not give credit where it's due?

As a bandwagon fan (though hopefully learning quick!) my opinion isn't worth a crap (and I hope I'm not resurrecting a beaten to death topic or anything), but a caveman?  Really?  I think a serious rethinking of that choice of words is in order... 

 
So easy a caveman catfish can do it!