SB Nation User Blog: ViperLjs

Jim Thomas: Monroe the Likely Pick

ViperLjs — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 21:12:06 -0000

Thomas came on Bernie Miklasz's radio show today to discuss the draft, and revealed that there are indications coming from the organization that Monroe will be the pick. This corresponds with glowing comments made by Devaney in his assessment of Monroe.

I am one of the few who prefers Monroe to Curry; I'm consistently seeing doubts about his lateral mobility and ability to be a game changer at the MLB position.

The Rams absolutely cannot whiff on this pick, and historically OT's taken early in the first round have a high rate of success in the NFL. Additionally, Monroe is regarded as having a very high floor; he might be the most "bust-proof" player available in the draft.

Monroe's skill set fits with our new offensive philosophy as well, i.e. he is considered very adept at run blocking as well as pass protection :

(per nfldraftscout.com)

Compares To: WALTER JONES, Seattle -- Both players are blessed with excellent athleticism and agility, along with the quick feet to mirror speedy edge rushers. Monroe is a solid run blocker, plays on his feet with very good balance and has excellent body control. He has the strength to gain position when working in-line and creates and widens rush lanes. He is capable of staying on his feet and sustaining blocks, using his hand strength well to lock on and control his man. He competes until the whistle and plays with good aggression. His field vision and awareness are evident by his ability to pick up line games and blitzes. His body control lets him readjust and deliver crunching blocks in the second level. With his fluid body flexibility, he has no problem sinking his hips and anchoring to protect the pocket. By remaining healthy as a senior, he has the athletic ability and pedigree to be the first offensive lineman taken in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Scouts are divided over who is better between Monroe and Jason Smith, but I think at the No. 2 pick, Smith's lack of experience at the position makes him something of a project; he carries significantly more risk than does Monroe.

Nflhouse.com had this to say:

In my opinion, Monroe has the highest floor of any play in the draft, meaning that his worst case scenario is better than most other of the draft. He has the potential to become the next Jonathan Ogden or Tarik Glenn, but at worst could become an above average right tackle in the mold of a Jon Runyan. He deserves to be a Top 5 pick, and I really feel that he could be the best player to emerge from this draft, at least offensively.

Teams live and die with their offensive tackles; Monroe has the ability to be a very solid, and maybe elite, LT for years to come, and he is polished enough to step in immediately. Curry, while a great player in his own right, will struggle to make the same overall impact at MLB; it's simply much harder to do at that position.

Monroe, while he does have his weaknesses, deserves the No. 2 pick.

The Cubs Rotation: 3 Significant Questions

ViperLjs — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 23:05:28 -0000

I know this isn't our usual topic of conversation here at VEB, but I think it is interesting and illuminating to take a closer look at our chief division rival: the hated Cubs. The Cubs are the favorite in the NL Central, and possessed a very good rotation last year; however, like many teams they do come into the season with some significant questions.

1.Will Carlos Zambrano be healthy?

Carlos Zambrano missed a number of starts last season; He pitched 120 innings with a 2.84 ERA in the first half and 68 innings with a 5.80 ERA in the second half. The cause? Shoulder soreness and later, rotator-cuff tendinitis and inflammation.Given our experiences with Mulder and Carpenter, we are intimately acquainted with the fact that shoulder injuries can be devastating to even the best pitchers.
In an article for the Hardball Times, Carlos Gomez, the noted guru of pitching mechanics, notes in 2007 Zambrano seemed to be having shoulder issues:

"Zambrano has been asking for a lucrative contract extension. Considering his performance so far this year, his velocity loss and possible signs of arm trouble, the Cubs would be foolish to sign him to a long-term deal. Too many question marks there. I sincerely hope that what I'm seeing is not what I think I'm seeing."

Lo and behold, the very next season Zambrano goes down because of the shoulder. A steady decline of strikeouts can be noted in the past three seasons, another indicator of arm/shoulder problems (the following is K/9):

2006- 8.83
2007- 7.36
2008- 6.20

In his last 5 starts of the season, he pitched only 24.2 Innings, allowing 22 hits, 15 walks, and an ERA of 8.03. This is including the one good game he had in this stretch where he threw a complete game no-hitter; taking out that game, he threw a miniscule 15.2 innings in 4 starts and allowed 22 hits, 14 walks, and had 22 ER. Clearly he was not right in the entire second half, but his performance deteriorated as the half went on; this suggests a worsening condition.

Could Zambrano bounce back and be fine next season? Yes.

Will he?

It's impossible to know, but if I were a betting man I wouldn't bet on Zambrano pitching a full season next year. Shoulder injuries are simply too pervasive to be confident about his continuing success, which leads us into our next question:

2. Will Rich Harden Be healthy either?

Rich Harden is as good as anyone when healthy, but we all know the story about him; he has pitched only 219 innings in the past three seasons combined.

We know how injury prone he is, and then this comes out, courtesy of the Chicago Sun Times:

"But sources also confirmed Saturday that Harden has a tear in the joint, just severe enough that some players might seek surgery but slight enough to be in a range often treated effectively with a strengthening program, therapy and a well- managed work schedule.

That's more than the Cubs let on last fall, even after the revelation that Harden had a cortisone shot for rotator [cuff] tendinitis."

His peripherals all looked very good last season and showed no sign of decline, but how can anyone be confident that an injury that can sideline any pitcher won't sideline the king of the DL?

Much like Zambrano, there is no way to know how much this will affect him. I have to ask though: realistically, is anyone optimistic?
I wouldn't bet on Harden pitching a full season, either.

(As a sidenote, as you probably noticed, Harden was initially diagnosed with rotator-cuff tendinitis, the same condition that Zambrano was diagnosed with last season. This can often lead to a tear, as it did with Harden. A glimpse into Zambrano's future?)

3. How good will Ryan Dempster be?

Ryan Dempster pitched 5 seasons as a starter before last season. He posted ERA's of 4.71, 3.66, 4.94, 5.38, and 6.54. His career ERA is 4.55 in 1425 IP, and his career FIP is 4.41. Last season he had a 2.96 ERA, and a 3.41 FIP. As you can see, 2008 was by far his best season.

His peripherals also suggest that he had a great year that is outside his career norms:

                    2008             Career
K/9               8.14                7.54
BB/9            3.31                4.47
HR/9            0.61               0.96
BABIP         .288                .309 (20.1 LD% in 2008)
HR/FB         7.7%              9.9%

Every stat is better than his career numbers by a significant margin. Of special note to me are the drops in his walk and HR rates.

32 year-old mediocre starters that were converted into relievers and back into starters dont often turn into perennial Cy Young contenders. Given his peripherals and career numbers, all signs point to this being a career year for Dempster. I wouldn't expect him to continue at that level, and there's a good chance he regresses significantly.

(Seems that the Cubs disagree, as they fell into the Lohse trap: they awarded Dempster a 4-year, $51 Million contract for his great season. )

Conclusion

With Zambrano and Harden's shoulder issues, it's entirely possible that the Cubs will be without their 1 and 2 pitchers for a significant chunk, maybe most, of the season. Considering that their number 3 is due to regress quite a bit, their pitching situation doesn't look quite as rosy as some portray it. Ted Lilly is a good bet to be a solid innings-eater type, but even he has had mediocre FIP's the past couple seasons.

What does everyone think about the Cubs' rotation this year?

PrOPS and the '08 Cardinals

ViperLjs — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 07:41:32 -0000

How lucky were the Cardinals' hitters last year? There is a way to tell.

There is a stat that exists that shows a player's Predicted OPS, or "PrOPS." PrOPS is a stat referenced on Hardball Times that attempts to accurately gauge a player's performance without the "luck factor" of having balls fall in for hits or not. I don't see this stat referenced very often, and I'm not quite sure why. It seems to be on solid ground statistically, and it could be quite useful. You can read about it from the source here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/introducing-props/

To take the words of the stat's creator, J.C. Bradbury, PrOPS

"uses batted-ball types (line drive rate, groundball-to-flyball ratio) and a few other things to generate the typical outcome for a player who hits the ball in this manner."

These variables include:

Line drives per batted ball
Groundball-to-flyball ratio
Walk rate
Hit-by-pitch rate
Strikeout rate
Home run rate
Home park of the player

It's basically the same kind of measure as Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), only for hitters. He goes on to say about it's significance,

"There is a highly statistically significant relationship…between a player’s over/under performance and his decline/improvement. And the greater the the deviation between PrOPS and OPS, the larger the reversion is the following season. For every 0.01 increase/decrease in a player’s over/under performance, his OPS is likely to fall/rise by 0.008 the following season. For example, a player with an OPS 10 “points” above his PrOPS, can expect his OPS to fall by eight points in the following season. That is quite a reversion."

So any player that has a positive difference for a season is probably going to be worse the next year, while a negative difference would indicate they will probably be better.

Now lets take a look at how the Cardinals performed last season:

                                               Predicted    Actual        Difference

    Yadier Molina   C                  .761        .740         -0.021

    Albert Pujols   1B                    1.076        1.114        .038

    Adam Kennedy 2B          .714         .692       -0.022

    Khalil Greene   SS      .706         .599       -0.106

    Troy Glaus    3B                .890        .856     -0.035

    Skip Schumaker    LF           .780          .765     -0.015

    Rick Ankiel    CF                     .878         .843         -0.035

    Ryan Ludwick    RF              .969          .966         -0.003

    Joe Mather   OF          .881         .780         -0.101

    Chris Duncan   LF                 .809         .711         -0.098

    Brendan Ryan   INF              .665        .596       -0.069

As you can see, only one player who is likely to get a significant number of AB's next year overperformed their predicted OPS, and that is none other than Albert Pujols. Judging from Bradbury's methodology, we can expect Pujols to have a 1.083 OPS next season.

Every other player under-performed their predicted OPS, meaning they are likely to have better seasons next year than last, or at least not regress significantly. Given that the Cardinals were 4th in the NL in runs scored in '08, this data is cause for fans to be optimistic about the offense, at least, for next year.

Some interesting conclusions from the data:

Ludwick's season was not a fluke.
Ludwick's PrOPS matched very closely with his actual OPS, with only a -0.003 difference. Luddy's OPS basically matched perfectly with his performance, so it's more likely than not his success will continue.

Khalil Greene should be better.
Greene's difference of -0.106 says that he was quite unlucky last season. Combined with his career numbers, this looks to be more evidence that we can expect a bounceback from Greene next year.

Rick Ankiel has a ton of potential.
His excellent debut season was actually supposed to be better. Given that it was only his second full season of hitting period, let alone in the majors, and he was injured during a part of it, I'd say we can expect great things from Rick as he develops.

Joe Mather deserves playing time.
While his rookie campaign went well, he was unlucky. Judging from the formula, Mather should have around an .860 OPS next season.

One should not simply look at this statistic and take it as Gospel. Career performance, injuries, age, ballpark, and other variables are very important in determining a player's likely future performance; however, PrOPS is a useful tool in seeing how luck has affected past seasons, and what to expect in the future.

Duncan, By the Numbers

ViperLjs — Fri, 16 May 2008 06:31:02 -0000

While I've been reading VEB for quite some time now, this is my first post, so hello to everyone!

I decided to take an in-depth look at how Chris Duncan has been hitting so far this season, to see if I could uncover anything that would explain his loss of power.

I was expecting to see a list of bad omens; surprisingly , the numbers are telling a good story about Duncan at the moment.

Lets start off with a primer:
Duncan was, in a the past, a huge power producer.
His Isolated power, or ISO(ISO = SLG-AVG)for '07 and '06, was .221 and .296, respectively. That includes his injury-riddled second half of last season; his ISO for the first half of '07 was .259. To put this in perspective, Pujols' ISO last season was .241, and David Ortiz's was .289. That's some lofty company. When Duncan is hitting, he hits for BIG TIME power.

Thus far into the season, his numbers are: .258/.375/.398, with an ISO of .140, which is slightly above Skip Schumaker-type power levels.
So, this tells us what we already know: he's not hitting for much power anymore. But is it just bad luck, or something else?

So far this season, he has an extremely high walk rate of 17.6%, well above his career average. He is also striking out a 19.4% clip, which is below his career average. This would lend to the belief that he is seeing the ball well.

His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) tells a lot of the story. It is currently .297; that would not be telling normally (since the ML average is usually around .300) but Duncan has a 24% line drive rate thus far in the season, which is very good. Since line drives go for hits more than any other type of batted ball, his BABIP should be sustainable around the .320 mark or so. (For comparison, Duncan has BABIP marks of .317 and .329, in the '06 and '07 seasons, respectively, with line drive rates of 20% both seasons.)
He is also elevating the ball at a normal rate, despite what our eyes are telling us; he currently has a groundball percentage of 42%, which is right in line with his career rate.

Basically, what all this tells me are 2 things: Duncan has hit into some bad luck so far, and he is due to a regression to the mean of his career (~.230 ISO) given the good peripheral stats.

Does this mean he will definitely go back to his former level? No. That hernia and the operation that followed could have done some serious damage to his swing; all I'm saying is, given the stats so far, there is a good chance he will go back to his former self. So everyone who is gung-ho about trading Duncan, hold off just a little while longer. Besides, why would we want to trade him in the absolute valley of his career? Makes no sense; we wouldn't get any return on him. Would be nice to get him off the field, though. The numbers aren't so kind to him there.

Al Saunders: A Look at the Stats

ViperLjs — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 03:04:27 -0000

We've all heard the buildup of optimism about Al Saunders, so I think it would be beneficial to take a closer look at exactly how his coaching has influenced his teams.

I'm going to spend the most time on his stint with the Chiefs; I think it is the best sample of his abilities. I'll explain below.

Saunders was first seen in St. Louis in the legendary 1999 season, where he served as the WR coach. As I'm sure you all know, that team possessed one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history:

Record	Total Yards	Points Per game	Offensive Rank	Rush Yards	Pass Yards
13-3	6412	32.9	1st	2059	4353

After the '99 season, Martz was promoted to HC, and Saunders acquired the position of Assistant HC. In 2000, the offense was even better than in '99, and the Greatest Show proceeded to demolish the league once again:

Record	Total Yards	Points Per game	Offensive Rank	Rush Yards	Pass Yards
10-6	7075	33.8	1st	1843	5232

In those two years, the offense scored a cumulative 1066 points. Now that was definitely Mad Mike's offense, but the presence of Saunders should not be overlooked. He is still respected among the veterans here for his work during those years.

Saunders' first stint as an OC came in Kansas City in 2001, when Dick Vermeil came back from retirement to be the head coach of the Chiefs. Here are the offense's numbers for his tenure with them: (note that 2000 was before his arrival; it's included for comparison)

	Record	Total Yards	Points Per game	Offensive Rank	Rush Yards	Pass Yards
2000	7-9	5614	22.2	9th	1465	4149
2001	6-10	5673	20	16th	2008	3665
2002	8-8	6000	29.2	1st	2378	3622
2003	13-3	5910	30.2	1st	1929	3981
2004	7-9	6695	30.2	2nd	2289	4406
2005	10-6	6192	25.2	6th	2382	3810

In 2001, the new regime took control and production suffered, but that's not unexpected; the team had entirely new coaches, systems, and players. That year Elvis Grbac gave way to Trent Green at QB, and Tony Richardson to Priest Holmes at RB.

The period 0f 2002-2005 was exemplary; the Chiefs were the No. 1 offense in the NFL during that span. The four years preceding 2000, the offensive ranks in PPG were 8th('99), 14th('98), 5th('97), and 24th('96). The Chiefs' average offensive rank during the 5 year span before Saunders' arrival was 12th; their average rank during Saunders' 5 year term was 5th.

Needless to say, the offense was better under Saunders than under the previous leadership. Saunders definitely benefited from having a great group of core players, including Trent Green, Priest Holmes, and Larry Johnson in their primes; however, it does take a great offensive mind to make a team operate at that level for a sustained amount of time.

I also took note of the better balance between passing and rushing yards. Saunders is known to prefer a very balanced attack, with a timing-based passing system and a versatile, "three-dimensional" back to round it out. Sounds like a tight fit for Bulger and Jackson, if only Jackson could get that third dimension by learning how to block effectively.

After his time in Kansas City, Saunders migrated to the Washington Redskins, as the OC under Joe Gibbs. His time there was not nearly as prolific as his earlier ventures. In fact, the numbers for his two years there are quite pedestrian:

	Record	Total Yards	Points Per game	Offensive Rank	Rush Yards	Pass Yards
2006	5-11	5243	19.2	20th	2216	3027
2007	9-7	5334	20.9	18th	1871	3463

In this case, however, I don't think the numbers tell the whole story. In Kansas City, Saunders was given latitude to build the offense to his specifications. In Washington, however, there have been rumors that Gibbs exerted more influence over the offense than Saunders would have liked. It also seems that the personnel that Saunders had to work with did not fit his offensive philosophy, i.e. an accurate, timing-based QB and a versatile RB. Hopefully, these two years will prove to be a blip on an otherwise outstanding offensive career.

I am very excited about this hiring; I believe it brings some much needed credibility back to the offense. Saunders has a pedigree that few can match, and given his past experience with the Rams, the fit is perfect.