SBNation.com User Blog: Vishnu_falcon

Three Keys to Winning a Play off game

Vishnu_falcon — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 19:23:43 -0000

In the world of Fantasy Football, every one wants a blow out. The consensus in the media seems to be teams that are blowing out opponents have better chances in playoffs. In this post, lets look at the three key factors influencing the success or failure of a play off teams from 2005.

1. It is the Defense, Stupid:

The teams posted a combined record of 22-66(0.25) when the defense gave up 21 points or more. Since 2005, only Arizona Cardinals(3-2) have a record over .500 in playoff games when the defense gave up 21 points or more. There are two teams, Saints(3-3) and Steelers(3-3) who have 0.500 record.

Where do the teams with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as QB stand? Patriots are 1-5, and Colts are 1-4 with Manning in these game situations. Giants, Ravens, Falcons are all 0-3 in those games. The Eagles, who ranked pretty high in the blow out wins are 0-4 in similar games.

2. Take an Early lead and Score at least 21 Points/Game:

The successful playoff teams have a good defense but the offense needs to score enough points for the win. The offenses which scored at least 21 points and had a lead at half time posted a record of 50-7 from 2005. Patriots are 5-1, Steelers are 7-0, Packers are 5-0, Giants,Bears and Cardinals are 3-0.

3. Do not lose on the Turnover Margin:

The teams who have lost the TO battle but gave up less than 21 points still won more than half of the games. However, teams who lost the Turnover margin and allowed 21 points to opponents posted a combined record of 3-43 from 2005. Bears are the only team with 2-2 record and Saints have a record of 1-2. No other team in NFL ever won a playoff game by giving up 21 points and losing the turnover battle.

The biggest problem with earlier Falcons teams was defense and never did those defenses restricted the opponents to less than 20 points in playoffs. First time in last 4 years, I feel confident about falcons defense under Nolan to restrict teams to less than 21 points. This year the Falcons have shown they can score 20 points against tough defenses with out clicking on all cylinders.

The falcons need to execute as they have a defense which can hold up when Offense is not clicking. Falcons also have Offense which can bail out the struggling defense. I am cautiously optimistic about Falcons chances this year as they match up pretty well on those three factors.

What do you guys think?

1. It is the Defense, Stupid:

2. Take an Early lead and Score at least 21 Points/Game:

3. Do not lose on the Turnover Margin:

What do you guys think?

John Abraham Arrested

Vishnu_falcon — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 00:23:55 -0000

John Abraham Arrested

Doesn't look serious. Misdemeanor for obstruction of police and fire fighters.

Nominee for Weekly Putrid Punditry

Vishnu_falcon — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 21:42:16 -0000

Nominee for Weekly Putrid Punditry

This guy beats Skip Bayless and Trent Dilfer with his ridiculous ranking. I guess QB who can't even win regular season games don't have to worry about playoff losses.

Falcons Offense Becoming Elite

Vishnu_falcon — Sat, 15 Sep 2012 01:14:36 -0000

A buddy of mine, who is a Cowboys fan sent me an ESPN Insider article about Falcons Offense by Ron Jaworski. Here is the link ,if you have ESPN Insider subscription. I am not going to post the whole article but here are some of the snippets after the jump.

Ron Jaworski starts off talking about how RG III,Joe Flacco and Peyton Manning has overshadowed the coverage of Falcons offensive performance in week1. He breaks down further, than the usual talk about all the weapons Falcons have on the offense.

But it's not just the speed of those offensive assets that makes the Falcons so effective, it's the speed at which Atlanta operates. I usually like to watch a team for four games before I make an evaluation on an offense. I think it takes that long before you can get a broad template of what teams are trying to do. But Week 1 in Kansas City painted a pretty clear picture of what the Falcons want to do with the ball -- strike hard, and fast. And opposing defenses better have the oxygen tanks ready on the sideline.

Its refreshing to see Ron Jaworski acknowledge the Falcons No huddle offense, which was overshadowed by QB who started running no huddle recently.

The no-huddle offense is nothing new for the Falcons, but in Week 1 Ryan really took it up a notch. When I watched him operate against the Chiefs, the first thing I thought of was the Eagles game last season where Philly was dominating … until the Falcons went to the no-huddle and took over the game. This is a weapon with which the Falcons can dominate even the most talented opponents.

Jaworski then talks about how falcons dictate the tempo of the game,which tires the defenses. Jaworski talks about how big bodies on defense need to run back for the next play.He further breaks down the Falcons third scoring drive when Falcons went no huddle.

There was one package in particular the Falcons ran during that scoring drive that intrigued me. I call it the Double Bubble. In the Double Bubble, Atlanta sets up a bubble screen to both sides of the line, to Julio Jones and Roddy White. At the start of the drive, Ryan threw it to White on the right side of the formation for a gain of 16. At the end of the drive, Ryan threw it to Jones for a 14-yard touchdown. While it was very effective in terms of moving the ball, it also was effective in terms of draining the defense.

Jaworski on what Falcons can do further.

I think this is going to be the tip of the iceberg. I think in time the Falcons will further develop the Double Bubble to give them an option in the middle of the field as well, attacking that vacated center of the formation with the versatile Rodgers -- the back the Falcons favor for their hurry-up sets -- with the run or pass. I'll be watching this with great interest the rest of the season.

He ends the article on how defenses can stop the Falcons offense in two steps. Step 1 is jamming the receivers to disrupt the timing of Ryan and step 2 by hitting Ryan and making him uncomfortable. However,Jarwoski acknowledges that its easier said than done.

I hope Falcons start out fast with no huddle against Broncos.

Can Dirk Koetter run a Balanced and Successful Falcons Offense?

Vishnu_falcon — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 19:48:56 -0000

The Falcons and Jaguars last year were both run first teams except when trailing or forced to pass in a 2nd or 3rd and long situations, Dirk Koetter hire didn't impress lot of folks outside of Flowery Branch as the Jaguars Offense was ranked 32nd in the NFL last year. In this post lets look at the Mike Mularkey's and Dirk Koetter's Play calling balance(Pass Vs Run) and Success percentage on first downs and third downs when the game was with in a score. There is a difference in personnel between two teams but jump in to the post with an assumption that Jaguars had same or similar talent on offense compared to Atlanta.

First Down(Game with in a score):

Pass%(NFL): Average Pass% in NFL, SPP%: Successful Pass play(>4yards on first down or 40% of Yards to go),SRP%):Successful Rushing Play(>4 yards on first down or 40% of yards to go)

Jacksonville Jaguars(1st Down,Game with in 7 Points)
Year	Pass%	Pass % ( NFL)	Rank	SPP %	SPP (NFL) %	Rank	SRP	SRP(NFL)%	Rank
2007	40.89	45.27	23	56.36	54.36	12	44.65	43.65	14
2008	49.15	45.31	9	56.55	54.03	10	46.00	44.03	10
2009	42.00	43.78	22	52.38	53.73	19	44.83	45.98	17
2010	40.71	44.71	26	56.14	53.17	8	51.20	44.30	2
2011	34.73	44.42	31	40.96	52.92	31	48.08	45.00	11
Atlanta Falcons(1st Down,Game with in 7 Points)
Year	Pass%	Pass % ( NFL)	Rank	SPP %	SPP (NFL) %	Rank	SRP	SRP(NFL)%	Rank
2007	49.05	45.27	10	55.81	54.36	13	42.54	43.65	20
2008	31.09	45.31	31	56.63	54.03	11	39.67	44.03	25
2009	41.35	43.78	23	43.64	53.73	30	43.59	45.98	21
2010	43.45	44.71	19	51.37	53.17	19	42.11	44.30	24
2011	37.91	44.42	27	51.43	52.92	19	39.53	45.00	28

1. Jaguars passed at least 40% of the time in last five years on first downs except in 2011 with Blaine Gabbert as QB. The highest Pass percentage on first down was in 2008 when the Jaguars passed the ball 49.15%.

2. Falcons Passed more than 40% of the time only in 2009 and 2010 under Mike Mularkey. Last year Falcons ranked 27th with only 37% percent passes on first down. This is unacceptable for a team with a 4th year QB and so many weapons in the passing game.

3. Jaguars had more SPP%(successful pass plays %) than the Falcons every year except 2011. This is pretty impressive considering not many people outside of AFC South would even name one Jaguars receiver.

4. Jaguars had more SRP%(Successful Rush Play %) on first downs than the Falcons every year from 2007-2011. This is not surprising as Falcons have a boom(long run) or bust(negative or no gain) Running game, but last two years has been more bust than boom.

Third Downs (Game with in a score):

Pass%(NFL): Average Pass% in NFL, SPP%: Successful Pass play(Third down Conversion), SRP%: (Successful Rushing Play(Third down Conversion)

Jacksonville Jaguars(3rd Downs,Game with in 7 Points)
Year	Pass%	Pass % ( NFL)	Rank	SPP %	SPP (NFL) %	Rank	SRP	SRP(NFL)%	Rank
2007	68.38	75.03	28	47.31	40.77	7	44.19	49.51	24
2008	71.13	74.65	26	37.62	40.08	22	60.98	51.88	5
2009	68.25	76.27	30	40.70	40.03	13	62.50	48.74	1
2010	63.39	76.99	32	39.44	39.44	15	65.85	50.00	3
2011	70.31	77.98	29	36.67	38.12	13	47.37	48.52	16
Atlanta Falcons(3rd Downs,Game with in 7 Points)
Year	Pass%	Pass % ( NFL)	Rank	SPP %	SPP (NFL) %	Rank	SRP	SRP(NFL)%	Rank
2007	78.06	75.03	10	40.50	40.77	15	44.12	49.51	23
2008	75.61	74.65	13	45.16	40.08	7	53.33	51.88	12
2009	86.89	76.27	2	44.34	40.03	9	56.25	48.74	7
2010	84.76	76.99	3	48.20	39.44	3	68.00	50.00	2
2011	84.75	77.98	4	56.00	38.12	2	66.67	48.52	5

1. Jaguars were one of the teams with least Pass% on third downs, this means they were usually in 3rd and short situations. Atlanta however ranked in top 5 for most passing %. This is not surprising as Falcons faced more 3rd and longs than any one in the NFL last year.

2. Falcons in the Mike Mularkey and Matt Ryan Era had better Third down Success % on passing plays compared to Jaguars. Jaguars best SPP% on third downs was in 2007 when the Jaguars offense had a break out year.

3. The Falcons were ranked second in 2011 and third in 2010 for third down pass conversions when the game was with in a score.

4. Jaguars and Falcons both ranked at the top for SRP%(Successful Rush Play %) most of the last 3 or 4 years. The big reason for successful Falcons running game on 3rd downs is Michael Turner, he had a 3rd down success rate of 71% last year when the game was on the line.

Dirk Koetter ran a successful rushing offense on first downs and third downs,the passing offense however was successful on first downs and average on third downs. This is impressive considering the QB and the weapons in the passing game at Dirk Koetter's disposal in Jacksonville. Falcons on the other hand ran an average passing offense and a boom or bust rushing offense on first downs in last 4 years. However the Falcons were top passing and rushing offense on third downs with game on the line.

Dirk Koetter needs to incorporate his successful first down passing and rushing offense while maintaing the top 5 Falcons 3rd down offense.

I personally think Falcons will run 55% on first down and pass around 45% of the time. What do you guys think ?

For Some reason I can't attach a poll. Use comments to vote for what could be pass vs run percentage this year.

1. Pass 45%, Run 55%.

2. Pass 55%, Run 45%.

3. Pass<40% and Run >60%.

4. Pass >60% and Run <40%.

Samuel's Pick 6 at Friday Night Lights.

Vishnu_falcon — Sat, 04 Aug 2012 17:37:29 -0000

Samuel's Pick 6 at Friday Night Lights.

For those who couldn't make it to Friday Night Lights, here are the pics of Asante Samuel taking a pick to the house. A good way to shut up the haters. I can't wait for Samuel to pick up Brees,Romo,Vick and Newton.

First Week of Training Camp: Notes from Flowery Branch

Vishnu_falcon — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 19:02:48 -0000

Falcons Training camp started almost a week ago, I was lucky to attend the camp for 4 days. Here is the week 1 report with the pics from Falcons Training camp. I focused mostly on the competition at 4/5 WR,OL,LB,TE and the DL.

Best Catch of the camp:

Julio Jones and Brent Grimes are both awesome and Grimes can jump as high as Julio. Here is the best catch of the camp so far.

Fourth Wide Receiver:

The fourth WR will be Kerry Meier given that he caught everything thrown around him and is a good special teams player. It was fun to watch Meier getting the best of Asante Samuel in the 3rd down drills. Meier also caught some under thrown or thrown behind balls, he could be used as a possession receiver(think Brian Finneran) on 3rd downs to keep the chains moving. Here is the video with Kerry Meier's pictures

Julio Jones:

Julio Jones has been absolute beast in the training camp. Julio and Ryan never connected on the deep ball in last years training camp, but that has all changed this year. Ryan to JJ in the 30-40 yard range throws have been on the money. Another video with pictures of Julio's catches are here.

Best Catch of the camp:

Julio Jones and Brent Grimes are both awesome and Grimes can jump as high as Julio. Here is the best catch of the camp so far.

Fourth Wide Receiver:

Julio Jones:

Offensive Line:

The offensive line is probably still in transition with various combinations of players being tried at different positions. The first team on the OL so far has been Garret Reynolds at RG,McClure at Center(90% snaps), Joe Hawely (20%), Tyson Clabo(90%), Justin Blalock and Sam Baker and Svitek at RT(10%). In the Second team,Konz is the RG,Joe Hawely the Center,Svitek the LT,Mike Johnson at RT. Konz is getting reps at Center with the third team. Holmes is slowly ramping up mainly in the walk through sessions, however Pat hill is paying good attention to what he is doing. Here is a video of pat Hill and the OL pictures from the camp.

Safeties:

Safeties have been the bright spot in the secondary so far in the camp. William Moore and Thomas Decoud have talked about being aggressive in the Nolan's scheme, that was apparent in the first few days of the camp. Here is the video with William Moore and Decoud's pictures.

Fifth Wide Receiver:

The battle for the fifth Wide Receiver is probably the hardest fight in the roster. At this moment the front runners are Kevin Cone and Drew Davis. Cone is a fan favorite and faster of the two guys,however he doesn't have soft hands. There were couple of drops which were picked up after cone couldn't control the ball. Drew Davis has been pretty consistent and beat Franks couple of days in a row for easy TD. James Rodgers is the wild card as Mike Smith had said special teams play is more important for the 5th WR. I feel bad for Rodgers because its John Parker Wilson overthrowing him on almost every opportunity he gets.Here is the video with Kevin Cone and Drew Davis catches.

Line Backers:

Spoon and Nicholas are the LB in the Nickel package. Dent and Robert James are getting some reps with the first team at MLB when 3 LB are on the field. Robert James is not going to let his roster spot go to some one else, he made couple of nice plays which resulted in interceptions. Here is the Video with pictures of LB corps. Harris is a wild card but can he do enough to take Robert James Spot?

Roddy White:

Roddy White hasn't dropped catch on the days I was at Flowery Branch. Roddy White caught couple of nice deep balls in the end zone and has been clutch in the third down drills. With a good offseason Roddy White might be back to his 2010 form. Here is the Video of Roddy White.

Harry Douglas:

This offseason Harry Douglas has bulked up, he looks strong and fast. The stiff arm by Harry Douglas on Dunta Robinson and WIlliam Moore was fun to watch. I haven't seen Harry Douglas being Physical in last 3 or 4 years, hopefully Dirk Koetter will use him more in the passing game.Here is stronger and faster Harry Douglas Video with pictures.

Tony Gonzalez:

How many times have we seen Tony Gonzalez make catches with LB and Safeties hanging over him? TG is doing just that at the training camp, he might have lost a step but he is smarter and doesn't let the defenders bat the ball from his hands. His work ethic is second to none, You could see Gonzalez practicing different moves while other players on the sideline taking a break during the walk throughs. Here is the Video of Tony Gonzalez making some clutch catches.

John Abraham:

John Abraham is another ageless wonder on the roster, he has been good in the camp and made some jaw dropping plays. Here is the picture of John Abraham going up to bat down a pass at the Line of Scrimmage.

Franks seems to have regressed from a disastrous play off game against the Giants. Drew Davis,Kevin Cone,Lamark Brown all beat him for long gains on short passes. Franks had a pick six but he has been beat consistently.

I haven't covered DL and Backup TE in this post, If you need more information ask away in the comments.

Falcons Minicamp: Day 3 Notes From Flowery Branch

Vishnu_falcon — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 21:44:45 -0000

Here are some quick notes on the final day of the mini camp. I focussed most of today's mini camp on the rookies and UDFA as much as possible.

1. Kerry Meier is back to the 2010 pre season form before he was hurt. He was grabbing anything thrown around him, made some tough catches. Probably he was the best player of the minicamp among both defense and offense. Meier did celebrate a Touch down pass in the red zone drill ( pic here).

2. If you haven't yet heard the name Lamark Brown TE, its time to change that. Lamark Brown caught some nice passes and there were 3 passes which stood out. In the first pass, he was wide open and Faulcon tried to cover the ground (pic here).The second catch was in front of Robert James(Pic here) and the third catch was the best, a grab in the traffic with 3 defenders around(Pic Here). If he performs well through out the training camp and Preseason at worst he might end up on PS.

3. Tommy Gallarda TE caught couple of nice catches with the first team. Michael Palmer looked good and makes you wonder why MM never used him(pic here).

4. JPW continues to be bad, his lack of balance when throwing(Pic here) resulted in a pass 20 feet above the receiver(Pic here).

5. Michael Turner caught couple of passes out of the backfield. First pass was a simple dump off which would have resulted in a nice gain as Spoon had to cover lot of ground(pic here).Second pass was nicely designed play and Turner wasted no time getting in to open field(pic here).

6. James Rodgers has a uphill battle to climb to be the 5th or 6th WR. But he grabbed couple of low throws, he can get lost in the middle of those big linemen(pic here). The last catch of the day for Rodgers was his best, scooping an under thrown ball in the redone drills(pic here).

7.Charles Mitchell showed some good instincts(pic here) and broke up a pass (pic here).

8. Ryan looked good in no huddle as always(pic here). However he didn't look any bulkier(pic here).

9. Spoon Intercepted a broken up pass to Harry Douglas(pic here).

10. Roddy showed Chris Owens who is the boss(pic here). Roddy also caught a TD pass in red zone drills in addition to a 3rd and 7 simulation.

11 Snelling looks trimmer and fitter among the FB and RB(pic here).

Its too early to say who will make the roster but looks like there will be good competition for 3rd TE position (Lamark Brown Vs Tommy Gallards) and the 5th WR( Drew Davis vs Cone vs Rodgers).

Here are some quick notes on the final day of the mini camp. I focussed most of today's mini camp on the rookies and UDFA as much as possible.

3. Tommy Gallarda TE caught couple of nice catches with the first team. Michael Palmer looked good and makes you wonder why MM never used him(pic here).

4. JPW continues to be bad, his lack of balance when throwing(Pic here) resulted in a pass 20 feet above the receiver(Pic here).

7.Charles Mitchell showed some good instincts(pic here) and broke up a pass (pic here).

8. Ryan looked good in no huddle as always(pic here). However he didn't look any bulkier(pic here).

9. Spoon Intercepted a broken up pass to Harry Douglas(pic here).

10. Roddy showed Chris Owens who is the boss(pic here). Roddy also caught a TD pass in red zone drills in addition to a 3rd and 7 simulation.

11 Snelling looks trimmer and fitter among the FB and RB(pic here).

Its too early to say who will make the roster but looks like there will be good competition for 3rd TE position (Lamark Brown Vs Tommy Gallards) and the 5th WR( Drew Davis vs Cone vs Rodgers).

Falcons Minicamp: Day 1 Notes From Flowery Branch.

Vishnu_falcon — Wed, 20 Jun 2012 01:56:29 -0000

I had no plans of going to minicamp today, but my wife picked me up early from work and had a surprise trip to Flowery branch planned. Here are some observations from the minicamp. I was having problems uploading the pics to photo bucket to share in this post directly, I added the link to the pics I posted from my phone to twitter.

1. Julio Jones made some great catches. The play I liked the most was one over the middle where spoon was easily beaten( Pic Here) in coverage. Julio took off after the catch only to be seen in the end zone (Pic Here)

2. Harry Douglas made some nice catches and the offense had different looks with JJ in the slot and Douglas on the left covered by Samuel( Pic here).

3. Meier made nice catches mostly with Second team but he did catch one against Grimes(Pic Here).

4. Defense did a nice job by putting pressure on the offense and Ryan. Dunta Robinson blitzed Ryan (Pic Here) and the result was a sack as Ryan couldn't get rid of the ball. If not for the sack, it would have been a holding call(Pic Here).

5. Defense didn't let Julio have a perfect day. Robinson broke up a pass to Julio as the ball went out of reach of Decoud(Pic here). After the broken pass, Asante was making fun of the offense daring them to throw the ball.

6. Roddy had enough of Dunta Robinson and made a nice catch jumping in the air (Pic here).

7. James Rodgers is quick but looks really small(Pic here)

8. Jerry was lined up with Babs,Abe and the first team.(Pic Here).

9. Snelling looked quick on a screen pass( Pic here) and he was out in the open in no time. (Pic here)

After watching all the action today, September can't come soon enough for me.

2. Harry Douglas made some nice catches and the offense had different looks with JJ in the slot and Douglas on the left covered by Samuel( Pic here).

3. Meier made nice catches mostly with Second team but he did catch one against Grimes(Pic Here).

6. Roddy had enough of Dunta Robinson and made a nice catch jumping in the air (Pic here).

7. James Rodgers is quick but looks really small(Pic here)

8. Jerry was lined up with Babs,Abe and the first team.(Pic Here).

9. Snelling looked quick on a screen pass( Pic here) and he was out in the open in no time. (Pic here)

After watching all the action today, September can't come soon enough for me.

Help Needed to pick a Topic.

Vishnu_falcon — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 16:56:51 -0000

I might have some time this week to do some research and some of you have asked in the comments about some of the topics and stats. As I probably have time for one topic to do some research, I would like to get a poll on which topic might be of the most interest.

Most of my posts in the past have been primarily on defense,however this time I want to focus some on the offense.

Poll

Choose one topic

Falcons 3rd down Offense.

13 votes

Falcons offensive play calling Balance

12 votes

Stats on YAC and Number of attempts to WR in stride

12 votes

Julio Jones: Good bad and Ugly from 2011

9 votes

Matt Ryan:Good Bad and Ugly from 2011

8 votes

54 votes | Poll has closed

Sean Weatherspoon is PFF's Prototype Will LB

Vishnu_falcon — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 18:04:22 -0000

Sean Weatherspoon is PFF's Prototype Will LB

Good to see Spoon get some love for the breakout year in 2011. Spoon was ranked 4th against run among OLB by PFF. It explains why the Coach Smith is high on this guy taking over as leader of the defense. We already know how good Spoon was on 3rd downs forcing 13 punts last year.

Third Down Pass Defense: Mike Nolan Edition

Vishnu_falcon — Mon, 21 May 2012 23:54:15 -0000

The biggest challenge for Mike Nolan this year, as a Defensive Coordinator is probably to improve the Falcons third down pass defense. This won't be an easy task for Mike Nolan as last years falcons defense couldn't stop Christian Ponder and Tavaris Jackson on third downs. In this post, lets dig in to the third down pass conversions allowed by Miami and Atlanta compared to the rest of the NFL in 2011.

Third Down Pass Conversion Allowed:

Rank	Def	Pass Att.	3rd Conv	3rd Conv %
1	ARI	168	42	25.0000
2	BAL	178	52	29.2135
3	NYJ	181	53	29.2818
4	MIA	172	51	29.6512
5	HOU	175	52	29.7143
6	DEN	161	49	30.4348
7	NO	174	54	31.0345
8	CIN	169	54	31.9527
9	KC	153	49	32.0261
10	DET	160	52	32.5000
23	DAL	164	64	39.0244
24	OAK	173	69	39.8844
25	TEN	178	71	39.8876
26	TB	137	56	40.8759
27	ATL	166	68	40.9639
28	CAR	150	62	41.3333
29	NE	158	66	41.7722
30	MIN	160	67	41.8750
31	IND	154	68	44.1558
32	SD	144	65	45.1389

Miami's pass defense ranked 4th in 3rd down conversions allowed with 29.6% conversion rate. The reason for Miami's success on 3rd downs was primarily because of QB pressures/sacks.
Atlanta ranked 27th in 3rd down conversions with a 40.96% conversion rate. The significant portion of the conversions allowed were in the middle of the field by the Linebackers. Curtis Lofton lead the team in 3rd down conversions allowed and Sean Weatherspoon lead the defense in 3rd down stops forcing 13 Punts.
NO ranked 7th in 3rd down pass conversion%, the Saints did a good job in getting key stops for the offense to score points and increase the lead or keep the games close. It would be interesting to see if Curtis Lofton will continue to give up bunch of 3rd down conversions in NO.
Only teams ranked in the bottom 10 which made it to the play offs were ATL at 27 and NE at 29. This shows how much pressure Ryan and the offense were in to compensate for lack of good defense on third downs.
Six of the top 10 teams with least 3rd down conversions % made it to the play offs, except Miami the other 3 teams missed the playoffs by 1 game.

Here is another example of the pressure Mike Nolan's defense in Miami put on Brady.

This clip is on 4th down against NYG, but this should look familiar to the Falcons fans as the QB throws early with a defender on the back,only to miss everyone..

And last but not the least, if the same QB above gets enough time this is what happens on a deep ball.

I hope Mike Nolan has a good plan in place to improve the 3rd down pass defense. Personally, I have no doubt that Asante Samuel is part of that plan and probably Mike Nolan thinks Defensive line problems can be solved by creative pressure packages.

Poll

Where do you think the most significant improvement on 3rd downs will come from?

Defensive Line.

8 votes

Improved Secondary with addition of Samuel.

30 votes

Over all Defense because of Mike Nolan's Pressure packages.

110 votes

No improvement, Mike Nolan Can't fix this Defense.

0 votes

No improvement, ATL doesn't have the right players.

4 votes

152 votes | Poll has closed

Third Down Sacks: Mike Nolan Edition

Vishnu_falcon — Mon, 21 May 2012 18:56:26 -0000

As a Falcons fan, I always wished for a defense which can sack or knock off the QB on 3rd downs. Luckily, Mike Nolan is known around the NFL for pressure packages and bringing the heat on the QB especially on 3rd downs. In this post, lets take a look how Nolan's Defense did on 3rd downs in MIA last year, coincidentally the Falcons play AFC West and NFC East teams this year, same teams who played against MIA in 2011.

Third Down Sacks

Def	Drop Backs	3rd Sacks	3rd Sack%	Rank
BAL	178	24	13.4831	1
MIA	172	21	12.2093	2
NYG	175	21	12.0000	3
PHI	171	19	11.1111	4
CIN	169	18	10.6509	5
MIN	160	17	10.6250	6
HOU	175	18	10.2857	7
DEN	161	16	9.9379	8
OAK	173	17	9.8266	9
STL	165	16	9.6970	10
CAR	150	11	7.3333	23
TB	137	10	7.2993	24
NO	174	12	6.8966	25
WAS	161	11	6.8323	26
DAL	164	11	6.7073	27
PIT	169	11	6.5089	28
SD	144	9	6.2500	29
ATL	166	10	6.0241	30
GB	168	8	4.7619	31
TEN	178	8	4.4944	32

Miami ranked 2nd in total number of sacks on 3rd down as well as in 3rd down Sack %. The Falcons and Miami Defenses are different but, Mike Nolan did dial up some creative blitzes and pressure plays on 3rd downs.
Falcons were ranked 30th in 3rd down sack%, sacking the QB only on 6% of the drop backs on 3rd downs. This is not surprising as the QB could have cooked eggs before throwing the ball on 3rd downs against the Falcons last year.
QB Pressures and QB hits also influence the third down conversions but getting a Sack is the best possible outcome on a 3rd down. I will do a continuation post on the over all 3rd down conversions later.

Enjoy the 3rd down CB blitz below which put Brady on the ground. I have never seen BVG crowd the Line of Scrimmage last year on a 3rd down to disguise where the Blitz was coming from. The defender was never picked up by the RB or OL.

Another one below, a Safety Blitz on Vick.Similar to the earlier blitz, the defender had a free run at the QB.

I personally can't think of any reason why Nolan can't do the same with Falcons. Finally, I think Falcons can have a intimidating defense on 3rd downs.

Poll

Where do you think Falcons will Rank in the NFL on 3rd down Sacks?

Top 5, Mike Nolan will work his Magic.

192 votes

Top 6-10

265 votes

Between 11-20, Falcons don't have the right Players

99 votes

Bottom 10, Nolan will be a bust in ATL.

5 votes

Bottom 10, Falcons don't have the right players.

11 votes

572 votes | Poll has closed

QB listed for voting in NFL 2012 Top 100

Vishnu_falcon — Mon, 14 May 2012 14:43:24 -0000

Surprise! Matt Ryan is not in the13 QB listed for voting.

Here is the list in no Particular Order. Not sure if this list is based on next years projections or it is based on 2011 performance? Either ways it doesn't make sense to include Tim Tebow (probably a back up in 2012) or Peyton Manning who didn't play a single game in 2011.

Tim Tebow
Tony Romo
Phillip Rivers
Eli Manning
Big Ben
Peyton Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Cam Newton
Joe Flacco
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Mike Vick
Matthew Stafford

I wonder if Matt Ryan forgot to pray or is this list some kind off a joke. What say you Falcoholics?

Dilbert and Matt Ryan

Vishnu_falcon — Mon, 07 May 2012 15:38:09 -0000

Dilbert on Matt Ryan's deep ball.

The NFL classifies the pass thrown more than 15 yards as deep pass. Drew Brees ranked on top for 15-25 yard passes followed by Rodgers and Tom Brady among QB with at least 70 deep TA(23 QB had at least 70 deep TA). Rodgers ranked first for 40+ passes but Drew Brees and Tom Brady ranked outside top 10 for 40+ yard passes. Matt Ryan ranked 7th for 40 + yard passes and 13th for 15-25 yard passes.

Who Really are the Falcons?

Vishnu_falcon — Tue, 01 May 2012 18:25:46 -0000

I started writing a fan post on Matt Ryan in 2011 ,but I realized the Falcons are much bigger than Ryan which made me wonder "Who really are the Falcons?".

The answers to the above question range from Falcons being an overrated team, NFC Playoff contender, average team winning close games and an above average running team with an overrated QB etc. Lets jump in to the post to find "Who really are Mike Smith's Falcons?" and more importantly how the Falcons compared to rest of the league in 2011.

I started writing a fan post on Matt Ryan in 2011 ,but I realized the Falcons are much bigger than Ryan which made me wonder "Who really are the Falcons?".

Personally, I am not a big fan of averages or over all high level stats. Football is a situational game, different situations dictate different strategy,scheme and play calling for both offense and defense. To win in NFL, more often than not the team which scores more Touchdowns than opposing team wins the game. Lets take a look at the following three game situations (game with in a score,leading by 10+ points,trailing by 10+ points) which most of the Offenses and defenses have to deal with.

Clutch time Drives: Game with in 1 score for either of the teams(+ or - 7 points)

This is where most of the teams try to play their best football and score as many TD as possible. Its important to score points to take a lead,increase the lead or come back and tie the game before its too late. The table below shows the TD Scored% by an offense and TD % allowed by defense. The net grade is difference in Percentage points between TD Scored and TD Allowed. This is the phase of the game where most of teams play more than 50% of their total drives.

Team	Off Drives	TD Scored%	TD Scored % Rank	TD Allowed%	TD Allowed% Rank	Net Grade	Net Grade Rank
GB	79	51.899	1	18.18	11	33.719	1
NE	104	37.500	2	19.42	17	18.080	2
PIT	89	26.966	7	11.24	3	15.726	3
NO	91	34.066	4	19.32	16	14.746	4
BAL	94	24.468	10	10.64	2	13.828	5
ATL	84	35.714	3	22.09	21	13.624	6
HOU	109	24.771	9	13.21	4	11.561	7
DET	101	25.743	8	18.10	10	7.643	8
SF	115	13.913	25	9.01	1	4.903	9
DAL	116	20.690	15	18.35	14	2.340	10
SD	95	27.368	6	26.09	28	1.278	11
ARI	140	15.714	21	16.18	6	-0.466	12
MIA	107	18.692	17	19.63	19	-0.938	13
TEN	100	17.000	19	18.18	12	-1.180	14
CHI	106	16.981	20	18.18	13	-1.199	15
OAK	118	21.186	14	22.73	23	-1.544	16
NYG	129	24.031	12	25.81	26	-1.779	17
SEA	126	14.286	23	16.13	5	-1.844	18
MIN	102	20.588	16	22.55	22	-1.962	19
NYJ	102	17.647	18	20.00	20	-2.353	20
PHI	99	24.242	11	26.67	29	-2.428	21
CAR	102	27.451	5	30.00	30	-2.549	22
CIN	134	14.925	22	18.66	15	-3.735	23
CLE	120	11.667	28	16.81	7	-5.143	24
DEN	124	11.290	29	17.46	9	-6.170	25
KC	106	10.377	30	16.98	8	-6.603	26
WAS	111	13.514	26	24.79	25	-11.276	27
JAC	97	12.371	27	23.76	24	-11.389	28
STL	84	7.143	32	19.42	18	-12.277	29
BUF	90	22.222	13	35.48	32	-13.258	30
IND	92	8.696	31	26.04	27	-17.344	31
TB	71	14.085	24	35.37	31	-21.285	32

Key Observations:

The Green Bay Packers scored TD on more than 50% of the drives when the game was with in a score. Now, if any one had doubts why Aaron Rodgers was MVP last year not Brady or Drew Brees, its time to let go of those doubts.
Atlanta Falcons offense ranked 3rd only behind GB and NE in scoring TD% when the game was with in a score, Falcons defense however ranked 21st and Falcons ended up with a net grade ranking of 6. It is surprising when you consider the awful play calling and the least successful running game in NFL on first downs.
NYG,CIN and DEN are the only Play off teams outside the top 12 grades. All there of the above teams played more closer games than other teams, each of the teams had at least 120 Drives when the game was with in a score.
Baltimore Ravens ranked fifth if you consider Net Grade, however the offense ranked 10th in TD scored%. If you consider just the passing TD and the rushing TD from with in 10 yards, the TD scored % drops to 10%. Imagine where Falcons could be if Ryan had the Ravens Defense to support the offense.
Tampa Bay sank to the bottom in the grades, now thats expected if the team gets blown out for 10 games in a row. Carolina ranked 5th in TD scored % with equal number of rushing and passing TD,however the Panthers Defense ranked 30th in TD allowed.

Drives with 10+ point Lead:

The Falcons ranked 25th in the league for the net grade with just 16% TD Scored and 32% TD allowed when leading by 10+ points. This is not surprising as the Falcons shut down their offense followed by end less parade of Punts. This is one area I would like to light a fire under Mike Smith, he should get his players and coaches to put the game away and crush the opposing teams.

One more thing, this is one phase of the game Saints really do well, the TD % Scored for Saints jumps to 45 % when they are leading by 10+ points. Now I want Mike Smith to do the same so Ryan can score lot of points and pad up his stats.

Trailing by10 Points or more Drives :

This is one area Falcons were bad in 2010, even though the Falcons were 13-3. They went ahead and added Julio Jones to become more explosive. DId It work?

Yes and No, Falcons ranked 16th in TD scored % and 25th in TD allowed % when trailing by 10 points or more. Falcons erased a ten points or more defect in 3 games( Carolina,Eagles and Saints first game) and won two of those games. How ever there were two games (Saints second game and Bears game) where the Falcons could never comeback. This phase for Falcons is work under progress hampered by Offensive Line which doesn't let Matt throw 40 times a game nor protect him longer than 2 sec.

Now back to the question: Who really are the Falcons?

The Falcons are a team like someone with Multiple Personality disorder. The Falcons are a team with an offense in top 3 when the game is on the line with a struggling defense ranked in the twenties. However Falcons also have one of the NFL's worst offense and defense when the lead is more than 10 points. Another area of improvement is coming back when trailing by more than 10 points.

I want the Falcons team to have the killer instinct and have identity of dominating other team. I personally think Head coach ,Coordinators are more to blame for the inconsistencies than players. What do you think?

My First and Final Mock Draft for 2012

Vishnu_falcon — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 14:34:05 -0000

This is my first and final Mock draft for the season. I have few surprises in there but its a simple draft based on my best guess on what Falcons need and the best players available in each round.

Second Round pick: Dwayne Allen*, TE, Clemson: Alge Crumpler on the podium to announce the Falcons second round pick at 55. The Falcons select Dwayne Allen*, TE, Clemson. Wild card entry in this round is trading up if Fleener is still there around 40th pick.

Third Round: Brandon Taylor, S, LSU: With William Moore becoming a FA next year and lack of depth at Safety, The Falcons might pick up a safety in third round. He is a sleeper prospect at Safety, Hard hitting and physical like WM and also has good instincts.

Fifth Round: Michael Egnew, TE, Missouri: This will be uncharacteristic of Falcons to pick to Tight Ends in a single draft. Falcons might be looking to draft a WR but I thought TE offers more value in this round.

Sixth Round: Ronald Leary, OT/G, Memphis: A project at LT/G, he might get some attention from Falcons because of his versatility to play tackle and Guard.

William Vlachos, C, Alabama : A development Project and need to play better against the faster NFL defenses. He might even beat out B.Romberg on the depth chart.

What do you think of my first and final mock draft?

Samuel to Falcons 3 Yr 18.5 M

Vishnu_falcon — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 17:28:41 -0000

Samuel to Falcons 3 Yr 18.5 M

First and Ten: The Agony of Michael Turner

Vishnu_falcon — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 19:17:51 -0000

Over the past season,Michael Turner has been polarizing figure in the Falcons land. The biggest knock on Turner is lack of consistency in the running game, often putting the Offense in 2nd and Long situations.. Last week, Turner was ranked second in the NFL for being elusive and breaking up tackles. How can he be both bad and good at the same time? The answer is in one of my favorite quotes.

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." ~Aaron Levenstein

Lets jump in to the post to see Where Turner ranks among the RB on first down success rate when the game is with in a score. This is to measure how clutch,helpful and effective a running back is when the game is on the line.

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." ~Aaron Levenstein

I downloaded the play by play data from here, I stripped out the juicy parts and massaged the data to identify a run play,pass play,by player,direction etc. After loading all that in a database I pulled this data.

To Measure the effectiveness of the running game, lets take a look at few of the terms.

Total Carries(TC): Total Carries on first down, when the distance togo is at least 10 Yards to go. This is to eliminate the Goal line or short yardage situations which doesn't result in 2nd and long. The list includes only the running running backs with at least 70 TC.

Successful Carries(SC): A Carry is successfull on first down when the RB gains at least a yard or a carry doesn't result in a 2nd and Long(2nd and 10+).

Negative Play: Negative play is when a running back loses yards and the offense is forced in to 2nd and 10+ yards.

Off Run %: Offense Run% is the percentage of running plays compared to total plays for same situations as TC.

Player	Off	TC	SC	SC %	Sc%Rk	NP	NP %	NP%Rk	Off Run%
M.Jones-Drew	JAC	104	97	93.26	1	6	5.76	1	63.18
D.Williams	CAR	82	72	87.80	2	5	6.09	2	50.87
S.Greene	NYJ	80	70	87.50	3	6	7.50	6	54.28
F.Gore	SF	97	84	86.59	4	8	8.24	8	52.96
R.Rice	BAL	97	84	86.59	5	6	6.18	4	61.68
W.McGahee	DEN	114	98	85.96	6	8	7.01	5	70.90
M.Bush	OAK	99	85	85.85	7	8	8.08	7	61.33
A.Foster	HOU	81	69	85.18	8	5	6.17	3	53.81
M.Lynch	SEA	105	88	83.80	9	11	10.47	13	54.68
R.Bush	MIA	83	69	83.13	10	11	13.25	16	60.15
A.Peterson	MIN	71	59	83.09	11	10	14.08	18	57.02
R.Mendenhall	PIT	91	74	81.31	12	10	10.86	14	57.29
S.Jackson	STL	92	74	81.31	13	9	9.89	11	57.67
C.Wells	ARI	112	91	81.25	14	11	9.82	10	53.87
R.Mathews	SD	86	69	80.23	15	11	12.79	15	53.07
R.Helu	WAS	70	56	80.00	16	7	10.00	12	56.33
C.Benson	CIN	117	93	79.48	17	11	9.40	9	62.73
M.Forte	CHI	73	56	76.71	18	10	13.69	17	64.91
M.Turner	ATL	116	80	68.96	19	25	21.55	20	61.22
C.Johnson	TEN	87	58	66.66	20	13	14.94	19	51.83

Successful Carries : Key Observations

Maurice Jones-Drew tops the list with 93.2% of the running plays resulting at least a yard. He was the only player to have a success rate over 90%, its even more impressive when you consider he was the only weapon for JAC last year.
Michael Turner was second to last with a success rate of 68.9%. Turner and Chris Johnson were the only RB with success rate less than 75%. He had 36 carries which resulted in no gain or loss in yardage, this is no surprise as Falcons were often forced in 2nd and long situations.
There were 16 RB on the list who had more than 80% success rate.

Negative Plays: Key Observations

Maurice Jones-Drew sits again on the top of the ranking with negative play% of only 5.76%. I hope there is some DK magic involved here which can help Turner.
Michael Turner is last on the list with a Negative play percentage of 21.5%. He also leads the list with 35 Plays resulting in the yardage loss. None of the other RB on the list had a Negative play percentage of more than 15% except Turner.

Off Run%: Key Observations

Denver ranked first with off Run% of 70.9, not surprising considering Denver was not comfortable throwing the ball with Tebow at QB.
Atlanta ran the ball 61% compared to passing on just 39% on first down and 10 or more yards to go with game on the line. This was good for 8th rank among all the teams. I personally would like to see the running play percentage go down to 55% or just above 50%.
CAR ran the ball just over 50%, least percentage of run plays in the above list. This is surprising considering how stocked up they are with running backs.

This pretty much shows how bad Turner/Falcons running game was last year on first and 10 with game on the line. Turner except when running to Left Guard did equally bad in all directions, also number of carries in different directions were pretty even. There could be a significant portion of MM effect in this performance. However, Turner must stop tiptoeing to the line and being indecisive about going sideways or North and South. In the next post on Turner I will dig deeper in to areas where Turner is in Top 5 among the RB. What do you think Falcons and Turner can do to improve on First down success rate and avoiding the negative plays.

Falcons 3rd Down Pass Defense: Dunta Robinson Edition

Vishnu_falcon — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 20:51:16 -0000

Dunta Robinson’s season of 2011 can be best described by one word : "inconsistency". Dunta had a disastrous start to the season, in the first 5 games he gave up more than 50% of his total season yards,season first down conversions and 75%(6/8) of his season 3rd down conversions. Its no surprise, as one common sighting in the first few games was Dunta throwing up arms in despair.

Before jumping in to detailed stats about third down and first down conversions,here are few of the interesting tidbits.

1. Dunta had bad games against the Quarter backs like Tavaris Jackson,Josh Freeman,Jay Cutler, Mike Kafka,Drew Brees(2nd game) and Cam Newton(2nd game). He had good games against Aaron Rodgers,Drew Brees (NO 1st game),Eli Manning(playoffs), Matthew Stafford,Cam Newton(CAR 1st game) and other QB from IND,MIN and HOU.Go figure this one.

2. Dunta gave up 15 or less yards/game in total of 7 games. He gave up 75% of his total season yards in 4 games. Dunta for most part of the season except 3 or 4 games was either boom or bust.

3. 65% of the completions allowed by Dunta went for first downs. This is some thing he needs to improve on, it could be also because of Robinson standing 10 feet away from the receivers.

4. Dunta gave up only 2 TD in 2011 compared to 5 TD in 2010 including play off games.

Dunta Robinson Pass Coverage stats for 2011

Name	Snaps	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yd	TD	3rd Stop	3rd Conv.	3rd Stop %	1st Downs	1st Downs/TA	1st Downs in Scoring Drives	Forced to Punt	Forced to FG
Dunta Robinson	997	71	38	53.5%	633	2	6	8	42.5%	25	35.2%	18	5	1
Dunta Robinson (play offs)	68	3	2	66%	15	0	1	0	100%	0	0	0	1	0

Third Down Stop %(Higher the Better):

Dunta Robinson took a step back from 2010 in third down stop %. Last year he had a stop rate of more than 66% on 3rd downs, in 2011 he gave up 8 conversions to 6 stops. However, continuing the trend from last year he had the highest 3rd down stop % among all the Corner Backs in 2011. Grimes had a stop rate of just 36% on third downs, similar to 2010 season, the opposing teams in 2011 did pick on Brent Grimes in 3rd down situations.

Dunta had a good playoff game with a 3rd down stop rate of 100% (forced a punt) and didn't allow a single first down conversion.

Forced to Punt(Higher the Better).

Dunta Robinson forced 5 punts in regular season and 1 punt in the playoffs last year. The 5 punts were good enough for distant second after Sean Weatherspoons 13 forced punts. This shows how well Weatherspoon played last year on 3rd downs.

Forced FG(Higher the Better).

Dunta forced the opposing team to 1 FG after a third down stop.

1st Downs/TA%(Lower the Better):

Dunta 1st Downs/TA% of 35% went up in 2011 compared to the 32% in 2010 season. Robinson gave up 25 first down conversions, next only to Lofton’s 28 first down conversions allowed.

Last season it was almost like 2 ghosts of Dunta Robinson playing in different games, Against good QB he did well and against average or not so good ones he really struggled.This could be fixable by Nolan, but to step up and play like a top Corner Dunta needs to be more consistent and not struggle against the average QB/WR.

Before jumping in to detailed stats about third down and first down conversions,here are few of the interesting tidbits.

2. Dunta gave up 15 or less yards/game in total of 7 games. He gave up 75% of his total season yards in 4 games. Dunta for most part of the season except 3 or 4 games was either boom or bust.

3. 65% of the completions allowed by Dunta went for first downs. This is some thing he needs to improve on, it could be also because of Robinson standing 10 feet away from the receivers.

4. Dunta gave up only 2 TD in 2011 compared to 5 TD in 2010 including play off games.

Dunta Robinson Pass Coverage stats for 2011

Name	Snaps	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yd	TD	3rd Stop	3rd Conv.	3rd Stop %	1st Downs	1st Downs/TA	1st Downs in Scoring Drives	Forced to Punt	Forced to FG
Dunta Robinson	997	71	38	53.5%	633	2	6	8	42.5%	25	35.2%	18	5	1
Dunta Robinson (play offs)	68	3	2	66%	15	0	1	0	100%	0	0	0	1	0

Third Down Stop %(Higher the Better):

Dunta had a good playoff game with a 3rd down stop rate of 100% (forced a punt) and didn't allow a single first down conversion.

Forced to Punt(Higher the Better).

Forced FG(Higher the Better).

Dunta forced the opposing team to 1 FG after a third down stop.

1st Downs/TA%(Lower the Better):

Dunta 1st Downs/TA% of 35% went up in 2011 compared to the 32% in 2010 season. Robinson gave up 25 first down conversions, next only to Lofton’s 28 first down conversions allowed.

Making Sense of Falcons Free Agency moves

Vishnu_falcon — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 18:25:38 -0000

The opening of NFL Free agency is similar to opening of a Toy/Gadget store with all the latest and greatest stuff, except in NFL Free agency you have limited stock of top players (gadgets). As a passionate fan of the team, I would want Falcons to go and get latest and greatest players (Gadgets) available. Does this mean the new Gadgets are better or offer more value than the one before? It doesn't matter, because I am emotionally wired to get the latest and greatest gadgets. After the initial disappointment over lack of splash by falcons in FA, I tried to make sense of the FA moves or lack thereof. This post is not to grade the Front office or predict everything will be magically better, but to better understand the reason. Let's look at the biggest moves this off season.

OC/DC:

This is a no brainer as we all agree that MM and BVG needed to go. I am excited with Mike Nolan as a DC and on the offense let Matt Ryan run the offense with DK as a guide.

Brent Grimes:

At the start of the off season, part of me wanted Falcons to let Brent Grimes walk and put a franchise tag on Curtis Lofton. Lofton was one of my favorite players and I still have a copy of last year's Sports Illustrated cover photo of Lofton signed by him. But the bigger question is "Can Falcons easily replace him with someone on the team?" Looking at the coverage numbers from last few games of the season and esp. in the playoff game, Franks was not ready. Franks gave up 105 yards,3 crucial 3rd down conversions and 2 TD in the play offs. The other part of secondary held up nicely with DeCoud and Dunta Robinson forcing a punt each. Chris Owens stepped up in the playoff game with two 3rd down stops resulting in a Punt and a FG. I guess it's not a stretch to say Mike Nolan thinks Franks is not ready for Prime time.

John Abraham:

This is a no brainer except for the money; Abe was number 2 on the PFF list of DE FA available only behind Mario Williams and Abraham was graded by PFF last year as second for over all DE play only behind Trent Cole. The Credit also goes to Abe for coming back to Falcons by turning down more money from Titans.

Thomas DeCoud:

DeCoud is not one of the fan favorite, rightfully so because of the missed tackles and giving up big plays early on in the season. However in the last 8 games, he just gave up 26 yards despite covering guys like Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Andre Johnson. PFF had DeCoud ranked as number 2 in the FA among safeties and without lot of options available getting back DeCoud probably was a priority for Falcons.

Curtis Lofton:

The biggest road block in bringing back Lofton was probably the difference in perception on Lofton being a 2 down or a 3 down LB. Mike Nolan thought he was a 2 down LB because of Loftons poor coverage skills especially on 3rd downs. You can refer to Lofton's 3rd down coverage numbers here and be the judge. Even with lack of coverage skills, Lofton was a tackling machine and a very young LB who could have improved. Given the difference in perception,Money and losing Brent Grimes not being an option is probably why Lofton is with s'Aints.

Regarding the Offensive Line, I don't know what to make off until the draft and end of FA. What say you?

OC/DC:

This is a no brainer as we all agree that MM and BVG needed to go. I am excited with Mike Nolan as a DC and on the offense let Matt Ryan run the offense with DK as a guide.

Brent Grimes:

John Abraham:

Thomas DeCoud:

Curtis Lofton:

Regarding the Offensive Line, I don't know what to make off until the draft and end of FA. What say you?

Falcons 3rd Down Pass Defense: LB and Curtis Lofton Edition

Vishnu_falcon — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 15:19:12 -0000

The Falcons defense ranked 29th in the league in 3rd conversion percentage last year; it was no secret that Falcons struggled to get off the field on 3rd downs. With the emergence of the Tight Ends and Running Backs as top receiving threat, the LB pass coverage skills are even more important in modern day NFL. Last year, Sean Weatherspoon (90 TA) was the most TA defensive player followed by Curtis Lofton (TA 85). Lets dig deeper and grade the LB unit in coverage on 3rd down conversions, first downs and also find out how justified Mike Nolan is on Lofton being a two down LB.

Name	Snaps	TA	Rec	Ct%	Yd	TD	3rd Stop	3rd Conv	3rd Stop %	1st Downs	1st Downs/TA	1st Downs in Scoring Drives	Forced Punt	Forced FG
Curtis Lofton	1008	85	65	76.4	550	5	5	14	26.3%	28	32.9%	21	3	1
Sean Weatherspoon	998	90	65	72.2	558	2	14	10	58.3%	24	26.6%	15	13	1
Stephen Nicholas	286	22	15	68.8	103	0	6	4	60%	6	27.2%	4	5	1
Mike Peterson	218	12	8	66	66	1	1	1	50%	2	16.6%	2	0	0
Spencer Adkins	35	3	3	100	15	0	2	1	66%	1	0%	0	1	1

Third Down Stop %(Higher the Better):

The credit for 3rd down stops is given only if the player had a direct contribution (PD, Interception, Tackle and FF) to the stop.

1. Sean Weatherspoon was a force on stopping 3rd downs(14 stops) with a 3rd down stop % of 58.9 even after playing more than 90% snaps.

2. Curtis Lofton 3rd Down Stop% of 26.3% was only higher than James Sanders (16 %). Lofton had only 5 Third down stops compared to 14 Third down conversions allowed.Stephen Nicholas maintained his 60% 3rd down stop % in 2011 after having the best 3rd down stop% in 2010.

3. Nicholas had more 3rd down stops in coverage than Curtis Lofton even though he played just 28% of total snaps.

Forced to Punt(Higher the Better).

1. Sean Weatherspoon's team leading 14 Third down stops forced the opposing teams to punt 13 times last year. This is no surprise as Spoon was usually in spotlight after blowing up RB or TE in coverage on 3rd downs.

2. Stephen Nicholas forced other teams to punt 5 times last season despite playing just 28% of the snaps. He finished with more forced punts than Lofton.

3. Curtis Lofton forced only 3 Punts last year, this is no surprise as Lofton allowed 14 conversions to only 5 stops.

Forced FG(Higher the Better).

1. Sean Weatherspoon, Curtis Lofton, Spencer Adkins and Stephen Nicholas all forced 1 FG each after a successful 3rd down stop.

1st Downs/TA%(Lower the Better):

1. Sean Weatherspoon allowed first downs on only 26% of the TA, good enough for 1st among LB and second among the whole team.

2. Stephen Nicholas allowed first downs on only 27% of the TA. He is probably the most underrated Falcons LB. Mike Nolan should probably increase his load next year if he is healthy.

3. Curtis Lofton allowed first downs on 32% of the TA, most by a LB.

Sean Weatherspoon was the leading play maker among LB with 14 stops on the third downs. Lofton on the other hand was a liability on Third down pass coverage allowing team leading 14 third down conversions. I guess it’s fair to say, Mike Nolan probably was not impressed with Curtis Lofton's Third down coverage credentials and thus the two down LB tag.

Name	Snaps	TA	Rec	Ct%	Yd	TD	3rd Stop	3rd Conv	3rd Stop %	1st Downs	1st Downs/TA	1st Downs in Scoring Drives	Forced Punt	Forced FG
Curtis Lofton	1008	85	65	76.4	550	5	5	14	26.3%	28	32.9%	21	3	1
Sean Weatherspoon	998	90	65	72.2	558	2	14	10	58.3%	24	26.6%	15	13	1
Stephen Nicholas	286	22	15	68.8	103	0	6	4	60%	6	27.2%	4	5	1
Mike Peterson	218	12	8	66	66	1	1	1	50%	2	16.6%	2	0	0
Spencer Adkins	35	3	3	100	15	0	2	1	66%	1	0%	0	1	1

Third Down Stop %(Higher the Better):

The credit for 3rd down stops is given only if the player had a direct contribution (PD, Interception, Tackle and FF) to the stop.

1. Sean Weatherspoon was a force on stopping 3rd downs(14 stops) with a 3rd down stop % of 58.9 even after playing more than 90% snaps.

3. Nicholas had more 3rd down stops in coverage than Curtis Lofton even though he played just 28% of total snaps.

Forced to Punt(Higher the Better).

2. Stephen Nicholas forced other teams to punt 5 times last season despite playing just 28% of the snaps. He finished with more forced punts than Lofton.

3. Curtis Lofton forced only 3 Punts last year, this is no surprise as Lofton allowed 14 conversions to only 5 stops.

Forced FG(Higher the Better).

1. Sean Weatherspoon, Curtis Lofton, Spencer Adkins and Stephen Nicholas all forced 1 FG each after a successful 3rd down stop.

1st Downs/TA%(Lower the Better):

1. Sean Weatherspoon allowed first downs on only 26% of the TA, good enough for 1st among LB and second among the whole team.

2. Stephen Nicholas allowed first downs on only 27% of the TA. He is probably the most underrated Falcons LB. Mike Nolan should probably increase his load next year if he is healthy.

3. Curtis Lofton allowed first downs on 32% of the TA, most by a LB.

Mike Nolan is Falcons DC

Vishnu_falcon — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 20:00:02 -0000

Mike Nolan is Falcons DC

Victor Cruz Vs Falcons Secondary: Matchup Primer

Vishnu_falcon — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 16:23:36 -0000

Victor Cruz had a great year especially towards end of the season; Cruz now has all attention going in to the playoff game. Before we get in to Cruz Vs Falcons Secondary Match up, lets dig deeper in to his coverage numbers and how Giants have used him in the regular season. These numbers were gathered after watching the Victor Cruz plays on NFL Rewind.

How the Giants used Victor Cruz

Victor Cruz was very effective when playing in slot and play action pass. Cruz can escape the tackles and can go all the way to the endzone..

1. Slot: Cruz very effective in the slot when matched up against Nickel Back or Safety. Most of the big plays and Yards after Catch yards were in the slot. He had multiple TD because of missed tackles.

2. Play Action Pass: He has been very effective in Play action pass for Giants, most of the play action passes were on the Right side and few on the Left Side. If Eli Manning had time to throw, he looked for Play action pass to Cruz.

Coverage Details and Matchup

Coverage	TA	Comp	Comp%	Yards	YAC	YPA	TD
RCB	21	14	66.60%	199	32	9.47	3
LCB	33	17	51.50%	312	146	9.45	1
NB	35	25	71.40%	566	214	16.17	3
FS	8	6	75%	82	31	8.2	0
SS	11	9	81.80%	223	106	20.2	2
LB	14	11	78.70%	154	73	11	0
Total	122	82	67.80%	1536	602	12.59	9

Note: These numbers show who was covering Victor Cruz in given play, not necessarily who tackled or missed a tackle. Also it's not an indication which position he lined up because based on coverage scheme and route the coverage matchups change.

Key Observations and Matchups:

1. Cruz was not very effective on the Right Side when covered by a LCB(Left Corner Back). Cruz had lowest completion percentage (51.5 %), lowest YPA and just one long 74 Yard TD given up in Dallas game. This is a good match up and an advantage for Atlanta, Cruz needs to step up his game when matched up against Grimes (one of the best corners in the NFC) if he wants to do some damage.

2. Cruz was not very effective on the Left Side when covered by RCB except when covered by Nnamdi Asomugha who gave up two TDs to Cruz. He had second lowest YPA of 9.47 and second lowest completion percentage when covered by RCB. This probably is a good matchup for Atlanta, though Cruz might get a big play on Dunta Robinson.

3. Cruz is best when he is matched up with a Nickel Back; he gained most yards and most YAC when covered by Nickel Back. This is a favorable matchup for Giants, as Cruz will be matched up against Franks or Chris Owens. However, if Falcons can move Grimes to Nickel it might be effective. 49ers shuffled Carlos Rogers between LCB and NB to shadow Cruz and made him a nonfactor in that game.

4. Cruz when covered by SS had a mixed year, when covered by top safeties he was a non factor, however he had success with lower tier safeties like Kurt Coleman of Eagles who missed an easy tackle for long TD. Its important for the SS to lay the wood on Cruz or else Cruz will be in the end zone. This is favorable match up for Falcons if William Moore is healthy enough to play. Moore needs to continue hitting like a truck and not miss tackles.

Bottom-line:

Advantage Cruz: His strength is against Nickel Backs and Falcons are weakest in the Nickel Back position.

Falcons can contain Cruz if Grimes can shadow Cruz or Franks and Chris Owens step up big time along with a very good pass rush. Cruz can also help out falcons if he continues dropping easy passes. One thing Falcons can't afford is missed tackles against Cruz.

How the Giants used Victor Cruz

Victor Cruz was very effective when playing in slot and play action pass. Cruz can escape the tackles and can go all the way to the endzone..

Coverage Details and Matchup

Coverage	TA	Comp	Comp%	Yards	YAC	YPA	TD
RCB	21	14	66.60%	199	32	9.47	3
LCB	33	17	51.50%	312	146	9.45	1
NB	35	25	71.40%	566	214	16.17	3
FS	8	6	75%	82	31	8.2	0
SS	11	9	81.80%	223	106	20.2	2
LB	14	11	78.70%	154	73	11	0
Total	122	82	67.80%	1536	602	12.59	9

Key Observations and Matchups:

Bottom-line:

Advantage Cruz: His strength is against Nickel Backs and Falcons are weakest in the Nickel Back position.

Falcons 2011 First Half Pass Coverage Report:Grimes and DR Edition

Vishnu_falcon — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 21:07:12 -0000

The Falcons Pass defense currently ranks 19th in Yards/G after 8 games, however the pass defense rank improved from 28th after first 4 weeks. The Yards/Game and Points/Game took a big dip in the second quarter despite facing 3 passing teams, which rank in top 10. Lets jump in to the post to cover Brent Grimes and DR numbers for the first half of the season. The numbers doesn't include QB thrown away balls and two screens (Devin Hester's 52 Yard gain lined up against Brent Grimes and Jeremy Maclin's TD screen when lined up against DR.). The numbers are divided in to Week 1-4,Week 5-7 and Week 9 against the hapless Colts.

Brent Grimes:

Brent Grimes or shall we say Optimus Grimes, is clearly the MVP in Pass coverage for the fist half of the season. Below are the first half numbers for Brent Grimes.

	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yds	YPA	LG	TD	In	PD
Weeks 1-4	18	9	50%	117	6.5	52	1	0	5
Weeks 5-7	18	10	55%	141	7.83	57	1	1	4
Week 9	6	2	33%	18	3	15	0	0	0
Total	42	21	50%	276	6.57	57	2	1	9

Key Observations:

1. Grimes probably had the best start to the season among all the Falcon players, considering how much was made out in the local media about Grimey holding up.

2. Grimes leads the whole team in PD with 9 passes defended in the first half. William Moore and Kelvin Hayden are distant second with 4 PD each.

3. Grimes is the most Targeted CB for the first half with 42 TA, however DR was most Targeted CB in the first quarter.

4. Brent Grimes had given up only 84 Yards from week 5-7,if the 57 Yard trick play TD to Calvin Johnson.

5. Interceptions this year are down with only 1 interception, the numbers could have been better if Grimes Hadn't dropped two easy interceptions.

Bottom Line:

Grimes is a playmaker, the more you throw at him the more he jumps in the air and makes the opposing QB's pay.

Dunta Robinson:

Dunta Robinson had the worst First Quarter of the season among all the Defensive Backs. He turned around things to move from worst DB to best DB in the second quarter. Dunta Robinson was probably under more pressure than any other player on the team to start producing after first 4 weeks. If the slide had continued, who knows he could have become a FA next year.

Weeks	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yds	YPA	LG	TD	In	PD
Weeks 1-4	22	17	77.20%	232	10.5	43	1	0	2
Weeks 5-7	7	4	57.40%	45	6.42	21	0	0	0
Week 9	2	1	50.00%	9	4.5	9	0	0	0
Total	31	22	71%	286	9.22	43	1	0	2

Key Observations:

1. DR last year played mostly man-to-man coverage last season, however he is playing more Zone coverage this year. In the first 4 games, Dunta was clearly not comfortable in the zone either because of communication issues or being out of position giving up large chunks of yards.

2. DR gave up 232 yards in the first quarter, most yards given up by a Defensive Back, however he gave up just 45 yards against Packers, Panthers and Lions combined.

3. DR was targeted team leading 22 times from week 1-4. However, from the weeks 5-7 and week 9 he was the least targeted CB.

4. Dunta Robinsons 6.42 YPA in the Weeks 5-7 was the best among the Defensive Backs.

5. Dunta Robinson allowed 77% completion in the first quarter of the season followed by 57% in Weeks 5-7 and 50 % in week 9.

Bottom Line: Dunta Robinson would never be the guy to grab lot interceptions. However,DR is more effective as a coverage guy who is not targeted much for blanketing the receivers.

Discuss what you think about our top 2 CB tandem and use the above stats to make your own Conclusion.

Brent Grimes:

Brent Grimes or shall we say Optimus Grimes, is clearly the MVP in Pass coverage for the fist half of the season. Below are the first half numbers for Brent Grimes.

	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yds	YPA	LG	TD	In	PD
Weeks 1-4	18	9	50%	117	6.5	52	1	0	5
Weeks 5-7	18	10	55%	141	7.83	57	1	1	4
Week 9	6	2	33%	18	3	15	0	0	0
Total	42	21	50%	276	6.57	57	2	1	9

Key Observations:

1. Grimes probably had the best start to the season among all the Falcon players, considering how much was made out in the local media about Grimey holding up.

2. Grimes leads the whole team in PD with 9 passes defended in the first half. William Moore and Kelvin Hayden are distant second with 4 PD each.

3. Grimes is the most Targeted CB for the first half with 42 TA, however DR was most Targeted CB in the first quarter.

4. Brent Grimes had given up only 84 Yards from week 5-7,if the 57 Yard trick play TD to Calvin Johnson.

5. Interceptions this year are down with only 1 interception, the numbers could have been better if Grimes Hadn't dropped two easy interceptions.

Bottom Line:

Grimes is a playmaker, the more you throw at him the more he jumps in the air and makes the opposing QB's pay.

Dunta Robinson:

Weeks	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yds	YPA	LG	TD	In	PD
Weeks 1-4	22	17	77.20%	232	10.5	43	1	0	2
Weeks 5-7	7	4	57.40%	45	6.42	21	0	0	0
Week 9	2	1	50.00%	9	4.5	9	0	0	0
Total	31	22	71%	286	9.22	43	1	0	2

Key Observations:

2. DR gave up 232 yards in the first quarter, most yards given up by a Defensive Back, however he gave up just 45 yards against Packers, Panthers and Lions combined.

3. DR was targeted team leading 22 times from week 1-4. However, from the weeks 5-7 and week 9 he was the least targeted CB.

4. Dunta Robinsons 6.42 YPA in the Weeks 5-7 was the best among the Defensive Backs.

5. Dunta Robinson allowed 77% completion in the first quarter of the season followed by 57% in Weeks 5-7 and 50 % in week 9.

Bottom Line: Dunta Robinson would never be the guy to grab lot interceptions. However,DR is more effective as a coverage guy who is not targeted much for blanketing the receivers.

Discuss what you think about our top 2 CB tandem and use the above stats to make your own Conclusion.

Breaking Down the Tape: OL and Sack Woes

Vishnu_falcon — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 23:46:39 -0000

The Falcons OL being horrible, is an understatement after first 3 weeks. First, the bad news, whole of the OL stunk with out any exceptions in first 3 weeks. The good news, the problem seems to be winning one on one match-ups which hopefully is very fixable.Falcons offense is an offense in transition, however there were only 3 sacks(more than 4 Sec) which were result of Matt Ryan waiting for some one to get open down field. After watching the tape for first 3 weeks I have highlighted couple of sacks(which were not fumbles), I will cover the fumbles and Interceptions in another post. Jump right in to breakdown the tape and stats for the OL for first 3 weeks.

Sack 1:ATL Vs PHI Q2 - 5:30

Sack by: Trent Cole

Sack given up: Sam Baker.

Sack Cause:Justin Blalock.

Time:3-4 sec

This is a sack which will go against Sam Baker from a stat Perspective but the actual cause of this sack is Justin Blalock.

Sack 1:ATL Vs PHI Q2(5:30) :Scrimmage/Formation:

Sam Baker is lined up against Trent Cole,Mike Patterson(98) is lined up against Justin Blalock(63), Matt Ryan with Jason Snelling in the Back Field.

Click on the Photo to Enlarge.

Sack 1:ATL Vs PHI Q2(5:30) :Patterson Rushing Blalock.

Patterson ran over Justin Blalock and Sam Baker wrapped up Trent Cole. Trent Cole is behind Sam Baker in the Photo below. With Patterson rushing towards Ryan, Ryan tries to move forward.

Click on the Photo to Enlarge.

Sack 1:ATL Vs PHI Q2(5:30) :Blalock Wreckage

Blalock is on the ground and Patterson Flushes Matt Ryan out in to the arms of Trent Cole. This sack will go against Sam Baker for Trent Cole. But it is clear that Blalock was the cause for this sack. This is another case where stats might not be accurate if you just consider who sacked the QB.

Click on the Photo to Enlarge.

Sack 2:ATL @TB Q4(4:30) :Ball in the Red zone

Sack By: B Price.

Sack Given up: Justin Blalock

Sack Cause:Justin Blalock.

Time:2 Sec

This is a straight forward sack for Brian Price just moving past Justin Blalock. This was a critical sack which pushed Falcons out of the TD and forced a Field Goal.

Sack 2:ATL @TB Q4(4:30) :Scrimmage/Formation

This is a simple formation with Turner in the back field and 3 Reciever+TE. TB rushed 4, which is one on one matchup for the OL. Brian Price lined up against Justin Blalock.

Click on the Photo to Enlarge.

Sack 2:ATL @TB Q4(4:30) :B.Price past Blalock.

Justin Blalock couldn't hold on to Brian Price. Turner was almost open and in a split second Matt could have dumped it off to wide open Michael Turner. This sack was bad because the line could not hold on for 2 Seconds.

Click on the Photo to Enlarge.

The two plays have Blalock as the problem but in other plays every one in the OL including Tyson Clabo had given up sacks. I will cover sack fumble,one caused by Baker and other by Tyson Clabo in another post.

The following are the stats for OL including the cause for the sack. There are no Half sacks,everything here is marked as 1 sack against a player. Sack Cause is counted for the plays where a Player caused a sack given up by other players.

Player	Sacks (Cause)	Sacks(Given up)	Sacks(Caused by Others)
Sam Baker	0	1	2
Justin Blalock	2	1	0
Tyson Clabo	0	3	0
Garret Reynolds	0	2	1
Joe Hawley	1	1	0
Todd McClure	0	1	0

Almost all of the sacks were 2-3 Seconds, which suggests that scheme might not be a bigger issue than thought. How ever, it baffles me that the OL cant hold up for more than 2 seconds. Is it because of the fitness level of the OL because of the weird Off-season and lack of practice. Discuss other possibilities which might be causing a break down across the whole OL.

Breaking Down the Tape: Screen Pass Defense

Vishnu_falcon — Sun, 25 Sep 2011 04:50:16 -0000

Falcons have given up big plays with screen passes early in the season, three of those screens resulting in a TD. This is a copycat league and the Falcons need to get this fixed, as more screen plays might be coming throughout the season. The screen pass defense was much better last week except for Jeremy Maclin's TD. I have broken down the Maclin Touch down play in to 5 phases as it unfolded.

1. Scrimmage/Formation:

Jeremy Maclin lined up far left on Dunta, Kelvin Hayden lined up on Jason Avant near right and James sanders deep lined up around 24 Yard line in the middle. In this play Kelvin Hayden was Blitzing, leaving Dunta Robinson on 2 guys with the help of Sanders back deep.

Click on Photo to Enlarge.

1. Catching the Pass:

Vick threw a quick pass to Jeremy Maclin before Kelvin Hayden could reach Vick. Jason Avant moved in front to block Dunta ,Sanders moves to the right but stays deep on 23 yard line. This was the opportunity for Sanders to move towards the ball and help out Dunta Robinson.

Click on Photo to Enlarge.

3. Tale of two Holds:

Sanders is still on 23 yard line as if he had a Brian Freeze. But by this time Jason Peters moved right in front of Sanders to block him. But this play should have ended with a flag right here, Dunta was held from back by Avant and Spoon was held by Eagles Center. The officiating was horrible for this game would be understatement

Click on Photo to Enlarge.

4. Block on Sanders:

After Sanders stood still on 23 yard line for ever, Jason Peters comes in front and knocks him off. Sanders had a bad game against Eagles, step or two slower and lost at times resulting in 3 big plays through out the game. He can get benefit of doubt, as this was his first game. I would not be surprised if DeCoud gets little more playing time than the Eagles game.

Click on Photo to Enlarge.

5. Bigger Hold

Look at the hold on the spoon in the photo bellow. It's almost a Horse collar hold. This was the last chance to throw a flag by the Zebras. I guess the referees tried everything they could to help Eagles win this game. Hope this doesn't happen for rest of the season.

Click on Photo to Enlarge.

I am not a Coach to know if there was a communication problem or not, but I think its Zebras and Sanders gave up this big play. From a stat perspective this play will go against DR, in this case I have to agree with people who dont rely only on stats.What say you?

1. Scrimmage/Formation:

Click on Photo to Enlarge.

1. Catching the Pass:

Click on Photo to Enlarge.

3. Tale of two Holds:

Click on Photo to Enlarge.

4. Block on Sanders:

Click on Photo to Enlarge.

5. Bigger Hold

Click on Photo to Enlarge.

Breaking down the Tape: Falcons Red zone Offense.

Vishnu_falcon — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 22:33:11 -0000

Eagles came to town with their elite Dream Team Pass defense. Last year Eagles gave up 31 Passing Touch downs (Falcons gave up 28 TD). This offseason Eagles went and added two elite corners who can create match up problems. But Falcons were 5/5 in the redzone, four of those Touchdowns came from passing plays. How did the Falcons managed to do it? Jump right in to 3 of those Red zone formations and routes with pictures.

In the last few days, I am guilty of making fun of MM, for running down the gut every time. How ever, in the last game the little genius in the MM woke up and outcoached the Eagles. Did I just say MM Out coached the Eagles?

Touch Down 1 (Roddy White 1st Qtr 2:51) :

I don’t remember seeing this formation by falcons before in the red zone. This formation had 4 Recievers(3 WR+TG) on the left and Julio Jones on the right with an empty back field.

Roddy white ran a cross route right past Nnamdi, Coleman (safety) moved with Roddy to cover him. While Nnamdi was in an island lost with no one to cover. Roddy beat the Safety Coleman for a TD. JJ was double covered.

Touch Down 2 (Tony G 0:50 2nd Qtr):

TD Formation & Route:

Matt Ryan in Shot Gun formation with Roddy White , Harry Douglas and Tony Gonzalez on the right. Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers on the left. The Eagles had to single cover either Tony Gonzalez or Julio Jones. This was another good formation, which exposed the weakness in Eagles Safety and Line backing units. The best part of the route was Quizz matched up with Nnamdi Asomugha , this makes MM look like genius or the Eagles DC clueless.

TD Play:

Julio Jones was doubled on this play and still managed to be wide open. Nnamdi was stuck in an island with Jacquizz Rodgers, while Safety Page was mugging Tony Gaonzalez before the catch. The referee’s decided not to throw the flag for pass interference but anyways Tony Gonzalez went ahead and grabbed the TD. Roddy White was double teamed and Harry Douglas took away DRC with him.

Touch Down 3 (Tony G 12:11 3rd Qtr):

TD Formation:

This play was a play action pass after running Michael Turner up the middle so many times in the game. Turner and Ovie in the Back field in an I formation, TG on the left , Roddy and Michael Plamer on the right. Nnamdi is deep as a safety and Palmer on the far right with Asnate Samuels leaving Roddy White on safety Coleman. TG lined up on Safety Page. Nnamadi had to pick either TG or Roddy White to help out safeties with Double Coverage. The LB in the box ready to stop Turner for the running play.

TD Play:

TG went right past Eagles Safety Page , Michael Palmer took Asante Samuels with him on the right and Roddy white ran with Coleman to end zone. Nnamdi initially jumped to cover Roddy but ended up in the middle covering none. TG in the redzone in single coverage with a Safety is matchup he will win most of the times. This was a well designed play to catch the Eagles off guard with a play action pass.

The other two formations, which resulted in TD, were also well-designed plays .Matt called those plays in No Huddle to perfection. Andy Reid has always outcoached us in the recent past, Its good to see that MM outcoached the Eagles Defense with 100% success in red zone. I think this is a step in the right Direction for MM. What say you?

Touch Down 1 (Roddy White 1st Qtr 2:51) :

I don’t remember seeing this formation by falcons before in the red zone. This formation had 4 Recievers(3 WR+TG) on the left and Julio Jones on the right with an empty back field.

Touch Down 2 (Tony G 0:50 2nd Qtr):

TD Formation & Route:

TD Play:

Touch Down 3 (Tony G 12:11 3rd Qtr):

TD Formation:

TD Play:

2010 Falcons Defense Pass Coverage by Numbers: 3rd Down Conversions.

Vishnu_falcon — Sat, 10 Sep 2011 06:29:58 -0000

The biggest knock against Falcons pass defense last year was third down conversions in addition to the insane amount of yards allowed. The Falcons Defense 3rd down pct was 39 %(79 out of 201 Attempts) good for 22nd rank in the league, however the pass defense accounted for 68%(54/79) of total 3rd down conversions allowed. Depending on whom you listen to, the blame for this falls on Stephen Nicholas, Thomas DeCoud, Dunta Robinson,Brent Grimes and Chris Owens etc. With out blaming anyone, lets dive in to the Pass coverage stats (except the NB which will be a separate post) focused on 3rd down conversions, 3rd down stops and total 1st downs from 2010. These numbers are from the notes I took from last year on pass coverage. Though this post is focused on 1st downs and 3rd down conversion, I have included other numbers like YPA, Yards, % complete as a reference for discussion. Please feel free to use the stats and come up with your own conclusions and discuss.

All stats are for 2010 Regular Season Falcons Pass Coverage only.

Top CB Tandem (BG & DR):

No	Name	Snaps	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yds	YPA	3rd Stops	3rd Converted	3rd Stop %	1st Downs	1st Downs/TA	1st Downs in Scoring Drives.
20	Brent Grimes	987	120	61	50.8	722	6.01	9	14	39.30%	39	32.50%	17
23	Dunta Robinson	849	81	50	61.7	546	6.7	8	4	66.70%	27	33%	12
	Total		201	111	55%	1268	6.3	17	18	48.90%	66	32%	29

Third Down Stop %(Higher the Better): The credit for 3rd down stops is given only if the player had a direct contribution (PD, Interception, Tackle and FF) to the stop.

1. Dunta Robinson comes out on top with a 3rd down stop rate of 66.7%(allowed only 4 conversions out of 12 Attempts). DR 23 accounted for just 7%(4/54) of the total Falcons pass defense 3rd down conversions. These are solid numbers considering he was matched up against the number 1 receiver most of the times.

2. Brent Grimes has a stop rate of 39.3%; this is not surprising considering he is aggressively going after the ball. His interceptions and role as a playmaker compensates for his poor 3rd down stop rate. BG accounted for 25% (14/54) of the total Falcons passing 3rd down conversions.

3. DR and BG combined account for 1/3rd of Total Falcons 3rd down conversions (18/54). This is not bad considering that the top two Corner Backs are covering the top receivers.

1st Downs /Total Attempts (TA)%(Lower the Better):

1. Considering the 1st downs to the TA, only 33%(27/81) of Passes thrown at DR's receivers' went for 1st downs. He accounted for 14% (27/183) of the total Falcons 1st downs compared to 7% of total Falcons 3rd down conversions. The Quarterbacks are willing to take a chance with him on the early downs than the 3rd down.

2. Brent Grimes comes out on top considering 1st downs /TA, only 32% of the passes thrown his way went for 1st down. He accounted for 21%(39/183) of the total Falcons 1st downs compared to 25 %(14/54) of total falcons 3rd down conversions. BG is more effective on early downs than the 3rd down situations.

3. DR and BG together allowed 1st downs on only 32% of the TA. They allowed 36%(66/183) of the total Falcons first downs.

Safeties:

No	Name	Snaps	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yds	YPA	3rd Stops	3rd Converted	3rd Stop %	1st Downs	1st Downs/TA	1st Downs in Scoring DR
28	Thomas DeCoud	920	36	25	69.4	280	7.7	2	0	100%	7	19.40%	3
	Erik Coleman	149	4	4	100	57	14.25	0	3	0%	3	75%	1
25	William Moore	913	45	30	66.7	363	8.06	4	7	36.30%	13	28.80%	7
	Total		85	59		700	8.23	6	10	37%	23		11

Third Down Stop %(Higher the Better): The credit for 3rd down stops is given only if the player had a direct contribution (PD, Interception, Tackle and FF) to the stop.

1. Thomas DeCoud actually improved on the Pass coverage last year though he wasn't explosive playmaker by creating turnovers. He had 3rd down stop rate of 100%(2 stops/2 Attempts). Thomas DeCoud was definitely not the reason for allowing 3rd down conversions.

2. William Moore had a stop rate of 36.3%(4 Stops/11 Attempts) on 3rd downs. William Moore 3rd down stop rate takes a hit because of his aggressive style similar to Brent Grimes. He accounted for 12% (7/54) of the total Falcons Passing 3rd down conversions.

3. Thomas DeCoud and William Moore both combined for only 12 % of the total Falcons Passing Defense 3rd down conversion. The Solid coverage by TD 28 combined with aggressive style of WM25 gives falcons a nice balance in the backfield.

1st Downs /Total Attempts (TA)%(Lower the Better):

1. Considering the 1st downs to the TA, only 19.4%(7/36) of Passes thrown at receiver covered by TD28 went for 1st downs. TD28 gave up a meager 3% (7/183) of the total Falcons 1st downs. TD 28 was pretty solid in coverage except for the 83 Yard TD against PHI in week 6.

2. William Moore accounted for only 7%(13/183) of total Falcons 1st downs. Similar to Grimes he is better on early downs than the 3rd downs. It would be interesting to see if Sanders plays SS in 3rd down coverage situations.

3. Both Safeties accounted for 10.9% of the total falcons first downs.

Line Backers:

No	Name	Snaps	TA	Rec	% Ct	Yds	YPA	3rd Stops	3rd Converted	3rd Stop %	1st Downs	1st Downs/TA	1st Downs in Scoring DR
54	Stephen Nicholas	674	43	35	81.4	265	6.16	9	4	69.20%	10	23.20%	3
53	Mike Peterson	484	29	24	82.8	223	7.6	0	4	0	10	34%	5
56	Sean Weatherspoon	429	35	31	88.6	365	10.4	3	4	42%	18	51%	7
50	Curtis Lofton	958	45	39	86.7	366	8.13	4	4	50%	19	42.20%	10
			152	129		1219	7.96	16	16	50%	57	37.25%	25

Third Down Stop %(Higher the Better): The credit for 3rd down stops is given only if the player had a direct contribution (PD, Interception, Tackle and FF) to the stop.

1. Stephen Nicholas was by far the best LB in 3rd down stops. Stephen Nicholas had a 3rd down stop rate of 69.2%(9 stops /13 Attempts)

2. Mike Peterson with stop rate of 0% and Sean Weatherspoon with 42% stop rate finished as bottom 2 Linebackers in the 3rd down coverage. Curtis Lofton had a stop rate of 50% on 3rd downs; Lofton was burned by running backs like Ray Rice on third down situations.

3. All the LB combined for 29%(16/54) of the third downs. The middle of the field is a definite problem for the Falcons. Hopefully with Healthy Spoon and Lofton will make these numbers better.

1st Downs /Total Attempts (TA)%(Lower the Better).

1. Stephen Nicholas had the lowest YPA and the lowest 1st Downs/TA (23%) among Linebackers. Spoon had the highest YPA (10.4 YPA) and the highest 1st downs/TA %( 51%).

Stephen Nicholas was the best LB in the Pass coverage last year for the Falcons. The LB allowed almost the same Yardage as our top 2 CB's combined, this makes the defense vulnerable in the middle. Sean Weatherspoon was the worst in coverage last year, most likely because of the Injury.

My Final Crack at the 53 man Roster.

Vishnu_falcon — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 14:46:56 -0000

My take on the final 53 roster after watching the PS games. What say you?

QB: Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, John Parker Wilson (3)
RB: Michael Turner, Jason Snelling, Jacquizz Rodgers,Antone Smith (4)
FB: Ovie Mughelli (1)
WR: Roddy White, Julio Jones, Harry Douglas,Kerry Meier, Eric Weems (5)
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Reggie Kelly, Michael Palmer (3)
OL: Sam Baker, Justin Blalock, Todd McClure, Tyson Clabo, Joe Hawley, Mike Johnson, Garrett Reynolds, Will Svitek, Brett Romberg (9)
DL: John Abraham, Peria Jerry, Corey Peters, Kroy Biermann, Lawrence Sidbury, Ray Edwards, Vance Walker, Jonathan Babineaux, Trey Lewis, Cliff Mathews (10)
LB: Mike Peterson, Sean Weatherspoon, Coy Wire, Stephen Nicholas, Curtis Lofton, Akeem Dent (6)
DB: Dunta Robinson, Brent Grimes, Christopher Owens, Dominique Franks, Thomas DeCoud, Shann Schillinger, James Sanders, William Moore, Kelvin Hayden (9)
Specialists: Matt Bosher, Matt Bryant, Joe Zelenka (3)

My take on the final 53 roster after watching the PS games. What say you?

SBNation.com User Blog: Vishnu_falcon

Three Keys to Winning a Play off game

1. It is the Defense, Stupid:

2. Take an Early lead and Score at least 21 Points/Game:

3. Do not lose on the Turnover Margin:

1. It is the Defense, Stupid:

2. Take an Early lead and Score at least 21 Points/Game:

3. Do not lose on the Turnover Margin:

John Abraham Arrested

John Abraham Arrested

Nominee for Weekly Putrid Punditry

Nominee for Weekly Putrid Punditry

Falcons Offense Becoming Elite

Can Dirk Koetter run a Balanced and Successful Falcons Offense?

Samuel's Pick 6 at Friday Night Lights.

Samuel's Pick 6 at Friday Night Lights.

First Week of Training Camp: Notes from Flowery Branch

Falcons Minicamp: Day 3 Notes From Flowery Branch

Falcons Minicamp: Day 1 Notes From Flowery Branch.

Help Needed to pick a Topic.

Choose one topic

Falcons 3rd down Offense.

Falcons offensive play calling Balance

Stats on YAC and Number of attempts to WR in stride

Julio Jones: Good bad and Ugly from 2011

Matt Ryan:Good Bad and Ugly from 2011

Sean Weatherspoon is PFF's Prototype Will LB

Sean Weatherspoon is PFF's Prototype Will LB

Third Down Pass Defense: Mike Nolan Edition

Third Down Pass Conversion Allowed:

Where do you think the most significant improvement on 3rd downs will come from?

Defensive Line.

Improved Secondary with addition of Samuel.

Over all Defense because of Mike Nolan's Pressure packages.

No improvement, Mike Nolan Can't fix this Defense.

No improvement, ATL doesn't have the right players.

Third Down Sacks: Mike Nolan Edition

Third Down Sacks

Where do you think Falcons will Rank in the NFL on 3rd down Sacks?

Top 5, Mike Nolan will work his Magic.

Top 6-10

Between 11-20, Falcons don't have the right Players

Bottom 10, Nolan will be a bust in ATL.

Bottom 10, Falcons don't have the right players.

QB listed for voting in NFL 2012 Top 100

Dilbert and Matt Ryan

Who Really are the Falcons?

Clutch time Drives: Game with in 1 score for either of the teams(+ or - 7 points)

Team

Off Drives

TD Scored%

TD Scored % Rank

TD Allowed%

TD Allowed% Rank

Net Grade

Net Grade Rank

Drives with 10+ point Lead:

Trailing by10 Points or more Drives :

My First and Final Mock Draft for 2012

Samuel to Falcons 3 Yr 18.5 M

First and Ten: The Agony of Michael Turner

Player

Off

TC

SC

SC %

Sc%Rk

NP

NP %

NP%Rk

Off Run%

Successful Carries : Key Observations

Negative Plays: Key Observations

Off Run%: Key Observations

Falcons 3rd Down Pass Defense: Dunta Robinson Edition

Making Sense of Falcons Free Agency moves

Falcons 3rd Down Pass Defense: LB and Curtis Lofton Edition

Mike Nolan is Falcons DC

Victor Cruz Vs Falcons Secondary: Matchup Primer

Falcons 2011 First Half Pass Coverage Report:Grimes and DR Edition