I have two things to say:

a) Don't fret if the Blazers have a 4-game losing streak to go to 7-6
b) Because, I wouldn't be surprised to see them run off with victories 12 out of the next 14 games

As I do each year, I try to predict each game, just to see what our playoff chances look like, and to give me some perspective when we hit a rough patch. (It also helps me pick my 1/8 season ticket games)..We could be at 19-8 about a month from now. I pick this stretch of the season because it could bring two really good wiunning streaks. After that it gets more .500-ish.

See the game by game breakdown of the games ahead, and weigh in on the poll, after the jump..

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Simple question: Who is This Year’s Most Irreplaceable Blazer

I don’t want to jinx us even talking about this subject, but… I seriously disagree that the premise in another post that any ONE injury would decimate this squad. Sure, some might be tougher than others to fill, but with our depth, I think we can withstand injuries better than other teams… OK, so think about it, and vote, or read my take after the jump.

Which Blazer would be most difficult to replace?

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OK, maybe I'm crazy.  I've been called worse...  But ever since I started thinking about fit, I've been obsessed with this idea:  BRoy should be the Blazers 6th man, an award he'd win yearly.

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We're young and talented in a very deep and experienced league.  Enjoy our development, and be patient.  Our time will come.

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OK, so I have young kids, so my mind has been warped (well, that, and... well, never mind).  But it occurred to me while watching Rebecca interview Blazers Prez Larry ("this is just the first" in a series of playoff years!!) Miller tonite, that our Blazers (and our hero, one Brandon Roy) could be likened to Harry Potter and his friend's titanic struggles against Evil (the Rockets for now, but ultimately, of course, the L*kers) and the Dark Load Voldemort (Yao for now, but really, who else could play the role but Kobe?).

This year is Book One. 

Prelude: Before the infant Harry (our Blazers) even has (ok, I know I should say 'have' here, but I'm done with that, OK?) thoughts of greatness, Lord Voldemort and his army (L*kers in game 1) places a scar on him (blowout, Greg injured).

Early Chapters  (regular season): The Blazers (especially your Blazer rookies Batum, Rudy, Greg)  (Harry and his friends), just start to figure out their magical powers...  They face a few tests and figure, hey we're pretty good! 

(Book Gets Serious, Chapters 5ish) (Game 1):  In your introduction to the big time, you got smoked.  Malfoy (Yao) knocked you down and laughed at you, and before the train even left the station, you felt like you didn't belong.  We all wondered how, or if, you'd survive.

As the year (series) progresses, our young hero(es) find that, though they are strong, there are many villans and other instructors who have many mysterious (some of the calls), dark (Yao 9-9), arts (Ar(ts)test)... and heretofore unknown powers. (Houston casting a 'petrify' spell on our offense in Game 1, e.g.)

Chapter 10 or so: (Game 2): You scored a major victory, as you stood up for yourself, you manned up, you gained the respect of your peers, and you laid out a blueprint for future success... 

The sub-plot and moral of our story is that while you can study moves and countermoves in class (film), until you find yourself in a real battle (the playoffs) you can't truly test yourself: to see if you have truly learned all you think you have been taught. (grasshopper)

So far, I think our students are way ahead of schedule, and I can't wait for the rest of the novel, and the entire, gold-bound series to play itself out.

I have to say, as a long-time and forever advocate of fast-break, full-court D basketball, I am THRILLED to have Rebecca tonite on Comcast unveil Nate's

"20 second rule"

which he has used (coincidence?  I don't' think so) during the Blazers 4-game 20+ plus point blowout streak.

The rule is: all players have to cross mid-court before the clock reaches 20.  For those of you who are math-challenged, that's only 4 seconds after our home team obtains possession off a made or missed possession by the opponent.

This is a BRILLIANT move by Nate to instill in his team the required mindset to become a punishing fast-break team.   As I  think I said in my first post, it's fast break basketball, fueled by team D, that wins championships. 

To see Nate use this young, deep, athletic squad to punish opponents with a fast break offense is, IMO, a thrilling development.

As I said in my prediction post (15-9 (check!), "sneak by Utah in the last week to gain third seed" - close!), this team has a chance to go far - not in a 2-3 years distant a future opening window - but NOW!  THIS! YEAR! 

I'm telling you, I've seen it before...the last 4 games have made me harken back to the beautiful basketball played by the '86 Celtics....when Walton came off the bench to spell McHale, and when Bird passing to Walton to (hell, anybody) was a guaranteed 2. 

Most telling?  The team D.  Batum is becoming a shut-down D monster.  He was, IMO, the MVP tonite, taking Durant completely out of the game.  Joel is having a career D year.  LaMarcus deflecs a pass a game.  Greg - immense presence down low...  Blake- doing EVerything..  In short: the D is just jelling beautifully, at just the right time. 

But I like to think it's al because of one simple change Nate made, deep in the mindset of his players: the 20-second rule.

Go Blazers! 

Get Home Court! 

Win a series - make a city proud

Win 2?  Shock the world

Win 3 (and face the Celtics in the finals?)  (To me, a long time C;s fan..) priceless

Why? Becauseif my old town C's face my new town Blazers in the finals... I'm going to parade, one I just have to fly to!

ML, the Visionary1

I love my Blazers.  Watch (almost) every game.  Live in the valley, so can’t get DirecTV anymore, and it’s only OK because I get the Blazers on Comcast.  Which is awesome.  Love Mike, Mike and Rebecca.  Love to read Blazers edge, catch up on all the news, listen to Quick on the Game, listen to the Fan, read the Oregonian… 

So I want to revel in the highlights of Blazer victories on the post game shows (and, when they start out well, on the halftime highlights).  But Tony Luftman has made that very hard for me to enjoy.  Until tonight.  As any Comcast viewer will tell you, let’s just say that Tony has a fairly limited working vocabulary.  So tonite I invented the…

Tony Luftman Drinking Game!

Whenever Tony says any of his favorite clichés, yell it out, and if you are first, everybody else has to take a drink (if you’re watching yourself, drink, and try to keep track, and see if Tony can beat his old record – tonight was 22).  Feel free to track your own, but to get you started, here are:

Tony’s all-time favorite clichés:

“Very impressive”  (I counted 3 occurrences tonite, if you count ‘really’ impressive as one…)

“That’s fantastic” (only once tonight, but he’s as consistent with this as BRoy is for 20, 5 and 5…)

“Tell them what they’ve won Michael” – (I only counted twice tonite, but I swear the over/under is 4)

If that’s not enough celebration/diversion for you, you could always expand with any of Tony’s favorite words:

“partner” (3 times tonite, twice in less than 10 seconds, a new Luftman cliche record!),

“specTACular”  (another very consistent, LA jumper like, performer)

“rolls on”, “move on”, “cruising on”. “coasting”  (please, do what you say, Tony...)

“the Association” (OK, only twice tonight, but I just hate this one, and not from just Tony – I immediately punch to the Fan anytime CIP (Chump in Portland) says “a-SO----she-A-shun”…  gimme a break)

And of course, whenever you hear Tony say

“Back out to Mike, Mike, And Rebecca” – everybody CHUG and FILL, because we’re leaving Tony and returning to the Blazers game!

Hope this helps all Comcast viewers enjoy their game more…

Visionary1

Hmm,   Just wondering...  Now that Dairus's 9 mil is on our cap for this and next season, I believe that means that we are going to be "over the cap"...    And if I'm not mistaken, part of RLEC's value is that, when his contract expires, we get to use some % of that "expiring contract" to sign a player EVEN IF WE ARE OVER THE CAP...

Not to mention, RLEC has some insurance clause thingy that pays the Blazers (or whoever owns that contract) some big bucks every month... which Blazers ownership might want to "offset" the Miles impact...

So, bottom line: does Darius mean that we now need RLEC as much as anybody else, and therefore, can we now delete 50% of the trade rumors??

The other interesting thing is that with RLEC, you can sign one of the many great free agents...   If you trade RLEC, you're trading him for a player under a big contract...and probably can't dip into that big free agent pool...

So does this mean that Darius might have actually HELPED the Blazers??

OK, well, despite having attended the last home game (great game except for the last second), and being bummed about the no-show in Utah tonight, I am somewhat consoled by the fact that the Blazer's late fade brings the Blazers to 15-9, which is what I wildly optimistically predicted in Dave's "beginning of the year Prediction Post..."

(I don't know how to do those link things..  that'd be a good post., BTW.. basic stuff like how to do that for us infrequent posters)  but anyway, I said:

"I see two possibilities: Post 1: 2008-2009 Oden is as big a difference maker, immediately, as Shaq was. The team jells much faster than anybody expects, and we go through the first tough 24 games at a surprising 15-9 clip,

OK, so Oden isn't Shaq (I still have to add: yet), but not bad, eh?  Do I win a BEdge T-shirt?

OK, so go search that post and see how you did... 

(and. OK, the rest of my prediction is still wildly opimistic, but I bet you're much more likely now to agree with the next part of my prediction now then you were at the start of the season:

"... and finish with a 54 win season, good enough for fourth in the West. "

Whether or not we can go on to win it all, of course, is still a few breaks away..  But..  can a brother get a rec here? :-)

Maybe now I deserve to continue to sign on as the...

I don't think this has been discussed anywhere, but the ESPN annual FANTASY basketball rankings are out, here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/basketball/fba/story?page=nbadk2k9_top190

I took a look at 3 team's player rankings, and found the following:

Blazers                              World Champs                           Fakers

42    BRoy                             9   KG                                        3    K0bIe

59    Greg Oden                  23   Pierce                               30   Pau Gasol ???

69    LAMA                          64   Allen                                   45   Odom

116  Rudy                            85  Rondo                               55   Bynum

139  Bayless                      164  Perkins                            160  Fisher

146  Blake                          169  Tony Allen??                   170  Farmer

148  Outlaw

Some comments:

1) Yes, these are FANTASY rankings, so except for blocked shots, defense doesn’t matter (why KG is probably #9).  Team defense, heart, etc. don’t factor in.

2) Forever, you’ve needed 3 superstars to win in the NBA.   We’re certainly in the mix with our top 3, although you have to give the nod to the other two teams, at least based on these ratings..

3) Who here would rather have Pau Gasol over anybody on the Blazers?   Me neither…

4) We have DEPTH.  (Duh)   Our second unit should destroy the opposition on a nightly basis, at least in the regular season.  Both the C’s and Fakers have a noticeable drop off after #4, and in fact we have 7 guys better than their 5th.

5) Other notables: Rose #95, Beasley #65, which would make Oden their projected ROY, with the Blazers having (as I’ve been saying all along) 3 of the top 5 rookies this year!

6) Whither Martell?

But what I really want to hear your thoughts on is the answer to this question:   Who’s Wrong?

Are our “homer” expectations REALLY out of line?

Or, even given high praise in the national press, is the rest of the country still sleeping on this potential juggernaut?

Because if you were to give me these rankings without the team names on them, I’d say that team “A” is deep, but needs true superstars (at least one top 10 guy, and 3 top 50) to make a run…

So, who’s wrong?  Us, or ESPN?

I wanted to title this post "The New Phone Books are here, the New Phone Books are here", but it was too long, and I wasn't sure enough people are old enough to catch the reference, but for those that are, that's how geeked I am to see my tickets, which means the season is NOT too far off!

I thought I'd put up this post to see how many BEdgers are also Season Ticket holders...  (Or, like me, Half Season Ticket Holders)...  (Well, OK, if you count the other four guys that are sharing them with me, I guess I'm a 1/10 of a season ticket holder, but still....   I gots my tix!

Also, I was wondering while reading the Rudy at the Airport posts, and reading about people excited about meeting other BEdgers, if perhaps we could arrange to meet some time (perhaps before a game at Shonz' Place)?

Anybody?  Bueller?  Anybody?

Hey all,

New member, thanks, you made the Olympic better for me, and I'm sure many others..  I loved reading all the posts about the Blazer's incredible roster, including the Bayless and Rudi highlights...  I, too woke up the house on that dunk...  But one thing I haven't seen discussed much is the STYLE of play the Blazers need to play to be most successful.  Because of our unmatched depth of talent, that style, I believe, is, in a word (or 2?), up-tempo...

I'd like to see the first team take it right to the opponents, opening up with D like it's the 4th qtr of game 7 off the opening tip, and run the break after each D rebound.  Try to run the other team into the ground.  After 6 minutes, bring in a Bayless for Blake...  Let him turn on his fresh legs and run some more...  After a few more minutes, switch up Outlaw/Webster, and give big Greg a break, a minute later bring in Rudi for Roy...  And continue the pressure, and the rapid substition pattern that lets everybody play full out, for 6-8 minutes at a time...  Run....   Then bring in fresh legs, and run some more...   Throw out Batum, Rudi, Bayless, Oden and Diogu for a 'defense first' squad.... Run, run, and run some more.

Play full-court D, make the other team work all 48 minutes, contest the full length of the court.  Especially every home game.  Make Portland THE dreaded stop in the league. Every minute, out-hustle, out work, out sweat the opponent.  Because you only have to do it for 6-8 minutes at a time.   And you're only 20-something years old!

The other thing you need, besides depth, to play the running game, is to have control of the defensive glass.  (It helps to have multiple options to throw the outlet pass to, as well).  With Oden and LA manning the boards, and able to pass the ball to any of the other 3 guys to start the break, this year's Blazer's roster has what it takes to be a fast-break team...

This kind of play is very exciting for fans to watch, and is perhaps the only style of play that lack of experience won't take away in the post-season...  Because you can always hustle...  Having watched the mighty Bird Celtics of the 80's, I know that an Defensive team-first mindset, with an up-tempo style is the Blazers recipe for their success... 

Oh, and one final thing...  this is the NBA..  There IS no next year.   Blazers have the team that just could, with a few breaks, shock the world and win it ALL - this year - with a wild, up-tempo, smothering defense, fast break team.

Thoughts?

Visionary1