SB Nation User Blog: Vlad

Chris Bootcheck going to Japan

Vlad — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 19:26:45 -0000

Chris Bootcheck going to Japan

He signed a one-year deal with the Yokohama Bay Stars, for 50 million yen (about $550k at current exchange rates), plus performance bonuses. The story indicates that he may get a chance to be their closer.

Yokohama also signed ex-Buc Jose Castillo, to a one-year deal for 30 million yen. Castillo, who is expected to start at second base for Yokohama, played in Taiwan in 2009.

Pirates looking at Kelly Johnson

Vlad — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:16:13 -0000

Earlier today we learned that the Diamondbacks have interest in free agent second baseman Kelly Johnson , and now we're able to add three more clubs to the list of suitors. MLBTR learned from an industry source that the Pirates, Cardinals, and Astros have interest in Johnson. - Tim Dierkes, MLBTR

MLBTR isn't 100% reliable, but the possibility is interesting enough that I think it's worth discussing anyway.

Johnson would've been easier to fit onto the roster before the Iwamura pickup, but even now, he'd be a smart addition at the right price. He's a career .264/.346/.430 hitter who can play second, third, or corner outfield, and he'd immediately become the best player on our bench. Even better, as a 28-year-old, he's young enough that he could plausibly be a future building block if he acquits himself well in 2010. He struggled in 2009, but the main source of those struggles appears to have been a large drop in his BABIP relative to career norms (.313 career, .249 in 2009), making him a likely bet to rebound. His 2010 CHONE forecast is a .262/.338/.428 line.

If Johnson were to sign, the players most likely to be threatened by his presence on the roster would seem to be Vazquez and Young. I could certainly live with an upgrade on either of those two.

Fangraphs's take on the Capps non-tender

Vlad — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:31:10 -0000

Fangraphs's take on the Capps non-tender

The money quote:

What makes the changeup effective for most pitchers is the difference in speeds between it and the fastball. At 6.5 MPH in 2009, this difference was, unsurprisingly, the lowest of his career. It had a very noticeable effect on the pitch’s effectiveness, as measured by our pitch type values. From 2006-2008, the pitch had ranged in effectiveness from -3.21 to +3.12 runs per 100 pitches. In 2009, it plummeted to -5.35 runs per 100. It appears that Capps’s changeup lost much of its effectiveness after it no longer retained the 8.5 MPH difference that led to the +3.12 run value per 100 pitches in 2009.

This is a good point, and one I had not considered.

MVN.com closing its doors

Vlad — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:11:45 -0000

MVN.com closing its doors

The notable sports blog host will be closing its doors in January. Many of their sites will be relocating to other hosts - no word yet on a destination for Pittsburgh Lumber Co.

BA: John Manuel’s Early Take On The Talent Rankings

Vlad — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 20:57:42 -0000

BA: John Manuel’s Early Take On The Talent Rankings

Manuel ranks the top five and bottom five teams, then separates the remaining teams into a group of 6-15 and a group of 16-25. He placed us in the 6-15 group, with the following comment: "Impressive depth behind top prospects Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez."

Barring a dramatic change in his thinking, before the book's date of publication, this will be our highest placement in BA's rankings in quite some time. We were 18th in 2009, 26th in 2008, 19th in 2007, 19th in 2006, and 18th in 2005.

It's nice to see the front office get some credit for all their hard work in rebuilding our farm system.

AFL fastball velocities

Vlad — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:14:38 -0000

AFL fastball velocities

Stumbled across this on BA's site, and thought it might be of interest. It's the PitchF/X data for the fastballs of all the pitchers in the AFL this year (as of last week). The numbers for our guys:

Donald Veal: best 94.6, average 92.47
Danny Moskos: best 93.3, average 90.51
Tony Watson: best 91.3, average 88.96

For the player population as a whole, the median best fastball number was 93.3, and the median average fastball number was 91.04.

Rule 5 possibilities

Vlad — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:42:15 -0000

Now that teams are starting to finalize their rosters prior to today's deadline, I thought it might be fun to create a thread and look at some of the players who will be available to us in this year's Rule 5 draft. We'll be picking second in the draft order, and as such, should have a good opportunity to come away with a useful talent (or two?).

Here are some of the options I like - please add your own in the comments. I'll try to add more to my list periodically, time permitting, though I'm going to be out of town for most of this weekend.

Yohan Pino , RHSP, 6'3'', 158 lbs, born 12/26/83, Cleveland's system. A Venezuelan originally signed by the Twins , Pino was traded to the Indians in the Carl Pavano deal last year. His fastball only reaches the high 80s, and he lacks the physical projection to add any more velocity, but he's got a good curve and slider and strong command of all his pitches. He misses bats (8.1 career K/9), doesn't give many free passes (2.2 career BB/9), and keeps the ball in the park (0.7 HR/9) despite being a flyball pitcher. He's been primarily used as a starter, but also has some experience in relief, and could handle either role. His health record is largely clean - there was some trouble with one of his feet in 2008, but it doesn't seem to have had any lasting effects.

Finesse pitchers sometimes experience diminishing returns with promotion, but I think Pino is a fairly good bet to succeed in the majors, insofar as his component rates have remained strong against more advanced competition (8.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 in 127 IP this year, mostly at AAA). He does not have a star-level ceiling, which might turn off a front office that reached for the sky with Veal last year, but I think he could do well at the back end of a rotation or in a bullpen for a number of years, and he would be useful right away.

Aneury Rodriguez , RHSP, 6'3", 180 lbs, born 12/13/1987, Tampa Bay's system. Like Pino, Rodriguez was dealt by his original team in 2009, moving from the Rockies to the Rays in exchange for Jason Hammel early in the year. He has better raw stuff than Pino, however, with a fastball that's already in the low 90s and some projection remaining on his frame. He also has a good curveball, and a fairly advanced feel for a changeup for a pitcher of his age (which is not necessarily the same thing as having a functional change for MLB, of course). He maintains a good strikeout rate (career 8.0 K/9) and is solid on walks (career 3.1 BB/9) and home runs (career 0.9 HR/9) despite flyball tendencies. He has been used exclusively as a starter in his pro career, though some scouts see him as a potential bullpen option, and his health record is clean.

Rodriguez has more upper-minors experience than some "live arm" picks, having spent all of 2009 in the rotation of AA Montgomery, but at this point he is probably not ready to compete in the majors, and would likely need to be hidden in a Vogelsong-type role of multi-inning low-leverage situations. He has some weaknesses typical of young pitchers, including a tendency to overthrow, and he could be frustrating to watch next season. Still, he has the potential to be a relatively high-value option down the road, occupying a spot in our rotation in late 2011 or 2012.

Cole Rohrbough , LHSP, 6'3'', 205 lbs., born 5/23/87, Atlanta's system. One of the last high-priced draft-and-follow players before the system was abolished, Rohrbough signed for $675,000 as a 22nd-round pick out of Western Nevada College in 2006 - second-round money at the time. He has a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a big curveball that can be a killer when it's on, and a changeup that's a work in progress. He was regarded as one of Atlanta's top prospects coming into 2009, but had inconsistent mechanics, which led to inconsistent command of his pitches. He also experienced some shoulder soreness last year, though no injury was found, and it was attributed to tendinitis. His rate stats were sound, though not exceptional, with the walk rate (3.7 BB/9) being the biggest concern. His ERA, while ugly, was much higher than those component rates would suggest.

Rohrbough is fairly raw, with no experience above A+ and inconsistent mechanics. He would probably need to be hidden like Veal was last year. There's a fairly high chance that he'll be a bust, but there's also a very high ceiling here - he could be a front-of-the-rotation starter if everything goes right. The team's success with a similar type of pitcher in Veal last year may encourage them to go back to the same well once more with Rohrbough, and we certainly have a need for lefty power arms.

John Raynor , R/R LF/CF, 6'2'', 185 lbs., born 1/4/84, Florida's system. A 9th-round pick out of UNC-Wilmington in 2006, Raynor was the Sally League MVP in 2007. He's one of the fastest players in the minors - timed at 6.3 in the 60 yard dash, with 141 stolen bases in only 418 career games, at a career success rate of 83%. He's mostly played left field, due to a weak throwing arm and some questionable defensive instincts, but could potentially play center with continued improvement. With the bat in his hands, he leverages his foot speed to hit for a good average (.298 career), and can pop a decent number of line drives. He has holes in his swing, however, leading to a fairly high K rate, and he'll probably never have much over-the-fence power. Raynor played at AAA in 2009 and struggled, posting a .255/.326/.357 raw line at New Orleans. His batting average on balls in play this year was significantly below his career norms, however, suggesting that luck may have been partially responsible for his poor performance. He had been dominant in both 2007 and 2008, but was a little bit old for his leagues, so the performance might need to be discounted somewhat. To further complicate matters analytically, he broke a bone in his hand playing in the AFL after the 2008 season, which may have dragged down his 2009 numbers.

The Pirates don't have a crying need for outfielders, but you never say "no" to talent, and it's not a ludicrous fit. Our backup CF from last season (Salazar) is a free agent, and Gorkys is probably at least a year away from being ready for the majors. We could carry Raynor as our fifth outfielder and use him as a PH/PR, a caddy for Cutch, and a late-inning defensive replacement if Garrett Jones ends up as the starting RF. In time, he could develop into a Nyjer-like player if everything goes right, though he'll need to put in a lot of work for that to happen.

The 2010 CHONE projection for Raynor is a .247/.324/.359 line. That projection assumes that his 2009 was not affected by the injury.

Luis Marte , RHSP, 5'11'', 170 lbs., born 8/26/86, Detroit's system. One of several interesting players left unprotected by the Tigers, Marte is a solid pitching prospect despite his small frame. Signed at 19 out of the Dominican Republic, he features a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a good slider, and a spotty changeup. He has good control numbers (2.7 career BB/9) despite inconsistent command, and fairly high strikeout totals (7.4 career K/9), mostly due to his slider. He leaves balls up in the zone at times, leading to a higher-than-ideal number of home runs, and his lack of a solid changeup gives him problems against lefties, who hit .305 against him last year. He also has some medical red flags, spending time on the DL with both elbow and shoulder pain over the last two years, although in neither case was surgery needed. His velocity reportedly dipped into the high 80s on several occasions last year, possibly due to the tender arm.

In the majors, I see Marte as a short reliever with tactical value against righties, in the mold of Steve Reed or Scott Strickland. His aggressive approach should translate well to short relief, which would also minimize his risk of injury, and let him use his fastball and slider to best effect. If he could show improvement down the road with the change and become a true setup option, so much the better. That said, many teams will not even consider a RHP under six feet tall, so it's hard to know whether Marte would be a consideration for our scouts or not.

Brayan Villareal , RHSP, 6'0'', 170 lbs., born 10/5/87, Detroit's system. Another undersized Latin righty from the Tigers, Villareal is a high-risk, high-reward option. The Venezuelan's fastball routinely sits in the mid-90s and sometimes spikes higher, and it also has good life and sink. He complements it with an above-average slider and a pretty decent changeup for a kid in A-ball. He enjoyed a breakout season in the Midwest League this year, striking out more than ten batters per nine innings, and allowing only five home runs in 103 1/3 innings pitched. This was, unfortunately, almost the entirety of his experience in the American minors, as he missed almost all of 2007 and 2008 due to Tommy John surgery. He was used mainly as a starter last year, but also spent some time in the bullpen, in an effort to limit his total innings.

Villareal is a high-ceiling talent, advanced for his age and regarded as someone who could move quickly through the Tigers system, but his lack of even mid-minors experience means that he probably could not be counted on to contribute much in the majors next year. His injury history and small size present risks, but if he remains healthy and continues to develop, he could be a #2 or #3 starter.

Danny Dorn , LH LF/1B, 6'2'', 190 lbs., born 7/20/84, Cincinnati's system. One of the heroes of Cal State-Fullerton's College World Series championship squad in 2006, Dorn was a 32nd-round pick in the 2006 draft who has consistently outplayed the expectations of scouts. His bat is his best tool, with good contact ability and solid power, thanks to sound mechanics and a high flyball rate. He doesn't draw many walks because he doesn't go deep into counts. He also has a fairly dramatic platoon split: .299/.370/.497 against RHP in 2009, but only .189/.238/.365 against LHP. For his career as a whole, it's just as dramatic: .312/.394/.554 against RHP, .215/.310/.356 against LHP. L/R offensive splits ARE predictive for left-handed batters, and as such, he would probably need to be platooned rigorously in the majors. He's not particularly toolsy, and has below-average speed. Defensively, he's limited to LF or 1B due to both a lack of speed and an injury to his throwing shoulder suffered in his college days, though he's a competent enough fielder at both spots. His health record as a pro is fairly clean, with a few minor nagging injuries but no serious problems since the shoulder injury.

Dorn has the ability to be a solid platoon starter in the majors right away, but his lack of positional flexibility and his problems with RHP will impose tactical limitations on his manager and limit his ultimate upside. He'll probably always be more of a complementary part on a good team, rather than a core player - he's drawn some scouting comparisons to Garret Anderson. Still, his swing would look good in our park, we could use a challenger for Brandon Moss in the corner outfield, and Dorn's made a habit of exceeding expectations.

The 2010 CHONE projection for Dorn is a .257/.321/.452 line.

To be continued...

"[Chase D'Arnaud] does everything well enough," said an American League scout. "He doesn’t have a s...

Vlad — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:24:39 -0000

"[Chase D'Arnaud] does everything well enough," said an American League scout. "He doesn’t have a standout tool, but he has some bat speed and he can square it up. He’s got gap power, but he can turn on one and hit it out."
[...]
Added another AL scout: "He has to not get out on his front side so much, but he’s strong for his size. He drifts out on his front side but he has such good hands that he can make up for it."

"AFL Notebook: D’Arnaud Does It All", Baseball America, Ben Badler

Pirates hire Steve Williams as Major League scout

Vlad — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:20:29 -0000

Pirates hire Steve Williams as Major League scout

"Williams, 45, most recently served the Kansas City Royals as their Assistant Director of Scouting, a position he held since August 15, 2006. Prior to joining the Royals, Williams worked for the Detroit Tigers as their Midwest Scouting Supervisor (2000-01) and East Coast Supervisor (2002-06), overseeing a territory from Maine to Puerto Rico.

His scouting career began when he served as an area scout with the Minnesota Twins from 1988 to 1995. Williams also worked for the Toronto Blue Jays as their Midwest Area Scout from 1995-99, covering a seven-state region."

Williams was the scout who originally signed Mike Trombley and Orlando Hudson, among other players. He worked under current Pirates scouting director Greg Smith from 2000-2004, when Smith held that same position with the Tigers, and under current Pirates special assistant Larry Corrigan from 1992-1993, when Corrigan was scouting director for the Twins.

2009 Minor League Six-Year Free Agent Listing

Vlad — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:34:46 -0000

2009 Minor League Six-Year Free Agent Listing

A list of all of this offseason's minor league free agents, for every franchise. We have 28, one of the highest totals in baseball, a reflection of the lack of system depth resulting from Creech's poor drafts. Most notably, our list includes Juan Mateo and Jamie Romak, as well as recent roster denizens Jason Davis, Eric Hacker, Steve Lerud, Ty Taubenheim, and Virgil Vasquez.

Which of our players would you like to bring back? Which of other teams' players would you like to snag?