I've been thinking about the minors a lot lately, and wanted to put my thoughts to paper, if you will. As we all know, the minor league system is the lifeblood of a successful ML team. All organizations not in the Yanks/Sox/Phil’s category need to supplement their ML team with young, cost-controlled talent to remain viable long term. Developing your own superstars is what turns teams into championship contenders. Teams that are run well put millions of dollars and hours into finding, selecting, and cultivating talent in order to save millions down the road.

Fortunately for us, it would seem that the Cardinals have similar feelings about the importance of a strong minor league system. Over the past few years, under the direction of John Mozeliak and with the hard work of people like Lunhow (goodbye, sweet prince) and John Vuch, the Cardinals have turned an awful farm system (thank you Mr. Jocketty) into one that will be ranked in the top 10 by all, and even in the top 5 by some.

So, without further pontification (actually there is a lot more coming), I want to talk about the 5 talking points/storylines/narratives I will be closely monitoring during the 2012 season. Follow me after the jump...

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Greg and I put in a lot of work to kind of force it to bend through the pain.

Allen Craig, c. June 13, 2011

As a Physical Therapist, this quote from Allen Craig continues to make me physically wretch. Words like "force it" and "through the pain" are typically very frowned upon during the rehabilitation process. The only times that this type of action is OK during treatment is when contracture of a joint is present (i.e capsular adhesions, scar tissue buildup in chronic cases). To force a joint to bend "through the pain" during the acute phase (Craig injured his knee on June 7, 2011) is never OK.

After the jump, a timeline...

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All right boys, girls, and robot, it's that time of the year again. Time for the Third Annual Cardinals Trade Value list of destiny and awesomeness. I've done these lists twice before, in 2009 and 2010, and both posts generated interesting and worthwhile discussion. Last year's list ended up being prescient, with Ryan Ludwick being traded at the deadline and netting us Jake Westbrook (who had a really solid two months with the Cardinals) and Nick Greenwood (lefty reliever in AA; potential future LOOGY). This is all based on the Fangraphs series that Dave Cameron has done the past few years (doesn't seem to be doing it this year, however) where he looks at all of baseball and comes up with top 50 players in terms of trade value. Here's Dave now with an assist on what I am looking at when formulating this list:

Essentially, the idea is to take all the information that goes into encapsulating a player’s value to an organization - his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances - and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball.

As with the previous two years, this is not a prospect list, and players that look to be injured at the trade deadline will be included (Tommy Pham, Adam Reifer). The higher a player is on the list (1 being highest), the more value he would bring bag in a hypothetical trade. And screw no trade clauses, that won't stop me from putting a player on the list.

Things have changed pretty significantly since this time last year, when Pujols, Colby, and Waino were 1,2,3 on my list. Pujols is about to get PAID and is coming off a "wrist" injury. Waino tore his UCL in spring training and underwent Tommy John surgery, effectively putting him out until next year (unless you are a dreamer). Colby is an enigma wrapped in a puzzle with an extra helping of mystery to top it all off. Let us get to it.

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As he did last season, Dave Cameron is doing a MLB Trade Value Series over at Fangraphs. And, just like last season, I am going to do a Cardinals version.  As I look back at my top 10 from last year, I find that there has been some attrition, both due to trades(Goodbye Walrus) and poor performance(Hellow Daryl Jones). Quick Recap of what I'm trying to do here, using Cameron's explanation from last year's intro:

Essentially, the idea is to take all the information that goes into encapsulating a player’s value to an organization - his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances - and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball.
 

As with last year, this is not a prospect list, and no injured players, since they will be hurt come the trade deadline(Daniel Descalso) are included. The higher a player is on the list(1 being highest), the more value he would bring bag in a hypothtical trade. Untouchable players are denoted with an asterisk. Oh, and not trade clauses are stupid, so i discount them entirely(I was gonna put Holliday somewhere on this list, but his contract really makes him untradeable).

My top 3 from last season has not changed.

1. Albert Pujols--Even in a "down-year" he's still a top 5 offensive player. Add to that his defensive abilities, and, well, you have a player that will go down in baseball history as one of the best ever. Only 30 years old, Pujols could conceivably continue to play at a superstar for the next 5-6 years. As I said last year, "if we traded him this year, we would expect the other team's entire farm system in return, plus the hottest women(or men for those ladies reading) in the team's respective city." While this has not really changed, I did not mark him as untouchable simply because if the Cardinals know for a fact that won't be able to re-sign him, they should making him available, just to see what they can get back in return.

2. Colby Rasmus*--He was number 2 on my list last year, that was before he figured out the major leagues. He has come into this year showing much better plate discipline, the ability to hit lefties, and above average power. In fact, offensively, he is the best centerfielder in MLB. Even though his UZR stats paint him as having a bad year defensively in centerfield, most would agree he is a + defender(though his arm has been very disappointing this season). Rasmus will be only 24 at the end of this season and is under team control for 4 more seasons. All of this adds up to one incredible value. He is probably the first player other teams ask for when the Cardinals inquire about a big-time player, and hopefully he is the first person Mo and Company say no about.

3. Adam Wainwright*--Aces are hard to come by, and for the past 2 and a half season, Waino has been a definite ace. He has gotten better every season, and were it not for the media's love for Tim Lincecum, he probably would already have a Cy Young under his belt. His contract is yummy from the organization's stand point: $4.65M this year, $6.5M next season, and two club options in '12 and '13 at $9M and $12M, respectively. That is well below market value for a true ace. He is 28, so he is only just now entering his prime. He would bring back a healthy haul in terms of value. Still, the Cardinals should not consider trading him, unless they suck in 2012 or 2013,

4. Shelby Miller--Teams value young pitchers who project to be aces above all else when they bargaining during a potential trade. After Rasmus, Miller is probably the guy other teams are asking about most when Mo calls. 97mph with a put-away curve and good control does not come around everyday. Still, he has not yet pitched above Low A ball, though his impressive stats(12.9 K/9, 72:18 K:BB ration) there suggest he may be ready for High A any day now. He's not untouchable, but its pretty close.

5. Jaime Garcia*--LH top half of the rotation pitchers are a rare commodity, and the Cardinals just happen to have one. He's lower than Miller because of his injury history. Maybe I am counting that against him too much, but I'm afraid of guys that have had major arm surgery before they turn 25. Still, Garcia has mixed impressive groundball rates with moderate strikeout rates. He could stand to walk a few less batters, but this is his first year starting in the majors, so we can't expect perfection. He'll be under team control for 4 more seasons(still not sure why he was accruing service time while he was on the DL for Tommy John surgery) which means, assuming he keeps even close to his current level of production up, he'll be an amazing value for most of the next half decade. Right now, I think he's untouchable due to his cheapness and goodness(yay word usage skills!!), and due to the lack of top end starting talent in the upper levels of our minor league system. We are gonna need relatively cheap pitchers to fill out the rotation for the next few years if we want to re-sign Pujols.

6. Ryan Ludwick--I really thought he would be a free agent after this season, but according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, he'll be under team control for another season after this year. When healthy, he puts up good numbers offensively and plays really good defense in RF. Being under team control for one more year helps his value, and since he only makes 5.45M this year, you'd think his salary for next season will be under 8M. He'll probably exceed that figure in terms of WAR. He's no spring chicken, but a team looking for offensive help would offer something good in return.

7. Eduardo Sanchez--If you have been following the Cardinals transactions over the past couple of seasons, you might think that RH relief pitchers are a dime a dozen. In the past year and a half, we have traded away Mark Worrell(ass), Luke Gregerson(where did he come from), Chris Perez(erratic), and Jess Todd(short). In the past 2 and a half seasons, we have introduced Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, and Fernando Salas to the major leagues. We have Josh Kinney, Fransisco Samuel, Matthew Scherer, Pete Parise and Mike MacDougal in AAA. We also have a guy who throws 97, has a wipeout slider, and possesses good command and control in Eduardo Sanchez, who is most assuredly not a dime a dozen. His stats in the minors are very solid and he projects to be a closer or a shutdown set-up man in the bigs, and other teams value that type of player. He'll be cheap for at least 3 years once he gets to St. Louis. Basically, he is the best a RH relief pitcher with no major league experience can be in terms of trade value.

8. Jon Jay--Maybe I am putting too much stock into current performance, but I think teams would quickly ask for Jay in trade negotiations. When drafted, some scouts said Jay could someday win a batting title. While, that may be a slight overstatement, I do think he could easily hit .300 in the big leagues, with an OBP above .350, all while playing good defense at all 3 outfield positions(his bat plays best in center). He'll be under team control for 6 years after this season.

9. Bryan Anderson--Catchers already have inherent value just due to their position. Add to that the fact that Anderson is putting up pretty good numbers in AAA this season with a 276/345/449 line. He's shown better power so far this year than over the past couple seasons. He's blocked in St. Louis, since LaRussa refuses to keep good players on his bench. 6 seasons of team control make him even more valuable. Did I mention he bats left-handed, and that his defense is getting better reviews this season?

10. Mitchell Boggs--Power arm with incredible FB movement and a slider that, when on, is pretty nasty. He has little to no control, but, if he can somehow harness that, watch out. Teams salivate of guys who have stuff like this, so he could be a nice secondary piece in a trade. 5 more season of team control after this year make him a pretty nice commodity.

Honorable mention: Allen Craig, Jason Motte(just one pitch hurts him in my opinion), Tyler Greene, Lance Lynn

I'm sure I'm forgetting someone who should be on here. Add your suggestions in comments or just quibble with my order.

And I usually do more thought out, statistically heavy FanPosts, but Allen Craig not being called up has sent me into a tizzy.  Why no call up? THIS GUY CRUSHES THE BALL.  He could be our third baseman next season.  Hell, if we don't re-sign Holliday, he could be our left fielder next season.  We need to see what he can do now that we have the division all but wrapped up.  Albert got hurt last night...Craig could play first for a couple of games to give AP the game off

Thanks to Yadi2Second for the pic

The way this organization is treating Craig is repugnant....Mods can delete this if there is more discussion in the main thread later

After last nights 3 K performance, all against lefties, I decided I wanted to look at Colby Rasmus's stats against left-handed pitchers.  He has clearly struggled against southpaws this season, and the stats bear this out.  Here is what I found:

In 88 AB against lefties this season, Rasmus has put up a .150/.218/.200 line for an OPS of .418(OPS+ is a dreadful 20).  21 of his 88 at bats have ended in a strikeout and he only has 5 walks.  Obviously, that is really really bad, especially when you see that he is OPSing at a rate of .833 against RH pitching(OPS+ of 112).  Watching the game last night, Colby looked really overmatched and even more than that, he looked to be guessing.  The strikeout pitch from Kuo was a fastball that Gameday said was right down the middle.  My guess is that he is having some trouble picking up the pitch from the lefties(which is a problem for many LH handed batters), which is causing him to guess instead of react.  His minor league stats lead me to believe that he can and will turn it around.

In 422 Minor league at bats, Rasmus put up a solid .275/.371./.455 line against LH pitching, though his LD% was on the low side at 15.1%.  These stats do include what almost amounts to a lost 2008 season at Memphis, where his customary slow start and injury affected his numbers.  Rasmus showed he could hit lefties in the minors with a career .826 OPS.  So why isn't he hitting lefties in the majors?

The first thing that must be pointed out is that 88 PAs against Lefties is the definition of small sample size.  I also believe that Colby may be getting unlucky.  His BABIP against lefties is a paltry .190, quite a bit lower than his minor league BABIP against lefties(.334).  I cannot find his LD% against lefties to see if he is in fact getting unlucky this season, so if anyone has that, please post it.

The pitch that I have seen him have the most trouble with against lefties is the curve.  Fangraphs' numbers bear this out as Rasmus is 1.4 runs below average against the curveball, He also struggles against the cutter, where he is 1.5 runs below average.  Both of these pitches are often used by lefties on LH batters, and they are used to good effect against Rasmus.  I really think he is having some trouble picking up the ball, which is forcing him to guess.  Still, his minor league numbers, and the small sample size, give me hope that in the future, Colby will be able to hit left handed pitching.  He probably won't ever be a great hitter against them, but he'll be good enough that, combined with his above average ability vs. RH pitching and outstanding defense, he'll be a borderline star for years to come.

Addendum:  I played around with MLE's on a couple different sites, and the numbers they gave me were very very disappointing, against RH and LH pitching both.  I don't know if I am doing something wrong, or what, but if anyone wants to add those to the comments, please feel free.  I was really hoping to use them as part of my evidence, but wasn't able to. 

Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron is doing a MLB Trade Value Series.  I'm going to attempt to do a top ten in trade value list for the Cardinals organization.  This is not a prospect list; if you want to see one of those and all the discussion that goes along with on, check out Erik's Mid Season Prospect Rankings over at Future Redbirds.  This is a subjective look at how valuable our top assets would be on the trade market.  Dave Cameron says it better than me:

Essentially, the idea is to take all the information that goes into encapsulating a player’s value to an organization - his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances - and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball.

Basically, the better their place on this list, the more we'd expect to get in return if we traded them.  I will add that I also took positional saturation into consideration for my rankings(We have a ton of LH hitting OF, so Ank and Dunc aren't as valuable as they would be if we didn't have any in our system)   So, without further ado, here is my list.  * indicates who I consider untouchable...no injured players included

1.  Albert Pujols*--This is a no-brainer.  He's the best player in baseball, signed for 2 and a half more years(includes option year) and is getting paid at a below-market value.  Obviously, if we traded him this year, we would expect the other team's entire farm system in return, plus the hottest women(or men for those ladies reading) in the team's respective city.

2.  Colby Rasmus*--He'll be super cheap for at least the next two years(he'll probably be a super-two), then be arbitration eligible, which would still be a good deal for any club.  He plays GG caliber defense in a premium position, and has some serious offensive upside.  Basically, he is they type of piece you build a team around.

3.  Adam Wainwright*--Ace in the making(may already be there) signed to a team friendly contract through 2011, with options in '12 and '13 that, based on current performance, are also at a discounted rate($9mil and $12mil, respectively).  He also looks to be a workhorse(I'm gonna write off last season's DL as a freak injury).  I'm always going to rate a proven pitcher high on these lists because, as we all know, TINSTAAPP, so having proven pitching is incredibly valuable.

4.  Brett Wallace--Young, cost controlled talent with major upside is always going to be a valuable asset.  Add to that his potential of sticking at third, and he is even more valuable.  IMHO, you can always find a 1B or LF with offensive upside; 3B, not so easy to find(Exhibit A=Joe Thurston).  He's not untouchable because of the chances of him not sticking at third, and therefore being blocked by the best player on the planet.  If he had a little more pop, he might be above Waino on the list, but as is, he still a very valuable asset.

5.  Yadier Molina--Best defensive catcher in baseball bar none.  Also shows a real ability to call games and handle a pitching staff.  Last two seasons, he has shown the ablitity to handle the bat, which makes him much more valuable.  He's still young and is signed to a team friendly contract until 2012. 

6.  Shelby Miller--Some of you are not going to agree with this one, and to be honest, I'm not sure I even agree.  He hasn't thrown a professional pitch(heck, he hasn't even signed yet), there's TINSTAAPP to deal with, and he hasn't thrown a professional pitch.  Still, he is a potential #1 pitcher that throws 97 with nice movement and has a out pitch in his curveball.  Learning the changeup will really make his value as a starter soar.  I know he can't be traded till a year after he signs, but I guarantee he is one of the first guys other team will ask about in trade talks next year.

7.  Clayton Mortensen

8.  Mitchell Boggs--Both of these pitchers are potential #3's in a rotation.  They are young, can and will eat up innings, and have been moderately successful at AAA(Boggs has even had some success at the ML level).  I put Mort above because he is one year closer to arbitration and FA.

9.  Jason Motte--He throws really hard, but lacks a secondary pitch.  If he figures the slider out, he would soar up this chart, as that would make him a closer candidate(he already is really, that would just solidify it).  Best thing about him may be the command that he has shown.  I would like to put him higher, but with only one pitch, his ceiling is probably set-up man(and yes I realize that often set-up men are in higher leverage situations than closers, but other GM don't seem to realize that)

10.  Daniel Descalso--Middle infield prospects that can handle the bat, and play average to slightly above average defense are valuable and hard to come by(especially in the Cardinal org.)  I may be letting myself get Niko'd(getting hopes up only to have them dashed next season), but I think this guy could be guarding the keystone in St. Louis as early as next season, and I think he could be there for a while.  Cost-controlled and young, he showed some real pop in AA with a ISO of .208 and an acceptable walk rate.  His BABIP is a tad high, but if he can hit .300 with some pop and good defense, he's a pretty valuable piece.  Even moreso if he can keep his OBP in the .370 range like it was at AA and has been thus far at AAA.

HM(in no order): Lance Lynn, Peter Kozma, Francisco Samuel, Jess Todd(almost made it), Aaron Luna, Tyler Henley

Oh crap!  I completely forgot about Daryl Jones.  He'd probably slot in at #7.  Leadoff man potential in the Carl Crawford mold.  Still young and has shown a really advance batting eye.  I would much rather have a player who has a good eye and is developing power than a player with good power who is developing a good eye.

Thoughts?

After yesterday's game, in which Brendan Ryan made a couple of really nice defensive plays and hit a game changing triple, I began to wonder just how valuable Boog is to this team.  I also began to wonder if he could be the answer at short long-term for the Cardinals.  I've taken a look at his numbers, both in the minors and as a big leaguer, to answer these questions and I think I've come to an encouraging conclusion:  Brendan Ryan has a chance to be a Cardinal for a while.

Let's start by looking at the area where, to the naked eye, Boog has the most value.  This, of course, lies in his defense at SS.  Ryan has the highest UZR/150 rating of anyone in baseball who has played at least 300 innings at SS.  Yes, you read that right.  At arguably the most important defensive position in the game, we have the best fielder in all the majors, according to UZR/150.  And really, its not even that close.  His 26.2 rating is 6 points higher than his closest compatriot at SS, Jack Wilson(who is generally considered one of the better shortstops in the game).  Now, I realize that his 320 innings may cause people to scream "Small Sample Size," but unlike with hitting, luck really doesn't play a part in fielding(especially a zone rating).  Additionally, he has been a plus defender in his other two years with the Cardinals and in his time in the minors, so this defense isn't likely to go away.  His defense this season has been worth 10.7 runs above average already this season, which calculates out to about 1.7 wins(10 runs=1 win).  I have to feel like he is going to get twice as many innings at short in the second half, so if he keeps up his current defensive level, he could be worth at least 3 wins just with the glove alone.

Now let's look as his less glamorous side.  Ryan has been the definition of average at the plate this season, being  worth -0.3 runs at the plate.  Coming into today's game, Boog has had 184 at bats this season, which is 4 more than he had in 2007(I'm kinda disregarding his '08 season due to his rib injury, which we all know can really hurt a player's offensive performance.)  He was worth 2.5 runs above replacement with the bat in 2007, so he has not been quite as good this year at the plate.  His slugging% in those two seasons('07 and '09) is actually higher than i would have thought, being over .400 both season(though just barely).  The thing that really hurts Ryan's offensive performance is his low OBP.  He's never going to hit for any real power(the occasional double or triple) so in order to be a valuable offensive player, he has to get on base.  The reason he has a low OBP is because he doesn't take walks.  His average has hovered around .290-.300, so he is getting hits, he just isn't taking walks.  His BB% is 4.7 this season and was 7.7% in '07.  His highest BB% in the minors was 8.1 in 2006 at low A ball, so we probably don't have a rise in BB% to look forward to.  If he could get is BB% up to, say, 10%, he would be roughly half a win over 500 plate appearances(I extrapolated his current numbers to 500 PA, so thats 50 BBs for a .353 wOBA).  I don't think we will ever see Ryan take 50 walks over 500 at bats, and until he does he will probably be league average hitter.  You could probably also say that his average around .300 is due to a small sample size, and you may be right.  Boog did show the ability to hit for a pretty good average in the minors(.278 in 353 PA in 2007 at Memphis), but expecting him to stay in the .290 to .300 may be asking too much.  Still, I will give him the benefit of the doubt, since he has done it in two different major league seasons.  I will add here that he has shown the ablility to steal a few bases(though his 4 CS in 12 attempts is nothing to write home about); in fact, I believe that if Tony would run more, Ryan could probably steal 20-30 bases over a full season.  That adds some value to the overall Boog package, though probably not much(I'm sure there is some way to evaluate the value of a steal, but I don't know where to find it).

So, hopefully I have shown that , assuming Boog continues to be a plus defender, he can be worth at least 3 runs over the course of a full season(and potentially more if he takes some walks and plays the stellar defense he has been this season).  3 WAR would have made Boog the 11th best SS in baseball last year, more valuable than Stephen Drew, Michael Young, and Cristian Guzman.  3 WAR is more value than Jack Wilson had in any season but his career best year(2004).  Now, this could be Ryan's career year, but since his value is weighted in defense, which isn't likely to diminish to much, I think this could be sustainable.  Not bad for a guy only making 400K(he's been worth $8.7 milion already this year) this season.  He'll have under 3 years of service time after this season, so he'll be incredibly cheap again next season.  He's 27, so he's about to enter the "prime" of his career, and I think he can be a cheap, yet valuable, bridge to the era of the Kozmonaut(Pete Kozma-who probably has at least 2 more years before he's ready to take over.)  Let's just hope his wrist holds up and that is proneness(is that a word?) for injuries stops being a problem.

All stats and figures came from Fangraphs.com

I used the wOBA calcualtor provided online by BayCityBall.com.

If I screwed anything up(math, stats, analysis of numbers) feel free to let me know.

Which player would you rather have?  Both are 3B:

Player A: .301/.367/.516  WOBA .383  UZR/150 16.6

Player B: .270/.372/.483 WOBA .371  UZR/150 5.0

As the Cardinals are currently constructed, you'd probably love to have both of these players. Both are middle of the lineup types that would certainly give our anemic offense a boost.  And both can more than hold their own at the hot corner.  Obviously, however, Player A is the who you'd rather have assuming all other things are equal.  Player A becomes even more attractive when you realize that he is 24 while player B is 32.

How much does the fact that Player A would cost premium prospects change your feeling about him?  Add to that that Player B would cost no prospects at all?  That may change things just a bit, but I'd have to say most would still like Player A more.

Ok, enough of this secrecy.  If you haven't figured it out by now, Player A is Ryan Zimmerman and Player B is Troy Glaus.  Zimmerman's stats are his updated ZiPS projections and while I know that projections are just that, his number through June 3 show that he could potentially exceed these numbers(.322/.391/.550 WOBA .401).  Glaus's numbers are from 2008(only his second plus defensive year since 2002 by the way).  Zimmerman's .358 BABIP is unsustainable which means his BA and OBP will drop, but his ISO is a hefty .227 meaning he will probably still be very productive even with the anticipated dip in BA.  In summary, Zimmerman is a baller and I'd love to see him in a uniform that has birds on a bat.

I'm going to look at the McClouth deal as a starting point for this.  Notice I said starting point because, lets face it, Zimmerman is better than McClouth.  They are, however, both the face of their respective franchises and probably the best offensive players on the teams, IMHO.  The guys over at futureredbirds.net seem to think that the Braves got the raw end of the deal, and I tend to agree with them(not to mention look to them for all of my prospecting needs).  An equivalent of the deal that landed McClouth would be Daryl Jones, Clayton Mortensen, and a throw in pitcher.  This will obviously not land us Zimmerman, as a two 4 star prospects+a throw in offer will be laughed at very quickly.  What about a 5 star, a 4, a 3 and a guy who I think should be a 3-star?  The deal I am thinking about is Brett Wallace(5 star), Chris Perez(4-star), Bryan Anderson(3-star) or one of our AAA pitchers(Mort, Boggs) and Allen Craig.

Here's my thinking.  Wallace becomes the Nationals answer at first base.  Nick Johnson is always hurt and Dmitri Young is, well, Dmitri Young.  Wallace becomes very expendable for us if we have Zimmerman and Pujols as he doesn't have a position outside of 3b and 1b(not seeing LF as a viable option, though we have had Duncan there the past 3 years).  The Nats get their closer in Chris Perez and we have minor league relievers who can take his spot(Todd). They can take their pick of Anderson, Mort, or Boggs depending on their needs(may actually choose Anderson with all of the pitching they have in the pipelines plus Strasburg).  Allen Craig becomes the Nats third baseman.  I think Craig is underrated.  He can hit for power, puts up an ok average and from everything I have read, can handle the hot corner.

I think with this deal, we answer a huge need for this year and for the future(Zimmerman is signed to a team-friendly contract through 2013(09:$3.325M, 10:$6.25M, 11:$8.925M, 12:$12M, 13:$14M).  We answer this need without giving up too much.  A lineup with Rasmus, Pujols, Zimmerman as the 2-3-4 makes me salivate.  This would also show Pujols that we are serious about winning, which can only help when we start with extension talks.  DeWitt has said he is ok with adding some payroll this season as well.  Oh, and for those of you are wondering about park factors ESPN has Busch and Nationals Park as almost identical.

So, would you guys do this deal? Do you think the Nationals would do this deal? What would it take?

All Stats from Fangraphs.com

Prospect ratings from Baseballprospectus

Contract info from Cot's Baseball Contracts

FOOCH'S NOTE 7:31PM: This seems like another useful exercise in mock drafting.  Glad to see we've got somebody who recognizes the team doesn't need to go QB in the first round.

Hello Niners Fans.  StampedeBlue is doing a mock draft, and I've been selected to pick for the Niners.  The plan for us right now is to just do the first two rounds, and I'm looking for your thoughts on San Fran's team needs.  Having the 10th pick puts you in a good spot in my opinion; you're going to have a chance to get a real difference making player but not have to spend quite the ungodly amount that a top 5 pick gets.  I also feel like teams in the top half of the draft pick based on team need more often than not.  So, please, let me know what Singletary and his team most needs.  I feel like you guys are comfortable enough at QB to not take a risk on Stafford of Sanchez were they there at 10.  Am I right, wrong, misguided?  Thanks in advance for your responses.

P.S.  When I was a kid, the 49ers were the team I most closely followed(not a huge fan)  As you can tell my my name though, I am a midwesterner who enjoys UT football, so when Manning became a Colt, things changed.  I still hold a place in my heart for those mid 90s Niner teams, and still hate Brett Favre and the Packers because of that rivalry.  Anyways, I was really excited to be chosen to pick for the Niners.

I was thinking up my Christmas wishlist the other day and I started looking at it from a Cardinals perspective.  Before you close this window, this is not a Hot Stove wish list.  This is what I want Santa to give to current Cardinals to help make them better players, thus making us a better team.  Basically, I wish Santa would wrap up certain skills and put them under the trees of different Cardinals.

1.  Pitch recognition skills for Tyler Greene-From what I've heard, Greene has some serious issues with recognizing pitches.  His numbers seem be bear this out as StatCorner shows that his swinging strikeout % in AA  the last two seasons were 17.8% and 18.7%.  League average is around 13%, so making contact seems to be a major problem for Greene.  This sucks for Greene because when he does make contact, he has some pop in his bat(ISO of .204 and .190 the past two AA seasons).  I don't have the time(or the know how) to go through his numbers and figure out what his OBP would look like if he just struck out swinging at the league average(13%).  Getting pitch recognition skills for Christmas would certainly increase his BB% which was 6.8% and 5.6% over the past two AA seasons(not good).  It would also increase his batting average(duh).  When coupled with his solid defense, his higher OBP would make Tyler Greene a pretty decent player.  There's your 2B over the next few years right there.

2.  A Slider for Jason Motte-This is pretty self explanatory.  If he had a legitimate slider(or any breaking pitch for that matter) to go along with his 98mph fastball, he'd be nearly unhittable.  In the long run, I'm not sure he can get by with just his fastball, but with a slider, we no doubt have our set-up man/closer/trade bait over the next 5 or 6 years.

3.  Command for Chris Perez-Also pretty self-explanatory.  He's got a nasty fastball and a nasty slider, he just needs to be able to consistently command those pitches.  If he does, there's our closer/set-up man/serious trade bait.

4.  Some power for Bryan Anderson-If Anderson had a little more pop, he would be a fantastic catching prospect.  We all know about his prowess with the bat in terms of contact and the fact that he is getting better behind the plate.  If he could increase  his power, he would be an incredible trading chip for us(or we could trade Yadi and use Anderson).  His ISO in AA in 2007 and 2008 was .090 and .138 and in AAA in '08 it was .098.  He's a singles hitter plain and simple.  If he could just add some doubles and the occasional HR, we would have ourselves a top tier prospect.

Thats all I have right now.  Anyone else have Christmas wishes?

Hang with me for a few minutes.  I think I might have a way to fill two "holes" without making any sort of transaction(read: trade, FA acquisition).  We would still have other holes that needed to be filled, but simply by tweaking the way we look at one of our pitchers, I believe we can plug some gaps.

I have very little confidence that Chris Carpenter will be able to be an effective starter next season due to his nerve issue.  I also believe that he can pitch next season.  That may seem like a contradiction, and maybe it is, but I still believe it.  If I'm right about his injury(which the Cardinals have not been completely forthright about everything, so i may not be) his problems stem from overuse.  This is obviously not good for a starting pitcher. 

Chris Perez is the Cardinals closer of the future.  The future is closer than it was at this time last year, but I'm still not sold the future is here.  I'm not sure we should heap all of the pressure involved with being a closer onto young pitcher next season without a little more apprenticeship.  That being said...

What about using Carpenter as our closer next year?  He could pitch 3-4 times a week and leave the other save opportunities for Perez as Carpenter rested.  According to stlcardinals.com, the BOB had 73 save opportunites last season, converting 42 of them.  Granted, we had the 2nd most save opps in the majors(most in the NL) so that number may come down some next season.  But lets say we get 60 save opps next season.  Thats roughly one save opportunity every 3 games, right at 2 per week.  If carpenter pitched even 2-3 times a week, he would probably get 70% of our save opportunites, leaving Perez to pick up the other 30%.  Carpenter definitely has the stuff to efficiently shut a team down for one inning.  Since the beginning of 2005, Carp has thrown about 14.3 pitches per inning(info from fangraphs).  Going right at batters may cause the number to go even lower.  So, we could have a high quality closer, and it won't cause any unneccessary overuse of Carp's arm, all while giving Perez a pretty good share of save opps.  That is one hole "filled."

This would also allow us to fill a second hole: 4th/5th starter.  Adding Carp to the pen would allow us to move McClellan to the rotation.  McClellan to the rotation has been discussed ad nauseum on this site.  He defnititely has the stuff to be a pretty solid starter, the question lies in his arm health.  McClellan kind of remind me of Wellenmeyer though; I doubt we could get 32 starts out of him, but it would not surprise me if he was able to start 25-28 games and go close to 6 innings in those game.  He had control problems as a starter in the minors, but sorted those out for the first 4 months of last season.  Maybe if he has a full offseason working out to be a starter, he could be a reliable guy with nice upside to add to the rotation.

A rotation of Waino, Welly, Lohse, McClellan, and Piniero/Boggs/Veteran cheap FA doesn't look that bad.  And a bullpen anchored by Motte to Perez to Carpenter, sprinkled with a little Franklin and hopefully Springer isn't awful, as long as we add 2 Lefties to the mix.

Thoughts?

I was perusing mlbtraderumors.com and came across the chat they had yesterday.  It seemed that more than one Giants fan believed that Jonathan Sanchez would be made available this offseason in a bid to get infield help, specifcally power hitting corner infield help.  They have pitching coming up through the pipelines with the likes of Madison Bumgardner(or is it Roenhauser? Gardenhoser?) so the fans think Sabean my spin Sanchez for a young power hitting CI.  The guy that runs mlbtraderumors.com implied that they may wait to trade him till next year's trade deadline, just to make sure their young pitchers can handle AAA first and show they are ready for the bigs.

My suggestion is to trade somebody for Sanchez.  I'll talk about who that somebody could/should be later.  First, I'll focus on Sanchez.

According to Cott's, he had just under 2 years of ML service, so I think he is under team control for 4 more years, with arbitration starting after next season.  That is a good thing that will probably drive his cost up a bit.  His numbers look pretty good, even though his ERA is a little high.  His peripherals are good enough that you can see his upside and his FIP is somewhat encouraging.  Maybe in front of a little better defense, that ERA will drop.  These numbers, his age, and his cheapness make him a solid option as a number 3/4 type starter.  Trading for him would obviously be cheaper financially and in terms of draft picks that signing a Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett type.  I don't know anything about his mechanics and he did have a trip to the DL this season with some rotator cuff tightness, but besides that, I can't find any other signs of injury.  Someone who knows pitching mechanics may be able to better speak to what kind of injury risk he may or may not be.

A rotation of Carp, Waino, Welly, Sanchez, insert name here(Boggs, Looper, Piniero, McClellan?) looks pretty solid to me.  Sanchez's Southpawedness balances it out nicely.  Plus, if he does not cut it as a starter, then you have a cheap LH reliever who held Lefties to a .220 average this season(though they did slug .409 against him...ughh).

Now to the question of who to trade for him.  The Giants seem to be looking for power hitting CI's.  Fortunately for the Cardinals, we have a surplus of those type players in our system.  Steve Hill(1B?), Allen Craig(3B), David Freese(3B), and Brett Wallace(3B) all fit the bill.  I'm not going to mention Brett Wallace anymore because I don't think we can trade him until June, and even then, right now, he's untouchable for me.  That leaves Hill, Craig, and Freese.  I think Hill's lack of a true position could cause problems, but I also think that he can play 1B and know that he can mash.  Craig plays an average to above average 3B and call also mash.  Freese plays a good 3B and can mash and hit for a pretty good average.  His MLE is .264/.318/.446 with 19 HR, which is not a lot worse than what Glaus has put up in St. Louis this season.  I actually think that Freese's average would be slightly higher than that(along with a bump in OBP).  I don't know exactly what the Giants want, but I'm guessing they want a major league ready player.  Hill and Craig are not, but I believe Freese could definitely hold his own as the starting 3B for a team like the Giants.  Would Freese be enough to pry Sanchez away? Would we need to throw in a C-level prosepect to make it work?  Maybe even one of our flamethrowing RH relievers we have in the minors?  I don't know, but I definitely think that Mo should call Sabean and try to work out a deal.

I'd hate to see Freese go, because I think he could be a valuable reserve for the Cards next season.  But I think by trading for Sanchez, we could save money to make a run at Furcal or Hudson, which would go long way in helping our MI and offense.  Plus it would give us at least 4 cheap years of a solid #3 starter.  Dave Duncan does scare me with young lefties though.

Thoughts?

I think I have come to terms with the fact that this season's playoff push is a lost cause.  These Cardinals have put me through a thrill ride.  And to be honest, I wouldn't have it any different.  Of course I would have loved for the Cards to have won 162 games and swept through the playoffs, but considering that is never going to happen, and that this team was left for dead at the start of the season, I think this has been one of my favorite seasons as a Cardinals fan.

Anways, I have been thinking about the offseason a lot the last couple of days.  I have come up with my dream offseason.  These aren't complete fantasy moves; no Alex Rodriguez for LaRue straight up or signing C.C Sabbathia to a team friendly affordable contract.  These are moves that I think the Cardinals should and more importantly could do(or is it could and more importantly should, I don't know)

I will also preface this by saying while I'm not sure about salary numbers and the like, I am trying to be reasonable as possible.  Like I said, I think these are moves the team could afford.  I am also going with rumors that have been put out there about players that could be made available by other teams(I'm looking at you Tulowitzki)

1.  Release Adam Kennedy--Simply put, he is taking up a roster spot that could go to a cheaper, more productive player.  As I said, I don't  really know how salaries work, but if it's as simple as giving him the $3mil we still owe him to go away it has to be done.  The other option is to eat a large part of the contract and trade him.  Not sure what we could get for him, probably no more than that well traveled jack of all trades, Player to be Named Later.

2.  Resign Felipe Lopez for no more than 2 million a year and Miles for no more than 1.5 million, or find veteran equivalents for the same price.  Whatever you may think about these two, players like this are needed on all teams in order to be successful.  A certain level of grit is required, if you will.  Let these two, Brendan Ryan, Hoffpauir, and Brian Barden battle in Spring Training for the starting 2B position, and use the others as utility/backups or send them to Memphis.  Having these offensive juggernauts at the keystone is ok because.....

4.  Trading Rasmus, Mortensen/Garcia, and Anderson for Tulowitzki.  Obviously he may not really be available.  And even if he is, then obviously start with a lower offer and don't go any higher than this, but this kid is a dynamic talent at a prime position.  We have a glut of outfielders, so while it would wrench my heart to trade Rasmus, getting 4 years of cheap Tulo would be the only type of deal I would be ok with losing Rasmus over.

5.  Re-sign Braden Looper.  I struggled here between this and signing Derek Lowe. Without looking at any numbers to back me up, I feel like Looper would be close to the same level of ability for less cost and at a younger age.  Maybe 7-10 milion/ year for 3 years.  It may take more than that and I might be completely wrong about him being close to as good as Lowe.  If so, I reserve the right to change my mind.

6.  Don't re-sign Loshe.  Hope that a team with unprotected draft picks decide to sign him and take our picks and run.

7.  Start working to extend Pujols beyond 2011.  Maybe even do it.  For the sake of sanity, humanity, clarity, any other ity's Pujols has to be a Cardinal for his whole career.

Thoughts? Ideas? Changes?

Word out of Florida, according to mlbtraderumors.com and SI, is that the Marlins are considering yet another firesale.  Since a lot of their players are arby eligible this offseason, they will either have to trade them away, or double their payroll(which we all know they won't do).  One of the names mentioned as being a trade candidate is Dan Uggla, hero of the All-Star Game.

I'm not the type of person that knows sabermetric stats such as VORP and win shares so I really can't speak to all of that in-depth stuff.  What I do know is that Uggla, even if he doesn't have the same season at the plate next year as he did this year, would be quite the offensive upgrade over our current crop of 2-baggers.  My question to all of you faithful VEB readers(especially those of you who are good with said statistics)is: Should the Cardinals consider trading some prospects in the offseason for Mr. Uggla?  He will be cheaper than Orlando Hudson methinks, so the Cards would save some money(I am assuming Mo will do everything in his power to improve our MI situation, maybe I am wrong).  Are his deficiencies at the keystone such that his bat will never make up for his iron glove?  What do you guys think he will get in arbitration?  And lastly, but most importantly, who from the farm system would you be willing to give up to get him?

I feel like if we really wanted him, we should go no higher than Jay and Mortensen...or some combination like that.  That may even be too much.  The Marlins know how to drive up the price, but I gotta think the Cards would have the upperhand because the Marlins seem to really be looking to ship him out.

Thoughts?

MLB Traderumors.com pointed out that Rafeal Furcal would be a free agent this offseason.  The website seems to think that Furcal will get 5 years and 75 million dollars.  He lists the Cardinals as a team that might take a look at the shortstop if he hits the open market(apparently the dodgers are interested in extending him).

I think the Cardinals have to at least take a look at Furcal.  I realize that is a ton of money to a 31 year old, but he would satisfy a few needs for the Cardinals.

Leadoff hitter: Granted, Skip has done a solid job this year, but can you imagine Furcal's speed at the top of the lineup?  If LaRussa ever did decide to actually run a little, Furcal could bring a new element to this lineup. This would also allow Rasmus to bat #2 or even down in the order so all of the pressure of the leadoff spot won't be on our young outfielder.

Quality shortstop: Furcal is a plus defender with a huge arm.  Defense up the middle is key to Cardinals pitching success, with LaDuncan preaching pitching to contact

The Bridge to Kozmaville: Pete Kozma has been playing lights out in A- ball, but he is at least 3 years away, probably more like 4-5.  Signing Furcal would bridge the gap so we don't have to sign one year stopgaps like Izturis over the next few years. 

Furcal is going to want a max contract, so he could very well be priced out of the Cardinals range.  But I think that we have to take a look at him this offseason if he is available.  He would just serve so many purposes for a team that has a real legit chance of being good next year if everyone progresses as expected(Rasmus, Perez, Motte) and gets healthy(Carpenter).