2011 was yet another disappointing year for the Baltimore Orioles. There were some bright spots: Matt Wieters continued to improve both behind and alongside the plate, J.J. Hardy turned in a performance better than anyone had predicted, and Zach Britton had a solid rookie year despite being a groundball pitcher without a good defensive third baseman. But the struggles of Brian Matusz took Birdland by surprise, as by the end of the 2010 season, most fans thought he was almost certain to be the best pitcher on the staff in 2011.

Of course, that was before he got injured in Spring Training, and never resembled his 2010 self for the rest of the year. Upon first coming off of the disabled list, Matusz showed an average fastball about 3 mph slower than the 2010 version. Fans and analysts point to the decreased velocity as the main reason for Matusz's record-setting struggles in 2011. Is that really the case, however, or were there other problems that simply weren't as obvious?

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I got a chance to see the Frederick Keys take on the Wilmington Blue Rocks last night and check out a few prospects in the process. I took some notes while watching (and, for the first time in ages, scoring) the game, figuring y'all would like to hear how Machado & Co. are doing.

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In 2009, our best rookie was among the least heralded. Called up when Alfredo Simon went on the DL just a pair of starts into the season, Brad Bergesen was quietly one of the best rookie pitchers of the year, until a Billy Butler line drive ended his season in late July. After such a successful debut, many of us O's fans were excited to see if Bergy could recover from his shin injury (and a ridiculous commercial mishap) and continue being effective in 2010.

Unfortunately, Bergesen disappointed for most of the first half. He had flashes of success, but was very inconsistent -- and perhaps most importantly, while his command was still decent, he seemed to have completely lost the ability to strike batters out. While he's never been and never will be a strikeout pitcher, it's essentially impossible to succeed in the big leagues when you walk more batters than you strike out, as he did from April to July. Many of us at Camden Chat and elsewhere started to resign ourselves to the idea that 2009 was a fluke, and we'd never see Bergesen be even a decent fifth starter again.

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So, after finding TotalZone when looking for a decent metric to evaluate Cal's defense a couple of days ago, I decided to see what it said about the 2009 O's, since if we look at defensive stats, we usually just use UZR. I was just going to post this in the Open Thread, but it got pretty long. Anyway, some interesting tidbits:

* Brian Roberts doesn't look good via TotalZone, either. I'm not positive, but I think it actually rates him worse than UZR does for 2009, and it definitely does for 2008 (when UZR is mostly unhappy with his double play runs). Between the stats, seeing Abreu make those plays in that ST game, and now the back issue, I'm getting really worried about B-Rob's defense going forward. I had been predicting a rebound, but I'm doubting that now.

* Cesar Izturis was awesome, but we knew that. Though among AL SS with 100+ games, it actually puts Marco Scutaro just in front of him.

* Melvin Mora was, indeed, above-average at the hot corner, if not by all that much.

* It doesn't like Nolan Reimold. Hopefully that'll change.

* It has Adam Jones as above-average, but he'd be below-average without his arm. I don't think the doctor's defensive off-year is anything to worry about, though.

* Nick Markakis has some weird numbers. In 2007 and 2008, he was a bit above average on the road and a bit below average at home. In 2009, he was well above average at home and far below average on the road. I don't really know what to make of that, since anything I come up with is purely conjecture, but it's interesting. Oh, and it actually has his arm a touch below average last year, but I don't expect that to last.

* It doesn't like Luke Scott at 1B, but tiny sample size and all that. He actually was a well-above-average RF with the Astros in 2007. And in LF, he's a touch above average for his career.

* It has Felix Pie way, way above average in CF (for both last year and his career) and still has him well above average in left. Granted, both are small sample sizes.

* It has Robert Andino worse than Izzy but still well above average at SS last year. This contrasts with his career numbers, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the regular playing time really did help him.

Hopefully some of that was interesting enough to have been worth the read. Unfortunately, like most defensive metrics, it doesn't say anything about catchers or pitchers, so I can't touch on our switch-hitting future or ZAUN. I'm curious if anyone has any thoughts on the weird trend with Nick. Along those lines, I'm developing a theory... does anyone know how much time players usually spend getting acclimated to road ballparks?

So, we know by now that Adam Jones is not a Super Two this year, and as a result, the Orioles are going to save millions of dollars on him. Daniel Moroz over at Camden Crazies analyzes the Doctor's 2009 production and makes some rough estimates of his future salaries. He concludes by suggesting that the Orioles offer Adam a long-term deal during this offseason, rather than waiting until he's arbitration-eligible next year. He points out that this could be very fair to both sides, as Adam could get a bit more money in 2010 while the club saves a bit in the long term. He suggests something like 5 years, $40 million, which takes care of his first year of free agency.

Will this be Dr. Jones this winter? Image via cache.daylife.com

I think it's a good idea. The whole organization seems committed to Jones as the center fielder of the club for the next several years, and I see no reason to doubt that he will continue to improve. Not only does it seem to be win-win for both sides, but I think it's good to show the same commitment to Adam that they've shown Brian and Nick. If there's any sort of line for that kind of thing, he's definitely next; Guthrie and Scott may not fit into the plan, and there's no reason to commit that much to a bullpen arm. I also think that doing a deal now rather than next year might save the club that much more money, because the national recognition Adam has started to get (All-Star, Gold Glove) and the possibility that he improves even more in 2010 could feasibly get him even more than Daniel suggests. As far as I can tell, the only big arguments against a long-term deal would be that he seems a bit injury-prone so far and that his defense wasn't as good this year as last. However, the injuries he's had so far have been largely short-term or bad luck, and I don't think he was as bad defensively as UZR suggests.

So, what do you think? Lock up the good Doctor now, or wait and see how things play out over the next year?