SB Nation User Blog: W NY Fins Fan

Jags release cleo lemon

W NY Fins Fan — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:48:07 -0000

I know there were some fins fans around these parts a couple of years ago, who strongly believed that Cleo Lemon was the QB of the future. Well, per PFT the Jags released him today.... I'd like to wish him well on his future endeavors, and I hope he catches on someplace soon.

I know the Jets need a starter and the bills and patsies need a number 2, and seeing Cleo play for the Jets would make me feel good that a guy that good is playing for a team that deserves him.

stats as why Pat White will likely be a great starting QB in the NFL

W NY Fins Fan — Fri, 01 May 2009 03:14:25 -0000

Don't know if anyone else has been reading the "london calling" draft series over at the sun. you can get the post draft here. if you have time to read the whole series, its pretty dang interesting and while not entirely accurate as a predictor of miami's drafting, he does often come up with some statistical gems.

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2009/04/london_calling_biggest_longest_1.html

but in doing some research on Pat White Simon came up with some pretty dang interesting stats on why pat white is likely to end up as a very good starting QB in the NFL....

But what if White shows up at training camp believing, as he has every right to do, that he’s in a battle for the starting QB job? After all, this is a guy who’s started 49 games and completed 65% of his passes. Remember way back in Draft Winds 3 when I looked at the statistics on all QB’s selected in the first two rounds in terms of rates of success. They provided a fascinating insight; when you take the number of starts of a quarterback picked in rounds 1 and 2 and their career completion percentage in college and look at those that became successful starters in the NFL, they had at least 35 college starts and at least a 57% completion rating. Any who lacked in one or both departments had varying degrees of success:

QB’s with below 35 starts

1. Kyle Boller - 31 starts 48%
2. Ryan Leaf - 24 starts 53%
3. Joey Harrington - 26 starts 55%
4. Mike Vick - 21 starts 56%
5. JP Losman - 29 starts 57%
6. Akili Smith - 11 starts 58%
7. Tim Couch - 27 starts 67%
8. Alex Smith - 22 starts 66%
9. David Carr - 26 starts 62%
10. Drew Brees - 26 starts 61%
11. Rex Grossman - 32 starts 61%
12. Vince Young - 32 starts 61%
13. Aaron Rodgers - 25 starts 64%

You could argue that only Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have been successful from that group and it’s probably too early to judge Rodgers successfully. On the other hand, check these numbers out:

QB’s with 57% completion percentage and 35+ starts

1. Jay Cutler- 43 starts 57%
2. Carson Palmer- 45 starts 59%
3. Brady Quinn- 46 starts 58%
4. Ben Roethlisberger 38 starts 65%
5. Byron Leftwich 36 starts 65%
6. Matt Leinart 39 starts 65%
7. Philip Rivers 49 starts 64%
8. Daunte Culpepper 43 starts 64%
9. Donovan McNabb 45 starts 63%
10. Peyton Manning 45 starts 63%
11. Eli Manning 37 starts 61%
12. Chad Pennington 35 starts 63%

Those are two pretty telling lists. And White’s numbers stand up against anyone’s. The same completion percentage as two time Superbowl winner Ben Roethlisberger. A better completion percentage than our own deadly accurate Chad Pennington and he had Randy Moss to throw to. Better than McNabb, Manning, Cutler and Philip Rivers. So like I say, why wouldn’t White feel he has a legitimate shot as a starting QB, regardless of the system he played in? He’s not been in a pro style offense for the Mountaineers and that bears out on film; as a pocket passer you’d like to see him move his feet more consistently and he has a tendency to stare down the receiver and rarely look off the safety, but clearly Sparano and David Lee and Dan Henning have a plan for White. Yet I simply refuse to see a way that that plan means giving White a fair shot at beating out Chad’s Pennington and Henne. So what does his drafting truly mean? Well, the Dolphins front office made the comment that they wouldn't be drafting anyone specifically for the Wildcat offense this year, but around draft time, teams lie. Don’t take it personally. They just do. I think that what this pick means for Miami is that they’re simply moving to the next phase of the Wildcat. I had a pretty good conversation with a coach about this after the selection and he told me a number of things about the way the offense will move forward. We both believe that the Dolphins will continue to run a base offense led by one of the Chad's, and in most games that base will be most of what you will see, but the Wildcat, which appeared in most games for a series or two, is clearly going to expand in the future. Pat White will be a very big part of that process. White ran a lot of Wildcat and spread attack plays from under center at West Virginia. As coach said to me, “The key to White's college success is based on great angles, great decisions, and an unbelievable tempo once the ball is snapped.” Scouts and experts refer to Percy Harvin as “a big play waiting to happen”, but you could say the same for White except that in our offense, he has the ability to pass the ball with better accuracy than some Pro Bowlers, however slightly skewed his college statistics may be.

Let’s not forget that even if he has the hands of Iheanyi Uwaezuoke, he is the NCAA career leader in rushing yards for a QB with more than 4,000. Teams will no longer key Ronnie Brown in the Wildcat. The top dog in this next phase of the scheme will be Pat White. Ronnie Brown will be the 2nd or third option, much like Ricky Williams was last year while White becomes the leader of the Wildcat most the time. White may line up at times as a WR in the new system, but unlike Pennington he'll now be a threat on the pass, end around, or reverse. And where we flexed Penny out with Ronnie under center, he was never a threat to catch the ball.

White is. And the scheme is about to make life for the defense a major problem

Pat White to Win the starting QB job within 2 years

W NY Fins Fan — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 03:40:21 -0000

per mike mayock at the NFL network....

ok i spent more time watching the NFL network coverage then espn (btw: is it me or are they seriously drifting away from actual content and analysis to a show of personality shots and scripted banter highlighting their talking heads???)

but if someone can find the following the clip, PLEASE LINK it here, because it says a lot in my book. On sunday while wrapping up the draft in say the 7th round, mike mayock was saying the white pick was one of the best picks of the draft and that white would beat out the two "hanging chads" (yuck, yuck, yuck) within 2 or maybe 3 years since white was the best pure passer in this years draft.

Mayock, in my book, has proven to be a pretty straight shooter, and not prone to hyperbole as some of the talking heads have been know to do. he was all over ryan last year, and said teams(aka the dolphins) passing on him were making a huge mistake. So we should all take note here, and maybe we are all limiting our expectations on white when we see him as only the wildcat QB, and that we need to look at him more as a QB prospect who could be the franchise QB that most of us are looking for.

what positions will the fins draft

W NY Fins Fan — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 02:23:35 -0000

Since it's even money that you and me have the idea as to who BP is going to draft #1 tomorrow as Mr. Ross, i don't see the point in guessing who they will draft, but i'm kind of curious as to what positions people thing they will draft and how many...

well they have Nine picks going into the draft here is my guess.

QB - they have Henne, Beck, & Pennington .... It's been no secret that they've tried to trade the duck since last camp. he's just not one of their guys... that said after Henne their isn't very much long term future there and they will need a developmental project but unless there is a trade i don't see a roster spot for a QB... chance of a QB being picked 20% (uless the duck is traded 50/50, or as i would argue the lame duck is traded (%5) then they will draft a QB)

my quess on qb's drafted - 0 -

RB - they have 4 if practice squad Lex is counted - R&R are in their last years and ronnie is one EBay the last time i checked. They draft a back or TWO every draft and i see this draft the sameway... if ronnies traded they will draft a second back this year. (chance of 1 being taken 80%)

my guess -1-

o-line - they have 4 starters inked for the next 3-5 years and one young player(thomas) who they hope will be the fifth.... that said they are very T H I N here and even thinner when you look at T reserves.... so if they drafted a guard and a tackle i wouldn't be surprised... but they are looking stricktly for reserves and developmental projects, so these picks will be in 5-7 range. (chance of 1 being taken 65%, chance of 2 30%)

my guess -1-

TE - just like the backs, the starters are signed for only this year and neither is a great run blocker, a skill this admin puts a premium on (just ask sampson)...so i think this is a key position for them, and i expect an early pick to be used here (maybe even a first) chance of 1 being taken 90%

my guess 1

WR - good core group on the team with a wide skill set... think they will blossom once henne takes over and the offense is able to take advantage of ginn's speed to open space. that said there aren't any guys who've shown to be good blockers and there is a serious lack of size in the group. chance of 1 being taken 100% chance of a 2nd being taken 20%....

my guess is 1 and it'll be much later then expected say pick 3-5.

D-line - youth was served last year, between the signing of starks and the draft 4 young guys were added, and these guys still believe that soliai could become something (see last year .... he was suspended 2 times .... they didnt cut him, which means they are trying to teach him) that said - the d-line was less than stellar at getting to the QB and these guys believe strongly in QB pressure... so if there is a pass rusher out there that'll get some pressure out of 3-4 end postion ... you can put him on the board... chance of 1 being taken 60%

my guess is 0

LB - holes, holes, holes and very few players locked up for the long term....I would argue that this is the teams most pressing need. if you look at the roster, does the team have any players who you can say are more than likely in the plans for 2011? CC - they signed to a 3 year deal only after he conceded big chunks of cash to stay in S Fla... Roth contract is up and i'd agrue is the teams best LB right now... porter is getting old and will likely become more of a pass rush specialist as the year moves on. AA is old and hardly what anyone would call a play maker as he does his job but doesn't wow anyone... Chance of 1 being drafted 100%, chance of 2 50%, chance of 3 %33

my guess is 2

secondary - the second biggest weakness on the team... unlike LB they do have some play makers back there, and maybe some youth, but there is very little depth and there are some really bad players on the roster (yes i do mean FA Green). so i see this as the position that will get the most focus of the triad. chance of drafting 1 - 100% chance of 2 85%, chance of 3 40%.

my guess is 2

special teamer

fb/k/p/slasher - special teams last year to be kind, were a work in progress. the good news is they did get better, the bad news is well ... they need to get better.my guess is they'll bring in a couple unrestricted FA to kick against the boys, but they'll draft a player to return kicks/punts. the other option is someone to run the wildcat... the great weakness of ronnie back there is that defenses or at least the good ones didn't respect ronnie's ability to throw... so i wouldn't be surprise to see a pat white type drafted or a kick returner or a FB to block/ bust wedges... chance of 1 drafted 45%

my guess is 1

so here is my guess for the draft

1 -RB, 1 o-line, 1-te, wr-1, lb-2, cb/s -2, & 1 special teamer...

and if they don't add the special teamer then go with 2 rb.

Denver says they will trade Cutler

W NY Fins Fan — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 01:51:14 -0000

per PFT -

Denver Broncos owner pat bowlen has said - since they can not speak to jay cutler, (they've tried for the last 10 days), that they will ~~wimp out (err bend over)~~ agree to Jay Cutler's demand to be traded.

They are listening to offers as we type....

so I know this is covered ground, but now that it's official and Cutler is going to be traded (likely before the draft), how do you feel about this? should miami enter the bidding?

Poll

Should the triad trade for J Cutler?

yes - he is the answer to the QB woes

11 votes

yes, but only if the price is right

23 votes

eh? who is Jay Cutler

1 votes

no - because i hate Cutler

8 votes

no - because miami is set at QB

42 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

Henne on the road with the Triad

W NY Fins Fan — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 05:24:55 -0000

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/football/miami-dolphins/story/972613.html

I guess in a sign that penne's days as the starting QB are numbered, the big three has taken Henne on the road with them to work out receiver prospects.

took my chevy to the levy and the levy was dry, Them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye And singin’, "this’ll be the day that I die.
"this’ll be the day that I die." bye bye american noodle arm.

other players on the trade block

W NY Fins Fan — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 01:45:44 -0000

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2009/03/with-samson-satele-gone-who-might-be-next.html

OK - I know mando's opinions usually aren't popular around these parts but his team info is usually pretty accurate - especially when he's quoting team sources and reasons....

But Mando says the following players are on the trade block if the price is right.

Wilford: (bueller, beuller)

Beck: (anyone)

and Jason Allen (????)

any surprises?

wow - i know these guys feel that you should build a team from the inside out, but does that mean you should play without and OUT?

J Cutler has asked for a trade - Should the phins make a play for him?

W NY Fins Fan — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 20:27:18 -0000

Media reports are now saying that J Cutler has asked to be traded.

This is a real simple poll Question, do you think it would be wise for the dolphins

to try and aquire cutler?

If you think the price will be too high - likely a first rounder and something else, but otherwise would like to have Cutler as the teams QB - just vote and leave your comment below.

my opinion? when there is talent like him on the market and QB has been a team need for at least a decade you have to inquire... however i'm pretty leary of Cutler because he just seems to be a bit of a head case.

Poll

Should the dolphins trade for J Cutler

yes

56 votes

no

93 votes

149 votes | Poll has closed

should the Fins make a play for warner

W NY Fins Fan — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 04:11:06 -0000

As the days of FA wind down, Arizona is still playing hard to get with their Super Bowl QB... (would anyone expect less from Arizona and the Bidwells)...

Since this Admin is stuck on the idea that they need a caretaker QB to lead the team until some day in the future when they'll feel the need to right the leading cause of mediocrity for the franchise the last 10 years.... (no long term solution at the most important position on the field....

Is it time to make a play for the 3x superbowl QB....

the move has the following positive...

the team gets to trade Pennington (most likely for something in the late 2nd to 3rd round pick)

the team gets a QB who just lead a team to the superbow and has been to 2 others....(when was the last time the phins had a superbowl QB)

the team gets a strong armed QB who can get the ball deep - something that T Ginn hasn't had the last 2 years. and with the strong arm it has the additional positives... Warner is a good play action QB as teams have to respect his deep threat arm and T Ginns spead which means the safties have to play deeper... which opens up the inside running lanes for R Brown... so warner opens up a deep passing game AND improves the running game.

Warner has shown himself to be a great mentor to young QB's, unlike penne who reports indicated turned the team against K Clemmens, not only says PC things but actually LIVES and ACTs by those words.

now the only negatives i see... signing warner will cost a heck of a lot more and likely will eat up any remaing cap space and maybe some more...

Warner has a history of getting hurt and playing poorly (but then so does penne)

Poll

Should the Fins Sign K Warner to QB the team

Amen, brother Warner will lead us to the promised land

2 votes

what are you nuts - I love pasta and want noodles for another 10 years

14 votes

save the money and just start Henne and end the Caretaker streak

22 votes

i'd love warner but we can't get him

4 votes

warner stinks

4 votes

46 votes | Poll has closed

wow!!!! wish we could play Cincy 2x a year

W NY Fins Fan — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 22:53:02 -0000

for those of you who remember his 2 game stint as a starter here... (i'm still in meetings trying to recover)

but Cincy resigned C Crocker for 10 mi over 4 years.....

all of this begs the question are they really that bad or do they not watch the games?

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/real_scouts/entry/view/17588/chris_crocker_stays_in_cincy

~~Does anyone else think we should sign warner to be our caretaker QB of the year? what would a new season be without a new caretaker?~~