Hey guys, long time lurker (but long time Canuck's fan from the states) here.

Name's Ben. I just moved to Denver from Bellingham, WA. I'm wondering if there are any super kool Vancouver followers in the area, and if there's a bar around town that is a good bet to have the Nuck's game on. I can only go so long without HNIC, and there is no way on this green earth that I'll be missing the postseason because I'm too cheap to get cable. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

Also, just want to add how PUMPED I was to get to see the guys pull it out on Saturday. First game in person and it was sweet. My man-crush with the sick one timer not 50 ft from me. I was definitely reppin' the KesLORD number 17 well, and all the Canucks fans were awesome (especially the girl in town from VAN on business, you were so cute it was wrong, uhem totally not creepy :)) God that was a good time!

One more also thing...this is by far the best SB Nation blog I frequent and you guys always deliver with great material. Keep it up, and let's go NUCKS!

Email sent.

Basically, Brohm gives Seattle added security for the future as the franchise's premier players begin to age.

He also fits the criteria of BPA, a strong trait of GM Tim Ruskell.  He also fits the team's long-successful offense.

                                                                             

http://www.myfoxcolorado.com/myfox/p...Y&pageId=3.2.1

Yea, so I hope this turns out to be like Chris Henry's false-positive in Kentucky (or wherever it was)...otherwise many bad things will soon happen to this team.

Anyone know anything from the contract-aspect?  I see he had an 8.5 mil bonus and 12 mil in total guarantees...would that mean that only 3.5 mil of the remaining deal is guaranteed?

Saturday, May 12, 2007

The Decision to Choose Marcus Thomas

Investigation into DT Swayed Sundquist, Broncos

EDITOR'S NOTE: This is the third in a series leading into the mid-May commencement of organized team activities in which we further explore the Broncos' draft and offseason to date, focusing on the state of the club as it prepares to begin its organized team activities in the middle of the month. Last week, we looked at how the Broncos ended up picking 17th in the first round. Earlier this week, we examined the last two rounds of the draft's first day and why the Broncos targeted the defensive and offensive lines. Today we turn our attention to the acquisition of the fourth-round selection that became Florida defensive tackle Marcus Thomas.

By Andrew Mason
DenverBroncos.com

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- The sun had barely escaped from the horizon on the eastern plains of Colorado in the post-dawn hours of Aug. 29, but Ted Sundquist was not in the mood for a tranquil ease into a Sunday morning offseason routine.

The Broncos' general manager began that day -- the second of the 2007 NFL Draft -- by arriving at the club's headquarters and resuming the quest he commenced the night before, dialing one team after another, searching for a deal that would allow the Broncos to trade into the middle rounds and select before its next scheduled pick in the sixth round.

"I got in an hour early on Sunday and started calling and went through every single team until I got to 121, when Minnesota finally said yes," Sundquist said.

"I tried not to get too overextended. I'd have about four or five (at a time). I'd call when they were on the clock, as well, when I could see where they were at, and then I'd go right down the row. There were a couple of teams that had multiple fourth-rounders; I caught them on the front side and they said, 'Nah, I don't think so,' and I said, 'I'll see you on the second one.' Then we got back around and Minnesota was willing to do it.

"I called every single team and offered them the exact same thing that Minnesota took at the end of the fourth round and nobody would take it. (Other teams) had their players they wanted. Or, they weren't willing to move themselves out of the third round for next year's third-rounder. They still wanted the player, so what you saw were trades where teams would move back five or six spots in exchange for a fourth."

As it turned out, Sundquist said, the swap with the Vikings was timely if the Broncos were going to select Marcus Thomas, whom they had targeted to acquire since they selected Notre Dame offensive tackle Ryan Harris with the 70th overall pick.

"Marcus Thomas was going to be picked at 122 (a selection held by the Dallas Cowboys)," Sundquist said. "We had been told that."

If the Broncos had been able to retain the No. 86 selection that was dealt to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the trade to move up and pick Jarvis Moss in the first round, Thomas "probably" would have been Denver's second third-round choice.

THE COST OF THE TRADE

Eyebrows of draft observers arched at what the Broncos yielded in order to pick Thomas. It wasn't so much the sixth- and seventh-round choices that caused the stir, but the decision to send a third-rounder to the Vikings in the trade, moving the Broncos down to a pair of first-day selections next year.

At Head Coach Mike Shanahan's press conference following the Thomas selection, Shanahan was asked whether the package of picks was a "steep price to pay."

"It's not a very steep price to pay unless he is not with our program two weeks from now," Shanahan said.

Days later, Sundquist remained nonplussed by the notion.

""The 'steep price to pay' thing, once again, I'm baffled by, 'Why?'" Sundquist said. "It's too steep of a price if we end up picking in the top five of each round. But when has that happened in the life of most of our fans?"

Not since 1983.

"To me, when you identify a player that you feel like can come in and contribute to your football team now, I'm not going to sit and wait and say, 'It's too steep a price,' because there's this fictional ghost player in the third round next year that we could take -- and no one knows who that player would be," Sundquist continued.

"Is that guy (a 2008 third-rounder) going to have as big an impact on your football team as Marcus Thomas would have in '07? You have to ask yourself that. You don't know who that player is."

And on the Broncos' draft board, Thomas -- in terms of talent -- was close to first-round target Justin Harrell.

"Here's a guy who we feel may be as talented as Justin Harrell," Sundquist said.

The often-chronicled, character-based reasons why Thomas' draft stock descended from the first round down into the middle rounds meant the Broncos had to engage in a scrutinous investigation of Thomas' background before deciding whether he was worth a mid-round flyer.

"I think that due diligence was done in our interviewing of the player, our interviewing of people who coached and mentored this player and disciplined this player over the four years at Florida," Sundquist said.

INVESTIGATIVE REPORTING AND ANALYSIS

"I can assure the fans that it wasn't groupthink, that it wasn't about hearing what we wanted to hear," Sundquist said of the internal discussions that the Broncos brain trust conducted as they dissected Thomas' réumé and decided whether to prioritize him on the draft board.

"I'll be honest with you -- when we first talked about this, I, the general manager, was not real happy with the scenario -- that this guy was one of the senior leaders, had an opportunity, blew his opportunity and let his team down," Sundquist said. "I spoke up during the meetings about that, and it bothered me -- it bothered me quite a bit.

"But as we dug deeper and deeper into what the real circumstances were surrounding what went on, I became more comfortable with the risk that we were taking versus what I felt like we were getting from Marcus as a football player both on and off the field, and his leadership ability. You ask those guys down there (at the University of Florida) who the leader of that team was -- it's Marcus."

But the Broncos' investigation went deep, contacting anyone they could find with even a passing connection to Thomas -- past and present coaches, football support-staff personnel, professors, instructors. Their primary scouts in the region are director of player personnel Jim Goodman and his son, scout Jeff Goodman; both are Florida alumnae, and Jim Goodman was on the Florida staff from 1989-90.

"The area scouts, when they go into the university, it's their responsibility to speak to as many different sources as they possibly can about the character of any player," Sundquist said. "We're not searching to find what we want to find; we're searching to find the truth. Then we have to make the final decision as to whether we want to 'take that risk' or bypass that risk."

Shanahan also coached on the Florida staff from 1979-83.

"Our ins with Florida when it comes to getting to the bottom of some of these (character) questions are as good or better than anybody in the league," Sundquist said.

The Broncos then supplemented that research by interviewing him at the Scouting Combine, bringing him to Dove Valley for a pre-draft visit, and scouring for information, even studying the video of his Combine press conference. No stone was left unturned.

"Our visits weren't publicized. There was a reason for that," Sundquist said, "but he was brought in here for a visit."

"As it became clear (Thomas) could help us, then we went back and rechecked and maybe we went to some other sources and talked to some other people, but it was as thorough a job as we've done," Sundquist said. "There's a gamut of other things that we use with regards to testing and things like that, and this kid is very, very high on those charts.

"We battled this darn thing out and talked about it and went back. Even after we had done the initial interviews, we went back and talked to more people and asked them, 'Really - what is going on here?'

"I got swayed to where I was willing to take the risk. Initially, I said, 'Guys, no.'"

But Sundquist proved malleable and open to the notion that Thomas could atone for his past problems.

"We're comfortable with the decision we made," he said.

MONDAY: How the draft meshed with the general offseason plan.

http://www.denverbroncos.com/page.php?id=334&storyID=6810

Great article.

This seems like the 2nd or 3rd time that we've plucked someone right out from under the Cowboys' noses.  Tatum, MoClo, and Thomas...hopefully the last one turns out a lot better than the other two.

Hawks expected to sign 11
Posted by Mike Sando @ 06:00:40 pm
Players expected to sign free-agent contracts with Seattle: WR Joe Fernandez, Fresno State; FS Patrick Ghee, Wake Forest; RB Kenny James, Washington; LB Cameron Jensen, BYU; C Nick Jones, Georgia; DB Tim Mixon, Cal; TE Joe Newton, Oregon State; WR Logan Payne, Minnesota; P Kyle Stringer, Boise State; DE Nu'u Tafisi, Cal; and SS C.J. Wallace, Washington.

--I really like the Mixon, Newton, Tafisi, and Wallace signings.

BRONCOS WANT JOHNSON

A reader tells us that there's a rumor being reported on 950 AM in Denver that the Broncos are trying to make a play for the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, in an effort to land receiver Calvin Johnson.

A source with knowledge of the discussions tells us that the rumor is dead-on accurate, and that an offer has been made by the Broncos to the Lions.

Per the rumor and based on what we've heard, the Broncos have offered their first-round, second-round, and third-round pick in the 2007 draft and their first-rounder in 2008 for the No. 2 spot.

The Lions, we're told, are concerned that the No. 21 overall spot would put them too low to land one of the players whom they covet.  The Lions' goal in trading down is/has been to get more picks, and to still get one of the players they want, but at a lower salary slot.  

So the deal might hinge on the ability of the Lions to line up another deal that would allow them to move back up a bit.

The Broncos hold the No. 21 overall pick in round one, the No. 56 overall pick (No. 24 in round two), and the No. 70 and No. 86 overall picks (No. 6 and No. 23, respectively, in round two).  We don't know which of the third-rounders has been offered.

Under the trade chart, the deal might favor the Lions.  But different teams value picks from the next year's draft differently; some teams downgrade the points by a full round, making a 2007 first-rounder the equivalent of a 2008 secon-rounder.  The other problem here is that no one will know where the Broncos draft in round one until the 2007 season ends.

The entire deal would be contingent on the Raiders not drafting Calvin Johnson with the No. 1 overall pick.  We're currently told that the Raiders are expected to strike a deal on a contract with quarterback JaMarcus Russell before Saturday.  

However, the fact that former Raiders coach/current Broncos coach Mike Shanahan apparently has a bee in his butt for Johnson could cause Raiders owner Al Davis to think twice about whether he would prefer to have Johnson on his team -- or to have to face him twice per year.

profootballtalk.com

Wow...I would go berserk, but in a very good way, if we got our hands on CJ.

He is the best wideout to come out in my time, and maybe the best offensive prospect as well.

Thoughts?

Making the case for Alan Branch

Falling fast down draft boards, the ex-Michigan defensive tackle serves as a reminder for why scouts should focus on game film

By Mike Beacom
April 22, 2007

The four months that exist between the close of the college football season and the NFL draft can be a miserable place to live for a football player.

Scrutiny is the vulture that rips apart the flesh of the highly touted prospect, needling and prodding in search of weak spots. And, the bigger the prospect, the bigger the magnifying glass he is under, and the more examining NFL teams need to do in order to justify their sizable investment.

But these past few months weren't supposed to be so cruel to Alan Branch, a 6-foot-6, 330-pound defensive tackle out of the University of Michigan. Branch left college a year early because he was told he was a can't-miss top-10 pick, the kind of player defenses build around for a decade. His football film was testimony to that.

But what someone like Branch has accomplished on the field often has little to do with why his stock falls this time of year, and no prospect in the 2007 NFL draft class has fallen as far as Branch has. The reasons are trivial, but then again no one has ever said that pro football's evaluation process was a fair or perfect system.

Argument One: Branch has stress fractures that have league sources concerned

Several reports surfaced last week, one from a longtime NFL reporter, about the presence of stress fractures in Branch's lower legs. Branch's camp questions those reports, however. His agent, Ben Dogra, asked three NFL teams this week about the report. All three told Dogra they were not concerned, he says.

"We can't comment on it because we don't know anything about it," says Dogra, who admits that Branch did have shin splints (considered common for larger linemen) while at Michigan, but that they never kept him off the field. "Could he play if both of his legs were fractured? It all just doesn't make sense to me."

Approximately 40 prospects were asked to return to Indianapolis in late March for a second medical examination. Branch was not one of them.

Argument Two: Branch took too many plays off at Michigan

Several analysts have suggested that after reviewing game film from last season, it became apparent Branch was not playing at 100 percent on every down. Usually such a tag is reserved for prima-donna skill-position types, but in the case of Branch, it indirectly suggests he is somewhat of a lazy player.

Not true, he says.

"It's funny to me. Being a 335-pound guy who averages 60-65 plays a game ... my gas tank isn't infinite, (but) I go hard every play."

Branch was a big reason why Michigan's defense allowed only 43.4 rushing yards per game, and five scores. Without his presence, the Wolverines would not have experienced that level of success.

Says Pro Football Weekly draft analyst Nolan Nawrocki, "He rarely left the field in college. ... Did Branch take some plays off? Yes. Show me a defensive lineman his size who does not take off plays, especially one that consistently took as many snaps as Branch did."

Adds Dogra, "He played 80-85 percent of the time. He's the one guy (Michigan) didn't rotate."

Argument Three: Branch does not take care of his body, and could be someone who eventually eats himself out of a job

This label comes from pre-draft workouts, from which at least a few scouts have walked away disappointed. Some suggested Branch looked sluggish during Michigan's pro day on March 16. According to a report filed by Gil Brandt, a former NFL personnel whiz and an analyst for NFL.com, "Kansas City defensive line coach Tim Krumrie worked Branch hard during the position drills, and the scouts there said Branch did not look like he was in very good shape."

It is obvious why this is a concern for someone carrying as much weight as Branch. Remember Gilbert Brown? Wisconsin-based Burger Kings used to advertise the Gilbert Burger, a triple Whopper with all the fixings. Late in his career, on the few occasions when he could find his way below the 400-pound mark, Green Bay would roll Brown out onto the field so that he could eat up a minimum of two blockers (not literally ... at least, we don't think literally) on every down he was able to play.

Branch, however, is no Gilbert Brown. Not even close. He is only slightly heavier than Tennessee's Albert Haynesworth, and it's fair to point out that when linemen are paid in dollars instead of in the form of a scholarship, it's easier to get them to listen to staff nutritionists. Even so, Branch is barely outside of the realm of ideal playing weight for a defensive tackle, if he is at all.

"He is large," Dogra says, "and yet he ran as fast, if not faster than most of the defensive tackles that were 20 and 30 pounds lighter than him."

Argument Four: Branch does not have enough of a mean streak to play the DT position in the NFL

After conducting sit-down interviews, several scouts suggested that Branch was too mild-mannered. Defensive tackles are supposed to own the same gritty demeanor that coaches expect out of their interior offensive linemen.

"I'm not soft-spoken on the field," Branch admits.

Dogra makes a comparison. "We represent Brian Dawkins," he says. "Brian is one of the softest-spoken guys you'll meet, but when he puts that helmet on ..."

Nawrocki's best argument to support Branch is something scouts seem to be overlooking. Branch is still, in many ways, developing -- as a defensive tackle and as a big-bodied individual. That statement can't be said of every DT prospect, and certainly not somebody as accomplished as Branch.

"I think a lot of evaluators underestimate how much he has grown in a short amount of time and how much he is still growing into his body and getting comfortable playing at 330 pounds," Nawrocki says. "He was a tight end in high school and returned punts. He still has time to finish maturing physically. He's still learning how to use his body. He will become more coordinated and play with more balance in time."

What Branch claims should matter most to teams considering him on April 28 is who he is as a football player. He does not run from being called a soft-spoken guy because he says he is one -- off the field. And he doesn't worry about making every tackle so long as he is playing a role in making every play.

"If I'm doing my job and the linebackers are getting all of the tackles and I don't get any, that's fine with me," Branch says.

"There are different kinds of defensive tackles," he adds. "Some make plays, some fill holes. I feel I can do both.

"I'm the type of player that can hold down the line where a team has more freedom with the linebackers -- have them flow or cheat outside or blitz. I'm a defender a team can depend on."

Any regrets about leaving early now that he has seen how ugly the next level can be?

"The only thing I regret about leaving early was that I didn't get to beat Ohio State," he says.

Now that sounds like an answer scouts should make note of.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDraft/Draft+Extras/2007/beacom042207.htm

I don't mean to steal anyone's thunder (Ohno), but I'm wondering what MHR'ers think about prospects in the draft, on our team, on the market, etc.

I'm assuming that DJ will indeed be moved inside, but I'm not sure how Bate's values his SAM's (in terms of 2-down players or coverage-oriented, etc).  Regardless of how he's used, a replacement is needed on the strongside.

In the draft, the consensus I get has Stewart Bradley as the best available SAM.  His only major concern is durability, but he brings everything else to the table.  He would add a blitzing presence to our LB corps too, which is something we lack IMO.

Stephen Nicholas is somewhat intriguing because of his large upper body and blitzing ability.

I see a lot of Bronco fans plugging for Willis, but really, what's the point?  Have they just forgotten the last two years?  Regardless of Willis the football player and how good he is, I just don't think he's a fit.

In-house, there's Cameron Vaughn and Nate Webster.  I'm sure either could match, or better, the production of Donnie Spragan of '04.

Vaughn seems like an adequate fit, because he was more of an attacking, interior LB at LSU than the undersized weakside player.

The name I've read most in connection with replacing Wilson is Edgerton Hartwell.  Given his size and strength, he could fit in as a two-down player IMO.  He should also come at a bargain price, due to his injury history and lackluster Atlanta years.

So...?

At any rate, I'm hoping that we go for the bargain basement player who can come in and play a role.  I don't think we need the big name rook, and Bradley on the late 1st day is about as high as I'm willing to go.

Any other solid SAM prospects I'm missing?

Would Ginn Look Good in Orange and Blue? Plain and simple, what would your reaction be if Denver ended up selecting Ted Ginn in the first round?  The consensus I get at other boards is hardly positive, but I'm wondering what ya'll think (didn't want to hijack K TempesT's thread too much).

Basically, I would not be opposed to Ginn at all, especially if Branch, Moss, etc. were either unavailable or no longer necessary (Jenkins, Rogers, etc.).  I really like what he brings to this team, both as a returner and as a receiver.

PRO'S:

1.  "Speed at receiver."

Ginn would bring a new skillset to the receiving corps.  Marshall, Walker, Rod, and Stokely are all strong intermediate and short-route runners.  While both Walker and Marshall are capable of making the deep reception, they are often contested because they don't have the true long-speed necessary to separate.

Ginn would give us a true field-stretcher and open up a lot of other options, on the field and in the playbook.  One can only imagine how he would do paired up with Cutler's arm.  Look at how Bernard Berrian exploded onto the scene this year...and now look at his quarterback.  Look at our quarterback...and picture him throwing to Ginn.  Got it?  To be honest, I'm beginning to get the sense that people underrate his speed and explosiveness and how they could translate to the NFL playing field.

I've long been a proponent for adding more depth at WR through this year's draft.  While I don't see the glaring need I once did, Stokely looks like a typical one year rental and Rod's clearly on his last legs.

2. "Return ability."

We all know how bad our return units were last year, and have been for some time now. Despite the re-signing of Quincy Morgan, I think it's blatantly obvious and upgrade could be made.

There's no doubt in my mind that Ginn's return skills will translate to the pro game.

In 2005, Chicago's return units were below league average.  Add Devin Hester, and you suddenly have the premier ST unit in the NFL.  Chicago's special teams went from costing their team points to actually being worth 19 (kick return) and 12 ( punt return) points in scoring, to their offense, above the average NFL special teams unit (Football outsiders).  Better field position equates to more points scored, period.

CON'S:

1. "Does he fit?"

With the signing of Daniel Graham, leaving us with two quality TE's, there's obviously reason to believe that we may be returning to the 2 TE sets of the Sharpe/Carswell/Chamberlain days.  Scheffler can shift outside or into the slot, as well.

Domenik Hixon could put the kibosh on this entire idea, too.  Maybe the FO views him as the answer?  At any rate, he's an unknown quantity to me, so I can't really look at him as an impact (or non-impact) player at this moment.

Even though I've seen some say that we ran 3 WR sets 50% of the time after Cutler took over, I'm a little hesitant here.

2. "One dimensionality."

While I always cringe at anti-Ginn's screaming "He's another Lelie!" at every opportunity (simply because it's unoriginal...heh), I can't deny the possibility.  Off the top of my head, the slim speedster-type hasn't had a great track-record in the league, so far.

But, even if Ginn doesn't surpass the Lelie-ceiling (or "floor", however you want to look at it), I still think his return ability will balance some of the negative.  And, if properly used, I don't see how being a Lelie with excellent return ability is so inherently bad, anyways.  It's not the greatest possible outcome (I was thinking Lee Evans with return skillz is pretty darn good), but it's not the worst thing in the world either (I must say, I was a bit of a Lelie homer). I actually think he has more ability to catch the short pass than Lelie did, and then do something with it with his outrageous open-field ability.

Summary:

Simply put, I see Ginn as a package of Devin Hesteresque return skills with years of experience at WR.

If Devin Hester played 3 years of WR at Miami, would you spend a first rounder on him?  Do you value the boost to the return game and his potential at WR, or are you DL 8 days a week?

Just wondering.

Could Dielman Be the Answer?  

By Doug Farrar
Seahawks.NET
Posted Feb 26, 2007

On Sunday, FoxSports.com's John Czarnecki reported that the Seahawks are preparing to offer Chargers guard Kris Dielman a contract that would pay the 26-year-old lineman somewhere in the neighborhood of $6.5 million per year. When free agency begins on March 2nd, Dielman will be an unrestricted free agent, and he would be a major component in a Seahawks offensive line in desperate need of a re-do.

After fielding the NFL's best line in 2005, the Seahawks lost guard Steve Hutchinson to the Minnesota Vikings in a now-infamous "poison pill" deal when Seattle gave Hutchinson the transition tag instead of the franchise tender. The money-saving move proved disastrous when Minnesota signed the elite guard to an offer sheet that would prove impossible for Seattle to match.

Though the post-Hutchinson line still featured future Hall of Fame left tackle Walter Jones, Pro Bowl center Robbie Tobeck and excellent right tackle Sean Locklear, the Hutchinson deal both accelerated and confirmed the real value of the best guards in the business. The Seahawks went through a rotation at just about every position in the line, due to injuries and effectiveness. Hutchinson's replacement, Floyd "Pork Chop" Womack, couldn't elude nagging injuries throughout the year. Rookie Rob Sims from Ohio proved very effective in Womack's place - he's a potential star as Locklear was in his first year.

The Seahawks' offensive line finished 30th in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards statistic in 2006, after finishing sixth in 2005. In Adjusted sack rate, Seattle dropped from ninth to 28th in the same single season. At one point late in 2006, the Seahawks actually ranked dead last in ALY. Shaun Alexander went from NFL MVP and touchdown champ to injured, sub-1,000-yard rusher. Matt Hasselbeck missed four games with his own injury and wound up running for his life more than ever before. It wasn't all due to Hutchinson's departure, but it was close enough to let Seattle know that their formerly lockstep system of guard devaluation wasn't working anymore.

While they struggled in 2006, the virtual mirror image of Seattle's 2005 team offense thrived in San Diego. LaDanian Tomlinson broke Alexander's single-season touchdown record, the Chargers finished the season with the NFL's best record, and Dielman was at the heart of it all. His presence was a primary reason that rookie left tackle Marcus McNeill had such a wonderful initial NFL campaign, and San Diego finished 2006 as the top team in Adjusted Line Yards, and the ninth-best in Adjusted Sack Rate.

Unlike the Seahawks, the Chargers seemed to understand the value of their left guard before the 2006 season, when they extended the fist-round tender to Dielman, who was then a Restricted Free Agent, and signed him to a one-year deal. Dielman played tight end and on the defensive line at Indiana University for former Chargers offensive coordinator and current Miami Dolphins coach Cam Cameron, and signed with San Diego as an undrafted free agent on May 2, 2003. Over his first two seasons, Dielman went from the practice squad to the special teams unit to a few game reps at his current position. By 2005, his stock was rising, and he started the final 14 games of the seasons at left guard. 2006 was truly his breakout year, as he was the cornerstone of the league's most statistically effective line.

The Seahawks, having learned their lesson in this matter, may be about to teach the Chargers the same class: How to Lose Your Undervalued Guard Without Really Trying. And if the Seahawks are to have any hope of returning to the Super Bowl after an off-year, they must get their offensive line in order. Signing Kris Dielman, who would certainly be the best available free agent guard, would be the optimal solution.

Free, Scout.com article.  http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=211&p=2&c=622152

Broncos dismiss Coyer
Defensive coordinator fired after 9-7 team misses playoffs
By Bill Williamson
Denver Post Staff Writer
DenverPost.com
Article Last Updated:01/10/2007 12:08:05 AM MST

Larry Coyer understood the circumstances when he was promoted to defensive coordinator of the Broncos. When things go bad, people in power are in danger.

Four years later, the danger zone caught up to Coyer, who was fired in the first major move by the Broncos after their late-season collapse. In addition to Coyer, the team also let go of defensive line/tackles coach Andre Patterson.

Down the stretch of a 9-7 season, Denver's defense wore down. The Broncos lost five of their final seven games and didn't qualify for the playoffs after a 7-2 start.

The defense was torrid at the start, with the Broncos allowing only 44 points in the first six games. The defense didn't allow a touchdown in the first 11 quarters of the season.

The Broncos ended up ranked No. 14 in the 32-team NFL in yards allowed, and gave up at least 20 points in eight of their final 10 games. In all four of their home losses, the Broncos blew second- half leads.

Potential candidates coach Mike Shanahan might consider to replace Coyer are former Miami interim coach Jim Bates, former Atlanta coach Jim Mora and Denver secondary coach Bob Slowik.

Bates is sure to get a close look as the fourth defensive coordinator under Shanahan in Denver. Shanahan long has admired Bates, considered one of the better defensive minds in the NFL. Bates left Green Bay after the 2005 season after coach Mike Sherman was fired. Bates also is considered a candidate for the Dolphins' head coaching job.

"I'm looking at a couple of things," Bates said. "I'm a free agent, and I may look to jump back into the league."

One of Bates' sons, Jeremy, is an offensive assistant coach with the Broncos. Another son, James, resides in Denver. Bates attended the Broncos' home game against Cincinnati on Dec. 24.

Coyer, 63, met with Shanahan on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Coyer was the Broncos' linebackers coach from 2000-02 before taking over for Ray Rhodes as defensive coordinator.

Coyer and Patterson are the fourth and fifth coaches Shana- han has fired in 12 seasons as Broncos' coach. Shanahan fired defensive coordinator Greg Robinson in 2001, secondary coach David Gibbs in 2004 and defensive line coach Keith Millard in 2005.

The team issued a statement announcing Coyer no longer is defensive coordinator, but offered no direct statement from Shanahan. Patterson's firing was not announced.

Patterson was with the team for the past two seasons. He was previously a coach in Cleveland, where he coached several defensive linemen Denver since has brought in.

"I appreciated my time here," Patterson said. "I loved being a Bronco."

Coyer released a written statement on his departure. Like Patterson, he expressed appreciation for his time in Denver.

"There is no animosity," Coyer said in a written statement. "I appreciate everything, and it's been a great ride."

Coyer pointed toward issues on his side of the ball.

"Make no mistake, I was very aware that some hard changes had to be made in several areas and as the season worked its way to the end, and then after it ended, I made my concerns known as it pertained to the defense," Coyer said. "Prior to the season's end, I opted to put all my efforts into the game-planning, and at least we were able to win two of the last three games.

"Did we always coach and play to our best ability? No. No one does it ... There is always room to do better. However, I am not the person judging my decision to put all my game-planning efforts into the last three games while I was laying a plan for changes I would like to see at season's end or the decision to replace me."

The Broncos spent most of the season using a four-man pass rush from the defensive line instead of using a blitz-heavy attack the team used in 2005.

The firing surprised defensive tackle Demetrin Veal.

"I didn't see that coming," Veal said. "My first reaction is shock. When something like this happens, I guess there's always questions, but they must have felt like this was a good idea."

Moving forward, the focus likely will be on Bates, Mora and Slowik. Shanahan previously has considered Mora, fired last week as the Falcons' coach. Slowik, with Denver the past two seasons, has been a defensive coordinator for Green Bay, Cleveland and Chicago.

Footnote

Quarterback Preston Parsons was signed to a future contract. Parsons was on the Broncos' practice squad last season.

LINK

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_4722152

Cutler gets the call
Source: Shanahan plans to start rookie at QB
By Mike Klis
Denver Post Staff Writer
Article Last Updated:11/25/2006 03:42:28 PM MST

Heading into his coaching-staff meeting today, Mike Shanahan is planning to make Jay Cutler the Broncos' starting quarterback for the Sunday, Dec. 3 game against Seattle, sources close to the situation confirmed.

Cutler, a rookie from Vanderbilt, will replace veteran Jake Plummer, who had started the Broncos' previous 46 games, including playoffs, dating back to the 2003 season.

The immediate reasons for making the switch are hardly complicated. Despite a 7-4 overall record, the Broncos are coming off arguably their worst all-around performance this season, a 19-10 loss Thursday at Kansas City, and appear in need of a jolt after losing two in a row for the first time in two years.

The extra time to mentally regroup and prepare for the defending NFC-champion Seahawks before a nationally televised audience at home further convinced Shanahan the timing is right to end one era and begin another, according to sources.

As of today, no players had been informed of a change, most notably Plummer and Cutler, who could not be reached for comment. The players are off until they have to report back to practice on Monday.

Although starting a rookie quarterback so late in a season as the playoff race intensifies carries uncertainty and risk, the Broncos don't necessarily need Cutler to duplicate the fast starts of Dan Marino or Ben Roethlisberger. The only immediate expectation on Cutler is to outperform Plummer.

Entering games Sunday, Plummer is ranked 29th among NFL quarterbacks with a 70.5 rating. He had thrown 12 interceptions against 11 touchdown passes, and has a relatively meager 6.33 yards per pass attempt.

The plan is to make the change permanent. Plummer is expected to finish out the season as a No. 2 quarterback for the first time in his 10-year NFL career.

http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story/9823256

Broncos ready to go with Cutler    

By Adam Schefter
Special to NFL.com

(Nov. 22, 2006) -- Shortly after the holiday season begins, so will the Jay Cutler era.

After Jake Plummer starts Thursday night against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Broncos are likely to turn over their starting quarterback job to Cutler, their highly touted 2006 first-round draft choice, who then would make his debut on Sunday night, Dec. 3, against the Seattle Seahawks, according to sources close to the situation.

The Cutler era very well might have started sooner had the Broncos not been working on an abbreviated schedule this week, in one of the NFL's toughest road venues. Denver plays at Kansas City in the first live regular-season game televised on NFL Network and one team official said he thought the Broncos would have started Cutler if the team were playing on a Sunday instead of a Thursday.

But just as the short week prevented Cutler from making his debut this week, it will greatly enhance his chances of starting next week, giving the Broncos 10 days to prep their rookie quarterback for his first NFL start at home against the Seahawks.

Already, Broncos coach Mike Shanahan has shown he is not afraid to shake up his offense. At various points this season, Shanahan has benched his starting running backs, Tatum Bell and Mike Bell, his right offensive tackle, George Foster, and his tight end, Tony Scheffler.

Quarterback is the next position that will be hit with a change, and it will be a seismic one in NFL circles. One AFC general manager, upon studying game film of the Broncos offense this week, said he believes that Shanahan has had to tone down the aggressiveness of his play-calls out of fear that Plummer will make more mistakes. He certainly has made enough of them this season, throwing 11 interceptions compared to 10 touchdowns.

Two Sundays ago against the Raiders, Plummer threw three interceptions, causing the Broncos to continue contemplating a quarterback change. In Denver's next game, Plummer played even more poorly, throwing an interception and fumbling twice in the fourth quarter, including once after the Broncos called timeout to go over their play-call.

Now the Broncos believe the time has come to turn over their offense -- and really their franchise -- to Cutler. Broncos assistant coaches who have repeatedly watched the 6-foot-4, 225-pound Cutler through the preseason and into the regular season say their quarterback is more poised and polished than any rookie they have seen. His disposition is said to be perfect for the position. But there still remains the question of how he will play in games.

If the preseason is any judge, it should be superbly. Cutler completed 40 of 62 passes (64.5 percent) for 561 yards, four touchdowns, one interception and a 108.3 quarterback rating. During the same preseason, Plummer completed 19 of 34 passes (55.9 percent) for 226 yards, one touchdown and no interception for an 86.2 quarterback rating.

Plummer's quarterback rating this season has plummeted to 69.7, the lowest it has been in Denver and his worst figure since his last season at Arizona in 2002. He is now the 29th-rated quarterback in the league, trailing such quarterbacks as Tampa Bay's Bruce Gradkowski, Seattle's Seneca Wallace and Cleveland's Charlie Frye.

At his press conference Tuesday, Plummer said defiantly: "There have been people who have tried to run me out of here since I got here. If I listened to that stuff, I wouldn't still be here leading this team. Hey, one day that will all come true. Until then, sorry."

But "then" is coming quick. Thursday night is now expected to be Plummer's last start for an indefinite period and maybe his final one as the Broncos quarterback.

MORE BRONCOS NEWS
Broncos center Tom Nalen filed an appeal Wednesday on the $25,000 fine the NFL handed down to him for blocking Chargers defensive end Igor Olshansky. The league also fined Olshansky $10,000 for punching Nalen.

Nalen and the Broncos believe their appeal will be successful on various fronts. For starters, while Nalen's blocking technique could be questioned, it also was perfectly legal. Nalen fell to Olshansky's knees on a play in which Plummer audibled, and the Broncos center thought his quarterback was throwing a go-route to Rod Smith.

Also, other offensive linemen have been fined $5,000 for the same type of block that Nalen used on Olshansky.

But one of Nalen's most interesting arguments is this: The Broncos have video of other plays in which Olshansky head butts Nalen on one play; punches Denver guard Cooper Carlisle in the kidney on another; and grabs the facemask of Broncos running back Damien Nash on the third. NFL Network replayed those videos Wednesday night.

Denver feels that Olshansky was deserving of a stiffer fine than Nalen, but the league felt otherwise.

STAT OF THE WEEK
Maybe it shouldn't be surprising that Denver is turning to Cutler.

Three rookie quarterbacks won their games last week -- Tampa Bay's Gradkowski, Arizona's Matt Leinart and Tennessee's Vince Young. They became the first rookie quarterback trio in a non-shortened season to win in the same week since Week 14 of 1983 when Denver's John Elway, Miami's Dan Marino and New England's Tony Eason performed the feat.

Devoe's cut opens up spot on 53-man roster
By Mike Klis
Denver Post Staff Writer
DenverPost.com
Article Last Updated:11/10/2006 02:35:28 PM MST

The Broncos released receiver Todd Devoe today, a move that left a second opening on their 53-man roster.

Another vacancy was created when safety Sam Brandon suffered a season-ending knee injury Sunday at Pittsburgh and was moved to the injured reserve list.

The Broncos are planning on filling their roster voids by moving up two players from their practice squad prior to their game Sunday at Oakland.

Devoe, 26, bounced between practice squads with Baltimore, Tennessee and Miami before catching on with the Broncos. He had nine receptions last season, including a 44-yard catch-and-run touchdown to help the Broncos put away the Philadelphia Eagles.

This season, Devoe hasn't been activated on the game-day roster since an opening loss at St. Louis.

Also, the Broncos downgraded to doubtful linebacker Ian Gold (hamstring), and defensive ends Ebenezer Ekuban (thigh) and Patrick Chukwurah (hamstring) on their injury report and Broncos coach Mike Shanahan said he did believe those players would play in Oakland.
---------------------

Interesting.

I liked Devoe a lot, so I'm kinda bummed he got cut.  But, in reality he wasn't doing anything now and wasn't going to get a chance to do anything in the future with the emergence of Marshall, Kircus, and Clark.

What's interesting is that we now have two open spots.  We currently have two DT's on our PS, and I'd like to see one of them up.  Hixon apparently looked very impressive over his first week of practice, so maybe he's on the way up as well.

[editor's note, by TheSportsGuru]Thanks WABronco for posting this. That's the funny thing about a 2 1/2 year old on Halloween, she just doesn't understand....:)

Denver re-ups DT Veal through 2008

The Broncos locked up one of their key, young defensive players by extending the contract of defensive tackle Demetrin Veal.

Veal, who has taken over for injured defensive tackle Gerard Warren the past two weeks, is committed to the Broncos through 2008 after signing the two-year extension. Veal was scheduled to be a restricted free agent in the offseason and an unrestricted free agent in 2008. Had not Veal extended his contract, teams could have signed him this spring, but the Broncos could have matched other offers.

Both sides decided to get the deal done now.

"It's a good deal for both sides," said Veal's agent, Al Irby. "Demetrin loves it there and loves being a part of things there."

Irby declined to disclose the terms of the contract. Veal, 25, was signed off the Baltimore Ravens' practice squad in December 2004. He became a key reserve last season, and is Denver's third defensive tackle. Veal started against Indianapolis on Sunday and spelled Warren after he was injured in Cleveland last week.

Excellent move.  He's a perfect fit as a no. 2/3 tackle, and he's still very young.  He's as no-name as they get, but it's nice to have a no-name worth re-signing, so to speak.  Gotta have a few no-names on a good team...

Mike Bell likely to be main ball carrier against Pitt

Once again, the Broncos have a big Bell and a fast Bell.

Which Bell is more likely to ring Sunday in Pittsburgh against the struggling, if still defending, Super Bowl champion Steelers?

Most likely, Mike Bell will toll. He's the power-back Bell. The speedy Bell, Tatum Bell, has been slowed by two sprained big toes.

Tatum Bell might play against the Steelers. He might even start. But even he sounds resigned to a significantly, if temporarily, reduced role until his feet get healthy.

"I would expect Mike to get in there and try to help me get back," Tatum Bell said. "The way he's running, hopefully he can carry it on through this next week. There won't be no drop-off if I'm not in there because we know Mike is going to come in there and get it done."

This is good news in my eyes.  I shudder at the thought of what Tatum would do, with two foot injuries, against that defense.  We need power for this game, we need physicality.

Heck, if he's still "sore" after Friday, what's the point of even activating him for Sunday?  Get Cobbs off the bench, or give some more carries to Cecil Sapp.  We can't afford any of those cheap,  shoe-string tackles (or "untouched-tackles") this week...

--Oh, and Brian Clark is now the primary KR, taking over for Quincy Morgan.  Hooray for lame-duckedness!

BTW, Guru...I'm gunnin' for your job!

:)

[editor's note, by TheSportsGuru]Thanks for linking this up, WABronco!!!

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm...089700,00.html

ROSTER MOVE: The Broncos placed tackle Matt Lepsis on injured reserve, opening a roster spot. They signed receiver Brian Clark from the practice squad to the 53-player roster.

The Packers, who placed receiver Robert Ferguson on injured reserve, had tried to sign Clark before the Broncos made the move.

Any team can sign a player off any practice squad if the player is signed to the 53-player roster.

Green Bay claimed former Portland State receiver Shaun Bodiford off waivers from the Detroit Lions.

He was really getting some hype during camp.  Apparently he showed surprising toughness over the middle and the ability to actually go over the middle (sorry Ash).  Plus he's got that speeeed...

[editor's note, by TheSportsGuru]Thanks WABronco for getting this up here. I saw this last night but was EXHAUSTED after the game. More about my experiences later today! TOo bad for Merriman...Looks like the Chargers wanted to get one last divisional game out of him before the suspension, and it totally backfired!!!


Now we know why Merriman look like this...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2635475

Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman has been notified he will be suspended for four games for violating the NFL's steroids policy, league and team sources told ESPN's Chris Mortensen.

Merriman's positive test was "definitely for steroids ... not one of those supplement deals" said a source with knowledge of Merriman's suspension.

Merriman's suspension originally was to be announced last Tuesday when two other players -- the Falcons' Mark Lehr and the Lions' Shaun Rogers -- were suspended for violating the policy. But Merriman reserved the right to appeal his suspension, so it was not announced.

Neither the Chargers, nor Merriman, could be reached for comment Sunday night.

Earlier Sunday the Chargers lost to the Chiefs 30-27 in Kansas City.
---------------

Interesting.  Their D takes another hit, and this only makes things easier for the Nov. 19th meeting.

OhNo, Psycho, or any other draft guru out there--hasn't Maryland produced steroid-users before?  I'm thinking of a few names but I just can't remember them at the moment.

Interesting piece in the Post today

Ernster may cash in on efforts

By Mike Klis
Denver Post Staff Writer
DenverPost.com

All of Broncoland knows why punter Todd Sauerbrun has been missing from the first three games of the season.

Hardly considered, perhaps, is the possibility Sauerbrun could be gone for good.

There are some intangibles besides net punting average that are pointing heavily in the favor of the Broncos keeping Paul Ernster.

Start with the intangible that runs side- by-side with performance in today's world of professional sports: money. Sauerbrun was going to make $1.395 million for a 17-week season until he was suspended four games after testing positive for ephedrine. The penalty will cost him $32,823 by the time the Broncos are finished playing Baltimore on Oct. 9, leaving a prorated salary of $1.066 million should he become activated for the rest of the season.

Ernster is making the NFL's first-year minimum $275,000 and is scheduled for $360,000 next year - when Sauerbrun's contract calls for $1.5 million.

Financially, Ernster has the clear edge.

Then there is the issue of Sauerbrun's checkered past. A second positive test would result in a one-year ban. Would the Broncos risk keeping Sauerbrun, 33, and letting go of Ernster, who is nine years younger and therefore figures to have a longer future ahead?

"I can't look at it like it like this next game is what it's all for," Ernster said. "I've got to look at it as it's just the next game and I have to do everything I can to help our team get the best field position we can. I'm not thinking about when Sauerbrun comes back or anything like that. What's going to happen is going to happen. Maybe they'll keep us both, I don't know. I'm not going to think about it too much."

At the moment, there isn't much question Sauerbrun is the more accomplished punter. He's a three-time Pro Bowl player who ranked eighth in the NFL last season with a 43.8-yard gross average and seventh with a 38.0-yard net.

But while Ernster ranks further down the NFL's punting lists, he has a 44.6-yard average and 36.2-yard net.

All guts and Gatorade

How much chuck can Patrick Chukwurah upchuck before Tom Brady can chuck it past an upchucking Chukwurah?

"It was all Gatorade and water," Chukwurah said. "My pregame meal was already long digested."

In what may be remembered as twisted symbolism for a relentless Broncos defense that has allowed just one touchdown through the first three games, Chukwurah vomited while lined up at his right defensive end position Sunday night at Gillette Stadium, then attempted to rush in on Brady, New England's quarterback, after the ball was snapped.

Brady delivered a 7-yard completion, while Chukwurah's persistence delivered inspiration.

"I really and truly don't get what the big deal is," Chukwurah said. "Wouldn't any player do that? Let me ask you, what would be the normal thing to do?"

Good question. Bend over and wait for the play to end?

"The game don't wait for you," Chukwurah said. "You've got to go when the game goes."

He added he never previously had such a physical reaction during an athletic contest - not as a kid, and never as the upshot to pregame jitters.

"I think what happened was my mouth was so dry and I was sucking on my mouthpiece so I could get some saliva and I kind of gagged on it," Chukwurah said.

Footnotes

Middle linebacker Al Wilson was held out of the team's workout Tuesday because of a strained hamstring suffered during the pregame warm-ups Sunday. Broncos coach Mike Shanahan said if the team had a game this Sunday, Wilson would play. ... Rod Smith, who missed some plays Sunday as a precaution because of recent concussions, participated in the team workout Tuesday. ... Running back Cedric Cobbs is expected to be out through the Baltimore game with a sprained right ankle. ... Tuesday was the one and only day the Broncos will practice this week. ... The Broncos worked out defensive backs Eric Hill of Colorado State, Steve Car- gile of Columbia, Von Hutchins of Mississippi, Jerrell Pippens of Nebraska, Harrison Smith of California and Lenny Williams of Southern. ... Charlie Adams, the receiver cut last week by the Broncos, worked out Tuesday for the Minnesota Vikings, who are interested in him as a returner. Houston also is interested. ... Former Broncos receiver Darius Watts worked out with the Vikings.

I know, I know...it's way too early to even talk about this kinda stuff.

But, I'm wondering what you guys think about Michael Lewis, Philly's starting SS.  He's in his last year and Philly has shown little interest in re-signing him so far.

He's got size, decent athleticism and coverage ability.  He can definitely support the run and he's an intimidating presence.  I think he'll only be 27 going into next year.  Colorado connections are always great...

I imagine he could play either safety spot here in Denver.

Thoughts? Edited to fix 2nd grade spelling

Chiefs Offense

Offensive Tendencies:

3+ WR-51% (11th in NFL)
4+ WR-16% (7th)
2+ TE-39% (3rd)
Single back-57% (8th)
Run with FB-60% (28th--goodbye Tony Richardson)
Run with 2+ TE-48% (4th)
Max protect-11% (20th)
Screen passes-7% (5th)

-Running Game

The strength of this Chiefs team is the ground game and probably will be for as long as Larry Johnson is in KC. Despite the loss of Willie Roaf, they are still a dangerous running team thanks to their tough interior (Shields, Waters, Wiegmann).

KC has been 3rd in the league in Adjusted Line Yards (4.62 last year) for the last three years. They are an efficient running team and they can also ram it down your throat (solid numbers in power situations) if need be.

If you had to guess, which side of the line would you say was the most productive? If you guessed Jordan Black on the right end, you'd be wrong. Obviously, Willie Roaf was the catalyst of that offensive line. He was an elite tackle in many aspects of the trade. Running behind Roaf, the Chiefs averaged over 5 YPC last year and over 4.8 YPC for the last three years. Losing ol' Willie will undoubtedly hurt their running attack, but how much it will remains to be seen. As Mediator hinted towards, LJ was more or less a non-factor last Sunday. I would agree with him though when he says that one game is not a big enough sample size. Get back to me midway through the season.

As I said earlier, the KC interior consists of three above average players. All three players ranked in the top ten in blocking success percentage as well as YPA at their respective positions.

Larry Johnson was the best Iso runner in the league last year, averaging nearly 8 YPC over 22 isolation plays. He was also a strong sweep runner with 6.8 YPC over 76 sweep runs. However, according to Med, KC struggled on outside runs last Sunday. If the futility on the outside continues, it makes it that much easier to limit Johnson overall.

Both TE's can hold their ground as blockers, but Jason Dunn is perhaps the best run blocking TE in the game. He had a top 5 blocking success percentage in 2005, and his size and power give him an advantage matching up against LB's and DB's. What's interesting though is that Gonzalez had more POA attempts than Dunn did. Obviously, Gonzo doesn't hurt the running game as a blocker.

Bottom line--KC is still a dangerous running team. Don't let one game sway your opinions.

-Passing Game

Well, there isn't much to be said about Damon Huard. The man had thrown only one regular season pass over the past 5 years before Sunday. So, there isn't much in the way of metrics or traditional statistics.

However, we all now that KC is home to two dangerous receivers in Tony Gonzalez and...Eddie Quiterson (did I spell that right?). As much as we hate the man, we must respect him as an offensive threat. He is an explosive receiver (16.2 YPC) who succeeds in the deep area of the field (tied for 4th in deep success percentage), but he also ranked 13th in success percentage in the short zone. He had an above average catch rate as well, catching 63% of the balls thrown his way. Kennison is a legit threat, one who is complemented by another legit threat in Tony Gonzalez (or is it the other way around...hmmm).

Tony Gonzalez is the definition of a complete TE. He ranks in the top 10 in success percentage in all depths (short, medium, deep). He was targeted more than any other KC receiver last year, and he caught 67% of passes thrown his way--also above average. He was surprisingly ineffective in the red-zone last year, catching only 2 TD's on the year. People hint at a falloff, but I think you can look at the guy's track record and say that last year was an aberration. As was mentioned earlier, his blocking elevates him into the complete TE status.

Samie Parker and Dante Hall combine to form an adequate platoon at the no. 2 receiver spot. They combined for just under 1,000 yards and they caught 3 TD's each. Surprisingly, Hall had a much higher play-by-play value than Parker did.

Larry Johnson was a dangerous receiver out of the backfield last year as well. Over 30 catches and an astounding 11 YAC...danger Denver defense, DANGER!

As far as Pass Protection, the Chiefs were rather mediocre using Adjusted Sack Rate and they ranked 15th in the league in that category. Losing Roaf certainly doesn't help the situation. Just going from what I saw last week, Kyle Turley didn't look too hot as a replacement either.

Also, Jordan Black (favorite OL of one Trevor Pryce) just sucks. He was blown out of the water last year in both pass pro and run blocking. I am unaware of Black's status, but I doubt he sees the field this Sunday. For the sake of competitiveness, hopefully that's the case. Just had to get a little bash in there...

Bottom Line--I expect a heavy dose of Larry Johnson on Sunday.

Chiefs Defense

Defensive tendencies:

Sacks by LB-16% (22nd)
Sacks by DB-18% (8th)
Rush 6+-14% (5th)
Rush 7+-5% (3rd)
Rush 3-8% (11th)
CB1 on WR1-56% (6th)
Screens against-6% (5th)

-Against the run

There are only two standout run defenders on the entire defense--those two being Jared Allen and Sammy Knight. Jared Allen had an overall Stop Rate of 90% last year which puts him in the top 10 of that category. One could make the conclusion that Allen's effectiveness against the run was a result of his solid all-around play. I think that's a fair assessment. However, Sammy Knight is another story. Knight made the plays against the run because no one in front of him (aside from Allen) could, consistently anyways. The man made more total plays from the safety position than two of the team's starting LB's and had a higher Run Stop Rate than the starting MLB! Knight is a solid defender against the run and often plays in the box, but I think the statistics are very telling in respect to KC's weak interior defense. Although they've improved in terms of interior run defense, they still ranked in the middle of the pack last year in YPC. To quote KC Joyner, "On many if not most defensive lines, the defensive tackles have better numbers against the run than the defensive ends. That wasn't the case in Kansas City last year."

Kendrell Bell was just an absolute zero last year as the team's weakside `backer. Despite playing on the right side of the D, he made only 41 total plays last year which accounted for a meager 5.4% of the defense's total plays (100th among LB's). To put that in perspective for us Denver fans, that's worse than DJ's disappointing '05...and DJ played the strongside (supposedly)! Bell didn't come through as a pass rusher either--his supposed strong suit. The other two starting LB's were merely average in run defense last year (an average 58% Run Stop Rate for Mitchell), and the numbers suggest that both had a hard time avoiding blocks (especially Johnson--who made only 38 run plays as the SAM). Again, KC Joyner weighs in, "If there were another group of linebackers who had a lower combined success percentage than the Chiefs linebackers, I can't imagine who it could be." So, basically, KC's LB's had a hard time cleaning up the DL's mess.

The secondary, for the most part, is poor against the run. Knight is definitely the best of the group, and he ranked 4th among safeties in Run Stop Rate. As a defensive unit, the Chiefs have ranked 25th or lower defending passes to running backs for four straight seasons. They've ranked 28th or lower for the last three seasons at allowing runs of 10+ yards. If a ball carrier gets in space, KC's D has a hard time bringing them down.

-Against the pass

What's interesting though is Knight's Run plays/pass plays ratio. He made slightly more plays against opposing passing games than he did in the run defense. What gives? He was targeted deep more times than any other strong safety in the league. He also didn't hold up too well, ranking 22nd among run safeties in deep pass success percentage.

Greg Wesley simply is not a starting caliber player. He ranks poorly across the board against the pass and was markedly poor in run defense.

Patrick Surtain was solid in the short and medium area but was a liability against deep passes last year. He was left on an island quite a bit last year thanks to Gunther's blitz-happy scheme, and he allowed almost 2/3 of deep attempts against him to be completed. Bottom line--when the blitz was picked up Surtain didn't hold up.

If Kansas City continues with their press coverage, Ty Law may be able to slow his decline...or at least hide it against Denver. I think it's fair to say that Law was not his former self in NY last year, as he put up a sub par 41% Stop Rate. He was also the favorite target of opposing offenses despite not being matched up against the WR1 exclusively. He did pretty well against the no. 2 guys last year however, as NY's defense as a group ranked 2nd overall in the league against no. 2 receivers.

It remains to be seen what he can do in KC with a below average pass rush--Kansas City ranked 29th in the NFL last year in Adjusted Sack Rate. They have only one player who is a threat as a pass rusher. According to Med, neither DT is an upgrade in that area either, so I don't expect much to change for them this year. Tamba Hali's impact as a rookie remains to be seen.

Disclaimer-I'm unaware of any drastic scheme changes under Solari or even Herm Edwards. I'm assuming Solari won't change too much offensively, and from the sounds of it, Cunningham ran his style of defense on Sunday.

Conclusions

All righty...

I'd say Med, again, did an excellent job in summing up what needs to be done Sunday against the Chiefs, so I'll just offer up some basic, soft-toss stuff.

-Utilize Sam Brandon against Gonzo. Joyner calls Brandon one of the most valuable parts of Denver's D, and for good reason--Brandon has a top 3 overall success percentage against the pass in Joyner's Scientific Football 2006 publication.

-Set up the screens to RB's and TE's. Get our players out in space and force KC's secondary to make the plays.

-Make quick work of KC's soft DL and allow our elite second-level-blocking OL lead the way. POUND THE ROCK.

-Make sure Jake has time against Cunningham's blitz-heavy schemes.

-Rod and Javon...please, beat the press this week.

-Prey on Kendrell Bell's soul....muahahahahaha! Seriously, make him cover Scheff or somethin'.

-DJ can't make the stupid mistakes he made last week. Tackle like Champ. Don't run out of bounds on the far side of the field overpursuing a running play.

-Attack those poor OT's. Stack the middle.

Basic Glossary of terms:

Stop Rate-percentage of plays that constitute a "stop," or preventing a success by the offense (45% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on second down, 100% on third down). Run Stop Rate corresponds to "stopping" running plays. Pass Stop Rate corresponds to "stopping" pass plays where the player who was targeted either forces an incompletion, intercepts the pass, or stops the offensive player from meeting the "success" criteria.

Adjusted Line Yards-basically takes YPC and adjusts it using the team's efficiency in running the ball as well that the run defenses that were faced that year. Overall, it's a better indicator than the traditional YPC statistic.

Adjusted Sack Rate-according to Football Prospectus, "Some teams allow a lot of sacks because they throw a lot of passes; Adjusted Sack Rate accounts for this by dividing sacks by total pass plays. It is also adjusted for situation (sacks are much more common on third down, particularly third-and-long) and opponent." Again, a better indicator than raw sack totals. Works both ways, offense and defense--it's pass attempts faced when figuring defensive Adjusted Sack Rate.

Joyner's terms-success percentage for a pass defender in Joyner's book consists of incompletions and offensive penalties drawn while the defender is in primary coverage.

Everything seems to be rather self explanatory. Nevertheless, if you want help with something, if you think I missed something, or would like me to elaborate, just ask!

Oh, and you'll definitely want to go over and check out Mediator's full scouting report. All material comes from either "Pro Football Prospectus" or KC Joyner's "Scientific Football 2006."

Broncos | Morgan close to an agreement with team
Wed, 13 Sep 2006 19:47:42 -0700

Sean Jensen, of the Pioneer Press, reports free agent WR Quincy Morgan (Steelers) is close to nearing an agreement with the Denver Broncos, according to Morgan's agent.

--------------

Straight off KFFL

Anyways, I like this signing (potential signing).  Solid move in my eyes.  Morgan will probably be the KR and he's got more to offer as a receiver than guys like Kircus, Adams, and probably Devoe.  Good depth signing...

Adam Schefter also reported that Denver is expected to sign Morgan within the next two days.

Check this out over at Football Outsiders!

Any Given Sunday: Rams over Broncos
9/12/2006

by Ned Macey

The Denver Broncos are a perennial playoff team poised to make a run at the Super Bowl. Most analysts expect them to win the AFC West. The St. Louis Rams are a team whose day has passed. Most analysts project them to finish third in their division.

That conventional wisdom was tossed aside as the Broncos offense faltered Sunday, and they fell to the Rams 18-10 in St. Louis. Bronco Nation is soothing itself by recalling last year's Week 1 whipping at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. The Rams are convinced they have a new, powerful defense capable of leading them back into the playoffs. Is it possible they are both right?

Research in Pro Football Prospectus 2006 showed that Week 1 results were no more surprising than any other week. Results that seem surprising, such as perhaps Tampa Bay's shutout loss to Baltimore, prove to be no more than an early sign of the two teams' true qualities.

The article also showed that losses on the road are not nearly as ominous for future performance as home losses. No 13-win team since 1993 has ever lost Week 1 at home. Seven of nine 13-win teams who opened on the road, including the 2005 Broncos, lost their first game.

Opening on the road in St. Louis is a particularly difficult task. The Rams are a dominant team at home, especially with Marc Bulger at quarterback. As the CBS broadcast pointed out, he is now 21-4 as a starter at home, an NFL best. Bulger's success is only partially attributable to his own play. Just as significant a reason for his stunning home record is how much better the St. Louis defense is at home.

Over the past four seasons, the Rams offense has scored 245 more points at home than on the road. The disparity is even greater on defense, with 268 fewer points allowed in St. Louis. 650 points allowed in 32 games is hardly reason to break out the champagne, but when compared with 868 in 32 games on the road, it is the difference between adequate and horrendous.

These rationalizations do little to ease the nerves of jittery Broncos fans who question Jake Plummer's ability to lead their team to the Super Bowl. Plummer, the obvious goat of the game, was sacked four times, completed only 50 percent of his passes, and most importantly, turned the ball over four times. When an established quarterback on an elite team has four combined interceptions and fumbles, it is usually written off as a bad day. For instance, Tom Brady threw four interceptions against Kansas City last year. Matt Hasselbeck had two interceptions and two fumbles the opening week of last season. Daunte Culpepper and Brett Favre both did it multiple times last year. Heck, Favre has done it once every year since 2001.

Plummer is unlikely to earn the same free pass other quarterbacks get after similar performances. His last outing in the AFC Championship game also saw him turn the ball over four times. More importantly, the Broncos drafted Jay Cutler in the first round this year. The pick was a clear indictment of Plummer, a 31-year-old with several seasons of quality football left. When a team one game away from the Super Bowl uses a rare top-12 pick on a quarterback, the management lacks confidence in its signal-caller.

To make matters worse, Cutler dominated the pre-season, a fact which proves litte about his ability but excites fans who have tired of Plummer. It took the television cameras only one turnover to give their obligatory Jay-Cutler-on-the-sideline shot. Broncos fans look east to Pittsburgh and see Ben Roethlisberger, the 11th pick two seasons ago, put together a 15-win season and a Super Bowl championship in his first two seasons. Why can't Cutler do the same?

Of course, Roethlisberger replaced the ineffective Tommy Maddox. Plummer, on the other hand, has had three very good seasons since signing with the Broncos. In DPAR terms, he has amassed 50.4, 56.4, and 88.0 points above replacement. That ranked him in the top 11 all three seasons. Since 1997, the first year for which DPAR has been calculated, only one rookie has posted a higher DPAR than Plummer's worst season as a Bronco. Roethlisberger had an impressive 75.3 DPAR as a rookie. The second highest rookie total was Charlie Batch with 31.1 in 1998. Table 1 shows all the totals, and the performances are not particularly impressive.

Player Rookie DPAR
Ben Roethlisberger 75.3
Charlie Batch 31.1
Peyton Manning 28.4
Byron Leftwich 16.9
Patrick Ramsey 14.8
Shaun King 0.2
Cade McNown -2.8
Mike Vick -6
Jake Plummer -6.4
Charlie Frye -9.3
Eli Manning -13.3
Joey Harrington -12.9
Kyle Boller -26.7
Akili Smith -26.7
Kyle Orton -38.9
Chris Weinke -39.3
Tim Couch -41.5
Donovan McNabb -41.6
Ryan Leaf -55.6
Alex Smith -66.5
David Carr -68.2

If the Broncos want to punt this season in hopes of getting better quarterback play a year or two from now, then maybe playing Cutler makes sense. If this year is a priority -- and for a team coming off a 13-3 season how can it not be -- Cutler's presence is a complete distraction. The only way playing Cutler this season makes sense is if his mere presence has put too much pressure on Plummer, rendering him incapable of playing at his established level.

More likely, Plummer just had a bad game. He was nearly as bad in Week 1 a year ago when he went 22-for-48 with two interceptions. His performance on Sunday was not helped by his teammates in the passing game. The fumble happened when Mike Bell was asked to block Leonard Little one-on-one. The resulting sack was almost inevitable as Bell, despite his best efforts, was bowled over by Little. Newcomer Javon Walker dropped multiple passes and showed some rust. The offensive line never developed a pass-blocking rhythm, and Plummer rarely had the time he was afforded a season ago.

The legitimate concern for the Broncos is that the Rams are not exactly the Dolphins or Steelers on defense. The Rams ranked 29th in DVOA a year ago and were equally bad against the run and pass. The Broncos running game got the message with the two Bells, Mike and Tatum, combining for 161 yards on 25 carries.

The passing offense was undone not just by Plummer's struggles but by an active St. Louis defensive front. Leonard Little dominated the first half, consistently disrupting the pass protection. The Rams blitzed effectively when they came and didn't expose their questionable secondary by blitzing too much.

That secondary held up, particularly Fakhir Brown, whom the Broncos targeted early and often. The journeyman, who followed defensive coordinator Jim Haslett from New Orleans, is far from a Pro Bowler, but he disrupted Javon Walker just enough to hold down the Broncos passing game. Rookie first round pick Tye Hill chipped in with a quality interception on a pass intended for the venerable Rod Smith. The outstanding defensive play of the game goes to linebacker Will Witherspoon, who made an athletic deflection on a pass late in the fourth quarter with the Broncos trailing by eight. Witherspoon epitomized the defense, active and athletic but potentially too small to hold up against the run.

While the pass defense was excellent, the rest of the Rams struggled. The offense, in particular, wasted one golden opportunity after another. Kicker Jeff Wilkins attempted seven field goals on the day, and the Rams never scored a touchdown. Problems in the red zone are nothing new for the Rams or a Scott Linehan offense. The combination of the two seems to have created an impenetrable barrier to the end zone. The Rams' first-team offense scored zero touchdowns in the pre-season and, despite 320 total yards and excellent field position, zero touchdowns on Sunday. If this red zone ineptitude continues, someone better take out an insurance policy on Wilkins's leg.

The Rams have ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in red zone offense each of the past three seasons. Last year was particularly painful, as they ranked 16th in offense overall but 25th in the red zone. Scott Linehan's red zone calls were so bad in Minnesota that Pro Football Prospectus 2005 had an entire essay devoted to them. On Sunday, after an even run-pass mix got them inside the 10-yard line on their first drive, they threw on three straight plays. One failed run attempt on first-and-goal from the 3-yard line was followed by two pass plays. They threw five straight times upon crossing the 30-yard line on their third possession. The only time they ran on consecutive plays in the red zone, they would have earned a first down had Isaac Bruce not dropped a very catchable ball on a third down slant pattern. On no other pass play near the goal line did the pass come close to an open receiver.

Given that the Rams receivers' best attribute is speed, it makes no sense to throw the ball often in the red zone. Linehan was doing this often a year ago with Gus Frerotte as his quarterback and no shiny toy as pretty as Torry Holt, so expect this damaging pattern to continue.

Still, the Rams have hope because their pass defense was revitalized. In 2003, their last year a Rams team won more than eight games, it was that very pass defense that keyed their run to 12-4. The offense and run defense graded out as league average according to DVOA. Their pass defense was fourth in the league. The defense fell apart upon the departure of Lovie Smith, so it is not crazy to hope that the importation of Haslett will make them respectable. Every statistical indicator in our toolbox points toward a bad defense for the Rams, but statistical toolboxes do not call well-timed corner blitzes on third-and-1 that result in 10-yard sacks.

Despite the result, the Broncos are likely to end up with a better record than the Rams. But, for one game, every team's strengths and flaws are magnified. St. Louis is abuzz with talk of their resurgent defense, and Denver talk radio hosts get a free week of content debating Plummer v. Cutler. Odds are that next week the Rams will give up over 20 points in San Francisco, and Plummer will play an efficient game in a victory over Kansas City. For one week, however, the Rams can look at their schedule and conceive of entering a showdown with Seattle in Week 6 undefeated, while Broncos fans can worry about starting 0-3 requiring a switch to their version of Ben Roethlisberger after the bye.

Each Tuesday in Any Given Sunday, Ned Macey looks at the most surprising result of the previous weekend. The NFL sells itself on the idea that any team can win any given game, but we use these surprises as a tool to explore what trends and subtle aspects of each team are revealed in a single game.

Branch traded
The Deion Branch holdout is over, but Branch isn't returning to the Patriots. Branch, the fifth-year receiver, has been traded to the Seattle Seahawks for a first-round draft choice today.

The 5-foot-9, 193-pound Branch was entering the final year of the five-year contract he signed as a rookie in 2002. Unhappy with that deal, he held out of training camp.

Then, in late August, the Patriots gave Branch permission to negotiate with other clubs, and the Seahawks and Jets made contract offers. But a trade with New England couldn't be consummated by the Patriots' imposed deadline of Sept. 1 and Branch remained with the Patriots.

Branch and his representatives then filed two grievances against the club. The grievances hadn't been heard before today's trade.

-----------------------------------

Holy smokes.  One through five, they probably have the best WR corps in the league now.

Now, who exactly does Tom Brady have to throw to?

D.J. Williams aims for strong suit

By Lee Rasizer, Rocky Mountain News
September 7, 2006

It all was a ruse.

D.J. Williams on the strong side. Ian Gold at weak side.

That's how the Broncos listed their outside linebackers in 2005. It was supposed to represent a shift in philosophy, for Williams particularly, given he had played the open- side spot the previous year during a season in which he was third in voting for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.

The only problem was, for the most part, those weren't the roles of the two players.

"Everybody thought I did, but I never swapped," Williams said.

Said defensive coordinator Larry Coyer: "We didn't really change anything but wording, that's all."

So Williams essentially stayed put on the weak side and Gold was the one aligned over the tight end, despite his smaller size.

Nonetheless, Gold managed to lead the Broncos in tackles with 106 (81 solo), playing an every-down role in the nickel while Williams sat.

So why all the confusion?

"People take things and run with it," Gold said. "It's kind of the way everybody sees that 'will' linebacker spot as the coveted spot to be at because you get a lot of the action, a lot of the blitzing and things of that nature and the strong-side spot is not as coveted because you've got a lot of coverage and not as much in the run action as far as the scheme of the defense.

"But last year, I proved that a player in the strong-side position can still be a part of the defense - and an integral part."

It's a proving ground now for Williams - for real, not just in name.

This season, he will be shifting positions and playing on the strong side, opposite Gold, with revised responsibilities.

"It's a little tough for me because I actually changed the whole position and am playing a linebacking position I've never played," said Williams, who finished sixth on the team last season with 68 tackles (44 solo). "But I'm learning, and once I figure out all the little things about it, I think I'll be real good at it."

The primary difference will be Williams will be charged with covering tight ends more often. But part of the reason Coyer made the swap is the third-year pro has made such huge strides in pass coverage.

"I think he's gifted as a cover guy," Coyer said. "He's a big fast guy with great instincts, and he's got great man-to-man skills."

Whether those abilities translate to more playing time in nickel pass packages remains to be seen. Williams played only about 55 percent of the overall snaps last season compared with 93 percent for Gold and 92 percent for middle linebacker Al Wilson.

The reason for the dip was his exclusion on obvious passing downs, not so much because of his lack of ability but because of the strength of the other two linebackers.

The substitution pattern in 2005 essentially was off the cuff and, in the process, Williams tended to get lost. Coyer is promising a more balanced approach in terms of getting the three players on the field this season by having "a planned sequence of events" in terms of the rotation instead of leaving it to chance.

"It's not easy, but we've got to be prepared," Coyer said. "We've got to have a plan. And I think we're better suited than we were a year ago with that plan."

Early in training camp, Williams still was adjusting to the pass-coverage aspect of his job, saying it was a "daily grind" because he essentially had been off a year from that aspect of the job. The biggest challenge was turning study into reaction and earning the coaches' confidence.

"I just have to get their faith that I can guard tight ends and be out there in pass situations," he said.

If Williams had his druthers, he would remain at weak side because it comes naturally but "it makes our three-man corps better as a whole, so that's what I've got to do."

Gold isn't completely satisfied, either, but he knows his place.

"It it's up to me and I had the ultimate choice of where to play and things of that nature . . . Gold said, pausing for effect, "it would be quarterback. They get paid the most."

--------------------------------------

I hate to doubt first-hand quotes, but is this true?  I mean, wasn't DJ being out of position the big story last year?  I honestly can't say I remember seeing DJ playing a lot on the weakside...of course, he didn't play that much in the first place.  Ian did blitz from the SAM position a lot though...

Thoughts?

Thanks WABronco for the excellent insight. A very good read indeed!!

-TheSportsGuru

My keys to this game are this:

Denver's Defense vs. Ram's Offense

-Denver's blitzing and how it affects St. Louis's offensive playcalling...or vice versa.

Even with Orlando Pace, St. Louis has had problems for years with pass protection. Last year they ranked 27th in sacks allowed. They've also had an average to below average Adjusted Sack rate (sacks/pass attempts) for the last three years.

Point is, if Denver can get pressure on Bulger, with or without blitzing, I think that will minimize the damage in terms of your passing game. Add on top of that the fact that our top trio of corners had solid to decent numbers in the short and intermediate passing zones (as well as deep zones, but that's irrelevant if we get pressure on Bulger).

What's interesting though is that Linehan called for a lot of extra pass-pro during his time in Miami. He called for the most max-protect in the league, and he also ran a lot of 2 TE sets (both of which St. Louis currently has the personel for IMO). Whether that's a tendency of Linehan or only a result of the Miami offense is a relative unknown (although Miami had a top 5 adjusted sack rate).

Our DC, Larry Coyer, likes blitzing (quite a bit actually), and he called the most 6 and 7 man blitzes in the league last year. Coyer also brought blitzes from everywhere, as evidenced by the amount of times we blitzed either cornerbacks (5th most in the league) or safeties (Lynch tied for the team lead with 4 sacks). St. Louis will have to be on their toes in terms of pre-snap recognition and blitz pickup by skill players--either by the TE (rookie TE), RB (Jackson's no Edgerrin James), or maybe even a slot receiver in motion (Pittsburgh did this and it worked).

-Stopping the intermediate and deep passing game

Getting pressure on Bulger seemingly isn't the only key, because I've watched the last few years of Seattle vs. St. Louis matchups...Bulger gets teed off on, but he still goes for 300 yards. Denver has a much better secondary (as well as a better group of coverage-LB's) than Seattle though.

Clogging up the intermediate middle part of the field will be key IMO. Torry Holt and Isacc Bruce have made a living off running 15 yard comeback/hitch routes in the middle of the field. Last year, Torry Holt ranked 15th in Medium pass%, and he was no. 1 overall in Medium pass success rate. Kevin Curtis, the no. 2 for most of the year after Bruce went down, was 30th in the league in Medium pass%, and he had an above average success rate as well. Marc Bulger threw the 6th highest amount of medium passes and he was the most accurate in the league on those routes. Before you say, "New Coach New Coach!" Know this...Linehan is and always has been a vertical-happy coach. St. Louis' receivers also have superb deep metrics...but our defensive backs match up well if you ask me.

In terms of deep coverage, Darrent Williams was by far and away our best guy. He ranked in the top 3 in deep coverage success percentage.

Champ Bailey and Domonique Foxworth were, for the most part, solid across the board in the deep and medium area.

Denver's pass D ranked 5th overall using DVOA, and had solid DVOA numbers against no. 1, 2, and 3 receivers as well as TE's.

Champ may again be left on an island against either Holt or Bruce, but that will allow Coyer to give extra help to either Darrent or Dom...which is a good thing if you ask me.

What's really surprising is how well our safeties covered the deep and medium zones. Sam Brandon, who primarily covered the opponents TE in the big nickel package (and it showed), was arguably the best cover safety in the league against deep and intermediate passes. He was also above average against short passes, but I don't think that's important for this game. John Lynch was not beat once deep last year in primary coverage, leading to his no. 1 overall deep coverage ranking. Lynch also featured a top 5 intermediate ranking. Nick Ferguson was also well above average in both areas.

Admittedly, neither starting safety has the athleticism or speed to be a true elite coverage safety. However, I think there's clear evidence that says that both guys can defend the pass within Coyer's scheme, and that's all that's needed. The numbers don't lie...

Given their elite speed and athleticism for the position, our linebackers are well equipped in coverage. DJ Williams suffered a bit of a falloff in coverage last year, but he's got the tools to be great. Al Wilson is clearly one of the best coverage 'backers in the league. Ian Gold put up a solid stop rate last year as well, but his strongsuit is shooting gaps and rushing the passer.

-Defending against Steven Jackson

Steven Jackson is your prototypical starting back. He's big (6-2, 230), fast (4.45 coming out of Oregon State), and powerful.

However, he's been an inconsistent talent. He can be a force at times (179 yards against Jacksonville), or an utter embarrasment at times (less than 100 yards in two games vs. San Fran last year).

Every scouting report I've been reading (no, not ESPIN) points out that Jackson has below average vision and does not run with patience behind the line. According to Mediator12, Jackson led the league in negative yard running plays last year, and after film analysis of the team's pre-season games, he doesn't think they've improved much either.

This could play into our hands as well because, as we all know, Coyer's scheme calls for the DL to clog up lanes and fill gaps. If we can do that--get Jackson to string plays out or run to the wrong hole--I think our LB's can finish off any run and limit the Rams ground game as a whole.

Despite the presence of an elite talent like Orlando Pace, the Ram's offensive line ranks poorly in run metrics. Not one spot on the line averaged over 4.5 YPC. Both tackles are inconsistent, and the interior is made up of old-and-busted holdovers from the glory days. Not impressed if you ask me.

Denver's Offense vs. Ram's Defense

-Denver passing against Ram's secondary

Key phrase: Physical mismatch.

Without even looking at the numbers, I believe our receivers are too much of a physical mismatch for the St. Louis DB's. Not one of their top 4 CB's are above 6 feet tall. If Javon Walker can get in a man coverage situation...look out. Rod Smith should be able to have his way with their corners, regardless of the size difference. And then, if Marshall is ready to go, you've got a monster in the slot against someone who's 5-10, 180. Utter carnage awaits!

If you want to read about the St. Louis pass defense metrics, I'd advise against it...it's ugly. Their top two corners in terms of stop rate are gone, and their replacements (Travis Fisher, Fakhir Brown, or Jerametrius Butler) aren't much more impressive. I feel Butler is a legit starter, based off previous observation. But, go back to the physical mismatch. Anyways, last year, St. Louis had the 28th overall DVOA ranking against the pass last year, and they were the worst in the league against no. 1 receivers.

And, you may be asking, "well, if you're going to talk about physical mismatches with their DB's, what about Darrent?" My answer is this: when was the last time you saw either Torry Holt or Isacc Bruce get physical with a DB. Those guys are finesse as it gets. Not saying they're incapable, it's just not their game IMO.

Our receiving TE's (scratch that--receiving TE) are somewhat of an unknown/non-factor. If Scheffler's ready to be a weapon, he could be huge in this game. Brandon Chillar did not have very good pass defense metrics last year, although the addition in Corey Chavous may help significantly.

Oh, and don't worry, Jake's good enough to tear this D to shreds.  

-Bootleg trickery

Both of the Ram's DE's are aggressive upfield rushers.  Little may be better equipped to defend the bootleg because of his veteran experience, but just ask Eric Hicks if veteran experience matters all that much against a good bootleg.

-Denver run against Ram's defense

.......'nuff said.

Lol, just kiddin'.

As you all know, Denver had the best run blocking line in all of football last year. Many of us also think that the question who the starting RB will be is irrelevant...Denver runs the ball.

According to the numbers, Anthony Hargrove was the teams best run defender last year. Not surprising, as Hargrove is an athletic, big-bodied player who could end up being the "next one" at DE. He's very projectable. However, who are you going to take in a one-on-one back alley brawl? Matt Lepsis, or this Hargrove fellow?  Lepsis had some of the best run blocking metrics among OT's last season.

St. Louis' offseason additions were made with the run defense in mind. Will Witherspoon, La'Roi Glover, and Corey Chavous are widely viewed as improvements. However, thanks to more analysis by Mediator, that may not be the case. La'Roi Glover is an obvious improvement, but the other two have been underwhelming thus far. Will Witherspoon has been a bit raw in his move to MLB and has been prone to over-pursuit. According to Med, Witherspoon looked horrible during his time in the pre-season. Corey Chavous is simply not an improvement over Adam Archuleta...especially in run defense. According to Football Prospectus, Chavous' physical skills are clearly eroding and he no longer has the range he once had. He's never been a stalwart in the box, defending the run. The two incumbents LB's, Pisa Tinoisamoa and Brandon Chillar, are adequate against the run. Tinoisamoa is great in pursuit however, and will have to be sealed off on the backside of runs.

Their other starting tackle, Jimmy Kennedy, has been inconsistent or just bad throughout his career. He's a huge body, but he was sent to the bench frequently last year for poor play. If he continues to play poorly, he may find himself in Denver next year (cheap reject-linemen joke) because this year is seen as a make-or-break year for him.

If you ask me, I'd like to see Tatum get the start for this game. St. Louis is a mistake-prone team on defense. You can't make mistakes against 4.3 speed. Regardless of who gets the start, I think we'll move the ball on the ground without problem.

Special Teams

Both teams have underwhelming return games.

We may have the edge in the punting game, even without Sauerbrun. Their punter had the lowest average punt yardage of the pre-season.

Elam and Wilkins are a wash, but Wilkins has kicked in that dome for a while now.

St. Louis' coverage units have long been below average. They ranked 23rd in punt coverage and 29th in kick coverage last year according to Prospectus.

(please not Charlie Adams, please not Charlie Adams...)

Looking at just the matchups, I like our chances. If Denver can somehow limit that passing game, there's really no other obstacle IMHO (I'm not yet afraid of Steven Jackson and I dropped St. Louis D in my FFL in about 2 seconds after it was autopicked). Easier said than done, and many of us Denver fans have grown accustomed to trashing Coyer for his shoddy playcalling.

I must say however, I actually feel comfortable with Coyer's scheme going into this game. We'll see...

Overall keys:

1. Exploit their poor pass protection.
2. Rely on your DB's to limit their specialized passing game.
3. Rely on your front four to do their job and let the LB's cancel out indecisive runs.
4. Control the ball and keep their offense on the sidelines as much as possible.
5. Take advantage of their poor ST's and win the field position battle.

--------------------------------------------------

All righty. I wouldn't say I'm overconfident going into this game, but I do feel fairly comfortable considering the matchups.

I tried to keep it as straight forward as possible, but if you need assistance understanding certain terms...go to footballoutsiders.com.

Whadda ya think? Is this overly "CAPTAIN OBVIOUS"? By no means am I claiming to be some scouting expert...I just thought it'd be fun to give it a shot for once and make some theories. If you think I missed something, I probably did...just give me a holla and I'll try to fill it in as best I can.

BTW, I used material from both KC Joyner and Football Prospectus in making this report. I also borrowed a few quotes from all-aroud-good-guy Mediator12 from the Orange Mane.

And, I'm sure that there are some here that could expand on my thoughts or want to add their own.  Feel free!

Thanks to Guru for the invite...