SB Nation User Blog: WTM

Some perspective on T. Sanchez and draft rankings

WTM — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 22:01:15 -0000

This may be coming a bit late after the draft, but since I still see references to the Pirates "going cheap" on Sanchez, I thought some perspective might be in order.

Do you still think the Pirates "went cheap" with Sanchez simply because BA ranked him the #32 draft prospect? (I'll leave aside the fact that lots of people disagree with BA's rankings.) Did you happen to notice that BA quoted several MLB people at various times before the draft to the effect that there was little difference between drafting near the top (excluding the top 2 of course) and drafting at #50? It may seem like there's a lot of difference between #4 and #32, but even in a normal year, which this wasn't, scouting is a hugely inexact science. And the scouts this year didn't see much of a difference.

More importantly, the Pirates weren't alone in their approach to this draft. For example:

--The very next pick, #5 by the Orioles, went on Matt Hobgood, whom BA rated #40, eight spots behind Sanchez.

--The #6 pick (Giants) went on Zack Wheeler, whom BA ranked #12.

--The #7 pick (Braves) went on Mike Minor, whom BA ranked #35.

--The Nationals used the 10th pick on Drew Storen, ranked #36.

--Houston used the 21st pick on Jiovanni Mier, ranked #44.

--The high-spending Angels used the 24th pick on Randal Grichuk, whom BA ranked 58th.

The Pirates' 6th round pick, Zack von Rosenburg, was rated #41, higher than Mier or Grichuk and just one spot behind the 5th pick in the draft. Their comp pick, Victor Black, was ranked #50, higher than Grichuk.

Kyle Gibson, ranked #4, lasted until the 22nd pick.

Maybe this wasn't as straightforward a matter as simply overdrafting a guy by 28 or so spots.

DH Follies

WTM — Fri, 22 May 2009 04:42:25 -0000

The Pirates evidently are exulting because they have some players who are experienced in the "art form" (Eric Hinske's phrase) of serving as a DH. Because they're blessed with some guys who used to play in the AL, things are going to be totally different in interleague play this year. Now they have the unparalleled advantage of choosing from among Hinske, Craig Monroe and Ramon Vazquez. As the Post-Gazette explains, this is a huge advantage for the team:

Vazquez went 0 for 2 in a DH role in his AL days, but the other two have a plate pedigree for it: Monroe is batting .231 in 84 games with 13 home runs and 46 RBIs, Hinske .254 in 88 games with five homers and 25 RBIs.

Uh . . . come again? .231? .254? A composite 18 HRs and 71 RBIs in 172 games?These are supposed to be good numbers??? And why exactly do Vazquez' whopping two at-bats as a DH make him a candidate for the role? Isn't that like saying Brian Bixler is better qualified than Hinske to pinch-hit because NL teams pinch-hit more and Bixler has had all of his major league experience in the NL?

Meanwhile, isn't there somebody missing . . . ? Oh, yeah, it's that Delwyn Young guy. He's only hitting .359 AVG / .419 OBP /. 436 SLG. And he's defensively challenged, so it's a bit of a mixed bag to get his bat in the lineup when he also has to use a glove. He's perfect to DH . . . but no, we can't pass up the opportunity to use some guys who stunk in the role in the AL, or one guy who happened to be in the ballpark when other guys were DH'ing.

Am I missing something, or is this discussion of the Bucs' DH prospects a pretty silly, irrational piece of anti-logic?

Pirates' Bench

WTM — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 20:17:26 -0000

I was struck by a comment Dejan made, I think in his chat, that the Pirates have a good bench this year and had a good one last year, too. Personally, I think the Pirates had a very bad bench last year. Mientkiewicz was a good bench player, but there wasn't much beyond him. Michaels had a few dramatic moments around mid-season, but he completely stopped hitting the last two months and his overall numbers were terrible. Rivas was a waste of a roster spot. Raul Chavez was a dime-a-dozen good-field, no-hit AAAA catcher. Gomez was passable as a pinch hitter but useless otherwise. He didn't hit enough to back up the infield corners and couldn't play the middle infield because he had no range at all.

This year, the pitching staff and Adam LaRoche are getting all the attention for the good start, but I think the bench is getting overlooked, and I think it should contribute more over time. It's easy to see the improvement from last year just by comparing:

Chavez/Jaramillo -- I'll leave aside Paulino, who presented Huntington with a special set of problems, and I'm counting Jaramillo even though he'll be the starter for a while because Doumit hopefully will return for the 2nd half. Jaramillo looks nearly as good as Chavez defensively and should be a much better hitter. I don't have any illusions that he's going to keep hitting the way he has so far, but he works the count and doesn't chase bad pitches. I don't see why he shouldn't hit .260 at least, with enough walks and doubles to help the offense. He's much younger and presents some upside, so having him sub for Doumit for a long period is not the disaster that it would have been with Chavez. And Diaz looks like he can hit a bit better than Jaramillo; the Pirates had nothing comparable to him last year. This is a big upgrade.

Vazquez/Gomez -- This is a moderate upgrade. There probably won't be much difference at the plate in the long run, but Vazquez is much younger and can play SS. I don't think his range is very good, but he doesn't look like anywhere near the statue that Gomez was. He doesn't have to be an everyday SS or 2B because if Jack or Freddy gets hurt, they can call up Bixler or Cruz, which they've just done. This gives the Pirates the option to go with Delwyn Young instead of a no-hit glove guy, so . . . .

Young/Rivas -- This is the really major upgrade. Rivas contributed nothing, a topic I won't belabor. Young can hit. He can't play short and maybe can't play second or third, but he doesn't have to. That's what Vazquez is for. If they ever manage to go into a game with 25 healthy players, Russell will have a much more flexible bench in the late innings when they're tied or trailing, which is where a bench becomes the most important. (Whether he'll use it or not is another issue. IMO Russell is a horrible in-game manager, but that's another subject.)

Hinske/Mientkiewicz -- Probably a wash. Mientkiewicz might be a better bench player in the abstract, because he rarely fans and has a very good eye, which makes him a very good late-inning PH. Hinske fans a lot but has far more power, and this team probably needs the power more right now. Mientkiewicz is a Gold Glove quality firstbaseman, but the Pirates need outfield backups more and Hinske is a better outfielder. He also should be better at third but most likely won't play there except in emergencies.

Monroe/Michaels -- Another wash. They're pretty much the same guy. Both started sliding rapidly downhill once they got past 27-28, and both did/should produce a low BA and low OBP with lots of Ks, modest power, solid defense and possibly the occasional dramatic moment.

Whole Bunch of Cuts Today

WTM — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 12:55:10 -0000

Per the PG:

Salazar, Bootcheck, Davis, Bautista, Garrett Jones, Erik Kratz (yeah, I know, who??), Virgil Vasquez, Phillips.

According to Kovacevic, that leaves 27, which includes Phil Dumatrait, who's going on the DL. With Vasquez cut, Karstens will start. So that leaves one cut left, and Jesse Chavez (who's been bombed all spring), Evan Meek (who has bronchitis), and Rule 5er Donnie Veal are still around. If you assume Meek is also going on the DL, the bullpen would look like this:

Matt Capps

John Grabow

Tyler Yates

Craig Hansen

Jesse Chavez

Sean Burnett

Donnie Veal

That could be the worst bullpen in modern baseball history. There's gotta be a trade or waiver claim coming.

Latin America & the Nats

WTM — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 19:39:09 -0000

BA has an extended article on the Esmailyn Gonzalez affair. It's not limited to subscribers.

It's worth a read because it makes clear just what a minefield the Dominican is, even now after all the efforts to crack down following Agegate and 9/11. It's made me completely rethink my reservations about the Pirates' reluctance to shell out seven-figures bonuses. When you add in the fact that it's virtually impossible to project what kind of player a 16-year-old will be, to say nothing of a 16-year-old who's grown up in poverty with poor nutrition and little coaching, I can understand Rene Gayo's view that it's better to spread the bonus money around.

Prospect Poll

WTM — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 17:34:31 -0000

There's a prospect poll being conducted at www.onlybucs.org. The method is the same as was conducted here last year, voting for each "slot" to get a top ten one at a time, or possibly twenty if there's enough interest. The farm system's improved enough now to make it more interesting than it has been for a few years. I thought I'd encourage anybody here who's interested to vote, as I'm very interested in how the fans rate the team's prospects as a kind of counterpoint to the BA rankings. (The Pirates' top ten is due to go online on 1/21.) You'd have to register if you're not registered there already. The poll for #1 is here:

http://forums.onlybucs.org/index.php/topic,2973.0.html

Obviously, it'd be necessary to keep checking for the #2, #3 slots and so on.

BA on Rule 5

WTM — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 17:09:24 -0000

Baseball America raises some interesting possibilities in their Rule 5 preview. It's in the subscribers' area and I don't want to get Charlie in trouble by copying from there, but some guys who struck me as maybe worth a shot:

LH relievers: Pedro Figueroa (A's) and Jose Lugo (Twins), both hard throwers. Lugo has a high K rate and is also a strong groundball pitcher.

RH starter: Matt Torra (D'backs), former 1st rounder who had shoulder surgery. Sinker/slider guy who looks like a 4th/5th starter/innings eater. (Yeah, OK, we're loaded with those.)

RH relievers: Morlan, of course. Also Dodgers' Javy Guerra (96 mph) and Cards' Luis Perdomo (nasty slider, RH batters hit .153 against him in 2008).

One interesting hitter: 3B Jesus Guzman. He's 24 and has bounced around, but had a breakout 2008 season, hitting 364/419/500 in the Texas League and following it up with a monster winter so far in Venezuela. He just signed with the Giants as a minor league FA.

Roster additions

WTM — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:07:18 -0000

Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Jeff Sues, Steve Lerud and Ronald Uviedo.

The last two are obviously surprises. Lerud profiles as a backup catcher, but the lack of depth at the position makes it useful for them to have at least one young catcher on the roster in the minors. (Paulino is out of options and I think he's probably headed out.)

They probably consider Uviedo to have better stuff than Eric Krebs, and he's been healthier.

They clearly have reservations about Jamie Romak, given his problems making contact. I doubt he'll get selected. The last thing he needs is to waste a year on the end of the bench. It'd probably be a serious setback to his prospects.

Jose Tabata: Older than we thought?

WTM — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 11:06:39 -0000

Here's a potentially disturbing item: Dejan reports in the Notebook today that the Pirates are thinking of putting Tabata on the 40-man roster this off-season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Tabata was signed four years ago, supposedly at age 16. Players who sign at 18 or under aren't eligible until after five years. Either Dejan has it wrong or was misinformed, or Tabata is older than the public has been led to believe. To be eligible for the draft, he'd have to have been at least 19 when he signed, which would make him 23 now. All the hype about him has been based on the fact that he was always very young for the levels he played at. If he's 20, he's a blue chip prospect. If he's 23, he's nothing special.

Nutting Speaks

WTM — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 17:19:55 -0000

I'm surprised there hasn't been much comment yet on Dejan's interview with Bob Nutting.

I know the gut reaction for any Pirate fan is going to be hostility, for reasons that hardly require explanation. And at this stage it's all just talk, although it's far more candid talk than anything that's come out of the PNC offices since . . . well . . . ever.

But there's some worthwhile stuff in there.

For one, Nutting actually seems to understand the success cycle. He's absolutely right in saying there's no point blowing money on FAs now. The fact that most fans regard FA signings as a litmus test for ownership isn't a reason to get stampeded into repeating the Burnitz/Randa fiasco. Adding $20M or whatever to the payroll now won't help, except maybe in making the difference between 74 wins and 77. BFD. If--and that's a big "if"--Nutting means what he says, he's right in saying the time to increase payroll is when they're close to winning. They're not now. And he's (supposedly) willing to see NH trade vets for prospects, which DL probably didn't have leave to do, not that he would have.

I'm more skeptical about his notion that having better management will make the team better, and I think he's exaggerating the degree by which the team underperformed. He's justified, though, in believing that it did underperform.

He also seems to understand the fans' point of view better, maybe because he educated himself about something the fans already understood, that being the colossal incompetence that reigned in the PNC offices.

Of course, this all means nothing if Nutting doesn't walk the walk.