SB Nation User Blog: WTM

BA on Rule 5

WTM — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 17:09:24 -0000

Baseball America raises some interesting possibilities in their Rule 5 preview. It's in the subscribers' area and I don't want to get Charlie in trouble by copying from there, but some guys who struck me as maybe worth a shot:

LH relievers: Pedro Figueroa (A's) and Jose Lugo (Twins), both hard throwers. Lugo has a high K rate and is also a strong groundball pitcher.

RH starter: Matt Torra (D'backs), former 1st rounder who had shoulder surgery. Sinker/slider guy who looks like a 4th/5th starter/innings eater. (Yeah, OK, we're loaded with those.)

RH relievers: Morlan, of course. Also Dodgers' Javy Guerra (96 mph) and Cards' Luis Perdomo (nasty slider, RH batters hit .153 against him in 2008).

One interesting hitter: 3B Jesus Guzman. He's 24 and has bounced around, but had a breakout 2008 season, hitting 364/419/500 in the Texas League and following it up with a monster winter so far in Venezuela. He just signed with the Giants as a minor league FA.

Roster additions

WTM — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:07:18 -0000

Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Jeff Sues, Steve Lerud and Ronald Uviedo.

The last two are obviously surprises. Lerud profiles as a backup catcher, but the lack of depth at the position makes it useful for them to have at least one young catcher on the roster in the minors. (Paulino is out of options and I think he's probably headed out.)

They probably consider Uviedo to have better stuff than Eric Krebs, and he's been healthier.

They clearly have reservations about Jamie Romak, given his problems making contact. I doubt he'll get selected. The last thing he needs is to waste a year on the end of the bench. It'd probably be a serious setback to his prospects.

Jose Tabata: Older than we thought?

WTM — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 11:06:39 -0000

Here's a potentially disturbing item: Dejan reports in the Notebook today that the Pirates are thinking of putting Tabata on the 40-man roster this off-season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Tabata was signed four years ago, supposedly at age 16. Players who sign at 18 or under aren't eligible until after five years. Either Dejan has it wrong or was misinformed, or Tabata is older than the public has been led to believe. To be eligible for the draft, he'd have to have been at least 19 when he signed, which would make him 23 now. All the hype about him has been based on the fact that he was always very young for the levels he played at. If he's 20, he's a blue chip prospect. If he's 23, he's nothing special.

Nutting Speaks

WTM — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 17:19:55 -0000

I'm surprised there hasn't been much comment yet on Dejan's interview with Bob Nutting.

I know the gut reaction for any Pirate fan is going to be hostility, for reasons that hardly require explanation. And at this stage it's all just talk, although it's far more candid talk than anything that's come out of the PNC offices since . . . well . . . ever.

But there's some worthwhile stuff in there.

For one, Nutting actually seems to understand the success cycle. He's absolutely right in saying there's no point blowing money on FAs now. The fact that most fans regard FA signings as a litmus test for ownership isn't a reason to get stampeded into repeating the Burnitz/Randa fiasco. Adding $20M or whatever to the payroll now won't help, except maybe in making the difference between 74 wins and 77. BFD. If--and that's a big "if"--Nutting means what he says, he's right in saying the time to increase payroll is when they're close to winning. They're not now. And he's (supposedly) willing to see NH trade vets for prospects, which DL probably didn't have leave to do, not that he would have.

I'm more skeptical about his notion that having better management will make the team better, and I think he's exaggerating the degree by which the team underperformed. He's justified, though, in believing that it did underperform.

He also seems to understand the fans' point of view better, maybe because he educated himself about something the fans already understood, that being the colossal incompetence that reigned in the PNC offices.

Of course, this all means nothing if Nutting doesn't walk the walk.

Latin America

WTM — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 22:51:42 -0000

I thought I'd comment a bit on Dejan Kovacevic's recent note on the Pirates' Latin American spending.

The most interesting part was the comment that Rene Gayo prefers spreading their bonus spending among a lot of players, hence the absence of the Pirates from the long list of teams signing top LAm. prospects.

It's possible this approach might work. The Pirates' DSL and VSL affiliates dominated their leagues and, as the PG note intimates, a lot of the players were teenagers instead of being in the 20-22 range, as was usually the case in the past. The development curve with Latin players is probably so unpredictable that a quantity-over-quality approach might make sense.

But it's also possible that none of these kids will go anywhere. It's just so hard to tell because the experiences of these kids are so incredibly variable--in many cases probably including poor nutrition, no coaching, difficult lives and poor playing conditions--that I doubt you can tell much from their performance at this stage. The Pirates may just be signing more advanced players with lower ceilings. That'd be consistent with their approach to the draft, which has been geared more to producing good W/L records in the minors (not that it's been successful even at that lately) than to producing prospects.

I also have trouble with the notion that The Biggest Losers in Sports know more than most of the rest of baseball. Are all the best-run teams in MLB stupid? What are the odds that the fifteen-year losers, who've had the worst international scouting in baseball for the past six years, have hit on the Secret Path?

MOD: Pirates II

WTM — Fri, 03 Jun 2005 03:29:51 -0000

Still happy for any input anybody has. With Drew and Weaver signed, the Pirates now have picks # 11, 59, 91, 121 and 151.

I guess I'm pretty suggestible, because I read BA's feature on McCutchen and now I'm more interested in him than before.

MOD: Pirates

WTM — Sat, 28 May 2005 02:04:51 -0000

The Bucs have picks # 11, 61, 93, 123 and 153.

IMO, they desperately need hitting, so I think that should be the focus. In particular, they need guys with potentially high ceilings and with power.

They would never sign a Boras client, and that option wouldn't be open to their SD, so unless John assigns us a new owner too, I don't think Boras clients should be considered.