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Price VS Halak
A goaltending controversy in Montreal?
Surely you jest! Montreal is a city that booed Ken Dryden, a goaltender who produced a career record of 258-57-74 and won SIX Stanley Cups in only eight seasons. Montreal booed Patrick Roy out of town in 1995, just 30 months removed from the 1993 Stanley Cup and the recipient of two Conn Smythe trophies and three Vezina's during his 9 seasons. Is it a surprise that the fan base has decided to forget everything that Carey Price has accomplished by the age of 22?
Canadiens fans are loyal and passionate, but remarkably consistent in their idiocy. From booing Ken Dryden during the 1979 Stanley Cup Finals because they thought Bunny Laraque was a better goaltender, to the infamous poll before Game 3 of the 1993 Adams Division Semi-Final, where a large majority decided that Andre "Red Light" Racicot should start the pivotal game.
The idiocy returned in 2008 after Price registered one of the best years by a 19-20 year old goaltender in the history of hockey. During an 18-month span, Carey Price won a World Junior title and MVP, the CHL goaltender of the year, the Calder Cup, the Calder Cup MVP, won a starting job in the NHL, went 18-8-2 with a 2.46 GAA and a .923 SV% to push the Canadiens to 1st in the Eastern Conference and became only the 4th twenty year old goalie in post expansion history to win a playoff series (registering two shutouts, including one in Game 7). After ALL OF THAT, Canadiens fans were screaming for Jaroslav Halak to start Game 4 of the Philadelphia series.
Does that sound familiar? What are the expectations for a Canadiens goaltender? If Roy and Dryden failed to meet the expectations, how will Price ever meet them? And if Price does not, and Halak is thrust into the spotlight, how long before the fanbase begins to question management for choosing him? Don't kid yourself, if 6 Stanley Cups in 8 seasons is not enough to gain immunity from the bloodthirsty tribe, nothing is.
So how do they really stack up?
Is this another case of simplifying blame and the "what have you done for me lately" attitude that has existed in Montreal forever? Or has Halak been significantly better than Carey Price during their brief careers?
Anybody who follows my site fantasysensehockey.net knows that I feel that the only proper comparable for goaltenders exists in shared situations, so I did not compare junior statistics. The variables are not the same and can easily twist perception (see Chris Osgood's career). I stuck to their NHL experiences for the statistical comparisons.
Which camp is right? Team Halak or Team Price? Let's look at the tale of the tape.
Columbus Blue Jackets 2009 Fantasy Preview
Columbus has one of the best collections of young talent in the league, after achieving their first playoff spot last season, the goals have shifted and the Jackets must now prove that they belong.
With all the young talent in Columbus expected to progress and a much deeper unit down the middle, the Jackets are poised to improve upon their 7th place finish. The only fear is a regression from Calder Cup winner Steve Mason and the lack of an elite puck mover to jump-start a middling offense. Should those fears be quelled, the Jackets will leap to the next level.
For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.
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Pittsburgh Penguins 2009 Fantasy Preview
Editor's Note: Wamsley from Fantasysensehockey.net was kinda enough to give a massive fantasy preview for the Pens. With our own fantasy drafts coming up soon, the timing couldn't have been better. Many thanks.
Can the Penguins repeat? Or will the salary cap cost them a prolonged Cup run? Even though the Pens depth will be challenged by the departure of 4 starters from the Championship team, they are well positioned to replace them with cheap youngsters.
From a fantasy standpoint they will continue to get a ton of attention as owners continually search for a forward to draft off the greatness of Crosby and Malkin. Surely there is somebody in the system that can replicate the greatness of Rob Brown's balding mullet and pot 49 goals. Or maybe a 28-year old nobody to fill Warren Young's role? The search continues....
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Chicago Blackhawks 2009 Fantasy Preview
Editor's Note - Hey all, Wamsley works with Robert over at Habs Eyes On The Prize and also runs Fantasy Sense Hockey. He's been kind enough to put together a look at the Blackhawks from a fantasy perspective. If you look around the other SBN sites or on Fantasy Sense Hockey, you can find out more information on the other teams. This is part of our kickoff of fantasy hockey here on Second City Hockey - expect a post about our leagues (plural?) later today
Was Dale Tallon fired because he bungled the qualifying offers of Cam Barker and Kris Versteeg? Or is it because he may have handcuffed the ascent of one of the most talented young rosters in the league?
The Hawks were poised to become a powerhouse when Tallon broke out the checkbook and blew his brains out. Why sign Brian Campbell to 7M+ per season when you have a young dynamic defensive trio in Barker, Seabrook and Keith? Why overpay for Huet, a goaltender who has only started 50+ games once, when you already have Khabibulin? Why sign Hossa to $5M+ 12-year deal when you still haven't locked up Kane, Toews and Keith to long-term deals? At $42M locked up on 12 players next season and a decreasing cap, where is the money for two of the most dynamic players in the game?
Tallon was fired because the Hawks are trying to undo the damage he has done and save the future of the next NHL power. Is Tallon going to remain in the NHL? Or will his resume of reckless spending on the Hawks qualify him for a job with Bear Stearns? The Hawks are stacked with fantasy talent and are poised to challenge the powerhouse Wings in 2010, but I am more interested in how Bowman removes the cement shoes that threaten to sink the Hawks brilliant return to the top of the NHL.
For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.
2009 Boston Bruins Fantasy Preview
Editor's Note: Wamsley is a contributor for Habs Eyes on the Prize (but don't hold that against him) and editor of Fantasy Sense Hockey. He has been writing these awesome fantasy hockey previews for several of the SB Nation Hockey blogs this offseason. The views expressed in this post do not necessarily reflected the views of Stanley Cup of Chowder, SB Nation, or its sponsors.
Last season at this time the Boston Bruins were a team that the Hockey News had projected at 10. Their rivals the Canadienswere the class of the East and had a youthful core that would make them a contender for years. Twelve months later and a 4-0 shellacking in the playoffs, the tables are reversed. The Bruins are now the powerhouse entering 2010. Can they repeat the success of their breakout year? Will they avoid the pitfalls that follow success? Will the injuries to Kessel and Krejci stagnate a potent offense?
With the re-signing of Thomas, the Bruins have recognized their window and Chiarelli has pushed in all his chips. As long as they can retain Kessel, and he and Krejci rebound from injury, the Bruins should contend in the East again in 2010.
For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.
How does a goaltender that couldn't make the NHL until the age of 31 transform into a Vezina trophy winner so rapidly?
Play for a coach who has instilled defensive discipline at every NHL stop during his career.
In 2003 the Canadiens were in the process of finishing 23rd in the NHL and giving up 234 goals against. Enter Claude Julien. With a full training camp in place to implement his system, the Canadiens improved by 42 goals and finished as the 10th best defensive team in the NHL temporarily nullifying the rigamortis that had enveloped Jose Theodore's career.
New Jersey finished the 2006 season ranked 8th with 229 goals against. Enter Claude Julien. Once again Julien lead a 28-goal improvement and a 6th place defensive finish. After being fired late in the 2007 season Julien resurfaced with the Bruins. With 293 goals against and a 29th place finish in goals against, there wasn't much room to move but up. Julien lead the Bruins to a 72-goal improvement in 2008 and furthered that with another 27-goal improvement last season. From the 29th best defensive team to the 1st in 164 games!
Doesn't this seem like a reasonable explanation of how Thomas went from a 3.13 GAA and a .905 SV% at 33 to 2.10 GAA and a .933 SV% during the tail end of his peak at 35? It's not as compelling as Elliott Friedman tossing softballs about perseverance to Thomas on the CBC, but it makes more sense than crediting the improvement to Thomas' late learning curve.
As long as Julien coaches the Bruins, they are going to produce fantasy quality goaltenders. Should Thomas falter, Tuukka Raskis likely to step in and replicate Thomas' success.
Marc Savardhas been among the premier center's in fantasy over the last 5 seasons. Because of his uncanny on ice vision, Savard, when healthy has been a lock for 60+ assists and a yearly threat to crack 100 points. With the introduction of Julien's system, Savard's PP decline has been offset by his renewed defensive awareness. Savard managed to be a + player only 1 time during the first 10 years of his career, but has turned a -19 into a +23 over the last 2 seasons. He remains the biggest fantasy lock on the Bruins, but at 32 is entering into his descent as a fantasy performer. Playing for a contract, I don't expect any decline in 2010.
Tim Thomasis fun to watch and his reflexes and stubborn refusal to quit on a puck are extraordinary. If he was born in 1954 instead of 1974 he may have had a legendary career. After struggling to stick in the league for 15 years he finally found the perfect surroundings for success. Paired with Claude Julien, Thomas' penchant for over pursuit and kicking out monster rebounds has been nullified by a disciplined defense that rarely allows second chance opportunities. As long as Thomas is the starter in Boston, he will produce large fantasy numbers. How long he holds off Rask is another story.
Zdeno Charaanswered all the questions surrounding his 2008 shoulder injury by scoring 19 goals and winning his first Norris trophy in 2009. Although it took Big Z a while to make a fantasy impact, he has become one of the most consistent producers on the back end. Chara has enjoyed eight straight seasons of 95+ PIMs, four straight seasons of 20+ power play points and six straight seasons of 40+ points. Chara's production tailed off in the playoffs as he was hampered by numerous nagging injuries. He is surprisingly mobile and skates well for his size. He is an efficient puck mover and possesses a booming slap shot. With his consistency, the only concern in drafting Chara is his large frame avoiding wear and tear injuries.
David Krejciexploded on the fantasy scene after a torrid second quarter where he averaged 1.40 PPG (115 pt pace). From Nov. 19 – Jan. 13 Krejci had 39 pts in 25 games as he registered a +23. The most impressive aspect of the 23 year olds performance? Only 9 of those points were produced on the power play. Krejci's production tailed in the second half as the hip he injured in the pre-season got progressively worse to the point where he required off season surgery. Krejci still has months of rehab ahead of him and the highly skilled center may struggle out of the gate. 2009 was no fluke. With his vision, hands and ability to change pace, Krejci has a very bright fantasy future.
Phil Kessel is the prime reason why I thought the Thomas contract would act as an albatross around Chiarelli's neck. There remains a possibility that the dynamic winger could be on his way out of town, a victim of the Bruin's salary cap issues. Kessel owns lightning hands and feet and has the ability to maneuver at top speed, causing nightmares for NHL defenders. If they back in too deep, he unleashes a laser like wrist shot, if they get aggressive, he blows by them. Kessel enjoyed his breakout season in 2008 fueled by an 18 game point streak in which he produced 28 points (14G, 14A). He did suffer a lull in production in Jan - Feb, but a lot of that could be blamed on his bout with mononucleosis. He also rebounded from a shoulder injury, (which resulted in off season surgery) to produce 22 points over his final 19 games (including playoffs). Once he matures, the only thing holding him back from fantasy stardom is his health. If he remains in Boston, a PPG pace is realistic in 2010.
Dennis Wideman has improved immensely over the last 4 seasons. He went from being the guy who was traded for Brad Boyesto finishing in the top 15 in NHL scoring for D-men. Add in a +32 and 25 power play points and the question becomes has Wideman at 26 achieved his peak? Wideman is entering his prime and with his PP minutes and array of offensive skills he should remain productive. The Bruins had a magical 2009 and with the loss of Kessel and Krejci for the first couple of months, it isn't unreasonable to place his ceiling at 50 points in 2010.
Milan Lucic throws every hit with bad intentions and at only 21 years old has begun to terrorize the league like nobody since Todd Bertuzziin the early 2000s. Lucic is still raw and shows flashes of dominance. When he figures out the scoring zones and the most efficient routes to them, as well as improving his skating stride and balance, he will become the premier power forward in the league. After a slow 4th quarter, Lucic raised his level in the playoffs with 9 points in 10 games, as well as registering a team high +12. All of this with zero power play production (13th in PP minutes on the Bruins). Lucic almost doubled his 2008 production in 2009 with essentially the same ice time. When his maturity and offensive responsibility coincide, lookout. His upside is scary and leaves me wondering where his ceiling ultimately lies. Can you say Sea Bass!!
Patrice Bergeron was a rising offensive star until his inner Lindros emerged. After missing the majority of 2008, Bergeron returned to the lineup in 2009 and struggled to regain his offensive flow. After watching him adjust so seamlessly to a checking role in the playoffs, I began to have concerns about his future fantasy production. He has the opportunity to win me over during the first quarter of 2010. Injuries to Kessel and Krejci will provide him the opportunity for increased ice time and offensive responsibility, and with it, a chance to reclaim his once promising fantasy career.
There is no doubt that Michael Ryder is a strong offensive player and has the tendency to be very streaky. In fantasy, catching one of his torrid streaks could put you over the top. Last season he rebounded from a nightmare campaign to match his previous production. Upon return from a scary facial injury where he suffered a broken nose and multiple facial fractures, Ryder posted 30 points (13G, 17A) over his final 33 games as he caught fire in the playoffs. Ryder's history suggests a flawed offensive player who has strong instincts and the innate skill of having the puck follow him in the zone, but he also has a history of selfish play and concentration lapses. His hot streaks are always followed by lulls, so I wouldn't over value his hot stretch drive and expect more than his career trajectory shows.
The 23-year old Blake Wheeleronly one year removed from a 44 game schedule seemed to hit the wall over the second half of 2009. Coming off a productive second quarter in which he produced at a 60 pt pace, Wheeler struggled through the playoffs with 15 points over his last 39 games. Wheeler's lack of production cost him a lineup spot during the Bruin's final three games. Wheeler is a talented playmaker with great athleticism and finesse for his size. He has strong offensive upside that he displays through his 1 on 1 skills, and his offensive vision allows him to create time and space for his teammates. The biggest concerns in his development are his lack of strength, physical involvement and unwillingness to pay the price when the physical toll rises in the playoffs. An intriguing fantasy prospect with warts. His weaknesses are red flags for a 6'5" budding power forward.
Looking at the Bruins top prospects, it is easy to see why Chiarelli has gambled on the cap. They possess some intriguing offensive prospects that could step in and provide a cheap alternative over the next couple of seasons. His gamble will all depend on how quick the kids can adapt to the NHL. If any of them can make the leap on entry-level deals, Chiarelli will ultimately look good. 
Leaf fans brace yourself. While Andrew Raycroft bounces around the league Tuukka Rask is ready for prime time. With Julien at the helm, Rask is going to be well insulated at the NHL level. With his flaws negated by the Bruins system, he should begin his ascension to number one in Boston. His skill set is impressive, but when his size, athleticism and economy of motion are combined with his passion and drive you have a future All-Star. With Thomas making $5M, Rask's owners will have to remain patient for glimpses. Should Thomas get injured, the Bruins could have a goalie controversy on their hands.
Colborne is the best offensive prospect in the Bruins system. At 6'5", Colborne is a tall, intelligent playmaker. His vision and hands are not consistent with his huge frame and his long effortless movements create the perception that he is not working hard. With low expectations entering his freshman season, Colborne surprised when injuries forced him back to his natural center position. As his body matures and gains the strength to compete more consistently, Colborne should fulfill top line potential.
Soderberg has been a productive player for Malmo in the second tier Swedish Elite League finishing 5th in league scoring in 2009. Soderberg is another large pivot in the Bruins pipeline; he is deceptively quick and possesses strong playmaking skills. When he decides to come over to North America his toughness and mettle will be tested, if he passes the test he can become a solid offensive player with limited upside.
Coming off a prolific junior career in which he posted 93 points and lead the WHL in scoring during his draft eligible season, Hamill's stock has dropped. Consecutive seasons marked by a decline in his production have raised questions about the former 8th overall pick. Initially viewed as undersized, Hamill has grown into his frame and with his effortless stride and powerful acceleration has significant offensive upside. Although his lack of production in the AHL can be explained as an adjustment to the pro game and lack of ice-time, his final WHL campaign raises red flags. How much was Peter Mueller responsible for his 2007 breakout campaign? With Mueller's departure, Hamill's point total plummeted 18 points and he failed to rebound in 2009. He still remains a solid pro prospect, but with the Bruins knee deep in offensive centers, 2010 is a huge year in determining his future offensive impact.
With a name like Sobotka, I expect a future place as the head of the NHLPA where he will ultimately be betrayed by "The Greek" Chris Chelios. Sobotka's future ultimately lies in the opportunity he is provided. Looking at his point per game production in the AHL, if he is provided an offensive role, his dogged work ethic, soft hands and puck carrying ability could translate into fantasy success. His biggest problem in meeting his offensive potential is his adaptability to a checking/energy role and the logjam of centers in the Bruins organization. He will make the NHL, his role will determine his fantasy future.
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2009 Minnesota Wild Fantasy Preview
Editor's note: Wamsley is a contributor for the "Habs Eyes on the Prize" blog and is also editor of the Fantasy Sense Hockey site. He offered to provide a fantasy preview for the Hurricanes and we were thrilled to oblige! The fantasy expert has already previewed the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Buffalo Sabres. Good luck to him in completing all 30 teams before October!
By the way, we will be starting a Hockey Wilderness Fantasy Hockey league on Yahoo within the next couple of weeks. Email me if you're interested.
Since the Wild's inception they reflected the character of their coach Jacques Lemaire.
In fantasy it meant two things.
1. You were set in goal if you had the Wild's starting goaltender
2. Wild forwards rarely cracked 70+ points. In their 8-year history the Wild have placed 6 goaltenders in the top 10, but only one forward who scored 80+ points. The Wild's attack has been so anemic that Alexandre Daigle once led the team in scoring.
Was the Wild fortunate to have elite level goaltending? Doubtful. With the departure of Lemaire, the Wild had the opportunity to change philosophies. Would they alter the course of the franchise? Or would they continue to maintain their defensive identity?
For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.
Enter Todd Richards.
Will Todd Richards open up the offense or continue to sacrifice the offensive end to insulate his own zone. Looking at his AHL head-coaching resume, it looks like the status quo in Minnesota, but it is hard to make judgments based on such a limited sample. Richards could be similar to Jacques Martin and Lindy Ruff in that he adjusts to his personnel. It looks like it is safe to say that Backstrom will continue to receive plenty of defensive support. The question is, will Richards loosen the reigns on thoroughbreds Havlat, Koivu and Burns.
Complete analysis after the jump
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2009 Carolina Hurricanes Fantasy Preview
Editor's note: Wamsley is a contributor for the "Habs Eyes on the Prize" blog and is also editor of the Fantasy Sense Hockey site. He offered to provide a fantasy preview for the Hurricanes and we were thrilled to oblige! The fantasy expert has already previewed the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Buffalo Sabres. Good luck to him in completing all 30 teams before October!
(By the way, we have big plans for fantasy hockey here at Canes Country this year as we will have an "A" league for experienced and a "B" league for beginners along with some prizes to boot. So stay tuned for more about that later).
After the 2006 season the Canes looked like they were poised to dominate the NHL. With 22-year old Conn Smythe trophy winner Cam Ward and 21-year old 100 pt scorer Eric Staal, the 2006 season seemed like a glimpse of what was to come.
The Stanley Cup hangover in Carolina extended to two and a half years and many began to question the potential of the Canes future core.
With a third straight season on the brink of disaster, Hurricane's Eric and Cam rolled through the Atlantic and devastated the North and Southeast. The category 5 rolled to a 25-9-2 finish, flattening New Jersey and Boston on their path to the Stanley Cup Conference Finals.
With the re-emergence of Ward and Staal, a veteran core and some recruits from the farm, the Cup window may have re-opened.
For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.
2009 Buffalo Sabres Fantasy Preview
Editor's Note: Wamsley, a contributor to Habs Eyes on the Prize (don't hold it against him...necessarily) as well as the editor of Fantasy Sense Hockey, has provided his fantasy preview of the 2009-2010 Buffalo Sabres.
Although the Sabres have failed to make the playoffs in two seasons, their roster is filled with fantasy stalwarts.
Miller, Vanek, Roy, Pominville and the oft-injured Connolly are top tier players. Unfortunately, NHL results are not predicated on fantasy results.
The Sabres continue to await the ascension of the next generation in Stafford, MacArthur, Sekera, Myers and Gerbe. When those players mature and the Sabres find suitable replacement for Campbell and Spacek, Sabres fans can prepare for the playoffs and the inevitable letdown.
For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.
Throughout his career, Lindy Ruff has shown an ability to adapt to the talent at his disposal. During the late 90s, Ruff and the Sabres forged an identity as a tight checking team that supported their biggest asset in Dominik Hasek. This defensive style resulted in 60 pt forwards, but a goaltender that posted Hall of Fame fantasy numbers. With the team and league in transition coming out of the lockout, Ruff switched gears and adjusted his style to fit his personnel. Fast, speedy players lead to a dynamic offensive attack in Buffalo.
The difficulty in determining where the 2010 Sabres are heading lies in their lack of identity. They have elite level goaltending in Ryan Miller and a dynamic forward attack lead by Vanek, Roy, Connolly and Pominville. With no elite level defensemen to begin the transition game, can they run and gun? Can they insulate Miller with their current defensive personnel? If Sekera or Chris Butler can surprise, or Tyler Myers can make an immediate impact, the Sabres will be dangerous and fun to watch again. If not, Sabres fans can delight in highlights of the 1975 Stanley Cup Finals and the glory of Rick Dudley's headband.
Ken Holland has a philosophy that there are 6-7 great goaltenders in the NHL. Due to the evolution of the butterfly, the rest are interchangeable with their success dependent upon their team system. I believe Ryan Miller is one of the goaltenders that will succeed regardless of his surroundings. Miller's progression arc is also why statistical analysis alone is dubious at best. In 2006 as a rookie, Miller won 30 games, had a GAA of 2.60 and a .914 SV%. Four seasons later and he finished up with 34 wins, a GAA of 2.53 and a .918 SV%. In between his statistics dipped, implying a regression in his play. But all of this was accomplished on a Sabres team that was in decline. His 2006 statistics were accomplished on a team that almost won the Stanley Cup, his 2009 stats on a team that finished 17th overall. Miller is among the 7-8 fantasy elite and should be the starter on the 2010 US Olympic team.
Thomas Vanek was on pace to challenge 50 goals and his career best 84 points before a broken jaw derailed his season. Vanek returned within a month, but the drop in weight assured that he could not sustain the same production. Before registering a 3-point game in the season finale, Vanek struggled to average half a point per game upon return. At 25 he is primed to take another run at 50 goals, a return to a point per game pace and finally earn his inflated salary. If Miller is fantasy option 1, Vanek is 1A on the Sabres.
2009 marked a slight regression in Roy's statistics. The only category in which he improved was his power play production. Over the first three quarters of 2009 Roy was on pace to match his career best, but his production dipped over the last 20 games to .59 PPG. Was his funk related to the return of the artist formerly known as Vanek? Their slumps coincide. If you look at Roy's chart his 2009 production diverges from his 2008 production on March 4th, the day of Vanek's return. My guess is a return to PPG status and a substantial +/- improvement in 2010.
Don't be fooled by the siren song of Tim Connolly and the Marian Havorik All-Stars (Martin Havlat+Marian Gaborik). The belief that if he stays healthy he could post big numbers. No chance! Two seasons ago, I made the decision that I could live with no regret when Connolly does have his healthy season (and he will have an 80 game season), because I will not have to deal with the headaches of the other 6-7 where he doesn't. I love his game, but unless he borrows Mark Kelso's gazoo helmet for the remainder of his career, I think I will pass.
Big contract, mediocre season. For Sabres fans this scenario is all too familiar as this played out two seasons ago when Tomas Vanek regressed after signing his monster offer sheet. Pominville's struggles were highlighted when from Jan 3rd to March 4th the former 34-goal scorer struggled to light the lamp registering one goal in 26 games. But a goal on March 6th ignited Rick Jeannerete and the city of Pominville as he scored 20 points over the final 18 games (5G, 15A). With his confidence restored, look for Jason Pominville to rebound strong with 70+ points in 2010.
Is this the year? Was last season's NHL ad campaign inspired by Drew Stafford. Is this the year Stafford realizes his talent? Stafford has scored at every level and the NHL should be no different. Power forwards are notoriously slow to develop and Stafford's inconsistency is frustrating for his fantasy owners and Sabre fans alike. After a brutal start, Stafford enjoyed a scorching Dec-Jan where he registered 23 points in 24 games (10G, 13A), but his play regressed when Vanek went down to injury in February (11 points in his final 28 games). If Stafford finds himself back with Roy and Vanek and top PP minutes, he will not remain under the radar for long. Stafford has strong breakout potential and will be a strong value pick late in your draft.
It is a shame that a team loaded with talented forwards lacks the elite QB to feed them the puck. Craig Rivet is not the answer, but Andrej Sekera may be. With Jaroslav Spacek in Montreal, the Sabres need somebody to fill 25 minutes a night. Sekera's offensive skill set seems like the logical choice, but the question is whether he will be able to handle the increased workload and responsibility. Sekera started 2009 strong with 8 points in 12 games, but struggled with inconsistency common in young defenders. An ankle injury in January played a factor in him fading badly down the stretch. He will get the minutes, but if he or Chris Butler does not step into the void created by Spacek's departure, the effects on the offense may be felt throughout the whole lineup.
Clarke Macarthur has been an offensive contributor at every level and playing alongside Pominville and Connolly should have the opportunity to score in the NHL. Macarthur brings a smooth game with great puck skills and is not afraid to mix it up, but he is rendered ineffective when his intensity lapses. This inconsistency landed him in Lindy Ruff's doghouse in March and until he can bring the effort that lead him to average a point per game in Rochester, he will struggle to produce in the NHL.
Normally I would have placed Nathan Gerbe in the prospects section, but the AHL rookie of the year has too much skill to leave him off this list. Although he looked overmatched last season in the NHL, Gerbe possesses the work ethic, game breaking offensive skill and the up yours attitude of a young Theo Fleury to not succeed. Gerbe put up 35 goals in his final NCAA season and 30 goals as an AHL rookie. With only Clarke Macarthur standing in the way of top 6 minutes, I like the gamble of him making a big impact in 2010. Hand him sweater 14, a tinted visor and an AA membership and we can pencil him in for 80 points per season.
Just kidding. Lalime and I go way back.
The Sabres minor league cupboard is stocked with a mixture of NHL ready players and youngsters with potential who are still in the development stage. They are not lacking in superstar potential as Tyler Myers blossomed into a franchise defenseman over the 2009 season. With developing young players a necessity in budget conscious Buffalo, the Sabres are positioned well to rejoin the leagues elite in the near future.
What once was once touted as a project pick because of fears of a lack of offensive upside in his game, Tyler Myers has matured into a potential franchise defenseman. At 6'8", the Zdeno Chara comparisons are inevitable. Chara's development was slow, and one would expect a similar learning curve for Myers. He is remarkably agile and coordinated for his size and with the Sabres searching for a PP quarterback his time in Buffalo may not be as far off as previously anticipated. His maturation will likely take place in the NHL, but it is unlikely that he will make an immediate fantasy impact. With his skill set and a future PIM monster he is a definite patient keeper league stash.
The only thing separating Jhonas Enroth from an NHL roster spot is Patrick Lalime. That is akin to Fredo blocking the path of Michael Corleone as the head of the Italian Mafia (Can you feel my love for Lalime?). Enroth avoided any transition problems as he took his success with Sodertalje and had a solid North American debut in Portland. He flashed his reputation as a player who thrives under pressure with a 2.27 GAA and a .940 SV% in a first round loss to Providence. Ultimately Enroth's biggest obstacle to fantasy success is Ryan Miller. Enroth has the potential to be a number one in the NHL as he possesses the athleticism, anticipation and work ethic to succeed; the only knock on his future potential is his small stature, NHL path and the fact that he looks like Peggy Olsen from Mad Men.
Ennis is a pure offensive talent who plays much bigger than his 5'9" frame. Ennis will benefit from the offensive depth in Buffalo and be afforded the time to adjust to the pro level. With great hockey sense, agility and explosive skating ability, Ennis' future will be determined on his tenacity and his ability to utilize his vision and skills to neutralize his size disadvantage. If he can translate his monster junior seasons to the AHL level, latch on and remain patient for his NHL opportunity.
The best offensive defenseman in the Sabres system, Gragnani's lack of defensive awareness is the only thing keeping him in the AHL. Gragnani has the attacking instinct required for an offensive defenseman and when coupled with his skating ability, intelligence and his precise transition skills he is only scratching the surface of his NHL potential. If he can shore up his defensive deficiencies, he has the potential to be a fantasy stud. If Sekera and Butler struggle, we may see Gragnani earlier than anticipated.
Coming off an impressive NCAA career, Kennedy didn't miss a beat as he made the AHL All-Rookie team. Kennedy is a slick playmaker who ran shotgun with Nathan Gerbe in Portland in 2009. His versatility may provide him with an opportunity in Buffalo, but his fantasy value is tied to the top two lines. With the depth the Sabres possess, and Roy, Vanek, Connolly and Pominville signed through 2010, Kennedy may not get a legit chance on the upper two lines in the Queen city.
2009 Toronto Maple Leafs Fantasy Preview
Editor's Note: Wamsley, a contributor to Habs Eyes on the Prize (don't hold it against him...necessarily) as well as the editor of Fantasy Sense Hockey, has provided his fantasy preview of the 2009-2010 Maple Leafs.
It is a pretty grim indication of your team's fantasy prospects when the highest profile individual on your team is the General Manager.
Brian Burke is the current face of the Toronto Maple Leaf and his presence bodes well for a bright future in T.O.
Starting from scratch is not easy, but with a farm system bereft of top-level talent, Burke has done the sensible thing and attempted to restock it on the fly through late blooming college and foreign prospects.
There will be growing pains, but if any fanbase can tolerate it, it is Maple Leaf fans. With Burke comes hope, and in Toronto, hope springs eternal.
For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.
2009 Montreal Canadiens Fantasy Preview
Who was that man wearing the receding Bob Gainey wig?
What happened to patient team building? Build the core from within? Remain cap flexible?
In a little over 24 hours, Gainey remade the face of a franchise and changed the perception of himself. Although Gainey failed to land Vincent Lecavalier, he upgraded the Canadiens talent level significantly and with that, their 2009 fantasy impact.
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Will the Canadiens score? Yes. Do not confuse Jacques Martin for Jacques Lemaire. Over his 12 year career Martin's teams have averaged a 12th place finish in defensive AND offensive efficiency. When provided with offensive talent like Doug Gilmour, Alexei Yashin, Daniel Alfredsson and Marian Hossa, his teams have been more productive offensively, than defensively (see chart between 2000 - 2004). Martin has produced ten 80+ point players in his 14 years while defensively, outside of Ron Tugnutt in 1999 and Patrick Lalime in 2003, Martin has not been able to insulate his goaltenders from their weaknesses as only three of his goaltenders have cracked the top 10 in goaltending efficiency. Even when he had an elite goaltender in Roberto Luongo he barely cracked the top 15 defensively.
The perception exists that Price will benefit and Cammalleri will suffer. His coaching history suggests otherwise. Price remains a Vezina waiting to happen. With the talent level on the Canadiens and his continued maturity, his numbers will improve. Don't sleep on the offensive talent in Montreal, Martin's philosophy is not set in stone and he will adapt to the teams offensive strengths.
It is no coincidence that Andrei Markov's ascension has coincided with a potent powerplay in Montreal. His point total has increased for five straight seasons (2005-06 he had a higher PPG average than 2007) and he is among the best fantasy options on defense. Markov's production increased each quarter from a low of .70 PPG in the first quarter to a high of .89 PPG during the playoff drive. Entering his prime, Markov's status as the number one defenseman and place on the number one powerplay unit are unchallenged. This underrated superstar posseses an elite offensive skill set and barring injury should equal or better his 2009 campaign.
The perception exists that Mike Cammalleri's 43 goals were built on the back of Jarome Iginla. Was his 80 pt campaign built on the back of Alexander Frolov? Who was propping him up at Michigan and Manchester? Geoff Koch? Tom Kostopolous? His intelligence and anticipation combined with his excellent finishing skills lead me to believe he is not in for a career regression at the age of 27. He may take some time to adjust to his new surroundings as he did in Calgary (.80 PPG in the first quarter, followed by 1.0+ PPG for the final three quarters), but he is among the fantasy elite left wingers.
Is there a player in the NHL with more pressure on their shoulders entering 2010 than Carey Price? The bus tire marks on his back are still fresh, so it is easy for those with fantasy tunnel vision to forget 75% of his season. Outside of his horrific February, Price registered a SV% of .916 or better in the remaining three quarters. At 22 his anticipation, puck tracking, gap closure and confidence are all works in progress. He is still relying on his natural ability and will grow into a franchise goalie as he matures. I anticipate more growing pains in 2010, but one need look no further than the statistical struggles of Cam Ward before he put it all together last season to understand that 2009 was part of the growth process.
Did the 7 Million dollar man collapse under the scrutiny of his bloated contract? Was it Tom Renney's restrictive system and lack of elite goal scoring talent around him? Or was he moping over the shutdown of Scores in Manhatten? Gainey has gambled that reuniting Scott Gomez with Brian Gionta and aligning him with a complimentary scorer like Mike Cammalleri will reignite the offensive upside in his game. If that doesn't work, there is always Chez Paree. The Canadiens have speed to kill and adding Gomez's vision and passing skills to that of Markov and Spacek could lead to a dominant powerplay. A healthy campaign should see him return to the 70 point range.
With the acquisition of Brian Gionta the Canadiens opened themselves up to the criticism of being to small. If size was the biggest determining factor for NHL success, this profile would be highlighting Pierre Dagenais, and not the 5'7" Gionta. With Gionta's dogged determination and energy, he will become a fan favourite. The perception is that he is inconsistent, but the outlier in his career is the 89 point season. At 30 years old the smart bet is a return to the 50-60 point range that he has settled into over the last 4 seasons.
Through 55 games, Andrei Kostitsyn had 38 points and was on pace for 56 points (a 3 point improvement on his breakout campaign, even though "L'artiste" and the "little girl" had booked 2009 off). From February 13-19th he posted 7 points in 4 games (4G, 3A). On February 20th La Presse ran an article implicating him in illegal activities. From Feb 21-Apr 22 Kostitsyn produced 4 points in 21 games. Let me see Puck Prospectus use that as a comparable in predicting future outcomes. Off ice distractions likely affected his production over the last 20 games. Because of this he is outside of the fantasy tunnel vision and a prime candidate for a breakthrough season and a potential sleeper.
Why didn't Gainey just hand Jaroslav Spacek sweater number 32? The Canadiens underestimated the importance of Mark Streit's departure and brought in the veteran Czech to help reignite the Canadiens league leading PP which dropped to 13th. Spacek has terrific passing skills and over his last 2 seasons has produced a 45 pt pace. With first unit powerplay minutes the only thing that may hamper his production is his propensity to get injured. Spacek has only managed to play 80+ games 3 times during his 10 NHL seasons and is 35 years old, so buyer beware. Unless you see him sharing "vitamins" with Chris Chelios, his production is not likely to increase.
There are two ways to look at Tomas Plekanec's progression charts. 1. From 2006-2008 he consistently improved, culminating in his 69 pt breakout season. Last season was a blip in his progression and he will return to his 2008 form. 2. 2008 was his anomaly, and his production is more in line with his other three seasons. Plekanec has excellent speed and his instincts and intelligence help in his playmaking ability. His lack of physical strength and him labeling himself a "little girl" have not helped the league wide perception that he is soft. Plekanec will not be provided the same powerplay minutes and first line ice time he received during his breakout campaign, but the Habs offensive weakness down the middle will provide him with the opportunity to bounce back from a dismal 2009. Sit and wait out his first 10-15 games and if he gets hot early, pounce on the waiver wire.
The apprenticeship of Guillaume Latendresse continues. There is no doubt he has the hands, sense and size to be an offensive force in the NHL, but is his skating an issue? After watching Dave Andreychuk ankle burn his way to 600+ goals, my guess is no. The real question is if Montreal will have the patience to see the ascension through? At 22, Latendresse has struggled with consistency. When he figures out how to utilize his offensive tools as well as his physical ones, he will fulfill his power forward potential. He is unlikely to make a fantasy impact from the 3rd line, but keep an eye on his linemates. If he finds himself with Gomez, Plekanec or Cammalleri? He could surprise. Most likely a patient keeper league stash for 2010.
Sergei Kostitsyn was a huge dissappointment in 2009. After a surprisingly productive rookie year as a 20 year old, Sergei suffered through a horrible sophomore campaign. His indifferent attitude and sense of entitlement all came to a head when he was implicated in criminal activity in La Presse. The Canadiens sent Kostitsyn down to Hamilton for disciplinary reasons and after pouting for 4 games, he rebounded with 13 points in his last 12 and a return to Montreal. Kostitsyn has great offensive potential and has scored at every level including 131 points in his final season in London and 35 points in 38 games in the AHL. If Kostitsyn can focus on the ice instead of the vodka he has long term keeper potential.
The Montreal Canadiens have one of the best minor league systems in the NHL. They have consistently landed in the top 5 rankings over the last 5 seasons and continue to produce NHL players every season. Trevor Timmins has done a strong job of stockpiling talent for the farm and continues to produce NHL talent with mid level draft choices. Although the Canadiens have plenty of prospects, outside of Carey Price, they have failed to produce any potential fantasy superstars. The Fantasy Gangster has stockpiled their top 5 fantasy prospects entering 2010.
The Canadiens continual quest to land a power forward looks to be over. Max Pacioretty like all power forwards is a work in progress and once he figures out how to use his frame effectively on the NHL level he has the potential to be an All-Star. Unlike Latendresse, Pacioretty is a strong skater with quick feet who is capable of scoring goals off the rush as well as dominate in the scoring areas. After a strong rookie campaign for the Michigan Wolverines in which he posted 39 points in 37 games Pacioretty decided to turn pro. An impressive camp almost landed him in Montreal, but his waiver eligibility resulted in him being shipped to Hamilton. He is ready for the NHL right now, but like Latendresse will not reach his fantasy potential until he finds himself on the top 2 lines. He is a definite keeper league stash and could top 80 pts and 100 PIMs in the future.
Marc Streit part deux? Yanic Weber entered the fantasy radar after his second season with the Kitchener Rangers when he posted 55 points in 59 games (17 in 17 playoff games). Weber quarterbacked the OHL champion Rangers PP and earned an OHL second team All-Star. Weber also stepped in to the Bulldogs lineup as an 19 year old and established himself as their top defenseman earning himself a spot on the AHL All Rookie team, an AHL All-Star appearance and winning the Hardest shot competition with a blast of 99.2 MPH. He has a cannonading shot from the point and the elite offensive tools to get top PP minutes in the NHL. With the Canadiens off season signings of Paul Mara, Jaroslav Spacek and Hal Gill he will likely begin the season in Hamilton. But if he continues to progress at his current rate, the Habs may attempt to deal Roman Hamrlik opening up some valuable cap space to resign Carey Price. If Spacek goes down early, Weber could make an impact in 2010.
PJ Subban is a dynamic offensive talent with a huge personality and because of an outstanding two weeks last December is now overrated. He is not overrated in the terms in which he is not an elite prospect, but the expectation level that he created on a national stage is likely unmatchable. Pat Quinn did a fantastic job of placing the energetic Subban in a position for success by playing him as a forward. Over a short tournament Subban's exuberance, speed, dedication and willingness to get his nose dirty produced a TSN star. Subban still possesses a steep learning curve to become a complete NHL level defender and with Gainey's latest shopping spree and an NHL ready prospect in Yanic Weber, Subban is likely to remain in Hamilton this season. Subban is a raw stallion oozing potential that when fully trained, has the skillset to be an offensive fantasy star.
Ben Maxwell earns this spot on his position alone. Although he does have a strong offensive toolset, Maxwell's biggest opportunity lies in the lack of offensive depth in the Canadiens system. His peers Maxim Lapierre and Kyle Chipchura project out as 3rd and 4th liners and with Tomas Plekanec becoming a UFA after the 2010 season, Maxwell could find himself in a scoring role as soon as next season. Maxwell has suffered through injury problems, possibly costing him a 2007 WHL scoring title as well as limiting him to 31 games in his final CHL campaign, but Maxwell acquitted himself well in his rookie campaign in Hamilton with 58 points in 73 games. That output earned him a 7 game stint in Montreal and a 3rd place finish among AHL rookies. If Plekanec falters Maxwell could get an NHL run much earlier than expected.
With the fifth prospect I am swinging for the fences. Names like Matt D'Agostini, Kyle Chipchura, Maxim Trunev, Steve Quailer and Danny Kristo do not produce any fantasy excitement for me. For me it is your definitive late round long shot, I could settle for the 60 pt offensive top side or I can roll the dice on a Trevor Timmins project pick that left him gushing like Cytherea after the draft. An explosive skater with creativity and elite puck skills, his potential piqued my interest. After producing 110 pts for Moscow Dynamo's second team and optimistic comparisons to Alexander Ovechkin I will be following the KHL closely this season to track Avtsin's progress.
Canadiens GM Gainey Preaches Patience for 2009 Free Agent Season
Gainey also cautioned the Canadiens might have to be patient, which was a virtue that was clearly missing among the faithful last night.
- Pat Hickey, from a Gazette article on June 27, 2009
Patience?
Bob Gainey?
Is there any other approach?
Expecting the Canadiens GM to act in an impetuous manner is as likely as Brian Burke being humble. After the events of the last 40 games of the 2009 Season and the continual failure for the Canadiens to land a superstar over the last decade, it is the last thing that the Canadiens faithful wanted to hear on the eve July 1st.
Jay Bouwmeester, Mike Cammalleri, Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin are the names that Canadiens fans dream off come Christmas in July. Are these really the moves that will make the Canadiens Stanley Cup contenders? The completion of this assignment is a parade down St. Catherines, not becoming the star of the pre-season previews. The Canadiens future lies in the hands of the youthful core that Timmins and Gainey have assembled. Spending recklessly over the next week could alter that foundation and with one of the strongest minor league systems in the NHL, cripple it's ability for the ascendancy of the next generation.
Top 50 Montreal Canadiens Statistical Goaltending performances 10-1
Mention 1972 and Ken Dryden and it is unlikely that his sophomore campaign with the Canadiens will come up, although he was edged out by Tony Esposito in the NHL goaltender efficiency ranking for a solid 2nd, 1972 is all about the Summit Series. Dryden never really played well against the Russians (something he feared because of their passing game), and outside of winning Game 8, his biggest contribution is his personal account of the series for SI in 1973. His frank assessment's, his wavering confidence and his ability to fight self doubt to emerge victorious bring great insight into him and the classic series.
What would Dryden have been worth in a 1970s keeper league fantasy pool?
Seven seasons, five 1st place finishes, a 2nd place finish and he bottomed out at 4th? It is so dominant that a Gretzky like - rule would not have been out of the question. Even though his career impact is somewhat minimized because of the Canadiens dynasty, his career numbers are mindblowing.
Roy continued his dominance in 1990 with the aid of Pat Burns stifling defensive system. Roy and Allaire continued to redefine the position as Roy's SV% began to reach stratospheric levels.
Roy lead the league in wins, GAA , SV% and was the number one rated goaltender during the season. His success lead to his second straight Vezina trophy.
Roy continued his strong play in a first round defeat of the Sabres, but could not defeat the Bruins as he surrendered 13 goals in 5 games and succumbed to his nemesis Cam Neely for the second time in 3 years. Between 1988 and 1996, the only team to defeat Patrick Roy outside of the Stanley Cup Final was the Bruins.
Dryden's final season saw him once again lead the league in goaltending efficiency and lead the Canadiens to another Stanley Cup - his 6th in only 8 seasons. But his final season was a struggle, a fact he alluded to in "The Game". The struggle to get up for every game, the commitment to excellence and the ability to hold off the hungrier teams as they took aim at the Champions on a nightly basis. The Canadiens failed to finish first overall and their performance had dropped from their peak level of 1977. Their 17 losses almost matched their loss total from the previous 2 seasons (18).
They struggled to hold off the Bruins in their classic 7 game semi-final and Dryden was slated for the bench in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals until fate intervened with a slap shot to Bunny Larocque's face. The Canadiens faithful booed Dryden's announcement as the starting goaltender in Game 2 at the Forum. Over his Canadiens career he won 6 Stanley Cups and was 201 games above .500 and yet he was booed.
Carey Price, don't feel so bad, apparentlty idiocy is hereditary.
I had always assumed that I just latched onto whatever Canadiens goaltender was in net as a kid. Looking back, the 1980 season provided Denis Herron's 25-3-3 record, and in 1981, Richard Sevigny posted 20-4-3 numbers. In 1982 and 1983 combined, Wamsley was 50-19-12. Finally, when the Canadiens system did not produce a great goaltender, Steve Penney shows up out of the wilderness and leads the Canadiens to within two games of the Stanley Cup Finals.
I was latching on to these goaltenders because they looked like stars to a kid's eyes. The reality of the situation is that ALL of them were system goaltenders. The way their careers played out proves just this.
I am constantly under fire at fantasysensehockey for suggesting that goaltenders like Tim Thomas, Nik Backstrom, Chris Osgood etc are a product of their system. History is littered with Roman Turek's, Roman Cechmanek's, Byron Dafoe's and Rick Wamsley's. Individuals who spend 80% of their careers treading water until placed in an insulated system.
The logic that Tim Thomas all of a sudden became elite at the age of 34 is absurd. If history has taught us anything, it is that it repeats itself. He is not an MVP like some would suggest, he is about a valid Vezina winner as Bob Froese would have been in 1986 when he posted one of the greatest statistical seasons in NHL history.
Wamsley comes in at number 6, but the trap is responsible, and the 1976-1992 trap dominates the top 10 of this list. Hey, Jersey, we want out system back!
Another Vezina, another Stanley Cup and 700 more opportunites for Denis Brodeur to capture the pose.
The 1981 season for the Canadiens was a horror show in goal. The season started with Herron and Larocque as a tandem. Larocque won 11 straight and took the starting job. He injured his hand and with Herron struggling they were both benched for Nova Scotia call ups Richard Sevigny and Rick Wamsley. Wamsley got off to a strong start and then took a puck in the throat and Larocque was back in the picture. When Larocque struggled, he was replaced by Herron, who had been benched for over 6 weeks. Larocque demanded a trade, and he was promptly shipped to the Leafs.
Thanks to Sevigny's efforts, Larocque and Herron's names are etched on the Vezina trophy. Having two goalies with a combined record of 22-18-9 with a 3.30 GAA average as award winners was ridiculous, and it is likely because of this that the NHL decided to change the criteria for the winner of the Vezina.
Although Sevigny was a statistically deserving recipient, he had a hand in assuring that he never had his name on it again.
After consecutive playoff failures in which the Canadiens could not contain their opposition, Scotty Bowman spent the off-season convincing the Canadiens that they could not win without renewed emphasis on defense. Where 1974's failures could have been written off due to the absence of Dryden, it has to be considered that the Canadiens offense were outplayed by the "French Connection" line. By 1975, it was time for a change in philosophy.
The renewed commitment to defense resulted in cutting 51 goals off their 1975 totals and lead Dryden to 4 of the top 7 statistical seasons in post expansion history. The Canadiens lead by the Big 3 and defensive forwards Bob Gainey, Doug Jarvis and Doug Risebrough won 4 consecutive Stanley Cups. Over those 4 seasons the Canadiens lost only 51 of 368 games and lead the league in defense every year. Larocque put up great numbers (think Chris Osgood), but placing Dryden in that situation produced Hall of Fame numbers.
The 1989 season finally saw the maturation of Roy as a goaltender. Although he had put up great statistical seasons after his rookie year, it was the 1989 campaign which saw the light finally turn on. Previously Roy struggled to outperform Brian Hayward and had benefitted from the shelter of a league leading defense, but the hiring of Pat Burns combined with the tireless work of ally Francois Allaire resulted in his goaltending epiphany. Roy lost only 5 of 48 starts and was undefeated at home during the regular season.
Roy could not sustain his home success into the playoffs, as he lost 4 of his last 6 home starts and the Habs fell in 6 games to the Flames in the Stanley Cup Final. Combining Pat Burns defensive system with the young superstar was like a goalie on steroids, as Roy won 3 of the next 4 Vezina trophies and began his ascent to NHL legend status.
It is no surprise that the number one statistical season in Canadiens history coincides with the record setting 60-8-12 season of 1977. If Larocque had played 30 plus games there is a good possibility they would have finished 1-2 on this list. The pose was on display nightly as Dryden was rarely tested all season. The record setting squad did not lose back to back all season. The only time Dryden was tested was during the Stanley Cup semi-finals. During a 4 game sweep of the Blues and the first two games against the Islanders, Dryden allowed 7 goals in 6 games, but the Isles managed to beat him 9 times over two games to force a 6th game. It was the only games Dryden would lose in the playoffs as the Habs won 5 straight for their second consecutive championship, defeating the Bruins 4-0 in the Finals.
Dryden's 1977 season is one of the greatest statistical seasons ever produced by a goaltender.
Top 50 Montreal Canadiens Statistical Goaltending performances 20-11
Dryden didn't take long to regain his form after his return from his one year sabbatical, but for only the second time in his career he failed to win his last game. Dryden's 1974-75 season was also the worst of his career as he finished 4th in the league in efficiency. The Canadiens could not hold off Buffalo's "French Connection" as they failed to defeat them in the regular season and went down in 6 games in the playoffs. The Canadiens record vs the Sabres in 1975: 2-8-1.
Dryden took the embarrassment of his 4th place finish by winning 4 straight Stanley Cups and 4 straight Vezina's to end his career.
Herron enjoyed a monster 1980 season as he stole the starting job from Bunny Larocque, but once again, you can't take your regular season stats with you to the playoffs. While it took him 34 games to amass 3 losses in the regular season, Herron only required 5 in the playoffs to lose that amount. The Drive for 5 was ultimately compromised by an injury to Lafleur and an injury to 50 goal man Pierre Larouche. Outside of his mask, I will always remember Herron for the giveaway that yielded the North Stars first goal of game 7 and him lying under a heap of players after Al MacAdam put an end to the Montreal dynasty. Not a fair fate for the journeyman netminder, but the one he left upon an impressionable 7 year old.
Roy continued to post huge numbers in 1988, but he once again trailed Hayward's performance. Roy was again handed the playoff reigns, and a shaky first round performance against the Whalers that saw Hayward have to replace him a couple of times and the first playoff loss to the Bruins in 40 years, pushed 1986 out of the minds of many.
Four years of great stats, four years of sitting on the bench waiting for his opportunity. Larocque finished the 1979 season as the 4th best statistical goaltender in the NHL, and at 26 was the heir to the Canadiens goaltending throne.
With rumours circulating about Dryden's retirement and his shakey play in Game 1 of the 1979 Stanley Cup Finals, Larocque was tabbed with his first playoff start since Dryden's sabbatical in 1974. With 1 minute to go in the pregame warmup, Doug Risebrough fired a rising shot that cracked the plastic of Larocque's mask and crashed against the goaltender's forehead. Down went Larocque and his long awaited opportunity.
He spent less than 2 more seasons in Montreal and finished up his career bouncing around the NHL.
It is easily forgotten when looking at Carey Price's 2009 struggles how insulated Patrick Roy was during his formative years. While Roy looked to be producing Vezina type numbers, he struggled to free himself from the platoon he shared with Brian Hayward and was extremely inconsistent. Hayward was a solid goaltender, but his numbers outside of the defensive cocoon in Montreal showed him to be average.
Hayward did a solid job during his 4 seasons in Montreal, but he was not a mentor for Roy, as he was determined to be the starter. His 1988 performance should have rewarded him with the starter's job as at that point he was a better goaltender than Roy. But Roy had the playoff pedigree, and at the age of 22, was the future of the Montreal Canadiens. I am not saying that Price is Roy and Halak is Hayward, but it is understandable why Gainey made the choices he did.
How do you properly adjust for a goaltender not wearing a mask? When I look at the Gumper's stats without a mask, with the pressure of 8-9 teammates with Vezina clauses in their contracts counting on him, fighting off the challenge of the hungry 22 year old Vachon, yet posting the best statistical season in the league at 38, then going 11-0 in the playoffs while allowing only 3 goals in the Stanley Cup Final, I am impressed.
Armed with a brand new $3M contract, Roy continued the momentum from the 1993 playoff run. He finished 2nd behind Dominik Hasek in efficiency, but once again the Canadiens encountered their nemesis - the Boston Bruins - in the playoffs. The Habs went into the Boston Garden and won twice (a building they had gone 2-11 over the previous 5 playoff series), with Roy missed game 3 while his appendix was removed. The resulting 6-3 loss proved to be the difference in a tight series, as the Canadiens lost in 7 games and exited the playoffs in the first round for the first time in 10 seasons.
Roy's final season with Pat Burns earned him his 3rd Vezina in 4 seasons, but Burns' act had worn thin and the Canadiens struggled to defeat the Whalers in the first round and before being shockingly swept by the Bruins in round 2. The next season the Canadiens hired Jacques Demers and won their 24th Stanley Cup.
Swept by the Bruins and a new coach hired by the name of Jacques who used to coach the Blues? Hmm!
Add in a Penguins championship and it sounds like this season. I know it is a stretch, but after the last 6 months, it is all I have to hold onto.
Huet is one of the most unlikely names on this list. A throw in during the 2004 Draft Day trade that saw Radek Bonk acquired from the Kings, an early season injury left him as a non-factor during the first half of the 2006 season. Claude Julien quickly recognized that he was far superior to the artist formerly known as Jose Theodore. Unfortunately Gainey did not see as much until stepping behind the bench himself. Gainey's sudden realization lead to the dumping of Theodore, as Huet's torrid post Olympic stretch (12-4, 1.84 GAA, .937 SV% and 5 SOs) lead the Canadiens into the playoffs. Although Huet could not lead the Canadiens to post season glory, his miraculous stretch drive rewarded him with a 2 year contract extension and number 12 on this list.
During Worsley's final full season with the Canadiens, the stress of the job and his fear of flying lead him to go see the team psychiatrist. When the shrink suggested a change of occupation and GM Sam Pollock caught wind of it, the doctor was fired immediately. Worsley was able to hold it together for one more great season and his 4th Stanley Cup, before packing it in 6 games into 1970. The close of his Montreal career coincided with the close of his career as an impact goaltender. The Gumper would re-emerge with the Minnesota North Stars and play 5 more seasons, resisting the urge to wear a mask until the last 6 games of his career.
Top 50 Montreal Canadiens Statistical Goaltending Performances: 30-21
With Charlie Hodge gone in the expansion draft, Vachon split the teams goaltending duties with Worsley. Vachon caught fire mid season as he managed to allow an incredible 15 goals in 21 games. The "Junior B goalie" won 23 games for the Habs and shared the Vezina, but he was only able to see action in two playoff games as Worsley backstopped the Canadiens to another Stanley Cup.
With Roy breaking out, the days of the platoon in Montreal were over and the clock began ticking on Hayward's Canadiens career. Hayward put up another solid season with a 7th place ranking, but with his desire to be a starter, he was no longer in the Canadiens future plans.
2007 was a monster year for Carey Price. World Junior MVP, CHL goaltender of the year and the Jack Butterfield award as AHL playoff MVP. With those accomplishments on his resume the Canadiens decided to fast track Price and it paid dividends immediately.
Although inconsistent, Price managed to match Huet's play and forced the Canadiens to deal the veteran. With Huet out of the picture Price finished 14-4 and lead the Canadiens to their first regular season conference title since 1989. He posted 2 shutouts in the first round of the playoffs and became just the 4th 20 year old goaltender to win a playoff round. But Price suffered a meltdown in the second round against the Flyers, tarnishing what had been an unbelievable 17 months.
What to do for an encore? How about an inconsistent season in which he finished the playoffs stapled to the bench unable to help defend the Stanley Cup. After an easy first round victory over the Bruins he lost the starters job after a brutal effort against the Nordiques. Roy's disappointment at being benched lead him to pout over what he felt was a betrayal by Jean Perron. His work ethic suffered and when the Canadiens fought their way back into the Flyers series trailing 3-2, Perron rolled the dice with his 1986 meal ticket. Roy was not ready and tanked badly as the Flyers pumped 4 goals by him on route to a 6-3 victory and a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals. Immaturity and inconsistency marked his game until his breakout season in 1989.
The 2002 season looked like another lost one in Montreal as Saku Koivu was diagnosed with cancer during the pre-season. Things looked bleak without the Canadiens captain.
Playing a conservative defensive system backed by the 25 year old, Theodore took the fans on a joy ride that almost culminated in a Semi-Final matchup against the hated Maple Leafs. Theodore had a career season and bolstered by the return of Koivu, lead the Canadiens to their first post season appearance in 3 years. Theodore was rewarded the MVP and Vezina trophies, but his best work was done in the playoffs.
In the first round of the 2002 playoffs versus the top seeded Bruins, Theodore and the Canadiens were outshot 211-141 (79-31 in Game 5 and 6) yet won the series in 6 games. In the second round of the playoffs against the Hurricanes, Theodore had the Canadiens on the brink of a 3-1 lead against the Canes while being outshot 158-70 in the first 4 games. The walls finally came tumbling in after blowing a 3-0 third period lead in Game 4, but his season ended when he was yanked during an 8-2 loss against the Hurricanes in Montreal to a standing ovation.
A holdout and new contract was followed by 6 years of sucking and the question of whether 2002 was a fluke.
The 1991 season was the only season during the Pat Burns era in which Roy failed to win the Vezina trophy. Roy finished 6th overall in goaltending efficiency, but once again failed to live up to the legacy of 1986. Late in game 7 against the Bruins, Roy coughed up this beauty to Cam Neely to seal the Habs fate in Beantown again. The 2nd goal in a 2-1 game seven loss helped his critics pile on in attempt to discredit Roy's playoff legacy, one which he did not recover until his Conn Smythe performance of 1993.
Thibault registered a top 10 finish in goaltending efficiency and paired with his top five finish as a 20 year old the previous season, looked to be on his way to a strong career. Not a bad Canadiens debut with all the pressure from replacing Roy and playing under a coaching system lead by Mario Tremblay, Yvon Cournoyer and Steve Shutt.
Thibault couldn't handle the media and fan pressure (Carey Price 2009 anyone?) and when he finally recovered from being rushed and began to establish himself at 28, his career was derailed by knee and hip issues. Thibault will always be linked negatively in Montreal, but for 40 games in 1996 he offered the promise of a franchise goaltender for the unrelenting faithful.
When the media links Carey Price to a name like Jim Carey, it is absurd, Jocelyn Thibault is surprisingly ignored, but a much better parallel for what can go wrong when a goalie is rushed.
When crunching these numbers I was shocked to see Theodore's 2000 season finish ahead of his 2002 MVP campaign. His winning percentage and SV% is inferior, but his GAA was better and he registered 5 shutouts in 30 games! One shutout in every 6 starts behind Brisebois, Weinrich, Dykhuis, Rivet, Ulanov and Lachance?
That is impressive.
Exhibit number one why statistics LIE.
Bunny Larocque's career record: 160-89-45 - .620 career winning percentage
Patrick Roy's career record: 551-315-131 - .618 career winning percentage
Don't tell anybody from the mass media, they may use those numbers to convince the public that Larocque is a Hall of Famer.
Chris Osgood - .632 career winning percentage. Just sayin'.
Nice headband Brian, don't NHL players have veto over the pictures on their hockey card?
The 1987 season was a strong one for Hayward, coming from the Winnipeg Jets in the deal for Steve Penney, the expected backup became the starter during the 1987 playoff run helping the Canadiens get off the mat against the Nordiques in the 2nd round. Trailing 2-0 heading to Le Colisee, Hayward and the Canadiens rallied winning 4 of the next 5 and a trip to the Conference Finals.
In a bizarre decision by Jean Perron, coming off a victory in Philadelphia, Hayward was lifted for Roy trailing 3-2 to the Flyers and never regained the starters job again.
Top 50 Montreal Canadiens Statistical Goaltending Performances 40-31
Hackett was a solid NHL goaltender. Put him on the 1980-83 Canadiens, and he is likely in the top 20 of this list.
Roy's rookie season was solid, but did not leave any indication of what was to come in April and May. For me, he didn't announce his future greatness until May 5, 1986. I have had the VHS tape of Game 3 against the Rangers for over 20 years, and although it doesn't match the anxiety of watching it live, it was the first glimpse at what lie ahead. How that game or Eric Desjardin's hat trick in the 1993 finals did not make the 10 greatest games DVD is beyond me, but at least I get to watch the Heritage Classic whenever I want to.
Vachon struggled to unseat Worsley as the Canadiens starter in 1969 and was again relegated to the bench for the 1968 playoffs. He caught his break during the second round when Worsley broke his hand. Vachon stepped in and went 7-1 with a 1.42 GAA as the Habs eliminated the Bruins and swept the Blues to win the Stanley Cup. The Canadiens paved the way for Vachon's ascension by dealing Tony Esposito to the Hawks.
Thomas can thank Ken Dryden and his decision to take a $123,000 pay cut for being on this list. Dryden left the Canadiens high and dry in 1974 to intern at a law firm, leaving the duties to Wayne Thomas, Michel Plasse and a 21 year old Larocque.
Thomas enjoyed the best regular season of the three, but Larocque lead the charge into the playoffs as the defending champions flamed out in the first round, thus paving the way for the emergence of the Broad Street bully era in the NHL.
I wonder if Dryden has a fifteen minute dissertation about how he may have had a hand in the ascent of the goon era.
Theodore returned from his 2003 vacation and appeared to have regained his MVP form. Although his numbers appeared similar to his 2002 campaign, they were helped by the lowest scoring season in post expansion history. They also were strikingly similar to Mathieu Garon's. After leading the Habs to another upset of the Bruins, the perception was that Theodore had returned, but being traded for David Aebischer was an announcement to the NHL that his days as an elite goaltender were over. Fortunately for him, Pierre Lacroix and George McPhee weren't listening.
With Worsley temporarily retiring in 1969 after 8 games, Vachon had finally become the undisputed starter in Montreal. During his first season as the go - to goalie, the Canadiens missed the playoffs for the only time in 45 seasons (1948-1994). Vachon took his share of the blame and with Tony Esposito registering 15 shutouts and winning the Calder/Vezina trophy combo in Chicago, the 1969-70 season was the beginning of the end for Rogie in Montreal.
I have seen it explained before that Roy's 1993 playoff performance was overrated because he didn't raise his playoff level as much as he lowered his regular season performance. Granted his performance in the 1993 regular season was a disappointment compared to the level he had established between 1989-92, but Roy was adjusting to life without Pat Burns and the implementation of a more wide open system.
Roy's 1993 performance placed him 5th among NHL goaltenders in efficiency, not exactly a poor season. Roy gets the bulk of the credit for the 1993 Cup, but it is something that has been overplayed by the media. He was the Canadiens best player and deserving of the Conn Smythe trophy, but a 103 pt team that was leading the NHL standings with 15 games to go was not a fluke.
You don't win the Stanley Cup on goaltending alone. Eric Desjardins, Matthieu Schneider and John Leclair went on to great careers, but in 1993 were not viewed with the same amount of respect as they are now. It is easy to see why the '93 Habs were disrespected, as a Roy fan, I would love to perpetuate the myth, but it's not reality.
Jeff Hackett replaced Thibault in the Canadiens goal for the 1999 season. Hackett did an admirable job for a terrible Canadiens squad that saw Rejean Houle continue the dismantling of the one - time contender. Houle followed up the Hackett deal by unloading Mark Recchi and Vincent Damphousse as the Canadiens stumbled to their lowest point total in over 35 years. Houle managed to turn Roy, Turgeon, Damphousse and Recch into Hackett, Corson, Zubrus and a couple of draft picks. Hackett was a solid goaltender, but just happened to be in Montreal at the wrong time. During his 5 seasons the Canadiens went 161-179-48-22. Their worst stretch since the 1930's.
Dead man walking. That was Huet's 2008 season. Huet was in a walk year and with Jaroslav Halak lighting up the AHL and Carey Price coming off a huge season, it was unlikely the Habs would waste $5M in cap space to resign what they essentially viewed as a bridge. When Huet failed to outperform the 20 year old Price, he was dealt to Washington at the deadline.
In an ideal world, Huet could have acted as a mentor to Price and possibly stepped in when he faltered in the 2nd round, but the NHL 2.0 does not provide that luxury.
If anybody signed a deal with the devil it would be Steve Penney. There is nothing in his career, pre and post 1985 playoffs that could suggest what occurred for those magical six weeks and the following season. Penney had arrived like a messiah leading the Canadiens back to respectability in March of 1984, but it wasn't Penney who had signed the deal with the devil, it was the Canadiens. The dark prince to all those who love offensive hockey was responsible for the magical transformation of the journeyman goaltender. 63 games into the 1984 season the Canadiens hired Jacques Lemaire to replace Bob Berry, and with that the Canadiens choked the offense out of oppositions. Two weeks later Steve Penney joined the team.
It is no coincidence that when Lemaire left in 1985 that Penney's game left with him. Steve Penney was never relevant without Jacques Lemaire behind the bench, coincidence? I think not.
Top 50 Montreal Canadiens Statistical Goaltending Performances: 50 - 41
Robert L Note: Readers, please give a warm welcome to new Eyes On The Prize contributor Wamsley. Familiar to long time readers here, Wamsley has contributed hundreds of astute comments since this sites inception and I am proud to have him on board. Wamsley, best known from his site, fantasysensehockey, will be tackling a variety of subjects and I welcome the different perspective he will bring to the pages. Wamsley's first work here is a very admirable piece of research. So large and emcompassing, we've decided to spread it out over the course of the next week. I hope everyone will enjoy his work and effort.
Rick Wamsley.
Generally regarded as a journeyman goaltender who donned the pads for the Montreal Canadiens in the early 80s, he enjoyed a couple of solid years with the Blues and Flames, then finished up his career as a backup with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Essentially an afterthought in the glorious goaltending history of the Montreal Canadiens.
I have used the handle Wamsley for over 5 years on the web. Not because I thought he was an All-Star, but because when the Canadiens first really impacted me as a fan their goaltender was a 22 year old kid named Rick Wamsley. I decided on the name because of the impact on me, and it was obscure enough that only fans of my generation or older would remember the reference.
Recently, I started to scour through the vault at SI and did a search for Wamsley. When I came across this story about the 1982 Canadiens.
"With a goals-against average of 2.75, the Canadiens are the only club in the league allowing fewer than three a game. Berry refuses to say so, but he seems to have settled on Wamsley as his No. 1 man. At week's end Wamsley had played in 19 of Montreal's last 24 games and his 2.63 goals-against average was second best in the NHL among goalies with 20 games or more. First in the league, with a 2.57 average, was Herron...........Wamsley had lost only one of his last 19 starts and had yielded no more than three goals in 17 of them. That's some accomplishment for a man who three years ago wasn't drafted until, as he says, "they were about to shut out the lights. My theory is when your chance comes, you take advantage of it. That's how I've always survived''................ "You know you'll face about five tough shots a game," says Wamsley. "So all I must do is stop all the easy ones and half of the toughies, and we're probably going to win."
The thing that jumped out at me in those paragraph's was the reference to the teams 2.75 GAA. A mark that lead the league while the rest of the league was allowing 3 plus per game.
I also took notice of the final two quotes.
"Five tough shots a game?"
"All I must do is....stop half the toughies and we're probably going will win?"
As a kid, my recollection of the early 80s, was a Habs team that seemed like a Stanley Cup contender continually getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs. The trio of Wamsley, Sevigny and Herron put up monster regular season numbers, but failed in the playoffs EVERY year. But their statistical achievements have been forgotten in time. Wamsley's 1982 season is every bit as impressive as Tim Thomas' 2009 campaign, yet it is ignored.
It is also one of the points I consistently make on my site fantasysensehockey. History is littered with goaltenders who put up monster statistical seasons because of their surroundings. It is why I didn't pile on Carey Price this season, and why I was not waxing poetic about the superhuman effort of Tim Thomas in 2009, and am currently not buying this Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer talk during the 2009 Stanley Cup Finals.
I also wondered how much has been forgotten because of the lazy evaluation of looking at a 2.75 GAA and not properly adjusting it? This happened continually when discussing Martin Brodeur's assault on Patrick Roy's win total and the direct comparison's that were done.
How can you properly evaluate Brodeur's SV% against Roy's without considering that Roy lead the league with a .908 SV% (a season in which no other goaltender finished above .900 and the league average was .879) to Brodeur's 14th place finish of .906 (a season which the league average was .903)?
So I decided to look back to post expansion and adjust the Canadiens goaltending numbers to the average.
Patrick Roy and Richard Sevigny put up inferior numbers to Jose Theodore's 2004 campaign, but are they inferior? Theodore's 2004 campaign was slightly above average in a low scoring era. The numbers show a superior season, but the numbers are misleading. The 1980s saw 10 of the 11 highest scoring seasons post expansion, so I decided to adjust the numbers to the average.
I took the average GAA since 1968 and adjusted the numbers in relation. Patrick Roy's 1989 campaign was almost a 50% improvement on the league average, so I adjusted his numbers to reflect the mean. With all things being equal, Roy's GAA would improve from 2.47 to 2.12, whereas Theodore's 2004 campaign (the lowest scoring season post expansion) would see his number balloon from 2.27 to 2.85.
I used the same principles to adjust shutouts and SV%. Unfortunately the NHL did not track SV% pre 1983 and the lack of game logs did not allow me to adjust extra wins/losses earned in OT or shootout. So the list is by no means a bible, but it did allow for some great statistical seasons to be recognized.
With this info I decided for my Eyes On The Prize debut to list the top 50 statistical seasons registered by goaltenders wearing the bleu, blanc et rouge (30 games minimum). This is not a list determining the greatest seasons, or Jose Theodore's 2002 season would have ranked much higher.
it is viewed through a fantasy perspective, and how the straight numbers would have impacted any given fantasy season. I used the rotisserie categories of wIn percentage, save percentage, goals against average and shutouts to determine the ranking. In rotisserie hockey, each category is ranked in order. With 57 goaltenders eligible, each category had a high score of 57, and a low score of 1. After each goaltender was adjusted they were ranked and the result is the following top 50.
On to the list
The local whipping boy makes the list for his disappointing 2009 campaign. Interesting to note, for all the fans screaming for Halak, that Price nudged him from the list, and that his overall 2009 season was slightly superior.
Now think of how much better he would be if he wasn't kicking puppies, didn't have a drinking problem and wasn't smoking 25 cigarettes at once.
Thibault's last stand. After showing initial promise in 1996, Thibault was chafing under the intense pressure the Montreal media placed on him as Roy's replacement. Thibault split the work with Andy Moog, and his failure to outperform the veteran resulted in him sitting on the bench for the 1998 playoffs. Ten more games in 1999 and the Habs, upon Thibault's request, dealt him to the Blackhawks for Jeff Hackett.
Andy Moog was a Hab killer. From the 1981 playoffs where he stood on his head and helped the 14th seeded Oilers upset the 3rd seeded Habs, to his annual domination of the Canadiens while with the Bruins from 88-93.
Moog was brought in to mentor Thibault in '98, but in the end he hastened T-Bo's departure. Moog was mediocre, but Thibault was worse. The Canadiens decided to go with Moog who lead the Habs to a first round upset of the Penguins, but in the following round the Canadiens got swept out of the 2008 playoffs with the best goaltender (Jose Theodore) in the organization toiling in the minors.
In the end, his play in the second round did nothing to change his reputation as a Hab killer. With the Canadiens committing to youth in 1999, Moog retired.
Steve Penney, this is Richard Sevigny. Richard Sevigny, this is Michel Bergeron, you play for him now. Don't let the door hit you on the ass on your way out.
Huet followed up his 2006 breakout campaign with an injury plagued lemon, culminating in a brutal game 82 performance against the Maple Leafs with the season on the line. Huet left the door open and with Carey Price's 2007 Bulldogs run and Halak's strong stretch drive, the possibility for $5M per season in Montreal disappeared with the Gillette's playoff revenue.
With the starting job finally his, Vachon enjoyed a solid 1971 season, but his 1- 5 record during the regular season against the Canadiens first round opponent the Bruins, lead to the Canadiens rolling the dice with a large rookie from Cornell.
Vachon took his flamboyant personality to LA. With long hair, a fu manchu moustache and little pressure, he finished up his career an underappreciated All-Star. One wonders what his legacy would have been had he remained in Montreal.
Wamsley was not able to continue momentum from his strong rookie campaign. He battled Richard Sevigny all season for the starting job, and was rewarded with the starting gig in the playoffs.
The Habs were once again upset in round one as they suffered a 3 game sweep by the Sabres. One could hardly blame Wamsley as he gave up 3 goals in the the first two games only to watch the Habs get shut out at home in both games by Bob Sauve.
Another victim of Satan cutting a deal with Steve Penney. History will likely remember him as a piece of the bridge between Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy. The internet will remember the name as a condescending Canadiens fan using his surname.
Sevigny was the last player to wear 33 before Patrick Roy, and although his career did not resemble St. Patrick's, one part of his game did.
The 1980 season was the first season which I retain memories from. My biggest memory was that if Bunny Larocque was starting on Hockey Night in Canada instead of Denis Herron, it meant the Canadiens would lose. Looking back 30 years later at Denis Herron's 25-3-3 record, it seems the simplistic viewpoint of a 6 year old was pretty perceptive. After patiently waiting for his opportunity, Larocque crashed and burned in 1980.
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