SB Nation User Blog: Warden11

(1) Kansas 84, California 69 -- Sherron Collins, 17 points. Marcus Morris, 14 points. Tyshawn...

Warden11 — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 19:45:04 -0000

(1) Kansas 84, California 69 -- Sherron Collins, 17 points. Marcus Morris, 14 points. Tyshawn Taylor, 13 points. Xavier Henry, 12 points. Cole Aldrich, 10 points. You can't play the Jayhawks and focus on shutting down, say, Cole Aldrich without having four other guys step in and make you pay. Kansas has a plethora of offensive weapons (a la Carolina last year), which will make them the toughest team to beat in March.

The Dagger

Are Turnovers a Problem for this Team? Maybe...

Warden11 — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 16:32:10 -0000

Undefeated season here we come! As Bensa said, We're All Thinking It. However, the thoughts might be getting a little cloudy as the season progresses and a few flaws start to show themselves during games. Not to mention, Texas looking like a dynamite team so far this season. Anyway, one of those flaws that has bothered me up to this point in the season is turnovers. Being a fan means that I often get an idea stuck in my head and won't let go of it until I see proof that my idea is stupid. So is my fear of the turnover irrational right now?

It sure looks like it. There are a few red flags for the Jayhawks at the moment, but they don't seem to be any different than any of Bill Self's previous teams. And as we all know, Bill Self's teams are pretty damn good. First graph, Self coached teams assists and turnovers.

The chart doesn't show a whole lot other than his teams seem to be around 14-15 turnovers a game and have historically averaged a few more assists than turnovers every game. Obviously, a positive assist to turnover ratio is a good thing. Is it a great thing? Looking at the seasons where his teams had a negative assist to turnover ratio, his winning percentages were three of the five lowest for the thirteen seasons displayed. Of course Bill Self is one of the best coaches in the nation, so those percentages are still .750, .697, and .613. Not too bad. One last thing to notice, 2007-2008 and 2002-2003 (at Illinois). We know 07-08 was a great year and 02-03 resulted in a 25-7 record (.781%).

How does this year's team compare to his teams from the past?

The Jayhawks are averaging 19.3 assists to 12.1 turnovers per game so far. Honestly, that's much better than I expected. Taking out the Alcorn State and Tennessee Tech games, the numbers are still impressive at 17 assists to 11.75 turnovers per game. Notice the two games where the ratio isn't positive? Doesn't take a rocket surgeon (that's for you RC) to know that teams will struggle when that happens. Here's to hoping we don't see it again this season because pulling that against a better team could be really bad.

The last thing to look at is the turnover rate for this team compared to Bill Self's previous teams because as fetch9 taught us in his TFS post, per game stats don't always tell the best story. The numbers will go back to Self's first year at Illinois to this year.

Bill Self's team are pretty consistent, average right around 20%. This year's team is averaging 17%, so not a problem. Looks like turnovers aren't hurting us, yet. Those numbers from the Memphis and UCLA game have me uncomfortable going forward. What caused those games to be bad?

Big 12 Snapshot: South Edition

Warden11 — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 14:37:29 -0000

Earlier this week, we took a look at what the teams in the Big 12 North have accomplished so far this season. Today, it's time to take a look at the South division. We all know about Texas, how about the other schools?

Baylor- 8-1 this season. Baylor's only win against a major conference opponent comes courtesy of the PAC 10 and Arizona State, they also beat a tough mid-major in Xavier. Baylor's only loss comes against Alabama. Baylor has been playing at a fairly slow pace, averaging 67.4 possessions per 40 minutes and 77.2 points per game. Baylor is led in scoring by Tweety Carter (seriously, Tweety?) who averages 18.8 ppg and LaceDarius Dunn who averages a little over 17 ppg.

Texas Tech- 9-0! The Red Raiders have beaten two major conference opponents this season, Oregon State and Washington (anyone else noticing a trend about the PAC 10?). Tech is averaging 73 possessions per 40 minutes and 78.3 points per game. Mike Singletary is their leading scorer at 14.2 ppg, followed by John Roberson who averages 13.6 ppg. Should be an interesting season for Tech as Pat Knight steps farther away from his old man's shadow, does a poor conference showing put him on thin ice?

Texas A&M- The Aggies are off to an 8-2 start, major conference wins coming against Clemson and Minnesota. They've lost to West Virginia and New Mexico. A&M has played at a pretty slow pace, averaging 67.7 possessions per 40 minutes and 75.1 points per game. They do seem to be doing a good job of getting to the free throw line, second in the conference in attempts so far this season. Donald Sloan is the leader for this team, he averages 17.4 points per game and leads the team in minutes per game. One thing about A&M, their coach has to be one of the smartest men in the conference.

Oklahoma State- Okie State is 9-1, Stanford and Utah are their most impressive wins. Their only loss was a drubbing at Tulsa, losing 86-65. The Cowboys are averaging almost 70 possessions per 40 minutes and 76.4 points per game. They shoot well from the free throw line (71%) and haven't shot very well from the 3 point line (31%). They're led by James Anderson (21.2 ppg) and Keiton Page (10.7 ppg). No clue what to expect from this team, just know that going to Stillwater is always tough.

Oklahoma- The Sooners basketball team is off to a somewhat surprising slow start at 7-3. They've beaten two major conference opponents in Arkansas and Arizona. The three losses came early in the season to VCU, San Diego, and Houston. OU averages 69.4 possessions per 40 minutes and 78.4 points per game. Willie Warren leads them with 19.6 ppg and 33 minutes per game. Oklahoma seems to have figured out some things since the early speed bump, they'll be an interesting team to watch throughout the year.

Texas- The Longhorns are 9-0 this season. Biggest wins are against Pittsburgh and USC, huge game today against North Carolina. Texas has played faster than anyone in the conference, they average 74.7 possessions per 40 minutes and 85.4 points per game. The Longhorns are led by Damion James (15.4 ppg) and Dexter Pittman (13.7 ppg). If anyone is going to challenge KU's throne as Big 12 Champs, it will be these guys.

Power Rankings time?

Royals Review- It's Like They're Trying

Warden11 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 01:43:43 -0000

Royals Review- It's Like They're Trying

The comments at the end of RR always keep me entertained, this one especially. Who's trying to do what?

Big 12 Snapshot: North Edition

Warden11 — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 02:14:27 -0000

A few more games and then the season really begins for this year's Jayhawks. Kansas has had their way with the non-conference schedule up to this point, though Michigan and Tennessee are hoping to change that. Following the Tennessee game, it is full steam ahead into Big 12 play. Since I'm bored and it's a Sunday night, seems like a good time to get a snapshot of the Big 12 up to this point in the season.

Nebraska- Sitting at 7-2. Nebraska has beaten two major conference teams, USC and Oregon State. (Go Big 12 in the Hardwood Series!) Nebraska's two losses have came at the hands of St. Louis and Creighton, two solid mid-major programs. Averaging 67 points per game and only 64 possessions for 40 minutes tells you what you need to know about Doc Sadler's group. They're going to play slow and deliberate. They're also going to do all they can to keep the score down to give themselves a chance to win the game at the end. Winning scores of 51-48 and 50-44 should tell you all you need to know. Not saying they're a terrible team, just how Doc coaches.

Iowa State- The Cyclones are sitting at 7-3. They've beaten one major, Iowa. They also beat St. Louis at the end of November. Tough losses to Northwestern, Northern Iowa, and California. Iowa State plays a little faster than Nebraska, averaging 68 possessions for 40 minutes and 76 points per game. Key players are Craig Brackins (he's good) and Marquis Gilstrap. Brackins is averaging 18.2 points per game and Gilstrap is averaging 13.5. Stop Brackins and they are in trouble.

Colorado- The Buffs are 6-4. Colorado has yet to beat a major conference opponent this year, although they did give Arizona and Gonzaga all they wanted early in the year. The Buffaloes play a similar speed to Iowa State, averaging 68 possessions for 40 minutes and 78 points a game. They're only shooting 24.9% from the three point line on the year, not a good number. High scorers are Cory Higgins (19.7 ppg) and Alec Burks (16.1 ppg). Looks like another long year for the Buffaloes in Big 12 play, although they do have a former NBA coach!

Missouri- The Tigers are 6-3 and coming off a whooping of Farleigh Dickinson. Oregon is their only major conference victory, but they did spank the hell out of them. Losses to Vanderbilt, Richmond, and a close one at Oral Roberts. Missouri plays as fast as anyone in the conference, averaging 73.4 possessions per 40 minutes and 81.7 points per game. Offensively, the Tigers spread the scoring around with Kim English leading the way at 15.9 points per game. Bowers and Denmon follow along at 10 and 11 ppg. I'm not sure anyone knows what to expect from this team, scoring 106 against Oregon and only 52 against Richmond.

Kansas State- The Wildcats are coming off their biggest win of the year last night, beating UNLV 95-80. Other notable wins include Washington State and Xavier (what happened SlowDance?) Their only loss was to Mississippi three weeks ago. The Wildcats average 72 possessions per 40 minutes and 81.6 points per game. Their leading scorers are Jacob Pullen (19.2 ppg) and Denis "Slappy" Clemente (14.8 ppg). The Wildcats also have some new guys who are starting to figure things out, once that happens they will be a tough team. Personally, I'll be shocked if they're not a 6 seed or higher come tourney time.

Kansas- Hey, no losses! Notable wins include at UCLA and against Memphis. Right now, the Jayhawks are averaging 71.6 possessions per game and 90.3 points per game (good for 3rd in the nation). Kansas is shooting a ridiculous 44% percent from the 3 point line. Leading scorers include Xavier Henry (18 ppg), Sherron Collins (13.3 ppg) and Cole Aldrich (12 ppg), and the Morri (18.6 ppg).

Big 12 South later this week.

Hey Bill- Schedule Someone (Good) Please!

Warden11 — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 16:52:35 -0000

As Jayhawk fans are glued to various blogs, message boards, and other news sources waiting for Lew to make his big hire, the basketball team (yes, KU has a basketball team) is rolling along steamrolling inferior programs at home. The Jayhawks have played a couple of good programs, Memphis (neutral) and on the road at UCLA. However, the majority of the teams we are seeing aren't giving us much of a glimpse as to how this team will handle the good teams in the Big 12 and NCAA tournament. Why is Coach Self filling the schedule with creampuffs? Lets compare the super weak schedule to that of North Carolina and Kentucky, two other teams who have a realistic goal of cutting down the nets as One Shining Moment is played by CBS.

For the comparison of this year's schedule, I took the first 15 games for the three teams. Looked up their opponents final ranking in 2009 according to KenPom. Results after the jump.

Kansas' opponents average KenPom ranking at the end of 2009 was 123. That number was lower than I expected, but it does include Memphis' number 2 finish and UCLA's number 12. Those two schools aren't likely to finish that high this year. Memphis (2) was obviously the highest ranked team followed by UCLA (12), Tennessee (31), Cal (32), Temple (47), and Michigan (50).

North Carolina has played a brutal schedule this year, right? The average KenPom 2009 ranking is 151. Much worse than expected. Carolina's schedule includes games with Michigan St (8), Syracuse (15), Texas (23), and Ohio State (37). Wait, they also played Kentucky who finished last year at 52. Kentucky appears to be looking at a much stronger finish this year.

Kentucky is the last school I looked at, how are they challenging Calipari and Wall? Average KenPom finish for their opponents in 2009 was 140. Once again, a worse average than expected. Kentucky's schedule has included UNC (1), UConn (3), and Stanford (49). Three schools in the top 50?

In the end, I guess KU's schedule hasn't been any weaker than schools in a similar situation. The Jayhawks haven't played the top flight schools this year, but they were scheduled. Memphis and UCLA looked like huge games when they were scheduled. Facing six teams that finished 2009 in the top 50 before even getting to conference play is impressive.

Notes: Used KenPom rankings because they're easy. Only looked at these three schools because it's December and I haven't done any Christmas shopping. Might come back and look at the top 10 or Big 12 in the future.

Update: Changed the graphs, I think these are a better representation of what I want them to show.

One day a GM Manifesto will be released with a list of some of Moore's more ridiculous moves and at...

Warden11 — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 14:50:21 -0000

One day a GM Manifesto will be released with a list of some of Moore's more ridiculous moves and at the bottom it will read "Do not try this at home." I think he may actually be toying with the theory of fielding a replacement level team just to see if all our WAR estimates were right.

Here

Even outsiders who aren't on the "automatically hate on GMDM" bandwagon are weighing in...

Dezmon's Tutors- 133.5 Cry Baby Cutler's- 106.4

Warden11 — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:08:28 -0000

Dezmon's Tutors- 133.5

Cry Baby Cutler's- 106.4

That is all.

OT- AMC Theaters ban outside food and drink

Warden11 — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 22:46:07 -0000

OT- AMC Theaters ban outside food and drink

Posted this more because I always assumed outside food and drink has always been banned at movie theaters.

Do you normally take your own food and drink to theaters without hiding it?

Q: If the boxing higher-ups had any sense whatsoever they would give us Pacman/Mayweather in six...

Warden11 — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 02:26:08 -0000

Q: If the boxing higher-ups had any sense whatsoever they would give us Pacman/Mayweather in six months. I would stop everything to have a fight night party for this event. I have not paid for a boxing event since Holyfield/Lewis in 1999 but I would spend at least $300-$500 to see this. What is the holdup?
-- Seth Johnson, Middletown, N.Y.

SG: It's going to be disappointing. Just warning you now. Floyd Mayweather Jr. could never in a million years trade punches with Manny Pacquiao. He will be on his bicycle for 12 rounds. There is no way that, at this point in his life, Mayweather wants any part of Pacquiao, a concrete-headed, indefatigable freak of nature who can finish with either hand from every angle. If Mayweather gets in the ring, he'll end up doing more laps than Steve Prefontaine did for the University of Oregon. Just keep your guard up when you're spending that $64.95.

Bill Simmons Mailbag

Simmons isn't known as a boxing guy, but this made me laugh.