SB Nation User Blog: Watubi

The Sweaterphone is ringing

Watubi — Thu, 02 Aug 2007 15:46:57 -0000

If Krivsky can wait until Monday, so as not to disturb the team chemistry on the flight home, he can re-sign one of his
favorites. Of course, if he waits until Monday, it might be too late. I'm sure the market is just busting for aging middle infielders who can't hit or field.

That key signing, and a promotion for Chad Moeller surely will right all the wrongs in the universe.

Coffey doesn't suck (aka Narron has blown out the bullpen in 2 1/2 weeks)

Watubi — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 03:34:02 -0000

Coffey shouldn't have been in the game, but not because he's horrible. He had no business being out there after pitching the previous two nights. Even though he looked great last night against the Brewers, only throwing 7 pitches, he threw 26 on Monday night. He'd also been in nine of the first 14 games (before tonight), which brings us to the bigger point.

Even though he has seven relievers, Narron has blown out virtually the entire bullpen in two weeks and three days. Just take a look at the stats through 14 games (Tuesday's win over Milwaukee):

Saarloos 9 appearances
Coffey 9 appearances
Stanton 8 appearances
Santos 7 appearances
Weathers 7 appearances
Cormier 5 appearances
Coutlangus 5 appearances

After tonight, it's 10 appearances in 15 games for Coffey and 8 for Santos.

This shit just can't go on. Coffey is on pace for 108 appearances, Saarloos 97, Stanton and Santos 86 each, and Weathers 76. There is no way on earth that any of these guys can sustain this kind of workload through May, much less the end of September. Hell, they're already starting to show signs of being tired.

None of this is Krivsky's fault. Sure, he should never have signed Cormier or traded for Saarloos, but what Narron is doing to the relievers' arms is beyond ridiculous.

So what if I've got a dirty mind

Watubi — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 20:18:11 -0000

OK. I couldn't resist. I started thinking about Dick Pole ("You said 'Dick.'" "Heh heh, well you said 'Pole.'") being pitching coach, walking out to the mound to have a conversation with Jon Coutlangus, and my mind went to all sorts of sordid directions, like hoping one would get uniform number six and the other number nine, a la that picture of Bob Uecker in Catcher In The Wry.

So I of course wondered who among the broadcast team was going to snicker the first time he had to say, "Dick Pole going down, I mean, out to the mound to have a word with Coutlangus."

Poll

Who will be the first to butcher "Jon Coutlangus" into something dirty?

Chris Welsh

2 votes

Public Address announcer Joe Zerhusen

6 votes

Marty Brennaman

1 votes

Thom Brennaman

0 votes

Jeff Brantley

12 votes

George Grande

17 votes

38 votes | Poll has closed

It's Not Adam Dunn's Fault

Watubi — Tue, 19 Sep 2006 16:17:03 -0000

With all the whining that's gone on the past week on the Reds blogosphere, on the call-in shows, and in the newspapers, you'd think that if the Reds could just get rid of Adam Dunn, they'd be sailing into the World Series.

Sure Dunn hasn't been very productive the last month, but I suspect he's got some sort of a minor injury. His throwing arm, which even though not particularly strong, normally is accurate, however lately his throws have been far, sometimes extremely far, offline. He's also not getting good swings at the ball, and an injury to his right shoulder or elbow could explain his poor throws and his sometimes anemic swings.

But enough about Dunn. Even with a .240 batting average, he's still getting on base regularly, which means he's still helping the team.

(more below ...)

The last couple of days, Reds radio voice Marty Brennaman has been talking considerably about the reasons for the Reds collapse, and what the club might do in the offseason to make the club more competitive. During Monday's series opener in Houston, Brennaman said he thought the Reds would trade Dunn over the winter. Marc Lancaster of the Cincinnati Post, normally a consistent voice of reason among the local writers, countered and said he didn't think there was any way Cincinnati would trade its only true slugger.

But then Lancaster said something odd. He went on to say that the Reds needed to get more guys who could "manufacture runs." I'm assuming he meant more guys like Ryan Freel, speedy white guys who "hustle" and play the game "the right way," whatever that means. Guys who hit .300 but don't draw walks (which Freel does do, by the way) and don't hit for extra bases. Guys like Norris Hopper, apparently, because Lancaster said that was one of the big questions the writers asked Narron during their pregame meeting. "Will Norris Hopper make the 2007 roster out of spring training?"

Don't misinterpret anything, please. I like Freel, and he's certainly proved me wrong about his ability and his value in the past couple of seasons. But you can't win division titles and make postseason appearances with a lineup full of players like him, or worse, overrated guys like Juan Pierre. His lack of plate discipline is a big part of the problem the Cubs have scoring runs.

No, the Reds season turned long before Dunn slumped, or Ken Griffey, Jr., got hurt (again), or before Narron decided to run a sore-armed pitcher out to the mound, or before Chris Michalek, Jason Johnson and Sun-Woo Kim began to pitch meaningful innings. Injuries to Elizardo Ramirez and Brandon Claussen, which resulted in less than desirable starting pitchers taking the hill, certainly hurt, but they weren't the fatal blow.

It should be no great surprise that what ultimately did the Reds in was GM Wayne Krivsky's ill-fated trade of Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to Washington for a bunch of relief pitchers who A) didn't work out, and B) weren't all that good to begin with.

Krivsky pulled the trigger on the deal because the Reds limped into the All-Star break by losing eight of nine games. The bullpen, which wasn't all that good to begin with, was really struggling, and something had to be done. But there were a lot of other things Krivsky could have done besides trade away two key offensive components.

The Reds stood 45-44 after losing to Atlanta on July 9, their last game before the All-Star break. But they were third in the league in runs, behind the Mets and Dodgers, and led the league in home runs. Since then, the Reds have dropped to fifth in the league in homers, and are 13th in the league in runs scored.

Krivsky shouldn't have made the trade at all. Sure the Reds were struggling, but it was their first real challenge of the season, and more importantly, Krivsky should have realized that all teams, even the playoff contenders, go through rough stretches.

The White Sox lost 10 of 12 games immediately following the All-Star break, but Kenny Williams didn't trade Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede for Michael Wuertz and Alan Embree. And the White Sox certainly weren't alone among this year's good teams. The Dodgers lost 13 of 14 after the All-Star break, Oakland lost 10 of 11 in May, the Phillies started the season 1-6, lost 9 of 11 in May and went 6-20 from June 8 to July 7. The Marlins were 15-33 on May 28, and also played poorly before the All-Star break, losing 7 of 10. San Diego lost 7 of 9 after the break, the Twins lost 10 of 14 in April and early May, and lost another five in a row (to division rivals Detroit and Chicago) in mid-may to stand 17-24 at the time.

St. Louis, which is going to win the NL Central again, lost eight straight at the end of July and the start of August.Detroit, still with the second best record in the American League, went 10-22 in August and early September, and only recently started playing better. The Yankees, who have the best record in the AL, lost 8 of 11 in June, and the Mets, easily the best team in the National League, lost 6 of 7 and 7 of 9 in late June and early July.

Of all those teams, only the Reds and Phillies traded away significant players, and you have to think that the Phillies would be in much better shape if they had Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle back.

Going back further in Reds history, the 1990 club, which went wire-to-wire, lost 8 of 9 in June, and lost 8 in a row and 11 of 13 in late July and early August. Even the '76 Reds, easily the best team in baseball that year, lost 8 of 12 from Aug. 14-26.

So the moral of the story is, you can't afford to panic and make really bad deals, especially when you're talking about setup men. Krivsky later proved that you can get halfway decent arms in July and August without paying a fortune, by getting Rheal Cormier, Eddie Guardado, and Scott Schoeneweis for little.

It's somewhat worrisome that in about seven months Krivsky has nearly completely dismantled the best offense in baseball (also gone is Wily Mo Pena, though it's hard to complain too much about that trade so far, given how surprisingly well Bronson Arroyo has pitched; Krivsky still should have gotten more for Pena, however) in favor of "pitching and defense." That most overused of all baseball clichés, sounds really good, but only works if you actually have the pitching and have enough offense to be competitive. The Reds, sadly, now might not have either, which is why they've been 28-33 since the All-Star break, and 6-16 in the last three weeks.

Brennaman might be right about the prospects for next year being rather grim. But it's not because of Adam Dunn. It's because Royce Clayton, perhaps the worst everyday player in the big leagues, the four-headed monster in right of Hopper, (a vastly overmatched) Chris Denorfia, Dewayne Wise, and Todd Hollandsworth, and Jason LaRue (2-3 days a week) are just sucking all the life out of the offense. If those guys are everyday players in 2007, the Reds have no hope of contending. It's as simple as that.

ESPN.com's Keith Law is smoking crack again

Watubi — Mon, 31 Jul 2006 18:59:49 -0000

From his Insider page on the Lohse trade:

"This is a sensible need-for-need deal: The Reds needed more pitching, and the Twins needed to get rid of Kyle Lohse in the worst way.

Lohse had been out of favor in Minnesota for some time, due in no small part to his awful performance as a starter at the beginning of this season, but he's pitched effectively out of the bullpen for the past two months and could fill a similar role for the Reds. He does have four average or better pitches, with a plus cutter. And if his command improves -- perhaps the switch to the weaker league will help -- he could even give the Reds some help in their rotation. One caveat is that he's another flyball pitcher coming to the Great American Home Run Park.

The Twins get a good return for a player they didn't want. Zach Ward, the Reds' third-round pick from 2005, has a very good arm, with a sinking fastball up to 94 mph, a solid-average slider, and a funky delivery that creates good deception but that he finds hard to repeat, leading to command problems. He's pitched well, but not extremely so, for low-A Dayton this year. As a college product he should probably be challenged with high-A competition immediately."

I really have no idea what makes Law think Ward hasn't pitched extremely well this year:

20 games (18 starts), 114 IP, 74 hits, 37 walks, 0.97 WHIP, 95 Ks, 2.29 ERA, 2 HR (TWO!!!!).

In addition, last year at Gardner-Webb college, Ward gave up 18 extra base hits in 429 at-bats, had a .238 batting average against, a .328 slugging against, and their web site made him out to have a 95 mph fastball and an 87 mph slurve.

What GM of any team that plays in a HR haven, gives up a guy who's allowed two home runs in 114 innings for anything less than Mariano Rivera?

More worrisome is what the Reds do to the bullpen now. Exchanging Watson for Cormier leaves them with 12 pitchers. Assuming Lohse(r) is a reliever, then one of Bray, Coffey, Cormier, Guardado, Majewski, Shackelford, Standridge or Weathers has to go. And another one has to go by Saturday when Claussen will pitch.

As badly as he's pitched, Majewski could use a week or two in Louisville, but then who? Shackelford, since there would still be three lefties in the bullpen, I guess.

It's probably too much to hope for a D.F.A. for D.F. Weathers ...

Bronson Arroyo isn't the only Reds musician

Watubi — Tue, 11 Jul 2006 23:24:21 -0000

It looks like Arroyo will have some competition for the next Reds fundraiser.

I really have no idea how old this picture is. I'm guessing maybe late 1990s. Either way, we all now know just exactly what
Aaron Harang did in the offseason to make a little extra money while he was toiling away in the minor leagues.

Tony Womack is now 0-for-2

Watubi — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 17:33:24 -0000

My heart just bleeds for Tony W.

Geez. Officially he lasted 10 more games with the Cubs than he did with the Reds.

So where does he go from here? I'd say maybe the Royals need a second baseman, but even Mark Gruzdielanek (.702) has a higher OPS than Tony F. Womack (.695). The Pirates? Nope. Jose Castillo is at .795.

Hopefully, the world has seen the last of Tony Womack in a big league uniform.

No Reds comeback for Pot Roast

Watubi — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 18:23:07 -0000

Krivsky and Narron both get extended. I think it's a good move. - JD

I'm so sad.

Krivsky gets a thumbs up vote from me so far, but I don't like Narron's unwillingness to rely on young players. He wouldn't have played Encarnacion at third at all this year had EdE not hit 42 home runs in spring training.

A big part of me was hoping the Reds would tank this year, which would have been blamed on O'Brien, and then Castellini could have brought back Lou Piniella.

I know Piniella would never have managed a team like the Reds, but hey -- it's my fantasy, I can have it however I like.

Zach Day

Watubi — Fri, 21 Apr 2006 23:54:42 -0000

Since Zach Day got DFA'd by the Rockies today the big question for tonight is how many times in 9 innings will Chris Welsh and George Grande lobby for the Reds to pick him up?

I know he's from Cincinnati, and he must be a likeable guy for everybody to gush over him like a schoolgirl, but he's 27 and has gotten run out of Washington and Colorado in short order.

Day's Pitching Wins total for 2005, according to the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, was -1.0, and his career total is -0.5. Maybe you'd consider taking a chance on him if he weren't 27, but he is, and that's that. For the record, Dave Williams had -0.4 Pitching Wins last year, and he's left-handed and we all know how he's turned out.

Reds trade Dunn (rectroactive to before 2005 season)

Watubi — Mon, 20 Mar 2006 18:33:27 -0000

From mlb.com's piece on the Arroyo/Wily Mo trade:

"After a breakout season in 2004 in which he belted 26 homers in just 336 at-bats, Pena was squeezed in and out of the lineup throughout 2005 due to the Reds' crowded outfield that also included Ken Griffey, Jr., Austin Kearns and Ryan Freel."

A friend of mine just said that Dunn must be the most underrated player in the game, and after reading that paragraph, I'd have to agree. How do you leave out the guy who's hit 40 or more homers each of the last two years and who appeared in the most games in the outfield of anybody the Reds had last year???