Robbins reports that the Magic plan to speak to Dwight about his future sometime before the trade deadline, and proceed depending on whether he tells them he wants to stay. Forgetting for a moment the profound absurdity of this statement (WTF do they expect him to say after he's been unequivocally lukewarm in his regard for the franchise for months, combined with his media tirade after the blowout losses?) lets go ahead assume he stands firm in his trade demand.

Its becoming increasingly clear that between Otis' predilection for overpriced, past-their-prime veterans, and the Old Man's desire to field a competitive team in his remaining years, the Magic are going to be treading in mediocrity for the foreseeable future, armed with the likes of Bynum and maybe Gasol. Everyone knows the best way to rebuild in this league is to blow up your team--cast away every veteran for picks, cap space, young prospects; await the imminent departure of your dead-weight contracts; and rebuild through the draft armed with high lottery picks. No way thats happening with a Dwight trade.

So if he's out the door anyway, why not go the other way and triple down on what remains of the Howard era? Swing for the fences by going after Deron Williams before the deadline. NJ has nothing to offer that entices Orlando--neither to the fanbase (Lopez...ehhh) or to management, who apparently want proven vets and not a boatload of picks. So they aren't getting Dwight. Which means Derons going to be scoping out mansions in the DFW area on zillow after March 15th. The only other contenders for a noncommitted rental on DWill will be the Lakers, who would offer what, Pau? Maybe thats enough for NJ, who needs a franchise face for their move to Brooklyn, but he comes with a massive contract and downhill production. Orlando could maybe do better by offering Rhino. After all, its not like DWill is signing an extension. What better deal can they get for DWill with those circumstances?

Maybe Justin Harper steps up with 60% of Rhino's production. Maybe they fill the hole at PF with another trade. Maybe it works and both resign in the summer. Maybe it doesn't, they both leave and the Magic are playing for the best seat in Secaucus. Even still, I get more excited thinking about lottery balls than a Bynum injury status update.

Lets start a Deron Williams to Orlando campaign!

I'm trying to catalog all of the Magic's misadventures under his tenure. Feel free to correct any mistakes or omissions.

• Drafting Vasquez over Granger & David Lee. For a team with holes everywhere, passing on a stud like Granger was unforgivable. Especially since he's a deadly 3-point shooter and big enough to play 4. Could have bypassed the entire Lewis-Arenas debacle with this move.
• Rashard Lewis for 100+ mil. Ultimately, it bit the team in the a$$, as we all knew it would, but it was a fun ride for a couple of years. What irks me, is that no one else was offering anywhere near what Otis paid. And he gave lewis the extra year a via sign and trade with the (then) sonics, in which the sonics got a ~9 mil trade exception. Presti then used the TE to get Kurt Thomas and two first rounds picks from Phoenix. He then flipped Thomas for two expiring contracts and another first round pick from the Spurs. Total haul: 3 first round picks, one of which became Serge Ibaka. Thats how you do it, create a rotation stalwart/possible all-star from nothing (or, in this case, the stupidity of Otis Smith).
  
• Trading a first round pick (which became Rodney Stuckey) to run the Darko experiment. Not a bad move at the time--trading a mid first rounder for a big with a lot of talent--but its clear it was an unmitigated disaster, especially when Stuckey blew up against the Magic in the first round of the playoffs as a rookie.
• Trading for Rafer Alston instead of Kyle Lowry. To be fair, they did ride him to the nba finals and lowry was never much of a shooter. But he was then, and is certainly now, the better player. Since Hedo ran most of the offense anyway, all lowry needed to do was bring the ball upcourt and not turn it over. Also, skip shot awfully during his 29 game stint.
• Trading Gortat and VC for a one year rental on Jason Richardson & Turk's onerous contract. Lost a prime trade asset *and* got a horrible contract in return.
  
• The Duhon signing. This is a guy who was cited for public urination and spurned the magic a few years earlier when he signed with NY instead. Now he's imploding offensive possessions for the Magic.
  
• The Q-Rich signing. Nice guy, plays hard but he's also carrying a spare tire around his waist and was 3 years past being effective when Otis signed him.
• Drafting Daniel Orton. He may not be a bust yet, but for a team in a win-now mode, it didnt make any sense to draft a major project center, when all you need is a stopgap for 10-12 mins a night. There is no scenario in which this move made sense for the Magic. Assuming he turns out to be a talented player, he's never going to develop that talent in Orlando, so you'll lose him in restricted FA when someone gives him crazy money. If he takes a while to develop, you've lost the immediate productivity you could have gotten from a 3-4 yr college player like Landry Fields (although the rest of the draft board below Orton was horrible). If he's a bust, well, thats self-explanatory. You can always try to roll over the pick to another year.
  
• Arenas! Bad knees, 100+ mil, threatened to shoot someone, twitter feed, black hole on offense, terribly inefficient even when he was good
• Trading Bass for Big Baby. No explanation needed.
  
• Resigning Richardson. No explanation needed.
  
• Waiting to move Dwight. If he says he's only interested in 3 teams, and those are the only ones willing to make serious bids, the offers are unlikely to improve before march. I forsee the Magic moving him in disgrace in late february for a much smaller haul than the 5 first rounders + Lopez + Hedo amnesty they passed on.
• Trading Trevor Ariza for Mo Evans and Brian Cook. Where to begin. After somehow wrangling Ariza in the Steve Francis trade, Otis goes ahead and moves him for a 3-point shooting big man (except he never shot well in Orlando, his defense was horrendous, and he perpetually looked like he'd been picked from a lineup at the local Y to meet the minimum dressed players requirement). Then there was Mo Evans, a serviceable 2 guard, except thats exactly what ariza was, except he was younger, more athletic and capable of guarding multiple positions. Of course, all this blew up spectacularly when Ariza torched the magic in the finals, in a series where two games were lost in overtime no less.
• Forgot to add: trading Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejao to cleveland for an aging Tony Battie. Great great locker room presence for a young dwight, but how on earth do you trade two young bigs for an old one? Battie also missed an entire year with a shoulder injury and was never the offensive player gooden was, nor the defensive player varejao became. Update: Weisbrod was calling the shots on this one.
• And lastly, how could I forget (seriously, I forgot in the original version of this post): The Stevie Franchise pu-pu platter. Though this was many years ago, I remember the Suns dangling a young Amare and picks and Weisbrod and company passing because they also wanted Joe Johnson, or something. So Weisbrod goes after Franchise because (and this is true), he saw Franchise cold-cock Amare when STAT dunked on Yao Ming and then started scowling at him. In that game franchise got ejected for the punch, the suns won in overtime and Amare tore up the stat sheet. And what weisbrod took away is 'I really need a hockey enforcer on my team.'
  

The last two were under weisbrod's tenure, but I know Otis figured prominently in the decision making as part of the Magic's 'brain trust'

Something that generally bothers me about Otis' deals is his inability to get a team option on the final year of a contract. Instead, he always makes it a player option, and even for mid-tier players like bass.

One of the infinite transgressions that this team has levied against me, is a perpetual inability to develop their young talent.  Lets add JJ to that ignominious list and move on.  JJ has no future in Orlando.  He knows it.  The local media know it.  The fans know it.  And yet, Otis refuses to acknowledge it.  Nonetheless, whenever it is that reality hits Otis like a freight train and he comes to his senses, looks at his business card and gets down to doing what hes paid to, lets hope he moves JJ for one of Philly's excess bigs.

The Sixers were one of the worst outside shooting teams in the league and desperately need to add a three point bomber to relieve the pressure on Brand.  And we need more bodies inside, since theres no guarantee that Foyle will return for the vet's minimum and Rashard was playing out of position anyway.  Philly's got Reggie Evans, Jason Smith and Speights backing up Brand, and thats too many players backing up that position (unless they think Speights can also backup Dalembert at center).  If we can get Evans for JJ straight up (with other contracts thrown in for CBA purposes) that would represent fair market value.   The Sixers may not want a shooter at 2 since they already have Louis Williams (a combo guard) and Igoudala, plus last year's starter, Willie Greeen.  In that case, we should try to move Cook for Reggie Evans.  Cook is nominally a big, but hes only there to bomb away from three, a task he failed at monumentally last year, but maybe a change of scenery will do him some good.  If Otis can get Speights for JJ and Cook without giving up a first, that would be a major coup.

I don't know what value Bogans has, but he needs to be moved, if for no other reason than to give Lee a real shot at developing.

Chad Ford has Speights going to us at 21 in his latest mock draft (released today).  Halleluja!  I don't know if this is because Speights is falling, or because other players are rising to overtake him, but I would be hella-excited if we take any one of the big men in the 20-30 range over Lee or any of the other swingmen available that low.

Besides Speights, Ibaka looks like a stud down the road and looks like he'll  available at 21.  He looks like Dwight, and plays like Dwight, but has range out to 18--so he could play with Dwight at the 4.

I hope Otis doesnt pick Lee or any other wing (unless its Rush), just because we have a need.  Or even worse, pick a guard becaue Keyon might be bolting for free agency.  Although his recent words about the issue do not sound promising.  Backup points arent hard to find in FA.  Heck, we might even resign Carlos at 2-3 mil a year in the worst case scenario.  For whatever reason though, this draft has a lot of promising bigs--Speights, Hickson, Ibaka and even Ajinca and Jawai available at 20 and beyond.

I really don't get all the adulation bestowed on him.  He passed on Granger and Brewer for Vasquez and Redick.  And he compounded the Granger mistake by foolishly giving Rashard 116 mil.  Everyone knows that the nature of NBA contracts places a premium on drafting above all else--you can occasionally pick up a disgruntled franchise player, and a few key rotation players through FA, but, by and large, your core comes from the draft.  So imagine if we were starting Dwight, Granger, Hedo, Brewer and Jameer--with a lot more cap space as well.

Jameer was a nice pick up late in the 04 draft, but Dwight was, from all accounts of his workout, a no-brainer.  So really, Otis' biggest (read: only) draft accomplishment is being part of the group that traded for Jameer in 04.

Seriously, was I the only one screaming obscenities at the TV when Stern announced the Vasquez and Redick picks?

I'm not categorically denouncing Otis here.  He's not the worst gm in the league, but he's not in the same conversation as Buford/Popovich, West (in his Laker days) or Morey in Houston.  Even newcomers like Sam Presti in Seattle managed to turn a Rashard Lewis trade exception into 3 first rounders.  And the most reviled GM of the last few years not named Isaiah--that would be Mitch Kupchak--redeemed himself with his smart drafting, getting guys like Bynum, Turiaf and Farmar.  Though he missed on the Butler for Kwame trade, he turned Kwame into Gasol, which more than makes up for it.

Perhaps we should start looking at Otis more critically, instead of lavishing him with the sort of blind praise the rest of the Central Florida media does.  After all, when you mortgage the franchise's financial flexibility for the next half-decade for a guy who turns out to be the third--and on some nights fourth--best player on your team, you should not be getting a free pass.

Portland:  Are looking for a veteran point and have too many young players to benefit much from the 13th pick.  Rudy Fernandez is, supposedly, the next Ginobili.  If he's even half as good, Fernandez, the 13th (for Westbrook) and their top 2nd round pick for Jameer would be awesome.  We would probably have to add something to appease Portland, like a pick.  Not to mention taking a likely crappy contract in return to make the salaries match.

Indiana:  Need help everywhere except the 3 (they have that Granger guy we passed on).  We may be able to swipe their pick and Dunleavy for Hedo--Dunleavy plays like Turk anyway, and is 2 years younger.  With his breakout season last year, he may well continue improving.  It appears that Love is going much higher in the lottery, so he's probably out of the question at Indiana's position.  But someone is likely going to fall between Gordon and  Westbrook, and either would be great.  Even Arthur wouldnt be a reach at their position.

Phoenix:  Hope against hope against hope that they fall in love with Redick and take him straight up for the 15th (Rush).  Can we get Redick on the next flight to Phoenix for private workouts at the Suns facility.  Or we could just setup a backyard hoop in their office parking lot and have him shoot 25 footers in front of Kerr's office.

New York:  in Seven Seconds or Less, D'Antoni talks about his love for Hedo.  If only Isaiah were still in charge, we could probably get 3 first rounders and Lee for Turk.  Alas, with Donnie Walsh, we're likely not to get that much, but theres no doubt D'Antoni loves him, and even with the Dolan's deep pockets, I'm sure Walsh is looking to acquire cheaper players who are more in line with the run and gun philosophy (so Curry and Randolph are out).  Two firsts and Randolph for Turk and a sign and trade w/ Arroyo would work for both teams.  The Knick's draft position opens the door to pretty much everyone outside the big two in the draft.  And if you think Randolph isnt worth 13 mil for his black hole game, you're right.  But he's still young, can hit 18 footers if Dwight gets doubled, is the most offensively talented big in the eastern conference not named Garnett or Rasheed Wallace, and he would be awesome anchoring the second unit.  Walsh probably balks at paying 2 firsts and Randolph for Turk, but with D'Antoni on board, Randolph's value is severely depressed for NY and conversely, Turk's value skyrockets in their new offense.

NY actually presents a lot of intriguing trade possibilities because of the number of expiring contracts they possess, the Dolan's inclination to spend money and their future first rounders.  If Rashard starts lukewarm next year and looks he's breaking down, we may be able to move him to NY for Marbury's expiring deal.