SB Nation User Blog: WholeCamels

Phillies decline to offer arbitration to Burrell, Moyer.

WholeCamels — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 05:10:58 -0000

The Philadelphia Phillies have reportedly refused to offer salary arbitration to free agents Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer.

The first and most substantial effect of this decision is that, if Burrell and/or Moyer leave Philadelphia, the Phillies receive no compensatory draft picks from the signing team. However, the rule prohibiting the non-offering team from re-signing its free agents until May 1st of the following season has come off the books, so this isn't over yet.

The prospect of both Moyer and Burrell accepting salary arbitration must have spooked this team badly enough that they'd risk both walking away with NO compensation for the team. The economics of the game must be terrible right now... that, or this organization is going to coast for awhile on the goodwill it earned this year.

Phils sign RH reliever Mike Koplove

WholeCamels — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 17:31:40 -0000

Right-handed relief pitcher and 1995 Chestnut Hill Academy alum Mike Koplove has reportedly agreed to terms with the Phillies.

The sidearming middle reliever doesn't strike out a lot of batters, walks a few too many, but has historically done a good job keeping the ball in the park in a pretty good hitters' park in Arizona.

If this move is part and parcel of a bullpen construction strategy that involves moving fungible arms in and out of the mix and seeing what works, then great. But if it's predicated on some kind of feel-good hometown boy storyline construction, then boo. Jury's out. It appears to be a minor league deal so there's not that much money involved.

Probablistic Model of Range for Individual Pitchers

WholeCamels — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 15:43:10 -0000

Dave Pinto cooks up this little chart for us, in an attempt to measure the quality of the defense behind each individual starting pitcher this season.

Note that Adam Eaton had the second WORST quality of defense in MLB this year. There's obviously some wiggleroom in the notion that pitchers only control batted balls to a certain extent, but when you're giving up rockets as frequently as Eaton was this year, those do tend to fall in for hits more than grounders and pop-ups.

And Kyle Kendrick, despite being the beneficiary of some of the best defense in the league, still stunk it up.

Have a look, is good!

Beyond the Boxscore breaks down the Phillies

WholeCamels — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 16:59:04 -0000

Beyond the Boxscore breaks down the Phillies

I missed this from a couple weeks ago, but it's an interesting read nonetheless.

Howard for MVP? Pass.

WholeCamels — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 16:38:26 -0000

UPDATE: CONGRATULATIONS Albert Pujols, 2008 NL MVP. Ryan Howard finished second, and Brad Lidge finished 8th overall, with two first-place votes. Details here.

On Monday at 2 PM Eastern Time, the results of the 2008 National League MVP balloting will be released. If you believe what you've been reading in the papers, it's more or less a two man race, with Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols versus Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard (with the occasional mention of Astros first baseman Lance Berkman thrown in). I'm not here to stump for or defend Ryan Howard as an MVP candidate -- I'm here to hang him out to dry.

In 2006, we had Howard vs. Pujols Part 1, with Howard winning the award. By lots of measures, Pujols had the better season, and his team made the playoffs (eventually winning the World Series). Howard, though, hit 58 home runs, and nearly single handedly put his team in the playoffs. Howard was a defensible choice, and despite Pujols getting sore about it, the Cardinals and their fans were more than happy to content themselves with a fresh, shiny World Series trophy.

We should be happy with the same thing. Ryan Howard is not a legitimate MVP candidate, and it's not even close.

Pujols is a victim of his own amazing consistency. His CAREER OPS+ is 170. His OPS+ in 2008 was a career-high 190. His defense at first base is stellar. He performs at an elite level in every single aspect of the game with the possible exception of baserunning. He doesn't shock and amaze anyone because he's always so damned good, that you just get used to it.

Howard outpaced Pujols in two categories -- Home runs and RBI. His RBI total was largely a function of the remarkable hitters in front of him. His OPS+ in 2008 was 124. To put that in perspective, Jayson Werth's OPS+ was 121, and Pat Burrell's was 125. Couple that with truly bad defense at first base, and you do not have an MVP -- you have a sweet dispositioned Dave Kingman in one of his better seasons.

None of this is to say that I don't like Ryan Howard as a player. When he's in a groove he's as good as anyone in the league. His September this year was mind-bogglingly remarkable. But over the course of the season, if you can make solid arguments for four players on your own team being more valuable than you (Utley, Burrell, Hamels, and Lidge), you should not be in the mix for league MVP.

Utley claims third straight Silver Slugger Award

WholeCamels — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:37:19 -0000

No link yet, but Chase Utley has been named the 2008 National League Silver Slugger award winner at second base. That's three straight seasons for Utley now.

Chase is rapidly vaulting up the list of all-time great second basemen. Certainly not the rarified air of Morgan or Hornsby, but he's getting close to the second tier, I'd say.

Lincecum Claims NL Cy Young; Lidge Places Fourth

WholeCamels — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 19:17:09 -0000

Giants righthander Tim Lincecum was named the 2008 National League Cy Young Award winner today, with Phillies closer Brad Lidge finishing fourth. Lidge received one second place vote, and seven third place votes.

World Series MVP Cole Hamels received zero votes this year, after receiving two third place votes in 2007, finishing sixth overall in the balloting.

Lefty reliever Eyre signs

WholeCamels — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 12:58:22 -0000

Lefty reliever and quotesmith Scott Eyre has re-signed with the Phillies. It's a one year deal worth $2 million.

Short contract, reasonable money, and a pitcher who still has quite a bit in the tank. Not a bad deal.

General offseason questions

WholeCamels — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 17:03:57 -0000

As we enter the first offseason in 28 years where the Phillies can boast a WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP (just love the sound of that...), it's time to look at how the team can IMPROVE next season.

1. Will the luster of a recent Championship resonate with free agents? This decade of parity has yet to produce a repeat World Championship, with the Red Sox being the only team to win twice, three years apart. So is that pull the same as it was in the past?

2. This Phillies team is pretty well set at all the key positions. They're as strong up the middle as any team in baseball, have a certified ace starting pitcher, and a closer. Glaring needs (if one can characterize them that way) are another starting pitcher (but who doesn't have this need?) and a left fielder to replace Burrell if/when he leaves.

It should be interesting. This team does not have to do a lot, and luck is a HUGE factor, but it'll be fun to see what new GM Amaro does this winter.

Chase Utley, World F***ing Champions (AUDIO NSFW)

WholeCamels — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 22:14:51 -0000

Chase Utley, World F***ing Champions

(AUDIO NSFW)