Context :  A mixed  5x5 16 team Dyansty, no salaries.   I have been offered Ednison Volquez for either of Paul Goldschmidt or Jurickson Profar.

I think that Volquez by this time next year will start to regain his pre-TJ form.  The health is there in the arm as measured by his velo and movement.  The Change up is still a top 5 "swing and miss" pitch.   The control and command are the last to come back and with a pitcher like Volquez this will take a bit more time.  I have an excellent farm and afford to lose either Profar or Goldy.

Putting aside positional need please post your opinions and vote on the trades.  Was only able to post one poll so you comment on Profar seperately.

Mixed 16 team 5x5 Dynasty League.  No salaries keep 4-ever.

Been offered Brett Lawrie & Jon Lester for Adrian Gonzalez and Manuel Banuelos

A-Gonzo is one of the 5 best hitters in the league in the Sox lineup and in the post-Juice era is a rare 300-30-100 lock for several years.  Lester, a bit younger and an ace, but arms can turn ailing at anytime and then never be quite the same.

Lawrie is probably the 3rd best bat in the minors (behind Harper and Trout).  Has some inflation in his numbers playing Vegas.

Banuelos is probably a top 20 prospect.

Putting need aside which side of this deal do you like and why?

Thanks

MILB Game Updates  5/14-5/15 Weekend Edition

Didn't see one of these started for Saturday's games, so figured a combined one for the weekend might work.  Please distinguish results between Sat or Sun

I'll get things rolling with the increasingly interesting Trevor Bauer,  UCLA , SP

6th straight complete game.   

1 Run , 8 hits,  13 K's, 140 pitches.   Is he Lincecum-esque with respect to the "rubberness" of his once-every-7 days arm?    Don't know, I think he may start out quickly in his pro career in 2012.   He has outpitched Gerrit Cole by a significant margin over the past 2 months (and last year as well) and it is not like he lacks "stuff"

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I attached a poll but I am much more interested in any insight that anyone has into Bubba Starling's choice to either go to Nebraska on a football scholarship (to play QB) or likely garner ~ $6M+ in guaranteed bonus money in the upcoming baseball draft.   A BA mock has him going in the #5 slot to KC.

What do you think of him and what he will do?

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Dynasty (Mixed 16 team Points) League: 1 opening

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Which young pitcher do you think will have the better MLB career?

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Two 1990 born 6'3 Right handers have shot up a lot of lists this season so far.   Both have shown top end FB in the mid 90s with good secondary pitches and command.

Delgado just bumped up to AA.  Lamb should taste AA in a few weeks.   Delgado is with the Braves that have a better track record in developing prospects.

Which one do you like and why?

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Mixed 16 team Dynasty 5x5 no salaries.

I have a strong playoff caliber team and still a decent farm.

Proposed deal:

I give up: Brett Anderson, Granderson, Wandy Rodriquez

I get: Ricky Romero, Nelson Cruz, Randall Delgado.


I like Anderson's upside better long term, but Romero has increased his K rate and is generating a lot of GBs and is coming into his own.

Cruz over Granderson by a large margin right now, although it is clearly a "sell low" on Granderson.

Wandy is a spare part at this stage. He could clearly become a good pitcher again though. Delgado is a nice prospect.

What do you think and why?

Better MLB bat.  Which one do you like and why?

My aim is fantasy driven as I need to drop a prospect to back fill Utley's injury on my MLB roster in a 5x5 Dynasty (no salaries), however I figure that since both guys are prospects and both are Royals I'd get some opinions on this board and more grounds for a legit poll since both players hail from the same organization.

I lean slightly towards Hosmer, but its pretty darn close.

Okay this is a bit of a lightning rod.

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Who will have the better MLB career?

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Martin Perez for Tyler Matzek and Miguel Montero

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Mixed 16 team 5x5, H-2H Dynasty, no salaries. Keep players as long as you'd like.

Clay Buchholz for Jon Papelbon.

I'd be getting Paplebon on a win now team, with some current need at the closer position although I usually base my trade decisions on the long term merits so I'm not unduly influenced by my weakness at closer.

Buchholz is almost 4 years younger and certainly has more upside, although with each outing I become a bit more convinced that "he is what he is". Paps, despite last night's debacle, should still be a reliable source of saves for a few more years.  On the other hand, in a dynasty format Paplebon's value is exclusively linked to saves (a role that sometimes has a short shelf life), while Buchholz is an SP with skills

Anyway, very interested in thoughts on this exchange and comments as I know that there are a lot of Red Sox & Yankee fans who have views on these players.

Thank You.

Upcoming Supplemental Draft - Tiers are fine

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Who do you like better long term (next 4 years) and why?

Long term MLB success. At this stage which one would you rather have? Both have "elite" stuff. Buchholz has yet to totally harness it, but I do believe that it will come. He just needs reps and consistency. Feliz. Closer or starter? The makings of an elite closer and folks seem to lean that way long term by ~ 60/40. That said, Scheppers is coming and he also has the makings of a closer and I would think Nolan Ryan would first want to see what he has in Feliz as a starter. Thanks for all opinions/comments.

I realize that there are a lot of Rangers' fans who post on this site, so more interested in commentary than the poll results

Dynasty Trade value of Mike Stanton

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Who are the top teenage Latin American Prospects?

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Rick Porcello  vs.  Brian Matusz and Porcello vs Martin Perez (who do you like?)

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Adeiny Hechevarria - What do you all think?

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The following deal has been challenged in a 5x5 Dynasty League (no salaries, keep players forever) that I play in.  Given that many of the players involved are prospects and young MLB talent I thought that this forum would be an objective one to solicit feedback and votes.  There is a clear email chain of correspondance that indicates that no collusion or funny business was involved in said trade.

Team A is a "win now" team.  Team B is a rebuilding team.

Team A  trades;  Jay Bruce, Chris Carter, Phil Hughes and JJ Hardy

Team B trades:   Miguel Cabrera, S. Drew, Zito and Pierre

Note that in this league veteran pitchers of Zito's stature are available on the WW from time to time. (Millwood, Doug Davis are on the WW at present)

I am interested in folks view on "fair value" for Miguel Cabrera in Dynasty League (assume basic 5x5, 16 Mixed Team, no salaries).

Along with Hanley Ramirez, Kemp, Pujols, he would generally rate right up there from an overall value standpoint.  Still young enough where his presumably awesome "career years" are ahead of him.

Anecdotally, many athletes that have suffered from addiction (booze, drugs) have counterintuitively not performed better post-rehab.  I don't want to play shrink here, but a lot of things change when one cuts out its addicted substance.  I remember even Bill James observing this in old Baseball Abstract.

Anyway, I am a "win now" team (won last year).  My team is not old.  Miggy is on a rebuilding team so I am sure that he is available.  Interested in views on "fair value".   I am thinking of Jay Bruce and Michael Stanton and I will use that as a poll question.  However, I am more interested in examples of player(s) that folks here would consider "fair value" for Cabrera in a deal.

THanks

It will be my selection in next week in my Dynasty League's (5x5 scoring) off-season supplemental draft.  It is a wide open pool that includes all players previously not rostered by Aug 15th last year (when rosters froze).  I have honed on 2 high upside arms without any pro experience.

Jacob Turner is a 6'5" power arm who many feel was the top upside prep pitcher in the past amateur draft.  His FB gets rave reviews.  His CB has good potential along with his Change Up.  He's with an organization that has done well in identifying and grooming power pitchers.

Anthony Ranaudo is a 6'7" junior at LSU, who as of now projects to be the #1 collegiate arm (with Taillon being the #1 prep arm) in this upcoming draft.  Recognize that a lot can change between now and draft day.

I know that there are some keen observers who follow the collegians, so I'd like to get your opinion and vote as to which of these talents will have the better MLB career and why.

Thanks

Okay, I'll attach a poll to get more data.  I'd like to get the informed opinions, comments on the MLB offensive (hitting and baserunning) careers of these 3 young elite OF prospects (all 25 or younger).

First,  Adam "Don't call me Pacman" Jones.  Born Aug-85.  Had a great 1st half in 2009 and then was slowed by injuries.  He projects as 280-25-100 player and may attain that level of prowess as soon as 2010, with the century mark in RBIs a function of the rest of the improving Baltimore offense.  Of note is that Jones raked big time in his last year of minor league ball with a 960 OPS.  

Second, Andrew McCutchen.   Born Oct-86.   Probably an even better athlete than Jones.  He seems to be the type that will produce better at the major league level than he did during his developing minor league seasons (if that makes sense).  His 2008 AAA campaign only produced an "okay"  770 OPS.  However, in 2009 he had 16 HR/32 SBs (combined) with most of those stats at the major league level.   He projects to be a 285 - 20/40  (HR/SB) player and may garner that stat line as soon as 2010.  I can see him hitting 300 on occasion as well.

Travis Snider.  Born Feb-88.  The youngest of the 3 and the least athletic.  By far the most power potential as he projects to grade at ~ 75 on the 20-80 scale.   He has had K issues and issues vs Lefties.  He K'd ~ 150 times in 2008 and 78 out of 241 2009 MLB AB's.   So there is some degree of Chris Davis risk here, although I think Snider will hit for a better average than Davis.    I'll hesitate on a stat line for Snider although I think that he can be a 35 to 40 HR guy.

Anyway please vote and more importantly share your ranking and comments on these 3 young players

I'll attach a poll to make this easy.   Given Porcello is younger than most prospects I figured that this site would offer a good perspective.

 The context is a Mixed 16 team, 5x5 Dynasty League, no salaries.

The trade is actually a larger deal (Javy Vazquez and Adam Jones for Rick Porcello and Aroldis Chapman) with other pieces but has boiled down to either Matt Garza or Rick Porcello.  I would prefer to part with Garza as I still think, despite his tepid K rate, that Porcello can still be a frontline starter, while Garza a solid  MLB #2 or #3 who could K  200 batters in his peak seasons.

Anyway, please vote on Garza or Porcello for Dynasty purposes.  A "win now" team but with good youth.

Thanks

Who do you like and why to have the better MLB career?

These 2 are two of the better prospect bats.  Both have had issues with high K rates.  Snider is closer to the Show.  Snider has less defensive value.   Stanton is the better athlete.  Stanton and Snider both have elite power potential.

The Marlins tend to more aggressively promote their prospects while the Blue Jays take a more gradual approach to development.

I'll link a poll to this.  Let the dialogue begin.

Dynasty Deal with lots of young talent - Stanton, Bruce, Wood, Jones, Kemp

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Okay, I've set up a poll to make this easy.   Assume a 5x5 16 team Mixed Dynasty League (no salaries).  Interested in this as much for folks perspective on some of the talent involved, in particular Jay Bruce and Logan Morrison.

I have already proposed this deal and will make it or not, regardless of the outcome of this poll but would like to stimulate any views opions on the talent involved.

Jay Bruce & Ryan Westmoreland

for

Edwin Jackson & Logan Morrison.

Bruce played 2009 as his age 22 season.  While his avg was tepid and contact rate low, he is due for some luck based increase in his BABAIP%   The power is real and he still has a chance to blossom, although I doubt he's a player that will hit above 280 on a regular basis.

Jackson looks like he'll be a steady #3SP for several years.  Still has the potential to take another step forward, although personally I think that he is "what you see is what you get".

Westmoreland is all tools and will rank high by places like BA that grade tools over performance and not so high by guys like Sickels who favor production.  Injury risk seems a bit of a red flag

Morrison.  Should be a solid 1B.  A better MLB player than a fantasy player given that he'll likely be a ~ 20 HR guy (without speed) and that production is pretty easy to replace in Mixed fantasy leagues.

Thanks

A hybrid comparison as Bruce is already in The Show.  Bruce is 2.5 years older, though still a very young player having played the 2009 season at age 22.  I see some similarities inasmuch as the risk factor impeding the stardom of both players is a high K rate and the reciprocal low Contact %.   Both have otherworldly bat speed and are good bets to be able to hit 40+ HRs in their peak MLB seasons.   Stanton has a slightly longer swing, although Stanton probably gets points for having a better work ethic (not that Bruce's is bad it just that Stanton's is world class).   Defensively they should both be average to slightly above average corner outfielders and base runners.  Thus, the seperation between the two will be based upon their bat.  

Bruce has already shown his strengths and weaknesses at the MLB level.  Stanton should still have 1.5 years of minor league development in front of him.  How do you factor this into player value?

Which hitter do you like better and why?

Okay.  These are 3 high ceiling amateur SPs.   Lotto tickets if you will.   Garret Cole looks like the top SP prospect in the 2011 draft, although a lot can go wrong and change between now and thin.  Aroldis has an otherworldly FB for a young lefty (Cubans who have played in international tournaments usually have a kosher age), although nothing elite after than.   Ynoa took the 2009 season off essentially, still should have the same ceiling that he had a year ago but I guess the elbow concerns lower his floor.

Which would you think has a better MLB career and why?

Okay, a lot of you are very familiar with all three of these young arms all of which reside on young Dynasty (5x5) team.  My team looks like it will make the playoffs now after this week and with Branyan hitting the DL and my DL slots maxed out already, I will have to drop a young pitcher from my roster to be able to field a legal, full starting lineup for the playoffs.

I'll post a poll to make this easier, but I am interested in your thought process as well.  Bailey has shown legit flashes of being a quality MLB SP this year, although he has been inconsistent (as are a lot of elite young arms -- Cahill, Price, Latos, etc).   I doubt that I would use Bailey in the playoffs (but one never knows) Perez and Moore have very high ceilings but are very young.

Which player would you cut and why?   Thanks much!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!