SBNation.com User Blog: WitMi

Dispelling the Myth of Drafting a Wing to "Win Now"

WitMi — Tue, 11 Jun 2013 13:35:33 -0000

So I went back ten years and analyzed the top 3 picks for the last 9 drafts and compiled the basic rookie data. I did not look into PER and advanced statistics. Those tools are only useful to help to discern between players with similar overall output. The point of this exercise was only to show what kind of production we could expect from Otto Porter and/ or Macklemore(sic)/Oladpio.

2004:

1. Dwight Howard C: 12PPG, 10RPG(Ridiculous for an 18 year old rookie), 1.7 BLK.
2. Emeka Okafor C: 15 PPG 10.9 RPG, 1.7 Blk
3. Ben Gordon SG: 15 PPG 2 AST, 2.6 RPG

2005
1. Andrew Bogut C: 9 PPG, 7 RPG, 1 BLK
2. Marvin Williams PF: 8 PPG, 5RPG, 0.3 BLK
3. Deron Williams PG: 10 PPG, 4.5 AST

2006
1. Andrea Bargnani C: 11.6 PPG, 4 RPG, .8 BLK
2. LaMarcus Aldridge PF: 9PPG 5 RPG, 1.2 BLK
3. Adam Morrison SG: 11.8 PPG, 2.1 AST, 2.9 RPG

2007
1. Greg Oden C: 9PPG, 7 RPG, 1.1 BLK
2. Kevin Durant SF: 20.3 PPG 4.4 RPG 2.4 AST
3. Al Horford C: 10.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1 BLK

2008
1. Derrick Rose PG: 16.3 PPG 6 AST 3.58 RPG
2. Michael Beasley PF: 13.9 PPG 5.4 RPG
3. O.J. Mayo SG: 18.5 PPG(Career High) 3.2 AST, 3.8 RPG

2009
1. Blake Griffin PF: 22.5 PPG 12.1 RPG, 3.8 AST
2. Hasheem Thabeet C: 3.1 PPG 3.6 RPG
3. James Harden SG: 9.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 AST

2010
1. John Wall PG: 16.4 PPG, 8.3 AST, 1.8 STL
2. Evan Turner SF: 7.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.0 AST
3. Derrick Favors PF: 6.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG

2011
1. Mr 4th Quarter PG: 18.5 PPG 5.4 AST
2. Derrick Williams PF: 8.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG
3. Enes Kanter C: 4.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG

2012
1. Anthony Davis PF: 13.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.8 BLK
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF: 9.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 AST
3. Bradley Beal SG: 13.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.4 AST

Isolating the wings we have production that looks like this:
Ben Gordon SG: 15 PPG 2 AST, 2.6 RPG
Adam Morrison SG: 11.8 PPG, 2.1 AST, 2.9 RPG
Kevin Durant SF: 20.3 PPG 4.4 RPG 2.4 AST
O.J. Mayo SG: 18.5 PPG(Career High) 3.2 AST, 3.8 RPG
James Harden SG: 9.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 AST
Evan Turner SF: 7.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.0 AST
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF: 9.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 AST
Bradley Beal SG: 13.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.4 AST

EDIT:
Wing averages with Durant and Mayo: 13.2 PPG, 2.18 AST, 3.77 RPG
Wing averages without Durant and Mayo: 11.13 PPG, 1.96 AST, 3.7 RPG

Big Averages: 10.46 PPG, 6.5 RPG

So as we can see, Kevin Durant aside(There is no KD in this draft), and excluding O.J. Mayo,(anomaly, posted his best year ever as a rookie) help does not come in the form of rookie wing players. In fact, rookie wings are downright awful their first year. The best year offered by any of these players was Ben Gordon at: 15 PPG 2 AST, 2.6 RPG. I don't think replacing Waiters and adding that statline propels us into the playoffs.

Otto Porter is not an elite prospect, he is not going to have the best rookie year in the last ten years for a wing. Drafting Otto Porter is not a "Win Now" move. In fact, in terms of immediate impact, Centers and Power Forwards are clearly the best option.

Conclusion: If you want to win now, draft Nerlens Noel. If you want to win down the line, draft Nerlens Noel. Nerlens will immediately impact our interior defense from the first day he steps on the court. His quickness and shot-blocking ability will add a dimension our roster does not have. He is the best choice for now, he is the best choice for later.

2004:

1. Dwight Howard C: 12PPG, 10RPG(Ridiculous for an 18 year old rookie), 1.7 BLK.
2. Emeka Okafor C: 15 PPG 10.9 RPG, 1.7 Blk
3. Ben Gordon SG: 15 PPG 2 AST, 2.6 RPG

2005
1. Andrew Bogut C: 9 PPG, 7 RPG, 1 BLK
2. Marvin Williams PF: 8 PPG, 5RPG, 0.3 BLK
3. Deron Williams PG: 10 PPG, 4.5 AST

2006
1. Andrea Bargnani C: 11.6 PPG, 4 RPG, .8 BLK
2. LaMarcus Aldridge PF: 9PPG 5 RPG, 1.2 BLK
3. Adam Morrison SG: 11.8 PPG, 2.1 AST, 2.9 RPG

2007
1. Greg Oden C: 9PPG, 7 RPG, 1.1 BLK
2. Kevin Durant SF: 20.3 PPG 4.4 RPG 2.4 AST
3. Al Horford C: 10.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1 BLK

2008
1. Derrick Rose PG: 16.3 PPG 6 AST 3.58 RPG
2. Michael Beasley PF: 13.9 PPG 5.4 RPG
3. O.J. Mayo SG: 18.5 PPG(Career High) 3.2 AST, 3.8 RPG

2009
1. Blake Griffin PF: 22.5 PPG 12.1 RPG, 3.8 AST
2. Hasheem Thabeet C: 3.1 PPG 3.6 RPG
3. James Harden SG: 9.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 AST

2010
1. John Wall PG: 16.4 PPG, 8.3 AST, 1.8 STL
2. Evan Turner SF: 7.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.0 AST
3. Derrick Favors PF: 6.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG

2011
1. Mr 4th Quarter PG: 18.5 PPG 5.4 AST
2. Derrick Williams PF: 8.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG
3. Enes Kanter C: 4.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG

2012
1. Anthony Davis PF: 13.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.8 BLK
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF: 9.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 AST
3. Bradley Beal SG: 13.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.4 AST

On Winning Now

WitMi — Thu, 23 May 2013 14:23:40 -0000

via fc09.deviantart.net

Hello FTS, I have seen the term “Win Now” thrown around far too much on this site for the last 2 days. This term is used incorrectly on almost every account. I will, as usual, be the shining light of knowledge in the shrouded darkness of ignorance that is the internet. Set the fork in your soup aside and we can grow as a community and learn about what that term means for a lottery team.

I believe the misuse of this term is due to the “Win Now” mentality expressed by the organization during the final years of the LeBron era. During LeBron’s last two seasons, the Cavs gave away every possible asset in order to try and secure that 1 or 2 last piece that would be needed to push them over the top. Subsequently, when LeBron left, the cupboards were completely bare. We traded draft picks, young players, and severely overpaid role players in a last ditch effort to secure a championship. “Win Now,” as it applied to that team, does not hold the same meaning for the current Cavaliers organization.

To fully understand this phenomenon, we need to understand what “Not Winning Now” means. A great illustration for this is the opening day roster for the Cavs this season. The following people were getting paid millions of dollars by the Cavaliers on short term contracts

Luke Harangody
Jon Leuer
Jeremy Pargo
Luke Walton
Daniel Gibson
Omri Casspi

These players existed as “roster filler” we needed warm bodies, but we did not want to pay any of them any money. None of these players were options as long-term role players.

Chris Grant assembled a roster that would lose a lot of games on purpose.

I repeat: ON PURPOSE. The roster was designed to allow our young players room to grow, while simultaneously losing as many games as possible to preserve our draft position. In the NBA, being middle of the road is a worst case scenario. You need to be a top playoff team or bust. Anything in between does not work.

via maxcdn.thedesigninspiration.com

A paradigm shift for the Cavilers trying to “win now” does not mean over paying role players, or trading away assets, it means future rosters will not be designed for the specific intent of losing games. No longer losing on purpose is “Winning Now” for lottery teams. We will sign better role players, use our cap space, and stop signing D league players. Given the talent on this team, this is enough to merit the 8 seed in the East.

What winning the lottery means for the future of the Cavaliers

WitMi — Wed, 22 May 2013 15:44:42 -0000

Gather round! Gather round!

via www.thegreatoutdoorstore.net

Everyone relax and take a seat around the fire. Old man Witmi is going to explain what the Cavs winning the lottery means for our beloved Cavaliers. It’s going to be a bumpy ride, at one point, Aviate and Vottomatic are going to try and kill me, but if we stick together we’ll get through this.

#1. The Cavs are going to select Nerlens Noel. They are not going to take Alex Len; they are not going to take Macklemore, or Otto Porter. I maintain this is the only pick they will seriously consider.

Anything else you see or hear will be nothing more than a smoke screen generated by Chris Grant.

At one point 2 years ago, some people were convinced we would take Derrick Williams, he was never seriously considered.

via thebigmanblog.files.wordpress.com

#2. The Cavs will not trade the pick for DeMarcus Cousins, or anyone else. The advantages of the rookie wage scale will trump the allure of any existing veteran. I think we should listen long and hard if we get offered Demarcus Cousins, but Demarcus is going to get paid serious money in about a year, the Cavs will opt to preserve their cap space. I do not know if this is the best idea, but I assure you, this will happen. Old man WitMi sees far and true.

#3.

Tristan Thompson just became expendable

If Nerlens is the defensive player we believe he will be, TT is not a good fit beside him. The Cavs should explore moving TT for a stretch 4, immediately. The Cavs will need a PF that can move out of the paint and still score or the lane will constantly be clogged for Kyrie and Dion. We all love, TT, I love TT, we should play him for another year to show improvement, then move him for a piece that better fits our future roster. I know everyone will hate this, but it’s the best course of action. Memphis’s defensive minded front court only works because both Gasol and Zbo have really solid offensive games. Gasol steps out to the free throw line and hits that set shot an incredibly high % of the time. ZBO is an incredible low-block player. Tristan is none of these. If TT is smart, and I like to think that he is, he is currently shooting 1,000 jumpers a day trying to develop a midrange shot. His spot on this roster depends on it.

#4. The Cavs are now a serious contender for the Lebron James sweepstakes in a year. Until last night, I never seriously entertained Lebron returning. Not once, not seriously at least. Now, with 2 #1 picks at opposite ends of the court, this Cavs team is now a very attractive option for Lebron, as he would fit the existing roster perfectly. With one existing elite option at PG, 1 potentially elite option at center, and an above average SG, the Cavs have the best young roster in the NBA.(Yeah I said it) I thought Nerlens was the Cavs only shot at possibly attracting him back here, I now believe this is possible. I am not saying likely, but it IS possible.

#5. The Cavs will resign Ellington, then trade for a player, or spend at least 8 million in free agency this summer. I can’t predict who, but we will make significant additions to the back end of our roster. We will now start to pay role players who can legitimately contribute off of our bench. There is a lot of value on the cheap available, and the Cavs will begin to make their surge into the post-season.

#6. Nerlens will look awful for the first two months he plays. I mean really awful, he will not know where to stand or what to do, and he will get bullied by bigger players. Analytics will post 3 times a day about how we should have taken Otto Porter, who will win rookie of the year with the Wizards. The last month of the season and into the playoffs, Nerlens will shine as a weak side defender. Nerlens ability to defend the rim is absolutely incredible; I don’t understand why everyone is losing sight of this.

He will be able to block shots right away in the NBA.

This portion of his game will not take years to develop; he will alter shots immediately in the lane. As he matures over the next few years, the Cavs guards will simply need to funnel opposing guards towards him, the effect this will have on our defense cannot be stated enough. When Mike Brown gets his hands on this kid, he is going to turn him into a perennial all-NBA defender. He is THAT good defensively. Offensively he is athletic enough to eventually physically dominate matchups. He will be good on the pick and roll and will dunk a lot.

#7 As a side note, reports out of Kentucky is that Nerlens is a really good human being. There are dozens of stories of him working with sick kids and taking time to help charities. College kids don’t have to do this, are not expected to do this, and they rarely do. He comes from a well-grounded hard-working immigrant family from Haiti. You don’t hear stories about Nerlens having character issues; Chris Grant values these types of players.

via thegoodinsports.com

Kyrie Irving, and the state of the Cavaliers moving forward

WitMi — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 13:28:21 -0000

I skipped watching the game vs. the Heat last night but I checked ESPN and saw that we did it! The Cavs SOMEHOW managed to pull out a loss vs. a team missing 40 million dollars of annual salary. WHEW! That was close! We almost won! Satisfied I changed the channel and paid it no more attention.

This loss was important you see, the Cavs are tied for the third most Ping-Pong balls entered into the lottery.

A win greatly jeopardizes our chances of drafting Otto Porter or Nerlens Noel. I really want Nerlens Noel

This morning I wake up and read the following from Ohio.com:

But Irving’s peculiar behavior after the Cavaliers game quickly became just as interesting as another loss in a season filled with them. While the rest of the players lined up to hand selected fans their jerseys and shoes as part of Fan Appreciation Night, Irving immediately sprinted off the court at the buzzer and into the locker room. Irving’s quick exit left a staff member to scramble back to the locker room and gather a jersey and pair of Irving’s shoes to be handed out by someone else.

Kyrie was asked if he was injured in the locker room to which he replied:

That’s what I have? Oh, when was someone going to tell me that?" Irving said. "I’m hurt again? Damn. How long am I going to be out, 4 to 6 weeks?" Asked when he was injured, Irving said he was fine. "They said I have a bruised heel, but I’m fine," he said. "I felt it in the first half. Felt something in my heel, but I’m OK.

This is essentially the equivalent of Kyrie throwing the gauntlet down with management. The time for tanking is over, Kyrie has had all he can stands, and he can’t stands no more. These statements confirm what we have long suspected; the Cavs have been losing games on purpose all season in order to maintain draft position.

While in the long-term this is a solid strategy, the Cavs really do need a long-term solution at SF and C. This draft happens to have both a quality SF, and a quality C available in the top 4 picks. It’s only logical to try and acquire one of those picks.

The tanking has been evident across multiple platforms.

Management literally gave Coach Scott a bench of D-leaguers and Luke Walton to start the year. It was beyond horrible; spending as little as 8 million dollars in 2-year contracts in the off-season would have substantially upgraded the team. I don’t know if being so far below the cap was some deal management worked out with the players "Deal with this for another season and you’ll all make some extra $ as the cap money is distributed evenly."(Pure and complete speculation I have no evidence or any meaningful information to back this up, please don’t sue me Dan Gilbert) But this was the state of the Cavs entering the season.

The tanking was evident from the coaching, Coach Scott’s refusal to use timeouts, the awful rotations, the hockey subs, I could go on and on and on.

I reiterate it makes sense to tank; the Cavs have a young team. Giving our young players lots of minutes and letting them grow on their own while maintaining our draft stock is a good idea, it allows us to progress while building for the future.

Then the trade happened. The Cavs moved garbage PF for three players and a first round draft pick and something interesting happened. We started to win. The Cavs finished the month of February over .500. All of a sudden Kyrie gets hurt, and stays hurt for a very long time with a shoulder injury that should have only kept him out for a few days, Dion Waiters for some reason opts to have his knee scoped mid-season. This is what I believe sparked his comments last night. Dwight Howard has played almost every game this season with a torn Labrum.

So, Kyrie just told us that our window just officially opened. The patient plan now goes out the window. For all the talk of the Cavs not catering to Kyrie Irving like we catered to LeBron James, I feel we have swung too far to the opposite end of the spectrum. It’s time for the Cavs to start catering to Kyrie, and give him some pieces around him. This can’t happen again, the time to start winning is now. It is obvious that our superstar will no longer stand for losing on purpose

The Cavs desperately need quality veterans to help guide and develop their young talent. I am planning a fan post to discuss the Cavs options for the future, but do not want to release it until after we know our lottery position. Obviously Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson look far less attractive if we can draft Nerlens. No matter who it is, it's time to use that cap space and some of Dan Gilbert's billions. We need 3-4 free agents who are not making the league minimum.

This loss was important you see, the Cavs are tied for the third most Ping-Pong balls entered into the lottery.

A win greatly jeopardizes our chances of drafting Otto Porter or Nerlens Noel. I really want Nerlens Noel

This morning I wake up and read the following from Ohio.com:

But Irving’s peculiar behavior after the Cavaliers game quickly became just as interesting as another loss in a season filled with them. While the rest of the players lined up to hand selected fans their jerseys and shoes as part of Fan Appreciation Night, Irving immediately sprinted off the court at the buzzer and into the locker room. Irving’s quick exit left a staff member to scramble back to the locker room and gather a jersey and pair of Irving’s shoes to be handed out by someone else.

Kyrie was asked if he was injured in the locker room to which he replied:

That’s what I have? Oh, when was someone going to tell me that?" Irving said. "I’m hurt again? Damn. How long am I going to be out, 4 to 6 weeks?" Asked when he was injured, Irving said he was fine. "They said I have a bruised heel, but I’m fine," he said. "I felt it in the first half. Felt something in my heel, but I’m OK.

The tanking has been evident across multiple platforms.

The tanking was evident from the coaching, Coach Scott’s refusal to use timeouts, the awful rotations, the hockey subs, I could go on and on and on.

Why you should join #TeamShabazz

WitMi — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 20:05:49 -0000

via rantsports.media.s3.amazonaws.com

Shabazz Muhammad was a considered by many publications the top recruiting prospect in the country going into this year’s NCAA season.

Rivals: National Position 1

by Jerry Meyer - 03/01/2012 A relentless competitor, Muhammad is a physical wing scorer who loves to attack the basket. He also has a reliable jump shot and a terrific turn around jumper in the post. Also, a danger on the glass, Muhammad is a solid ball handler and passer, but is not known for his ability to create for teammates. on the other side of the ball, he is an above average defender. Jerry Meyer serves as a national scout and recruiting analyst for Rivals.com. He played at Lipscomb University where he became college basketball's all-time career assist leader. Meyer earned Mr. Basketball honors in the state of Tennessee as a high school junior and senior. He has served as an assistant coach at Vanderbilt and also co-authored the book, "Basketball Skills and Drills."

ESPN and MaxPreps also had Shabazz rated as the #2 recruit in the country.

Shabazz had problems with NCAA violations of which he was later cleared to play. While he did not miss games due to the infractions, he did miss valuable practice time at the beginning of the year. Not being able to join the team lead Shabazz to a less than stellar beginning to the season.

I am linking some scouting videos of Shabazz for your consideration. I have watched many of these and I have reached a few conclusions which I will list below. I ask you to watch them yourselves, form an opinion, then see if it agrees or disagrees with mine (Also, UCLA cheerleaders, they show them a lot)

Game against Washington
Oregan State
Arizona

Shooting: When Shabazz has time to set his feet (Which is rare, he is double-teamed often) Shabazz shoots a very high %. He really excels as a spot-up shooter when he has space and can square-up. He has a good shooting form and has range out to the 3 point line.

Shabazz has trouble trying to hit leaners in the lane. This is a difficult shot that he is forced into as a function of having the ball with the clock winding down. I think he would be better served to jump stop then pump fake to try and draw a foul or separation.

Off-ball Skills: UCLA runs Shabazz all over the floor. He is adept at using screens and knows how to gain separation from his man. This is a skill completely missing on the current Cavalier’s roster. While Shabazz is forced to throw up sub-optimal shots, he hits a very high % of open(good) attempts. I maintain that Shabazz will be a better shooter in the space oriented pro game than Otto Porter will be. He really fills it up when open.

Dribbling: As I have watched scouting videos over the season, Shabazz has been learning a jab step and is working on using his right hand more. Being left handed, Shabazz is very quick and powerful going to his left, but can sometimes struggle going to his right, and crossing over from the right side. His footwork is not great, but being 18 years old that is forgivable. I do not believe Shabazz will be a ball dominant player in the NBA, at least not for 4-5 years until he improves his dribbling and footwork. He is coordinated, but can at times, be obviously forcing the issue and trying to do too much. There is not a lot of offensive talent on UCLA, and he knows it. He often has to be the man on a nightly basis for his team to be competitive.

Shabazz REALLY needs to work on finishing around the rim, he is very explosive but can find himself elevated and unable to finish the shots. He tries a finger rolls where he should dunk, and tries to dunk where he should lay it in. He consistently beats his man, but is out of control at the rim. I feel at 6"6 225 he should finish better at the hoop. (Hi Dion)

Post: This is an area where Shabazz absolutely excels over virtually any other SG or SF in the country. Shabazz is very comfortable going into the post, flashing an array of post moves. He can hit a right-shoulder turnaround, he has a little half-hook like Tristan uses, and he knows how to use pump fakes to create space. Shabazz may not be 6"8, but he has an incredible wing span which allows him to shoot over taller players. Once he gets into the pros and improves his footwork, he will have a lot of versatility in an offense. Shabazz will also pass out of the post when double-teamed, and find people cutting to the basket. A High % of his assists come from post passing. This is an incredibly rare skill for an 18 year old wing, and should not be understated. LeBron was in the league for 8 years before he started to develop a post-game.

Rebounding: Shabazz is a good rebounder for someone who plays away from the basket a lot. When he does get near the hoop, he boxes out well and displays good effort going for the ball. Shabazz has a very high motor. Shabazz has good "bounce" when going after rebounds on the offensive end. He gets off the floor quickly for put-backs. I see no reason he will not be able to rebound effectively in the NBA.

Shabazz leaks out a LOT on defense. Even after made baskets UCLA will make a long pass to him up the court so he can go at the defense before it is set. This causes Shabazz to be out of position for rebounds a lot on the defensive end. Shabazz is adept at using his body to keep his man away from the rim, and at the end of games, opposing players seem to give up on it and sit near the wing.

Defense: UCLA runs as close to a pro-style defense as can be found in the NCAA, This is one of the reasons their players enter the league as prepared as they do. Shabazz displays a lot of effort on defense, which is rare for a young superstar. He really fights through screens and uses his giant wingspan to bother shots and to stop dribble penetration. Shabazz has REALLY long arms which he uses to disrupt shots around the rim. He gets a lot of partial blocks that don’t send the ball back, but do deflect the shot. He also can force opposing players to change the angle on their shot as they approach the rim. It’s college, and no one can dribble or make layups, so I don’t know if this will translate.

Athleticism: To be honest, I have a lot of trouble judging this from game film. Shabazz has great metrics for vertical jump, but does not explode for "head at rim level" dunks. I think the combine will tell a lot about him as an athlete. Shabazz is fast, but does not appear hurried on the court. He has good lateral quickness at the college level, but it is difficult to discern from game film if that quickness is enough at the next level.

This mix tape shows he can clearly get off the floor and explode

Conclusion: I see no reason why Shabazz will not succeed at the next level in the space oriented game of the NBA. I don’t understand what scouts are so down on; his scoring metrics are off the charts for someone his age. He has a good motor, he displays effort, and he gets buckets. I really wish I could find a reliable shot chat for him to see where he shoots from to judge efficiency.

Quote about Shabazz which is very promising for the next level:

"Shabazz Muhammad credits his competitive temperament for pushing him to create high standards while at UCLA. "I've always had a killer instinct," Muhammad says, "and that's what separated me." Muhammad’s coaches and teammates laud his effort in practice and his drive to stay late at the gym. "He's a really fierce competitor, with everything we do, everywhere," said freshman teammate Kyle Anderson. Las Vegas Bishop Gorman coach Grant Rice raves about how Muhammad raised the intensity level of his teammates. "If they didn't go 100%, they were going to get an elbow to the face or dunked on," Rice says." Via Baxter Holmes/Los Angeles Times

I love that quality in players, I want a core guy that is Kobe/Michael crazy and pushes guys daily in practice.

via rantsports.media.s3.amazonaws.com

Shabazz Muhammad was a considered by many publications the top recruiting prospect in the country going into this year’s NCAA season.

Rivals: National Position 1

by Jerry Meyer - 03/01/2012 A relentless competitor, Muhammad is a physical wing scorer who loves to attack the basket. He also has a reliable jump shot and a terrific turn around jumper in the post. Also, a danger on the glass, Muhammad is a solid ball handler and passer, but is not known for his ability to create for teammates. on the other side of the ball, he is an above average defender. Jerry Meyer serves as a national scout and recruiting analyst for Rivals.com. He played at Lipscomb University where he became college basketball's all-time career assist leader. Meyer earned Mr. Basketball honors in the state of Tennessee as a high school junior and senior. He has served as an assistant coach at Vanderbilt and also co-authored the book, "Basketball Skills and Drills."

ESPN and MaxPreps also had Shabazz rated as the #2 recruit in the country.

Game against Washington
Oregan State
Arizona

This mix tape shows he can clearly get off the floor and explode

Quote about Shabazz which is very promising for the next level:

"Shabazz Muhammad credits his competitive temperament for pushing him to create high standards while at UCLA. "I've always had a killer instinct," Muhammad says, "and that's what separated me." Muhammad’s coaches and teammates laud his effort in practice and his drive to stay late at the gym. "He's a really fierce competitor, with everything we do, everywhere," said freshman teammate Kyle Anderson. Las Vegas Bishop Gorman coach Grant Rice raves about how Muhammad raised the intensity level of his teammates. "If they didn't go 100%, they were going to get an elbow to the face or dunked on," Rice says." Via Baxter Holmes/Los Angeles Times

I love that quality in players, I want a core guy that is Kobe/Michael crazy and pushes guys daily in practice.

Someone tell me why we keep Zeller over Speights

WitMi — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 13:09:20 -0000

Votto mentioned this idea in another post.

Aside from being 3 inches taller, exactly why would we want to let Speights go and keep Zeller? I see no basketball reason why this is a good idea. Zeller has disappointed to say the least this season. I understand he’s a rookie, but he’s a very OLD rookie who has shown little to no polish on his game.

He can’t hit the 15 footer we want. He has to be the worst rebounding 7 footer in the NBA. He can’t score ISO, he can’t defend well, and he doesn’t pass well out of the post. I understand he will improve but if you want to make a playoff push next year Zeller is not the one we need to keep in the lineup.

Speights is the stretch 4 or 5 we have been looking for, he can hit that jumper after setting a pick consistently. This is more or less what we want Zeller to eventually become one day. Mo can do this right now at 6"10. Is 3 inches really worth the 3-4 years it takes to turn Zeller into a player? Is this a cap thing?

Maybe I’m too low on Zeller, but I don’t see him making the same jump TT made from year 1-2. He is several years older than TT and far less athletic. If we see Zeller taking 2-3 years to improve, I say give Speights the three year extension he wants, and let Zeller learn in practice and/or while playing 15 minutes a game

Votto mentioned this idea in another post.

Why the cavs MUST obtain a solid defensive center

WitMi — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 16:08:18 -0000

A majority of the information in this article is based on the new defensive metric analysis presented at the Sloan conference this year:

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/The%20Dwight%20Effect%20A%20New%20Ensemble%20of%20Interior%20Defense%20Analytics%20for%20the%20NBA.pdf

So after reading this entire paper I was initially shocked to see that Andy is one of the worst interior defensive players in the NBA. Not far behind him for this title is his frontcourt mate, Tristan Thompson.

The first metric I will address is: B) Proximal FG%: The results summarize the FG% of opponents when each defender was within 5 feet. This study shows the field goal % of opponents when attempting a shot within 5 feet of said player.

In this study, Andy ranked DEAD LAST, and Tristan ranked 45th. Players shooting within 5 feet of Andy made 54.2% of their attempts. Players shooting within 5 feet of Tristan Thompson shot 50.6%. To create a basis for comparison

This goes against conventional wisdom of Andy and TT being great post defenders. What is becoming clear is that they are in fact great rebounders, but cannot alter shots of the players they defend, or any other player driving the lane. For a basis of comparison, Tyler Zeller allows only 46.9%.

Also, if I am reading this study correctly, Andy and Tristan are not particularly adept at rotating to defend shots, as both score very low in being within 3 feet of a shot. One interpretation of his is that they deny their opponent’s shots at all, but I think this is more due to missed rotations and an inability to close distance quickly to alter a shot.

Basically, I’m sorry Otto Porter fans, our front court is a dumpster fire on defense, and we need improvement there more than anywhere. TT is not nearly as valuable as we think he is defensively, he rebounds well, but cannot defend the paint.

Ultimately, this means we MUST move either Andy or TT. We cannot have two frontcourt players who rebound well but cannot defend. Anyone out there skeptical of giving TT up in a Kevin Love or DeMarcus Cousins trade, consider that Kevin Love is better than Andy, and only slightly worse than TT at altering opponents shots. DeMarcus Cousins is miles ahead of both of them.

A majority of the information in this article is based on the new defensive metric analysis presented at the Sloan conference this year:

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/The%20Dwight%20Effect%20A%20New%20Ensemble%20of%20Interior%20Defense%20Analytics%20for%20the%20NBA.pdf

Everyone must see this immediately.

WitMi — Wed, 20 Feb 2013 20:47:27 -0000

via assets.sbnation.com

Andrew Bynum's hair.
I was going to say "That is all" but I am forced to post at least 75 words in order to successfully make a fan post.
Now that Andrew Bynum is Two Face, the Cavs cannot offer him a contract this summer. Two Face and The Dark Knight cannot co-exist in the same city, let alone on the same basketball court. When he comes back I expect Kyrie to eviscerate him at the rim.

via assets.sbnation.com

Nerlens...Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

WitMi — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 20:04:44 -0000

In case you hadn’t heard, Nerlens Noel obliterated his knee last night. He may never play basketball again. If he does, he won’t be the same. I don’t want to link video or a picture because the injury was that ugly.

So where do the Cavs go from here? Nerlens was the only guy in the draft I was really interested in. I assumed Shabazz would go #1 overall, this meant in a draft class with few high-end talents, but a lot of depth, I assumed the Cavs would be able to either select, or trade up to select Noel.

I have no idea what we do now. I firmly believe the Cavs will not select a SF, and that the plan this year is to select a C, then sign a SF in free agency in 2014. We aren’t reserving cap space for Rudy Gay/Lebron James while drafting someone at his position one year earlier. I don’t really like Cody Zeller or Alex Len, at least not how I liked Noel. I don’t know anything about the foreign Rudy Golwhatever. Noel was the perfect player for the Cavs, and I believe the Cavs had the assets to acquire Noel, even if our pick fell out of the top 4.

So where do we go from here? The Cavs need an interior presence to be competitive. TT is not enough, Andy cannot be trusted to play a full season, and TZ is well, he’s TZ. This injury completely derails the tank for me.

Is the plan moving forward to go after Al Jefferson? Do we mortgage the farm to trade for Cousins? Talk me off the ledge

6 Reasons To Be Patient With The Cavaliers Rebuild

WitMi — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 16:14:18 -0000

I read almost every post on this site and it appears that many of you are pushing to expedite the rebuilding process. I think this line of thinking is flawed, and we need to be patient with our players, and our front office. I have written this article to explain why being patient during this process is absolutely critical.

Reason 1:

We are only in the second year of our rebuild. Everyone likes to say this is the third year of the plan, but it isn’t. The year after LeBron was not spent rebuilding, that was spent jettisoning bad contracts, and finally beginning to compile assets. We had no young players, and we had no high draft picks. The rebuild really did not start until we drafted Kyrie Irving. Expecting a team to rebuild for one season, and then contend is unreasonable.

Reason 2:

The Cavs are literally right on schedule for their plan. We are in the second year of the rebuild and we already have the right type of assets required to build a contender.

All-Star?: Check
No bad long-term contracts?: Check
Young promising front-court player?: Check
Young promising Back Court?: Check
Financial flexibility?: Check
Multiple draft picks?: Check

These are the components you rebuild with. We have ALL of them; our current problem is that they have not matured..
Reason 3:

With the current CBA rules, you only get one shot at free agency. One of the biggest complaints I see is that the Cavs did not fill out there bench in the offseason, essentially dooming us to a terrible record. I agree with that statement but I don’t believe it’s as bad as everyone makes it out to be. With the new harsher salary cap, you only get to blow your free agency load once. If you miss, that’s it, you’re done. Signing a bad free agent to a long-term contract is the worst possible mistake you can make with the new salary rules.

Look at the Nets, they are absolutely screwed and there is nothing they can do about it. They signed and traded for players who do not perform to the level of their contracts, and they’re done. They will never seriously contend because they do not have a roster that will ever bring home a championship.

Does that fate look familiar? It should, it was the same fate the LeBron era Cavs had, except LeBron was great enough vs. the Pistons to catapult us into the Finals so we could enjoy the experience of being blown out for 4 straight games. We need to avoid this fate at all costs. It is much better for Chris Grant to fail to pay a performing player than it is to overpay an underperforming player. We get ONE shot at this, we cannot miss. Maximum discretion is required.

Reason 4:

Our young players are not ready for a playoff push yet. I’ll use Dion as my prime example. I criticize Dion constantly on this site; he is by a wide margin our most frustrating player. The truth about Dion is that he just isn’t ready yet. He isn’t ready to consistently perform at a high level in the NBA as a starting guard. This is 100% fine, he isn’t supposed to be ready yet. Dion, Zeller, and TT are not even close to finished products yet. They need to get consistent minutes and get ALL of their flaws on display.

This may seem counter-intuitive but until you know what’s broken, you don’t know what to fix. Tyler needs to be stronger, and learn how to defend NBA big-men. Dion needs to learn how to play basketball at a high level. Right now, he has no idea what to do in an NBA offense or defensive system. He also needs to work on his jumper.

Reason 5:

We don’t really know what we have yet. We don’t know how Dion and Tyler will develop with a full off-season. Look at Tristan Thompson; he looked absolutely horrible last year on offense. This year he has developed two very reliable moves, and he has at least one HUGE dunk every single game on a put-back. The transformation is amazing. What will Dion look like next year? What will Tyler look like? The answer is, we have no idea.

.
Reason 6:

Without knowing how our young players will turn out, we don’t know which holes to fill in free agency. The light may never go on for Dion or Tyler, they may not improve much. We may also have another all-star and a starting center. Without having any idea how they will pan out, we don’t know if we have to pay another SG in free agency. You can’t be blindly groping in the dark with your cap space, you must know exactly what you need, and then take a calculated risk on a free agent or trade acquisition. We do not have enough information to take our shot yet.

Conclusion:

The good news is our players will get better every single year due to their age. The bad news is, we don’t know what we have, or what we need yet. I believe we need another full-season before it really becomes clear what major pieces we need to fill in through trades and free agency.

Reason 1:

Reason 2:

The Cavs are literally right on schedule for their plan. We are in the second year of the rebuild and we already have the right type of assets required to build a contender.

Reason 4:

Reason 5:

.
Reason 6:

Conclusion:

Some troubling statistics about Dion Waiters

WitMi — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 14:30:46 -0000

If I'm reading this right, and I like to think that I am, Dion Waiters has exactly ONE "and 1" basket all season. This is according to Synergy Sports Technology.

Dion also gets the ball while cutting 1.9% of the time. He receives the ball coming off of a screen 2.4% of the time.

Dion is the primary ball handler in the Pick & Roll 37.3% of the time and he runs ISO 19.1% of the time. Dion is a spot-up shooter 15.8% of the time.

So, our young rookie shooting guard who has a very difficult time finishing at the rim, is not aided by any play sets what so ever. He runs an ineffective PnR set, or he goes ISO one out of every 5 times he touches the ball. His PPP for his ISO sets is 0.7. His PPP when running the PnR is .64, which is somehow WORSE than his ISO that we all complain about.

What Dion does best is spot-up shooting where he averages 1.23 which is good for 23rd in the NBA. if we give these statistics any weight,(need to keep in mind I don't believe many if any of these statistics have converged yet) Dion needs to catch and shoot more, and drive to the basket less, which is completely counter-intuitive to me.

The most disturbing statistical trend I see is that Dion catches the ball while cutting literally about twice a month. This means he is standing around on offense almost every play if he does not have the ball in his hands. This statistic is not going to significantly change from 1%, there are enough samples to determine a range and it will not grow to over 5%. Dion is NEVER getting easy buckets in our offense.

While I understand some of this is growing pains, Coach Scott has to share a lot of the blame. I am really losing patience with him and if the Cavaliers do not significantly improve in the second half, I would really like to see a new coach on the bench next season.

Our complete lack of scheme on offense is inexcusable to me. Hero ball on half our possessions is inexcusable to me. Dion is young and struggles at times, but we never do anything in our offense to make it easier for him.

If I'm reading this right, and I like to think that I am, Dion Waiters has exactly ONE "and 1" basket all season. This is according to Synergy Sports Technology.

Dion also gets the ball while cutting 1.9% of the time. He receives the ball coming off of a screen 2.4% of the time.

Dion is the primary ball handler in the Pick & Roll 37.3% of the time and he runs ISO 19.1% of the time. Dion is a spot-up shooter 15.8% of the time.

So, our young rookie shooting guard who has a very difficult time finishing at the rim, is not aided by any play sets what so ever. He runs an ineffective PnR set, or he goes ISO one out of every 5 times he touches the ball. His PPP for his ISO sets is 0.7. His PPP when running the PnR is .64, which is somehow WORSE than his ISO that we all complain about.

What Dion does best is spot-up shooting where he averages 1.23 which is good for 23rd in the NBA. if we give these statistics any weight,(need to keep in mind I don't believe many if any of these statistics have converged yet) Dion needs to catch and shoot more, and drive to the basket less, which is completely counter-intuitive to me.

The most disturbing statistical trend I see is that Dion catches the ball while cutting literally about twice a month. This means he is standing around on offense almost every play if he does not have the ball in his hands. This statistic is not going to significantly change from 1%, there are enough samples to determine a range and it will not grow to over 5%. Dion is NEVER getting easy buckets in our offense.

While I understand some of this is growing pains, Coach Scott has to share a lot of the blame. I am really losing patience with him and if the Cavaliers do not significantly improve in the second half, I would really like to see a new coach on the bench next season.

Our complete lack of scheme on offense is inexcusable to me. Hero ball on half our possessions is inexcusable to me. Dion is young and struggles at times, but we never do anything in our offense to make it easier for him.

Anderson Varejao and The Stupidity of NBA Fans

WitMi — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 21:14:01 -0000

It looks like Andy may not make the Allstar team this year if votes are a primary consideration.

http://www.nba.com/lakers/releases/121213allstar_returns

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Frontcourt: LeBron James (Mia) 641,348; Carmelo Anthony (NYK) 573,112; Kevin Garnett (Bos) 218,246; Chris Bosh (Mia) 210,724; Tyson Chandler (NYK) 151,744; Paul Pierce (Bos) 114,735; Joakim Noah (Chi) 73,366; Josh Smith (Atl) 69,344; Andrew Bynum (Phi) 68,596; Amar’e Stoudemire (NYK) 64,266; Shane Battier (Mia) 59,419; Anderson Varejao (Cle) 57,336; Luol Deng (Chi) 48,450; Brook Lopez (BKN) 47,940; Jeff Green (Bos) 36,080.

Backcourt: Dwyane Wade (Mia) 430,925; Rajon Rondo (Bos) 382,613; Deron Williams (BKN) 211,426; Kyrie Irving (Cle) 155,989; Ray Allen (Mia) 130,016; Monta Ellis (Mil) 47,650; Raymond Felton (NYK) 37,974; Jason Terry (Bos) 36,147; Brandon Jennings (Mil) 35,610; Jrue Holiday (Phi) 35,193.

Andy is only trailing ANDREW BYNUM by 10,000 votes. It's completely rediculous.

Poll

Do you think Andy will get selected for the Allstar team?

Yes

28 votes

No

11 votes

Charles Barkley

32 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

The Problem With Tristan Thompson

WitMi — Mon, 10 Dec 2012 13:47:00 -0000

If anyone has followed any of my commentary on this site, you will know I am not the biggest Tristan Thompson supporter. While watching the games this weekend, I figured out exactly why.

1. While I have seen progress in Tristan’s game from last season, I have seen almost no progress on the offensive side of the floor. This is a serious problem for me due to point 2.

2. Defensive Power Forwards are not the most useful commodity in the NBA. The reason for this is that you need some kind of scoring out of your post players. Having a defensive PF means that you need an offensively gifted center. This is literally the most rare and sought-after player in the NBA. Scoring Centers are incredibly hard to find and you may see one enter the league every 5 years or so.

3. Having a PF that plays close to the basket clogs the lane. If your PF never commands a double-team and you don’t have a center that can consistently range out for a 15-20 footer. The lane is clogged for your scoring guards (Kyrie, Dion) Again, this is the problem with an undersized defensive PF. Currently, PF is the premier offensive position in the NBA, this allows the Center to protect the rim and be a primarily defensive player.

4. Many people point to Ben Wallace as to why this type of player can enjoy success. The problem with this statement is that Rasheed Wallace isn’t walking through the door. The Cavs are not going to find an elite player with both a post-game and range out to the 3 point line. This is the type of player that Tristan Thompson requires in the post. They are almost impossible to find.

5. Even if Tristan continues to improve on the defensive end of the court, it will never be enough to balance out the problems he causes the Cavaliers on offense. He can’t spread the floor, he cannot get his own shot, he is not a great passer, he does not set picks well, he cannot run the pick-and-roll (Watch him when he tries). Tristan is not athletic enough to power through defenders and dunk, he is not a great shot blocker, he has no touch, and he can’t shoot free-throws.

6. However, all of these flaws become masked when he becomes the first big off the bench. The Cavaliers need to really focus on finding a starting PF that can get his own shot. A PF who commands a double-team will open up the three point shot. If we can find one who can shoot, it allows him to drift out to 15 feet and make jumpers. This allows more room for Kyrie and Dion to penetrate and cause problems. Also, with Andy crashing the boards as hard as he does, we don’t really need a dominant rebounding PF to play next to him.

Looking Ahead to Free Agency

WitMi — Mon, 19 Nov 2012 14:51:10 -0000

The Cavs starters have played well enough to win games this season. Our bench has completely and utterly failed. If you take a long view of the season, this is okay. We have a shot at another impact player in the draft (Which has 4 good players then falls off of a cliff), and we have more available cap space than any other team. I took a brief look at the available free agents and who the Cavs may be able to target to help us improve to a borderline playoff team next season, then possibly a legitimate contender a year or 2 after that.

I ignored players like Dwight Howard, and Chris Paul, they are not coming here.

1. Andre Iguodala – I think the Cavs should throw the sun, the moon, and all the stars at Iggy this off-season. He is exactly what the Cavs needs from the SF position. He is an elite defender, he can slash, he can pass, and he will be worlds better playing with an elite PG like Kyrie Irving. He’s a good locker-room guy; he’s a good 3rd scoring option. I think Coach Scott can maximize his skill-set

2. Paul Millsap – A multi-talented PF who is active on both ends of the floor and can create his own shot on offense. Millsap also hits free-throws at a rate of 70% which allows him to stay on the floor in the 4th quarter. Signing Millsap allows us to move Tristan Thompson to a bench role where is he is better suited. Millsap has found himself displaced by Derrick Favors and is expected to leave at the end of the year.

3. Josh Smith – I don’t really think he’ll come here but I would be remiss to not list him.

4. Chris Kaman – Kaman is an active center who is still in his "Prime." While not an exciting free agents signing, Kaman is a quality NBA center with a variety of offensive skills. He would allow Varejao to move to his natural PF position, and would move TT to his natural position of first big man off the bench. (Sorry, no TT love here, he can’t play in crunch time until he can make free throws or score). Also, Kaman is another tall slow white guy, if we can sign a few more we’ll have an entire set!

5. JJ Redick – Again, not exciting but with Boobie Gibson unlikely to return unless he’s overpaid (a contending team will be far more attractive to a 3 PT bench specialist), we will need an affordable option that can come off the bench and shoot.

6. Jarrett Jack – Affordable backup PG option.

7. Tony Allen – Combo guard who can come off the bench and play NBA-level basketball.

-I did not list Andrew Bynum on purpose. I do not want to give max money to a head-case who cannot stay on the court. Argue this all you want but a max contract that plays every other season is the best way to torpedo the Cavs rebuilding efforts.

The Cavaliers have had a less than ideal start to the season but at least we have a few exciting players to watch. As bad as the start has been, there is legitimate reason for hope in Cleveland which is something we have not had since He Who Shall Not Be Named took his talents (and our playoff aspirations) with him to Miami.

The Cavs starters have played well enough to win games this season. Our bench has completely and utterly failed. If you take a long view of the season, this is okay. We have a shot at another impact player in the draft (Which has 4 good players then falls off of a cliff), and we have more available cap space than any other team. I took a brief look at the available free agents and who the Cavs may be able to target to help us improve to a borderline playoff team next season, then possibly a legitimate contender a year or 2 after that.

I ignored players like Dwight Howard, and Chris Paul, they are not coming here.

1. Andre Iguodala – I think the Cavs should throw the sun, the moon, and all the stars at Iggy this off-season. He is exactly what the Cavs needs from the SF position. He is an elite defender, he can slash, he can pass, and he will be worlds better playing with an elite PG like Kyrie Irving. He’s a good locker-room guy; he’s a good 3rd scoring option. I think Coach Scott can maximize his skill-set

2. Paul Millsap – A multi-talented PF who is active on both ends of the floor and can create his own shot on offense. Millsap also hits free-throws at a rate of 70% which allows him to stay on the floor in the 4th quarter. Signing Millsap allows us to move Tristan Thompson to a bench role where is he is better suited. Millsap has found himself displaced by Derrick Favors and is expected to leave at the end of the year.

3. Josh Smith – I don’t really think he’ll come here but I would be remiss to not list him.

4. Chris Kaman – Kaman is an active center who is still in his "Prime." While not an exciting free agents signing, Kaman is a quality NBA center with a variety of offensive skills. He would allow Varejao to move to his natural PF position, and would move TT to his natural position of first big man off the bench. (Sorry, no TT love here, he can’t play in crunch time until he can make free throws or score). Also, Kaman is another tall slow white guy, if we can sign a few more we’ll have an entire set!

5. JJ Redick – Again, not exciting but with Boobie Gibson unlikely to return unless he’s overpaid (a contending team will be far more attractive to a 3 PT bench specialist), we will need an affordable option that can come off the bench and shoot.

6. Jarrett Jack – Affordable backup PG option.

7. Tony Allen – Combo guard who can come off the bench and play NBA-level basketball.

-I did not list Andrew Bynum on purpose. I do not want to give max money to a head-case who cannot stay on the court. Argue this all you want but a max contract that plays every other season is the best way to torpedo the Cavs rebuilding efforts.