SB Nation User Blog: WittyUserName

Run Differential

WittyUserName — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 14:43:24 -0000

I've been following the standings on MLB.com and have been quite intrigued by the run differential for teams, and the subsequent expected WIN-LOSS records for those teams. Strangely enough, some of teams with amazing records shouldn't, statistically speaking, be having those kinds of years

Here's the breakdown of the top teams in reference to run differential and expected WIN-LOSS:

1. Cubs +193 85-49 (Actual Record: 84-50, -1)

2. Red Sox +122 78-55 (Actual Record: 77-56, -1)

3. White Sox +108 77-56 (Actual Record: 76-57, -1)

4. Phillies +88 76-58 (Actual Record: 73-61, -3)

5. Rays +80 75-57 (Actual Record: 81-51, +6)

6. Mets +73 74-60 (Actual Record: 74-60)

7. Brewers +72 74-59 (Actual Record: 77-56, +3)

8. Jays +66 74-59 (Actual Record: 68-65, -6)

9. Twins +65 73-61 (Actual Record: 75-59, +2)

10. Angels +57 72-61 (Actual Record: 81-52, +9)

11. Cardinals +55 72-62 (Actual Record: 74-60, +2)

Now, obviously having a winning expected record guarantees nothing in reality. However, for the most part the expected records are really close to teams actual records, the only primary exceptions are the Jays, Rays, and Angels

Last season the D-Backs defied logic by winning despite a poor expected record and poor run differential, so having the Angels and Rays win wouldn't be such a shock, and by all accounts, they'd be contenders even if they weren't outplaying their differential. But what does that say about the teams? Obviously it shows that they are winning close games and losing some blowouts, but is there anything else to be read into this?

Does anybody else find these numbers interesting? Based on this, the Red Sox should have a 1.5 game lead over the Rays and a 3 game lead over the Jays. And the Phillies would lead the Mets by 2, as opposed to them trailing by 1. The Angels are clearly winning a ton of close games, and there is clear evidence to that as K-Rod is chasing the single-season saves record

Do people think this is telling of how teams might fair down the stretch, or how they'll perform in October? I think it tells the story of just how dominating the Cubs have been, and how I don't think they need to cower in fear of any opponent. I think it will be interesting to see if these numbers take their toll down the stretch, particularly in regard to the Rays, as the Angels have all but secured themselves that division.

Cause for optimism

WittyUserName — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 14:44:19 -0000

I know that things aren't great for all things Cubs at the moment, but I think a lot of people are overlooking things. I felt it appropriate to add, yet another, thread regarding the topic of optimism with this team.

Back at the end of May, I said this about the Brewers (I'm paraphrasing):

"The Brewers have a great offense, but like the Astros, are far too one dimensional of a team to sustain any sort of prolonged winning percentage in order to keep pace. Teams like this certainly get hot and have the bats carry them for a time, remember how the Astros were 'a surprise contender' early on? I can see the Brewers getting hot and pulling really close around the All Star Break, but will likely fade come August."

Now, obviously the Brewers have tilted the scales a bit by adding Sabathia, and thereby giving them a much more dynamic team. It seems that the Brewers are trying to cheat the math a bit and avoid the eventual slump they'd hit by bolstering the rotation before that time comes. Their chances are good, but they are still a hit first, pitch second, team, and with, still, a shoddy bullpen, it won't necessarily be difficult for them to win, but it's hard to imagine them to keep on winning at the pace they've been winning at.

Are the Cubs in a slump right now? You bet. You know the good news? Apparently, the Cubs slumping are a .500 team! That is, without a doubt, PHENOMENAL! Since Soriano got hit in the hand, per Al's thread, the Cubs are 17-17. What do you hope for when a star player goes down if not 'Boy, I just hope that they can play .500 ball till he comes back'? And I know that stats can be deceiving, and that they've been worse lately. But looking at their last 10 games, guess what, they're 5-5.

This team, at it's worst, is still a .500 team.

Early on in the season, everything was coming up Cubs. Since Soriano went down, think of the things the team has had to endure:

Soriano out

Ramirez slumping, not once, but twice!

Lee leading MLB (I think) with 20 DPs

Fukdome being awful

Zambrano on the DL

Johnson on the DL

Eyre on the DL

Marmol imploding AND exploding

Howry being just bad

DeRosa in the OF with less than stellar defense

Wood being unavailable with a blister

The two little players that could, and the over-the-hill slugger being the only offensive threats in the lineup.

All that, and this team is STILL in first place by the same amount as they were when Soriano went down. Granted the Brewers have gained ground, but so what? We've been cold and they've been hot. I'm looking forward to August and, hopefully, a revitalized team.

I'm not going to say "Step away from the ledge", because part of me is there too. I could've sworn that Johnson was throwing 88 MPH because he certainly sent this offense back to 2006 for a night. But it's a slump, it happens.

The highs of the season wouldn't be so great if there were never any lows.

Do people think that we're good enough?

WittyUserName — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 21:17:16 -0000

As the roster stands right now (spots to be won in ST aside), do people think that the Cubs in 2008 will be legitimate World Series contenders?

Personally, I feel that they are in a slightly better boat than they were at the end of 2007. They've added depth to the pen and rotation. They've signed a legit RF and have been able to upgrade at C in house.

Could the current roster win the World Series? Sure, but I think a lot has to go right. There are a lot of 'ifs':

If Pie turns the corner
If Lilly doesn't regress
If Soto is as good as advertised
If Fukudome is as good as advertised
If Zambrano has a good year
If Hill has a good year
If Lieber is healthy
If Theriot gets better
If Cedeño turns the corner
If Soriano's leg problems don't come back

Personally, I think that Soto and Fukudome will be fine, and while I doubt Lilly will have a 2008 as good as 2007, I'm sure he'll be fine. But there are still some things that seem to be left up to fate.

I feel that our bullpen is great, our offense is fine, and our rotation is fine. And while I totally expect the 2008 Cubs to be good and make it to October, they don't seem, to me at least, to be a team that can dominate in the playoffs.

Do people feel differently? Do people think we need a new 2B whose name I won't mention since Al is sick of reading/hearing it. Do people think that we need a another top of the rotation Starting Pitcher?

I'm not meaning to start a debate about specific trades, although that would certainly be welcome. But simply how do people feel about the current roster and their chance at ending the streak in it's centennial year?

Poll

Is the current 2008 roster good enough?

Yes

26 votes

No

40 votes

Lou will get the pieces working together

43 votes

Trade the farm

15 votes

So long as I can drink at the games...

5 votes

129 votes | Poll has closed

Game of Shadows Movie

WittyUserName — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 23:19:21 -0000

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/29/bc.bbn.bondsmovie.ap/index.html

HBO Films is planning on producing a film based on the book 'Game of Shadows'. It is to be directed by Ron Shelton (of Bull Durham fame) and written by Shelton and his writing partner John Norville.

Writing is set to commence once the writer's strike comes to an end.

I think this is very interesting to say the least. It also seems interesting that a man who seems to covet baseball is going to be charged with handling one of it's biggest black-eyes.

Discuss.

EPat in CF, anyone think I'm nuts?

WittyUserName — Tue, 30 Oct 2007 23:33:07 -0000

My thoughts for 2008

In my opinion, the Cubs need to address the following needs for the 2008 season.

A Right Fielder (preferably a lefty who is a legit #5 hitter)
A #2 or #3 starter (another #4 wouldn't be so bad)
A Short Stop
A Center Fielder

I ranked these in order of importance.

If I could make a few realistic signings, I think my opening day roster would be:

Soriano LF (R)
E. Patterson CF (L)
Lee 1B (R)
Ramirez 3B (R)
Fukudome RF (L)
Soto C (R)
DeRosa 2B (R)
Cedeño SS (R)
Zambrano P (L)

Bench:
OF Jones (L)
OF Murton (R)
IF Theriot (R)
IF/OF Ward (L)
C Blanco (R)

Bullpen:
RHP Dempster
RHP Marmol
RHP Wood
RHP Howry
LHP Eyre
LHP Marshall
RHP Wuertz

Rotation:

Zambrano
Lilly
Kuroda
Hill
Marquis

I think that Fukudome and Kuroda really give us exactly what we need. I think we desperately need improved lineup balance. It got to the point in 07 that a diminished Floyd was batting cleanup just to avoid having 4 right handers in a row. Fukudome is a lefty, and if he's close to as good as we're hoping, he should make a solid #5 hitter.

Then Kuroda. I'm skeptical about both potential Japanese talents, as you never quite know how things are going to transfer. But even if Kuroda turns into a decent #4, that's still a pretty respectable rotation, and I feel much more comfortable with Marquis as the 5th guy than the 3rd guy. Plus, I want to see if Marshall can be good in the pen, because he'd be a great long man / loogy. And he's always around as an insurance policy SP. I'm just not wild about 3 SPs who are southpaws, especially when their stuff is at least comparable.

Then there's CF. Most people are expecting EPat to be traded, I wouldn't be surprised. But among our in house CF options (Jones, Pie, EPat) I think that Patterson fills the lineup needs the most by far. They are all lefties, but I think the Cubs need one of them to be the #2 hitter, and Pie and Jones pale in comparison as a top of the order hitter next to Patterson. His ceiling may be lower than Pie, but Patterson appears to have just about reached it. I'd gladly take a .280 AVG with 10 HR and some SBs out of the 2 slot. He's a better base-stealer with a higher OBP than Jones, and he certainly seems more equipped than Pie to hit MLB pitching.

I also am not a huge fan of Jones as an everyday player. But as a 4th OF, I think he could be one of the best there is.

But wait... isn't Theriot the #2 hitter? I don't think Theriot is a starting SS. He's a good player, and I like him as much as anyone, but a guy with a .266 AVG, a mediocre OBP, no power, and OK defense isn't a starter unless you don't really have a better option. He's a GREAT backup SS/2B, but he's no starter. I think that Cedeño MAY have turned a corner, and he's earned one LAST shot at trying to be a MLB SS. Cedeño has a legit upside, whereas I think Theriot has a ceiling of .275 AVG, .350 OBP and 35 SBs accompanied by OK defense, which is again fine, but he'll be 28 when the season starts, he's not gonna develop other parts of his game now.

People have thoughts on this lineup, and Patterson and Cedeño in particular? I think I'm on the 'don't sign ARod bandwagon'. I don't think he can play a great SS anymore, and it seems like the clubhouse has a pretty good chemistry to it, I'd hate to disrupt it with a monster guy like ARod.

Again, I made my Patterson decision largely because I feel that good teams have lineup balance, and we've been far too right handed for a while now. We need a good top of the order lefty in CF. On that thought, I wouldn't be opposed to a one year stop-gap of Kenny Lofton playing CF and hitting 2nd, he'd be fine with me as well.

Strategy Threads

WittyUserName — Tue, 18 Sep 2007 18:58:17 -0000

What would you do?

I occasionally look around the message board at cubs.com, mostly for rumors or what not. But I stumbled across a thread where fans were criticizing the Reds for walking Ward to get to DeRosa in the 9th.

Most people argued that they were probably going for matchups (Lefty / Righty), and many felt that the Reds should've walked the bases loaded to setup the force at home.

My thoughts were:

"I'm sure that this is something along the lines of the what the Reds were thinking:

"We need a double play to get out of this thing. Of the next 3 batters, who is most likely to hit into a DP? Probably Jacque Jones. So we need to walk either Ward or DeRosa for the double play to be set-up for Jones. Between Ward and DeRosa, Ward strikes out less and is more likely to lift one deep enough for a sac fly. Therefore, we have to try to get a weak grounder, pop-up, or strikeout from DeRosa to have any chance."

I don't agree with walking both Ward and DeRosa at all. Then it's bases loaded with 0 outs, and your no longer looking for a double play, but a force out at home. So Say Jones nubs one to 2nd, the throw goes home and nails Fuld, bases are juiced with 1 out. Then you just gave the Cubs an extra batter, if not two extra batters (one to try to get a sac fly, and a second to try for a hit in case of a non DP out). Giving the opponent extra outs to work with is never good (as everyone would agree), but it doesn't just pertain to defensive gaffes, it also has to do with strategy laden situations such as this one.

On the surface, of course you don't walk to get to a guy who is 9 for his last 9 against you. But using the larger sample sizes of both season and career numbers, Ward was much more likely to drive in Fuld than DeRosa was, at least in terms of a sac-fly. It was a 'pick your poison' scenario, it was bad for the Reds either way."

Thoughts on that scenario?

But more than just this particular scenario, I haven't really noticed many strategy heavy discussions about 'what would you do' relating to a recent baseball scenario.

Would others be interested in such discussions / threads?

My 2007 two cents

WittyUserName — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 22:38:11 -0000

Lengthy, but I'm trying to be elaborate

First I'll list my line-up, question marks and all, then I'll try to explain.

1-Torri Hunter CF / Theriot 2B / Lugo SS/2B
2- Murton LF/RF
3- D. Lee 1B (hoping family things are ok, obviously more important)
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Barret LF/RF
6- Torri Hunter CF / Vernon Wells CF
7- Bengie Molina C
8- Izturis SS / Theriot 2B

Rotation:

Zambrano
FA
Hill
Prior / FA / Rookie
Miller / FA / Rookie

Pen:
Closer- Dempster / Wood
SU- Eyre
SU- Howry / Wood
Lefty Specialist- Ohman / Marshall
Long Relief - Wuertz / Marshall

Thats 7 relievers, obvisouly will probably be cut to six depending on who works out between Ohman, Wuertz, and Marshall in ST. And assuming Wood is able to pitch next year.

Ok, so a lot of '/'s in my lineup. Thats because there are so many options and ways things can end up this off season, and the cubs are not the only ones looking for help (obviously)

Leadoff/CF:
I do not hate pierre, but it's possible he'll want a lot of money, and I've seen better guys leadoff, he's fast as (metaphor), but with an OBP of .330-.340, I'm not ecstacic, especially with his low run production (obviously not his job exactly, but everyone, pitcher excluded, should be at least decent at knocking people in, especially in the majors and for that kinda cash)

Torri Hunter or Julio Lugo or Theriot are great leadoff options. Personally, I'd probably put Hunter deeper in the order, probably 6th, but he can lead off if our Middle Infielders aren't options.

Also in CF both Hunter and Wells are solid hitters and good defensive assets, I'd consider both upgrades over Pierre even though I greatly Respect his hustle and heart.

RF
I'm sorry, but if I were a manager, or a GM, Jacque Jones would NOT be on my roster. He is an above average hitter against right handed pitching... thats it, he is NOT an all around baseball player. I'm sorry, but a defensive liablity that will allow virtually EVERYONE to go first to third on base hits to right is not good.

He's seems like a nice guy, and I'm sure he tries really hard, but he's just not an all around baseball player.

Now Barret is a defensive liablity but an offensive powerhouse. If able to play 150+ games he could probably hit more like 25-30hr and drive in more runs. It would also extend his career to move him out of the crouch, and to be honest, some of his defense HAS cost us games. I recall a passed ball 3rd strike for out number 3 with Z throwing. Which set up a 2 out 2 run blast and a loss. I would also like a catcher who can throw out a base runner.

Barret seems athletic enough, and enough of a gamer to make the switch and be solid. I don't know if he or Murton would make the better RF, but both are fantastic baseball guys who hustle everytime out of the box, and can drive in a ton of runs, just what you want from your corner OFs... right?

BTW - Murton is great, anyone who says otherwise, I.... well I disagree, I'll leave it at that and let his numbers speak. The guy is young and a fantastic hitter with patience, don't you dare consider letting him get away.

3B
Ramirez is good, keep him

1B
Lee is amazing, if he goes, we either catch lightning with a prospect, or consider blowing up and starting over.

SS
I can live with Izturis at SS, a GG calibur Middle Infielder is always welcome and he can hit 8th for me. However, there have been some talks about Lugo, and while I hear he's a jerk (which is a deterrent for sure) there are worse ideas. Lugo can leadoff or hit 2nd, has some power and will steal his fair share of bases.

2B
I, like many, really like the look of Theriot, who should legally add a space in his last name. He plays really hard, works the count and is fast. He's solid defensively and all around looks good. In reality, we have too small a sample size to judge accuratly, the league probably doesn't have a good strategy against him yet, need to see how he adjusts to pitchers using a strategy against him other than good pitches.
He has earned an invite to ST with serious consideration for the starting job.
Again, this could be a spot filled by Lugo with Izturis at short. I could live with and be excited about either scenario, personally I'd rather not have a wife beater (rumor I'm pretty sure was about Lugo) on my roster, but this is overall a direction I'd approve of.

Catcher
As most people will agree, Barrett is not the best behind the dish. But again a rather large offensive asset. Toronto recently stated that they don't really plan on bringing back Molina, at least thats what I read on their site (I looked up Molina articles), he's a solid defensive catcher (he's a Molina after all) and while not a killer with the lumber, will contribute his fair share.

I understand that their will be others looking to pick up Molina, I'm really okay with a .270ish hitting solid defensive catcher. I'd take Blanco if I thought he could hit as well as he has this year, but I believe he's a bit old to be the everyday guy all year, and probably won't hit this well again for more than a small streak.

So if CF is Hunter or Wells and Infield is Izzy and Theriot:
1 Theriot
2 Murton
3 Lee
4 Ramirez
5 Barrett
6 Hunter or Wells
7 Molina
8 Izzy

Or if Lugo is SS
1 Lugo
2 Murton
3 Lee
4 Ramirez
5 Barrett
6 Hunter or Wells
7 Molina
8 Theriot

Theriot is 8 in this situation rather than 2, because he's the only one in the lineup likely to hit 5 hrs or even less. And with his phenominal OBP that would give the Pitcher spot a lot of bunt opportunities to move him over.

And if there's a 2B other than those in this equation I'm not sure where they'd hit (obviously)

I think everything regarding the pitching is pretty self explanatory, Spots can be taken by other young arms in the pen.

Z- Obviously the Ace

Hill - Could Potentially be the #2 Starter, but really should debut at 4 if we had a solid 3 in Prior or Miller, but too early to tell for sure on both of those. But Hill should make a fine #3 if he comes to ST with a developed change, and perhaps a work-in-progress 4th pitch.

FA- People throw around Zito and Schmidt. Schmidt would be great but will probably stay on the Coast. I'm not exactly sure who to slate here, so long as it's a tier 2 FA I can deal. If so, perhaps you see who amongst Prior, Miller, and Hill do the best in ST and put them at #2 and the FA at 3.

Prior/Miller/Young Arm - One would imagine that either Prior OR Miller will be ready by next season so they would definetly get a spot, and assuming one of them can't make it, which ever young arm in ST looks the most promising (whether it Marshall, Guzman, or Ryu - you know from Street Fight, they are the most likely condidates) can round out the 5th spot if need be.

So there it is, long winded and all. I know it's for the most part, drastically different from what many others would be planning on, however I think such a line up (once all the '?'s are answered that is) would be phenominal. Score a WHOLE LOT more runs than this current one, and would be pretty darn solid defensively.