SB Nation User Blog: WolfpackSteelersFan

A Post Looking at Who May Break Jerry Rice's Receiving Yardage Record

WolfpackSteelersFan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 23:40:34 -0000

A Post Looking at Who May Break Jerry Rice's Receiving Yardage Record

Similar to the Emmitt Smith post, but this one just looks at which current players have the best shot at Rice's record.

A Post Considering the Likelihood of Emmitt Smith record going down.

WolfpackSteelersFan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:17:14 -0000

A Post Considering the Likelihood of Emmitt Smith record going down.

I wrote this post recently and thought it may be interesting to some other Inhistoric readers. Not really a post on a historical event, but an analysis of historical trends.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are not a Championship Caliber Team Right Now (or, can Ben put himself back together?)

WolfpackSteelersFan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:17:49 -0000

This is my most recent post over at Checking the Numbers. I almost think that the picture says it all. :/

Can Ben put himself back together? (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Earlier this season, there was talk on Behind the Steel Curtain that the Pittburgh Steelers' defense is not playing championship caliber football this season. Early on, most fans were ecstatic about the offensive production, although the offense left points on the field. While I agree that the Steelers defense is not as dominant as it was last year, I put more of the blame on the offense and special teams. Having seen the games this year, I am convinced that the problem with the team lies more in mental toughness than anything else. In at least two of the losses, the team dominated in most categories but found ways to lose. Offensive and special teams miscues have spelled doom for this team on multiple occasions so far this year.

If you look at the games that they have lost this season, each one of them were games where offensive or special teams failures have given the opposing team big, momentum changing plays. In Week 2, against the Bears, Jeff Reed missed not one, but two, FGs (38 and 43 yards). This left the door open for the Bears to rally and win by 3 points at the end of the game.

In Week 3, against the Bengals, the Steelers completely dominated in Cincinnati for nearly 3 quarters, but the offense failed to capitalize on that domination. Limas Sweed dropped a sure touchdown pass that would have put the Steelers up 20-3. So, rather than being up at the half 20-3, Pittsburgh held a 10 point lead. Early in the second half, Santonio Holmes failed to adjust his route during a blitz, leading to an interception that was returned for a touchdown. They did take an 11 point lead into the 4th quarter, though. Had the offense capitalized on those first half opportunities or at the very least, not gift-wrapped a touchdown, the game would have been far out of reach. As it was, two long Bengals drives, with an anemic 3 and out from the Steelers offense, sealed the game for Cincy. Blitzburgh said after the game, and rightly so, that the defense was owned in the 4th quarter. But, the offense set them up by not delivering the knockout in the first half and then failing to convert even a single first down in the 4th quarter.

Last week, the special teams allowed the Bengals to return a KO for a touchdown. The defense held the Bengals to 11 points, which would have been enough even for the anemic offensive output of a mere 4 FGs.

Finally, we come to this week against the Chiefs. The defense essentially held KC to 10 points in the game. After the Steelers gave up yet another KO for a TD to open the game, spotting the Chiefs and quick 7, the Steelers went to work and seemed to control the game until a Roethlisberger interception led to the first offensive points for the KC. Then, deep in Kansas City territory, a second pick from Ben led to a Chiefs FG, tying the game. So, for another game, the Steelers dominated everywhere but the scoreboard. Big Ben had a great day, statistically. But his two turnovers gave a beaten team new life.

This seems to be the story of this year's Pittburgh Steelers. They clearly have elite level talent, but they don't seem to have the mental toughness to avoid mistakes that have led to losses this year. I saw a stat that they have set a new record with 8 straight games with a return for a touchdown against them (either interception, fumble, or kick or punt return). These are the kinds of splash plays that excite an overmatched opponent and give them life when they should be beaten.

Now, having blamed the offense and special teams for each of these losses, I guess I should bring it back to the defense. In each game except the second Bengals game, the Steelers had leads late in the game which the defense failed to hold. But, in each game, when I look at the course of the game, it is the other two units that have given up big plays when needed. The offense couldn't drive down and score a FG in OT against Kansas City. The offense failed to respond after Cincy cut an 11 point lead down to 4 points. Against both Chicago and Cincy (game 2), the offense only scored 14 and 12 points respectively. I guess I ended up blaming the offense again there. Even the defensive lapses could be pointed to a lack of the mental toughness that the Steelers displayed last year, but there are few cases of huge mistakes on the defense. That is certainly not the case for the offense and special teams, for which there are many examples of huge mistakes.

From what I've seen, if the offense stops making stupid turnovers and the special teams becomes reasonable again, this team can win it all. But, if they don't shore up these things, which are mental lapses, this will be another disappointing team, a la 2006.

A midseason review of the Falcons' performance so far

WolfpackSteelersFan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:53:47 -0000

A midseason review of the Falcons' performance so far

The season preview that I had posted several weeks ago seemed popular, so I thought that you guys and gals may be interested in this post as well.

Ward voted NFL's dirtiest player

WolfpackSteelersFan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:41:04 -0000

Ward voted NFL's dirtiest player

Players from other teams still hatin' on Hines. You gotta love Troy's quote at the end, though, on getting 3.3% of the vote for dirtiest player:

Said Polamalu when asked about his supposedly dirty play, "I always do my hair before the game."

LOL, he must still be working the Head and Shoulders. ;)

Colts or Saints? Who is the Best of the Undefeateds?

WolfpackSteelersFan — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:24:35 -0000

Hey Saints Fans! Looks like you're having one heck of a season so far this year. Since only New Orleans and Indy are left among the ranks of the unbeaten, I put together a comparison of the two teams over at my site, Checking the Numbers. It's somewhat similar to the other post that I did here a couple weeks ago. Saintsational again very graciously allowed me to post it in a FanPost, so here you go! Hope you enjoy.

Peyton Manning (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) Drew Brees (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Both ESPN.com and NFL.com have their power rankings as to where teams rank in NFL after the first 8 weeks of the regular season. Everyone that I have seen ranks the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints as the top two teams in the league, but there is some disagreement as to which should be ranked number 1. Both teams have become known for explosive passing games behind future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, who may be making his case for the Hall as well. But as I mentioned in an earlier post on the Saints, New Orleans now also has a serious rushing attack. Let’s see if the Colts have also found that kind of balance. We’ll also compare each team’s opposing offensive and defensive ranks to see what level of competition that they have faced this year.

As I have in the past, I have pulled the average per game numbers for both the Saints and the Colts so that I can compare them side by side. In addition to raw numbers, I’ll show where each team ranks offensively and defensively. Then, I will review the average rankings of their opponents’ offenses and defenses, which will allow me to know what their level of competition has been to this point in the season.

So, let’s get into it. First, I have the team side by side comparison:

Colts versus Saints Comparison
	Saints	Colts	Saints-Colts
Offense
Pts/G	39	28.1	10.9
Yards/G	428.71	403.57	25.14
Yards/Play	6.3	6.5	-0.2
Pass Yards/G	275.43	316.29	-40.86
Pass Att/G	32.86	37.71	-4.86
Pass Yds/Att	8.7	8.5	0.2
Pass INT/G	0.86	0.57	0.29
Sacks/G	1.57	0.71	0.86
Rush Yards/G	153.29	87.29	66
Rush Att/G	33.71	23.57	10.14
Rush Yds/Att	4.5	3.7	0.8
TD/G	5.14	3.43	1.71
Defense
Pts/G	22	13	9
Yards/G	326	292.14	33.86
Yards/Play	5.1	4.6	0.5
Pass Yards/G	223.86	180.14	43.71
Pass Att/G	38.14	36.14	2
Pass Yds/Att	6.2	5.5	0.7
Pass INT/G	2.29	1	1.29
Sacks/G	2.43	2.86	-0.43
Rush Yards/G	102.14	112	-9.86
Rush Att/G	23.29	25	-1.71
Rush Yds/Att	4.4	4.5	-0.1
TD/G	2.43	1.14	1.29

And, then the rankings of each teams' offensive and defensive units:

Saints' and Colts' Rankings
	Saints	Colts
Off Pts	1	6
Off Yds	1	4
Off Pass Yds	6	1
Off Rush Yds	4	30
Def Pts	20	1
Def Yds	15	9
Def Pass Yds	17	7
Def Rush Yds	11	17

As the Saints post that I mentioned above showed, New Orleans still has better balance offensively than the Colts. They are ranked in the top 6 in both passing and rushing, and, consequently, are ranked number 1 in both total yards gained and points scored. On the other hand, Indy is better defensively. It seems that the Saints' defense has slipped somewhat since I last checked on them. The Colts rank ahead of New Orleans in every defensive category except rushing yards allowed. Somewhat surprisingly, Indy is ranked number 1 in the league in points allowed.

Looking back at the raw the numbers, the biggest difference between the two teams is in rushing yards gained. The Saints are averaging 66 more yards on the ground than the Colts. However the second biggest difference is in offensive and defensive pass yards per game. Indy is gaining over 40 more yards and allowing nearly 44 fewer yards through the air than New Orleans. I suppose it shouldn't be a great surprise that two undefeated teams appear to be pretty evenly matched. The advantage of one seems to be offset by and advantage for another. Let's take a look at the level of competition for each team to see if one or the other has faced stiffer foes.

Average Opponents' Rankings
	Saints	Colts
Off Pts	15	18.06
Off Yds	18.57	16.31
Off Pass Yds	20.43	17.44
Off Rush Yds	11.57	14.31
Def Pts	17.71	17.06
Def Yds	15.57	17.81
Def Pass Yds	15.29	18.88
Def Rush Yds	18.14	15.5

Not a huge difference there. The Saints seem to have a slight edge in opponents faced. Their opponents average a higher ranking in 4 of the 8 categories, while one is a virtual tie (defensive points allowed). The Colts' opponents have the higher average ranking in the other 3 categories.

If I had to pick one team over the other (which I should since that's the whole idea of the post), I'd have to lean toward the Saints right now. They have the more balanced team offensively. If Brees struggles somewhat, they can win running the ball, which Indy can't say right now. And, although their defense is giving up more yards and points, they are also taking the ball away more than the Colts, with over twice the number of interceptions as the Colts. With all that said, I'll walk the fence a little and say that you Manning has shown that he can carry his team. Against the Dolphins, he came from behind to win the game with only 14 or so minutes in time of possession for the game.

Finally, before wrapping up, let's take a quick look at each team's remaining opponents.

Average Remaining Opponents' Ranks
	Saints	Colts
Off Pts	20.89	15.89
Off Yds	18.89	12.78
Off Pass Yds	18.11	14.89
Off Rush Yds	14.89	13.33
Def Pts	18.89	13.44
Def Yds	17.67	14.89
Def Pass Yds	12.89	14.78
Def Rush Yds	23.22	16.78

Based on this, it looks like the Colts can expect the tougher road from here on out. It will be interesting to see how each team finishes the season. I don't expect either to go 16-0, but I do think they are both well on their way to clinching the top spot in their respective playoff seedings.

Another Reason to Argue for Hines Ward's HOF Candidacy

WolfpackSteelersFan — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 01:34:02 -0000

Earlier this week, maryrose blessed us with this excellent post on Hines Ward's growing claim to HOF consideration. The only thing he did not highlight in that post was Hines's excellent ranking in terms of playoff receiving stats. I had written this post a couple of weeks ago (and drinkyourmilkshake linked it in a Six Pack), but Blitz and I thought it would be a good followup to 'rose's fine piece. Hope you enjoy it as much as I enjoyed maryrose's.

************

Many Pittsburgh Steelers fans are already convinced that Hines Ward deserves to be inducted in the Pro Football Hall of Fame when he retires. Currently, in his 12th season in the NFL, he is ranked 17th in career receptions, 31st in career receiving yards, and tied for 28th in career receiving TDs. Some would, and have, argued that he doesn't have HOF worthy statistics, and you can't just say he should be in because he is the greatest blocking receiver in NFL history. If he retired today, and that were the extent of his accomplishments, I would agree. But, he should play another 3 or more years, including this season. Currently, he is on pace for about 100 receptions and over 1400 yards this season. Although he has yet to catch a TD pass this year, based on his productivity in past years, it's reasonable expect at least 5 receiving TDs this season. Those numbers would put him at 11th in career receptions, 22nd or 23rd in career receiving yards, and 22nd or 23rd in career TD receptions. Just a couple more years of what would be mediocre production for Ward would put him in the top 10 in every receiving category.

I think that those numbers would be enough to get him in when you consider his other accomplishments: 2 Super Bowl rings (more to come?), a SB MVP, and a rule named after him. When the NFL Network announced the most recent round of HOF candidates a couple of weeks ago, they had two HOF voters on the show. One said that she believed that a major consideration for whether a player is HOF worthy is whether you could tell the story of the NFL without them or not. I think it's clear that you cannot tell the story of the NFL without Hines Ward. His blocking down the field is so physical that they had to change the rules because of the hit he put on Keith Rivers in the 2008 season, breaking his jaw. The hit was legal then. Anyway, that was a long introduction to get to my latest piece of evidence in favor of Hines Ward being HOF worthy.

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Over at Pro-Football-Reference.com, they have added an awesome new set of tools under their Play Index page. Under the Player Game Finder, you can run queries for a variety of lists, but the one that interested me the most right now is query that allowed me to list all players with greater than 1000 career playoff receiving yards. This just happened to show the top 10 WRs in playoff receiving yards.

Rk	Player	G	W	L	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
1	Jerry Rice	28	17	11	151	2245	14.87	22
2	Michael Irvin*	16	12	4	87	1315	15.11	8
3	Cliff Branch	19	15	4	73	1289	17.66	5
4	Andre Reed	19	10	9	85	1229	14.46	9
5	Fred Biletnikoff*	16	9	7	70	1167	16.67	10
6	Paul Warfield*	18	11	7	58	1121	19.33	5
7	Drew Pearson	22	13	9	67	1105	16.49	8
8	Hines Ward	14	10	4	76	1064	14	8
9	Art Monk*	15	10	5	69	1062	15.39	7
10	John Stallworth*	17	12	5	57	1054	18.49	12

As we can see, Hines Ward is one of only 10 WRs in NFL history with over 1000 receiving yards in the playoffs. He is 8th on this list, and that is with the fewest number of playoff games played. As you can see here, he is also tied for 8th in playoff TD receptions. And, here you see that is tied for 4th in playoff receptions. He also compares very well with these players in terms of yards per game, ranked 3rd:

Player	Y/G	Rk
Michael Irvin*	82.19	1
Jerry Rice	80.18	2
Hines Ward	76	3
Fred Biletnikoff*	72.94	4
Art Monk*	70.8	5
Cliff Branch	67.84	6
Andre Reed	64.68	7
Paul Warfield*	62.28	8
John Stallworth*	62	9
Drew Pearson	50.23	10

And, in receiving playoff touchdowns per game, ranked 4th:

Player	TD/G	Rk
Jerry Rice	0.79	1
John Stallworth*	0.71	2
Fred Biletnikoff*	0.63	3
Hines Ward	0.57	4
Michael Irvin*	0.5	5
Andre Reed	0.47	6
Art Monk*	0.47	7
Drew Pearson	0.36	8
Paul Warfield*	0.28	9
Cliff Branch	0.26	10

He does come in last in this list in terms of yards/reception:

Player	Y/R	Rk
Paul Warfield*	19.33	1
John Stallworth*	18.49	2
Cliff Branch	17.66	3
Fred Biletnikoff*	16.67	4
Drew Pearson	16.49	5
Art Monk*	15.39	6
Michael Irvin*	15.11	7
Jerry Rice	14.87	8
Andre Reed	14.46	9
Hines Ward	14	10

But, considering this list, I don't think that's a knock on him. Anyway, for Hines Ward to be included in this list shows that although he has not put up the monster numbers of some of his contemporaries, like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, he has been extremely productive in the playoffs for the Steelers. As Terry Bradshaw, Lynn Swann and John Stallworth can attest, the playoffs are where you really make your mark on the NFL, unless you're Dan Marino, throwing for numbers nobody thought possible at one time.

Add to this the fact that it's highly likely that Hines Ward would have higher receiving totals if he had played on a team that threw the ball more in his career, and his Hall Fame credentials are very solid in my mind. I may be a homer here, but I do believe that the accomplishments and playoff numbers support it very well.

Good discussion on the CBA talks over at Mile High Report

WolfpackSteelersFan — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 00:18:57 -0000

Good discussion on the CBA talks over at Mile High Report

I know we've discussed the CBA here at BTSC. I thought this post was pretty solid, and some of you may be interested in it. The next one may be more interesting, as this one is a bit of a recap of the last 16 years.

Roethlisberger and Ward Having Historical Seasons

WolfpackSteelersFan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:04:45 -0000

Roethlisberger and Ward Having Historical Seasons

Hey BTSC, here's a link to a post I wrote on Big Ben's and Hines's season so far, looking at where they rank in Steelers' and NFL history through 6 games.

Surprise Team of the NFL: Checking the Numbers on the Denver Broncos

WolfpackSteelersFan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:46:19 -0000

Hello, Broncos fans! Congrats on the 6-0 start. I recently wrote a post analyzing the Broncos' numbers so far this season against their numbers from 2008. I contacted John, and he graciously encouraged me to share it with you here. If you enjoy this post, you can see more like it (not all about the Broncos, but mainly about the NFL) at my site, Checking the Numbers. Hope you enjoy!

Is Josh McDaniels a coaching genius? (Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images)

Coming into the 2009 season I, along with many others, thought that Josh McDaniels was an egomaniac who had made a huge mistake in getting rid of Jay Cutler. I know I heard at least one pundit say that the Denver Broncos’ ceiling this year was 3 or 4 wins. Well, so far, the Broncos’ are 6-0, they have the top ranked defense in points allowed (2nd in yards), Elvis Dumervil leads the league in sacks, and McDaniels is looking like a genius. In fact, Neil Paine over Pro-Football-Reference.com wrote a post showing the top season performances in Broncos’ history through the first 5 games of a season. Several players are in the top ten and several more in the top 20 in those lists.

I had planned to complete this analysis last week, but I ran into some issues with my source data. So, I decided to use data for 2009 from NFL.com, while still using 2008 data from Pro-Football-Reference.com. But, anyway, in today's post, I will compare the Bronco's statistical averages on a per game basis for 2008 against the first six games in 2009. Then, we'll take a look at the Broncos' rankings in 2008 vs. so far in 2009. And, finally, we'll compare the average rankings of their opponents' offenses and defenses from last year to this year, with a look at the rankings of their remaining opponents as well.

First, we have the comparison of the Broncos' per game averages in 2008 with those of 2009.

Denver Broncos Year to Year Comparison
	2008	2009	Yr/Yr Imp
Offense
Pts/G	23.1	22.2	-0.9
Yards/G	395.81	368.67	-27.15
Yards/Play	6.2	5.7	-0.5
Pass Yards/G	279.44	236	-43.44
Pass Att/G	38.75	32.33	-6.42
Pass Yds/Att	7.3	7.6	-0.3
Pass INT/G	1.13	0.17	-0.96
Sacks/G	0.75	1.5	0.75
Rush Yards/G	116.38	132.67	16.29
Rush Att/G	24.19	30.83	6.65
Rush Yds/Att	4.8	4.3	-0.5
TD/G	2.63	2.33	-0.29
Defense
Pts/G	28	11	-17
Yards/G	374.56	262.5	-112.06
Yards/Play	6.1	4.4	-1.7
Pass Yards/G	228.5	182.83	-45.67
Pass Att/G	30.94	32.17	1.23
Pass Yds/Att	7.7	6.3	-1.4
Pass INT/G	0.38	1	0.63
Sacks/G	1.63	3.5	1.88
Rush Yards/G	146.06	79.67	-66.4
Rush Att/G	29.31	24	-5.31
Rush Yds/Att	5.0	3.3	-1.7
TD/G	3.13	1	-2.13

As many people predicted, the passing game in 2009 is less productive in gaining yards than in 2008, but not extremely so. That is offset by the fact that INTs are way down, and the running game is more productive. So, letting Jay Cutler go has impacted the team. But surprisingly, it has been more positive than expected.

It is on the defensive side of the ball that the greatest improvements have come for Denver. They are allowing 17 fewer points per game, over 112 fewer yards per game, nearly 46 fewer passing, and over 66 fewer rushing yards per game. They are also getting more sacks and forcing more interceptions per game than last year. I think this may be the biggest surprise of all. Because Denver's defense was so porous last season, I don't know of anyone that expected them to turn into a top 2 defense in the league so quickly. Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan has done an excellent job in getting the most out of his defense.

For comparison, here are the Broncos' offensive and defensive rankings from last year compared to this year.

Denver Broncos' Rankings
	2008	2009
Off Pts	16	18
Off Yds	2	9
Off Pass Yds	3	13
Off Rush Yds	12	7
Def Pts	30	1
Def Yds	29	2
Def Pass Yds	26	7
Def Rush Yds	27	4

This just again highlights how their offense is not quite as explosive, although perhaps more balanced, but their defensive is vastly improved, going from one of the bottom 5 in the league to top 10 in every category. Now that we see how much better Denver has been performing as an overall team this season, let's see if it's against comparable competition to last year. The table below shows the average opponents' offensive and defensive rankings for 2008 and so far in 2009. The third column shows the average rankings for their remaining opponents this season.

Average Opponents' Rankings
	2008	2009 W1-W6	2009 Rem
Off Pts	16.69	18	15.1
Off Yds	16.75	16.67	16.2
Off Pass Yds	16.81	16.67	14.5
Off Rush Yds	14	17.83	21.1
Def Pts	17.63	17.83	17
Def Yds	21.13	21.33	14.4
Def Pass Yds	19.88	18.67	13.1
Def Rush Yds	20.06	22.17	18.4

Overall, the level of competition for this season looks quite similar to what they faced last season. Based on that, I'd conclude that Denver has made significant improvements as a team, again most particularly on the defense. When we look at the average rankings of their remaining opponents, it does appear that the rest of the schedule will be a little tougher than what they have seen so far. But, it's not a huge difference, so that would not be enough to expect a major struggle for the rest of the season.

Just a few more thoughts before I wrap up. Based on these numbers, I see no reason to suspect that the Broncos will not continue to win most of their games this season. But, in football, it is not uncommon for teams to begin to believe that they are better than they are after a hot start like this and struggle down the stretch. So, that will be McDaniels' ongoing job, to keep his team focused and avoid complacency. So far, he's off to a tremendous start.

To some extent, this team reminds me of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. Their offense is better than that Ravens offense, and the defense is not quite as good, but they are only allowing 11 points a game which is just slightly above the 10.3 the Ravens allowed. They have a strong DC in Mike Nolan; the Ravens had Marvin Lewis. Their Head Coach was the offensive coordinator of an offense that broke the record for most points in a single season, like Billick was. And, yet, they are winning more on defense and a strong running game. And, finally, they have a veteran safety who may be a future HOFer, Brian Dawkins, who made his name with another team but is a strong team leader. This seems similar to Rod Woodson being with the Ravens.

I'm not predicting a SB win for the Broncos this year, but so far, they seem to be a solid team with the balance needed to compete for a championship. We will see if Kyle Orton can continue to be as mistake free as he has been so far and whether the team can keep their focus through the end of the season and beyond.