SB Nation User Blog: WolfpackSteelersFan

A midseason review of the Falcons' performance so far

WolfpackSteelersFan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:53:47 -0000

A midseason review of the Falcons' performance so far

The season preview that I had posted several weeks ago seemed popular, so I thought that you guys and gals may be interested in this post as well.

Ward voted NFL's dirtiest player

WolfpackSteelersFan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:41:04 -0000

Ward voted NFL's dirtiest player

Players from other teams still hatin' on Hines. You gotta love Troy's quote at the end, though, on getting 3.3% of the vote for dirtiest player:

Said Polamalu when asked about his supposedly dirty play, "I always do my hair before the game."

LOL, he must still be working the Head and Shoulders. ;)

Colts or Saints? Who is the Best of the Undefeateds?

WolfpackSteelersFan — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:24:35 -0000

Hey Saints Fans! Looks like you're having one heck of a season so far this year. Since only New Orleans and Indy are left among the ranks of the unbeaten, I put together a comparison of the two teams over at my site, Checking the Numbers. It's somewhat similar to the other post that I did here a couple weeks ago. Saintsational again very graciously allowed me to post it in a FanPost, so here you go! Hope you enjoy.

Peyton Manning (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) Drew Brees (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Both ESPN.com and NFL.com have their power rankings as to where teams rank in NFL after the first 8 weeks of the regular season. Everyone that I have seen ranks the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints as the top two teams in the league, but there is some disagreement as to which should be ranked number 1. Both teams have become known for explosive passing games behind future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, who may be making his case for the Hall as well. But as I mentioned in an earlier post on the Saints, New Orleans now also has a serious rushing attack. Let’s see if the Colts have also found that kind of balance. We’ll also compare each team’s opposing offensive and defensive ranks to see what level of competition that they have faced this year.

As I have in the past, I have pulled the average per game numbers for both the Saints and the Colts so that I can compare them side by side. In addition to raw numbers, I’ll show where each team ranks offensively and defensively. Then, I will review the average rankings of their opponents’ offenses and defenses, which will allow me to know what their level of competition has been to this point in the season.

So, let’s get into it. First, I have the team side by side comparison:

Colts versus Saints Comparison
	Saints	Colts	Saints-Colts
Offense
Pts/G	39	28.1	10.9
Yards/G	428.71	403.57	25.14
Yards/Play	6.3	6.5	-0.2
Pass Yards/G	275.43	316.29	-40.86
Pass Att/G	32.86	37.71	-4.86
Pass Yds/Att	8.7	8.5	0.2
Pass INT/G	0.86	0.57	0.29
Sacks/G	1.57	0.71	0.86
Rush Yards/G	153.29	87.29	66
Rush Att/G	33.71	23.57	10.14
Rush Yds/Att	4.5	3.7	0.8
TD/G	5.14	3.43	1.71
Defense
Pts/G	22	13	9
Yards/G	326	292.14	33.86
Yards/Play	5.1	4.6	0.5
Pass Yards/G	223.86	180.14	43.71
Pass Att/G	38.14	36.14	2
Pass Yds/Att	6.2	5.5	0.7
Pass INT/G	2.29	1	1.29
Sacks/G	2.43	2.86	-0.43
Rush Yards/G	102.14	112	-9.86
Rush Att/G	23.29	25	-1.71
Rush Yds/Att	4.4	4.5	-0.1
TD/G	2.43	1.14	1.29

And, then the rankings of each teams' offensive and defensive units:

Saints' and Colts' Rankings
	Saints	Colts
Off Pts	1	6
Off Yds	1	4
Off Pass Yds	6	1
Off Rush Yds	4	30
Def Pts	20	1
Def Yds	15	9
Def Pass Yds	17	7
Def Rush Yds	11	17

As the Saints post that I mentioned above showed, New Orleans still has better balance offensively than the Colts. They are ranked in the top 6 in both passing and rushing, and, consequently, are ranked number 1 in both total yards gained and points scored. On the other hand, Indy is better defensively. It seems that the Saints' defense has slipped somewhat since I last checked on them. The Colts rank ahead of New Orleans in every defensive category except rushing yards allowed. Somewhat surprisingly, Indy is ranked number 1 in the league in points allowed.

Looking back at the raw the numbers, the biggest difference between the two teams is in rushing yards gained. The Saints are averaging 66 more yards on the ground than the Colts. However the second biggest difference is in offensive and defensive pass yards per game. Indy is gaining over 40 more yards and allowing nearly 44 fewer yards through the air than New Orleans. I suppose it shouldn't be a great surprise that two undefeated teams appear to be pretty evenly matched. The advantage of one seems to be offset by and advantage for another. Let's take a look at the level of competition for each team to see if one or the other has faced stiffer foes.

Average Opponents' Rankings
	Saints	Colts
Off Pts	15	18.06
Off Yds	18.57	16.31
Off Pass Yds	20.43	17.44
Off Rush Yds	11.57	14.31
Def Pts	17.71	17.06
Def Yds	15.57	17.81
Def Pass Yds	15.29	18.88
Def Rush Yds	18.14	15.5

Not a huge difference there. The Saints seem to have a slight edge in opponents faced. Their opponents average a higher ranking in 4 of the 8 categories, while one is a virtual tie (defensive points allowed). The Colts' opponents have the higher average ranking in the other 3 categories.

If I had to pick one team over the other (which I should since that's the whole idea of the post), I'd have to lean toward the Saints right now. They have the more balanced team offensively. If Brees struggles somewhat, they can win running the ball, which Indy can't say right now. And, although their defense is giving up more yards and points, they are also taking the ball away more than the Colts, with over twice the number of interceptions as the Colts. With all that said, I'll walk the fence a little and say that you Manning has shown that he can carry his team. Against the Dolphins, he came from behind to win the game with only 14 or so minutes in time of possession for the game.

Finally, before wrapping up, let's take a quick look at each team's remaining opponents.

Average Remaining Opponents' Ranks
	Saints	Colts
Off Pts	20.89	15.89
Off Yds	18.89	12.78
Off Pass Yds	18.11	14.89
Off Rush Yds	14.89	13.33
Def Pts	18.89	13.44
Def Yds	17.67	14.89
Def Pass Yds	12.89	14.78
Def Rush Yds	23.22	16.78

Based on this, it looks like the Colts can expect the tougher road from here on out. It will be interesting to see how each team finishes the season. I don't expect either to go 16-0, but I do think they are both well on their way to clinching the top spot in their respective playoff seedings.

Another Reason to Argue for Hines Ward's HOF Candidacy

WolfpackSteelersFan — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 01:34:02 -0000

Earlier this week, maryrose blessed us with this excellent post on Hines Ward's growing claim to HOF consideration. The only thing he did not highlight in that post was Hines's excellent ranking in terms of playoff receiving stats. I had written this post a couple of weeks ago (and drinkyourmilkshake linked it in a Six Pack), but Blitz and I thought it would be a good followup to 'rose's fine piece. Hope you enjoy it as much as I enjoyed maryrose's.

************

Many Pittsburgh Steelers fans are already convinced that Hines Ward deserves to be inducted in the Pro Football Hall of Fame when he retires. Currently, in his 12th season in the NFL, he is ranked 17th in career receptions, 31st in career receiving yards, and tied for 28th in career receiving TDs. Some would, and have, argued that he doesn't have HOF worthy statistics, and you can't just say he should be in because he is the greatest blocking receiver in NFL history. If he retired today, and that were the extent of his accomplishments, I would agree. But, he should play another 3 or more years, including this season. Currently, he is on pace for about 100 receptions and over 1400 yards this season. Although he has yet to catch a TD pass this year, based on his productivity in past years, it's reasonable expect at least 5 receiving TDs this season. Those numbers would put him at 11th in career receptions, 22nd or 23rd in career receiving yards, and 22nd or 23rd in career TD receptions. Just a couple more years of what would be mediocre production for Ward would put him in the top 10 in every receiving category.

I think that those numbers would be enough to get him in when you consider his other accomplishments: 2 Super Bowl rings (more to come?), a SB MVP, and a rule named after him. When the NFL Network announced the most recent round of HOF candidates a couple of weeks ago, they had two HOF voters on the show. One said that she believed that a major consideration for whether a player is HOF worthy is whether you could tell the story of the NFL without them or not. I think it's clear that you cannot tell the story of the NFL without Hines Ward. His blocking down the field is so physical that they had to change the rules because of the hit he put on Keith Rivers in the 2008 season, breaking his jaw. The hit was legal then. Anyway, that was a long introduction to get to my latest piece of evidence in favor of Hines Ward being HOF worthy.

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Over at Pro-Football-Reference.com, they have added an awesome new set of tools under their Play Index page. Under the Player Game Finder, you can run queries for a variety of lists, but the one that interested me the most right now is query that allowed me to list all players with greater than 1000 career playoff receiving yards. This just happened to show the top 10 WRs in playoff receiving yards.

Rk	Player	G	W	L	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
1	Jerry Rice	28	17	11	151	2245	14.87	22
2	Michael Irvin*	16	12	4	87	1315	15.11	8
3	Cliff Branch	19	15	4	73	1289	17.66	5
4	Andre Reed	19	10	9	85	1229	14.46	9
5	Fred Biletnikoff*	16	9	7	70	1167	16.67	10
6	Paul Warfield*	18	11	7	58	1121	19.33	5
7	Drew Pearson	22	13	9	67	1105	16.49	8
8	Hines Ward	14	10	4	76	1064	14	8
9	Art Monk*	15	10	5	69	1062	15.39	7
10	John Stallworth*	17	12	5	57	1054	18.49	12

As we can see, Hines Ward is one of only 10 WRs in NFL history with over 1000 receiving yards in the playoffs. He is 8th on this list, and that is with the fewest number of playoff games played. As you can see here, he is also tied for 8th in playoff TD receptions. And, here you see that is tied for 4th in playoff receptions. He also compares very well with these players in terms of yards per game, ranked 3rd:

Player	Y/G	Rk
Michael Irvin*	82.19	1
Jerry Rice	80.18	2
Hines Ward	76	3
Fred Biletnikoff*	72.94	4
Art Monk*	70.8	5
Cliff Branch	67.84	6
Andre Reed	64.68	7
Paul Warfield*	62.28	8
John Stallworth*	62	9
Drew Pearson	50.23	10

And, in receiving playoff touchdowns per game, ranked 4th:

Player	TD/G	Rk
Jerry Rice	0.79	1
John Stallworth*	0.71	2
Fred Biletnikoff*	0.63	3
Hines Ward	0.57	4
Michael Irvin*	0.5	5
Andre Reed	0.47	6
Art Monk*	0.47	7
Drew Pearson	0.36	8
Paul Warfield*	0.28	9
Cliff Branch	0.26	10

He does come in last in this list in terms of yards/reception:

Player	Y/R	Rk
Paul Warfield*	19.33	1
John Stallworth*	18.49	2
Cliff Branch	17.66	3
Fred Biletnikoff*	16.67	4
Drew Pearson	16.49	5
Art Monk*	15.39	6
Michael Irvin*	15.11	7
Jerry Rice	14.87	8
Andre Reed	14.46	9
Hines Ward	14	10

But, considering this list, I don't think that's a knock on him. Anyway, for Hines Ward to be included in this list shows that although he has not put up the monster numbers of some of his contemporaries, like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, he has been extremely productive in the playoffs for the Steelers. As Terry Bradshaw, Lynn Swann and John Stallworth can attest, the playoffs are where you really make your mark on the NFL, unless you're Dan Marino, throwing for numbers nobody thought possible at one time.

Add to this the fact that it's highly likely that Hines Ward would have higher receiving totals if he had played on a team that threw the ball more in his career, and his Hall Fame credentials are very solid in my mind. I may be a homer here, but I do believe that the accomplishments and playoff numbers support it very well.

Good discussion on the CBA talks over at Mile High Report

WolfpackSteelersFan — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 00:18:57 -0000

Good discussion on the CBA talks over at Mile High Report

I know we've discussed the CBA here at BTSC. I thought this post was pretty solid, and some of you may be interested in it. The next one may be more interesting, as this one is a bit of a recap of the last 16 years.

Roethlisberger and Ward Having Historical Seasons

WolfpackSteelersFan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:04:45 -0000

Roethlisberger and Ward Having Historical Seasons

Hey BTSC, here's a link to a post I wrote on Big Ben's and Hines's season so far, looking at where they rank in Steelers' and NFL history through 6 games.

Surprise Team of the NFL: Checking the Numbers on the Denver Broncos

WolfpackSteelersFan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:46:19 -0000

Hello, Broncos fans! Congrats on the 6-0 start. I recently wrote a post analyzing the Broncos' numbers so far this season against their numbers from 2008. I contacted John, and he graciously encouraged me to share it with you here. If you enjoy this post, you can see more like it (not all about the Broncos, but mainly about the NFL) at my site, Checking the Numbers. Hope you enjoy!

Is Josh McDaniels a coaching genius? (Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images)

Coming into the 2009 season I, along with many others, thought that Josh McDaniels was an egomaniac who had made a huge mistake in getting rid of Jay Cutler. I know I heard at least one pundit say that the Denver Broncos’ ceiling this year was 3 or 4 wins. Well, so far, the Broncos’ are 6-0, they have the top ranked defense in points allowed (2nd in yards), Elvis Dumervil leads the league in sacks, and McDaniels is looking like a genius. In fact, Neil Paine over Pro-Football-Reference.com wrote a post showing the top season performances in Broncos’ history through the first 5 games of a season. Several players are in the top ten and several more in the top 20 in those lists.

I had planned to complete this analysis last week, but I ran into some issues with my source data. So, I decided to use data for 2009 from NFL.com, while still using 2008 data from Pro-Football-Reference.com. But, anyway, in today's post, I will compare the Bronco's statistical averages on a per game basis for 2008 against the first six games in 2009. Then, we'll take a look at the Broncos' rankings in 2008 vs. so far in 2009. And, finally, we'll compare the average rankings of their opponents' offenses and defenses from last year to this year, with a look at the rankings of their remaining opponents as well.

First, we have the comparison of the Broncos' per game averages in 2008 with those of 2009.

Denver Broncos Year to Year Comparison
	2008	2009	Yr/Yr Imp
Offense
Pts/G	23.1	22.2	-0.9
Yards/G	395.81	368.67	-27.15
Yards/Play	6.2	5.7	-0.5
Pass Yards/G	279.44	236	-43.44
Pass Att/G	38.75	32.33	-6.42
Pass Yds/Att	7.3	7.6	-0.3
Pass INT/G	1.13	0.17	-0.96
Sacks/G	0.75	1.5	0.75
Rush Yards/G	116.38	132.67	16.29
Rush Att/G	24.19	30.83	6.65
Rush Yds/Att	4.8	4.3	-0.5
TD/G	2.63	2.33	-0.29
Defense
Pts/G	28	11	-17
Yards/G	374.56	262.5	-112.06
Yards/Play	6.1	4.4	-1.7
Pass Yards/G	228.5	182.83	-45.67
Pass Att/G	30.94	32.17	1.23
Pass Yds/Att	7.7	6.3	-1.4
Pass INT/G	0.38	1	0.63
Sacks/G	1.63	3.5	1.88
Rush Yards/G	146.06	79.67	-66.4
Rush Att/G	29.31	24	-5.31
Rush Yds/Att	5.0	3.3	-1.7
TD/G	3.13	1	-2.13

As many people predicted, the passing game in 2009 is less productive in gaining yards than in 2008, but not extremely so. That is offset by the fact that INTs are way down, and the running game is more productive. So, letting Jay Cutler go has impacted the team. But surprisingly, it has been more positive than expected.

It is on the defensive side of the ball that the greatest improvements have come for Denver. They are allowing 17 fewer points per game, over 112 fewer yards per game, nearly 46 fewer passing, and over 66 fewer rushing yards per game. They are also getting more sacks and forcing more interceptions per game than last year. I think this may be the biggest surprise of all. Because Denver's defense was so porous last season, I don't know of anyone that expected them to turn into a top 2 defense in the league so quickly. Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan has done an excellent job in getting the most out of his defense.

For comparison, here are the Broncos' offensive and defensive rankings from last year compared to this year.

Denver Broncos' Rankings
	2008	2009
Off Pts	16	18
Off Yds	2	9
Off Pass Yds	3	13
Off Rush Yds	12	7
Def Pts	30	1
Def Yds	29	2
Def Pass Yds	26	7
Def Rush Yds	27	4

This just again highlights how their offense is not quite as explosive, although perhaps more balanced, but their defensive is vastly improved, going from one of the bottom 5 in the league to top 10 in every category. Now that we see how much better Denver has been performing as an overall team this season, let's see if it's against comparable competition to last year. The table below shows the average opponents' offensive and defensive rankings for 2008 and so far in 2009. The third column shows the average rankings for their remaining opponents this season.

Average Opponents' Rankings
	2008	2009 W1-W6	2009 Rem
Off Pts	16.69	18	15.1
Off Yds	16.75	16.67	16.2
Off Pass Yds	16.81	16.67	14.5
Off Rush Yds	14	17.83	21.1
Def Pts	17.63	17.83	17
Def Yds	21.13	21.33	14.4
Def Pass Yds	19.88	18.67	13.1
Def Rush Yds	20.06	22.17	18.4

Overall, the level of competition for this season looks quite similar to what they faced last season. Based on that, I'd conclude that Denver has made significant improvements as a team, again most particularly on the defense. When we look at the average rankings of their remaining opponents, it does appear that the rest of the schedule will be a little tougher than what they have seen so far. But, it's not a huge difference, so that would not be enough to expect a major struggle for the rest of the season.

Just a few more thoughts before I wrap up. Based on these numbers, I see no reason to suspect that the Broncos will not continue to win most of their games this season. But, in football, it is not uncommon for teams to begin to believe that they are better than they are after a hot start like this and struggle down the stretch. So, that will be McDaniels' ongoing job, to keep his team focused and avoid complacency. So far, he's off to a tremendous start.

To some extent, this team reminds me of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. Their offense is better than that Ravens offense, and the defense is not quite as good, but they are only allowing 11 points a game which is just slightly above the 10.3 the Ravens allowed. They have a strong DC in Mike Nolan; the Ravens had Marvin Lewis. Their Head Coach was the offensive coordinator of an offense that broke the record for most points in a single season, like Billick was. And, yet, they are winning more on defense and a strong running game. And, finally, they have a veteran safety who may be a future HOFer, Brian Dawkins, who made his name with another team but is a strong team leader. This seems similar to Rod Woodson being with the Ravens.

I'm not predicting a SB win for the Broncos this year, but so far, they seem to be a solid team with the balance needed to compete for a championship. We will see if Kyle Orton can continue to be as mistake free as he has been so far and whether the team can keep their focus through the end of the season and beyond.

Reviewing the Pittsburgh Steelers after a Quarter of the Season

WolfpackSteelersFan — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:00:04 -0000

Reviewing the Pittsburgh Steelers after a Quarter of the Season

Thought you guys may like this.

Are the New Orleans Saints for Real?

WolfpackSteelersFan — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:56:16 -0000

Hello Saints fans! Here is a Story that I posted at my site, called Checking the Numbers. It's a statistical comparison of the Saints' 2008 per game numbers versus 2009 numbers. I emailed Saintsational to see if he was interested in it, and he said he'd like it posted as a FanPost, so, here it is. Hope you enjoy it. Thanks!

**************************

AP Photo/Bill Feig

Last season, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees nearly broke Dan Marino's single season passing yards record. He fell just a few yards short of breaking the record on the final play of the final game of the 2008 season. While Brees had a great season individually, the Saints as a team were the definition of average, finishing with an 8-8 record. So far in 2009, they are one of the last remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. So, the question is, are they for real, or are they either just on a hot streak or playing cupcakes?

In this post, I will compare the Saints' per game statistics from 2008 with those of the first quarter of 2009. For each season, I will also compare their league rankings in offensive and defensive points, total yards, passing yards, and rushing yards. Then, I will do the same for their average opponents' rankings. This should give some indication as to the level of competition from last year to this. Finally, I will also show the average opponents' rankings for their remaining opponents this year to see if their schedule will get harder than it has been so far.

First, let's compare the Saints' per game numbers of 2008 with those of the first four games in 2009.

New Orleans Saints Year to Year Comparison
	2008	2009	Yr/Yr Imp
Offense
Pts/G	28.94	36	7.06
Yards/G	410.69	414.25	3.56
Yards/Play	6.3	6.2	-0.1
Pass Att/G	39.75	32.25	-7.5
Pass Yards/G	311.06	248	-63.06
Pass TD/G	2.13	2.25	0.13
Pass INT/G	1.13	0.5	-0.63
Pass NY/A	7.7	7.5	-0.2
Sacks/G	0.81	1	0.19
Rush Att/G	24.88	33.5	8.63
Rush Yards/G	99.63	166.25	66.63
Rush TD/G	1.25	1.5	0.25
Y/A	4	5	1
TO/G	1.63	1.5	-0.13
Defense
Pts/G	24.56	16.5	-8.06
Yards/G	339.5	295.25	-44.25
Yards/Play	5.4	4.7	-0.7
Pass Att/G	32.88	38	5.13
Pass Yards/G	221.69	212	-9.69
Pass TD/G	1.31	0.75	-0.56
Pass INT/G	0.94	2.5	1.56
Pass NY/A	6.4	5.2	-1.2
Sacks/G	1.75	2.5	0.75
Rush Att/G	24.88	33.5	8.63
Rush Yards/G	117.81	83.25	-34.56
Rush TD/G	0.88	0.75	-0.13
Y/A	4.2	3.7	-0.5
TO/G	1.38	3.25	1.88

The main reasons that the Saints were not serious contenders for a playoff spot in 2008 were their defense and running game. With the exception of their rush defense rank (17), their defense and rushing offense all ranked in the bottom third of the league last year, which we will see below. As we can see from the above table, though, New Orleans's offense and defense are putting up better numbers in just about every way. While Brees is averaging about 63 fewer yards per game passing, the offense is more balanced, averaging nearly 67 more rushing yards per game. The improved balance has led to fewer interceptions (0.63 fewer/game) and more points, just over a TD more per game.

AP Photo/Bill Feig

The defense is also putting up better numbers. They are allowing over 8 fewer points per game so far in 2009, over 44 fewer yards per game (about 10 fewer passing and 34 fewer rushing yards), and fewer TDs on both the ground and in the air. They are also forcing more TOs: 1.56 more interceptions per game and 1.88 more total TOs. The biggest part of this is due to the early success of Darren Sharper, which I mentioned in my Around the NFL in Week 4 post. Not only is he leading the league in interceptions, with 5, he returned two of them for TDs, to get within two of Rod Woodson, the all time leader in INTs for TDs. Having discussed their per game numbers, let's compare their rankings from 2008 against 2009 so far.

New Orleans Saints' Rankings
	2008	2009
Off Pts	1	1
Off Yds	1	2
Off Pass Yds	1	10
Off Rush Yds	28	2
Def Pts	26	7
Def Yds	23	9
Def Pass Yds	23	13
Def Rush Yds	17	8

Based on these numbers, the Saints are clearly playing more balanced football with a higher performing offense and defense than in 2008. Their offensive passing rank is lower than last year, but that is more than made up for by the improved running game. The question now is: Are they doing that against the same level of competition as last year?

The table below contains the Average Opponents' Rankings for the Saints' opponents in 2008, so far in 2009, and remaining in 2009. I decided to include the "remaining in 2009" rankings because I was curious to see what their remaining level of competition looked like.

Average Opponents' Rankings
	2008	2009 Q1	2009 Rem
Off Pts	15.88	16.5	21.83
Off Yds	15.56	19.25	19.33
Off Pass Yds	16.5	17	15.5
Off Rush Yds	13.06	18.75	9.33
Def Pts	17.25	21.5	16.5
Def Yds	19.38	13.75	20.25
Def Pass Yds	18.19	18	13.08
Def Rush Yds	19.5	16.25	17.58

First, let's just look at the numbers for 2008 and 2009 Q1. The opponents' average offensive rankings in 2009 Q1 are all close to or less than those of 2008. The biggest difference is in Rush Yards rankings, which drops an average of over 5 spots. The others are pretty close, although Total Yards is also about 3.5 lower than 2008. Some of the difference is probably accounted for the Saints' defensive improvement. New Orleans's defensive rankings improve much more than the difference in opponents' offensive rankings, which suggests legitimate improvement, not just better numbers due to inferior competition. The 2009 opponents' offensive rankings would also be impacted by the fact that the Saints' defense is putting up better numbers.

Now, when looking at the Saints' opponents' average defensive rankings, it does not seem that there is drastic difference in the the rankings from 2008 to 2009 Q1. The biggest changes are higher opponents' rankings in total yards and rushing yards. Since the Saints biggest improvement so far this year is in rushing the ball, this also suggests that the Saints' improvements are legitimate. They're not just playing teams that are seives against the run.

Finally, I wanted to take a look at the current rankings of the teams left on the Saints' schedule. The biggest differences are in opponents' average rushing rank, which is significantly higher (almost 9 spots higher), and the defensive pass yards rank. With the improved running game, the higher opponents' defensive pass rankings shouldn't be an issue. However, it's possible that the Saints' rush defensive rank will suffer, even if the unit is playing better than last year.

Having looked at all of these numbers, I have to conclude at this point that, yes, the Saints are for real. They have the best balance they've probably had in team history. Currently, the rush offense is ranked 2nd in the league, their QB is one of two in NFL history to pass for over 5,000 yards, and their defense is much improved in all aspects. This appears to be a team with few weaknesses at this point, if any. We will see how the rest of the season plays out, but up to this point in the season, there is no legitimate reason to doubt that the Saints are championsip contender.

Thoughts?

Favre Watch: Previewing the Packers-Vikings Week 4 Game

WolfpackSteelersFan — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:05:42 -0000

Hello, Packers Fans! I have a statistical preview of the upcoming game that I hope you will enjoy. I appreciate Brandon allowing me to post it here. If you enjoy this, you can find more like it at my site, Checking the Numbers.

*********************

In perhaps the most intriguing game of the year, the Green Bay Packers will travel to Minnesota to take on the Brett Favre led Vikings. This will be the first time that Favre has played his old team, and the second time in my memory where a young star quarterback has faced the icon that he replaced. In the 90's, the 49ers, with Steve Young, faced Joe Montana and Chiefs. That time, Montana came out on top. Now, it will be Aaron Rodgers facing his old teammate. Will Favre get his revenge on the Packers, or will Rodgers help Green Bay fans forget about Brett? (Ok, I know Packers fans will never forget Brett.)

For all of the storylines surrounding this game, it will still come down to who plays the best and takes advantage of their opportunities. By reviewing the statistics for each team (from Pro-Football-Reference.com) up to this point in the season, we may get a better idea of who we will win this game.

I have pulled the per game numbers for each team so that we can do a head to head comparison of their respective offensive and defensive numbers so far this year. I also have each team's offensive and defensive ranks in both points and yards after the first 3 weeks. Then, to help give context these numbers, I have the average offensive and defensive rankings of both teams' opponents, again for both yards and points.

First, the head to head comparisons:

	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	GB - Min
Offense
Points	27	29.33	-2.33
Yards	313	317.33	-4.33
Passing Yds	207.33	173.67	33.67
Passing TD	1.33	1.67	-0.33
INTs	0	0.33	-0.33
Rushing Yds	105.67	143.67	-38
Rushing TD	1.33	1.33	0
Rush Y/A	4.1	4.8	-0.7
Fmb Lost	0.33	0.33	0
Turnovers	0.33	0.67	-0.33
Defense
Points	21	19	2
Yards	335.67	259.67	76
Passing Yds	207	167.67	39.33
Passing TD	2	1.33	0.67
INTs	2.33	1.33	1
Rushing Yds	128.67	92	36.67
Rushing TD	0.33	0	0.33
Rush Y/A	3.9	3.5	0.4
Fmb Rec	0.67	0.67	0
Turnovers	3	2	1

Per Game Averages So Far This Season

Offensively, these teams are surpisingly even. Their averages in points scored and yards gained are very close. So far this year, the Vikings favor the run while Green Bay favors the pass. That is not surprising, with Adrian Peterson running the ball for Minnesota. The differences in both are pretty close, with the Packers passing for about 34 more yards per game while the Vikings rush for 38 more yards per game.

Defensively, to this point the Vikings have the decided edge (except in points per game, with only a 2 point advantage there). They allow 76 fewer yards per game than Green Bay, about 40 fewer passing yards and 37 fewer rushing yards. The Packers do force more turnovers. These differences may reflect Dom Capers' new defensive system, which is confusing and disruptive. But, because it's also new to the Packers, players may be out of place from time to time, allowing more yards.

Having looked at raw stats, here are team rankings in terms of offense and defense for both points and yards.

	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings
Offense Pts Rk	6	4
Offense Yds Rk	22	18
Defense Pts RK	18	15
Defense Yds Rk	19	4

Both teams are ranked considerably higher in offensive points scored than yards gained. This is probably a reflection of strong return games and the amount of turnovers that their defenses force. The Vikings average 14.9 yards per punt return and 32.5 per kick return, while the Packers average a less spectacular 6.3 and 26, respectively. But the Packers are causing 3 turnovers per game, 2 for the Vikings.

Finally, let's look at their opponents' average rankings to this point in the season.

2009 Opponents' Average Ranks
	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings
Offense Pts	23	19.67
Offense Yds	24	29.33
Defense Pts	17	23.67
Defense Yds	18	23.33

There is not a huge difference in rankings between Green Bay and Minnesota's opponents. But, the Vikings do have somewhat lower average opponents rankings, particularly on defense.

While this data does not give a clear favorite, it does show that the Vikings have performed better defensively given similar competition. Based on that, I have a feeling that Minnesota is going to be able to move the ball against Green Bay, so the game may come down to whether Capers's defense can confuse Favre and force him into a couple of picks. I would also expect that it will come down to how successful they are in stopping Adrian Peterson. Given the Packers' average rush yards allowed so far, I think Peterson should have at least an average day, which is pretty good for him.