Before Round 1 at the 2012 RACV Australian Ladies Masters, most bookmakers have Lexi Thompson and Stacy Lewis as #1 or #2 favorite to win at between 9-1 to 11-1. Skybet has Hedwall as co-favorite with Lexi. After Hedwall are Hee-Kyung Seo and So-Yeon Ryu. After last week's win, 14 year-old amateur Lydia Ko is anywhere from 20-1 to 28-1.

Of course, the bookmakers odds are not a precise estimate of the actual probability of each player winning. The odds reflect the bettors' psychology, as estimated by bookmakers. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how well Lexi does with increased expectations. Screen shot of odds shown below

After Yani Tseng's 6th win of the season, I'm interested in speculating what she'll end up with.  She's entered in the Sime Darby this week. She certainly won't miss Taiwan or the CME Titleholders, and she'll be highly motivated to win both. I have no idea if she will play in Japan.  I also think that 4 round tournaments help her, which is why she does well in majors. Also, the smaller fields play to her advantage.

What do Rodney Dangerfield and Sandra Gal have in common?  Looks?  Golf swing? (See Caddyshack.) Or is it that each "gets no respect?"

Should we be surprised that she's leading the Avnet after two rounds?  Before the tournament started, oddsmakers were listing her between 40-1 and 50-1. Longer odds than SH Kim and Anna Nordqvist, and roughly the same odds as Sun Young Yoo, Maria Hjorth, and Amy Yang. 

The larger question is when does one know that someone has risen to a new level and is not just a flash in the pan? I wish I could quantify how many excellent results are needed to become an indicator of future excellent performance. A single tournament can produce a fluke winner (Hilary Lunke and Birdie Kim), but at some point several top finishes in tournaments should indicate a consistent high-quality player.

In 2010, Gal was 67th on the money list, sandwiched between Sarah Jane Smith and Laura Diaz. What would she have to do to be lumped into the group of players that are no longer worried about maintaining their tour card, expected to make the cut every week, and regularly be on the first two pages of the leaderboard? I propose Morgan Pressel and Angela Stanford as typical members of this group--players ranked roughly from #10-#25, who get odds quoted around 25-1. (This group is a notch below the superstars: JY Shin, Yani Tseng, the 2011 Karrie Webb, etc.) 

The Fabulous Fraulein finished 2010 with a tie for 11th at the Tour Championship. She then started 2011 with two antipodean LET tournaments, finishing 6th and 36th. Now four LPGA finishes: 26T, 10T, the Kia Classic win, and 15T at the KNC major. These results are now spread out over a 6 month period: in 7 events, 1 win, 2 other Top Tens, an 11th, a 15th, and no missed cuts. My only reservation is that most of Gal's improvement is with her short game, especially her flat stick. And putters can go wrong in a hurry. Gal's GIR is still in the low 60%, both in 2010 and 2011. Intuitively, this feels like a real, lasting step forward to me. If I were a bookmaker, I'd be offering her at 25-1, not 50-1.

In another sign that Sandra Gal is earning respect, it now looks like she should make the European Solheim Cup team after all.  As reported by BangkokBobby, after Gal won the Kia Classic, European team captain Alison Nicholas was able to offer Gal LET membership. She only has to climb over Catriona Matthew to become the 4th highest ranking European on the Rolex Rankings, which would give her an automatic spot on the team. 

I'm as excited as the next LPGA fan over Lexi Thompson, but she's had so few tournaments that there's little data from which to predict her next result. One gauge is to "follow the money", in particular to see what bookies think. The pre-tournament lines are pretty amazing, quoting odds from 28-1 to 33-1 for Lexi to win the tournament. She is roughly 10th to 12th favorite; more of a favorite than Katherine Hull, who finished runner-up at the WBO. (All odds are for recreational purposes only! I like Mina Harigae at 200-1 on Bodog.)

Among other Americans, she is only clearly less favored compared to Cristie Kerr (who at 8-1 or 9-1 is a co-favorite with Ai, Jiyai, and NYC). According to the oddsmakers, Thompson is as likely to win as Creamer or Pressel, and more likely to win than Inkster, Wie, Christina Kim, or Angela Stanford. Is Lexi really better than most of the US Solheim Cup team? That seems a bit excessive, but we'll just have to wait until Thompson plays in more tournaments.  

In the meantime, make your prediction: