In the first part of my preview, I looked at the changes to how the draft works and how this would affect the Jays strategy that the Anthopoulos-led Jays have employed the last two years. In this second part, we'll look at some players the Jays could be looking at. Since other sites have profiled the bigger names (of interest: Giolito, Dahl, Cecchini, Eflin, Weickel, Smoral, Hensley, Trahan, Virant, Seager) extensively, let's look at some somewhat lesser known players that could fit the Jays' strategy.

Rio Ruiz, 6'2 3B (CA HS), LHB: Ruiz is out this year because of surgery to remove a blood clot in the neck area, but he's got a lot of potential both offensively and defensively. If he drops heavily, the Jays are one of the teams that could pounce on a guy who has the potential to become a star if he's healthy, as he was moving into mid-first round conversation before the operation in April. Baseball America: #98, Minor League Ball: #24, MLB Draft Guide: #42

Shane Watson, 6'4 RHP (CA HS): Perhaps it's because scouts have so many other talented players to look at in Southern California, but I haven't read a lot about Shane Watson. A 6'4 projectable pitcher who already has solid low-90s velocity should attract some attention from the Jays though. He has a solid breaking ball to go along with the heater as his second best pitch. Baseball America: #30, Minor League Ball: #35, MLB Draft Guide: #74

Alex Bregman, 6'0 2B (NM HS), RHB: While Baseball America lists him as a 2B and Perfect Game as C/SS, there's little doubt Bregman is a highly rated prospect. He lost two months with a broken finger and is firmly committed to Louisiana State University, so Perfect Game thinks teams will be hesitant to pick Bregman. Minor League Ball really likes him, as Bregman is number 29 on Matt Garrioch's board, while Baseball America has the guy at #121, MLB Draft Guide at #88.

Walker Buehler, 6'2 RHP (KY HS): Buehler is a projectable right-hander with a Vanderbilt commitment, who can already sit in the 91-94 mph range and has promising secondary pitches. Perfect Game thinks he'll most likely be signable away from Vandy in the supplemental round, where the Jays have three chances to snap him up, if he's not gone by then. Baseball America: #50, Minor League Ball: #145, MLB Draft Guide: #163

Lewis Brinson, 6'4 OF (FL HS), RHB: Scouting reports are pretty unanimous on Brinson: he's got loads of athleticism and potential, but he's very raw. Should have enough speed to stick in center field. The Jays like these kind of players enough to take a chance on them, although Brinson could easily be off the board by the time the Jays get to pick in the supplemental round. Baseball America: #52, Minor League Ball: #50, MLB Draft Guide: #36

Ty Buttrey, 6'6 RHP (NC HS): Tyler Buttrey is a tall right hander who can already hit (not sit) 94-95 with the possibility for more. There's little mention of the quality of his secondary pitches (though MLB Draft Guide seems to like them), but apparently he's big and strong, so Pat Tabler should be happy if Buttrey lands with the Jays. Baseball America: #38, Minor League Ball: #66, MLB Draft Guide: #63

Fernando Perez, 6'1 3B (JC): A junior college candidate! Fernando Perez has good power potential, arm strength, and the athletic ability to play third or the outfield. He graduated from his high school in december early to play junior college ball, with wooden bats. Baseball America: #113, Minor League Ball: #67, MLB Draft Guide: #184

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The MLB First-Year Player Draft is a yearly event that plays a big role in determining the future success of many of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball. In early June (June 4th this year), commissioner Bud Selig will host the event, which spans three days, announcing the teams that get to select one of the available players to negotiate a contract with. The Houston Astros get to pick first because of their terrible performance in 2011, while the Blue Jays first pick at number seventeen. The Blue Jays will also have the 22nd pick as compensation for not coming to terms with last year's first round pick Tyler Beede. The Jays have also been awarded compensation for losing Jose Molina, Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch, in the form of the 50th, 58th and 60th picks. That 60th pick will be the last pick made on day one of the draft, and the Jays will have made the most selections, tied with St.Louis, with five first-rounders. AL East rivals the Yankees, Rays and Orioles will have picked only once, while the Red Sox get three selections on the first day. From the second round onwards the Jays will simply have one pick per round.

The importance of this event, now less than three weeks away, is easily explained: most of MLB's players have come through the draft, only those players from Latin America and Asia signed as international free agents have not been picked in a draft. And now that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has put a limit on international spending in Latin America, the importance of the draft might be even greater than it has been. Toronto Blue Jays' General Manager, Alex Anthopoulos, has made the draft a priority from the start of his tenure. He has smartly acquired draft picks through free agent compensation, expanded the club's scouting department and spent good amounts of money to sign draft picks with high bonus demands. In this first preview we'll look at what the Jays' strategy has been in the past two drafts, and how the new rules will affect that strategy.

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Oh, we can all still feel the effects of the heartbreak caused when it was reported that Yu Darvish would be negotiating with Texas rather than with the Blue Jays. Outrage, sadness, disbelief, it was all there. There was no baseball for another few months, so there was little to take the minds of the fans off this disappointing fact. Now, 4 months later, the highly rated Japanese Iranian pitcher comes to Toronto to face the team whose fans thought they'd sign him.

So far, Yu's made 4 starts, hardly enough to conclude anything with regards to how good he will be. However, put that thought in the back of your mind for the rest of this scouting report. I'm not writing this to say "well, we don't know anything yet", I'm writing this to give you the limited info we do have on Darvish.

In the 4 starts he's made, Yu has faced the Mariners, Twins, Tigers and Yankees, in that order. In his first three starts he walked 4, 4, and 5 batters. He only had one strikeout more than he had walks at that point. But then came the Yankee game, during which he struck out ten and walked only two, while inducing thirteen groundballs off Yankee bats as well. So, one majestic start and three disappointing ones, although Yu limited the damage done during those first three, and he now sports an impressive 2.42 ERA. His FIP is 3.06 and his xFIP is 4.05, his SIERA sits at 4.26 and his tERA is 4.65. Not surprisingly with such a small sample, the metrics disagree on how good Yu'll be going forward.

First off, he's not going to allow zero home runs all year long, so we shouldn't believe what FIP says. His line drive rate is very high, so if that normalizes, with those line drives turning into flyballs, his xFIP will closely resemble his SIERA, if not exceed it. So is Yu a true talent 4.25 ERA pitcher? I think not. For one, he's likely still adapting to his new environment. Secondly, both the data from Baseball Info Solutions and the PitchF/x data say that Yu is average to a little below average at finding the strike zone. Pitchers who are average at finding the strike zone will not walk more than 12% of the batters they face. So has Yu been unlucky with close calls? You decide for yourself:

via pitchfx.texasleaguers.com

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Hello Banterers,

Over at Fangraps they have something called The Game, a game in which you can pick a player daily to accumulate WAR for you. You can compete in the categories Catcher, Shortstop, First Baseman, Second Baseman, Third Baseman, Outfielder, Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher. You have a seasonal budget of $1000 to spend (per position), and Fangraphs determines ahead of the games how much a player is worth that day. This is a simple, fun game, and joining late (like I've done myself) isn't necessarily a disadvantage, as you'll have more dollars to spend per day.

If you'd like to join the custom league I've created, let me know the name of your player and I'll add you to the league.

I'd like to urge everyone to minimize the amount of discussion in other threads about these kinds of fantasy-type baseball games, especially rooting against the Jays because you've picked a player on the opposing team is very much frowned upon. If you want to discuss The Game, keep it in specialized threads like this one.

To help us all out with doing well at The Game, here´s some strategy tips by Fangraphs writer Zach Sanders:

1. If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all
Because there is a 162-game limit for each player you create, there are going to be days in which you do not need to select someone to represent you. If you don’t see a matchup you like at a price you feel good about, there’s no need to force someone to represent you and post negative WAR because of it. This is especially true early on, when you are trying to get a feel for how players have developed and will ultimately perform this year.

2. Ballparks are a huge deal
Since WAR is built on FIP and not xFIP, homers are going to be what kills pitchers. Anytime you get a good pitcher playing in places like Petco, Safeco, PNC, or O.Co, you’re going to want to take advantage of it, even if it costs you an extra dollar or two then you were planning on spending.

3. Rested relievers are a good bet
Picking relievers is a major crapshoot, but there’s something you can do to maximize your odds of having your bullpen member enter the game. Relievers who haven’t pitched in a few days are much more likely to enter the game in any situation, including a blowout, since they need to get their work in.

4. Platoons
Of course, you should try to take advantage of platoon splits whenever possible. I assume you already knew that.

5. Check the lineups!
If you select a player and he doesn’t start, you might as well have taken your budget, doused it in lighter fluid, thrown it in a dumpster where a hobo sleeps, and lit it on fire. Finding a website that posts lineups for all games in a timely manner can be difficult, but I’ve found Baseball Press is as reliable as they come. And no, they did not pay me to say that.

I'm hoping for a lot of competitors, as this game really doesn't take much time. Have fun!

We, the fans, are prone to overreaction sometimes. After the Orioles series, some of us felt like the Jays had completely forgotten how to hit. Even though rationally, we know we should not take small samples to be indicative of actual changes in the quality of players, we still worry that player X may have totally lost the ability to do Y. And for some fans, the minor leagues work the same way. If a good prospect doesn't produce, the fans worry. Because the fans have something invested in these young players. And that investment is called hope. Hopefully, today's recap will instill or restore some hope.

Las Vegas (won 15-5)

Travis d'Arnaud has been a guy that some people will have worried about a bit, and it's not that irrational. After all, it's the PCL, so you expect a hitter to absolutely pulverize the ball, just like Lawrie and Thames did last year. Well, last night d'Arnaud went 3-for-5 with a home run, bumping his season line to .263/.345/.421. That still doesn't look like a PCL line for a guy who hit .311/.371/.542 in the Eastern League last year, but he might be getting there. Meanwhile his fellow catcher and part-time third baseman, the Brazilian spring training hero Yan Gomes, also homered, and was 2-for-4 with a walk. His .342/.360/.493 line might excite some, but his 2/12 BB/K rate does not inspire confidence.

Adeiny Hechavarria went 2-for-5 with 2 doubles and a walk, now hitting a modest .306/.349/.408. He's drawn 5 walks in the last 10 games, which is good to see. Anthony Gose, who didn't play, has a much less inspiring line at .215/.305/.290 with a very high 27.4% strikeout rate but no homers yet. He's young enough to improve a lot, but the strikeouts remain a worry. Moises Sierra (1-for-4, walk) is hitting .309/.385/.494, which isn't enough to force his way onto the big league club, but close enough that if he gets hot, people will start wondering what he could do in the big leagues. David Cooper (4-for-5, 2 doubles and a homer) is doing his thing again, although at .341/.402/.523 he's not hitting as well as last year and the homer yesterday was only his first of the season. Travis Snider (.400/.477/.693) did not play, but his MRI revealed no structural damage to the wrist he hurt, so he'll soon try to continue hitting the way he did before the injury. At 11/11 BB/K, don't say you've seen him destroy the minors before, because he never did something even close to this kind of dominance (small sample, I know).

Joel Carreno has the unfortunate honor of being picked by the Jays'staff as a pitching prospect who can practice his skills in the PCL. He was decent last night, with 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. He gets groundballs and strikes people out, but his big reliance upon his slider and his spotty command might make him a better fit in the bullpen, where he excelled last year. Speaking of the rotation, what's up with Jesse Chavez? He has pitched 28.2 innings with a 2.51 ERA, with impressive underlying stats: 27.5% Ks and 51% groundballs. He's looking like solid rotation depth at worst, although his track record tells us this is probably fluke. But is it?

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As Tom noted yesterday, around 10% of the season is in the books. That means that a lot can still happen, but we can now start looking at some early trends that could indicate a hitter has made changes.

Yunel Escobar: at .231/.274/.295, his slash line is way down from last year. He has made up for it with great defense, but is there cause for concern? A big thing for Escobar is his eye and patience at the plate, but this year he has swung at 47% of the pitches thrown to him, up from 40.1% last year. Escobar is still showing a great eye at the plate, as most of his extra swings have been on pitches in the zone, and he's still making contact at a very good rate. The problem has been the quality of the contact made, as he has pounded the ball into the ground 65% of the time, up from 57%, and his line drive rate has dropped. So far, Escobar has hit fastballs well, but struggled with sliders. Escobar has been a very complete hitter over his career though, so I do not expect that to continue.

Kelly Johnson: at .246/.395/.459, Kelly has without a doubt (in my mind at least) been the most valuable position player on the team so far, as he has also provided good defense at second base. Kelly has still struggled mightily to make contact, at exactly the same rate as last year, when he struck out an amazing 26.6% of the time. He has, however, taken the art of drawing walks to a new level by swinging at only 40% of the pitches thrown to him, and when he has swung, it has been mostly at strikes. One possible problem is that he has hit a lot more popups and groundballs than in previous years, which explain the low BABIP. Kelly has so far hit sliders and fastballs well, though he has hit fastballs, cutters and changeups well over his career, with sliders his main weakness.

Jose Bautista: few fans would have been expecting Jose to hit only .200/.359/.367 in the first 10% of the season, but alas, he has. While Jose is still not swinging often, his pitch selection has taken a turn for the worse, with 6% more swings on stuff out of the zone, and 5% less swings on pitches in the zone. He has made just as much contact with pitches as last year, but this year the contact has been made more on pitches outside the zone, and that is, of course, not good at all. Jose has cut down on the popups a tiny bit, but at the cost of less flyballs. If Jose's going to profit from his amazing power, he needs to hit the ball in the air more. So far, Jose has killed sliders, but been totally fooled by changeups and he's not hit fastballs that well, either.

Adam Lind: Adam's .211/.286/.351 line doesn't exactly scream "power hitting first baseman", but it hides a very much improved approach from the struggling first sacker. His swing% is down from 50% to 41.5%, and his contact rate is up by as much as 10%! His problem so far has been generating power with this new approach, and a greatly increased groundball rate has been a major culprit. Adam's still hitting a bunch of line drives, but it's still not translating into a decent BABIP. With the rest of the team also hitting more grounders, that's possibly simply a result of the pitchers the team has faced. But to be an acceptable first baseman with the bat, the balls he does hit in the air need to go farther than they have so far. Lind has been great with breaking stuff this year, but fastballs remain a weakness of his (2009 was the exception), and pitchers have been throwing more of those fastballs than last year.

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In one of my last articles, I found that pitchers who got a lot of popups were pretty likely to outperform their xFIP by quite a bit. That isn't too strange, as xFIP counts all flyballs as bad, even though popups are easy outs and never go for home runs. So if a pitcher has a way to induce a lot of weak flyballs, xFIP will underrate him. But how does a pitcher induce weak outs in the air? The only pitch that seems like a good bet is the four-seam fastball, the one pitch that is meant to fool the batter by ending up higher than the batter expects. It's also the pitch that is used most often, and therefore put into play most often, for most pitchers. It also accounts for the highest percentage of flyballs among pitches, so logic seems to dictate that if there's a skill to inducing weak contact in the air, it's most likely to come from four-seam fastballs.

To test this theory, I used the same method that I used for the previous article on popups and line drives. I looked at the pitch values for pitchers who have pitched at least 700 innings since the start of pitch value data, which is in 2002. I then looked at the pitchers who had a fastball value of 0.5 runs per 100 pitches better than average, which gave me 18 pitchers with very good fastballs. I then looked at their ERA-, FIP- and xFIP-, which are all stats that have been corrected for league and park. We'll see if the values match, or if the advanced stats are off again, like was the case for pitchers who induce a lot of popups.

The Best Fastballs

Averages: ERA- 80.3, FIP- 83.3 , xFIP- 87.8

Analysis

The pitchers with the best fastballs surrended only 80% of the runs an average pitcher would allow in the same league and ballparks. In a run environment where an average ERA is, let's say, 4.30, these pitchers would be expected to have an average ERA of 3.45. However, xFIP thinks they should allow 88% of the runs an average pitcher would allow, which would mean a 3.78 ERA. So the xFIP formula underrates the fastball pitchers' ERA by 0.33 points on average, which is definitely significant enough to make us question the validity of xFIP in certain cases.

Perhaps you're now wondering why Curt Schilling and Jake Peavy would underperform their xFIP-s? Both have played in some extreme parks. Peavy pitched mostly in Petco (extremely hard to hit home runs in) and a bit in U.S. Cellular (very homer prone), and in addition he was from his best up until now in the latter. Schilling played most of his post-2002 period in Fenway, which usually suppresses home runs (turns them into doubles), but it can turn high flyballs, not even hit that hard, into home runs that would've been caught in a bigger park. In spacious Petco, pitchers - especially right-handers - don't have to induce weak flyballs to keep them in the park, which could mean that an ability like that is "wasted" somewhat in Petco. It's also possible that Petco Park simply boosted Peavy's fastball value a whole lot, and that he shouldn't be on the list. Now that he seems healthy, we'll see what his fastball can do in a much more difficult park.

Follow me after the jump, because there we'll look at the pitchers with the worst fastballs.

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Perhaps lost in the excitement over opening day was that this year, minor league opening day was on the same day as the major league equivalent. The Jays' affiliates saw action in the three most advanced leagues, as the low-A Lansing Lugnuts had to wait one more day to start their season. Of course, Bluebird Banter will keep you up to date on proceedings down in the minors, as the Jays have plenty of interesting prospects to watch this season.

Dunedin (high-A) wins 6-3

As alluded to in the horribly punny title, Marcus Knecht had a good start to his season, hitting a two-run bomb in his very first at bat of the season. It was his only hit of the day, but it was a big one. The other two of the exciting outfield trio that the high-A affiliate boosts this year didn't do nearly as well. Jake Marisnick started off with an 0-for-5 performance* and two strikeouts, while Michael Crouse was 0-for-4 with three Ks and a lineout. The best hitter of the day has to be Kevin Nolan, a utility infielder who hit .281/.375/.413 for Dunedin last year, and started this year 2-for-3 with a double, a triple and a walk. The Dunedin team features mostly players who are old for the league, with the exception of the outfield trio, so it's probably best not to get excited about those guys, even if they hit well.

Starting pitcher for Dunedin was John Stilson, last year's third round pick out of Texas A&M. For those who do not yet know, Stilson was considered a first-round talent who feel due to serious injury problems. The fact Stilson is pitching in games is good news by itself, but the three innings he gave the D-Jays were of great quality, as well. Stilson recorded three strikouts on one walk, with five grounders induced and one popup. That means he's started the season with a K% of 33.3 and a GB% of 83.3. The likelihood of Stilson getting results that good for the rest of year are near zero, but it's a great start no matter how you slice it. Promising reliever Daniel Barnes got his first save, strikeout and scoreless inning to close out Dunedin's first victory.

*: I consider sacrifice flies to be outs.

New Hampshire (double-A) wins 5-3

With Gose, d'Arnaud, Hechavarria and Sierra up to triple-A, New Hampshire has got few hitting prospects left to be excited about. One of them is A.J. Jimenez, and he definitely had a good start. The catcher, who is highly rated for his defense, hit three line drives for hits in five at bats and also stole a base. To further increase his repuation as a god defender, he also threw out two baserunners. The only other decent prospect, Mike McDade, had a walk and two strikeouts with no hits. No Fisher Cats recorded extra base hits in the win.

Highly regarded pitching prospect Drew Hutchison got lots of praise from me in last year's recaps, and should challenge for the number one "recap darling" this year, with Nestor Molina now elsewhere (*sniff*). 'Hutch' didn't start off too hot with consecutive doubles followed by a walk, which ended up as two runs scored, but Drew settled in after that. He wouldn't allow any more baserunners after the first inning, and he struck out 6 of the 19 batters he faced (31.6%) while limiting the opponent to just the three hits and one walk they got in the first inning. The only worry was that only 4 out of 11** balls were hit on the ground against Hutchison. Small sample yes, but Hutchison 15 innings in Double-A last year were littered with flyballs and line drives (and strikeouts, that too) so there's some cause to watch this closely.

**: I do not count bunted balls for groundball ratio. There was one bunted ball against Hutchison yesterday.

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Profile

Justin Masterson is a 27 year old right-hander who was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2006 MLB Draft by the Boston Red Sox. After his first season in the minors, where he posted decent but unimpressive (4.33 ERA, 13.7 K%) numbers in high-A, and quite impressive (4.34 ERA, 24.7 K%) numbers in double-A ball, he was ranked in Baseball America's top 100 as number 64. He started 2008 back at the double-A level, where he produced a 4.23 ERA and 21.9 K% over 8 starts before producing a 3.67 ERA and 4.73 xFIP as a starter for the Red Sox. He would finish the season in the bullpen, and would start as a member of the bullpen in 2009 as well. That didn't last long though, as the Red Sox needed him in the rotation. He posted only a 4.58 ERA (4.18 xFIP) as a starter though, so he was moved back to the bullpen after just six starts.

Masterson's role changed once again after he was traded to Cleveland for Victor Martinez. Masterson struggled a bit for Cleveland though, giving up too many walks and pitching to a 4.55 ERA (4.36 xFIP). His performance in 2010 will have had many people doubting whether he would've been better off in the bullpen, as his 4.70 ERA in a good year for pitchers was very disappointing. A 3.87 xFIP and an impressive 59.9% groundball-rate inspired some hope for the future, and in 2011 Masterson had a breakout season with a 3.21 ERA, a career low walk-rate and a 3.64 xFIP.

Justin Masterson's best quality as a pitcher is getting groundballs, averaging 56.1% over his career so far, which is very good. His control often led him down, though he finally cut his walk rate to a decent amount in 2011. He can also get strikeouts quite competently, so Masterson has become a complete pitcher and a good "number three" starter for most rotations. One problem he has, however, is facing lefties. Masterson has a 3.16 FIP versus right-handed batters, but against lefties it's just 4.46, with a bad BABIP to boot. The pressure is mostly on the left-handers, then, to get the run production going against Masterson.

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Hugo and I have both been busy, so our 'just missed out lists' are a bit late. Tom's list of prospect who just missed the top 50 can be found here.

Shane Opitz: After recording just 36 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League the year prior, young Opitz played his first true season of professional baseball in the Northwest League, which is full of older players, a lot of them drafted from college. Where Nicolino shone despite his young age, Opitz just barely held his own with the bat: .259/.312/.285, which was 74% of what the average hitter in the league produced. With reasonable walk- and strikeout-rates, the low slugging percentage stands out as the main reason Opitz failed to be valuable at the plate. There's reason for optimism, though, as Opitz is still fairly young at age 20, and plays the middle infield. Although I wouldn't assume Opitz can stick at short, he's a left-handed batter who might make the majors as a utility player who could form the left-handed, and therefore rare, part of a platoon.

Seth Conner: Another high school draftee from the 2010 draft, Conner got a much easier assignment than Opitz by getting to play in the Gulf Coast League. After struggling initially, he got hot late on, bumping his season line to .276/.395/.420. Conner has played third, first and catcher, but I'll assume he ends up at first, so he needs to improve his power production. His eye seems to be good though, and that's a good start. It's a long shot to happen, of course, but Conner could yet improve greatly and surprise us all by becoming a good hitting prospect as he matures.

Derrick Loveless: No, I didn't pick this guy because of his name. Loveless, just 19 this year, was picked late in last year's draft, but has interesting enough tools to have featured in a story on Perfect Game, a baseball scouting website. He's probably athletic enough to stay in center field for a while, which means there isn't too much pressure on his bat. After just 21 at bats in the GCL last year, we've yet to get a good read on Loveless' current skills as a hitter, so we'll be watching him somewhat closely in short-season ball later this year.

Brady Dragmire: Another young guy, another low draft pick who shouldn't be underestimated. Dragmire, drafted in the 17th round from his high school in California, was a multi-sport athlete who also got an offer to play football for Brigham Young and played a mean shooting guard too. He got a pretty sizable bonus of 250,000 from the Jays, and supposedly already throws low-90s, but at just 6'0 might not have the room to add much more. Having pitched just one disastrous inning last season, Dragmire will have learned a lot in instructional league, and after learning even more in extended spring training we'll finally find out if he's as good as he claims to be - he expects to be major league ready in two to three years - once short-season ball starts.

Andy Burns: Burns is the oldest guy on my 'just missed out list', and he's a guy who fit AA's 2011 draft strategy perfectly, as the Jays GM kept targeting players whose stock had dropped in 2011. Burns was seen as a second- to third-round pick before 2011, and his stick dropped because he was ineligible to play after transferring from Kentucky to Arizona. Perfect Game thinks he should be a solid defender at third and a good runner who will flash power at the plate. Burns didn't have a great 90 PA trial with the Vancouver Canadians, but this season Burns can hopefully prove that he can still play. He'll start the season as a 21-year-old, so hopefully he can make it to at least high-A ball this year.

Justin Atkinson: Atkinson follows in the footsteps of Michael Crouse and Dalton Pompey as Canadian-born late round draft picks who are young and have potential. Atkinson wasn't even as raw as you might expect from a 17-year-old with a slash line of .279/.298/.395 in just 48 plate appearances. Awfully small sample size of course, but the fact that Atkinson struck out in only 6 percent of his plate appearances is encouraging. A big kid at 6'3, 200 pounds, the Jays have already moved him off shortstop to third base, where he should be a good defender. If his development as a hitter follows in the footsteps of Pompey and Crouse, he should move on to the top 50 within the next two seasons.

Peter Mooney: A diminutive shortstop - he's listed at 5'8 by Fangraphs but at 5'6 by Perfect Game - Mooney is highly rated for his defense but not so much for his offense or offensive potential. He did hit very well in the 141 plate appearances he got after signing last year as the Jays' 21st round pick. Mooney, who played mostly for Bluefield, had more walks than strikeouts and hit a whole bunch of doubles and triples, along with a single home run, for an overall line of .286/.403/.491. Mooney also hits left-handed, opening up the possibility of a future (semi-)platoon with Adeiny Hechavarria, should the Cuban keep struggling versus right-handed pitching. One more thing about Mooney: he has a College World Series ring, so he definitely "knows how to win".

ERA

The art of pitching has a clear goal: prevent the opponent from scoring runs. While it may not be possible to stop the opponent from scoring runs entirely, the pitcher has the clear objective of keeping the damage done to a minimum. Traditionally, the runs that a pitcher has given up have been measured by ERA, or Earned Run Average, which counts the number of runs scored from baserunners that the pitcher has allowed, excluding those that have gotten on base because of an error made in the field. The idea behind this stat, then, is that a pitcher takes full responsibility for the runs that are scored while he is on the mound (or later, in the case of inherited runners scoring).

FIP

Sabermetricians and their followers reject this "philosophy" of pitcher responsibility, because they argue that the defense behind pitchers plays an important role as well. To filter out the influence of the defense, they assume that all "in-between results" are not predictive of future performance. The FIP, or fielding independent pitching, statistic therefore only counts the most well-hit balls (home runs) as a measure of hittability, walks as a measure of bad command, and strikeouts as a measure of the ability to miss bats (well, duh). So all types of contact a pitcher allows beyond home runs are considered irrelevant, because a pitcher, it is believed, doesn't have any control over how well batters make contact on non-home runs.

xFIP

Now, xFIP (expected FIP) goes a step back, in eliminating home runs from the equation. Instead, xFIP uses flyball% as a measure of the pitcher's ability to induce weak contact. More flyballs means a pitcher is less skilled at inducing weak contact. Now, consider this graph:

(via www.insidethebook.com)

Here you can see that those balls that are called flyballs are indeed usually hit hard (high Speed Off the Bat or SOB), while groundballs are usually hit sofly and at a low angle (VLA). Although flyballs (and also home runs, in the extreme) and groundballs are on opposite sides of this spectrum, both line drives and popups form an important part of the spectrum as well. Popups are a sign of weak contact (but are included in FB%, so seen as bad), while line drives are a sign of hard contact, but they're not counted as flyballs, so they actually improve a pitcher's xFIP. Popular theory, well sabermetric theory anyway, holds that pitchers have no influence over line drives hit against them, and that the influence of popups is insignificant. But is that belief justified?

Continue reading this post »

Previously on the Bluebird Banter Top 50 Jays Prospects: 46-50, 41-45, 36-40, 31-45, 26-30, 21-25, 16-20 and 11-15.

10. Aaron Sanchez, RHP - Sanchez was the 34th pick of the 2010 MLB draft, a compensation round pick the Jays got for losing Marco Scutaro. Incidentally, the 2nd round pick the Jays also got for Scutaro is even higher on this top 10, but you'll have to wait for the top 5 to see his write-up. Sanchez had a somewhat disappointing 2011 season, which he spent mostly in the Appy league pitching for the Bluefield Blue Jays. Struggling with his control, Sanchez was very inconsistent, alternating between subpar and dominant outings. His ERA for Bluefield was just 5.48, but he was striking out people at a good rate, and in 4 Vancouver starts he had just a 3.67 ERA. Stuff-wise and projection-wise the big righty is highly rated by scouts, but he'll have to harness his command if he is to become a good big league starter. 2012 could certainly see Sanchez break out in a big way. He's likely to pitch in low-A ball for the Lansing Lugnuts, along with another pair of top 10 prospects.

9. A.J. Jimenez, C - I think Jimenez is an underrated player, so I really like the fact he made the top 10. Aged 20, Jimenez was young for high-A ball, but still managed to hit .303/.353/.417 in a tough league for hitters. This may seem like a simple continuation from his performance in Lansing last year (.305/.347/.435), but Jimenez actually cut down on the strikeouts quite a bit. But while the hitting was decent, most of Jimenez' value comes from his glove, which is very highly rated, at a very important defensive position. He threw out 44% of the potential base stealers this year, which, if you can believe it, is actually down from 53% the previous year. He also allowed 6 passed balls in 98 games, which is a third of Perez's 18 in less games (89). Where Carlos Perez has the potential to develop into a good defensive catcher, Jimenez seems to be already there. And no, he's not older than Perez, he's actually a little over a month younger.

8. Deck McGuire, RHP - The 11th overall pick in the 2010 draft, McGuire's selection wasn't universally loved by Jays fans at the time. His debut season as a pro was pretty good though, and there's a good chance we'll see McGuire in the majors before the season is over. McGuire started out pretty decent in Dunedin, but early on I noted that McGuire had quite a high flyball rate, something that should be a bit of a worry unless the pitcher gets a very high number of strikeouts. Fortunately, McGuire's groundball and strikeout-rates improved as the season went on, after the Jays had instructed McGuire to work down in the zone more (source). While McGuire may not have the highest ceiling of the pitching prospects in the Jays system, he's a good bet to be at least decent and he's still improving, too. We'll be sure to monitor McGuire's progress in AA closely, and hopefully he'll be ready to pitch for the Jays pretty soon.

7. Daniel Norris, LHP - As a second round pick, Daniel Norris can be seen as an absolute steal by AA and his team, as the promising left-hander had been routinely picked as a top-15 guy. Norris dropped because he was apparently demanding 3.8 million dollars, but he signed for a little over 2 in the end, which probably made plenty of teams regret not taking a chance on him. Scouts love Norris' potential as a guy who could throw hard from the left side with a great changeup and one or two decent-good breaking balls. However, he still has to prove he can reach that potential, and he'll need to command his pitches as well, as Aaron Sanchez learned this year. It's easy to dream on Norris, and it'll be a long wait until short-season ball starts to get a look at how good he already is.

6. Drew Hutchison, RHP - Like McGuire, Hutchison is already close to the majors and probably doesn't have a lot of projection left. Not that he needs it, because Hutchison already throws low-90s with good command and several good offspeed offerings. Hutchison may be described as a command guy, but there are also reports that his fastball is actually pretty good with plenty of deception. His 27.6 and 27.7 strikeout-percentages in Dunedin and Lansing respectively do point to pretty good stuff, and in a brief (15 innings) trial at AA-level, Hutch struck out an intimidating 37.5% of the batters he faced. It seems as though Hutch could be ready for the big leagues by mid-season or even right now, but the Jays are likely to want to try and see what McGowan and Drabek can do first. With Nestor Molina gone (*sniff*), Hutchison is definitely the most exciting pitcher we could see in a Jays uniform this year. I, for one, can't wait.

As you can see, it's my turn again. Tom has done 46-50 and 31-35, while hugo did 41-45 and most recently 26-30. In my previous appearance I was given 36-40, and now I'm back with 21-25.

25. Moises Sierra, RF - We've been waiting for years for a Moises Sierra breakout season, and after missing almost all of 2010 through injury, it seemed to be happening for him in 2011. Over the first two months he struck out very little, hit for power and had a very good line-drive rate. Unfortunately, he couldn't keep it up, and he ended the season with a .277/.342/.436 line. This wasn't actually an improvement over his 2009 performance in Dunedin, when he hit .286/.359/.393. Since then, he's improved in the power department but he also struck out more and lowered his BABIP. Interestingly, since his LD% did go up, StatCorner's adjusted wOBA thinks Sierra should have had a .377 wOBA instead of a .354 figure. And it does look odd that Sierra hit 18 homers but just 19 doubles, despite such a high line-drive rate. It's quite possible Las Vegas turns Sierra into a monster, like it did with Thames and Lawrie, but even if it does, is there a spot for Sierra on the big league team? Sierra's outfield arm is very, very good, but I do wonder if his range is good enough, considering he's become quite a big guy.

24. Kevin Comer, RHP - Comer's quite the opposite of Sierra, in that we've got no pro data to work with and in that Comer is expected to be quite far away from the majors. Like Mark Biggs, who I did my best to profile in my previous piece, Comer was a highly rated potential draftee at the beginning of the 2011 season. Also like Biggs, Comer didn't pitch much at all in 2011, and when he did pitch he wasn't as good as in previous years. So Comer's value dropped, and it was believed he would probably go to Vanderbilt to play in college ball. Comer did sign, of course, and now the Jays have got another pitcher with a lot of potential in their ranks. Comer already throws low-90s, while scouts think he can add more velocity, and he also has a good curveball that he used to rack up the strikeouts in high school. The level of competition in New Jersey isn't highly rated though, and Comer will have to get used to pitching a lot more innings in pro ball. We'll have to wait for rookie-ball to start before we can get an idea of just how raw Comer really is.

23. Sean Nolin, LHP - Nolin's very much an under the radar prospect who quietly had a solid season in Lansing. He posted a 3.49 ERA in 108 1/3 innings pitched, but his defense didn't help him out that well: his FIP was lower at 3.16. At 21, he was a bit old for the level, although it was his first full season as a pro, I'd like to see him jump to AA in the middle of the 2012 season. Nolin's got a good changeup, which is probably the main reason for his high strikeout% at 25.3. His fastball seems to be high-80s, sometimes low-90s, which isn't that bad for a lefty, but the strength of his fastball is an important question mark, to me at least. His groundball rate was just 41%, so we'll have to watch the number of HRs Nolin gives up once he faces better hitters. Even with those reservations, we can not applaud AA and his scouting enough for his 2010 draft picks, when even the 6th and 7th rounders are striking out more than a quarter of the batters they face. Even if they don't get to start, they could become good bullpen arms.

Continue reading this post »

I studied the minor league K-rates of successful young big league pitchers the past season, and found that most of them had K-rates over 20% in the minors. That led me to post an article arguing the importance of K% in the summer. However, what I did not do was post the results of those successful big leaguers. Now, I'll take another look at this analysis, and expand the number of pitchers and list the results here in this article. I generally assume the age of 23 or lower to be age appropriate for AAA, with each level below that one year lower. So 22 for AA, 21 for A+ etc. I'm using a minimum of 50 IP for each level.

Of course, which pitchers can be described as successful big leaguers is a bit subjective, but I think the list contains few pitchers that wouldn't be welcome on most, if not all major league rotations. If I omitted or included pitchers you disagree with, please bring it up in the comments.

Rookies in 2006

Jered Weaver - A+/AA (22): 29.4%, AAA (23): 31.5%
Matt Cain - A (18): 29.7%, A+/AA (19): 24.5%, AAA (20): 28.1%
Francisco Liriano - Rk- (17): 28.1%, A (18): 25.8%, A+ (20): 26.1%, AA/AAA (21): 30.9%
Justin Verlander - A+/AA (22): 30.0%
Cole Hamels - A/A+ (19): 38.4%
Josh Johnson - A (19): 16.9%, A+ (20): 20.6%, AA (21): 18.9%
James Shields - A (19): 21.4%, A+ (21): 18.8%, A+ (22): 18.5%, AA (23): 23.8%
Anibal Sanchez - A- (20): 32.6%, A+/AA (21): 28.4%, AA (22): 25.1%
Jon Lester - A (19): 15.7%, A+ (20): 25.4%, AA (21): 27.1%
Adam Wainwright - Rk-/Rk (18): 34.5%, A (19): 26.6%, A+ (20): 23.9%, AA (21): 21.4%, AAA (22): 22.7%
Matt Garza - A (21): 27.2%, A+/AA/AAA (22): 29.0%, AAA (23): 23.7%
Chad Billingsley - Rk (18): 27.6%, A+/AA (19): 28.5%, AA (20): 26.9%, AAA (21): 26.3%
Jonathan Sanchez - A (22): 31.1%, AA/AAA (23): 34.7%
Shaun Marcum - A/A+ (22): 25.8%, AA/AAA (23): 19.4%
C.J. Wilson - Rk/A (20): 26.7%, A+ (21): 16.3%, AA (22): 16.5%
Edinson Volquez - A/A+ (20): 20.4%, A+/AA (21): 24.2%, AAA (22): 25.5%

Rookies in 2007

Yovani Gallardo - A (19): 21.9%, A+/AA (20): 30.8%, AAA (21): 34.9%
Ubaldo Jimenez - Rk (18): 22.6%, A (19): 21.4%, A+/AA (21): 22.3%, AA/AAA (22): 23.1%
Dallas Braden - A+/AA (21): 23.2%, AA/AAA (23): 28.5%, AAA (24): 25.6%
John Danks - A/A+ (19): 25.1%, A+/AA (20): 20.5%, AA (21): 25.2%
John Lannan - A- (20): 13.9%, A (21): 18.6%, A+/AA/AAA (22): 15.0%

Continue reading this post »

After Tom got us started with 50-46 and hugo continued the list with 45-41, it's now my turn to get you informed on numbers 40 through 36 on our long list of Jays prospects.

40. Daniel Barnes, RHP - Barnes was a relief pitcher with the Lansing Lugnuts last season, where he was incredibly dominant. He held opponents to a ridiculous .225 OBP (I didn't count intentional walks), while striking out 39.5% of the batters in relief. I looked for pitchers in the recent (2006-2011) history of the Midwest league with similar numbers, and I could only find a few pitchers who were too old for the league. Barnes, a college draftee, was also relatively old for the league at 21, but not old enough for us to ignore his outrageous dominance. He was briefly tried as a starter, but in his two tries Barnes gave up too many hits, though the rest of his numbers were fine in that small sample. He could get another chance next year, and he should start the year at Dunedin while looking to move to New Hampshire before the season ends.

39. Mike McDade, 1B - Mike McDade is a switch-hitter who is often praised for his defense at first. Unfortunately, that's not a premium defensive position, so he will have to hit well to provide value in the big leagues. While he got off to a flying start this past season, he then had a knee injury which did seem to affect his numbers, as he was very unimpressive in both July and August. McDade did win the Eastern League Home Run Derby, and he does have some power, but his walk rate is not promising at all. McDade did cut down on the strikeouts in 2011, but he'll have to improve his overall performance at the plate to become a decent first baseman.

38. Eric Arce, 1B - Eric Arce is an intriguing one: he was drafted by the Jays in 2010 but decided to go to college, then changed his mind about the whole college thing to get drafted again, and the Jays landed him with their second try. Arce is quite diminutive for a first baseman, but he's got some real power. It helped him become the Gulf Coast League's best hitter (100+ PA, age <20) with a line of .268/.437/.621. He had a relatively low BABIP, because he hit almost every ball into the air, and that will be something to watch for as he moves up to tougher leagues, where trying to hit every ball out might not work as well. Arce's debut was promising, but he has a long way to go.

Continue reading this post »

As Blue Jays fans we're very familiar with the story of one Jose Bautista, who at age 29 suddenly became an elite baseball player after years of filling the role of mediocre (at best) utility player. In many this raised the questions "can this happen again?" and "if this can happen again, who are good candidates to make such drastic improvements late in their careers?". Many were also skeptical about the sustainability of Bautista's breakthrough and about the sustainability of breakthroughs like his in general, dismissing it as a fluke. With the 2011 season Bautista just had, the group of skeptics has decreased in number sharply, but that doesn't mean we should expect Bautista-like breakthroughs from similarly aged players to happen with any kind of regularity. He's a special kid, Jose is.

But, haven't we already seen somewhat similar late-career breakthroughs by Alex Gordon and Jacoby Ellsbury? I say somewhat similar in that both were a bit younger than Bautista at the time of their elite seasons, and because they were also more highly regarded than Bautista was at the time of his breakout. The guy I want to discuss here is more similar to Bautista in that, while he was well-regarded as a prospect, he was not expected to be good, much less one of the best in baseball at his position. The fact that Brandon McCarthy's position is on the mound, as a starting pitcher, should not hurt the comparison with Bautista, I think. The two have another important thing in common, which is contract status. McCarthy has only one season left before he hits free agency, leaving Billy Beane in the same situation Alex Anthopoulos was in a year ago: should he believe the season was a fluke or should he believe that McCarthy is now actually elite and offer him a sizable extension?

Continue reading this post »

Ladies and gentlemen, let me wish you a Happy New Year from my mother's basement my room here in the Netherlands, where there's no snow or cold, but a lot of litter from all the fireworks. There's an interesting anecdote about the laws regarding fireworks in this country: fireworks are allowed after 10:00 AM on December the 31st, but apparently the intention was to only allow it after 10:00 PM. Whoops. Now, the country is split between those terrorizing the street with fireworks all day long, and those too scared to go out. In the neighborhood where I work, which is not a bad neighbourhood at all, even the policemen seemed scared to approach local fireworks abusers.

But you, the Bluebird Banter readership, don't come here for idle talk about foreign peculiarities. No, you've been coming here for Jays news and discussion, and boy, did we have some year doing just that! There was the Bautista contract and his subsequent monster year, the Vernon Wells trade, a new manager in John Farrell, the saga of Brett Lawrie, the MLB first-year player draft, the Colby Rasmus trade and the reported acquisition that did not happen (Yu), among other things that sparked a lot of discussion around here. So much in fact, that Bluebird Banter set not just a new record, but almost doubled the record number of visits in a month from 2010. To show you how much the blog has grown in number of visits, I've created a visual representation of the growth by plotting the peak months for all AL East SBNation blogs for the 2009-2011 period:

Yes, we're the light blue dots. The orange is of course Camden Chat, the dark blue is DRaysBay, the red is Over the Monster and the white is Pinstripe Alley. The horizontal lines represent 50k, 100k, 150k, 200k and 250k visitors in a month. As you can see, Bluebird Banter has gone from the most unimpressive peak month in the AL East in 2009 to the record holder in terms of peak month in 2011. While August was impressive at 252k visitors, December's 266k showed us that the blog's readership just keeps growing. It will be hard to reach the levels of Lone Star Ball and Lookout Landing, the top AL blogs in the SBNation network, but third in the AL is already pretty impressive. I'd say Tom's trip to Jamaica has been a very well-deserved holiday indeed.

Of course, this kind of growth wouldn't have been possible without the vigilance of our mods, or the great contributions from all the people who come here to share their thoughts. We've got a great membership, happy 2012 to all of you!

Although there are many repertoires among starting pitchers in Major League Baseball, one aspect remains a constant among them, and that is the presence of some form of fastball. The fastball is the pitch that sets up all other pitches by virtue of contrast in velocity and movement. A curveball would become much easier to hit if the hitter knows he doesn't have to deal with a fastball: he can just sit back and let the pitch come to him. The same goes for the changeup. The vertical and horizontal movement of a slider (or cutter) are much less impressive if they're not contrasted with a fastball that has spin carrying it in the opposite direction.

So it seems that any good pitcher in the majors needs to at least have a good fastball, because otherwise, hitters could just try to ignore the other pitches and hit the bad fastball, right? Depending on your definition of a good fastball, it doesn't seem to be that accurate. There are some pitchers out there who succeed, despite throwing a fastball that gets hit hard. And since I find those pitchers fascinating, I decided to write a piece about (some of) them.

Bronson Arroyo

Bronson Arroyo is a fascinating pitcher for various reasons. One: his incredibly high leg kick. Two: his low career BABIP (.282). Three: the variety of pitches he seems to throw and the year-to-year difference in what Bronson seems to throw (I can't make heads or tails of his PitchF/x data), and four: the big difference in quality between his fastballs and his breaking balls. While it's kind of hard to determine what Arroyo throws exactly, he definitely throws a sinker and a four-seamer, possibly a cutter, one or two kinds of (split?)changeup, two variations of a curveball, and possibly a pitch that is somewhere between a splitter and a slider. None of those pitches are whiff-machines, but the curve/slider(s) combination is highly rated by Fangraphs' pitch values.

Arroyo's fastball has average approximately 88 miles per hour over his career, but dropped to 87 in 2011, coinciding with a sharp decline in effectiveness, mostly due to a very large number of home runs given up. He's thrown the fastball (sinker and four-seam combined) about 45% of the time, but only 39% in 2010, which was interestingly also the one season it ranked as a positive by Fangraphs' pitch values. In that year, his four-seam fastball had a contact% four percent lower than in 2011, and a much lower groundball rate (probably positive for a four-seamer) as well. Overall, his fastball has a contact rate that fluctuates between 87 and 92 percent, while throwing his fastball for strikes in the 62-63% range (64.5 is league average).

Continue reading this post »

The Narrative

In June 2005, Ricky Romero was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays, and the world was not shocked. Despite the fact that Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin and Mike Pelfrey were more highly rated by at least a portion of the experts, J.P. Ricciardi drafted Romero. And because Ricciardi's drafting preferences were well known to the public, most had seen this coming for a pretty long time. There were a few who cried out against the pick, clamoring for a highly rated shortstop or a toolsy outfielder, but the majority accepted the selection and was hoping for the best. J.P. Ricciardi even went on record to compare Romero to Johan Santana "without the changeup". Which, if you consider how import Santana's changeup is to him, is not really that impressive.

The young "Santana-like-but-not-quite" pitcher got off to a decent start with high-A Dunedin, getting decent but unspectacular strikeout and groundball numbers. But then the, still relatively young, former Cal State Fullerton standout hit a wall with Double-A New Hampshire. In 2006, he had a 5.09 ERA over there, and in 2007 this only slightly improved to 4.89. With mr.Tulowitzki already playing great baseball in Colorado, it seemed as though Romero would forever be "he who was not Tulowitzki". But after more struggles in New Hampshire in 2008, Romero was given a promotion to Syracuse and promptly got a lot better results. And in Spring Training the next year, Romero was, perhaps surprisingly, the winner of a rotation spot. Since then, Ricky has improved each year to put himself firmly atop the Blue Jays rotation for the foreseeable future.

The Numbers

After joining the big club in 2009, Romero immediately put up an ERA below league average. The lefty sported an excellent groundball rate, a decent strikeout rate but a slightly worrisome walk rate. Romero was almost average at finding the strikezone, and hitters were making contact well below average, but hitters weren't biting on pitches out of the zone much. While PitchF/x and BIS data disagree on the hitters' discipline in 2010, there's no indication they were more aggressive that year. What they did do was make more more contact, and yet Romero's strikeout rate and ERA both improved.

In 2011, hitters swung at more pitches against Ricky, and Ricky happily profited from that by throwing more pitches out of the strikezone, and his contact rate dropped again. However, his strikeout rate also dropped ever so slightly, along with his walk rate. Along with an increase in home runs allowed, Romero's advanced stats do not agree with the massive improvement in ERA that came with his 2011 campaign. But with batters hitting just 14% line drives off Romero, we might see them swing harder and strikeout more if they try to make better contact. For what it's worth, DRS thinks highly of Romero's defense on the mound, both in limiting stolen bases and fielding his position. I think we, the fans, would agree with that based on what we've seen.

Continue reading this post »

Yesterday saw the Jays trade for Ben Francisco in a very minor trade for some outfield depth. However, it did spark more intensive discussion about a possible Gio Gonzalez trade. At the same time we're hoping to win the Yu Darvish bidding, while our team has not yet been ruled out of the Fielder sweepstakes completely. All very exciting, but would it be wise for AA to "open the window of contention" right now? The advantages of waiting another year are that D'Arnaud, Gose and Hechevarria are given another year to develop, and that the club can get a better sense of what it has in Lawrie, Thames, Snider, Alvarez and possibly Hutchison/McGuire at the big league level. Disadvantages are that the club would "waste" another season of Bautista and the one year of control they have over Kelly Johnson. Brandon Morrow is also only under control for two more seasons.

So, how good is this team going to be next season with no further additions? Will it be close enough to compete? My methodology here will be to project the WAR for each player and add that up, and then compare it with the other teams in the AL East and the Angels/Rangers. Simplistic? Yes, that's exactly what I'm aiming for. I should note that Pikachu did a similar projection in a Fanpost, which can be found here, but while I'm using the same spreadsheet, I'm not going to agree with Pikachu on every player. I'm using the 2011 American League average wOBA of .324 and American League average ERA of 4.08.

The Hitters

What does it all add up to? 24 WAR. That's a 2.7 WAR improvement over last year's team. Does that seem pessimistic? Well, I was somewhat cautious with the number of PAs our regulars will receive, but the expected regression from Bautista hurts, as does the absence of Jose Molina. If the Jays would sign Fielder, you could optimistically go to 27 projected WAR from position players. But that's still well short of the Rays (31.6), Red Sox (39.2), Rangers (38.9) and Yankees (36.2) in 2011.

Continue reading this post »

Kelly Johnson re-signing with the Jays got me thinking about the Jays' ability to hit fastballs, and of course their relative inability to hit non-fastball pitches. Is there something to this thought of mine that the Jays have a lot of fastball-minded batters or is it nonsense? To find out, I thought I'd take a look at some stats. Specifically, pitch values. For those new to the subject: pitch values give an indication how good a batter is against a certain pitch, but because they are heavily influenced by luck, they only work well when used in large sample sizes.

To find out how common it is to be good at hitting a certain pitch, I took a look at the 246 hitters who have had at least 1500 Plate Appearances (PA) in the 2007-2011 period (that's 300 PA per season):

The Median Pitch Value is Value/Count, so it is not dependent on how often the batter got a chance to hit that pitch. It is supposed to indicate how many runs above average a hitter will create per 100 pitches of that type.

Things of note:

• Every team is likely to have good fastball hitters, as they are just more common. This does make some sense: if you can't hit a fastball you'll be gone from the major league team pretty soon. All major league pitchers have fastballs (and most of them are major league worthy fastballs), so they can expose that weakness more often than they can expose other weaknesses.

• The slider is the toughest pitch to hit in the MLB. This also makes sense: a major league pitcher will only throw a slider if that's a good pitch for him, he won't throw it if it's bad one. But in the case of a fastball, a pitcher will throw it out of necessity rather than because of the quality of the pitch.

• The group of hitters that can hit curveballs well is slightly larger than the group of hitters that can hit changeups, but the difference isn't that big. Are pitchers throwing curveballs out of necessity, for example to have a second pitch against opposite-handed batters, rather than because the pitch is good?

• Since I'm looking at the data now, anyway, here are some of the most extreme fastball hitters: Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran, Victor Martinez and Evan Longoria.

After the break, I'll take a look at the 2012 Blue Jays and how they compare to the rest of the league.

Continue reading this post »

Update: please go to Twinkie Town for a correct and updated draft order tracker

The 2012 draft class may be described as weak compared to the 2011 class, but apparently the High School crop is better than last year's. And very deep, too, which means that AA will have plenty of possible high school picks with upside to choose from with those extra draft picks that the last year of Elias Rankings-based compensation brings us.

Note: because of the modified type-A free agents, there is more uncertainty in the draft order than ever. For example, Kelly Johnson signing with the Astros would mean he gets the Jays a second round pick, but if he signs with the Tigers they get a first round pick in front of the Tigers' pick, meaning every pick beyond the 26th has moved down one spot. Because there are 5 of these modified type As remaining (Bell has signed), the current number 26 pick (for example) could be just number 26, but it could also be all the way down to number 31. Only the 1-15 picks and the picks that are compensation for unsigned 2010 picks are locked in place.

I won't list the extra picks caused by modified type As because we don't know where they'll end up, but keep in mind that they're there. A * denotes a compensation pick for an unsigned 2010 pick (btw, these are no longer unprotected in the 2012 draft). Italics mean a player has not yet signed elsewhere, so the pick is not certain, while picks that didn't come to be, due to a player staying with his club, are listed with a strikethrough. Jays picks are in bold, with the variation in possible position in brackets.

-----First Round-----
1. Houston Astros
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Chicago Cubs
7. San Diego Padres
8. Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Miami Marlins
10. Colorado Rockies
11. Oakland Athletics
12. New York Mets
13. Chicago White Sox
14. Cincinnati Reds
15. Cleveland Indians
16. Washington Nationals
17. Toronto Blue Jays (17-18)
18. Los Angeles Dodgers
19. Los Angeles Angels
20. San Francisco Giants
21. Atlanta Braves
22. Toronto Blue Jays* (22)
23. St. Louis Cardinals
24. Boston Red Sox
25. Tampa Bay Rays
26. Arizona Diamondbacks
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Milwaukee Brewers
29. Texas Rangers
30. New York Yankees
31. Boston Red Sox (from Phillies)

Continue reading this post »

As I promised in my previous article, I'm going to write about who could potentially develop into a nice reliever for the Blue Jays. Obviously, guys like Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire, Justin Nicolino, Noah Syndergaard, Daniel Norris and other highly rated pitching prospects could eventually slot into the bullpen if they're perceived to have more value there, but they're currently on track for the starting rotation, and not the bullpen, so I won't list them here.

Luis Perez

He's already made the majors, but he's not getting much love (yet). I think he can be a good to great left-handed reliever for the Jays. However, that will only happen if they maximize his appearances versus lefties. You see, Perez is a sinker/slider guy. His stuff is pretty good, but he doesn't have a weapon against right-handed batters, which is why his numbers in the minors were never exciting. Both minor league and major league splits tell the story of Perez being very good against left-handed batters, yet the Jays let Perez face 178 right-handed bats and only 116 left-handers. Once Villanueva is back in the pen, he should be the Jays' main long man, as he doesn't have significant splits, and Perez does. He might not keep it up, but Perez versus lefties in the MLB so far: 25% Ks, 4.3% BBs, 71.6% GBs. If that isn't dominant..

Joel Carreno

This one doesn't need much explaining. He struck out a dominant 27% of the hitters in Double-A as a starter, but had control problems and didn't get deep into games. Is also a sinker/slider guy, but his minor league splits paint an unclear picture: he had a big platoon split in Lansing, but a reverse split in Dunedin, then back to a significant split in New Hampshire. He's probably better against righties, but hopefully not too bad versus lefties to worry too much about his use. With his dominant stuff, he's the prime non-Janssen candidate to fill the closer role that some people seem so eager to fill. Looked good in his brief time as a reliever in the majors.

Chad Beck

Beck's numbers from the minors do not stand out, but he's a guy who got some good reports written about him. It's easy to point out what's likeable about him: he throws hard. He faced only 8 batters in his brief time in the majors, averaging 95 mph with the fastball. He's an outsider candidate to become a good reliever, but as a reliever he won't have to worry much about his secondary stuff and he can just use his fastball to blow hitters away. Had big splits this year, but not in 2010.

Kyle Drabek

I'm not an advocate of putting Drabek in the bullpen. He should be given the chance to put it together as a starter first, even if it means another year in Vegas. If his options run out and no club is willing to give up value to acquire Drabek, I could see a scenario where he flourishes in the bullpen, but I do not feel that it is the best way to 'fix' him.

Andrew Carpenter

Pitched just 14 2/3 innings for the Phillies/Padres this year, putting up a 7.98 ERA, even though his xFIP was 3.56. Averaged 90.4 mph with the fastball, also throws a changeup and a slider. Everything points to his fastball being the weak link, his offspeed pitches both got plenty of whiffs. He struggled to throw strikes, especially with the fastball. Back when he was a starter, his numbers were quite comparable to those of Chad Beck. However, I expect Beck to be better. Carpenter reminds me of Jesse Litsch and Carlos Villanueva, who will almost definitely be in the bullpen.

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If I see one more rumor about the Jays' need for a closer, I will go...never mind, I'm already crazy. But seriously, the Jays do not have a strong need for a closer. Is Alex Anthopoulos likely trying to upgrade the bullpen? Yes, I'd say he is. But that's because he's always trying to upgrade every single part of the team. Okay, he's not likely actively searching for a right fielder, third baseman, shortstop or catcher, but he is always trying to find valuable players who he can get for less than what he perceives those players are worth. I very much doubt he's looking for a closer, or even worse, a "proven" closer. Yes, he traded for Frank Francisco and signed Jon Rauch, but that was all about acquiring draft picks. Without those draft picks (and the Elias System which valued Saves), AA is likely to place less value on relievers.

'Proven' closers are rare

Actually, there's just one in baseball at the moment that I can think of. Yes, Mariano Rivera. Are the Jays going to acquire him? Nope. What about Francisco Rodriguez? Off the field problems, and besides, he had a negative WPA as recently as 2009. Jonathan Papelbon has already been signed, and his performances have fluctuated enough that I would hesitate to call him 'proven'. Francisco Cordero is available, but his 2010 was even more unworthy of a closer than K-Rod's 2009. Is Andrew Bailey 'proven' after just three seasons in the role, two of which were significantly shortened by injury? Come now, calling Bailey 'proven' is simply admitting that the grass is always greener on the other side. Billy Wagner has retired. Joe Nathan has been injured (and already signed). Joakim Soria is coming off a down year, whereas 'down year' would be an understatement to describe Rafael Soriano's season. Heath Bell's strikeout rated dropped off a cliff, he's old, and he's pitching in spacious PETCO Park in the weak NL West. In short, the margin of reliability (which is what I assume people mean with 'proven') between the possible closers out there and, say, Casey Janssen is slim. And Casey Janssen is already with the club. If AA can bring in Andrew Bailey for spare parts, sure, but is Billy Beane a stupid man? I think not.

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History

At 21 years and 6 months old, Shaun Michal Marcum was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2003 MLB amateur draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. He had previously pitched for Missouri State University, where he was acting as closer and had a 11.25 K/9 and 2.45 ERA, though in just 44 innings. After signing he dominated in short-season ball, still as a closer, but he was old for the league. In 2004 Marcum did well in both the Sally league (low-A) and the FSL (high-A), with more than a strikeout per inning and spectacular walk rates, but in 2005 his strikeout rates slipped and in 18 triple-A games Marcum's ERA was all the way up to 4.95. In 2006 he was shuttled back and forth between Syracuse and Toronto, and also shifted between the roles of reliever and starter, before he finally got a more permanent job as a starter for Toronto. With a 5.06 ERA and no indication that Marcum had had bad luck, his first season was not very good. However, in 2007 he cut down on the walks and got more grounders, resulting in a decent 4.13 ERA.

2008 would be both a lucky and an unlucky season for Marcum. While he increased his strikeout rate, got more grounders, and had a very low BABIP which helped him to a 3.39 ERA, he ended the season injured and had to undergo Tommy John surgery. The 2009 season was lost on Marcum, but he came back strong in 2010, pitching to a 3.64 ERA and setting career highs in strikeout rate and walk rate. After the season he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Brett Lawrie. Marcum would continue his progress from the 2010 season in 2011, though you could argue that considering the down year for offense and the weaker league he actually had a less impressive season. Nevertheless, Marcum took the Brewers into the postseason with a 3.56 ERA, but in that postseason he would be blown to bits by the opposition to the tune of a 14.90 ERA and just 9 1/3 innings pitched over three starts.

Pitch Repertoire

(the y-axis is vertical movement compared to a spinless thrown ball, the x-axis is horizontal movement)

Marcum has a fairly average fastball in terms of movement, but his fastball velocity is very unusual: his average fastball is approximately 87 mph fast, with his sinker coming approximately 0.4 mph slower. His cutter comes in around 3-4 mph slower than the fastball, reason enough to assume that it is indeed a cutter and not a tight slider. However, the group of cutters can be split into a group of faster and a group of slower cutters, which may indicate the existence of a second "changeup" which mimicks the cutter's movement but comes in slower. Regardless of whether it is one pitch or two pitches, it has impressive horizontal movement away from right-handed batters and more downward movement than his sinker. Where most changeups seem to move like sinkers, Marcum's change actually has a lot more downward movement than the sinker, while not moving as much horizontally (in on righties). The change usually comes in at ~81 mph, but it was noticeably slower/more inconsistent in velocity last year, at just 79. The curveball also experienced a velocity drop, from 74-75 to 71.7 mph on average, making it a very slow curveball, though not especially so if one accounts for Marcum's slow fastball. The movement on Marcum's curve isn't anything special or remarkable.

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Overall spending on the draft will decrease

The slot recommendations will change, as they will be negotiated between MLB and the union (source), but exactly how high the new "limits" on draft spending will be is still unclear. There will probably be no way to keep spending around 15 million dollars on a draft like the Nats, Pirates, Royals etc. did the past year. Yes, teams still could spend money like madmen, but a lot (half) of it would go to the new tax system, and they'd also give up a lot of future first- and second-rounders. Looking at the apparent maximum penalty, which is paying 100% taxes and giving up two future first-round picks, I'm not completely convinced that, depending on how everything plays out, it would not be beneficial to simply accept the penalty and go totally bonkers on draft spending, given that it's still almost pocket change compared to what's spent in the free agent market. That totally depends on how much assumption 1a becomes a reality. I wonder what would happen if a team kept surrendering their top picks, all the way up to (for example) 2050? Would they start to lose second and lower round picks?

Draft picks will probably have to accept lower bonuses

Going to college won't help draftees much, as overall spending has simply decreased, and there's no reason to assume that bonuses for college players will be unaffected. The little leverage draftees had has been reduced to a new low. The ones who still have some leverage are of course the multi-sport athletes, who can simply go play football or basketball. I'm sure some articles will soon be written about it, but I do wonder how large the number of multi-sport athletes who sign with baseball teams every year is, anyway. Since baseball still provides a good chance to get decent money, I think initial reactions about lots of potential quality going to other sports could be a bit exaggerated.

The potential high school draftees who are not multi-sport talents still have plenty of reasons to sign and go pro:

1) High/college picks receive less money because of slotting just like lower round picks do
2) The gap between higher and lower bonuses is less in terms of absolute money
3) Since there is less money in bonuses, it would be advantageous to start a pro career quickly, to get to where the real money is (hit free agency early!)
4) Should the number of players who go to college instead of turning pro increase, it will be harder to perform and stand out with tougher competition, and it becomes more attractive to take the money that's on the table now, instead of gambling on a higher bonus.

The type of players which are drafted probably changes

Let's take the Jays' 2010 draft as an example. Drafting Dickie Joe Thon in the fifth round and giving him 1.5 million dollars is no longer a smart thing to do. Of course, the Jays could have drafted him 34th overall. With 1.5 million equalling the recommended slot for a 10th overall pick, Thon might just have had to accept the fact that he would be unlikely to get that kind of money under this slotting system, and he might have had the sense of reality to accept a slot deal of more than 900,000 dollars. Since Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard were given deals lower than slot, with the hard slotting system they might have been drafted lower than they actually were in 2010. Now, the Jays probably simply draft the "Sanchez-type" and let the "Thon-type" be delusional about his qualities. A larger portion of talented players probably will not be drafted/signed because their opinions of themselves do not match those of the MLB teams' scouts. The type of player who will sign for below slot could very well be more in demand than previously.

The relative value of a draft pick goes up

By adding a draft pick, you add to your total slot and so to the total amount of money you can spend on the draft. And since spending money on the draft is more efficient than spending it elsewhere (free agency), that is a good thing. However, extra draft picks are not as easy to acquire anymore...

Draft picks will be provided by players who are actually good, not by Miguel Olivo or the like

Because teams will need to offer about 12.5 million to free agents to get compensation, relievers are done giving teams draft picks. I like this change a lot, even if it does prevent AA from gaming the system like he used to do. Players on the Jays who would probably exceed 12.5 million in value: Jose Bautista (duh), Yunel Escobar, Brett Lawrie, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow (assuming FIP works for him) and possibly Henderson Alvarez and Kelly Johnson. These kind of players, the solid regulars and stars increase somewhat in value, while marginal players the likes of Jose Molina and Jon Rauch decrease in value due to no longer providing extra draft picks to teams.

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History

Chris Carpenter was selected out of high school with the 15th overall pick in the first round of the 1993 MLB Amateur Draft by the Toronto Blue Jays, just eighteen years and one month old. A year later he started his professional career with the Medicine Hat Blue Jays, where he pitched his way to a 2.76 ERA, with solid strikeout numbers but a somewhat worrying number of free passes given up. Before the 1995 season, he made the bottom end of Baseball America's top 100 prospects as the number 100 of that list. He split 1995 between the Dunedin Blue Jays (High-A) and the Knoxville Smokies at the Double-A level. His ERA was 2.17 in Dunedin, but 5.18 in Knoxville, even though his strikeout numbers were better at the higher level. Despite an increasing walk rate and a decreased strikeout rate, young Carpenter was bumped to number 82 in BA's top 100. He repeated Knoxville in 1996, and he had a 3.94 ERA there. The walks were still increasing in numbers, but Carpenter improved his strikeout rate and Baseball America now ranked him as their #28 prospect.

Carpenter made his MLB debut in 1997, but with a 5.09 ERA over 81 innings his rookie season wasn't very successful. He would spend some time in the Jays' bullpen in 1998, but he was still mostly a starting pitcher, and with a 4.37 ERA one might call this Carpenter's breakthrough season. In 1999 injuries limited his season, and his strikeout rate dropped a bit, but his 4.38 ERA was still decent and he walked slightly fewer batters. The next year he struggled, pitching to a horrible 6.26 ERA, and spending some time in the bullpen again. 2001 would prove to be his only full year as a starter with the Blue Jays, and his 4.09 ERA that year was the best he would produce in a Jays' uniform. In 2002 Carpenter has shoulder problems, and he managed only 73 innings, with a 5.28 ERA, and he would have shoulder surgery that september. The Blue Jays only offered him a minor league deal after removing him from their 40-man roster, an offer which Carpenter would not accept.

Instead, Carpenter's career continued with the Cardinals, and although the Cards had to wait until 2004 to see Carpenter start, he would then turn in three great seasons with ERAs of 3.41, 2.83 and 3.09 and much higher strikeout numbers than in his days with the Blue Jays. The 2005 season also earned him a Cy Young award. Injury problems struck again, though, and Carpenter would miss almost all of 2007 and 2008 with elbow problems. But Carpenter again came back strongly, registering a 2.24 ERA in 2009 and won the National League Comeback Player of the Year award. His 2010 and 2011 season were not on the same level of brilliance, but with ERAs of 3.22 and 3.45, Carpenter, now 36, withstood the effects of age pretty well, or perhaps he did not feel them at all? Of course, he also pitched and won that last game of the season, playing a big part in the Cardinals' 2011 World Series victory, so there's that.

(interesting stuff behind the jump)

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