A little over a year ago, I was fed up with all the hype over Jacoby Ellsbury.  He hadn't even been better than Brett Gardner at that point in both their careers, yet Ellsbury was the player constantly being talked about on ESPN and other media outlets.  I wrote this fanpost voicing my arguments against him, not to OTM in particular, but more of as a post towards Red Sox fans in general.

Well, I was wrong.  Ellsbury really emerged this year as a star.  I will admit, I didn't see it coming.  The power outburst from him was incredible.  His ISO went from .114 in 2008 and 2009 (we'll omit his injury shortened 2010) to .230 this year.  Better yet, he wasn't aided by unnaturally high BABIP or HR/FB rates, so this might be the real deal.

I know your season didn't exactly end as you would have liked it, but at the very least I think you have something to look forward to with Ellsbury.  See you next year.

My original idea for a fanpost had to do with Curtis Granderson and the possibility of him reaching an 8 WAR season this year. He's currently at 7, so he would need to get hot and see a rise in his UZR over the last two weeks to make it happen.  I decided to search through fangraphs and find the list of Yankee players who have achieved the 8 win season.  What I found is that it has been done 39 times before.  The usual suspects, Mantle, DiMaggio, Gehrig, and Ruth account for 29 of those occurrences.

Besides those 4 players, only 2 other Yankees have managed to do this twice.  One is Arod, in 2005 and 2007.  Trivia question:  Who is the only other Yankee to have two 8+ WAR seasons?  Is it Yogi Berra?  Nope, he never reached 8 wins.  Rickey Henderson?  No, he only did it once as a Yankee.  Don Mattingly?  No, he never had an 8 win season. 

Answer:  Snuffy Stirnweiss.  I'm guessing that 99% of people reading this right now, even Yankee fans, are thinking, "Who the F is that?"  Snuffy was born in 1918 in New York City as George Henry Stirnweiss.  He played football for UNC-Chapel Hill as a halfback, and was actually drafted into the NFL in 1940, but decided to play baseball for the Yankees instead. 

Snuffy made his major league debut in 1943.  A second baseman, he wasn't overly impressive in his first year, putting up a wRC+ of just 85.  His next two seasons, however, would be legendary.  During the 1944 and 1945 seasons, Snuffy put up a combined WAR of 18 wins.  His wRC+ in both of those years was a sparkling 150, which combined with great defensive play made him the most valuable player in baseball over that two year period.

A interesting story I found on his wikipedia entry is about his batting title in 1945.  Going into the last day of the season, he was trailing Tony Cuccinello, whose final game had been rained out. Stirnweiss singled in his first two at-bats, so the press box called down to tell the team that he had passed Cuccinello, and should sit out the rest of the game to ensure he won.  Snuffy refused to leave the game, however, and went 0-2 in his next two at-bats.  In his final at-bat, he hit another single, bringing his season average to .309.  It was later discovered that the press box had been wrong, and he would have lost the batting title if not for the final 1 for 3 in his last 3 at-bats of the game.

Snuffy was never able to rekindle the magic of those two seasons afterwards, putting up just 10.9 WAR over his final 7 seasons before retiring in 1952.  Now, it should be mentioned that the replacement level was lower in 1944 and 1945, as some players had gone to the war, so that accounts for some of his drop-off.

Sadly, this story does not have a happy ending, as Snuffy was killed at the age of 39 when a passenger train he was riding derailed off of a bridge in New Jersey in 1958.  This is considered one of the worst railroad disasters in US history, as 48 people died.

So today, as we laud the accomplishments of Curtis Granderson, and marvel at the ability of our current second baseman, Robinson Cano, let's also remember a former hero who played second base for our Yankees, Snuffy Stirnweiss.

There are several things wrong with what this guy says.  Just in case the article gets taken down from PSA or something, here's the original: http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2011/09/06/is-war-the-new-rbi/

UZR and flyball rates

UZR is a counting stat, of sorts, so it is true that outfielders with more opportunities have a chance to pad their UZR more.  However, bad fielding outfielders will see their UZR get even worse with more opportunity, so this conjecture is completely wrong.  Even if a team's pitchers had 99% groundball rates, that wouldn't cause their outfielders to have a negative UZR.  If they had great outfielders, they would still most likely have a positive UZR, it just wouldn't be as large a number as it should.

The author tries to justify this by saying that a couple messed up plays is the cause of this, but then unknowingly destroys this theory by showing that it is a systematic shift.  A couple missed plays that cause good fielders to have negative UZR would be a random shift.  The fact that it is a systematic shift says something else.  Maybe GMs know that they have extreme flyball pitchers, so they look for good fielding outfielders?  Or maybe they know they have extreme groundball pitchers, so they aren't afraid to put a lumbering power hitter in right field.

Basically, lack of opportunity will not systematically make good outfielders see negative UZRs, nor would more opportunity make bad outfielders have positive UZR.

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We did a list of these, mostly in jest, for Cervelli last year, so I thought it would be fun to make a list for Montero, now that he has joined the team.  If I go to a game this year, I might make signs out of some of these (I'm a nerd, I know).  Here's what I've got so far, I'll add good ones you guys post as well:

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I started writing this as a comment to the recent article about Granderson's MVP chances, and it just got too long, so I figured I should make a separate fanpost.

I think it's time for the voting guidelines to be more defined.  Forget anything about having to be on a playoff team, the award should be for the best all-around position player in the league.  WAR is the best all-around value stat out there right now, and we've seen that the league winners in WAR are not always winning the MVP, as they should.

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For those of you following Yankee news, it's recently been hinted at by Joe Girardi that Nova will keep his spot in the rotation.  I think most of us here will agree that he has certainly earned it.  At the beginning of the year, the consensus on this site was to expect about a 4.5 ERA from Nova.  The season isn't over yet, but he has definitely exceeded my expectations of him so far.  His 3.85 ERA is good for fourth best among our starters.  Since May 1st, he has an excellent 3.38 ERA.  His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all 4th best on the team, and his tERA is 3rd best.  My point is that he has definitely been one of our 5 best pitchers, as Girardi said.

So this leaves us with two guys, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes.  There is a lot of A.J. hate out there, but let's be honest here, A.J. at his best is the second best pitcher on this team.  The problem is that we haven't seen A.J. at his best often enough over the last two years.  There have been several games this year that I can recall off the top of my head where he has dominated for like 5 or 6 innings, and then imploded in his final inning, making his final box score look not-so-great.  A great example of this is his last game, where he shutout the Angels for 5 innings, then gave up 4 runs in the sixth.  Granted, it wasn't entirely his fault since the intentional walk to Izturis was one of the dumbest calls I've seen made all year, but A.J. did walk a batter in front and behind Izturis as well.  In other games, A.J. dominates except for a couple pitches that get jumped on by the opposition.  An example of this was his game against the Orioles where he went 8 innings and struck out 10 while only walking 2, but allowed 4 ER on 2 HR.

Now let's talk about Hughes.  Hughes' overall ERA is a 7.11, but since returning from the DL it is a 4.55.  However, he's only really had one bad start since returning.  If you exclude that start, he has averaged 5.75 innings per start at a 2.35 ERA.  The problem to keep in mind is that this is only 4 starts, so we're dealing with small sample sizes.  Taking A.J. out of the rotation has all kinds of ramifications, including his 16MM salary, plus risking really damaging his confidence for the future (remember: he's under contract for 2 more years).  So, as of right now, it looks like Phil Hughes could be the odd man out, looking at a late season trip to the bullpen for the playoffs.

But here's a conundrum:  What if on Hughes' last start against the Rays, he picks up where he left off in Chicago and throws a fantastic game?  Keep in mind, the guy was pretty good last year before he started to get tired at the end of the year.  If he shows that he is truly back, can you justify taking him out of the rotation either? 

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So, I'm sitting here watching MLB Network, and Harold Reynolds, in all his wisdom, declared that if the Yankees don't add another starter, they will not advance in the playoffs.  O RLY?  So our starting pitching is completely unstable, huh?  Here's an interesting fact:  The Yankees are 7th in baseball in starter WAR.  Ahead of us are the Phillies (big surprise), Angels, White Sox, Giants, Mariners, and Rangers.  Only one of the Angels and Rangers will make the playoffs, so that eliminates one.  The Mariners definitely won't make it, so there's another.  The White Sox could make it, but I really think it will be Detroit out of the Central. 

The Angels have a formidable 1-2 punch with Weaver and Haren, but they don't have a good offense, so they don't really scare me.  The same is true of the Giants and Phillies.  Neither team has a very good offense, even taking into account their recent moves.  The only team that would give me pause is the Rangers, who have the 6th best starter WAR, and are tied with us for 2nd in team wRC+. 

So, basically what I'm saying is that we don't need to add a starting pitcher to have an excellent chance in the playoffs.  Now, I'm not against us improving, but it should not be Jimenez, as some people are suggesting.  First of all, let's look at what the Rockies want for him.

The Rockies are marketing Jimenez as an ace.  The latest rumors are that they are asking the Yankees for Nova and 2 of Montero, Betances, or Banuelos.  That's 2 premium prospects and a major league ready starter.  Is he really worth that?  How good is he, truly?

The following are some pitchers with comparable stats to him over the last 3 years:

SIERA:  Yovanni Gallardo, Hiroki Kuroda, CJ Wilson, Ryan Dempster
tERA:  Gio Gonzalez, Wandy Rodriguez, Joel Pineiro, Francisco Liriano
FIP-: Adam Wainwright, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez
xFIP-: Wandy Rodriguez, Gavin Floyd, Hiroki Kuroda, CJ Wilson

In your head right now should be playing the song "One of these things is not like the other."  Jimenez benefited from a very low HR/FB rate last year, and over the past few years it has been below the average level of 10.6%.  Some pitchers do show the ability to keep their HR rates lower, but his 8.9% rate this year is a more likely true talent level than the 5.1% from last year.  So, what I'm saying is that I think the SIERA, tERA, and xFIP- comparables are probably closer to reality than FIP-. 

Three pitchers we see multiple times on those lists are Hiroki Kuroda, CJ Wilson, and Wandy Rodriguez.  What type of pitchers are these?  Are these aces?  I would say no.  These three are good 2s, in my opinion.  Is a #2 pitcher worth 2 premium prospects and a current 4ish starter?  HELL NO.  First of all, we will need Montero.  We already do right now, to be honest.  Next year, Posada will be gone, and we will need either a catcher or DH.  Montero can fill either of those spots for the next 6 years.  Banuelos should be equally untouchable.  A potential ace LHP would be perfect for Yankee Stadium. 

A swap of Betances for Jimenez would be similar to the Granderson/AJAX trade, trading a prospect for what he projects to turn into (although Granderson has turned out to be better than everyone thought).  If Betances ends up becoming an ace and Nova becomes a good mid-rotation starter, we will get hosed by trading just the 2 of them, let alone 3 of the premium 'spects.  So.... yeah...  unless the trade is for only one of Betances or Nova with some lesser prospects, the Yankees would be wise to stick with what we have.

If you have been watching a certain 4-letter network lately, you might have heard that Adrian Gonzalez is the runaway MVP at this point in the season.  Is he really, though?  I believe there is a strong case to be made for our own Curtis Granderson.

First of all, the best player in the AL so far has been Jose Bautista, no question.  However, the reluctance of voters to vote for a guy on a non-playoff team is well documented.  Toronto is currently 4th in the division, so while Bautista might be the best player, a large amount of voters would not vote for him based on that (which I personally think is really stupid).

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Well, 81 games are done, and we find ourselves 3 games up in the loss column over the Red Sox.  Let's be honest, if someone told you at the beginning of the year that Phil Hughes would be DL'd almost the entire first half, that Derek Jeter would continue to decline, that Jorge Posada would play so poorly that people discussed cutting him, that Soriano would miss almost the entire first half, that Joba would have his season end with TJ surgery, and that Nick Swisher would only have 3 HR through the first 2 months of the season, would you have thought we'd be where we are right now?  The team has been saved by the likes of Bartolo Colon, David Robertson, Curtis Granderson, and Freddie Garcia's insane BABIP luck.  The following are my team awards for the first half.

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Dear Joe Girardi,

STOP F*CKING BUNTING.

                       Sincerely,
                       Pinstripe Alley

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So, the season is now 1/8th of the way through, which is a good point to stop and look at what we've done so far.  Most of the stats I quote won't be including the game earlier today, because they haven't been posted to Fangraphs yet.

First off, we are 15-9, in first place in the AL East with a 3 game lead, and 6 games ahead of our most likely competition, the Red Sox (all in the loss column, of course).  I think if you asked any of us at the beginning of the year if we'd be ok with being 6 games ahead of the Red Sox after 24 games, we'd say something to the effect of, "F**K YEAH!"  Despite whatever flaws this team has, which I'll get to in a minute, we've had success.  Now, let's get to the specifics.

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Hello, I had a great idea and woendered y no1 had said this before.  Why not make a trade for Troy Tulowitski?  He is a good player, so he should be on the Yankees.  He would make a great DH for us and really help the offense.  I wouldnt have him start at SS because Jeter is a Gold Glover, which means he a great defender, besides Jeter has a higher career batting average.  The Rockies should be willing to trade him bcause we are the Yankees and we want him.  I was able to do this trade on MLB 2011 the Show for joba chamberlain, ramiro pena, and austin romaine, so that should be enough to get it done.  Make this happen Cashman!  You have to redeam yourself after you let austin jackson and his amazing batting average go last year!

#NotIntededToBeAFactualFanPost

That is Slumpy, Struggly, Brett Gardner.  So, what's up with Brett?  Let's see if we can figure it out.

First of all, pitchers have figured out that Brett doesn't swing much.  His zone% has risen from 48.3% to 55.1%.  So fact 1:  he's being thrown more strikes. 

Next, his swing% has risen as well, up from 31% last year to 40.4% this year.  Ok, that kind of makes sense since we said before that he's being thrown more strikes.  However, his O-zone% has risen from 18.2% to 24.7%.  So fact 2:  he's swinging at more balls.

Contact rates haven't stabilized yet, but I'll throw out a related stat anyway, 3:  his swinging strike% has risen from 2.9% to 5%.

Finally, and here may be the kicker:  his BABIP is at .182, down from .340 last year.  This is something that should regress to his mean as the season goes on.  Brett is way too fast to keep up a .182 BABIP. 

So here are the facts:

1. Pitchers have adjusted and are throwing him more strikes.
2.  Brett is swinging at more balls, meaning he is probably putting more pitcher's pitches into play, striking out more, and walking less.
3.  His swinging strike rate is up, which is most likely connected to fact 2.
4.  His BABIP is way down.  This is partly connected to fact 2, and partly just bad luck.

So, Brett, you need to be more patient.  Yes, you are seeing more strikes, but you are still a short dude.  Pitchers will always have trouble throwing strikes to you because your zone is smaller.  Make pitchers show that they can hit your zone before you swing.  A walk for you is almost as good as a double, remember that.  Don't let the pitchers take you out of your game.

Costas was just on MLB Tonight, on the MLB Network, to discuss the fallout of the Barry Bonds ruling.  The words coming out of his mouth felt like he has been secretly listening into my inner-most thoughts.  I felt he was absolutely spot on.  Here's the transcript of what he said:

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I'm going to start out by saying that WAR for pitchers is flawed right now.  Basing it on FIP seems like a good idea, in principle, but there is more to pitching than walks, strikeouts, and homeruns.  Pitchers do have some control on batted ball types, and from the research I've done, it is obvious to me that pitchers perform differently when they have men on base and have to throw out of the stretch.

A great example of why pitcher WAR is very shaky is CC and Matt Garza right now.  CC has accrued .6 WAR in his three starts (6 ip, 2 er; 7 ip, 0 er; 5.2 ip, 1 er).  Garza has earned .8 WAR in his two starts (7 ip, 3 er, 5.2 ip, 5 er).  How does that add up?  Garza is striking out 14 per 9, that's great!  But he's also getting peppered by line drives all over the field.  FIP is trying to say that the results of any balls hit into play aren't really Garza's fault, but he's giving up a 40% line drive rate. That is his fault.  Garza should not be considered "more valuable" than CC so far this season, that's completely asinine.

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Those of you who pay attention to what I say (and let's be honest, who doesn't?) have often heard me say that defense is almost impossible to quantify. Qualifications are easy: Brett Gardner is fast, Curtis Granderson often misjudges balls and gets bad jumps, Derek Jeter has bad range, Robinson Cano has a laser arm, etc. But, how do these qualities actually translate into making outs? It's just not as cut-and-dry as offense, where a player either hits the ball or doesn't. If a ball is hit past a fielder, we might ask ourselves, "Would a better fielder have reached that ball?" We can't answer that question exactly, because a better fielder was not there to try to field it, only the player we witnessed. Over the course of this discussion, I hope to show the evolution of defensive statistics in baseball, and give a glimpse of the exciting future of this branch of sabermetrics.

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Hello everyone at BTB.  I'm a long-time poster at the SB Yankees site, Pinstripe Alley, but this is my first foray into the football blogs.  I'm a big fan of the Bengals and Cowboys, but the Bengals are a bit further away from being relevant, so my thoughts are more towards how the Cowboys can get over the hump.

I haven't read a lot here, so excuse me if those with more football knowledge feel I'm wrong, but the main flaw I saw in this team this year was the secondary.  Our offense is solid and can score, but our defense just bled points.  We have the best pash-rusher in the game in Ware, and I like our linebackers, even though we don't have a game-changer like a Lewis or Matthews, but our safeties and corners seemed to get torched on a weekly basis.  Kiper Jr. and McShay seem to agree, as they both have the Cowboys taking a CB with their first pick. 

My question is, would it make sense to go after Bob Sanders, Namdi Asomugha, or possibly both?  Asomugha would be a game-changer for our defense, as most people believe he's the second best CB behind Darelle Revis.  Sanders, if he can stay healthy, would be a huge improvement for our safeties.  Now, my level of expertise is more towards baseball, so I have no idea if either of these guys would fit under the cap, or how this would work.  I think it's a no-brainer in terms of on-field product, but does this make sense financially?

Oh Andy Pettitte,

We'd be in trouble if you left us now.

Cause we don't know where to look for reliable starting pitching,

We just don't know how.

Oh Andy Pettitte,

How we depend on you,

To give us quality starts when we need it,

Right on time you would always be

All the media call us a fool

They say, "let the prospects take care of you."

So I try to be hip and think like the media,

But even the prospects can't help me now, oh oh oh oh oh oh

Oh Andy Pettitte,

Tell me what am I gonna do?

I know I've got payroll space,

Girl, I mean Andy, I feel so out of place.

Don't know where to go, who to sign, yeah

Oh Andy Pettitte

You better not go

You can save us a lot of useless losses

Andy, I've got to get away from here.

Oh, Andy Pettitte

Pain will double if you leave us now

Cause I don't know where to look for starting pitching

And I don't, I don't know how.

Oh yeah, mmm hmm

Oh, Andy Pettitte

Why do we need you so

Mmm

Please don't go, you can stay

Have you ever seen such a helpless team?

Oh... Oh... No...

Greetings my fellow Yankee enthusiasts.  I know that some of you are crying yourselves to sleep at night because of what the Red Sox have done this offseason, and because we didn't get Lee, and even those who aren't are feeling a bit uneasy right now, I'm sure.  Don't you worry, baby bears, papa's got a big bag o'Sabermetrics to feed you with!

Let's be honest, we got bad years from Posada, Teixeira, Jeter, and Arod last year.  For those of you keeping score at home, those are 4 of our 5 best offensive players.  Are they all getting old?  Wha ha happen?

I was wasting my time looking at baseball statistics instead of studying for my physics finals, always a good idea, and I stumbled across something.  Let's look at the differences between xbabip and babip for our guys.  For those that don't know, babip is a very fickle statistic.  Players can have great years simply because they had a lot of luck with balls finding grass, or they can have bad years because they have bad luck with hitting linedrives right at fielders. 

A few years back, some research was done into what aspects of hitting have a correlation to babip.  Some are pretty intuitive: those that are positively correlated are "hitter's eye" (BB%/K%), Line drive %, Speed (they used the one on fangraphs), and pitches per plate appearance.  Things that are negatively correlated were pitches per extra base hit (basically, how often a hitter makes solid contact), fb/gb ratio, spray (how much a hitter distributes the ball to all fields), and contact rate.  Those last two are somewhat surprising, you would think that a hitter who makes good contact and hits the ball to all fields would have a higher babip, but the opposite is true.  Balls tend to be hit harder when pulled, making them tougher to field, which explains spray, and players with lower contact rates tend to be all-or-nothing swingers, either they miss the ball or crush it, explaining why contact is negatively correlated.  Using this data, they were able to form an equation for expected babip, coined xbabip, which had a 59% correlation with actual babip, very statistically significant.

Now that you hopefully understand what xbabip is, you will realize that if you find the difference of xbabip and babip, you get a picture of how lucky or unlucky a hitter was, and what you might be able to expect from them the following year with more neutral luck.  How did our Yankees fare last year?

Player:     xbabip-babip     Avg.     xAvg.
Arod:                .031               .270      .294
Gardner:          .009               .277      .284
Granderson:    .031               .247      .269
Jeter:                .035               .270      .299
Posada:           .035               .248      .272
Teixeira:           .027               .256      .276
Swisher:          -.030               .288      .267
Cano:              -.016               .319      .307

As you can see, 5 of our players had lousy luck with their balls in play, Swisher had good luck, Cano was a bit lucky, and Gardner was a bit unlucky.  What does this tell us?  Of all the players on the roster, the only player really likely to do worse than last year is Swisher.  Cano might regress a bit, but what he did in 2010 is pretty close to his true talent.  The rest of our hitters have good chances to have positive regression in 2011.  I'm also of the belief that Granderson's revamped swing will further boost his performance in 2011.

Finally a new stat MAR (Messiahs Above Replacement), says that the addition of Jesus Montero to our lineup will further boost our performance.  MAR predicts he will hit 120 Home Runs and cure cancer.  Seriously though, Montero is a huge improvement to the team.  You know who he has to outperform from 2010 to make us better?  Francisco "I've hit 1 HR in my life" Cervelli.  Even if he struggles to adjust in the beginning, he should easily outperform what Cervelli gave us. 

So, never fret, my dears.  Our pitching might be about the same as last year, or it might be better if Cashmoney makes a move, but our offense should definitely be better.  Step away from the ledge, put down the cyanide koolaid, and pray Cashman doesn't trade Montero...

I don't think any of you advocating the Greinke signing have thought this completely through. Signing Lee may actually be our cheapest option. Confused? Don't worry, I'll feed you, baby birds.

Lee will cost about 25 million over 6 years, but signing him lets us keep Gardner and other prospects we would lose. Whatever production these players give us above what we pay them, which for the first three years is 400k with three years of arbitration to follow where they will still be underpayed, makes some of that money back. Brett Gardner's production last year was valued at about 21 million, so he almost single-handedly makes up for Lee's salary.

Let's say that Gardner is not really a 5.5 win player, and he just gives us 4 wins a year over the next 4 years, which is very doable with his defense. Assuming that a win is valued at 4.5MM in 2011 with 5% annual inflation, he will be worth about 77 million over those four years. What will we pay him? Going by Crawford's arbitration salaries, about 16 million. That's 61 million dollars of free production over the next four years from Gardner alone. You have to add to that whatever we would get from the prospects we keep over their first six years of MLB service. As you can see from Gardner's example, a home-grown player can give you a lot of free production. Even if all the other prospects combined only equal Gardner's production, we're talking about almost completely offsetting Lee's salary.

Now, let's say they trade for Greinke instead. I'll assume that over the next two years, Greinke will equal Lee in performance, which I think is generous to Greinke. Greinke will make about 12 million less than Lee over the next two years, and then we would have to pay him about the same if we wanted to keep him. But, when we traded for Greinke, we lost Gardner, so the Yankees likely would sign Crawford at about 18MM. Let's say Crawford gives 5.5 wins annually over the next four years. That works out to 106 million in production, which we payed 72 million for, or 34 million in free production, almost half of what Gardner gives us in the same time span. The difference is 27 million dollars. The difference in pay between Lee and Greinke in the two years before Greinke will be a free agent is 23 million.

So, even if you don't account for what the other prospects do who we would lose in a trade for Greinke, signing Lee and keeping Gardner is cheaper than trading for Greinke and signing Crawford.

With the crowning of the 2010 AL MVP, the 2010 season has officially come to a close.  All major awards have been handed out.  Some were no-brainers, others were quite surprising to everyone.  With some of the recent discussions on sabremetrics, I thought it would be fun to compare who the stats say should have won each award, and who the voters voted for.  The formatting will go as Who won - Who SM says should have won - explanation of difference.

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Here's one wagon you SHOULD jump on!

Well, I read your post Brandon, and I would like to respond. 

First of all, I want to address your Toy Story metaphor.  I don't think it is very accurate, so I'll propose something I think is closer.  For a long time, Isaac Newton's laws of motion were viewed as the canonical "stats" when it came to describing physics.  Over time, however, it became obvious that they weren't as precise as was needed.  This is when new "stats" like special relativity and quantum mechanics were developed.  Newton's laws still give you a rough idea of what is going on, so they certainly still have use, but in instances where you want to become more precise, you have to turn to the more advanced forms.

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