Click Here to see udpated bracket.

 

Championship...

(6) D.Fowler/T.Helton vs (5) A.Ethier/C.Blake

D.Fowler/T.Helton Win Series 4-2

 

Game 1: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 5-3

-----------------------------------------------------------

Game 2: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 7-3

-----------------------------------------------------------

Game 3 D.Fowler/T.Helton win 2-1 (13 Innings)

A.Ethier/C.Blake....000.100.000.000.0-1

D.Fowler/T.Helton...010.000.000.000.1-2

Notes: Walkoff HR by T.Helton in the bottom of the 13th inning

-----------------------------------------------------------

Game 4: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 5-0

A.Ethier/C.Blake....100.001.021-5

D.Fowler/T.Helton...000.000.000-0

HR: A.Ethier(2), C.Blake(1)

-----------------------------------------------------------

Game 5: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 3-0

A.Ethier/C.Blake....000.000.000-0

D.Fowler/T.Helton...001.000.11X-3

HR: None

-----------------------------------------------------------

Game 6: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 7-1

D.Fowler/T.Helton....100.001.005-7

A.Ethier/C.Blake.....000.000.100-1

HR: T.Helton(2)

============================================================================

 

Winners Bracket Champ vs Losers Bracket Champ

(5) A.Ethier/C.Blake vs (6) D.Fowler/T.Helton

Game 1: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 8-7 (10 innings... Fowler/Helton blew 5-1 lead)

Game 2: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 7-0

Game 3: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 4-3

Game 4: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 9-2

Game 5: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 8-5

Game 6: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 3-2 (walkoff single by T.Helton)

Game 7: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 3-1

A.Ethier/C.Blake Win Series 4-3

============================================================================

Losers Bracket Finals, Current Results

(5) A.Ethier/C.Blake vs (2) C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Game 1: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 6-0

Game 2: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 6-3

Game 3: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 2-1

Game 4: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 3-2

Game 5: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 3-2 (3 Run HR by A.Ethier)

A.Ethier/C.Blake Win Series 4-1

============================================================================

Fifth Round Losers Bracket Current Results

(9) M.Ramirez/J.Loney vs (2) C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Game 1: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 2-1

Game 2: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 5-3

Game 3: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 4-3 (2 Run HR in top 9th by T.Tulowitzki)

Game 4: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 8-5 (2 3-Run HR by T.Tulowitzki)

C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki Win Series 4-0

============================================================================

Winners Bracket Final, Current Results

(6) D.Fowler/T.Helton vs (5) A.Ethier/C.Blake

Game 1: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 3-2 (11 inn, walkoff HR by C.Blake)

Game 2: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 8-2

Game 3: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 8-0

Game 4: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 6-3

Game 5: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 12-3

Game 6: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 3-2

D.Fowler/T.Helton Win Series 4-2

============================================================================

Fourth Round Losers Bracket Current Results

(15) W.Venable/D.Eckstein vs (2) C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Game 1: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 7-0

Game 2: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 2-0

Game 3: W.Venable/D.Eckstein win 6-0

Game 4: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 2-1 (2 Run HR by T.Tulowitzki in Top 9th)

Game 5: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 3-1

C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki Win Series 4-1

(9) M.Ramirez/J.Loney vs (8) F.Lewis/P.Sandoval

Game 1: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 4-0

Game 2: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 5-1

Game 3: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 5-4 (10inn, walkoff HR by M.Ramirez)

Game 4: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 8-4

Game 5: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 3-2 10 inn

Game 6: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 6-5 (11 inn, walkoff double by P.Sandoval)

Game 7: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 3-2 (10 inn, M.Ramirez HR in Top of 10th)

M.Ramirez/J.Loney Win Series 4-3

======================================================================

Third Round Losers Bracket Current Results

(3) M.Kemp/R.Furcal vs (2) C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Game 1: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 2-0

Game 2: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 5-4

Game 3: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 7-3

Game 4: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 7-5

Game 5: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 3-2

Game 6: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 9-1

Game 7: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 4-3 (10 inn, walkoff single by T.Tulowitzki)

C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki Win Series 4-3

(14) N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria vs (8) F.Lewis/P.Sandoval

Game 1: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 9-7

Game 2: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 8-5

Game 3: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 8-6

Game 4: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 7-2

Game 5: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 7-3

Game 6: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 2-1

Game 7: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 7-2

F.Lewis/P.Sandoval Win Series 4-3

===========================================================================

Third Round Winners Bracket Current Results

(9) M.Ramirez/J.Loney vs (5) A.Ethier/C.Blake

Game 1: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 8-6

Game 2: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 3-2

Game 3: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 3-2 (16 inn, walkoff single by J.Loney)

Game 4: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 7-2

Game 5: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 6-4

Game 6: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 4-2 (3 runs in Top 9th)

Game 7: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 4-1

A.Ethier/C.Blake Win Series 4-3

(15) W.Venable/D.Eckstein vs (6) D.Fowler/T.Helton

Game 1: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 4-3 (10 inn, walkoff single by D.Fowler)

Game 2: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 6-2

Game 3: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 2-0

Game 4: W.Venable/D.Eckstein win 4-2

Game 5: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 4-1

D.Fowler/T.Helton lead series 4-1

=============================================================================

Second Round Losers Bracket Current Results

(2) C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki vs (1) B.Upton/M.Reynolds

Game 1: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 5-1

Game 2: B.Upton/M.Reynolds win 7-0

Game 3: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 7-4

Game 4: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 5-3

Game 5: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 7-6 (BS, Walkoff single T.Tulowitzki)

C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki Win Series 4-1

(4) C.Headley/A.Gonzalez vs (3) M.Kemp/R.Furcal

Game 1: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 6-1

Game 2: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 5-3

Game 3: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 7-6

Game 4: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 6-1

M.Kemp/R.Furcal Win Series 4-0

(8) F.Lewis/P.Sandoval vs (7) C.Young/S.Drew

Game 1: C.Young/S.Drew win 6-2

Game 2: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 3-2

Game 3: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 9-0

Game 4: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 5-3

Game 5: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 4-3 (10 inn, walkoff single F.Lewis)

F.Lewis/P.Sandoval Win Series 4-1

(14) N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria vs (13) A.Rowand/B.Garko

Game 1: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 4-3 14 inn

Game 2: A.Rowand/B.Garko win 2-0

Game 3: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 1-0

Game 4: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 2-1 (11 inn, walkoff HR E.Renteria)

Game 5: A.Rowand/B.Garko win 8-0

Game 6: A.Rowand/B.Garko win 6-2

Game 7: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 7-0

N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria Win Series 4-3

==================================================================================

Second Round Winners Bracket Current Results

(9) M.Ramirez/J.Loney vs (1) B.Upton/M.Reynolds

Game 1: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 7-5

Game 2: B.Upton/M.Reynolds win 6-1

Game 3: B.Upton/M.Reynolds win 10-0

Game 4: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 3-2 (14inn, walkoff single M.Ramirez + tied game w/2 outs in B9th)

Game 5: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 4-2 (10inn, 3-Run walkoff HR for M.Ramirez w/2 outs)

Game 6: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 6-3

M.Ramirez/J.Loney Win Series 4-2

(5) A.Ethier/C.Blake vs (4) C.Headley/A.Gonzalez

Game 1: C.Headley/A.Gonzalez win 2-1 (walkoff HR A.Gonzalez)

Game 2: C.Headley/A.Gonzalez win 7-6 (13inn, walkoff HR A.Gonzalez)

Game 3: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 6-3

Game 4: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 4-3

Game 5: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 6-1

Game 6: C.Headley/A.Gonzalez win 2-1 (10inn, walkoff double A.Gonzalez)

Game 7: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 6-5

A.Ethier/C.Blake Win Series 4-3

(15) W.Venable/D.Eckstein vs (7) C.Young/S.Drew

Game 1: C.Young/S.Drew win 7-2

Game 2: W.Venable/D.Eckstein win 8-6

Game 3: C.Young/S.Drew win 6-5

Game 4: W.Venable/D.Eckstein win 3-0

Game 5: W.Venable/D.Eckstein win 3-1

Game 6: W.Venable/D.Eckstein win 4-3

W.Venable/D.Eckstein Win Series 4-2

(14) N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria vs (6) D.Fowler/T.Helton

Game 1: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 7-6 (T.Helton walkoff HR... 4 run 9th inning rally)

Game 2: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 6-1

Game 3: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 4-3

Game 4: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 9-6

D.Fowler/T.Helton Win Series 4-0

======================================================================

First Round Losers Bracket Completed Results

(10) S.Smith/G.Atkins vs (2) C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Game 1: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 7-5

Game 2: S.Smith/G.Atkins win 15-7

Game 3: S.Smith/G.Atkins win 8-1

Game 4: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 1-0 16inn

Game 5: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 8-0

Game 6: S.Smith/G.Atkins win 3-1

Game 7: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 7-4

C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki Win Series 4-3

(11) C.Jackson/B.Allen vs (3) M.Kemp/R.Furcal

Game 1: C.Jackson/B.Allen win 2-0

Game 2: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 2-0

Game 3: M.Kemp.R.Furcal win 5-0

Game 4: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 6-1

Game 5: C.Jackson/B.Allen win 5-4 (10inn, walkoff single C.Jackson)

Game 6: C.Jackson/B.Allen win 5-3

Game 7: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 2-1 (12inn, walkoff single M.Kemp)

M.Kemp/R.Furcal Win Series 4-3

(16) B.Hawpe/C.Iannetta vs (8) F.Lewis/P.Sandoval

Game 1: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 6-1

Game 2: B.Hawpe/C.Iannetta win 14-1

Game 3: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 7-2

Game 4: B.Hawpe/C.Iannetta win 7-3

Game 5: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 5-4 (11inn, P.Sandoval HR in 11th)

Game 6: B.Hawpe/C.Iannetta win 5-2

Game 7: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 15-7

F.Lewis/P.Sandoval Win Series 4-3

(13) A.Rowand/B.Garko vs (12) T.Gwynn/K.Kouzmanoff

Game 1: A.Rowand/B.Garko win 4-2 (9th inn, 2-Run HR B.Garko)

Game 2: A.Rowand/B.Garko win 5-2

Game 3: A.Rowand/B.Garko win 2-1 (Walkoff single B.Garko)

Game 4: T.Gwynn/K.Kouzmanoff win 5-4

Game 5: A.Rowand/B.Garko win 2-0

A.Rowand/B.Garko Win Series 4-1

==============================================================

First Round Winners Bracket Completed Results

(16) B.Hawpe/C.Iannetta vs (1) B.Upton/M.Reynolds

Game 1: B.Upton/M.Reynolds win 4-0

Game 2: B.Upton/M.Reynolds win 5-4

Game 3: B.Hawpe/C.Iannetta win 4-3

Game 4: B.Upton/M.Reynolds win 7-6 10inn

Game 5: B.Upton/M.Reynolds win 3-2 15inn

B.Upton/M.Reynolds Win Series 4-1

(9) M.Ramirez/J.Loney vs (8) F.Lewis/P.Sandoval

Game 1: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 6-2

Game 2: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 3-2

Game 3: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 13-2

Game 4: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 4-2 (10 inn, walkoff HR J.Loney)

Game 5: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 4-3 (Loney left bases loaded in B9th)

Game 6: F.Lewis/P.Sandoval win 3-0

Game 7: M.Ramirez/J.Loney win 4-0

M.Ramirez/J.Loney Win Series 4-3

(13) A.Rowand/R.Garko vs (4) C.Headley/A.Gonzalez

Game 1: C.Headley/A.Gonzalaez win 7-6 (11 inn, walkoff HR A.Gonzalez)

Game 2: C.Headley/A.Gonzalez win 5-2

Game 3: A.Rowand/R.Garko win 14-4

Game 4: C.Headley/A.Gonzalez win 9-4

Game 5: C.Headley/A.Gonzalez win 6-3

C.Headley/A.Gonzalez Win Series 4-1

(12) T.Gwynn/K.Kouzmanoff vs (5) A.Ethier/C.Blake

Game 1: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 2-0

Game 2: T.Gwynn/K.Kouzmanoff win 6-5

Game 3: T.Gwynn/K.Kouzmanoff win 4-3 (walkoff double K.Kouzmanoff)

Game 4: T.Gwynn/K.Kouzmanoff win 3-1

Game 5: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 6-3

Game 6: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 3-1

Game 7: A.Ethier/C.Blake win 7-0

SA.Ethier/C.Blake Win Series 4-3

--------------------------------------------------

(15) W.Venable/D.Eckstein vs (2) C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Game 1: W.Venable/D.Eckstein win 9-6

Game 2: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 6-2

Game 3: W.Venable/D.Eckstein win 5-4

Game 4: W.Venable/D.Eckstein win 3-2 (12inn, walk off single W.Venable)

Game 5: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki win 5-2

Game 6: W.Venable/D.Eckstein win 5-4 12inn

W.Venable/D.Eckstein Win Series 4-2

(10) S.Smith/G.Atkins vs (7) C.Young/S.Drew

Game 1: C.Young/S.Drew win 5-3

Game 2: C.Young/S.Drew win 3-1

Game 3: C.Young/S.Drew win 14-3

Game 4: S.Smith/G.Atkins win 6-5 (10inn, walkoff double G.Atkins)

Game 5: C.Young/S.Drew win 9-5

C.Young/S.Drew Win Series 4-1

(14) N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria vs (3) M.Kemp/R.Furcal

Game 1: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 4-0

Game 2: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 4-3 13inn (Furcal HR in B9th/2 Outs ties game)

Game 3: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 5-3

Game 4: M.Kemp/R.Furcal win 3-2 10inn

Game 5: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 3-0

Game 6: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 4-3 10 Inn

Game 7: N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria win 1-0 (Kemp leaves tying run on 2nd base in B9th)

N.Schierholtz/E.Renteria Win Series 4-3

(11) C.Jackson/B.Allen vs (6) D.Fowler/T.Helton

Game 1: C.Jackson/B.Allen win 10-0

Game 2: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 1-0

Game 3: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 3-1

Game 4: C.Jackson/B.Allen win 5-1

Game 5: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 7-1

Game 6: C.Jackson/B.Allen win 3-1

Game 7: D.Fowler/T.Helton win 8-5

D.Fowler/T.Helton Win Series 4-3

 

 

Click Here to see udpated bracket.

What: Dodger Sims is hosting a 16 team double elimination tournament, where each game is played on my simulator in best four out of seven format. Click here to view an interactive bracket listing.  Game by game (or round by round) results will be posted in subsequent Fanposts.

Participants: 16 pair of NL West outfielders/infielders from the same team.

Rules: Each player bats four times in the lineup, alternating throughout the lineup in the one through eight spots in the lineup. A league average pitcher will bat 9th for all teams. And a four man bench consisting of the two man team will be available for pinch hitting duties. Each team will use the same four man rotation of RHP Dan Haren, LHP Clayton Kershaw, RHP Matt Cain and LHP Clayton Richard. All bullpens will be identical. The higher seeded team will have home field advantage in the 2-3-2 format.

Notes: This tournament is for entertainment purposes only. If all goes well, I will be open to another type of tournament following this one. Current results will be posted on a game by game basis.

Click on brackets to see a larger image.

via challonge.com

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

 

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability.  Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible.  Not an easy thing to do.  AccuScore has come in with the lowest win probability of the three for the Yankees.  Meanwhile, the Vegas line has moved up to 65.87% since the opening lines came out.

 

Top 100 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

 

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

 

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

 

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

 

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability.  Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible.  Not an easy thing to do.  The AccuScore iPod finally has its tallies in and they favor the Phillies a little more than Vegas and the Simulator.

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

 

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

 

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

 

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

 

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability.  Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible.  Not an easy thing to do.

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

 

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

 

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

 

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

 

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability.  Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible.  Not an easy thing to do.

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

 

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

 

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Sunday at 9:30PM)

 

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Burnett vs C.Lee	PHI	57.45%	63.03%	60%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator says the Phillies will most likely live to play another day, mostly due to the deft pitching of Cliff Lee.  There is around 5-1/2 percentage points of difference between the Simulator and Vegas on Game #5.  AccuScore's numbers are out and they are splitting the difference between the Simulator and Vegas.

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 3-2
2	PHI 4-3
3	PHI 2-1
4	PHI 5-4
5	NYA 3-2
6	PHI 3-1
7	PHI 4-2
8	PHI 4-1
9	NYA 4-3
10	PHI 5-2
11	NYA 2-1
12	PHI 5-3
13	PHI 5-1
14	NYA 5-4
15	NYA 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 3-1
18	PHI 3-0
19	PHI 6-2
20	PHI 4-0
21	PHI 1-0
22	PHI 2-0
23	NYA 5-3
24	PHI 6-3
25	PHI 5-0
26	PHI 6-4
27	PHI 6-1
28	NYA 5-2
29	PHI 7-2
30	NYA 6-5
31	NYA 4-1
32	PHI 6-0
33	NYA 1-0
34	NYA 6-4
35	PHI 7-3
36	PHI 7-6
37	NYA 2-0
38	PHI 7-1
39	NYA 6-3
40	NYA 6-2
41	PHI 7-4
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 8-2
44	NYA 5-1
45	PHI 8-1
46	PHI 8-3
47	NYA 7-4
48	PHI 7-0
49	NYA 3-0
50	NYA 7-6

 

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Burnett	6.4	6.233	2.847	0.948	1.381	4.522
C.Lee	7.4	5.892	1.241	0.596	1.089	3.157

 

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3159	J.Rollins	.3413
2	J.Damon	.2896	S.Victorino	.3456
3	M.Teixeira	.3479	C.Utley	.3818
4	A.Rodriguez	.3287	R.Howard	.3886
5	R.Cano	.2995	J.Werth	.3504
6	N.Swisher	.2954	R.Ibanez	.3609
7	M.Cabrera	.2704	P.Feliz	.2965
8	J.Molina	.2449	C.Ruiz	.3091
9	A.Burnett	.1366	C.Lee	.1341

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Sunday at 10:00PM)

 

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Burnett vs C.Lee	PHI	57.45%	63.03%	60%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator says the Phillies will most likely live to play another day, mostly due to the deft pitching of Cliff Lee.  There is around 5-1/2 percentage points of difference between the Simulator and Vegas on Game #5.  AccuScore's numbers are out and they are taking the middle ground.

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 3-2
2	PHI 4-3
3	PHI 2-1
4	PHI 5-4
5	NYA 3-2
6	PHI 3-1
7	PHI 4-2
8	PHI 4-1
9	NYA 4-3
10	PHI 5-2
11	NYA 2-1
12	PHI 5-3
13	PHI 5-1
14	NYA 5-4
15	NYA 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 3-1
18	PHI 3-0
19	PHI 6-2
20	PHI 4-0
21	PHI 1-0
22	PHI 2-0
23	NYA 5-3
24	PHI 6-3
25	PHI 5-0
26	PHI 6-4
27	PHI 6-1
28	NYA 5-2
29	PHI 7-2
30	NYA 6-5
31	NYA 4-1
32	PHI 6-0
33	NYA 1-0
34	NYA 6-4
35	PHI 7-3
36	PHI 7-6
37	NYA 2-0
38	PHI 7-1
39	NYA 6-3
40	NYA 6-2
41	PHI 7-4
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 8-2
44	NYA 5-1
45	PHI 8-1
46	PHI 8-3
47	NYA 7-4
48	PHI 7-0
49	NYA 3-0
50	NYA 7-6

 

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Burnett	6.4	6.233	2.847	0.948	1.381	4.522
C.Lee	7.4	5.892	1.241	0.596	1.089	3.157

 

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3159	J.Rollins	.3413
2	J.Damon	.2896	S.Victorino	.3456
3	M.Teixeira	.3479	C.Utley	.3818
4	A.Rodriguez	.3287	R.Howard	.3886
5	R.Cano	.2995	J.Werth	.3504
6	N.Swisher	.2954	R.Ibanez	.3609
7	M.Cabrera	.2704	P.Feliz	.2965
8	J.Molina	.2449	C.Ruiz	.3091
9	A.Burnett	.1366	C.Lee	.1341

 

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 9:30PM)

 

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton	NYA	62.26%	62.51%	65%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator thinks that Joe Blanton is mismatched against CC Sabathia.  And now that the Vegas lines are up, so does Vegas and AccuScore for that matter.  Vegas and the Simulator are in almost perfect agreement as to the likelihood of a Yankees victory.  38% win probability is not a huge underdog, so a Phillie victory is quite possible, but either Joe Blanton is going to have to be on top of his game, and or CC Sabathia is going to have to be hittable like he was to Chase Utley in Game #1.  Most likely scores 7 thru 14 are the blackhole that the Phillies need to avoid.  :)

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 4-3
2	PHI 3-2
3	NYA 3-2
4	NYA 4-3
5	PHI 2-1
6	PHI 5-4
7	NYA 4-2
8	NYA 3-1
9	NYA 2-1
10	NYA 5-4
11	NYA 5-3
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 5-1
15	PHI 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 6-2
18	NYA 6-4
19	NYA 6-3
20	PHI 5-3
21	NYA 4-0
22	NYA 6-5
23	PHI 3-1
24	NYA 3-0
25	NYA 6-1
26	NYA 7-2
27	NYA 5-0
28	PHI 5-2
29	NYA 2-0
30	NYA 7-4
31	NYA 7-3
32	NYA 7-1
33	PHI 6-4
34	PHI 1-0
35	NYA 6-0
36	NYA 1-0
37	PHI 7-6
38	NYA 7-5
39	PHI 4-1
40	NYA 8-1
41	NYA 8-2
42	NYA 8-3
43	PHI 6-3
44	NYA 7-0
45	NYA 8-4
46	NYA 7-6
47	PHI 2-0
48	PHI 6-2
49	NYA 9-2
50	PHI 7-5

 

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
C.Sabathia	7.1	6.845	2.008	0.694	1.132	3.390
J.Blanton	6.6	5.589	2.117	1.236	1.332	4.915

 

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3298	J.Rollins	.3115
2	J.Damon	.3429	S.Victorino	.3057
3	M.Teixeira	.3952	C.Utley	.3207
4	A.Rodriguez	.3840	R.Howard	.3057
5	J.Posada	.3655	J.Werth	.3307
6	R.Cano	.3247	R.Ibanez	.3045
7	N.Swisher	.3545	P.Feliz	.2884
8	M.Cabrera	.3051	C.Ruiz	.2863
9	C.Sabathia	.1340	J.Blanton	.1352

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 9:30PM)

 

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton	NYA	62.26%	62.51%	65%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator thinks that Joe Blanton is mismatched against CC Sabathia.  And now that the Vegas lines are up, so does Vegas and AccuScore for that matter.  Vegas and the Simulator are in almost perfect agreement as to the likelihood of a Yankees victory.  The simulator has the trio of Teixeira, AROD and Posada all doing very offensively, while only the lefty mashing Jayson Werth sniffing a taste of success for the Phillies.

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 4-3
2	PHI 3-2
3	NYA 3-2
4	NYA 4-3
5	PHI 2-1
6	PHI 5-4
7	NYA 4-2
8	NYA 3-1
9	NYA 2-1
10	NYA 5-4
11	NYA 5-3
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 5-1
15	PHI 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 6-2
18	NYA 6-4
19	NYA 6-3
20	PHI 5-3
21	NYA 4-0
22	NYA 6-5
23	PHI 3-1
24	NYA 3-0
25	NYA 6-1
26	NYA 7-2
27	NYA 5-0
28	PHI 5-2
29	NYA 2-0
30	NYA 7-4
31	NYA 7-3
32	NYA 7-1
33	PHI 6-4
34	PHI 1-0
35	NYA 6-0
36	NYA 1-0
37	PHI 7-6
38	NYA 7-5
39	PHI 4-1
40	NYA 8-1
41	NYA 8-2
42	NYA 8-3
43	PHI 6-3
44	NYA 7-0
45	NYA 8-4
46	NYA 7-6
47	PHI 2-0
48	PHI 6-2
49	NYA 9-2
50	PHI 7-5

 

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
C.Sabathia	7.1	6.845	2.008	0.694	1.132	3.390
J.Blanton	6.6	5.589	2.117	1.236	1.332	4.915

 

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3298	J.Rollins	.3115
2	J.Damon	.3429	S.Victorino	.3057
3	M.Teixeira	.3952	C.Utley	.3207
4	A.Rodriguez	.3840	R.Howard	.3057
5	J.Posada	.3655	J.Werth	.3307
6	R.Cano	.3247	R.Ibanez	.3045
7	N.Swisher	.3545	P.Feliz	.2884
8	M.Cabrera	.3051	C.Ruiz	.2863
9	C.Sabathia	.1340	J.Blanton	.1352