If the bidding for the Dodgers were a horse race at Hollywood Park, who would you place your bets on!?

...... And away they go!

Race: The Grade I $1.5B Dodgers Derby
Track: Dirt. 1-1/4 Mile

1. Magic Johnson and Stan Kasten: One of the early dark horse favorites but draws the always difficult post position. Always a fierce competitor but will need a fast track to win. Early morning odds 3/1.

2. Joe Torre and Rick Caruso: A gelding who comes from great bloodlines and has won his share of races but will face tough challenges from younger faster competition. Early morning odds 4/1.

3. Peter O'Malley: Has been a while since he last won a big race. Will find it difficult competing in this big stakes race. Early morning odds 20/1

4. Mark Cuban: Ships in from Texas in an attempt to win big in California. May find footing a bit slippery on new track. Will run with blinders on. Early morning odds 5/1

5. Steve Garvey and Orel Hershiser: The son of famous race horse World Series Slew this horse has the bloodline in it to win. Will likely sit off the pace and come hard charging down the stretch. Early morning odds 5/2

6. Steven Cohen: Breaking from the favorable 6 hole, has ran well of late, but more known as a turf horse. Early morning odds 6/1

7. Roy Disney's family and Stanley Gold: It may be a small world afterall but it will take some serious mis-steps from the competition to win. Early morning odds 9/1

8. Dennis Gibert, Jason Reese, and Randy Wooster: Bred and trained for this kind of race, look for this horse to bide his time just off the pace before making his move the last two furlongs. Early morning odds 5/2

9. Joshua Macciello: Steps up in class in his first Grade I Stakes race. Look for this horse to make an early dash and try to hold off the other horses. Early morning odds 50/1

Note: I have no idea who has the best chances of winning the bidding to buy the Dodgers. All odds are just made up.

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Twins top starting pitchers: Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Scott Blackburn and Jason Marquis. The rotation was taken from MLB Depth Charts. One thing that stands out to me (non Twins subject matter expert) is the number of ground ball pitchers the Twins have on their staff.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Twins starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Twins starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Rays top starting pitchers: David Price, James Shields, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis as per the MLB Depth Charts website.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Rays starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter (exception for Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg, Fans Projections FG) over the last two years. Matt Moore's stats were taken from the Fangraphs Fans Projections and modified slightly, so there is some uncertainty around what numbers would best represent his skill in these areas. Here is the top 25 list for each Rays starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

It is kind of interesting to pick off the top one or two from each table and imagine your pitcher being replaced with that pitcher and how better or worse or the same your team would be.

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Diamondbacks top starting pitchers: Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill and Josh Collmenter. Sample size was too small on the pitcher that MLB Depth Charts has listed as the Diamondbacks likely (Wade Miley) fifth starter.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Diamondbacks starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Diamondbacks starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

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It seems like today there are many different ways to evaluate starting pitchers, whether they be with such modern stats as WAR, FIP, xFIP or SIERA or one of the other hipster stats out there. Many of you know how good of a rotation the Giants have. A solid one. I have put together another way of looking at how good a starting pitcher is. Not with a fancy stat that will score you 50 points double word in scrabble but with a list of comparables to other starting pitchers throughout the league based on three of the more important pitcher skilled stats. Ever thought who Matt Cain's MLB clone is? Look no further. Here, I put before you a look at some of the top comparables to the Giants top starting pitchers: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito as per the MLB Depth Charts website.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Giants starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter (exception for Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg, Fans Projections FG) over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Giants starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

The first thing that will likely catch your eye, besides the beautifully laid out tables is the great numbers that Madison Bumgarner has put up. With a little more of a sample size of innings pitched, Bumgarner may shortly be thought of the Giants #2 pitcher ahead of Matt Cain. So contract status and age aside, which starting five would you expect to do better (Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Zito) or their clones of (Lester, Marcum, Shields, Jackson and Davies)?

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Marlins top starting pitchers: Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco and Carlos Zambrano as per the MLB Depth Charts website.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Marlins starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter (exception for Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg, Fans Projections FG) over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Marlins starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

First thing that stands out are the great numbers and comparables for both Johnson and Sanchez. Nolasco has some pretty decent numbers too, I really like the low walk rate. I did a double take when I saw Buehrle's peripherals. That is a pretty poor K rate, the low walk rate does help offset it a little bit and more importantly (not shown) is his consistency when it comes to eating innings. Zambrano struggles with the high BB rate, giving him a rather unimpressive list of comparables.

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Brewers top starting pitchers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson as per the MLB Depth Charts website.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Brewers starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter (exception for Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg, Fans Projections FG) over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Brewers starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

Greinke's and Gallardo's list of comparables are pretty impressive. Marcum has a solid but not spectacular list. Narveson begins the drop off, which is mostly due to his BB/9 that climbs to over 3, then Randy Wolf rounds things out with some pretty non-impressive numbers.

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Cardinals top starting pitchers: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Cardinals starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Cardinals starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

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Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Angels top starting pitchers: Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, Ervin Santana.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Angels starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Angels starter. Some NL pitchers would of course have to be slightly penalized for getting to face pitchers, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

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Here is a look at how the Giants 2011 game by game actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Giants games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5357 which translates to an expected win total of 86.78 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Giants game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5450 or 88.29 wins.  The Giants actually went 86-76 on the season.  Vegas pretty much nailed the Giants win total, while my simulator thought the Giants should've won a couple of more games.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Giants were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Diamondbacks 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Diamondbacks games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4969 which translates to an expected win total of 80.49 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Diamondbacks game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4837 or 78.37 wins.  The Diamondbacks actually went 94-68 on the season.  Neither Vegas or the simulator were able to pick up on the Diamondbacks as a 94 win team.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Diamondbacks were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Angels 2011 game by game actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Angels games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5226 which translates to an expected win total of 84.66 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Angels game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4969 or 80.51 wins.  The Angels actually went 86-76 on the season.  The Angels outplayed their Vegas and simulator win expectancies.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Angels were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Padres 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Padres games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4676 which translates to an expected win total of 75.76 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Padres game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4842 or 78.44 wins.  The Padres actually went 71-91 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Padres were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Athletics 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Athletics games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4861 which translates to an expected win total of 78.74 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Athletics game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5083 or 82.35 wins.  The Athletics actually went 74-88 on the season.  Vegas and especially my simulator failed to pick up in time on how bad the Athletics were this year.  Probably a combination of the offense and defense being overrated.  Either way, just a rather disappointing season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Athletics were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Rockies 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Rockies games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5073 which translates to an expected win total of 82.18 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Rockies game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5367 or 86.95 wins.  The Rockies actually went 73-89 on the season.  Of all the teams I've looked at so far, the Rockies missed their Vegas and Sim predictions by far the most of any team.  They played WAY below what everyone thought was their true talent level.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Rockies were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Rangers 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Rangers games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5523 which translates to an expected win total of 89.47 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Rangers game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5601 or 90.73 wins.  The Rangers actually went 96-66 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Rangers were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Marlins 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Marlins games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4725 which translates to an expected win total of 76.55 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Marlins game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4645 or 75.25 wins.  The Marlins actually went 72-90 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Marlins were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Phillies 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Phillies games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5907 which translates to an expected win total of 95.69 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Phillies game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5829 or 94.44 wins.  The Phillies actually went 102-60 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Phillies were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Red Sox 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Red Sox games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5695 which translates to an expected win total of 92.27 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Red Sox game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5578 or 90.36 wins.  The Red Sox actually went 90-72 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Red Sox were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Nationals 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Nationals games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4578 which translates to an expected win total of 74.16 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Nationals game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4750 or 76.95 wins.  The Nationals actually went 80-81 on the season.  The Nationals finished off the season well, never quite getting the respect it deserved from Vegas.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Nationals were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Blue Jays 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Blue Jays games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4818 which translates to an expected win total of 78.06 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Blue Jays game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4653 or 75.39 wins.  The simulator moreso than Vegas undersold the Blue Jays a little bit.  The Blue Jays actually went 81-81 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Blue Jays were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Braves 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Braves games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5462 which translates to an expected win total of 88.48 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Braves game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5144 or 83.33 wins.  The Braves actually went 89-73 on the season.  The Braves along with the Orioles were two of the teams that the simulator didn't have a good handle on this year.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Braves were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Orioles 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Orioles games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4409 which translates to an expected win total of 71.42 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Orioles game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4839 or 78.40 wins.  The Orioles actually went 69-93 on the season.  Of all the teams I've looked at so far, predicting the Orioles outcomes has been my simulators biggest failure.  All that talent, so few wins!  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Orioles were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Yankees 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Yankees games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5653 which translates to an expected win total of 91.57 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Yankees game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5803 or 94.01 wins.  The Yankees actually went 97-65 on the season.  This is what I have been seeing with teams near the top or bottom of the 2011 win totals, that their actual wins are an outlier from what both Vegas and my Simulator expected from them.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Yankees were the largest favorite to win.  (NYA = New York, American League)

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Here is a look at how the Mets 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Mets games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4680 which translates to an expected win total of 75.82 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Mets game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4819 or 78.07 wins.  The Mets actually went 77-85 on the season.  Their actual win total is sandwiched right in between both the Vegas and Sim win expectancies.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Mets were the largest favorite to win.  (NYN = New York, National League)

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Here is a look at how the Rays 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Rays games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5236 which translates to an expected win total of 84.83 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Rays game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4885 or 79.14 wins.  The Rays actually went 91-71 on the season.  The Rays also had 31.6 fWAR as a team for the entire season.  They seemed to outplay all of the predictions.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Rays were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Indians 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Indians games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4800 which translates to an expected win total of 77.77 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Indians game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4764 or 77.18 wins.  The Indians actually went 80-82 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Indians were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Reds 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Reds games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5157 which translates to an expected win total of 83.54 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Reds game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5197 or 84.19 wins.  The Reds actually went 79-83 on the season.  It appears that the Reds underplayed their likely true talent level as a team this past year.   Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Reds were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Tigers 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Tigers games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5335 which translates to an expected win total of 86.43 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Tigers game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5358 or 86.80 wins.  The Tigers actually went 95-67 on the season.   Amazingly, the Tigers were 32-7 in the top 39 games they were favored in.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Tigers were the largest favorite to win.

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Here is a look at how the Cardinals 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Cardinals games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5425 which translates to an expected win total of 87.88 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Cardinals game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5721 or 92.67 wins.  The Cardinals actually went 90-72 on the season and of course went on to have a pretty successful post-season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Cardinals were the largest favorite to win.

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