SB Nation User Blog: Xeifrank

World Series Simulation, Game #6

Xeifrank — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:51:26 -0000

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability. Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible. Not an easy thing to do. AccuScore has come in with the lowest win probability of the three for the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Vegas line has moved up to 65.87% since the opening lines came out.

Top 100 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

World Series Simulation, Game #6

Xeifrank — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:10:04 -0000

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability. Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible. Not an easy thing to do. The AccuScore iPod finally has its tallies in and they favor the Phillies a little more than Vegas and the Simulator.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

World Series Simulation, Game #6

Xeifrank — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 05:53:30 -0000

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

World Series Simulation, Game #6

Xeifrank — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 05:11:25 -0000

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

World Series Simulation, Game #5

Xeifrank — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 06:03:15 -0000

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Sunday at 9:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Burnett vs C.Lee	PHI	57.45%	63.03%	60%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator says the Phillies will most likely live to play another day, mostly due to the deft pitching of Cliff Lee. There is around 5-1/2 percentage points of difference between the Simulator and Vegas on Game #5. AccuScore's numbers are out and they are splitting the difference between the Simulator and Vegas.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 3-2
2	PHI 4-3
3	PHI 2-1
4	PHI 5-4
5	NYA 3-2
6	PHI 3-1
7	PHI 4-2
8	PHI 4-1
9	NYA 4-3
10	PHI 5-2
11	NYA 2-1
12	PHI 5-3
13	PHI 5-1
14	NYA 5-4
15	NYA 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 3-1
18	PHI 3-0
19	PHI 6-2
20	PHI 4-0
21	PHI 1-0
22	PHI 2-0
23	NYA 5-3
24	PHI 6-3
25	PHI 5-0
26	PHI 6-4
27	PHI 6-1
28	NYA 5-2
29	PHI 7-2
30	NYA 6-5
31	NYA 4-1
32	PHI 6-0
33	NYA 1-0
34	NYA 6-4
35	PHI 7-3
36	PHI 7-6
37	NYA 2-0
38	PHI 7-1
39	NYA 6-3
40	NYA 6-2
41	PHI 7-4
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 8-2
44	NYA 5-1
45	PHI 8-1
46	PHI 8-3
47	NYA 7-4
48	PHI 7-0
49	NYA 3-0
50	NYA 7-6

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Burnett	6.4	6.233	2.847	0.948	1.381	4.522
C.Lee	7.4	5.892	1.241	0.596	1.089	3.157

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3159	J.Rollins	.3413
2	J.Damon	.2896	S.Victorino	.3456
3	M.Teixeira	.3479	C.Utley	.3818
4	A.Rodriguez	.3287	R.Howard	.3886
5	R.Cano	.2995	J.Werth	.3504
6	N.Swisher	.2954	R.Ibanez	.3609
7	M.Cabrera	.2704	P.Feliz	.2965
8	J.Molina	.2449	C.Ruiz	.3091
9	A.Burnett	.1366	C.Lee	.1341

World Series Simulation, Game #5

Xeifrank — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 06:33:29 -0000

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Sunday at 10:00PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Burnett vs C.Lee	PHI	57.45%	63.03%	60%

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 3-2
2	PHI 4-3
3	PHI 2-1
4	PHI 5-4
5	NYA 3-2
6	PHI 3-1
7	PHI 4-2
8	PHI 4-1
9	NYA 4-3
10	PHI 5-2
11	NYA 2-1
12	PHI 5-3
13	PHI 5-1
14	NYA 5-4
15	NYA 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 3-1
18	PHI 3-0
19	PHI 6-2
20	PHI 4-0
21	PHI 1-0
22	PHI 2-0
23	NYA 5-3
24	PHI 6-3
25	PHI 5-0
26	PHI 6-4
27	PHI 6-1
28	NYA 5-2
29	PHI 7-2
30	NYA 6-5
31	NYA 4-1
32	PHI 6-0
33	NYA 1-0
34	NYA 6-4
35	PHI 7-3
36	PHI 7-6
37	NYA 2-0
38	PHI 7-1
39	NYA 6-3
40	NYA 6-2
41	PHI 7-4
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 8-2
44	NYA 5-1
45	PHI 8-1
46	PHI 8-3
47	NYA 7-4
48	PHI 7-0
49	NYA 3-0
50	NYA 7-6

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Burnett	6.4	6.233	2.847	0.948	1.381	4.522
C.Lee	7.4	5.892	1.241	0.596	1.089	3.157

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3159	J.Rollins	.3413
2	J.Damon	.2896	S.Victorino	.3456
3	M.Teixeira	.3479	C.Utley	.3818
4	A.Rodriguez	.3287	R.Howard	.3886
5	R.Cano	.2995	J.Werth	.3504
6	N.Swisher	.2954	R.Ibanez	.3609
7	M.Cabrera	.2704	P.Feliz	.2965
8	J.Molina	.2449	C.Ruiz	.3091
9	A.Burnett	.1366	C.Lee	.1341

World Series Simulation, Game #4

Xeifrank — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 16:19:57 -0000

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 9:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton	NYA	62.26%	62.51%	65%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator thinks that Joe Blanton is mismatched against CC Sabathia. And now that the Vegas lines are up, so does Vegas and AccuScore for that matter. Vegas and the Simulator are in almost perfect agreement as to the likelihood of a Yankees victory. 38% win probability is not a huge underdog, so a Phillie victory is quite possible, but either Joe Blanton is going to have to be on top of his game, and or CC Sabathia is going to have to be hittable like he was to Chase Utley in Game #1. Most likely scores 7 thru 14 are the blackhole that the Phillies need to avoid. :)

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 4-3
2	PHI 3-2
3	NYA 3-2
4	NYA 4-3
5	PHI 2-1
6	PHI 5-4
7	NYA 4-2
8	NYA 3-1
9	NYA 2-1
10	NYA 5-4
11	NYA 5-3
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 5-1
15	PHI 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 6-2
18	NYA 6-4
19	NYA 6-3
20	PHI 5-3
21	NYA 4-0
22	NYA 6-5
23	PHI 3-1
24	NYA 3-0
25	NYA 6-1
26	NYA 7-2
27	NYA 5-0
28	PHI 5-2
29	NYA 2-0
30	NYA 7-4
31	NYA 7-3
32	NYA 7-1
33	PHI 6-4
34	PHI 1-0
35	NYA 6-0
36	NYA 1-0
37	PHI 7-6
38	NYA 7-5
39	PHI 4-1
40	NYA 8-1
41	NYA 8-2
42	NYA 8-3
43	PHI 6-3
44	NYA 7-0
45	NYA 8-4
46	NYA 7-6
47	PHI 2-0
48	PHI 6-2
49	NYA 9-2
50	PHI 7-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
C.Sabathia	7.1	6.845	2.008	0.694	1.132	3.390
J.Blanton	6.6	5.589	2.117	1.236	1.332	4.915

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3298	J.Rollins	.3115
2	J.Damon	.3429	S.Victorino	.3057
3	M.Teixeira	.3952	C.Utley	.3207
4	A.Rodriguez	.3840	R.Howard	.3057
5	J.Posada	.3655	J.Werth	.3307
6	R.Cano	.3247	R.Ibanez	.3045
7	N.Swisher	.3545	P.Feliz	.2884
8	M.Cabrera	.3051	C.Ruiz	.2863
9	C.Sabathia	.1340	J.Blanton	.1352

World Series Simulation, Game #4

Xeifrank — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 05:31:58 -0000

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 9:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton	NYA	62.26%	62.51%	65%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator thinks that Joe Blanton is mismatched against CC Sabathia. And now that the Vegas lines are up, so does Vegas and AccuScore for that matter. Vegas and the Simulator are in almost perfect agreement as to the likelihood of a Yankees victory. The simulator has the trio of Teixeira, AROD and Posada all doing very offensively, while only the lefty mashing Jayson Werth sniffing a taste of success for the Phillies.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 4-3
2	PHI 3-2
3	NYA 3-2
4	NYA 4-3
5	PHI 2-1
6	PHI 5-4
7	NYA 4-2
8	NYA 3-1
9	NYA 2-1
10	NYA 5-4
11	NYA 5-3
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 5-1
15	PHI 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 6-2
18	NYA 6-4
19	NYA 6-3
20	PHI 5-3
21	NYA 4-0
22	NYA 6-5
23	PHI 3-1
24	NYA 3-0
25	NYA 6-1
26	NYA 7-2
27	NYA 5-0
28	PHI 5-2
29	NYA 2-0
30	NYA 7-4
31	NYA 7-3
32	NYA 7-1
33	PHI 6-4
34	PHI 1-0
35	NYA 6-0
36	NYA 1-0
37	PHI 7-6
38	NYA 7-5
39	PHI 4-1
40	NYA 8-1
41	NYA 8-2
42	NYA 8-3
43	PHI 6-3
44	NYA 7-0
45	NYA 8-4
46	NYA 7-6
47	PHI 2-0
48	PHI 6-2
49	NYA 9-2
50	PHI 7-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
C.Sabathia	7.1	6.845	2.008	0.694	1.132	3.390
J.Blanton	6.6	5.589	2.117	1.236	1.332	4.915

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3298	J.Rollins	.3115
2	J.Damon	.3429	S.Victorino	.3057
3	M.Teixeira	.3952	C.Utley	.3207
4	A.Rodriguez	.3840	R.Howard	.3057
5	J.Posada	.3655	J.Werth	.3307
6	R.Cano	.3247	R.Ibanez	.3045
7	N.Swisher	.3545	P.Feliz	.2884
8	M.Cabrera	.3051	C.Ruiz	.2863
9	C.Sabathia	.1340	J.Blanton	.1352

World Series Simulation, Game #3

Xeifrank — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 04:31:33 -0000

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 9:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Pettitte vs C.Hamels	NYA	52.83%	46.70%	52.40%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... It looks like according to Vegas, the Yankees are going to be favored in every game of this series. Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites to win Game #3, while my simulator has the Phillies as slight favorites. The spread between Vegas and my simulator is around 6%. AccuScore and Vegas both match in terms of win probability. AccuScore is predicting a much higher scoring game as their over/under is sitting at 10.6, while both Vegas and my simulator have the over/under slightly over 9 runs. So far in this series my simulator and Vegas have each been the most correct one time and AccuScore has been the least correct in both games.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 4-3
2	PHI 3-2
3	PHI 5-4
4	NYA 4-3
5	PHI 2-1
6	NYA 3-2
7	PHI 6-5
8	PHI 4-2
9	NYA 5-4
10	PHI 5-3
11	NYA 4-2
12	PHI 3-1
13	NYA 5-3
14	PHI 5-2
15	NYA 2-1
16	NYA 5-2
17	PHI 4-1
18	NYA 6-4
19	NYA 3-1
20	NYA 6-5
21	PHI 6-4
22	NYA 4-1
23	PHI 7-6
24	PHI 5-1
25	PHI 6-2
26	NYA 6-3
27	PHI 6-3
28	NYA 6-2
29	NYA 5-1
30	NYA 7-5
31	NYA 7-4
32	PHI 7-4
33	PHI 6-1
34	NYA 7-6
35	PHI 3-0
36	PHI 7-2
37	NYA 7-3
38	PHI 8-7
39	PHI 7-3
40	PHI 1-0
41	NYA 7-2
42	PHI 7-1
43	NYA 6-1
44	PHI 2-0
45	PHI 7-5
46	PHI 4-0
47	NYA 2-0
48	NYA 8-5
49	NYA 1-0
50	PHI 8-2

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Pettitte	6.5	5.384	2.508	0.839	1.406	4.375
C.Hamels	6.9	6.031	1.555	0.928	1.262	3.877

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3412	J.Rollins	.3478
2	J.Damon	.3173	S.Victorino	.3453
3	M.Teixeira	.3906	C.Utley	.3656
4	A.Rodriguez	.3735	R.Howard	.3583
5	J.Posada	.3563	J.Werth	.3790
6	R.Cano	.3223	R.Ibanez	.3489
7	J.Hairston	.3036	P.Feliz	.3292
8	M.Cabrera	.2971	C.Ruiz	.3167
9	A.Pettitte	.1435	C.Hamels	.1656

World Series Simulation, Game #3

Xeifrank — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 04:12:57 -0000

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 9:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Pettitte vs C.Hamels	NYA	52.83%	46.70%	52.40%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... It looks like according to Vegas, the Yankees are going to be favored in every game of this series. Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites to win Game #3, while my simulator has the Phillies as slight favorites. The spread between Vegas and my simulator is around 6%. AccuScore has come in with numbers similar to Vegas in terms of win probability, but is predicting an over/under of 10.6 runs, while both Vegas and my simulator see the over/under in the low 9s.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 4-3
2	PHI 3-2
3	PHI 5-4
4	NYA 4-3
5	PHI 2-1
6	NYA 3-2
7	PHI 6-5
8	PHI 4-2
9	NYA 5-4
10	PHI 5-3
11	NYA 4-2
12	PHI 3-1
13	NYA 5-3
14	PHI 5-2
15	NYA 2-1
16	NYA 5-2
17	PHI 4-1
18	NYA 6-4
19	NYA 3-1
20	NYA 6-5
21	PHI 6-4
22	NYA 4-1
23	PHI 7-6
24	PHI 5-1
25	PHI 6-2
26	NYA 6-3
27	PHI 6-3
28	NYA 6-2
29	NYA 5-1
30	NYA 7-5
31	NYA 7-4
32	PHI 7-4
33	PHI 6-1
34	NYA 7-6
35	PHI 3-0
36	PHI 7-2
37	NYA 7-3
38	PHI 8-7
39	PHI 7-3
40	PHI 1-0
41	NYA 7-2
42	PHI 7-1
43	NYA 6-1
44	PHI 2-0
45	PHI 7-5
46	PHI 4-0
47	NYA 2-0
48	NYA 8-5
49	NYA 1-0
50	PHI 8-2

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Pettitte	6.5	5.384	2.508	0.839	1.406	4.375
C.Hamels	6.9	6.031	1.555	0.928	1.262	3.877

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3412	J.Rollins	.3478
2	J.Damon	.3173	S.Victorino	.3453
3	M.Teixeira	.3906	C.Utley	.3656
4	A.Rodriguez	.3735	R.Howard	.3583
5	J.Posada	.3563	J.Werth	.3790
6	R.Cano	.3223	R.Ibanez	.3489
7	J.Hairston	.3036	P.Feliz	.3292
8	M.Cabrera	.2971	C.Ruiz	.3167
9	A.Pettitte	.1435	C.Hamels	.1656