Well, the Reds certainly opened up the pocketbooks on this one.  Yahoo's reporting that Francisco Cordero signed with Cincy for $46M over 4 years, which averages to $11.5M per year.  Yahoo is also reporting that the Cordero contract includes a team option for a 5th year at approx. $11M.

This is the largest four-year deal ever for a closer, surpassing Billy Wagner's $43M/4 deal with the Mets two years ago.  It's not the richest contract ever for a closer, that would be Mariano Rivera's $45M/3 deal with the Yankees a week ago, but it's still a ton of money.

So what does everyone think about this one?  Cordero's got sick stuff and all, but he walks a few too many batters for my taste.  I don't think the move to GAB will hurt him as much as most, since he's familiar with pitching in offensive environments in Texas and Milwaukee.

Another blow for the Milwaukee bullpen, which has now lost both Cordero and Linebrink, although with Scott perhaps it's addition by subtraction.  Both departures were probably expected, so I'm sure the front office has a plan to shore the pen up.  It'll be interesting to see how Melvin responds.  The last 2 years, he's gone ouside the system and acquired bullpen pieces via trade.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=txredscordero&prov=st&type=lgns

Wow.

http://www.sfgate.com/flat/archive/2007/11/15/news/archive/2007/11/15/state/n141013S18.html

Some of you have probably seen the recent press about Rudy Guiliani, who's come out and said that he'll be rooting for the Red Sox in the World Series, because he's an AL guy.

He's getting some flack for it in the press, and it made me curious:  Who are Yankees fans rooting for in this year's World Series?  When I was a kid, I was raised to root for my League no matter what, but Boston/New York is such a heated rivalry, I wonder if that's true for y'all?

Hopefully, it didn't cost you too much, because you are tight with Bud and got a good, solid discount.  But regardless, now you've got to hire a GM to help you compete.

A few facts:

-- You're loaded, but you're also stingy.  Your financial whiz kid bean counter tells you that for 2008, a $80M major league payroll will still make you some money.  What happens after that is anyone's guess.

-- You're smart, and know that winning makes money, but also that making money is winning.

-- You understand and are committed to player recruitment and development.

-- Your ballpark plays fairly neutral.

So, which of the following young GMs do you take, and why?

OK, there's just no way to ignore what Carmona's doing.  Since the All-Star Break, Carmona's put up a 2.19 ERA in 13 starts, with a 65/24 K/BB rate.  He's also got 17 Ws on the year, and tonight's gem against the Royals dropped his ERA to 3.07, which leads the AL.  His 64.9% GB rate also leads the AL, and the strikeouts may have also started to come, as he rung up 9 today (with no walks) against KC.

So, the question is, how good can Carmona be?  He doesn't strike out quite as many as you might like (K/9 of 6.14 since the ASB), but he's otherwise got unreal stuff.  But don't just take my word for it.  Here's what Torii Hunter had to say about Carmona's slider, after a complete game shutout by Carmona earlier this year:

"It's not normal. He's not even human. It was so scary, I thought I was hung over. That dude is filthy. We've been struggling, but even if we had been playing good, we wouldn't have beaten him. If you've never played the game, listen to me, I'm a hitter. Right-handers have no chance unless they get lucky and get a hit on a broken bat."

So far into 2007, Wandy Rodriguez is putting up some seriously impressive component numbers.  In 77 IPs so far this year, he's registering ratios of 8.26 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, and 3.94 K/BB, which are #1/#2 starter-type credentials.  In fact, those almost exactly mimic Aaron Harang's numbers for the year.

What do people who've seen him regularly think?  Is he a good bet to keep putting up these kinds of #s this year, and will his counting stats like W/L come into line?  Has he been doing anything different, or is it just that he's locating better?

Thanks for any thoughts.

Metaphorically, of course.

Did my eyes deceive me, or did Brox really hit 101 on the gun last night during LoDuca's AB?

It looked like (I was on the phone with the GF, so I didn't hear what Scully said), Brox hit 101 with a fastball, and then 97 on a slider, later in the AB.  A 97 mph slider?  Is this even possible??  I'm guessing it was the splitter, but it looked an awful lot like a ridiculously-unhittable slider.

Anyway, don't know if anyone caught the AB, but all I can say is "Wow."

From today's LA Times, it looks like Brett "Bombko" Tomko is being moved to the bullpen again.  If his next start in Vegas "goes well," Kuo is the candidate to replace Tomko in the rotation, not Billingsley.  Not entirely clear who will get the start if Kuo pitches poorly.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-dodrep24may24,1,5589268.story?coll=la-headl ines-sports-mlb-dodger&ctrack=2&cset=true

I kid, because I love.  After two excellent starts to begin the year, Cabrera looked a little shaky yesterday against Kansas City, giving up 3 ERs and 7 hits in just 5 innings.  He did, however, continue his progress in the K/BB department, issuing only one free pass against 5 strikeouts.

I watched part of the game, and Cabrera didn't look too bad.  It was cold and drizzly, and it's possible that affected him, but mostly I think the Royals came in with a plan to swing at the first straight thing they saw.

I know others have been interested to see how he would do in less-than-ideal situations, and a 5 IP, 3 ER performance, though not great, certainly isn't the kind of blow-up we've seen in the past.

Any Cabrera-watchers see yesterday's game and have any additional thoughts?

(And yes, he was just dropped in my fantasy league, but that's not the reason for the diary.)

Big news out of TB's camp today, Cantu's getting sent down, Upton's going to start the year at 2B, and (the big surprise!) Dukes will play CF until Baldelli gets healthy.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-devilraysmoves&prov=ap&type=lgns

The Detroit Free Press is reporting that JV is giving up on his knuckle-curve to throw more of a traditional curveball this year.  Apparently the knuckle-curve was hard on his fingers.

Has anyone seen the new curveball yet, and, if so, any thoughts?  For me, this does create some concern for JV.  In the first half, his knuckle-curve was an excellent complement to his FB, and I wonder how his touch will be on the new pitch.  If he can't locate an effective curveball, I think he could have some trouble with hitters sitting on the FB, which was one of the reasons he struggled in the second half last year.

Thoughts?

This sounds too good to be true, but I thought I would pass it along anyway.  If it works out, it should mean that Comcast cable subscribers can receive MLB Extra Innings on their TVs again this year, and look forward to an all-baseball channel (on an extended basic, but not premium channel) in 2009.

If this is true and not just some more media posturing/gamesmanship on the part of InDemand/Comcast, kudos to them for stepping up to the plate and getting something done.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-tvpackage&prov=ap&type=lgns

According to this news story, Senator Kerry is on the case.  Good to see the Senate tackling issues that matter.

And, without getting into political views, I think I can safely say that we're all rooting for the Senator on this one!

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AmjVKqIfMwVJnN6maCpmVDkRvLYF?slug=ap-kerry-baseballtv&prov =ap&type=lgns

The Boston Herald is reporting that the Red Sox have signed Joel Pineiro (pending physical) to a one-year deal for $4M to be their closer next season.  The contract includes an option year that vests based upon finished games, which is where the closer speculation comes from.

Can this really be true?  Or is Boston just spending $4M to try and bring down the asking prices for Gonzalez or Cordero?  Or perhaps this is just an elaborate April Fool's joke?

What do people think?  Is there any way Joel actually serves as Boston's closer next year?  Successfully?

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=175264&format=text

Is anyone else having trouble getting a read on what type of GM Dayton Moore is going to be?  For every good move he's made this year (Bannister, Dotel), it seems like he's made a corresponding bad or at least questionable one (Meche, Gathright, and maybe Sisco?).

But every time I start to question whether Moore's going to live up to his Braves pedigree, he does something I consider astute, like his moves yesterday, signing Riske to a one-year deal, and adding Zach Day and Brandon Duckworth on low-risk minor-league contracts.

For people who care, a very interesting story about the possible innerworkings of the Rafael Soriano/Horacio Ramirez deal and the Mike Gonzalez/Adam LaRoche near-deal.

I have no idea if any of this is true, but I liked the story since it gives a little more color on how things really go down behind-the-scenes.

From the outside, I know I have been guilty of slamming GMs for dumb deals, but it's always nice to remember they're operating in a very difficult world of cutthroat negotiation and asymetric information.

The story also makes Schuerholz sound like a genius.

http://buccoblog.mlblogs.com/

At the risk of turning this diary into a flame war between Red Sox fans (the Yanks have too much money) and Yankees fans (the Red Sox have a lot of money too), I'd be interested in hearing from people who have actually seen Matsuzaka pitch.  (And yes, we've all seen those grainy Internet videos.)

1. What kind of stuff does this guy have?  For years I heard about the gyroball, now that's apparently something of a red herring.
2. From pictures, he seems of slight build.  Has that been a problem for him in NPB?  Using the same projections we'd use in evaluating prospects, do people see that being a problem for him in terms of either injury or effectiveness in the majors?
3. What's his composure like on the mound?  His command?
4. Finally, if you had to pick a MLB pitcher to compare him to, past or present, who would you pick?

Hey y'all, we're thinking about switching a league over from re-draft to keeper this offseason, so I was wondering what kind of things I needed to think about.  It looks like we'll keep just 3-4 guys, and redraft the rest.  No minor league rosters yet, although maybe that's coming down the road.

I remember reading somewhere not to overvalue closers in a keeper league, but do people have any other advice?  Should I load up on speed, power, tricky positions like SS, C, etc., or is it just best player available?  What about starting pitching?  Do people generally look 1-2 years out for their keepers (so you'd be OK with a 30/31-yr old) or is it better to focus on 25/27-yr olds to get their full peaks for 5-7 years?

I'm sure there's a lot of factors that go into this, and people probably will have different opinions on a lot of it, but hopefully this thread can begin a discussion on general keeper strategy.

Appreciate any insight!

P.S.  Normal 5x5, all MLB.

OK, like probably a few others I'm trying to decide on whether to blow waivers on Garza or Hirsh in my non-keeper league.  What do people think about whether these guys will stay up in the bigs and get starts the rest of the year (assuming they pitch well this weekend)?

Seems to me that with Liriano possibly out for the season, the Twins will probably keep giving Garza the ball every fifth day, especially if he outpitches Baker (which shouldn't be too hard the way Baker's been pitching recently).  Not as sure about Hirsh, because Backe's coming back and Wandy/Buchholz have been decent at the back end of the rotation.

What do people think?

Kansas City Star article on Harrington, the former first rounder from the 2000 draft who refused to sign and is now almost out of baseball.

Not knowing much of the background of this story, I thought this was a pretty even-handed read.  Perhaps others who knows more about this situation will feel differently, but after reading this I ended up feeling pretty sorry for the kid and his family; they just seemed to get caught up in the moment of things and got some bad advice.

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/sports/baseball/15208425.htm

Well, the Nats just issued a statement saying they were not dealing Soriano anywhere:

"We felt the best deal we could make is no deal for the franchise," general manager Jim Bowden said.

Now, this can't be about making the playoffs this year and probably isn't about draft picks, so I guess this is just Bowden sticking his finger in the other GMs' eyes and proving he's willing to go down with the ship to spite them.

Unless he's got some inkling he'll be able to sign Soriano to an extension?

Continue reading this post »

On the heels of last night's masterful 2-hitter against St. Louis, I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts on Francis and how he's developing as a young pitcher.

He's come out guns-ablazin since the break, and his K rate's up too.  Perhaps he's starting to put it all together.  What do y'all think?  I'd be especially interested in hearing from any Rockies fans/people that saw Francis pitch last year--is he doing anything differrent, or is this just a case of a young guy starting to get more comfortable and settle in?

Other potential topics for discussion include Francis' home/road splits, the potential humidor effect, and this quote from LaRussa after last night's game, which is an absolute gem:

"He just worked us over," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said. "He probably didn't even take a shower. I didn't see if he ever sweated. They probably could pitch him tomorrow. I hope he doesn't."

Finally got a chance to watch Olsen pitch last night, against the Orioles.  After hearing how well his last 4 starts went, plus his very solid peripherals so far this year, I expected to be excited about his stuff (full disclosure:  I just picked him up for my re-draft fantasy league).  However, although his results were outstanding (until he got tired in the 8th), I didn't come away too impressed with his stuff.  Low to mid 90s fastball, with decent movement.  Good command for a 22 y.o., though he seemed to struggle with it out of the stretch, excellent breaking ball (slider? curveball?) in the mid-80s.

Is this a case where the eye does not do the pitcher justice?  It's unlikely he had an off night, as his numbers were pretty well in line with his previous outings.  I have an untrained eye, so it's quite possible I'm missing some nuances that explain how he was keeping guys off balance on basically two pitches, even the second and third times through the lineup.

One other thought.  The Orioles announcers kept calling his 81-84 mph breaking pitch different things, some times a change-up, usually a slider (which I've heard is his best pitch, and on some of those pitches I could see why), and even a few times a curveball (which I didn't think he threw).  Is it just that he throws the slider/change-up at the same basic speed?  Sorry if this is a dumb question, but I had a lot of trouble picking up what was what with his secondary pitches.  It all seemed to be breaking stuff, maybe it's more of a slurve.

Would love to hear people's thoughts/comments, either on Olsen's outing last inght or other outings they've seen him pitch.

I'd love to hear people's thoughts on what Cain has done in his last few starts to start to turn things around this season.

My (admittedly amateurish) thoughts:  Cain's velocity may be up a little, consistently hitting 95-96 with his fastball, at least out of the windup.  (I thought John had him at more like 92-94 in the prospect book.)  Maybe he is hiding the ball better, and that together with the increased velocity is hard for the hitters to catch up to.  

I did not see his starts earlier in the year when he was so dreadful, but he seems to be throwing a ton of fastballs (75% or more, by rough count).  His command seems OK, but I don't know how long he can get by throwing challenge fastballs to major league hitters without working in his breaking ball more often.

Is there something anyone can put their finger on?

Or is this just a case of the usual ups and downs of a young pitcher, especially one who's had his confidence shaken a bit.

Thanks in advance for any insight!