SB Nation User Blog: YaoPau

The Bulls and Young Talent

YaoPau — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:59:17 -0000

I wasn't as high on Tyrus as some, but I would've never, ever guessed he'd be in the doghouse 3 games into the season. Now I wouldn't be surprised if we trade him for next to nothing.

With this coming on the heels of letting Gordon walk, it's easy to see a trend developing. But the sad thing is this has been going on for years. Here's the long line of talented young players the Bulls have traded for pennies on the dollar, or let go for nothing:

ELTON BRAND

Bulls Performance: Two 20/10 seasons on the Bulls
Bulls' Publicized Concern: Elton wasn't happy, there were rumors he didn't want to extend, Krause didn't think he was a superstar.
Trade and Aftermath: Brand for Chandler, Brand goes on to make two all-star games during six straight 18/9 seasons.
String o' Trades: Brand -> Chandler ... Chandler -> PJ Brown, JR Smith ... JR Smith -> Aaron Gray.

RON ARTEST

Bulls Performance: Started nearly every game over 2.5 years playing 31mpg. Terrible shooter, but defensive star with the ability to penetrate and pass.
Bulls' Publicized Concern: Artest's maturity, and like Brand, Jerry Krause didn't think Artest was a superstar to build around.
Trade and Aftermath: Artest and 26-year old Brad Miller for Jalen Rose. Artest became crazy, but also one of the league's elite complementary players, making an all-star team. Miller made two all-star teams. Jalen fizzled immediately and was traded two years later for Antonio Davis.
String o' Trades: Artest, Miller -> Rose ... Rose, Donyell Marshall -> Antonio Davis.

TYSON CHANDLER

Bulls Performance: Averaged 25mpg from ages 19-23, starting 50 games his final year with the Bulls. He was below average offensively, but gained a reputation as a top rebounder and defender while anchoring the 2nd rated defense in 2005.
Bulls' Publicized Concern: Endurance issues made him tire late in games and limited his minutes. And at the time, he wasn't Ben Wallace.
Trade and Aftermath: Chandler for PJ Brown and JR Smith. Chandler finished top-10 in the league in DReb% the next two seasons before injuries limited him last season. He's still just 27.
String o' Trades: Chandler -> PJ Brown, JR Smith ... JR Smith -> Aaron Gray

JR SMITH

Bulls Performance: None.
Bulls Publicized Concerns: Bulls coaches didn't like him.
Trade and Aftermath: Smith for what turned out to be Aaron Gray. Smith is still a poor defender with legitimate maturity issues, but he scored 16ppg in the playoffs over the past two years. He's grown into one of the league's best 3pt shooters, making 40% while attempting 9 per 36min.

BEN GORDON

Bulls Performance: Averaged 18ppg for five seasons as a top sharpshooter, led the Bulls in points scored all five years.
Bulls Publicized Concern: Rumored "me-first" attitude, rift with VDN, below average defense, debatable fit with Derrick Rose.
Trade and Aftermath: Bulls let him walk for nothing.

OTHERS...

Jamal Crawford - Averaged 17ppg for us at age 23 before we traded him essentially for Othella Harrington after Paxson cited improving team defense and commitment.

Matt Bonner - Now the starting PF for the Spurs. We traded him for Chris Duhon.

Chris Duhon - Now the starting PG for the Knicks. Played 25mpg for us for four years. We lost him for nothing after numerous reports that he missed team meetings.

Roger Mason - Was never given a shot here. Started 71 games for the Spurs last year, making 42% of 3s. We lost him for nothing.

Thabo Sefolosha - Decent defender, good rebounder, terrible offensively, but still just 24 years old when we traded him for Taj Gibson. Currently starts for the Thunder.

!!!!!!Eddy Curry!!!!!!! - The one time we've actually benefited from identifying a guy was going to suck! Traded him for Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah.

OVERALL

The Eddy Curry ripping of Isiah Thomas aside...

We've Traded/Let Go:

Elton Brand
Ron Artest
Brad Miller
Tyson Chandler
Ben Gordon
JR Smith
Jamal Crawford
Matt Bonner
Chris Duhon
Roger Mason
Thabo Sefolosha

And Got in Return:

Tyson Chandler
JR Smith
PJ Brown
Jalen Rose
Aaron Gray
Othella Harrington
Chris Duhon
Taj Gibson

Which Turned Out To Be:
PJ Brown
Antonio Davis
Aaron Gray
Othella Harrington
Taj Gibson

Which Currently Is:
Aaron Gray
Taj Gibson

No wonder VDN wants to play Taj so bad! Since the Brand/Chandler trade, we've posted a combined record of 287-373, with two winning seasons and one playoff series victory.

TYRUS' SITUATION

Now another young, talented player looks to be halfway out the door before getting a chance to develop. Like Brand's happiness, Artest's maturity, the staff's not liking Smith, Gordon, Crawford (weird how often this happens), there are concerns, some probably legitimate.

But to me in these situations, there should be two options.

1) Play the guy a ton, recognize internally that he's not going to develop into a star, then move him for better young talent (like we did with Eddy Curry and tried to do with Brand), or

2) Play the guy a ton, and extend him.

The worst, worst, WORST thing to do is bench him, leak your concerns about him to the press, and then try to trade him or let him walk. Especially with a guy like Tyrus who, with his filled box scores and highlight reel plays, would make some GMs salivate.

In my $20 fantasy football league, this tactic is obvious to everyone - when you want to trade someone, put him in your starting lineup and say you like the guy, then when you make him available good offers will pour in. You'd think a $500 million dollar franchise would figure out the same.

Raja Bell could miss most of season with wrist injury

YaoPau — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:38:01 -0000

Raja Bell could miss most of season with wrist injury

It's easy to forget the Bobcats were one of the league's hottest teams in March last year. After starting 22-35, they went 12-5 to move to 1 GB the Bulls for the 8th playoff spot before tanking.

Bell's injury means 35.6mpg has to be relocated (probably to Felton and Gerald Henderson). Bulls playoff chances improve by a couple ticks.

NBA changes traveling rule: 2 steps allowed

YaoPau — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 05:15:03 -0000

NBA changes traveling rule: 2 steps allowed

This is going to make post-play weird...

Half-Price Bulls Tickets, all season, already...

YaoPau — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 06:53:44 -0000

Half-Price Bulls Tickets, all season, already...

Chicago likes it live. The Bulls just halved prices on 300 level tickets to 33 home games, bringing the per-ticket cost to $20. Some tix are decent too, I nabbed four for the Thunder game in row 10 two sections left of center court.

*Edit: Whoops, I thought the promocode was on the page. It's "SAVEON".

Luol at PF

YaoPau — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 21:09:36 -0000

In 2007, Luol averaged 18.8ppg on .560 TS%. Take out that season, and his career TS% is .515. We're all hoping for a resurgent season.

Here's something I haven't noticed before, though. His positional splits from that season (per 48 minutes):

SF: 22.9pts, .502 eFG%, 5.4 FTA, .543 TS%
PF: 29.6pts, .594 eFG%, 6.8 FTA, .633 TS%

Oddly enough, for as well as Deng played at PF in 2007, his minutes at PF have dipped since. Approximate minutes played at PF since '07:

2007: 518 minutes, 17% of his playing time
2008: 161 minutes, 8% of his playing time
2009: 162 minutes, 10% of his playing time

Overall splits from 2007-2009, again per 48 minutes:

SF: 22.5pts, 5.5 fta, 8.6reb, 3.3ast, 2.5to, .532 TS%
PF: 26.8pts, 6.5 fta, 10.6reb, 2.3ast, 2.1to, .597 TS%

The low TS% at SF seems to correlate to his jumpshot percentages over the past three seasons:

2007: 42.6 eFG%, 61% of FGA were jumpshots
2008: 40.6 eFG%, 61% of FGA were jumpshots
2009: 38.1 eFG%, 66% of FGA were jumpshots

Luol's jumpshot is partly to blame, and I expect it to top 40% again this year now that he's healthy. But the data seems to suggest that Luol's return to 2007 efficiency is also dependent upon playing more PF. With the news that James Johnson is practicing exclusively at SF, I'd say the chances are good.

Why does this year feel so much worse than last?

YaoPau — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 20:01:17 -0000

Here's what I know about last season:

1) We gave several stiffs big minutes.

Larry Hughes averaged 26.4mpg in 30 games for us.
Drew Gooden averaged 29.6mpg in 31 games.
Andres Nocioni played 24.1mpg in 53 games.
Gray, Hughes, Gooden, Nocioni and Sefolosha combined for 67 starts.

2) Joakim, Tyrus, Rose, and Deng were really bad over long stretches last year.

Joakim's numbers in November (15.9mpg, 3.1ppg, 0.8apg, 5.1rpg, 40% shooting) were bad. He wasn't a regular rotation player, and played 30mpg just once in his first 30 (!) games.
Tyrus was equally bad in November. In 19.9mpg, he shot 35.4% from the field. That play lost him his starting job. He got it back two months later, and finally hit his stride in February.
Rose struggled to score for most of the season. From December through March (58 games), he posted a 50.2 TS%.
Deng's .511 TS%, 10.1 TRB%, and 9.0 AST% were each his lowest marks since his rookie season.

Yet we still won 41 games. Shouldn't we easily be better this year? Let's break it down further...

POSITION BY POSITION

From 82games....

PG - 2008 minutes breakdown: Rose 75%, Hinrich 15%, Hunter 5%, Gordon 3%

Similar breakdown this year, with Pargo replacing Gordon's 3%. I'm assuming Rose will improve, meaning the PG position as a whole should improve, even if Hinrich falls off a tad.

SG - 2008 minutes breakdown: Gordon 64%, Hinrich 18%, Hughes 8%, Thabo 4%, Salmons 1%

Salmons takes Gordon's minutes, and Hinrich and Pargo absorb the remaining 36%. Slightly worse starter, better bench. Overall, I think it's about a wash.

SF - 2008 minutes breakdown: Deng 36%, Salmons 22%, Thabo 12%, Hughes 10%, Noc 7%, Gordon 6%, Tim Thomas 2%

Thabo, Hughes, Noc, Tim Thomas and other scrubs (LJ3, Nichols) combined for around 1/3 of our SF minutes. This year, Deng, Salmons, Johnson, and Hinrich take the full load, with Deng hopefully taking 60%+ of it. Deng returning to form (even 07-08 form) significantly improves this position.

PF - 2008 minutes breakdown: Tyrus 48%, Noc 23%, Gooden 8%, Noah 7%, Deng 4%, Tim Thomas 4%

Tyrus, Luol, and James Johnson will take most of the minutes, with Noah and Taj filling in. We aren't strong at PF, but we were really really bad last season.

C - 2008 minutes breakdown: Noah 41%, Miller 18%, Gray 17%, Gooden 14%, Tyrus 6%, Noc 1%

Noah and Miller should take 80+% of the minutes. If Noah just starts the season well, we'll get a boost over last year. Miller absorbs Gooden's minutes, and that'll help on both sides of the ball.

That's three positions with improvements (PG, SF, C), and two where we're probably about the same (SG, PF).

OVERALL, THE OUTLOOK

We lose Gordon's 82 games. But we can get 55 more from Salmons, 55 more from Miller, 32 more from Deng, 30 more from Hinrich. Noah and Tyrus probably won't waste their first 20 games like they did last year. I doubt Rose has another 58 game slump. VDN now has 89 games under his belt. Overall we're in line to improve.

And here's what I know about the rest of the Eastern Conference: the Heat lost Jamario Moon for nothing, and Beasley had a rough offseason. The Bucks lost half their team. The Pacers lost Jack and Nesterovic and added Hansbrough. Detroit added perimeter scorers, but defense is a question. The Bobcats traded Okafor for Chandler, and drafted Gerald Henderson. Philly gets Brand back, but replaced Andre Miller with a 19 year old PG. The Raptors got Turkoglu and acquired some nice depth, but lost Marion and Anthony Parker. The Wizards got Randy Foye and Mike Miller and get Arenas/Haywood back. I admittedly like the Wizards this year, but besides them, nobody scares me.

Hollinger just projected us at 38 wins. fundamentallysound said that the apbrmetrics stat gurus all had us between 36-38 wins pretty consistently. And recently I've felt myself getting pessimistic about this season. But that pessimism doesn't make sense.

If we win 38 games, that's a 2008-level disappointment. We should win at least as many games again this year, and these signs point to a big improvement. 45 wins? 47? 50? I think it's possible, and rational.

Why so few TDs last year?

YaoPau — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 18:21:13 -0000

I'm from Chicago and didn't get to watch many Texans games last year, curious about an oddity...

Your team finished 3rd in total offense last year with 382.1 yards per game. You've got Schaub, and Slaton, and Andre, and Walter, and Owen Daniels, just loaded with talent.

Yet despite all those yards, the Texans scored just 37 offensive touchdowns, putting them behind teams like the Miami Dolphins, just ahead of my lowly Chicago Bears (35), and well behind a Saints (54) team that got just 30 more yards per game.

I'm thinking of taking Schaub in fantasy, but 24 TDs in 22 games as a starter doesn't make sense to me. What's the reason for the lack of TDs?

Cavs re-sign Varejao, sign Parker

YaoPau — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:59:57 -0000

Cavs re-sign Varejao, sign Parker

6 years, 42.5 million for Varejao, with incentives that could push the contract to 50 million. I can't imagine Tyrus's value is higher than Varejao's, so that's about what it'll take to sign him: $7-8 million per.

Pistons hire Kuester

YaoPau — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 18:44:55 -0000

Pistons hire Kuester

Evidently, Kuester was to Mike Brown's offense as Thibodeau was to Doc Rivers' defense, albeit with less fanfare. From a Hollinger article last year (oddly enough about VDN's crappiness):

"Brown's solution this season was to outsource the offense to assistant John Kuester, much as Doc Rivers turned his defense over to assistant Tom Thibodeau a year ago to spark Boston's march to the title. Brown's move has worked brilliantly -- the Cavs finished this season fourth in offensive efficiency and improved by 21 games."

Seems like a smart move given the new faces in Detroit.

Knicks get #29 pick from Lakers

YaoPau — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 17:51:33 -0000

Knicks get #29 pick from Lakers

From DraftExpress:

"A source with the New York Knicks tells us that they've acquired the #29 pick from the LA Lakers in exchange for 3 million dollars in cash."