SB Nation User Blog: YaoPau

Reining in the media

YaoPau — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 21:59:11 -0000

The Bulls since MJ left town:

12 years... 5 head coaches... 14 top-sixteen draft picks... 338-554 W-L record.
#1 in the NBA four of the last six years in Operating Income.
0 luxury tax dollars paid.

If this happened with any other team (besides maybe the Cubs, more on that later), the media would tear management apart. Owners like Al Davis and Donald Sterling have been mocked continuously. The Bears have three bad seasons and fans call for everyone's head.

But the Bulls, 12 years into one of the worst extended runs in professional sports, continue gliding by with little criticism. Despite all of Jerry's cheapness, I've seen just two reporters call him out on it. One works for FanHouse.com, the other for ChicagoNow. Despite all of Vinny's awful coaching decisions, I've seen just one reporter ask him about his job security, and he works for The Score.

Where is the Tribune? The Sun-Times? ESPN1000? Comcast? Chicago has plenty of media outlets that have no problem railing on the Bears, but stay quiet when the Bulls screw up worse, and for a longer period of time.

I did a little digging, and found Jerry plays a role in all of this. Some of this might be already known, but I had no idea until recently:

1) The reason Reinsdorf originally bought the Bulls. From an SI article in 1997:

"I felt owning the Bulls would help with the White Sox, since it would give me more leverage when dealing with sponsors."

More leverage, hmm. Let's see how he's played his cards...

2) Reinsdorf and WMVP (ESPN1000)

In 2004, when Jay Mariotti was working for the Sun-Times, he was highly critical of Reinsdorf's management of the White Sox. Reinsdorf was pissed about it, but as long as Mariotti was working for the Sun-Times, he was powerless to stop it.

But that February, WMVP (the station that aired Bulls games, now known as ESPN1000) gave Mariotti his own morning show. Reinsdorf wasn't happy, with these quotes from the Tribune:

The chairman of the Sox and Bulls ... thought he had a voice in what airs on WMVP.

Reinsdorf expressed his views through his public relations director, Scott Reifert:

"The thing we question is that they have invested millions of dollars in promoting these teams," Reifert said. "Now they are bringing in somebody who has made it his business to devalue those investments. It doesn't make sense from a business perspective."

One other tiff occurred when Marc SIlverman and Carmen DeFalco interviewed Reinsdorf in April. Evidently, Jerry expected an interview about Opening Day baseball while the hosts asked about other topics. Jerry responded with:

''I hope you enjoyed [the interview] because I won't be on with you guys again. You conducted this interview under false pretenses, and you won't get another bite at the apple.''

The merit of the questions aside, the timing of this event and Mariotti's hiring was not great for WMVP, as noted in this Sun-Times article the next day:

"The station is negotiating a new contract with Reinsdorf to retain the broadcast rights for both teams, and the interview won't help"

You know what happened next. Mariotti was fired in December, prompting this report from the Tribune:

Jay Mariotti is off Chicago’s airwaves, and he says his departure from ESPN Radio’s WMVP-AM 1000 is the result of the station’s desire to curry favor with the White Sox and Bulls.

Mariotti said the station asked him to tone down his criticism of the Bulls and White Sox, whose games are broadcast on WMVP and whose contracts are close to expiring.

In a big fuck you to WMVP, Reinsdorf instead signed a 4-year deal to broadcast games on WCKG, with this lovely quote included:

In conjunction with the move, the Bulls also announced they will be bringing all radio production and sales efforts "in-house." All aspects relating to the production of game broadcasts and the sale of advertising inventory for those broadcasts will be controlled by the team.

The next year, WCKG changed formats, and WMVP brought the Bulls back a year later and continue broadcasting the games today. They still allow the Bulls to use their own radio team, and (in my opinion as a listener) have dramatically softened their criticism of the team. Lesson learned.

3) Reinsdorf and Comcast SportsNet

Do you know who owns Comcast SportsNet? Reinsdorf!

Maybe I'm just naive, but I had no idea. He owns a 40% stake, with Rocky Wirtz owning 20%, Tom Ricketts owning 20%, and Comcast owning the remaining 20%. Comcast SportsNet's wikipedia entry mentions that:

Comcast SportsNet Chicago was created so the teams mentioned could have editorial control over their broadcasts, unlike the past 'produced by' arrangements with the now-defunct FSN Chicago.

Weird. So the entire broadcast (with halftime and postgame analysis) is produced by the Bulls. And the entire radio broadcast is produced by the Bulls. When Jason Goff wondered why his VDN job security question was "deemed inappropriate by Mark Schanowski and Kendall Gill" it's because Schanowki and Gill work for Reinsdorf.

Speaking of Comcast...

4) Reinsdorf and the Tribune

We know KC Johnson is often featured on Comcast's pregame broadcasts. But he's also often featured on another Comcast show: Chicago Tribune Live. The city's biggest newspaper has a show on Reinsdorf's channel. Add to it that the Tribune company was also a part owner in Comcast with Reinsdorf for years, and that Sam Zell (the Tribune's previous owner) was a part owner of the White Sox prior to his Cubs purchase, and there's reasons galore for a pro-Bulls bias.

Who knows what happens now that the Tribune sold its Comcast share to Ricketts. There's still plenty of JerryMoney floating in to keep them on their best behavior, but maybe (hopefully) this will signal a slight diversion.

Others...

I couldn't find anything directly connecting Reinsdorf and the Sun-Times or Daily Herald or The Score, which could partially explain the support for McGraw and Goff in these parts.

Overall

This post along with Mind of Dorf isn't so much to argue that Reinsdorf is the reason for the Bulls failures (Pax and Skiles and VDN all deserve blame), but Reinsdorf is the reason why things have been so slow to turn around.

When you fail to pay the luxury tax, fail to bring in a proven coach, fail to extend your players, and play the media so that 1) your production team covers all local TV and radio broadcasts, 2) you own the biggest stake in your city's local sports channel, and 3) you have in's with the city's biggest sports radio station and 4) newspaper... there's very little incentive to get your shit in gear, especially as the money continues to pour in.

In the meantime, send Jason Goff some praise. It's pathetic that only one reporter is willing to ask tough questions, but I want him to know he's got support among the fans. Hopefully Thonus continues to be critical of the organization as well.

Vinny's 3rd year is guaranteed

YaoPau — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:14:12 -0000

Vinny's 3rd year is guaranteed

Maybe this is known already, but it's the first time I've seen it confirmed.

This KC article is also the first I've seen to suggest a coaching change. 32pt losses to bad teams can be good, sometimes.

The Mind of Dorf

YaoPau — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:51:26 -0000

SoulEater linked to a video showing Reinsdorf talking about being from Brooklyn and making oodles of money. There's a small discussion going on at that fanshot, but I think there's more to this, as looking at things from Reinsdorf's perspective gives logical reasons for the ostensibly dumb decisions Bulls management has made. Thus, this.

First, a couple quotes from the video stuck out to me:

I came to Chicago to go to law school. After I graduated, I stayed in Chicago and worked as an attorney, then I became a tax lawyer at a private practice, then I got involved in making real estate investments for clients, and after that sport. I had a lot of luck along the way. I had a company that I built up and then sold, and then two years later the real estate business went south. So I'm glad I sold it when I did, I wouldn't have gotten nearly as much money as I did, so there's the luck of it.

Kenny Williams' job is to identify talent and evaluate talent. My job is to make sure he doesn't spend too much money on it.

It's easy to look at Reinsdorf as the idiot cheapskate who hired VDN (ha!), blew the D'Antoni signing (haha!) and lost Gordon (Haaaaaaa!) for nothing. But in reality, this guy's brilliant. According to his wikipedia, he wasn't born into money, but he got into GW undergrad, Northwestern Law, then after a few different jobs, he started a company he sold nine years later for $102 million. He bought the White Sox a year earlier for $19 million, then got a controlling interest in the Bulls by paying $9.2 million. Fast forward 25 years, and those teams are worth nearly $1 billion combined. Damn. And you know what that means...

We've got a self-made billionaire in charge!! And in most cases, that's a good thing! Except there's another quote from his wikipedia:

A life-long baseball fan who grew up in the shadows of Ebbets Field, Reinsdorf was in the stands the day Jackie Robinson debuted for the Brooklyn Dodgers, breaking the color barrier which prevented black players from serving on Major League teams.

Oops. Our self-made billionaire is a baseball fan. Remember him saying he'd trade all six of his Bulls championships for one White Sox championship? Years later, I think he meant it.

BULL MARKET

Forbes has ranked the most valuable NBA franchises each of the past five years, and notes their profit from the past season. And granted, Jerry has a huge metropolitan area all to himself, and having MJ's banner in the stadium helps mightily. But other franchises are in big markets too, and some have current superstars on their team. And even though the Bulls were mediocre last year and terrible over the past decade, Jerry pocketed $55 million last year. That's #1 in the NBA, ahead of the Lakers and well ahead of the Magic and Spurs and Celtics. 10 teams lost money last year. Not Jerry. Show 'em the stats!

$55 million profit in 2008 (#1 in NBA)
$59 million profit in 2007 (#1 in NBA)
$48 million profit in 2006 (#1 in NBA)
$35 million profit in 2005 (#3 in NBA)
$37 million profit in 2004 (#1 in NBA)

Who else can say THREEPEAT!??!

Huge profits, few wins. Reinsdorf is running the team like an investor. And when you view his transactions from that perspective more things start to make sense.

THE GORDON PROBLEM

Take the contract Gordon signed with Detroit: 5 years, $66 million. Seems like fair value for an efficient 20ppg scorer, right? Let's take the perspective of a financial investment.

First off, the payout side. Gordon's scheduled to make $10 million this year, but if you replace Pargo's salary with Gordon's, the puts our payroll at $77 million, or $8 million into the luxury tax. Add in the $3 million or so of luxury tax revenues we'd forfeit by leaping into the tax, and Gordon would've cost Jerry $10+$8+$3= $21 million this year, and at least $77 million over the five year contract.

Now for what Gordon brings in this year. If I'm reading the following linked article correctly, NBA teams already share TV and Merchandise revenue. Any extra jersey sales or TNT games that Gordon would bring in (admittedly relatively little) wouldn't factor into Reinsdorf's bank account. Therefore, the financial benefit of Gordon comes from:

(1) Increased Regular Season Ticket Sales ...except the Bulls lead the league in ticket sales this year, and have sold out most of the last ten years. Granted, there have been some 300-level discounts this year, but that likely wouldn't have changed with Gordon aboard.

(2) Playoff Home Games ... Each extra game brings in a packed house! Except, how much would Gordon actually add? On SoulEater's fanshot, I said that on July 1st, I would've guessed the Bulls could've expected 2.5 home playoff games this season without Gordon. We figured we'd be a #5/#6 seed, and probably lose 4-1, 4-2, or 4-3. That's between 2 and 3 home games. With Gordon, what would've been our expectations? 3 playoff home games? 3.5?

And playoff per game revenue might not be as high as you think. Here's a quote from a relevant article I found about the Jazz:

For years, it's been rumored that NBA teams pocket about $1 million for each home playoff game. But that figure, Rigby said, is high. For one thing, the NBA takes a 45-percent cut of each home gate during the playoffs (up from just 6 percent per home game during the regular season) to cover its annual expenses.

Even at $1 million per home game, having Gordon on board would only net an expected $1 million extra. Even with the crappiness of our current team, adding Gordon likely adds just $2-3 million.

I'm not an expert at this, and there's a chance I'm leaving something out. But from what I see, combine those two, and having Gordon this year probably adds just a small fraction of that $21 million to Jerry's bottom line. And yes, Gordon gives you a better chance at a superstar via sign and trade, providing what would be a long-term increase in revenue. But that's risky, and besides, there's a chance you could sign a superstar outright. Also, it's true Gordon can provide more regular season wins and playoff home games over the course of 5 years. But at a $77 million cost, that's a looooot of extra wins he'd need to provide, making it pretty damn improbable.

THE REST

Add in the immediate breakup of the dynasty, the cheap coaches, the trading of Brand and Artest before extension talks, the trading of Chandler for expirings, the trading of Curry for cheaper rookies, the loss of Gordon and probably Tyrus for nothing before their extensions, and it makes sense. Like sheep, Bulls fans (me included) continue to pack the stadium regardless of the product, giving Reinsdorf zero incentive to pay more than he has to to keep the media (which it seems like he has a hand in again (see: KC Johnson, ESPN radio, Comcast commentators who rarely say a bad word about him)) off his back.

That said, I don't think any of this makes him anything besides a good businessman. I as a fan couldn't give a crap about Reinsdorf the person, I just want him to spend his own money for my benefit. So why should he give a crap about me? He is what he is, and by nature he operates to earn.

If there's any good news, it's that I trust Jerry when he says he'll go into the luxury tax if he feels that would make the Bulls a final four team, because it makes financial sense. Take a team to the Finals, and season tickets and premium suites sell like hotcakes. The good advertising and branding alone is worth millions, the sponsorship deals tens of millions more. The problem is getting to that point.

And the solution, of course, is simple: empty seats.

Open Game Thread / Game Preview #8: Bulls vs. Raptors

YaoPau — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:33:05 -0000

[Thanks to YaoPau for today's game preview -ed.]

Do you Noah good rebounder? I do.

pa-ching.

Maybe we should start calling it Cantada, because they can't rebound.

pa-ching.

Bosh does well at 11reb per 36, then it's Bargnani's 6.8, Turkoglu's 4.5, Jack's 3.0, Calderon's 2.8. When Taj Gibson would be your team's 2nd best rebounder, you better be awesome at everything else.

They are offensively: 1st in O-Rating so far. Their .591 TS% is ridiculous, and they're top-3 in threes per game, free throws per game, and fewest turnovers. Lots of shooters, good passers, Turkoglu's been a nice fit.

Defensively, they're dead last. They ranked 22nd last year, and since lost Shawn Marion, Jamario Moon, Jermaine O'Neal and Anthony Parker, so it's likely not a fluke. They're bottom-3 in threes per game allowed, free throws per game allowed, and turnovers forced. It's like their defense is allowing it's own offensive gameplan. Weird team. Really weird.

Not surprisingly, they're 3-4 with a good win over Cleveland and a bad loss to Memphis. With all the 3pt shots taken in Raptors games and their overall averageness, game to game fluctuation will happen. Flip a coin for who wins tonight, especially with the Bulls in Toronto.

But our blueprint to victory involves controlling the glass. The Bulls are 6th in OREB%+DREB% at 1.034, while the Raptors are 27th at .957, and Reggie Evans is still out with a foot sprain. I get worried whenever two evenly matched teams play and one has an enormous advantage in one factor - it's hard to match that advantage in reality. But if we do, and the Raptors don't shoot lights out from 3, we should have this in the bag.

Few questions:

(1) Will the Bulls take advantage of Toronto's inability to guard the 3 and the paint? (That involves taking shots in those two locations.)

(2) When Bargnani pulls Taj/Joakim away from the basket, will Deng help keep Bosh off the boards? SFs have averaged almost 9rpg against Toronto this year, and Deng could be in line for a big boxscore.

(3) Is Rose healthy enough to penetrate consistently? With Calderon on him and Bargnani guarding the paint, this is the game to do it.

6pm start time on WCIU.

The Bulls and Young Talent

YaoPau — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:59:17 -0000

I wasn't as high on Tyrus as some, but I would've never, ever guessed he'd be in the doghouse 3 games into the season. Now I wouldn't be surprised if we trade him for next to nothing.

With this coming on the heels of letting Gordon walk, it's easy to see a trend developing. But the sad thing is this has been going on for years. Here's the long line of talented young players the Bulls have traded for pennies on the dollar, or let go for nothing:

ELTON BRAND

Bulls Performance: Two 20/10 seasons on the Bulls
Bulls' Publicized Concern: Elton wasn't happy, there were rumors he didn't want to extend, Krause didn't think he was a superstar.
Trade and Aftermath: Brand for Chandler, Brand goes on to make two all-star games during six straight 18/9 seasons.
String o' Trades: Brand -> Chandler ... Chandler -> PJ Brown, JR Smith ... JR Smith -> Aaron Gray.

RON ARTEST

Bulls Performance: Started nearly every game over 2.5 years playing 31mpg. Terrible shooter, but defensive star with the ability to penetrate and pass.
Bulls' Publicized Concern: Artest's maturity, and like Brand, Jerry Krause didn't think Artest was a superstar to build around.
Trade and Aftermath: Artest and 26-year old Brad Miller for Jalen Rose. Artest became crazy, but also one of the league's elite complementary players, making an all-star team. Miller made two all-star teams. Jalen fizzled immediately and was traded two years later for Antonio Davis.
String o' Trades: Artest, Miller -> Rose ... Rose, Donyell Marshall -> Antonio Davis.

TYSON CHANDLER

Bulls Performance: Averaged 25mpg from ages 19-23, starting 50 games his final year with the Bulls. He was below average offensively, but gained a reputation as a top rebounder and defender while anchoring the 2nd rated defense in 2005.
Bulls' Publicized Concern: Endurance issues made him tire late in games and limited his minutes. And at the time, he wasn't Ben Wallace.
Trade and Aftermath: Chandler for PJ Brown and JR Smith. Chandler finished top-10 in the league in DReb% the next two seasons before injuries limited him last season. He's still just 27.
String o' Trades: Chandler -> PJ Brown, JR Smith ... JR Smith -> Aaron Gray

JR SMITH

Bulls Performance: None.
Bulls Publicized Concerns: Bulls coaches didn't like him.
Trade and Aftermath: Smith for what turned out to be Aaron Gray. Smith is still a poor defender with legitimate maturity issues, but he scored 16ppg in the playoffs over the past two years. He's grown into one of the league's best 3pt shooters, making 40% while attempting 9 per 36min.

BEN GORDON

Bulls Performance: Averaged 18ppg for five seasons as a top sharpshooter, led the Bulls in points scored all five years.
Bulls Publicized Concern: Rumored "me-first" attitude, rift with VDN, below average defense, debatable fit with Derrick Rose.
Trade and Aftermath: Bulls let him walk for nothing.

OTHERS...

Jamal Crawford - Averaged 17ppg for us at age 23 before we traded him essentially for Othella Harrington after Paxson cited improving team defense and commitment.

Matt Bonner - Now the starting PF for the Spurs. We traded him for Chris Duhon.

Chris Duhon - Now the starting PG for the Knicks. Played 25mpg for us for four years. We lost him for nothing after numerous reports that he missed team meetings.

Roger Mason - Was never given a shot here. Started 71 games for the Spurs last year, making 42% of 3s. We lost him for nothing.

Thabo Sefolosha - Decent defender, good rebounder, terrible offensively, but still just 24 years old when we traded him for Taj Gibson. Currently starts for the Thunder.

!!!!!!Eddy Curry!!!!!!! - The one time we've actually benefited from identifying a guy was going to suck! Traded him for Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah.

OVERALL

The Eddy Curry ripping of Isiah Thomas aside...

We've Traded/Let Go:

Elton Brand
Ron Artest
Brad Miller
Tyson Chandler
Ben Gordon
JR Smith
Jamal Crawford
Matt Bonner
Chris Duhon
Roger Mason
Thabo Sefolosha

And Got in Return:

Tyson Chandler
JR Smith
PJ Brown
Jalen Rose
Aaron Gray
Othella Harrington
Chris Duhon
Taj Gibson

Which Turned Out To Be:
PJ Brown
Antonio Davis
Aaron Gray
Othella Harrington
Taj Gibson

Which Currently Is:
Aaron Gray
Taj Gibson

No wonder VDN wants to play Taj so bad! Since the Brand/Chandler trade, we've posted a combined record of 287-373, with two winning seasons and one playoff series victory.

TYRUS' SITUATION

Now another young, talented player looks to be halfway out the door before getting a chance to develop. Like Brand's happiness, Artest's maturity, the staff's not liking Smith, Gordon, Crawford (weird how often this happens), there are concerns, some probably legitimate.

But to me in these situations, there should be two options.

1) Play the guy a ton, recognize internally that he's not going to develop into a star, then move him for better young talent (like we did with Eddy Curry and tried to do with Brand), or

2) Play the guy a ton, and extend him.

The worst, worst, WORST thing to do is bench him, leak your concerns about him to the press, and then try to trade him or let him walk. Especially with a guy like Tyrus who, with his filled box scores and highlight reel plays, would make some GMs salivate.

In my $20 fantasy football league, this tactic is obvious to everyone - when you want to trade someone, put him in your starting lineup and say you like the guy, then when you make him available good offers will pour in. You'd think a $500 million dollar franchise would figure out the same.

Raja Bell could miss most of season with wrist injury

YaoPau — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:38:01 -0000

Raja Bell could miss most of season with wrist injury

It's easy to forget the Bobcats were one of the league's hottest teams in March last year. After starting 22-35, they went 12-5 to move to 1 GB the Bulls for the 8th playoff spot before tanking.

Bell's injury means 35.6mpg has to be relocated (probably to Felton and Gerald Henderson). Bulls playoff chances improve by a couple ticks.

NBA changes traveling rule: 2 steps allowed

YaoPau — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 05:15:03 -0000

NBA changes traveling rule: 2 steps allowed

This is going to make post-play weird...

Half-Price Bulls Tickets, all season, already...

YaoPau — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 06:53:44 -0000

Half-Price Bulls Tickets, all season, already...

Chicago likes it live. The Bulls just halved prices on 300 level tickets to 33 home games, bringing the per-ticket cost to $20. Some tix are decent too, I nabbed four for the Thunder game in row 10 two sections left of center court.

*Edit: Whoops, I thought the promocode was on the page. It's "SAVEON".

Luol at PF

YaoPau — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 21:09:36 -0000

In 2007, Luol averaged 18.8ppg on .560 TS%. Take out that season, and his career TS% is .515. We're all hoping for a resurgent season.

Here's something I haven't noticed before, though. His positional splits from that season (per 48 minutes):

SF: 22.9pts, .502 eFG%, 5.4 FTA, .543 TS%
PF: 29.6pts, .594 eFG%, 6.8 FTA, .633 TS%

Oddly enough, for as well as Deng played at PF in 2007, his minutes at PF have dipped since. Approximate minutes played at PF since '07:

2007: 518 minutes, 17% of his playing time
2008: 161 minutes, 8% of his playing time
2009: 162 minutes, 10% of his playing time

Overall splits from 2007-2009, again per 48 minutes:

SF: 22.5pts, 5.5 fta, 8.6reb, 3.3ast, 2.5to, .532 TS%
PF: 26.8pts, 6.5 fta, 10.6reb, 2.3ast, 2.1to, .597 TS%

The low TS% at SF seems to correlate to his jumpshot percentages over the past three seasons:

2007: 42.6 eFG%, 61% of FGA were jumpshots
2008: 40.6 eFG%, 61% of FGA were jumpshots
2009: 38.1 eFG%, 66% of FGA were jumpshots

Luol's jumpshot is partly to blame, and I expect it to top 40% again this year now that he's healthy. But the data seems to suggest that Luol's return to 2007 efficiency is also dependent upon playing more PF. With the news that James Johnson is practicing exclusively at SF, I'd say the chances are good.

Why does this year feel so much worse than last?

YaoPau — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 20:01:17 -0000

Here's what I know about last season:

1) We gave several stiffs big minutes.

Larry Hughes averaged 26.4mpg in 30 games for us.
Drew Gooden averaged 29.6mpg in 31 games.
Andres Nocioni played 24.1mpg in 53 games.
Gray, Hughes, Gooden, Nocioni and Sefolosha combined for 67 starts.

2) Joakim, Tyrus, Rose, and Deng were really bad over long stretches last year.

Joakim's numbers in November (15.9mpg, 3.1ppg, 0.8apg, 5.1rpg, 40% shooting) were bad. He wasn't a regular rotation player, and played 30mpg just once in his first 30 (!) games.
Tyrus was equally bad in November. In 19.9mpg, he shot 35.4% from the field. That play lost him his starting job. He got it back two months later, and finally hit his stride in February.
Rose struggled to score for most of the season. From December through March (58 games), he posted a 50.2 TS%.
Deng's .511 TS%, 10.1 TRB%, and 9.0 AST% were each his lowest marks since his rookie season.

Yet we still won 41 games. Shouldn't we easily be better this year? Let's break it down further...

POSITION BY POSITION

From 82games....

PG - 2008 minutes breakdown: Rose 75%, Hinrich 15%, Hunter 5%, Gordon 3%

Similar breakdown this year, with Pargo replacing Gordon's 3%. I'm assuming Rose will improve, meaning the PG position as a whole should improve, even if Hinrich falls off a tad.

SG - 2008 minutes breakdown: Gordon 64%, Hinrich 18%, Hughes 8%, Thabo 4%, Salmons 1%

Salmons takes Gordon's minutes, and Hinrich and Pargo absorb the remaining 36%. Slightly worse starter, better bench. Overall, I think it's about a wash.

SF - 2008 minutes breakdown: Deng 36%, Salmons 22%, Thabo 12%, Hughes 10%, Noc 7%, Gordon 6%, Tim Thomas 2%

Thabo, Hughes, Noc, Tim Thomas and other scrubs (LJ3, Nichols) combined for around 1/3 of our SF minutes. This year, Deng, Salmons, Johnson, and Hinrich take the full load, with Deng hopefully taking 60%+ of it. Deng returning to form (even 07-08 form) significantly improves this position.

PF - 2008 minutes breakdown: Tyrus 48%, Noc 23%, Gooden 8%, Noah 7%, Deng 4%, Tim Thomas 4%

Tyrus, Luol, and James Johnson will take most of the minutes, with Noah and Taj filling in. We aren't strong at PF, but we were really really bad last season.

C - 2008 minutes breakdown: Noah 41%, Miller 18%, Gray 17%, Gooden 14%, Tyrus 6%, Noc 1%

Noah and Miller should take 80+% of the minutes. If Noah just starts the season well, we'll get a boost over last year. Miller absorbs Gooden's minutes, and that'll help on both sides of the ball.

That's three positions with improvements (PG, SF, C), and two where we're probably about the same (SG, PF).

OVERALL, THE OUTLOOK

We lose Gordon's 82 games. But we can get 55 more from Salmons, 55 more from Miller, 32 more from Deng, 30 more from Hinrich. Noah and Tyrus probably won't waste their first 20 games like they did last year. I doubt Rose has another 58 game slump. VDN now has 89 games under his belt. Overall we're in line to improve.

And here's what I know about the rest of the Eastern Conference: the Heat lost Jamario Moon for nothing, and Beasley had a rough offseason. The Bucks lost half their team. The Pacers lost Jack and Nesterovic and added Hansbrough. Detroit added perimeter scorers, but defense is a question. The Bobcats traded Okafor for Chandler, and drafted Gerald Henderson. Philly gets Brand back, but replaced Andre Miller with a 19 year old PG. The Raptors got Turkoglu and acquired some nice depth, but lost Marion and Anthony Parker. The Wizards got Randy Foye and Mike Miller and get Arenas/Haywood back. I admittedly like the Wizards this year, but besides them, nobody scares me.

Hollinger just projected us at 38 wins. fundamentallysound said that the apbrmetrics stat gurus all had us between 36-38 wins pretty consistently. And recently I've felt myself getting pessimistic about this season. But that pessimism doesn't make sense.

If we win 38 games, that's a 2008-level disappointment. We should win at least as many games again this year, and these signs point to a big improvement. 45 wins? 47? 50? I think it's possible, and rational.