SB Nation User Blog: YaoPau

Watching Olympic Basketball

YaoPau — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 02:03:11 -0000

Watching Olympic Basketball

Olympic basketball officially started an hour ago. For those who want to watch it live, click the link above or go to nbcolympics.com, then click Basketball on the left side. I'm currently watching my favorite player, Andrei Kirilenko, do things to Iran that Dick Cheney would be hesitant about. And Veektor is playing!

Here's the upcoming schedule

Aug 9 9:00 PM ET Basketball - Men's Basketball - Preliminary round Group A game 1 (RUS vs IRI)
Aug 9 11:15 PM ET Basketball - Men's Basketball - Preliminary round Group B game 1 (GER vs ANG)
Aug 10 2:30 AM ET Basketball - Men's Basketball - Preliminary round Group B game 2 (ESP vs GRE)
Aug 10 4:45 AM ET Basketball - Men's Basketball - Preliminary round Group A game 2 (LTU vs ARG)
Aug 10 8:00 AM ET Basketball - Men's Basketball - Preliminary round Group A game 3 (AUS vs CRO)
Aug 10 10:15 AM ET Basketball - Men's Basketball - Preliminary round Group B game 3 (USA vs CHN)

Dirk, Ricky Rubio, Rudy Fernandez, the conjoined Gasol twins, Sofoklis Shortsanitis, and probably Dino Radja all play in the next twelve hours.

Fazekas gets his release

YaoPau — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 16:57:41 -0000

Fazekas gets his release

Nick Fazekas asked the Clips to withdraw their qualifying offer so he could become an unrestricted free agent, and they agreed to do so yesterday.

Fazekas is no star, but from watching him play a few times at Nevada, he's the big man with a jumpshot (Malik Allen / Darius Songaila) that we don't have on our current roster and who could fit in so nicely with Rose. And even though most of his minutes were in garbage time last year, his 19.6 PER and per36 stats of 14.3 points, 11.9 boards are impressive.

For us Hollinger fans, Hollinger projected Fazekas as the #7 player in the 2007 draft. It's not a guarantee for success (tell 'em, Mike Sweetney), but it's another reason why he's worth a look, especially since we can sign him for next to nothing.

Vujacic ready to walk

YaoPau — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:36:31 -0000

Vujacic ready to walk

"Lakers reserve guard Sasha Vujacic, a restricted free agent, is prepared to leave the team and accept an offer from a European team in the next few days if the Lakers don't make him an offer he deems fair, according to a source in the Vujacic camp who spoke only on the condition of anonymity. The source said Vujacic is seeking a multiyear deal from the Lakers averaging about $5 million a year. Vujacic was hoping for a six-year deal, but anticipated it could be a shorter contract."

Nobody wants to make the Lakers better than they are, but for those of us who aren't that high on Gordon, Vujacic seems like a decent replacement. As a 24 year old last year listed at 6'7", he put up an ungodly .605 TS% and showed he isn't afraid to take the big shot. (Not a great defender though, from what I remember.)

The article implies that the Lakers probably won't match any offer over $5 mil per year. 6 years, $30 mil contract seems like a steal for a great complement to Thabo's game.

One possibility is trade Gordon and our exception for Vujacic, Trevor Ariza, and Farmar... making Hinrich and Nocioni easier to unload.

Wizards sign Dee Brown

YaoPau — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 05:23:49 -0000

Wizards sign Dee Brown

The only Euroball castoff to still list two nicknames in his blogpost signatures is back in the NBA!

There's not much more to write about this, but I know there's a few fellow Illini alums here that will be happy to see him back in the league. Roger Powell patiently waits.

What Paxson Is Thinking

YaoPau — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 17:51:06 -0000

Ever since the Doug Collins rumors died, there have been trade ideas popping up on BaB to get us Camby, VC, Odom, and Brand in an attempt to compete in the East this year. But from what I've seen from Paxson lately, that's just not the direction he's going. Here are his moves of note:

- Hired Vinny Del Negro as head coach
- Drafted Derrick Rose
- Traded for Omer Asik
- No pursuit, not even rumored pursuit, of any free agents so far this offseason

These are not the moves of a GM looking to win now. These aren't even the moves of a GM looking to win before 2010. Everything he's done this offseason seems to indicate two things: 1) he wants to give Rose ample time to develop into a superstar, and 2) he wants to sign a second star in 2010.

Paxson wants to give this team time

Think about it. If Paxson wanted to win now, he would've hired Collins or Avery Johnson, not Del Negro and his zero years of coaching experience. He would've drafted Michael Beasley, the inside scorer that we needed right away, and not Derrick Rose, who now forces us to unload Hinrich or Gordon in the near future. He would've used his secound round pick on somebody who can play this year, not on Asik who won't be here until at least 2010. And he would've at least made some effort to nab Jermaine O'Neal or Elton Brand... but he hasn't.

Combine that with two recent quotes that stuck out to me:

"Derrick's not a guy we're going to look at and say, `Come in and right away [and start],' " Paxson said. "He's got to earn that given the chance. But we're not going to throw him into this thing and say you have to do everything right now. We'll give him time."

"Let's face it, we haven't had a star player here in a long, long time,'' said Paxson, those six NBA championship trophies located about 20 feet from where he did his post-draft presser. "We're not putting that tag on Derrick, but in building a team we have to be realistic with what happened to us last year … I think Derrick is a type of piece we haven't had, and I think he's going to be terrific.''

Paxson realizes that the reason why the Bulls haven't won is because they "haven't had a star player". He also realizes that Rose has a chance to be that "type of piece we haven't had". And he's willing to "give him time" to make that happen. Because the Bulls currently have no stars, it would go against Paxson's own beliefs to try to contend for a title this year. And so Paxson is going to let this team grow.

Paxson wants to add another star

That gives him three options: 1) Re-sign everybody and try to win it all with the current roster after Rose turns into a star, 2) make a trade this year or next for a big name inside scorer, or 3) prepare for 2010 and make a run at Wade and Bosh.

Option #1 requires Paxson to take a huge leap of faith - that Rose is good enough to put our 33-win team on his back and carry them to a championship. And that's unlikely. Besides, Paxson has made it clear in the past that he wants to bring in an inside scorer. Option #2 is plausible, but we've already passed up on two inside scorers (Brand and Jermaine), and besides them, who could we get? Odom, Rasheed Wallace, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry, Brad Miller, and Shaq are about the best big men we could realistically trade for between now and 2010, but none of them will be star players in a couple years when Rose starts hitting his prime. Vince Carter is another trade option, but if he couldn't win a title in his prime alongside Kidd and Jefferson, he probably won't do it now that his career is on the downslope.

2010 is the easiest way to land another star. Not only is it the exact time we expect Rose to rise into stardom, but it will be fairly easy for us to get into a position to make a generous offer for another young, true star like Wade, Bosh or Boozer, Dirk, Amare or LeBron.

One problem. If we re-sign all of our core players through 2010, here's an estimation of how our payroll will look:

Deng: $10 mil
Gordon: 10
Hinrich: 9
Nocioni: 7
Tyrus: 7
Thabo: 5
Rose: 5
Noah: 3
'09 1st rounder: 2
'10 1st rounder: 2

Total: $60 million, putting us just over the expected salary cap, meaning we'll have to shed about $20 million to be able to offer a max contract. That means three of the four of Hinrich, Gordon, Thabo, Nocioni will have to go.

The Plan: How Paxson can shed $20 million while properly developing Rose, Tyrus, and Joakim

These are fun.

Step 1: Trade Hinrich and Nocioni now for cap space. Hinrich and Nocioni are our two easiest pieces to trade right away, and it would be smart to get most of the salary-clearing out of the way this offseason. Because Golden State is under the cap, they can take on more salary than they give out. Because Baron Davis departed, they'll want Hinrich. I'd propose Hinrich and Nocioni for Al Harrington, and play Harrington as Deng's backup and as our 3rd PF. His contract is up in '10.

Step 2: Sign backups. Next, we'll need to round out this year's roster. After last season's Joe Smith debacle, I'd imagine Paxson's main intention is to find veteran players who will complement our young guys, not take away their minutes.

We could use help in two areas: 1) a big interior defender, and 2) a pass-first point guard.

Big interior defender: Tyrus and Noah held their own against some of the top names in the league last year, but they ran into trouble against the wide-bodies like Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins, as Tyrus and Noah were too thin and Aaron Gray was too Aaron Gray. Two possible options to solve that problem are unrestricted FAs DJ Mbenga and Theo Ratliff, both of whom we could sign for the low-level exception. Either one would help Tyrus and Noah without jeopardizing their playing time.

Pass-first point guard: I wrote before about how Rose is mostly a drive-and-kick passer instead of one who threads the needle to the big men. With Hinrich gone, it might not be a bad idea to sign a pass-first veteran point who could complement Rose's game. Two possible options are European unrestricted FAs Aaron Miles (PG at Kansas when Hinrich was there), and Theodorus Papaloukas, the best floor leader in Europe right now according to DraftExpress. (I'd suggest a current NBA player if I thought there was anyone worth getting.) Both players are listed among the top 6 overseas free agents and we could probably land one of them with a two-year offer at less than the full mid-level exception.

Step 3: Trade away whoever is the worse fit - Gordon or Thabo - after the '08-'09 season, for an expiring contract. One of them has to go to free up the remaining cap room. Chances are Gordon will be the one that stays, but if Paxson decides Wade is his top target, it doesn't make sense to pay Gordon $10 million to back up Wade.

Step 4: Sign Wade, Bosh, Boozer, Dirk, Amare, or LeBron to a max deal in 2010. Maybe that's easier said than done, but maybe not. Between our big media market, our max deal, and the roster we already have in place, we'll be able to put together an offer than few other teams will be able to match.

And just like that... we'll have two legit stars along with Deng, a 7'4" Tyrus, Noah, Gordon/Thabo, Asik, and two 1st round picks as a dynamite supporting cast. Say hello to six more rings.

Bulls to hire Bickerstaff, possibly Harris and Ociepka

YaoPau — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 15:05:00 -0000

Bulls to hire Bickerstaff, possibly Harris and Ociepka

[From the FanShots -ed.]

"Bernie Bickerstaff is close to finalizing a deal to become an assistant on Vinny Del Negro's staff, sources said. The Bulls are hopeful they also can sign Del Harris, another preferred candidate with whom they have hit minor snags during negotiations. A source said the Bulls have interviewed long-time respected assistant Bob Ociepka."

Regardless of our opinions of Bickerstaff and Harris, I'm just glad we're hiring coaches who have experience managing people. I expect them to bring a level of authority that Adams and Myers did not. Also, Ociepka has 17 years experience as an assistant, and used to coach my high school (York High School)... holy crap!

It's almost like Paxson completely figured everything out after losing out on D'Antoni/Collins. He can do no wrong these past few weeks.

Pete Myers and Ron Adams will not coach next year (!!!)

YaoPau — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 19:26:47 -0000

Pete Myers and Ron Adams will not coach next year (!!!)

Excerpt: "The Bulls are negotiating with at least two experienced coaches to fill Vinny Del Negro's first staff, sources said. Former head coaches Bob Hill, Paul Westphal, Del Harris and Bernie Bickerstaff have interviewed. Harris and Bickerstaff are considered the leading candidates. Holdovers Ron Adams and Pete Myers aren't expected to remain on the bench, although Paxson has maintained they both will have front-office roles."

That, my friends, is spectacular news. And Demetris Nichols is coming back!

Questioning Rose's Court Vision

YaoPau — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 07:01:12 -0000

The mandatory second-thoughts about the sure-thing #1 are creeping in. From Chad Ford's latest post...

Think you've got the Rose-Beasley debate figured out? One respected NBA general manager who's drafting in the second half of the first round said the Bulls and virtually everyone else is getting it wrong.

"Michael Beasley is far and away the best player in this draft," the GM said. "He's going to dominate in this league. How could you pass on him? I know everyone is talking about character this and character that, but come on, he's not a bad kid."

As for Rose, the GM says he thinks he's overrated: "Derrick Rose is a good player, I get that. But he's not a franchise player. I don't think people are getting with Rose what they think they're getting. He's athletic and plays really hard. But he has just decent court vision and can't take over a game offensively."

When asked about the Heat possibly passing on Beasley at No. 2, the GM said, "It's a joke. He's so much better than anything the Heat are going to get offered. I don't understand it."

I think the general consensus here is that Rose can score with the best of them, play above average defense, and do it with top notch drive and work ethic. And I think most of us believe he can take over games offensively - he showed it in the second half of last season.

But his court vision hasn't been talked about enough, and I think the GM has a point. I went to U of I, the same year as Deron Williams. Even when he averaged just 4.5apg his freshman year, everyone at our school knew he was going to be a great passer because a few times each game he'd thread the needle and make you go "damnnnn, how did he see that?"

I don't get that feeling with Rose though. I saw 8-9 Memphis games this year, and I don't remember a single highlight-worthy pass. It seems like all the Rose backers (me included) are holding out hope that he'll turn Tyrus into a dunking/scoring machine, but if that were true, then why did Joey Dorsey's scoring average drop from 8.5ppg last year to 6.9ppg this year? Especially against all the midgets in Conference USA...

The more I think about it, Rose isn't the next Deron or Paul - his court vision isn't close to theirs. His game is closer to Stephon Marbury's, though he should be a lot more efficient and a lot less incestual. 22 points and 8 assists will make him a perennial all-star and maybe more, but something tells me he's not the make-everybody-else-better player that we're expecting him to be.

(I'd still take him, though.)

Chad Ford latest mock: Rose & Ryan Anderson

YaoPau — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 03:21:34 -0000

Chad Ford latest mock: Rose & Ryan Anderson

I haven't seen Ryan Anderson play, but he seems pretty talented. A 6'10" 3 point shooter, he averaged 21-10 as a sophomore power forward at Cal. Nbadraft.net rated him just a 6/10 for athleticism, but I'd think any 6'10" sophomore who can put up numbers like that deserves a chance.

My try at draft evaluations

YaoPau — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 00:29:30 -0000

John Hollinger released his Draft Evaluator earlier this week that named Michael Sweetney, Drew Gooden, Marvin Williams, and Sean May as 4 of the 10 best big man prospects since 2002. That, of course, is wrong, and I started trying to improve upon it.

I made my own Evaluator, which I posted and explained here, that projects every lottery pick since 2001 based solely on stats and combine results. Apologies in advance for the length of the post.

As for the Bulls pick, Derrick Rose ranked as the #1 player in this draft, and the 3rd best since 2001 (Durant, Bosh).