SB Nation User Blog: Year2

Has South Carolina Underachieved Under Spurrier?

Year2 — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:12:27 -0000

The question that makes up the title of this post is one often asked, and it's a theme I touched on in Monday's past as present post. I also ran across this quote from Phil Steele today, and it prompted me to do this post:

"I felt USC had the talent the last two years to finish higher than they did in the SEC East. This year they have 11 returning starters (second fewest in the SEC). Spurrier’s squad overachieved in his first season but I feel they’ve underachieved the last three seasons and could easily turn it around."

That's some prime hedge work there, but it does lay out something concrete: SC overachieved in 2005 and underachieved since. Well, there's few things I enjoy more than a good fact check, so away we go.

Over/underachieving ultimately is based on an expectation. Steele bases his on talent. My favorite way to go is with Pythagorean expectation (a.k.a. Pythagorean wins), which gives an approximate win percentage your team should have made it to given the number of points you scored and allowed.

Here's the differences in South Carolina's Pythagorean and real wins under Spurrier (I-AA games have been omitted):

Season	PyWins	Real Wins	Difference
2005	6.13	7	0.87
2006	8.40	7	-1.40
2007	5.41	5	-0.41
2008	5.61	6	0.39

When you see a difference between -1 and 1, that means it's fairly negligable. The 2005 season does come pretty close to overachieving expectations though, as positive 0.87 is close to one. The 2006 season is the only clear indicator either way, with the team underachieving by more than a game. I bet I can guess which game it was they were supposed to win but didn't.

So at least from a performance standpoint, South Carolina has been spot-on with its records the past two seasons. That's not what Steele was talking about though; he believes the performance didn't match the talent on hand. Indeed, take a look at the Pythagorean win percentage over the past four years:

Season	PyWin Pct.
2005	.511
2006	.700
2007	.491
2008	.467

After the near-customary second year bump, performance (as defined by this method) has declined. Or has it?

One thing that folks who work with Pythagorean expectation agree on is the fact that blowouts are outliers that can skew things quite a bit. That's why I always take out games against I-AA competition. No one seems to agree on what the cap for blowouts should be (or even if caps are the correct way to deal with them), but they do make a difference. Take Arizona from last year for example. Its PyWin percentage was .783, until you remove its 70-0 win over Idaho at which point it drops to .712. That's nearly a ten percent swing.

Spurrier's outlier from last year was the 56-6 fire bombing delivered by his alma mater. Remove that one from the mix and the PyWin percentage for the Gamecocks jumps from .467 to .595, an even larger move that Arizona's thanks to all the close games South Carolina played in.

That tells me that there could be some of that hope that Gamecock fans are so familiar with. As bad as things got from time to time, the team wasn't a complete disaster. A .595 winning percentage projects out to seven wins over a 12 game schedule (Florida and I-AA opponent excluded, bowl included), then add the freebie against the I-AA team for an eighth win. That's not the makings of a great team, but it's better than the dire predictions some have been assigning to the team.

I'm okay with leaving out the Florida game in analyzing last year for the benefit of looking at next year, mainly because there is no more hope of taking down the Gators in 2009 as there was in 2008. The Gamecocks won't be a ghastly -11 in turnover margin again, and Stephen Garcia will play better thanks to new quarterbacks coach G.A. Mangus and him not being yanked every third drive for another guy. The defense will have some trouble overcoming its losses, but it won't fall off the map with the vets they do have returning and the steady hand of DC Ellis Johnson at the wheel.

The schedule isn't that forgiving, but yes, there is hope for 2009. There was improvement from 2007 to 2008 (the game in Gainesville excluded), and the weak half of the team should improve. Winning 10 games is probably out of the question, but another six win campaign is less likely than some would have you think.

Classic Moments in Bad SEC Ads: On the Hunt

Year2 — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 04:37:11 -0000

One consequence of SEC football's popularity is that its major personalities often end up in advertisements. Since they are football coaches or players and not actors, and because the ads are usually produced by local ad agencies, we often end up with hilarious results. Over the course of the offseason, we'll be highlighting some of the best ones.

The Pitch: Lumber

The Pitchman: Steve Spurrier

The Setup: Steve Spurrier and his good friend the Yella Fella are on a jungle safari looking for a rare breed of animal. Just when Spurrier is ready to give up, they happen upon a clearing...

The Ad:

Remarks

If I had a dollar for every Spurrier/Osmose ad I saw while growing up, I'd be the one stimulating the economy right now instead of the feds. Thanks to my family's weekly routine of watching the Steve Spurrier Show during lunch after church in the fall as I grew up, I will probably be able to recite the slogan, "If it doesn't say Osmose on the little yellow tag, believe me, you don't want it" until the day I die. I'm sure many of you out there can relate.

I wouldn't find out until much later that the Yella Fella himself is actually an Auburn booster, which makes him odd company for Spurrier to be traipsing through the jungle with. Although, if Steve's automatic first analogy for everything is pressure treated lumber like it is in this spot, then hey, stranger pairs have existed. I'd also like to know what exactly the people in yellow were tailgating for in the middle of a jungle.

Spurrier is far from the only coach to appear in one of these spots (see also: Jim Donnan), but unfortunately, not many of them are out there on YouTube. I'm sure everyone's got a favorite one; they're bad, but they're memorably bad and that's what counts. The one above is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes this series of pitches that go back to the times when Gene Stallings and Pat Dye were the on-screen talent. Maybe now that the Yella Fella has his own YouTube channel (yes, really), some of the old classics will resurface.

So, how to grade this one? Well the type of commercial is classic (Osmose), and it sure is about as trite as they come. However, this came from late enough in Spurrier's career that he seems to actually be trying to be a good actor in it, instead of shooting darts at the cameras with his eyes as some other coaches have done. It's missing something, but I can't quite put my finger on it...

Ah yes, there it is. Get that man a blue shirt, and I'll build a deck off my apartment's balcony.

The Score:

As a side note, I considered reviewing Spurrier's Digiorno commercial with Tyrone Willingham. However upon further review, it's even more painful than I remember. The Otters? Getting outsmarted by Ty? Augh. The official score of that one is: destroys my childhood. See also: "Yeaaaah, click clack."

Got a tip on one for future review? Shoot an email to year2.blog at gmail dot com.

What Happened to SEC Quarterbacks, Part II

Year2 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:32:55 -0000

With the top six teams in passing efficiency of 2004 out of the way in part one, let's continue with the bottom six to see how SEC quarterbacks for 2009 compare with just a few years ago.

2004: Jay Cutler, junior

2009: Larry Smith, sophomore / Mackenzi Adams, senior

I like the potential that Smith has, but Cutler is not the kind of quarterback who comes to Vanderbilt every year. Heck, Cutler is not the kind of quarterback that comes to Vandy every decade. Adams is a serviceable option if something were to happen to Smith or his effectiveness, but at this point we know who and how limited he is. We'll have to see what Smith can do, but he's no Jay Cutler yet.

Verdict: A bit worse

2004: Dondrial Pinkins, senior / Syvelle Newton, sophomore

2009: Stephen Garcia, sophomore

Pinkins was the starter in '04, but Newton ended up with more yards and touchdowns. Both got dinged up some as each were runners, Pinkins moreso than Newton, and some freshman guy named Blake MItchell even saw some mid-season work. Garcia also has some wheels, but with the headman now Steve Spurrier instead of Lou Holtz, his passing is more important. The situation in '09 is not that different than '04, it's just that there's only one guy instead of two.

Verdict: Even

2004: Brodie Croyle, junior / Spencer Pennington, junior / Marc Guillon, sophomore

2009: Greg McElroy, junior

I'll give you $10 if you're not a Tide fan and you could have named Guillon and Pennington both. Croyle was the clear Plan A, but he was lost for the season in a blowout win over Western Carolina in the season's third game. Guillon came in, but he lost his two starts and was benched. Pennington would then finish out the rest of the season, but he was no Croyle. McElroy won this off season's quarterback derby to replace John Parker Wilson. Whether he's better than the '04 situation depends on whether you look at the preseason prospects or the final results.

Verdict: Even (with everything averaged in)

2004: Shayne Boyd, senior / Andre' Woodson, freshman

2009: Mike Hartline, sophomore

Boyd was easily the starter, with Woodson only seeing time when Boyd was injured or at the end of blowouts. Still, he did quite well with the time he did have. Boyd did some things running the ball, but he completed just 52% of his passes in '04 and had more interceptions than touchdowns. Hartline was hardly a smashing success last year, though he no longer has to look over his shoulder at now-receiver Randall Cobb. We'll see how long that lasts. Boyd may not have been Maxwell Award material, but he at least was a senior, and Woodson showed promise for the future.

Verdict: Worse

2004: Three dudes you don't remember a thing about (Ethan Flatt, Michael Spurlock, and Robert Lane)

2009: Jevan Snead, junior

Snead is considered by many to be a legit Heisman Trophy candidate. But did you know the same was true for all three guys the Rebels played in 2004? ^{[citation needed]}

Verdict: Much, much better

2004: Omarr Conner, sophomore

2009: Tyson Lee, senior / Tyler Russell, freshman

Conner was still young in '04, and it showed. He missed a little time to injury but otherwise was the man in Starkville. As you can tell though, the Bulldogs finished last in the conference in passing efficiency. Lee would appear to be a good fit for Dan Mullen's new offense as he's a dual threat guy with spread offenses in his background. He's not that tall though, and he'll be looking over his shoulder at Russell.

Verdict: A little better

So where does that leave us?

Three quarterback situations are better, five are worse, and four are roughly even. Out of the ones that are worse though, three (Auburn, Georgia, Vandy) are comparing to some of the best quarterbacks ever to play at their respective schools and only Auburn is in terrible shape for this year.

Earlier this week, Orson listed out the SEC quarterbacks of 1995 and came to this conclusion:

Ronnie Gordon, Vanderbilt. Freddie Kitchens/Brian Burgdorf, Alabama. Mike Bobo, Hines Ward, and Brian Smith[, Georgia]. Barry Lunney, Arkansas. Danny Wuerffel, Florida. Peyton Manning, Tennessee. Jamie Howard and Herb Tyler, LSU. Josh Nelson, Ole Miss. Steve Taneyhill, South Carolina. Patrick Nix, Auburn. Derrick Taite, Mississippi State. Billie Jack Haskins, Kentucky...

Regression to the mean is the norm in a multifactorial equation like that of quarterback production, and the current bubble of say, Big 12 passers is pretty much what you see in any major conference: around two guys who will get drafted, say one or two lesser but still notable qbs, and the rest are the Derrick Taites of the world, and will do quite well with a dealership or brokerage with their name on it one day.

I would tend to agree. Seeing as how quarterback is the most difficult position to play, it should be no surprise that there aren't usually more than two or three top-shelf guys in any given year. I think the perception that SEC quarterbacking is down comes from the bad situations from last year that carry over to this one (as Dr. Saturday cited), the fact that the Big 12 is at an unprecedented peak for quarterbacking, and that two of the SEC's presumed best guys (Snead and Ryan Mallett) are transfers from elsewhere.

There's nothing much to worry about, overall. The SEC quarterbacks of this year are about as they always are.

Apologies to All

Year2 — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:32:52 -0000

Sometimes work sucks. In the case of last night, it sucked up all the time I was going to spend on part two of the quarterbacks piece. C'est la vie for an IT worker; when you hear "we've got a potential problem in production if we don't fix this today," you gotta fix it today (and thankfully, we did).

So in lieu of some real, substantive content, I give you former Florida linebacker James Bates doing his Steve Spurrier impression. Perhaps it explains Spurrier's troubles in getting top talent in at Columbia, seeing as how he's lost his big recruiting pitch...

James Bates on Steve Spurrier (via chadkoon)

What Happened to SEC Quarterbacks: Part I

Year2 — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:05:20 -0000

Senator Blutarsky asked, "Where did all the QBs go?" yesterday. Matt Hinton at Dr. Saturday gave a good look at quarterbacks among the BCS conferences, and he concluded that it's largely a perception problem in relation to the rest of the nation. It's also is largely a function of three disastrous situations from last year not being rectified.

To take a closer look, here's a comparison between the quarterback situations from 2004, just a few seasons ago, and now. Are things really that much worse? Let's see. The order is that of the 2004 passing efficiency rankings.

2004: Jason Campbell, senior

2009: A runner who can't pass, a passer with no arm, and the guy who couldn't beat either out last year

Campbell is one of the greatest quarterbacks in Auburn history, so comparing just about anyone to him is not fair. Still, the quarterback position for the Tigers of the Plains is an abject disaster, a side effect of a decaying regime. Brandon Cox was solid but not spectacular between '04 and now, but "solid but not spectacular" would be a big upgrade over 2008.

Verdict: Much, much worse now

2004: Chris Leak, sophomore

2009: Tim Tebow, senior

The quarterback position was then a picture of stability just as it is now. Leak's second campaign was his finest, both statistically and qualitatively. Things dipped for Leak in the Meyer/Mullen era as they ran an offense he was ill suited for, but Tebow has been a smashing success and, barring injury, will continue to be in 2009.

Verdict: A bit better

2004: David Greene, senior

2009: Joe Cox, senior

Greene won more games as a starter than any other quarterback in history, so it's hard to compare anyone in Bulldogs history to him. Cox has performed well enough when he's had the chance to play, but he doesn't look destined for stardom in this his final year. He sat behind a good one in Matthew Stafford, so it's hard to knock him for not winning the starting role yet. No he's not as good, but come on. This is David Greene we're talking about.

Verdict: A bit worse

2004: Matt Jones, senior

2009: Ryan Mallett, sophomore

Jones is a very different quarterback than Mallett is, what with his scrambling, improv ability, and speed. Mallett is a tall, pocket bound statue-type quarterback who is the prototypical specimen for a Bobby Petrino offense. Jones was quite good and quite fun to watch, but being a consensus five-star quarterback, Mallett's ceiling is higher. I'm going to call it even for now, but if Mallett lives up to his billing, it will easily swing into the "better" category.

Verdict: Even

2004: Erik Ainge, freshman / Rick Clausen, freshman

2009: A gaping hole of bitterness and sorrow

Tennessee's situation in 2004 wasn't ideal, with dueling freshmen attempting to fill the shoes of Casey Clausen. But you know what? They combined to finish fifth in the conference in passing efficiency and the Vols won 10 games and went to Altanta that year. Ainge ended up not being half bad, too. This season is a much different story. They have Jonathan Crompton, Turnover Machine and Nick Stephens, who couldn't definitively beat out Crompton a year ago. It gets worse in 2010, but that's beyond the scope of this piece.

Verdict: Much worse

2004: Marcus Randall, senior / JaMarcus Russell, freshman

2009: Jordan Jefferson, sophomore

LSU's quarterback platoon in 2004 guided the team to nine wins, with each appearing in every game (except against Troy, when Russell didn't). Randall was never able to fend off the young but talented Russell to hold the position down, but injury and inconsistency kept Russell from keeping Randall on the bench. Jefferson kind of fits the mold of Russell in the "young but talented" department, but this time there's no Randall to compete with. Jarrett Lee is still hanging around, but it's definitely Jefferson's job.

Verdict: Even

Part II tomorrow.

R.I.P. Billy Mays

Year2 — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:05:15 -0000

You know him. Or at least his voice. "HI, BILLY MAYS HERE FOR..."

The king of infomercials is either loved or hated by all, but now he's passed on. I've been watching his show Pitchmen with Anthony Sullivan on Discovery this spring/summer and I thoroughly enjoyed it. Mays could be grating at times, but it was apparent on the show that he's a devoted family man who wasn't afraid to make fun of himself.

So how is this related to college football? He actually played the sport at West Virginia briefly, and you've probably seen him on those funny ESPN360 commercials:

Plus, at least one person thought Mays should have been the top candidate to replace Lee Corso on College GameDay whenever the coach is done:

It had potential, I think.

The SEC has had its share of pitchmen over the years, from Bear Bryant for Coke and Golden Flake to Jimmy "Yella Fella" Rayne for Osmose wood. We've taken a look at some of the not quite so good pitches this off season (which will continue this week), and it's safe to say that the coaches and players of this conference could use some lessons in the art of the pitch.

Anyway, there are some folks out there who plan to wear Mays' trademark blue shirt and khakis this week as a tribute. I don't know if I'll encourage you to go that far, but at least take this opportunity to tell someone close to you that you love them. You never know when that chance will be taken away.

SEC 2009 // South Carolina Leans on Hope, Again

Year2 — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 18:39:16 -0000

SEVENTH IN A SERIES :: The 2008 South Carolina Review

As I write this, I am listening to the album Emphasis! (On Parenthesis) by the Stanton Moore Trio. I feel like the title fits for South Carolina.

South Carolina is coached by Steve Spurrier, offensive genius! (who has yet to engineer a top 40 scoring offense in Columbia). He's a quarterback guru too! (who's yet to have a decent quarterback there). The defense has been pretty good too! (except when it's not).

The cliché at this point would be to state that things haven't gone as expected for Spurrier since he's been to Columbia. But what does that even mean? A lot has to do with your own personal expectations for him when he got there. This is a program that has never been to a bowl game in three consecutive seasons and whose conference titles and 10 win seasons combined can be counted on two fingers. It resides in a state that is not blessed with bountiful talent from which to recruit, and it has to go up against a half dozen established powers in its own conference alone.

Spurrier placed the Gamecocks second in the SEC East in 2005, beat Florida in the process, and finished with a 5-3 SEC record for only the third time since joining the SEC. In 2006 they won eight games, something that's happened just six times since 1980. In 2008, Spurrier guided them to their third bowl in his first four years, something that no other South Carolina coach has done. SC has also been at or above .500 in each of his four seasons, the first such four year stretch since 1987-90. Four-year periods of .500+ ball have happened just five times since World War II, and they've never been longer than four.

The most puzzling aspect of it all for me is the lack of good quarterbacking. So far, the quarterback play under Spurrier in Columbia hasn't been up to the standards of Eric Kresser, much less those of Shane Matthews, Rex Grossman, or Danny Wuerffel. Given the hailstorm of interceptions last year, Steve would probably just take a Noah Brindise if he could.

This could be the year when things work out behind center though. Stephen Garcia is said to be the best quarterback Spurrier has recruited to South Carolina, and he is one of just two four-star singal callers (along with the now-departed Chris Smelley; according to Rivals) the Ol' Ball Coach has brought in. Thanks to staying clean in the off season, Garcia has now actually attended an entire spring practice, and new quarterbacks coach G.A. Mangus could be an upgrade over David Reaves given his impressive resume. Being a former Spurrier quarterback, Mangus would certainly know the offense inside and out.

Of course, that assumes the offense is worth knowing still. Too many people to count have declared that Spurrier has lost his touch, that he's washed up, and that people have figured out his schemes. Not so said Heath Cline, a sports radio host in Columbia who's also worked in Florida and whose word I'd value 50 times more than random national pundits who don't watch South Carolina play much:

Spurrier's still as good a playcaller as he ever was, and his system still works. There were plenty of times last year where receivers were open and the quarterback either didn't make the read, made a bad throw, or was getting sacked. No Spurrier offense can work correctly without a QB. In four years in Columbia, he hasn't one worth a darn yet.

I can back that up anecdotally. I watched Spurrier's coach show several times last season, and it was full of him saying things like, "Well, we had a receiver open over on the weak side, but we didn't make the read right and now we make a bad throw."

Replacing WR Kenny McKinley and TE Jared Cook will be tough, but the Gamecocks have plenty of big receivers for Garcia to throw to. They'll need to step up their play in light of those losses, of course, but there is talent there. Freshman RB Jarvis Giles impressed in the spring game and he could catch some passes out of the backfield too. There are pieces here for a good passing game, and Giles brings hope to the running game. Remember, all of Spurrier's best offenses have had good running elements to them (Errict Rhett, Fred Taylor, Earnest Graham, etc.) along with the passing.

For all of this to go, the offensive line will have to gel and quickly though. A new offensive line coach Eric Wolford has come in to try to solve the problems of injury and inconsistency that have plagued the Gamecock line over the past four years. He and Mangus are just two parts of a coaching staff overhaul that ideally will pay immediate dividends.

South Carolina is one of the most divisive teams among the early consensus, and it's not hard to see why. There's no broad agreement on how Garcia will shape up, how the defense will deal with its losses, and whether Spurrier is the answer in Columbia. There's enough there for hope though, and for the endlessly devoted Gamecock fanbase, that's probably all they need.

Of course, eight or nine wins couldn't hurt.

MONDAY: Past as Present
TUESDAY: The Schedule; Spurrier Meets with Two Students
WEDNESDAY: The Depth Chart; Hope and Homerism
THURSDAY: Predictions
FRIDAY: Feedback and Conclusions

Calathes Traded to Dallas

Year2 — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 02:03:06 -0000

Calathes Traded to Dallas

Former Gator PG Nick Calathes has been traded by Minnesota to Dallas for a 2010 second round pick and cash. Lord knows the Wolves don't need any more guards after last night's drafting spree, and Calathes would be a good fit in a Donnie Nelson scheme.

Calathes will still spend at least a year in Greece playing for Panathinaikos before any NBA experience begins.

A Couple Tailgating Assists

Year2 — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 15:00:30 -0000

Tailgating is as big a part of the SEC as sweltering heat and overactive booster clubs. The experienced folks have lavish setups already made, and if you want to see real luxury in tailgating, just take a stroll through your team's RV city (or Vol Navy, or Cockabooses, as the case may be).

But unless you're a certified legend, there's always a chance to improve. To that end, I present:

Yup, it's a pizza oven that plugs into you car's cigarette lighter. Pizza is underrated as a tailgating food in my estimation, and now you can have one hot and fresh without the need for an extension cord plugged in over at the geology building or having to wait two hours for the Domino's guy to show up at your spot. Unless you're going to get a pie from your favorite college town hippie pizza joint, what better way could there be? No refunds though if you get sauce all over the upholstery.

For you traditionalists bound to the grill, this is for you: a free bottle of Country Bob's All Purpose Sauce. I've never heard of Country Bob's and I have no idea if they sell it in your area. But it's free, right? And how could you go wrong with a name like that?

H/T on both to Gizmodo

2009 SEC Media Days Lineup Announced

Year2 — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 18:13:10 -0000

SEC Media Days are a circus of the first order. The media crush is insane, as are the questions that often get asked. It's a unique experience that I hope to partake in someday.

The SEC Media Days for this year are July 22-24. That's been known for a while. What hasn't been known is the order of appearance (the format is four teams per day over three days) and which student athletes will be coming. Now thanks to the SEC's website, we know the order and the players. They go as follows:

JULY 22

Arkansas: DT Malcolm Sheppard and TE D.J. Williams

Vanderbilt: C Bradley Vierling and CB Myron Lewis

Mississippi State: OT Derek Sherrod and LB K.J. Wright

Kentucky: OT Zipp Duncan and CB Trevard Lindley

JULY 23

Alabama: OL Mike Johnson and LB Rolando McClain

Georgia: QB Joe Cox and DT Jeff Owens

Ole Miss: QB Jevan Snead and DE Greg Hardy

Florida: QB Tim Tebow and LB Brandon Spikes

JULY 24

Auburn: TE Tommy Trott and DE Antonio Coleman

South Carolina: WR Moe Brown and LB Eric Norwood

LSU: OT Ciron Black and LB Jacob Cutrera

Tennessee: S Eric Berry and TB Montario Hardesty

The first two and last two of each day will be going on at the same time. Commissioner Mike Slive will be appearing on the 22nd, and Rogers Redding, the coordinator of SEC officials, will appear on the 23rd.

The conference refused to humor the off season news cycle by including Urban Meyer and Lane Kiffin on the same day, but Kiffin and Spurrier are (though at different times). July 23rd has the most star power both among the coaches and players, and it's not even close. The first link above (or here, for convenience) has links for both audio and video streaming for the event. I will be out of the country at the time, so y'all will have to let me know how it goes.

List updated; LSU and Mississippi State have switched days since original posting.