Many believe that the Angels need to sign a dominant closer to address the perceived need of a closer. Proponents site Walden leading the team in blown saves, his inexperience and past Angels success largely relied on an elite bullpen. However, as the case of trusting the save completion percentage stat (cough, Fernando Rodney, cough), we should be wary how we view available relief pitchers. Don't let save totals in an era of fantasy baseball fool us.

Regarding Heath Bell:

1. He will be 34 years, 6 months come Opening Day. Relievers do not have good track record of elite production in their mid 30's.

2. 2011 saw a massive regression in his k/9 rate to 7.32. This was the lowest rate of his career. He produced a 11.1 ratio in 2010, 10.2 in 2009.

3. 2011 saw his line drive rate go up to 21.3% -- it was below 18% in 2009 and 2010.

4. Pitching in Petco, the NL and the NL West is not the same thing as pitching in the AL.

5. His swinging strike % regressed from greater than 10% in 2009, 2010 to 8.3% in 2011.

While Bell was clearly a successful closer in 2011, and his FB didn't lose velocity last year, there are signs of risk if the Angels think Bell would be a better option than Walden to close out games in 2012. Factoring in the opportunity cost using scare financial resources I would think it would be far wiser to target a Octavio Dotel (presuming he doesn't cost a draft pick) to face RH only or even Frank Francisco to shore up the pen.

Let's hope the Angels 2012 season does not depend on Vernon Wells performing up to the expectations of Scioscia and Reagins prior to THE trade -- the numbers aren't kind to a rebound performance.

Vernon's inability to recognize good pitches to hit is well known to all who saw him at the plate this past season. It has been noted previously that Vernon Wells had the 2nd worst OBP by any LF in the history of MLB with at least 520 PAs (.248). Only Joe Sommer managed to "accomplish" a worse OBP in 1886 (.241).

What should be noted is Well's dismal ability to hit line drives. Granted, there are discrepancies between official scorers in different ballparks on what constitutes a line drive. That said, amongst players with more than 500 PAs between 2004 and 2011, Wells' 2011 campaign set this mark:

2nd worst line drive (LD) rate (12.3%)

Only Aaron Hill had a worse LD rate in 2010 (10.6%). Gary Matthews Jr. had the 3rd worst rate, 12.9% in 2007, and we all know what happened to his career after that.

Hopefully Vernon is able to work through his issues and return to being a 3+ WAR player. Unfortunately, not that these two outcomes are mutually exclusive, a more likely outcome is Wells is Appiered (or Kazmired if one prefers) before his current contract runs its course.

Looking at advanced stats such as a Wells' in-field fly ball (IFFB)% and you truly wonder what in the world Scioscia/Reagins were thinking last January.

*FanGraphs does not provide data on line drive rates prior to 2004 (well, at least from what I could recognize).

In our search to find somebody to repair the mess our former front office created and return the Angels to the postseason let's take some time to learn about the candidates. First up is former Dodger GM and current player agent Dan Evans. Why Evans?

Continue reading this post »

Lyle Spencer's manlove for Jeff Mathis knows no limits.

Check out his recent Twitter feed: http://twitter.com/#!/LyleMSpencer

Highlights include:

• @truegrich @MikeDiGiovanna @TylerKepner All Mathis has to do is fix a flaw in his stroke. Go ahead and laugh. If he does, you'll see.
• @MikeDiGiovanna @TylerKepner Napoli raised his BA 56 points in Texas. Why couldn't Mathis? Reunite them, by all means.
• @MikeDiGiovanna @TylerKepner Great idea. Mathis would hit .250 at Rangers Ballpark with buddy Nap urging him on.
• #Angels Mathis haters, Hamilton on Napoli: "When you catch, it's difficult to perform offensively. You get tired. He's done great job..."

Quite honestly it is a complete embarrassment to MLB that they actually give this tool a paycheck. It's rather impressive that Spencer focuses on batting average instead of on base percentage, slugging percentage, woba or other statistics. The sheer brilliance of Spencer's analysis shall not be denied.

Take a leap with me and view the update after the jump:

Continue reading this post »

Rangers' Michael Young just drove in his 105th run of the season with just 11 homers. That's clutch hitting, any way you slice it.#Angels

http://twitter.com/#!/LyleMSpencer/status/118543317653925889

Brilliant analysis Lyle... it's not like RBI totals are an indication of hitting in a lineup with a bunch of high OBP guys in front of you or anything. Young and his "clutch" hitting wouldn't have anywhere near the same number of RBIs if he was a Halo this year.

Lyle Spencer tweet night of 9/9:

Given significant ballpark differentials, Mark Trumbo's 26/80 not too bad compared to Teixeira's 36/102 at $22M less.#Angels

While I don't disagree Trumbo is far better financial value than Teixeira Spencer's methodology, RBIs, is about as primitive as our forefathers 25,000 years ago killing animals by scaring them off a cliff. Seriously, does this guy make any attempt to improve his understanding of the game since he traded baseball cards as a kid?

I also dug up this Spencer gem: http://baseball-rumors.blogspot.com/2008/01/interview-with-lyle-spencer-of-mlbcom.html

Baseball-Rumors: Who were your votes for the class of 2008?

Lyle Spencer: My votes were for Bert Blyleven, Goose Gossage, Andre Dawson, Jim Rice, Don Mattingly, Dave Concepcion and Alan Trammell.

I'm partial to that era of the game, I loved watching guys like Don Mattingly play the game. I'm not a big fan of the moneyball idea that a lot of teams preach these days, but the game has changed so much in the last 10-15 years.

I do not mean to attack Spencer's character. He could be the nicest, most genuine person one will ever meet. I honestly have no idea.

Vernon Wells has managed to prove all those who doubted he couldn't produce a historic 2011 campaign wrong! Amongst all LF with more than 380 PAs in a single season Vernon Wells has given the 2011 Halos the worst OBP since 1886. Yes, a LF hasn't produced a worst OBP with this criteria since the Statute of Liberty was dedicated by President Grover Cleveland and the National League was only in it's 11th year of existence

Thanks Tony! That's not so grrrrrrrrreat!

Despite Torii's solid day at the plate on Sunday the Angels need to seriously consider looking for a RF upgrade at the trade deadline. While many have sought to upgrade C, 3B and DH the Halos have only received (prior to Sunday) a WAR of 1.0 from RF this year (7th worst in MLB) and a woba of .305 (5th worst in MLB).

This probably is highly unlikely to happen considering Scioscia's proclivity to favor veterans despite evidence they are either completely done (Steve Finley "playing" Cf everyday in 2005) or clearly fading (GA 2004-2008). With a fading Abreu and Hunter, and the strong probability Mike Trout will be a superior option than them as soon as September, it will be interesting to see how the FO handles this problem in 2011 and in the forthcoming offseason. $27.5 million for Torii and Abreu in 2012 is brutal.

In regards to 3B production the Angels have benefited from a woba of .323 -- good for 7th best in baseball.