Let’s all be honest. Our current Jazz team isn’t perfect. It was a fun team to watch, it was an endearing team because of their personalities and hard work … but they weren’t a great team. They were good, but far from greatness.

So I want to look a bit at what makes a great team. I’m not going into stats here. I’m delving heavily into opinion and just thinking about it. Following my muse, if you will. I’ll be looking at several different ways of thinking about a roster … ways that can be complementary if the team-builder is smart about it.

Edit:

This post also shows why I really dislike the depth chart way of looki

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First of all, a disclosure.

KOC's people skills don't exactly dazzle me. I think he enjoys keeping RFA’s in limbo, making them wait out the Jazz match period as uncomfortably as possible. I think he enjoyed sending Deron to a piece of crap team—just to stick it to his former star who wouldn't commit. (Not that the trade was done for this reason, but this is the part that he enjoyed most).

I think KOC goes out of his way in the offseason to make players feel as unloved as possible.Nah, we’re not going to offer you anything Paul. Just get some offer from someone, and if you’re actually worth it, we’ll match. After leaving you hanging for all seven days.

Yeah, I don’t get all warm and fuzzy thinking about KOC’s disarming people skills.

At the same time, I think KOC is a good GM and I feel lucky to have him running my team. Particularly after reading this about other NBA GM’s, from Henry Abbott at True Hoops:

... I was told about a GM of a struggling team who, as described to me by a source well-positioned to know, showed up for work "less than part time." As in, a few hours a week.

Even after all the stories I've heard through the years, this surprised me.

A little while later I was on the phone with a front-office employee for another team. Without using any names, I told him what I had heard.

Could it be true?

His response: "Was your source somebody at our team?"

Wow. His GM was the same way.

I have since talked to people with two other teams who say their GMs just don't work very much -- that's four such current GMs I've been told about so far this week. None of those teams is likely to make the playoffs either...

I guarantee KOC ain’t one of these guys.

So yeah, I’m glad he works for our team. And if you look at his track record, he’s made decent free agent signings (Boozer & Memo), decent draft picks (Deron, Ronnie B., Sap, Gordon, Kanter, Burks), and decent trades (Giricek for Korver, KOOF for Big Al, Deron for Favors+Kanter+GS’s mythical pick).

No, he hasn’t batted 1.000. But nobody does.

But there are two ways I would like to specifically ask he do better. Two little things. Two itsy-bitsy changes that would have a profound effect on our team:

More after the jump

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The toughness of our Jazz team last year has been questioned several times. Whether it's JJ Barea bumping Hayward at the FT line, or Dirk smacking the ball out of the hands of Derrick Favors, besides Earl Watson our team seemed to be a little soft.

In the aftermath of the ugly Miami-Indiana game, I'm wondering what kind of toughness we want from our team. Do we want our team to go as far as we saw in that game—the head attacks masquerading as going for the ball, and elbows intentionally thrown at guys' throats?

I'm also reminded of what Tim Duncan said about his silence and unflappable game face (sorry for everyone who is tired of me gushing about the Spurs) in the same interview I quoted last week:

His on-court demeanor is so reserved that The Onion once ran a story titled, TIM DUNCAN HAMS IT UP FOR CROWD BY ARCHING LEFT EYEBROW SLIGHTLY. This impression is intentional, it turns out. Duncan has said he uses silence to "destroy people's psyches." He explains, "The best mind game you can run on someone is just to keep going at them and at them until they break." Don't respond, don't show emotion. Just keep playing. "Eventually," he says with a grin, "you'll piss them off."

I suppose in the end, the question is the same: what kind of toughness do you hope our guys can develop, and how do you hope to see such toughness manifested?

This season I mocked the "winning culture" vs. "losing culture" paradigm KOC used when he defended giving veteran players playing time over the kids. I still say it's ludicrous. I also say that missing the playoffs one or two times doesn't necessarily establish a "losing culture". Though if you do it like Golden State, then you probably will.

Ultimately I thought it was a copout and the worry doesn't apply to the Jazz at all. Here's a quote from John Hollinger about JaVale McGee:

Turns out he's not just a punch line. McGee showed more development in two months in Denver than he had in four years in Washington, particularly on the offensive end where he showed some refinement with a sweeping hook shot. McGee still takes ridiculous chances on blocking shots he has no hope of reaching and leaves his feet constantly on the defensive end. On the other hand, he went for 21-14 against an elite frontcourt to key a close playoff road win, rejected a phenomenal 22 shots in 181 minutes, and had three 14-rebound efforts in seven games. In other words, while he's still something of a project, he's a productive project

The losing culture of the Wizards come from a front office that has no idea what it's doing, years of coaching staffs with no control of players, and a collection of knuckleheads on their roster.

But move a player from that incompetent team to one with a good front office, with a good coaching staff, and players who aren't idiots, and suddenly he actually starts making progress. As Hollinger stated, "more progress in two months ... than he had in four years in Washington."

A losing culture or winning culture is not dictated by whether a team wins most of its games or not in a random year. It's created by a front office that knows what it's doing. And that's why I always felt safe. While there are times KOC bugs me, he's one of the most competent GM's in the league.

Hickory High (a truly fantastic blog) posted some graphics to illustrate a team's offensive effectiveness. It charts both the most effective plays in terms of both players and play type. For example, on the Jazz a Millsap cut was the most effective scoring play. A Josh Howard spot up was the worst. The graph also shows the frequency with which a given play was used. It doesn't include every single play and player—only those used at least 100 times last year. Here is the Jazz:

via www.hickory-high.com

This chart just kills me. The Jazz really do have a variety of decent offensive options. And that variety will only get more diverse and more effective as the kids continue to improve. But there's one play that the team depends on over and over and over: the Al Jefferson post up. Notice that the only other spike is the Millsap post up.

So that's our team's offense. No wonder it was stagnant and easy to defend by the Spurs in the playoffs.

Here's to a bit more offensive creativity in the future. More movement, please.

Here's a list of things I hope some of the young players improve next year. We'll start, of course, with my favorite dude on the team:

1. Gordon Hayward: Mostly just recite to yourself, 100 times daily: "I am the best freaking all-around player on the team, and I'm going to act like it." Also: contested layups.
2. Derrick Favors: the release of his shot. Everything else looks so good offensively—his footwork, his moves (he's got four primary post moves), but his release is inconsistent. Once he can nail that, everything else will be there.
3. Alec Burks: Consistent effort on defense and more deflections (he showed flashes, but not consistent brilliance) reading defenses and running back-door, weak-side cuts, and a little more emphasis on passing (his passing is fantastic—I hope it can become just a bit more prominent).
4. Enes Kanter: Gain an inch on your vertical leap, consistently do the great man-to-man D we saw flashes of last year, use your entire offensive repertoire without hesitation: the jumper, the hooks, everything. The Utah Jazz Blog posted a video of Kanter pre-draft (they thought it was a recent video: Ha Ha!). Go watch it. He's had a year to see what game-speed is, to experience NBA defenders ... now let's see him put that stuff into play. He's seriously got the talent.

I really, really dislike how long the NBA playoffs get drawn out—all so TNT can try to do their 40 in 40 thing. The best series of the entire playoffs may be the Spurs and Thunder ... and it will begin 6 days after the lesser LA team was booted.

I remember playoffs back in the early 90's—there was a kind of steady crescendo of excitement from the first round to the NBA Finals. I feel like that is missing today because it takes so much time to finish a single series. And then so much extra time to start the next one.

I have my own ideas about what would be better—but they're involved enough to need an entire post. But what would you do to improve the NBA playoffs?

Locke is conducting season reviews on all the players at Locked on Sports. Be warned, though—it's pretty heavy.

Each player's analysis will be divided into seven parts (Al's has been finished, Millsap is currently at part 2), and there are a whole lot of stats in them. And besides being filled with a whole lot of stats, some of them are pretty obscure. Paul Millsap, apparently, has an activity level of 583.5. What does that mean? I have no idea. And I couldn't find a handy link in which the more obscure stats are explained.

But there is enough written commentary to get a feel for what Locke feels the stats say.

But of all the commentary, this to me says the most. It's specifically about Al Jefferson. But to me it says much more about the plan of the Jazz coaching staff:

He went from 38% of his offense being post up to 48% this year. Last year he was 74th in the NBA in post up and this year he is 19th, a huge improvement. His shooting percentage out of the post increased as well from 42.7% to 47.5% this year. A year ago he got a higher percentage of his offense off the cut and he is more efficient in those plays.

No shock that Al go a huge percentage of shots as post-ups, nor that he did a lot more this year than last. And I'm glad he's improved. But no matter the improvement, it's still nowhere as effective as his scoring off cuts. Synergy says he shoots 48% on post-ups and 64% on cuts.

And while Al deserves some criticism for this (the post iso does seem to be what he prefers), the big issue is the coaching staff. They're the ones who make the game plan. They're the ones who design the playbook. They're the ones who decided to do fewer of the more effective plays and more less effective ones.

I'm certainly not calling for Ty's head. My hope is just that he improves. That he abandons less-effective ideas and takes hold of more effective ones.

The more I investigate, the more I'm convinced that simple system changes could have a strong effect in how well the Jazz play next year.

By now you probably know that Kevin O'Connor was:

1. Put on the NBA's new Competition Committee, and
2. Voted in fifth place in the annual Executive of the Year Award

First the second of the two: I don't really like this award. And here's why: the Jazz have a pretty decent chance of being a great team by about 2013-14. That will be Year 4 of Favors/Hayward plus Year 3 of Kanter/Burks. As long as KOC plays his cards right during the next year, seeking and finding the right guys around them, they'll be really good.

But if things work out, why will the be so good? Because of the moves KOC made in 2010-11—picking Hayward (a fairly outside-the-box pick), the Deron trade for Favors, the guys acquired with the picks from that trade (Kanter, and the mythical GS pick), and getting a steal in drafting Burks at 12.

Real teams are built over years, with some good long-term thinking. The Executive of the Year Award rewards the GM who makes the most splashy instant-gratification moves that year. So in a way I'm glad KOC didn't win the award.

The Competition Committee makes decisions about rule changes to improve the NBA. It used to be made up of all 30 GM's. Now it isn't. It's both smaller and more diverse, including coaches, GM's, owners, and one player.

This is the committee that would decide on things like anti-flopping rules, eliminating offensive goaltending, etc. Amar already wrote up a detailed explanation and listed the other members of the committee, so you can check that out if you want more of the details.

I'm excited about KOC being on this committee. Mostly because it gives us a whole new set of complaints and dreams that we can now end with the refrain:

"KOC, make it happen!"

This is about the Spurs. But it's also about the Jazz. We all freak out at times over the thought that one of our favorite guys may leave Utah for the bright lights of elsewhere. I think losing Deron—and knowing the trade was necessary because the chances of him staying at that point were a bit slim—scarred us a bit.

So ... how do we make our stars desperately want to stay with us? Well, here's what Chris Ballard at SI wrote about the Spurs, Popovich, and Tim Duncan:

The story of Duncan's career begins on an island, in the summer of 1997. That's when Popovich flew down to St. Croix to meet his team's No. 1 draft pick. On the first day, Duncan took his new coach swimming. Out they went, one man tall and assured, the other short and as pale as the sand, his arms churning furiously. Duncan led them past rocky outcroppings into deeper water, the shoreline of the island quickly receding. Popovich began to think about how far out they were, about what lay beneath, about the waves cresting off the rocks. Still, he kept going, determined not to show weakness.

Over the next three days—or two or maybe four, neither can remember—the two men swam and lay on the beach and ate, talking about life and family and priorities. Everything but basketball. Despite a difference of nearly 30 years, they connected in a way few athletes and coaches do. Today Popovich tears up just talking about it. "I really cherish that time," he says. "It was like an instant respect and understanding of each other. Almost like we were soul mates."

From that point on, the two were on the same page. Other than a brief flirtation with the Orlando Magic in 2003, when Duncan was a free agent—he and Pop stayed up late drinking beers in Pop's backyard, talking it through—Duncan never wavered in his commitment to the team. This, in turn, allowed Popovich to build his highly successful system, the tenets of which were simple: The offense runs through Duncan, the defense runs through Duncan, and if you don't like it, you're gone. It holds true to this day. "I like role players who aren't very good but have a skill," Pop says with a chuckle, though he is not joking. "I know who's going to have the ball on our team, and need players who understand this."

Kevin O'Connor, Greg Miller, and Ty Corbin—if you want our young studs to stay with us, if you want them to have loyalty to match their greatness, if you want to be able to have time to build a team—because it takes more than two or three years to build the right team—if you want these things as much as I do, then:

Build treat them like this and work to build this kind of relationship with them.

A couple of pictures. First, it was my 6-year-old's birthday last week. Here's his birthday stash:

And second. At the final game of the regular season, the Jazz Dancers were at the ESA doors, passing out the most random "The first three thousand fans will receive" gifts of all time: A Derrick Favors Cooking Apron. Yes, I have six of them now.

Note: Clark is writing a series about three-point shooting specifically. My look at the Spurs could be called a companion to his. There are a lot of similar themes. So read his, get smart, and then look at mine and see what you think.

* * *

The playoffs were, according to the official Jazz Stance, a terrific learning experience. So I wanted to see what could be actually learned, starting with this:

What can Tyrone Corbin learn from Gregg Popovich?

I love Gregg Popovich.

Now that Sloan is gone, he is my favorite coach in the NBA—and it's not even close. It comes from how he coaches the game, how he gets his team to listen, how he wants to kill sideline reporters, how he makes sure reporters who as stupid questions know exactly how stupid the question was.

Everything about him is wonderful.

I also think he's the best coach of my lifetime. Yep, in some cases 4 > 11.

This year he gave a great quote telling us exactly what he thinks of "Keys to the Game" (I think it's a response to BTS, but that has never been made clear). From the SLTrib:

Popovich on Sunday, asked about 'keys to the game': You're kidding? … Score more points than them. Play hard. Come on. This is ridiculous.

Popovich on Monday: Did you ask me that last night? Say whatever you want. It's transition D. It's making shots. Don't turn it over. It's all bull[crap]. Have more points than they do, that's the key. Just make it up and say I said it. I don't care.

You gotta love the reporter being dumb enough to ask the same question in back-to-back nights. There's stupidity, there's bravery, and then there's that.

But the real genius of Gregg Popovich isn't just that he treated a stupid reporter like an imbecile. No, the real genius is actually his answer. Notice he repeats what his key to the game is. It's the only statement that makes both zings:

Score more points.

We laugh, we roll our eyes (because it's obvious), but please take this seriously. I wonder if Gregg Popovich is the only coach in the entire league that actually understands this. I'm not being facetious at all.

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I've been so jealous of the other SLC Dunkers this week. Clark got the pre-game 4 and post-game 4 Downbeats. Diana got the immediately after the locker cleanouts Downbeat. Moni's will be awesome, funny, and brilliant because that's just how she does things. And I get Thursday, i.e. the morning after nothing new can happen for a month Downbeat.

Locke had an interesting piece comparing Alec's rookie year to those of other players. The three players that were the closest comparison were: Larry Hughes, Luol Deng, and Russell Westbrook. Yes, this is the Please Stop Taking So Many Bad Shots Larry Hughes. Well, Alec as a rookie shot better than all but three of Larry's seasons. So hopefully we don't have to freak out about that.

But the other two: if Alec could play like the love child of Deng and Westbrook, then WOW. That is one incredible SG. Hopefully Alec's progress isn't slowed by the fact that he played two to three times fewer minutes as rookie than those guys.

But really, here's the funniest part of the article:

Part of the difficultly [to comparing Alec] in [sic] an over loaded and evidentially very unhappy wing position Burks only got 939 minutes of playing time.

Only Locke and Corbin could conspire to make a wing rotation including Raja Bell and Josh Howard, plus the worst three-point shooting in the league, qualify as overloaded.

If you want to see what overloaded REALLY is, look at our frontcourt next year if there are no changes

It really bothers me that the exit interviews with the players and the Official KFAN Stance seem so different. KFAN fawns over Corbin. Locke sang him praises, making his leadership sound like that of Colin Powell. Matt Harpring freaked out on Twitter every time a player didn't call Corbin the greatest.

Yet that players had issues with Corbin should tell us that Locke's Magical Locker Room overseen by the Wise and Powerful Wizard named Corbin didn't really exist in the first place. And it's interesting that it's not just Raja and CJ who discussed Ty's poor communication. Devin did too. I can't figure out what Hayward said, but whatever it was it made Harpring mad:

Hayward answer on Corbin critique should have been, Coach Ty did a great job and i really appreciate the opportunity he gave me this year.

— matt harpring (@mharpring15) May 9, 2012

And really, how great of a Communicator can Ty Corbin be right now if he thinks his second best wing's name is Alex?

I don't want to rabble-rouse. I don't want everyone to decide I'm a Ty Corbin hater just like I'm a Big Al hater. But can we please be honest? Corbin got the team to play hard. He did a good job. But he wasn't perfect. His communication with the players obviously needs to improve. He needs a game plan that incorporates strengths of all players, not just two. And the tight locker room appears to be a product of the players themselves, not the leadership of the coach.

Much will be discussed about the Jazz in the future over the next few months. You can already see it popping up in Fan Posts. The SLC Dunk crew will likely have tons of opinions and hopes that you'll be bombarded with. I'm already working on my 2012 Off-Season Manifesto.

I don't want to spoil it all, but what I'll say right now is this: Kevin O'Conner, please plan ahead.

Poll:

Amar called it:

I expect our team to experience that "virginal playoff shell shock" for one game, all teams that make the jump from the lottery to the playoffs have to have that game. It may be Game 1 or Game 2 depending on how hard to Spurs want to take it at the Jazz.

Knowing that it was coming didn't make it any easier to handle. And it's worse when it's NOT the team's best players that are destroying you. It's one thing when Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili destroy you. It's another thing altogether when it's Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Boris Diaw.

But you know what? That's the Spurs. That's why Popovich won his 2nd Coach of the Year award this year (should have been probably his 10th or so).

Despite the disgusting loss, the Magical Four, our Players of the Future, the Kids (whatever you want to call them) showed us, again, why the team's future is bright—provided KOC and Ty can accept that they are actually good players and worth building around. Here's their blurbs from Salt City Hoops:

Hayward - Grade: C

Gordon Hayward was the only one trying to get his team involved. The results obviously weren’t that moving, but at least he tried. His shot wasn’t falling, just like everyone else.

Favors - Grade: B

His +/- was +6 in a game the Jazz. Plus/minus differentials aren’t too incriminating, but in this case, that means that something went terribly wrong in the rotations.

Burks - Grade B-

Burks is cocky, and he was the one playing with the most pride late in the game- he was trying to catch the Spurs playing sloppy and was still running the floor even in the last couple of minutes. He’s the only reason the deficit was less than 40.

Kanter - Grade: B

Did anyone predict that ESPN’s box score would list Enes Kanter as Utah’s top performer in the second game of the playoffs? I don’t believe that anyone did. The most backhanded compliment I can offer to the Jazz as a whole is this: Kanter earned it.

Obviously they didn't provide enough to keep the even remotely close. But they still gave us something. I'm still trying to figure out how Hayward managed 4 assists. I'm blown away that Favors actually had a positive +/-.

Everyone called this series a learning experience for the our team. And that was even before last night. Because I'm a teacher, I sadly know that just because a lesson is presented doesn't mean the stuff is learned. So I hope our team is actually learning something. Because we're witnessing the best of the best.

More specifically, I hope KOC and Ty Corbin can learn this:

What happens when you give young, talented players lots of playing time in the regular season, when you actually let them star and play as the focal point of the team on occasion, when you let them make mistakes, learn from them, and use playing time to help them improve?

The players progress rapidly to the point they are capable of acting as the main guy for a #1 seed playoff team.

There's not one scrap of evidence Kawhi is more talented than Alec Burks. They were both picked in the same range. They were both expected to be picked within the same range. And from what I've seen Alec Burks actually has more potential. And I'm not even getting into Leonard vs. Derrick Favors.

Yet it's Kawhi Leonard starting and leading the Spurs in scoring in game 2. Think about that again: starting and leading the best freaking team in the league in scoring in a playoff game!

Isn't that what KOC would call "establishing a losing culture?"

The good news: there have been playoff massacres before. The Jazz had their horrible 96-54 loss in the 98 Finals. The Celtics slaughtered the Lakers in 1985's Memorial Day Massacre, yet the Lakers took the championship. We could go on.

For whatever it's worth, I expect the Jazz to come back and play harder and better. I don't expect them to miraculously win the series like Magic's Lakers (who were helped by Bird injuring his hand in a bar fight). But they'll put up a better showing in games 3 and beyond.

Let's hope these better showings are good enough to at least win a game.

Poll:

True story: Jazz play Portland tonight.

The importance of tonight's game cannot be overstated. Maybe it means nothing in the standings, playoff picture, etc. But honestly tonight's game is important BECAUSE it means nothing.

Sirius Black once told Harry Potter that the way you judge a person's character is to look at how he treats his inferiors—not how he treats his equals or superiors. Well, the way to judge a coach and front office is by looking at how they approach games that mean nothing, not games that matter.

Tonight we find out if Ty has any of Coach Popovich in him. Tonight we see how far the "Compete in every game" mantra goes.

Admit it: you'll be super amused if Millsap/Al/Hayward/Harris play 40 minutes tonight. You'll likewise be entertained if Kanter plays 4 minutes because he's yanked after missing his only shot, and Jeremy Evans doesn't play at all. #WinEveryGame

Looking ahead to the playoffs: Locke put up several Tweets about the Spurs last night. For all the rumblings about the Jazz matching up well with them, how anything can happen, etc., etc., etc., these should give us some pause:

Top 5 offensive teams in the NBA over the last 10 games - Spurs (118.8) Denver (115.4) Atlanta (114.6) Phoenix (113.2) Utah (113.2)

— David Locke (@Lockedonsports) April 26, 2012

Top 5 defensive teams in NBA over last 10 games- Bulls (96.8) Heat (100.2) Celtics (102.7) Spurs (102.8) Wizards (102.9)

— David Locke (@Lockedonsports) April 26, 2012

Top 5 teams in NBA via efficiency differential last 10 games - Spurs (+16)Hawks (+11) Denver (+8.5) OKC (+8) Bulls (+7) - Jazz #9

— David Locke (@Lockedonsports) April 26, 2012

#Spurs Manu Ginobili will finish the year ranked #1 in Locke Offensive Ranking, followed by Harden, Durant, Lebron and Tyson Chandler

— David Locke (@Lockedonsports) April 26, 2012

So, over the past ten games (including two in which the Spurs didn't even bring Duncan/Ginobili/Parker), they are the best offensive team and fourth best defensive team in the league. Their differential is obscenely good. Manu may have been the best offensive player in the entire NBA this year. They have gone 23-3 over the past 26 games.

It is very true that anything can happen in the series. But we also should remember we are playing an experienced, championship-winning team that has steamrolled the entire NBA since the All-Star break. They beat the snot out of good teams. They beat the snot out of crummy teams. They win at home. They win on the road. They win with their stars. They win when their stars get DNP-Old.

They won almost as many road games as the Jazz won at home this year.

The Jazz are going up against the best of the best, and it will be really fun to see how well they can do. I snarked about their compete in every game mantra above, but it also means our guys won't roll over and give up—no matter how well the Spurs play in the series. Even if they fall behind 0-3 and face a sweep, they'll play their guts out in that game four.

KOC gave BTS an interview, written up at the SLTrib. I'm not going to go into all of it, because right now I just want to be happy and enjoy where the Jazz are at. But here's my favorite part, talking about building a team:

When you put a team together, you try to have a vision. And maybe what you thought about here was trying to build it through the draft and trying to look a little bit at what Detroit was when they had a lot of good players. Rasheed [Wallace] and Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups. I'm not putting ourselves in that category yet, because we haven't earned it. But what I'm saying is, maybe that's the idea. That we can beat you in a lot of different ways instead of having to go the one or two guys over and over again.

I would have found that quote really irritating early in the season, when the team seemed determined to go to the same two guys over and over again. Thankfully, that game plan has mostly disappeared. I believe the Jazz are successful because they went to a balanced attack, because they started playing according to the strengths of everyone instead of the few. When you don't have all-time talent playing at their peak, you have to find ways to make your team better than its collection of players suggests. The Jazz have figured out how to do that over the past month and a half.

Edit: forget the open poll. This is what I've been desperately waiting for and thought it wasn't done for the Downbeat:

Shandonfan's Bromance Part 2 Video: Can You Feel the Love Tonight

I have officially abandoned all attempts to make sense of this season. One week ago (Seriously ... just one week ago) playoffs looked iffy, and if the Jazz were going to pass anyone, it would be Denver. Because Houston was playing great AND had the easier remaining schedule. Chad Nielsen (@Lord_Chadeous) of the Utah Jazz Blog even boldly declared that beating Houston wasn't necessary ... because the idea of catching Houston was absurd.

And here we are. In eighth place, in the playoff spot for today, and Houston has lost 5 straight (starting with our win one week ago).

So enjoy the ride. Unless something totally unexpected happens (normalcy) expect the last week of the season to be just as ridiculous.

Early in the season, I often ranted about the Jazz game plan—specifically how it demanded 1-2 guys (we know who they are) to carry the team. The problem was those two guys weren't All-NBA type players capable of carrying a team. They are good players, but not as good as everyone was pretending.

Well, look at how things have changed. Here are the per-game stats during April of the five guys I believe have taken the team out of meh-land into legitimate quality:

Gordon Hayward

17.8 ppg, 4.3 rbd, 3.8 ast, 1 steal, 0.5 block, 49% FG, 50% 3P, 86% FT, 40 min/game

Devin Harris

16.5 ppg, 1.5 rbd, 5.9 ast, 1 steal, 44% FG, 40% 3P, 70% FT, 33 min/game

Paul Millsap

18.8 ppg, 7.8 rbd, 2.6 ast, 2 steals, 1 block, 49% FG, 74% FT, 37 min/game

Al Jefferson

19.1 ppg, 10.3 rbd, 2.2 ast, 0.5 steals, 2 blocks, 51% FG, 84% FT, 39 min/game

Derrick Favors

8.8 ppg, 8.7 rbd, 0.8 ast, 0.3 steal, 1.2 blocks, 56% FG, 65% FT, 24 min/game

You could argue that the team revised its plan. You could say guys got better. You could say a lot of things that ultimately don't matter all that much. What matters is those when you have those numbers from our top five players, our team plays pretty well.

Congratulations to Golden State for playing some dudes named Dominic Maguire (Toby's second cousin) and Mikell Gladness 50 combined minutes last night to make sure the Warriors lost. You can't be too careful. Special props to Mikell, who stole Hasheem Thabeet's seemingly uncontested run at worst starter on an actual NBA team.

Other notable tanks:

Charlotte accidentally kept the loss closer than 40 points. But they tried. They gakked up only 66 points. it wasn't their fault Chicago could only score 100.

Detroit got back to business after their accidental 50-point victory two nights ago and lost to Atlanta by 32. Glad they could get back on the right track.

I don't remember any kind of tanking like we are enjoying this year. Not ever.

It was a nasty head-bump, but it seems that DeMarre and Derrick are okay.

Derrick Favors and DeMarre Carroll both passed initial concussion tests. Carroll will take more tomorrow.

— Jody Genessy (@DJJazzyJody) April 19, 2012

Good win.. I'm okay to all my fans just got a bump and a headache....Im the junkyarddog. Lol Flight back to Utah..#Staypositive #Blessed

— DeMarre Carroll (@DeMarreCarroll1) April 19, 2012

Blake Ahean's 10-day contract is up. I hope he gets another. Just because (pic from Kyle Kirkham —@kyle11kirkham):

Poll:

I like it when the Jazz win. I really like it when they win by playing smart basketball. You can't always guarantee made shots. Sometimes they just don't fall. But you can play smart. And do you know what is smart basketball? This:

Look at that distribution of plays. Spot-ups are high, I think—particularly since our heroes aren't very good at spot-ups this year. But everything else ... Between 7-13 Iso's, P&R's, Post ups, Off-screens, Cuts, and Transition possessions. I have railed on the Jazz for focusing too much on one or two guys can do well, at the expense of everyone else. Not last night. Last night they used everyone according to their strengths. And it was one of the best games of the year because of it.

Would you like to relive more Jazz smarts? Of course you would. So how about this play in crunch-time, when the Rockets were giving their last surge to try to steal the win:

There is so much going on in this play. Here's a run-down of some of the major ones, in order of appearance:

1. Favors sets a pick for Tinsley to cut to the hoop. Unfortunately, Tinsley runs right into Scola and bounces off like a soggy-to-the-elastic-stage-Oreo. But still, if the pick works, then Hayward passes to Tinsley for a wide open layup. Seriously, because of the spacing of the big guys, there's NOBODY guarding the paint. But the pick doesn't work, so ...
2. Tinsley goes inside and sets a pick to possibly free up Sap for a layup from a pass from Favors. Not there, so next up ...
3. Al sets a pick for Tinsley, who cuts outside for a possible three (if open). Plan B is for Tinsley to pass to Al in the post, who's in better position because of the previous two cuts and screens. But no: Houston reads the pick and defends it perfectly. Favors can't even get a pass to Tinsley. So now ...
4. Favors goes to Hayward and both screens and cuts. This is done in a way to let Gordo shoot a 3 if open. He's not, so next ...
5. Hayward drives down the lane. If nobody rotates then great—he gets a layup. But the D does rotate and collapse, and Hayward can: a) dish to Sap for an open jumper, b) throw back to Tinsley for an open 3, or c) pass to Favors who has a clear lane to the hoop.
6. Hayward goes for option C — which is awesome, because layups are more likely to go in than mid-range 2's or 3's. And while Favors takes it to the hoop ...
7. Al rotates for the pass in case the defenders react in time and cut Favors off too quickly. Favors could simply hand off to Al for the layup.
8. But the D doesn't rotate fast enough, and Favors helps himself to two easy points.

Now, notice that in all that there wasn't a single instance the team decided to stand around and watch it's officially designated "Go-to Guy". They ran a play designed to give everyone a potential scoring opportunity ... and not only that, but usually two different scoring opportunities specifically catered to each player's strengths ... and not only that, but it used player's non-scoring skills to create the opportunities for each other to score.

Teams that can do this consistently will win a lot. Because most teams don't do this. They do the "Go-to Guy" thing, and it fails at a much higher rate than regular plays.

My dream is for the Jazz to NOT have a Go-To Guy in crunch time, but a series of Go-To plays and game plans.

There's a lot of internet chatter going on right now about tanking and the allure of draft picks. Hoops Idea (a True Hoops blog) has been going crazy over the issue lately. I visited The Dream Shake and found not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, but SIX Fan Posts about it in the past week.

I believe this gets into one of the biggest frustrations that come from being a fan. We want our teams to be awesome. We want to celebrate greatness. And for a fans of teams like Houston, or possibly like the Jazz, this can be hard. You're not really good enough to be a great team. Nobody's going to trade you Kevin Durant for CJ Miles. You're not luring a Hall-of-Famer to your town via Free Agency. And so the only hope is the draft ... but the odds are stacked against you getting a great pick. And if you gut the team and tank for the great draft pick ... well, then your Basketball Messiah is stuck with no quality teammates and your team still sucks.

I know I'm one of the very few, but I rather like David Stern. Maybe it's because my other sport is baseball, so I have to deal with Bud Selig. Anyway, Jazzland (over at DNews) has a bunch of funny quotes from his visit to ESA last week in the Phoenix game. Some of the best:

While approaching the media mass outside the Jazz locker room, Stern smiled and said, "Holy Moses! I think they take things more seriously in Utah than in some other basketball cities, and that’s good." (If Stern thought the group of a dozen or so was impressive, he should join a stakeout of a Greg Miller-Karl Malone summit some time.)

While talking about the Jazz being among the small-market triumvirate with the Thunder and Spurs, Stern said this:

"They really set the bar very high for rallying the community to be around them, giving a great, great value proposition of an arena and game entertainment and have fans who unfairly pick on my officials." (emphasis mine)

Whether you like him or hate him, whether you think he was just messing with us or really thinks we're too mean to his refs ... regardless of all, you know he LOVED to end the interview with a sarcastic little flippance like that, and you all secretly love him for it.

One last bit from the Stern interview: he apparently accidentally said the Jazz drafted "Adrian Griffeth" in 1980. This led Jody to speculate that a player mashed from AD and the Dr. Dunkenstein would have been awesome.

Open poll: what player mashup do you think would have been the greatest of all-time.

P.S. Unless you answer Jeff Kirilenko, you're incorrect.

P.P.S. Another dream. Not as Jazz-related as in the past, but still whacked:

I dreamt that I was mediating a fierce, nasty, angry Twitter debate (filled with all sorts of profanities) between Jason ForTheLove and the Shums. The topic: whether one of my students needs glasses or not. I finally got them to come to a kind of understanding, but not before threatening them with one of Amar's spreadsheets. You can see I pull out the big guns.

And yes, my student needs glasses.

It's funny that I'm going over this when The Utah Jazz Blog posts a podcast doing a bit of the same thing: looking at the advanced stats of our young players and seeing what they tell us. But fear not ... I'm doing this a little differently than Andy Larsen did. So go listen to their podcast and then come back here. Or read this first and then go there. It's all good.

I’ve mentioned the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference before, but this is the first time I am actually doing a post about it. The conference looks at really complex, innovative studies based on sports statistical analysis. Honestly, this kind of stuff makes PER look like grade school math.

And I’m not alone. Bill James, the pioneer in advanced statistical analysis of baseball, said that the real innovations are in basketball—because analyzing 5-on-5 dynamics is far, far more complex. This is obvious if you’ve tried to really analyze a play on Synergy. It honestly takes watching a play 10-15 times to really have a basic grasp of everything that happened. This is also why, while I complain about them occasionally, I don’t envy the job of NBA referees.

More after the jump

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So the Jazz finish off their road trip going 1-2 and tied with both Houston and Denver for 7th place in the Western Conference. Although the road trip is somewhat disappointing, it's not unexpected. Really it falls right in line with how the Jazz have played all season—if you include both the good times and the bad.

Although we were feeling all chipper about being so close to 4th place in the conference, the reality is that climbs in the standings were always going to be an uphill battle. The teams ahead of our guys had better records because they had played better this season, to date.

This is where the tie-breakers really matter. The Jazz win the tie-breaker against Denver—the Jazz won two of the three games. The tie-breaker with Houston will be determined on April 11—that's when the Jazz play the Rockets for the third and final time this year. Each team has won once so far, so that game will determine it all.

It's in Houston, so here's hoping the Jazz bring their best to Texas.

Although it's tempting, I'm not going to re-post Hayward's two blocks again. It's worth noting, though, that not only was it the Block of the Night at NBA.com, it was also #1 in the Top 10 Plays.

But really his overall play (including, but not limited to the blocks) was definitely the best part of the Boston game. I decided to do some quick searching to see where Hayward ranks among the league's wings in various categories. All rankings are based on per-48 minute stats as listed on ESPN:

Compared to other shooting guards, Hayward ranks:

• 4th in blocks
• 26th in steals
• 9th in assists
• 16th in rebounding
• 9th in FG%*

If you want to compare him to other SF's (since that's where he's actually played more minutes), here you go:

• 7th in blocks
• 26th in steals
• 5th in assists
• 29th in rebounding
• 9th in FG%

And remember, this is a) compared to ALL SF's and SG's, and b) looking at per-48 minute stats. This means there are some 10 min/game heroes who pop up a lot in these stat rankings.

So really, while Hayward may not be dominating in any one area, he's pretty damn good at everything (though I may give him a dominating rating for his defense). If his three-point shooting can stay up consistently (a realistic possibility, I'd say)—that would give us a wing who scores, rebounds, passes, blocks, defends, and shoots well (regular FG%, FT%, and 3P%).

I'm going to write a whole lot more about this tomorrow, but let's just say that this bodes quite well for our favorite team.

I have been frustrated, at times, with how Kevin O'Connor runs the Jazz. I have definite opinions about what kind of a roster makes most sense, both for right now and for the future—and there are times that my opinion is very different from KOC's. And while it's true there's a reason he's a GM and I'm just a bloggisist, I can also say I at least research advanced stats and stuff.

But at the same time, I am glad KOC's our GM. This TrueHoops article introducing the group's dream of ending tanking shows us exactly why. Actual quote from the article:

In researching this story, I was told about a GM of a struggling team who, as described to me by a source well-positioned to know, showed up for work "less than part time." As in, a few hours a week.

Even after all the stories I've heard through the years, this surprised me.

A little while later I was on the phone with a front-office employee for another team. Without using any names, I told him what I had heard.

Could it be true?

His response: "Was your source somebody at our team?"

Wow. His GM was the same way.

I have since talked to people with two other teams who say their GMs just don't work very much -- that's four such current GMs I've been told about so far this week. None of those teams is likely to make the playoffs either, which means all four of those teams are due to get a sweet player in June for being lousy at their jobs.

I've mocked KOC for his "we can't establish a losing culture" BS. But that he really does care about winning and losing cultures is very reassuring. That he obviously works hard is very reassuring.

There is a reason the Jazz have been a good team—with only occasional and short bouts of crumminess—for almost 30 straight years now.

A mini Twitter tussle came about last night when Jason ForTheLove said that Malone and Stockton were kind of disliked by other fans similar to how Kevin Garnett is disliked for being a total prick. But I actually loved his real point (which wasn't trash talk and go after guys 10" shorter than you):

@YuccaManHoops @dianaallen Karl and John were notorious for being nasty.Hard fouls, high elbows/knees, screens that would shatter jaws

— Jay Eh Ess Oh En (@JasonForTheLove) March 29, 2012

@YuccaManHoops Really all i said is I wish Favors had the nasty side that KG has. Bumping guys, getting in their heads, laughing, fire.

— Jay Eh Ess Oh En (@JasonForTheLove) March 29, 2012

I want to be SLC punks. I want teams to leave ESA bruised, bloddied, defeated, and confidence rattled.

— Jay Eh Ess Oh En (@JasonForTheLove) March 29, 2012

Watching KG get physical with Al, and then watching Al stop fighting last night ... well, I'm totally on board with what Jason's really talking about. Hopefully our guys can get some more fight.

And as Jason mentioned, Kanter already has some nasty to him. And Hayward definitely fights defensively (I love it when opponents think they can take him 1-on-1 or push him around—so funny).

So let's all raise a glass to Stockton's screening elbows in the kidney, and may that spirit find its way to our guys today.

It's totally not fair, but it's just too awesome. A gif by Moni, entitled: Mike Sanders caught on camera talking to his junk, and Jamaal Tinsley wishing he were anywhere else, and Devin Harris studiously pretending he’s not listening.

via jazzfanatical.files.wordpress.com

This reminds me so much of my students when a math lesson isn't going particularly well.

So ... open poll. What's your caption for this bout of Gif'ed awesomeness?

* Hayward isn't actually listed in ESPN's rankings of FG%. Somehow he's not included in the "qualified players" in this section. I couldn't figure out precise qualifications, so I just posted where his FG% would be ranked compared to those "qualified" players.

Well, sort of ...

I feel kind of funny writing this. Aside from the second overtime, I didn't see any of the Hawks game. I didn't see the Jazz get down. I didn't see the comeback. I didn't see Favors go Beast and then ride the pine. I didn't see the tired players.

But I still wanted to write a bit in response for the criticism Ty Corbin is getting.

More after the jump

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Now that was awesome.

Our heroes scored, they defended, they ran up and down the court like madmen. They beat the snot out of Denver and just kept destroying them. It got chippy, but our guys again kept their cool while the others fell apart. And the pace. My goodness, the pace. Despite the periodic opining "the Jazz need to get back to their speed," they kept it up and blew the Nuggets out of here.

And as great as that was, the specific details of that game make it even better:

1. This was the second game of a back-to-back
2. The Jazz endured a wild, exhausting game the night before
3. Yet it was our guys who had all the energy and ran them out of town
4. It was against a division rival
5. It was against a team ahead of us in the standings
6. It was a win that got our guys back into the playoff count

Damn, that game was fun.

More ... including the Quintet ... after the jump.

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I'm going to get some flak for this, but that's okay.

There are some things that really annoy me. One is obsession with scoring lotsa points, as if the leading scorer had the best and most notable performance. This isn't helped by how news agencies recap games. It also isn't helped by Basketball Drivel you see in sites like DIME or SLAM. Actual quote from DIME:

If you [like] DeMarcus you have to like what he did tonight. Twenty-two points, 18 boards (10 offensive) for the big fella, but still a loss for Sacramento to Utah.

Aside from mention of Tinsley's inbounds pass off his defender's backside, that's the entire recap of the game. They don't even mention that DMC was 9-28 (31%) and a freaking idiot the entire game.

Or we can look at ESPN:

You read this stuff and think a) Al single-handedly led the team to victory and b) obviously nobody else showed up because Cousins and Thompson almost led the Kings to victory (the only other Jazzman mentioned pretends his airball was a pass).

More after the jump.

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The Jazz played in Sacramento three weeks ago. They lost. It set their record to 15-18. There appeared no hope for the team. Fans started getting snippy with each other. We all got frustrated. Amar vowed (and then failed) to be positive for an entire week.

And now look at us: 24-22 (that's 9-4 since the Kings loss). Fans happy and cheering. Amar can write positive things without even trying. ESPN's Playoff Odds have us back in the playoffs for the first time in more than a month.

Winning does that to you.

Coach Ty and the players credit recent success to defense. From the Deseret News:

And because they have defended aggressively, energetically and consistently as of late, the Jazz are seeing success on the scoreboard. Four straight wins, five of six and seven of 10.

If this sounds familiar, it's because it's exactly what was credited to the team's early season success.

So will it last this time? The early season success was, in part, built on wins against mediocre-to-lousy teams missing its stars. Well, that is a bit familiar:

The 9-4 record since the Sacto loss includes four wins against crummy teams (Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, GS). It also includes two wins against teams missing an important player to injury (Miami, Minnesota). The recent wins against the Lakers and Thunder are really the games that give us hope that the improved play more than just a high-desert mirage.

I'm guessing many of you do the same, but I check the standings daily. Sometimes more than daily. And there are some crazy issues in the West:

Four games separate the #4 and #11 team. The Jazz, of course, are right in the middle: 2.5 games out of 4th and 1.5 games ahead of 11th.

As the brilliant crew of SLC Dunk pointed out earlier, the Jazz schedule to end the year—among these teams between 4th and 11th place—is very very average. Not extra easier or harder, just normal. Typical total games, games against WC teams, games at home, etc.

But there is one major bit of awesomeness to the Jazz schedule:

Considering that a) Portland is tanking to the point of threatening to dip below Golden State, and b) the Jazz really want BOTH the playoffs AND a draft pick, those three games are some of the most important.

Truly fantastic piece about Alec Burks over at Salt City Hoops. Well, sort of about Alec Burks. Mostly it's about how the author (Sam Strong) completely changed his mind about what Burks was all about. Seriously, go and read it.

Here's my favorite bit from the article:

Burks is about to leave the locker room when I make my way in, running a comb through his hair he straps on his team-mandated pink backpack, standard issue for rookies in pro franchises. It’s not a new concept but as stupid as it sounds, the way a rookie carries or wears the backpack also says a lot about him. I’ve been in locker rooms where the rookie carries the thing like toxic waste, not Burks. He proudly slips his arms into both straps before looking around for any other interview requests. I catch him just in time, he gladly sticks around…Again, not normal for pro athletes.

My second favorite part of the article:

"I hope I’ll get to play more because I love playing in games," Burks said. "We’ll see."

Tonight Raja is hoping to return to playing. Coach Ty, of couse, is left wondering what to do with his wings. The SLTrib breaks down the whole conundrum for you. Here's the ultimate source of the conundrum, though:

Making the decision even more complicated: Bell’s aiming for a return against the Kings; Miles has recently played some of the best all-around ball of his career as a starter; Hayward has thrived in a reserve role that’s put the ball in his hands; Burks’ confidence has soared due to the increased minutes that resulted from Bell’s absence.

I don't know what the answer is. Even as Co-Captain fo the Play the Kids Club (est. April, 2011), I don't know my own preference.

So, open poll ...

How do you think Ty will play the wings (minutes and role) and how do you hope Ty plays the wings?

We played around with a format for the recaps, and in the end the original Jazz Quintet idea was the most popular. They certainly got the most comments, so this is what I'm planning on doing. Which is fine, since they take WAY less time than all those video analyses.

Before I start into the recap, here's an explanation for the Jazz Quintet:

In a small Jazz band like this, you usually have two headliners, and then the more anonymous background players. In this case the headliners are the singer and the fiddler. The background are the bass, guitar, and sax. It's a fun way to look at a game, because you get to highlight both the guys who were the Main Dudes (Millsap and Devin in this case), and the guys with lesser stats, but whose work held the team and game together.

It's a way to give some credit to the glue guys—the rhythm section who nobody knows by name, but keep the band together for the gig.

So, with that explained ... on to the recap and quintet ... after the jump!

Continue reading this post »

Last night I was feeling really good. As Co-Captain of the "Play the Kids" club since last April, it has been a lot of fun to see them play so well the last few games. It isn't just that they individually put up nice numbers, but the team played well. The offense was balanced, the individual defense was superb, the team defense was great.

So much fun.

So, of course, I Tweeted about how fun it was:

This brought out lots of really good conversations, but one important point was brought up by Jake Jeppsen (of The Utah Jazz Blog):

It's one of the major worries given today's NBA. It's been brought up several times as a problem with having teams built on young guys: they all are due their big pay raise within a couple years of each other, and then the team can't keep them all.

So I decided to investigate this a little more closely

More after the jump

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So, the Jazz lost last night. It's a bummer, because Phoenix is just about as mediocre a team as the Jazz. At the same time, all you had to do was remember a couple things and the loss suddenly becomes kind of expected:

1. The Jazz are dreadful at P&R defense.
2. Phoenix does a lot of P&R's
3. Steve Nash is the guy running those P&R's

So, yeah.

Incidentally, the Jazz players agree (from the SLTrib):

"Man, Steve Nash," [Al Jefferson] said. "Sometimes I feel like it’s 5-on-3 out there, the way he penetrates into the lane. He seems to always find somebody wide open. The older he gets, the better he gets."

Devin:

"They have one of the smartest players ever running the pick-and-roll," Harris said. "He understands where guys are coming from and how to get guys open."

This is #Positivity Week (Amar's second attempt), so to support him I will not bring up Howard's dreadful play (earned an F from Salt City Hoops), Alec Burks' DNP-Coach's Decision, how the bench built a 2nd quarter lead the starters would kill, or how the bench came back from another starter-built 3rd quarter deficit only to see starters let the game go in the 4th.

Seriously, I'm not going to bring it up. Because this is #Positivity Week, and I want to help Amar be successful.

Tonight we play Minnesota, and I'm bummed because we won't get the Earl-Rubio PG bonanza we've been dreaming of.

Rubio has, of course, torn his ACL.

Last night Earl sprained his ankle, and is listed as doubtful for tonight.

Just out of spite, I'm going to absolutely ignore all trade discussions/rumors until either the Jazz actually pull off a trade or the trade deadline passes (3:00 ET today).

I hate it when trade rumors overshadow the actual games. I think the constant bombardment of questions from reporters creates a toxic atmosphere around teams. Especially when they've been asking a guy if he's leaving for three straight years.

So forget it.

Wait, I will write one thing. The SLTrib gives us some startling insight into the Jazz Master Plan, Trade Scenarios being Bounced About, and all things Front Office:

With a little more than 24 hours remaining before a 1 p.m. MT Thursday trade deadline, Jazz General Manager Kevin O'Connor declined to comment Wednesday morning about any possible deals involving his team.

Actually, I'll say one more thing about trades. Reading about Dwight's waffling, remembering the Deron trade, and reminiscing Melo's situation killing his teammates last year ... I just have to say this:

These idiots are killing their teams AND their own chances to play for championship contending teams.

Here's a bit of Truth regarding building a team:

• It took the 76'ers 7 years to build a championship team around Dr. J.
• It took 10 years for the Rockets to get it right around Hakeem. Included in those 10 years are four straight first round exits followed by a year missing the playoffs completely.
• The Pistons didn't win it all until Isiah's 8th season. He missed the playoffs twice in those 8 years.
• It took Jordan's Bulls 7 years to win it all. They began his run with three consecutive first round exits.
• It took the Celtics 10 years to get the right team around Paul Pierce. They missed the playoffs five times during those ten years and had an additional two first round exits.
• It took 13 years for Dallas to get it right with Dirk. This run includes missing the playoffs twice, one of the most infamous melt-downs in Finals history, and four consecutive years they were booted in either the first or second round.

The point is that it takes time to build around a star. Even some of the most memorable quickies weren't really so quick. Yeah, Tim Duncan won a championship in his second season. But the other side of the story is it took 10 years to get the right team around David Robinson. We remember that Magic won a championship his rookie year. But in reality it took the Lakers five years to build the right team around Kareem (they even missed the playoffs once with Kareem).

Although the modern Lakers are a weird exception (because Shaq fell into their laps), you can even look at them: They missed the playoffs once, followed that with two first round losses, and endured Kobe pining for a trade before things turned around for them.

When stars commit for the long haul they give their front office a chance to build the right team. And it takes time. It almost NEVER happens immediately. And when players WON'T commit for the long-haul, it cripples the team. They have to muddle around like a 6-year-old in a toy story, desperate to spend their money NOW on whatever they can find that looks shiny. They can't save. They can't say ... you know, this young player is going to be really good. He'll be the missing piece in three years. They can't spend two years acquiring expiring contracts for a big trade.

And most importantly, the teams can't make a move, give it a couple years to see how it works out, and then make further adjustments.

And how many of these wandering hearts, dissatisfied stars, and NBA transients win a championship?

As far as I can tell only one has: Shaq.

(I'm not including guys like Kidd, Moses Malone, and crew because although they changed teams several times, they didn't do the ridiculous crap we see from Melo, Dwight, and company).

Great game last night from several of our bigs: Al, Sap, and Favors simply dominated inside. They scored 61 combined points, shot 25-46 from the field (54%), and 21 rebounds.

But to me the greatest thing is the team's assists. I'm not talking about 23 assists total (a decent, but hardly earth-shattering total). I'm talking about the distribution: 2 from Millsap, 5 from Big Al (12 in the past two games!), 3 from Raja, 4 from Devin, 5 from Earl, and 4 from Hayward.

That is what happens when the flex is working right: when the screens and cuts happen, when everyone works to help everyone get good shots. It's not just that there are assists, but it's that everyone is contributing them.

I believe with every ounce of belief I have that if this team is going to be successful, they have to play this way: helping each other get good shots.

One concern has got to be problems closing out the fourth quarter. In the past three wins (Miami, Cleveland, and Charlotte) the Jazz allowed the opponents to make a run in the fourth quarter. Some like to blame the vets. Others blame kids. The truth is everyone is involved with letting teams come back. Here's the game flow (from popcornmachine.net) from last night. You can see that after the 20 point lead, there is a consistent pattern: Charlotte makes a small run to cut the lead, the Jazz build it up again (but not as big), then Charlotte cuts the lead more, then the Jazz build it back up, but again not as big. Each high point is less than the previous one, and each low point is also lower than the previous one.

It's an overall downward slope regardless of who is in:

Edit: I'm looking at this chart now, and I realized that in my haste to get the DB off before I headed to school, I posted a chart that probably makes no sense whatsoever to anyone who hasn't seen popcorn machine before. Mostly because I accidentally cut off the players' names.

So, here's what it means: Each horizontal bar represents a player. Dark Blue is when he is in, light blue is when he's on the bench. The numbers tell stats of that player in the given time in. I think it's points and rebounds, but they aren't actually important to what this DB is about.

The starters are the bottom five (all of whom started in the 3rd quarter). The higher ones are subs.

The second to bottom bar, 100% dark blue and broken into periods, is the net +/- for the time a particular lineup is in. Every time there is a substitution a new period starts.

The very bottom blue bars show significant runs. You can see there were two the Jazz had during the second half.

Finally, the line chart at the very bottom shows the flow of the point spread. The higher it gets, the larger the Jazz lead. The top line is Jazz up by 20. The bottom line shown (actually the middle line, but I cut off some of the chart in my haste) is a tie score. So the line moving up and down shows the size of the Jazz lead. And that's what I wanted to point out. Comparing the line graph to the bars above showing which players are in, there is an overall downward slope from that high of a 20 point lead. That overall downward slope happens from the end of the third quarter to the end of the game regardless of who is playing. Sure, there are little fluctuations up and down, but the overall slope is negative regardless of who is in.

I have theories about this. For the bench players (made up of mostly the kids) I think it's an experience issue: still learning to react right and make big plays when the pressure is on. For the vets, I think Henry Abbott really explains it perfectly in this article "Hero Ball."

Once again, the Jazz are teasing us yet it's still hard to tell who they are. On the good side, they have won 4 out of 5 games. They haven't done that since January. On the other hand, Cleveland and Charlotte aren't exactly good teams. On the other hand Houston and Miami are good teams. On the other hand, the Jazz are a good home team and we know they'll beat good teams at the ESA. On the other hand, the Jazz have been terrible on the road—even against terrible teams (see New Orleans), so this an improvement regardless of the quality of Cavs and Bobcats.

Anyway, I think the next two games (at Philly and Chicago) will be really good games to see more clearly how much the Jazz have really come out of the February Funk.

SLTrib has a great story about how some of the kids and vets on the team have become close. The best part, though, is the little stories found in the Jazz Notes blog that didn't make the actual story for the article. Here's my absolute favorite:

Jeremy took us on a walk through Sacramento that — I'll [Earl speaking] never follow him again. Me and Burks will never follow him. He said we was going to the mall. We went through this deserted ghost town. I don't know where we was going. We crossed the train tracks, went across the bridge, some more train tracks, and then realized we could've just walked straight across the street. So we followed him. You got to ask Burks. Then he took us through this tunnel, and then he said we was going to the mall. We got to the mall and there was like two people in the mall. Two people. That's not a mall. We don't know. We're still trying to figure it out. It was the most unsafe walk I've had since I was a kid. That's the last time we follow him. Never again. Cabs from this point.

I don't know why, but that story cracked me up so badly. Especially when Jeremy Evans defended himself:

I knew where I was going. They just didn't like where I was going. I have no control over who's at the mall. … It's not my fault. I didn't know nobody was in the mall. I can't just be like, 'Hey [everyone], we're going to the mall.' I'm not going to tweet it.

Any guess about which vets the article present as having the closest relationships with the kids? Answer after the jump.

Last weekend, MIT hosted the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (SSAC). Basically, it's a conference looking at some pretty complex and interesting statistical analysis of sports—particularly basketball. (And by stat analysis we're talking about stuff WAY beyond PER, assist rates, or other things in the "Advanced" section of Basketball-Reference). It included studies on what shot locations tend to produce offensive rebounds and what types of players best fit together on a team. Crazy interesting stuff.

But of note: there were only three NBA teams that did not send a representative to the conference. Yep. The Jazz are one of those three.

How concerned are you that the Jazz didn't send anyone?

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I was going to write a game recap of the Mavs game. But I didn't see it live, and Synergy is drunk right now, so I'll have to go with something else. It will kind of be about the game, kind of about the Heat win, and then something else altogether.

* * *

First of all, let's get a major point of these games stated upfront and right away: The Heat and Mavs are two very good teams. To split the games against the on a back-to-back is a good thing for a mediocre team like the Jazz.

I watched the Heat game with my kids. I've mentioned my six-year-old several times, and it bears repeating the kid is absolutely a blast to watch games with. He gets so into it. And it gets me into the games like I'm a crazy 13-year-old again. We were yelling and cheering and high five-ing each other more during the Heat game than any other this year. We were also freaking out at various points in the fourth quarter.

My son gave out several gems of wisdom during the game:

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It is so much more fun when our team wins.

For me it wasn't just that they won. It was how they won: by pushing the tempo and making passes to cutters. Check out this run-down of made shots in the fourth quarter:

That's 9 assists on 12 made shots. It also includes assists from four different guys. Beautiful.

I have a lot of opinions about this team. I think that is very well known. One reason for some of my opinions is that I hate, hate, hate, hate, hate, despise, loathe, hate, hate, HATE iso basketball. Aesthetically it sucks. I also believe it impedes team success.

I grew up watching cuts and screens and interior passes that lead to layups. It was the Jazz way when they finally became relevant (almost 30 years ago). It was the Jazz way when Stockton and Malone struggled to lead the team from excellence to consistently elite in the early to mid 90's. It was the Jazz way when Hornacek pushed them into an elite team that had to be in every conversation about a potential champion. It was the Jazz way when AK and Sloan led their team of riff-raff to 42 wins. It was the Jazz way when Deron and Co. showed their flashes of brilliance that were sadly too short.

And last night it was so awesome to see the Jazz again return to the True Path of passing, cutting, and screening.

I am convinced that Earl Watson is the guy that holds the team together. Nobody pays attention to the other players' needs, nobody notices what they are doing right, and nobody publicly vocalizes support for them like Earl. Last week he said that he and the team needs to dedicate themselves to getting Hayward and Favors more more consistent and prominent roles on offense. (I've looked for hours where I read this, but I can't find it. If anyone knows let me know—I specifically remember Earl saying Hayward needs to score at least 10-15 points every game. But I can't find the source now.)

Then Earl gets excited about Evans winning the dunk contest (Twitter via Salt City Hoops):

via www.saltcityhoops.com

Here's Earl on what Al meant to the win last night (from the Trib):

Watson said Jefferson was the unsung hero for the Jazz, anchoring the team's defense and being very vocal.

"That's the most vocal I've ever heard him since I've been here and it helped us out completely on pick-and-rolls," Watson said.

Earl on Harris's game (form the same Trib article):

He's no longer thinking the game, he's just playing it and dictating the pace. And with him pushing the ball — when he pushes the ball, it creates everything else for him. It creates a rhythm. And he's finding that and he's being really effective in transition.

It's rare to find anyone that dedicated to everything good about his teammates. I'm so glad Earl's a Jazzman. And of course he led the team with 8 assists against the Rockets.

Plus the teacher side of me just grins that Earl correctly matches the singular verb (needs) with the singular noun (Jazz). He paid attention to his 4th Grade Language Arts lessons :)

February was a rough month. We went in knowing it would be nasty, and it ended up being pretty nasty. The Jazz went 4-11. In a few wins it could be argued the Jazz overachieved to beat better teams (Lakers, Memphis, Houston). Likewise, in a few losses it could be argued the Jazz underachieved to lose to lesser teams (Golden State, New York, New Orleans, Sacramento). But at least we got to end the month smiling. Thanks CJ, Devin, and everyone who participated in kicking the Rockets' collective butt.

Now comes March. 19 games in 30 days. 12 games on the road. It includes a week they could lose every game (the big road trip starting on Saturday in Dallas). That week is immediately followed by one in which I could see them winning every game (Detroit, Minnesota, Golden State at home, Phoenix on the road).

My personal feeling is that the first real key stretch begins next Monday: at Cleveland, Charlotte, then Philly. If the Jazz can consistently do smart s***, those are three winnable road games (The Sixers have been struggling as of late). But if not ... that will be where a very long, frustrating month begins.

I am very anxious for those particular games.

Open Poll:

What do you hope to see both the team and individual players accomplish this last half of the season?

* * *

P.S. Read the Earl Tweet again. You never really know what his intent is. I consider myself a quasi-professional writer (not for this blog—for other stuff), and I throw out hundreds of phrases a week with unintended connotations and implications. It's simply a hazard of the writing craft. That disclaimer in mind ... doesn't it read like Earl's calling out one or more teammates for being self-absorbed and indifferent to the needs/wants/goals/successes of each other?

I'll just add that to the list of things I wonder about with a 100% guarantee I will never know the true answer.

Sometimes I feel like Inigo, but regarding a differnt word: a much maligned word, filled with angry feelings and negative connotations: Tanking.

I have heard the word before this, but the earliest truly vivid, specific use of it that I remember was from Simmons in describing the 2006-07 basketball season. Greg Oden and Kevin Durant were, of course, the top prizes from the draft. Several teams (including Simmons' Celtics) kept their best players on the bench, with obviously bogus "injuries", simply so they would lose and get in better position to win the lottery.

Fast Forward to five years later.

Now, every time a fan, sports writer, or anyone makes any reference to getting a better draft pick or "they may lose a few more games, but in the long run they'll be better off", our ears prick up, and we shout "Tanking! Tanking! Tanking!"

And sometimes I just want to say: You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.

More after the jump

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Okay. It was a crummy loss. We're all mad about it. We're all frustrated with what "competing" is looking like game after game after game. But let's think positively:

1. Burks did his thing again.
2. Devin played well.
3. They got off to a great start.
4. There were tons of deflections and steals. Great classic AK-style defense in the first half.
5. Millsap shot well again.
6. Josh played well.
7. Hayward was able to start the game strongly.
8. Favors rebounded again.
9. Coach Ty again showed creativity in the final minutes game-plan.

Okay, so yeah, you can scratch number nine.

But Deron can remind us that at least we aren't cheering for the Nets:

More positives: Sebastian Pruiti (of Grantland) released his latest rookie rankings and put Enes at number three. He's rising steadily—though with 9 minutes of playing time he won't be surpassing Irving or Rubio. One of my favorite things about Pruiti is he's actually knowledgeable, smart, and able to break down real skills of players. Every week he highlights something new about them. Here's what he's said about Kanter thus far this year:

Rookie Rankings IV (Jan. 31):

The Utah Jazz big is fifth in the NBA in offensive rebound rate and fourth in overall rebound rate, according to Hoopdata.com. The Jazz must be especially pleased that Kanter is taking those offensive rebounds and converting them to points. He shoots 60.7 percent on putbacks, according to Synergy Sports.

Rookie Rankings V (Feb. 7)

Kanter has done a very good job of moving without the ball. When his teammates drive into the lane, he finds space around the rim, catches the ball, and finishes in traffic. Kanter scores 1.192 points per possession while cutting away from the ball, and this puts him in the top 50 percent of NBA players.

Rookie Rankings VI (Feb. 14 - This addresses weaknesses, which Pruiti refreshingly addresses with everyone)

This week, let's focus on one of his weaknesses: scoring in the post. Kanter puts up 0.627 points per possession when he posts up; that places him in the bottom 17 percent of all NBA players. He shoots just 34.2 percent and commits turnovers 17.6 percent of the time when he gets the ball on the block. Two things stand out about Kanter's post game. First, he gets fantastic deep position. Second, he doesn't know what to do with that position once he gets the ball.

Rookie Rankings VII (Feb. 21)

According to Synergy Sports, when Kanter shows against pick-and-roll ball handlers, teams score just 0.622 points per possession. That puts him in the top 15 percent of pick-and-roll defenders. Teams also shoot 32 percent and commit turnovers 24.4 percent of the time when Kanter guards ball screens. And Kanter's sample size is significant — 45.6 percent of his defensive possessions include him showing against ball screens.

All these quotes leave me wishing two things: 1) I wish every sportswriter was as knowledgeable and intelligent as Pruiti, and 2) I wish ... well ... something about Kanter's playing time.

So, here it is. The bump:

I think Jazzfan Twitter exploded with it, with many of us putting our amateur psychologist hats on and going after Hayward for being soft.

I wonder if it really mattered that much. Yeah, Barea was being a prick. But I also notice that nobody seems to care. Not Hayward, not any of his teammates. I didn't see or hear anything from the Jazz coaching staff. Even in the Ricky Buckets triple-double DeShawn clobbered the offender.

In the end, I don't know what I think. I wish Hayward had done something about it (we've seen him be feisty plenty of times this year when battling on defense). I wish a teammate or two had done something about it.

But does it actually matter, mean or show us anything? I don't konw.

The Trade Deadline is approaching (March 15). Even Josh Howard will be eligible for a trade then. Some of us desperately want a change. Others aren't so sure. I thought it interesting to review our team's history of mid-season trades since Kevin O'Connor arose to power:

• February 23, 2011: The Trade. Deron is gone, Devin, Derrick, and the pick that will become Kanter arrives.
• February 18, 2010: Ronnie B. is traded to Memphis for nothing. (Okay, plus a pick shipped to Minnesota).
• December 22, 2009: Matt Harpring and Erick Maynor for the rights to Peter Fehse. Picks were also involved.
• December 29, 2007: Gordan Giricek for Kyle Korver. Picks were also involved.
• January 1, 2005: Carlos Arroyo for Eldon Campbell. Picks were also involved.

And that's it.

So a couple of thoughts. KOC has never done a trade at the trade deadline. They have always happened some time before. The trades have also always involved draft picks. So if any trades happen, we're probably either gaining or losing one. Finally: No mid-season trades for his first 6 years, then two in four years, then three in two years.

KOC's gone crazy on us, hasn't he?

Oh, and who's Peter Fehse? He was drafted in 2002, and he last played meaningful minutes on a semi-pro German team in 2006. Here he is:

Poll ...

Is Popovich screaming at the refs, screaming at an approaching sideline reporter, or just yawning? I can't tell.

* * *

First of all, the Spurs are really good.

Second, the Jazz had their chances. Check out the game flow:

Twice our guys got decent leads. Twice San Antonio came back. And they finally got their biggest lead the one time that ultimately mattered: in the end.

For me, the game was simply beautiful. I'm not talking about moral victories. I'm not talking about a secret, subconscious fetish for all things Spurs.

No, I'm talking about how the game was called by the refs. For the most part, the refs let them play. It was physical, there were a lot of bonking around, and it was all let go. Classic 80's basketball. And it wasn't that the refs were screwing the Jazz—they were swallowing the whistles on both sides. Nobody was getting screwed. They were just letting them play. You could push your guy out of the key. He could lean into you, shoulder down, and try to push you back. And the refs just stared at them.

I wish every game was officiated like this one was. It made for a fun game. A game with flow. A game where the tempo, the pace, and the rhythm were dictated by the players, not the whistles.

Anyway, on to the analysis:

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I'm working to get the Game Reviews back to their regular thing. But I'm a bit behind. So here's the Rockets game, and later will be the Spurs game. Hopefully before the next game has already been played this time.

* * *

I didn't watch the Houston game live. Why? Because I'm a good guy. :)

So anyway, I came home and saw the box score before I watched the game on Synergy. And it's funny how the narrative I ultimately saw watching the game is very different than the narrative the box score seemed to tell (and other recaps corroborated).

You know the narrative: Al and Sap came to play, nobody else showed up, our guards decided they wouldn't guard Lowry for the night, and that was that.

Well, it turns out there is a lot more to the narrative that I expected to see. And it all starts with these stats (via Synergy):

Here are the plays that ended with a shot: 23 post ups, 21 spot ups, 7 iso's, 7 P&R's and 4 cuts. 16 assists on 32 made shots.

Post ups, spot ups, and iso's? That's not what I believe Jazz basketball was about—not in the good days, anyway. So I compared this to an awesome game: one that got Henry Abbott at True Hoops freaking out about how incredible the Jazz were after destroying his Blazers three times in a month. So, Feb. 3, 2010:

23 Spot ups, 17 cuts, 16 transition, 11 P&R's. 8 iso's and, seriously, 3 post ups.

That's the Jazz O I remember loving. They scored 31 points on those 17 cuts. That's what Henry Abbott was so dazzled with—the interior passing, screening, and cutting that led to 32 assists for 41 made field goals. It's not that the team didn't go into the post, it's that the post wasn't the end point of the plays.

Some of the differences are, of course, expected. The best Jazz scorer today is Al Jefferson. Of course they're going to do post plays for him. Where that Jazz team had Deron, Memo, and AK (Boozer was ... this will shock you ... out that game nursing an injury). Different personnel means different strengths.

But still. Four cuts? FOUR?! Equal number of iso's and P&R's? What the frak is going on with this team?

Well let's see, quarter by quarter:

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I'm a huge fan of the Lord of the Rings movies. As a true geek, I love the extras—the detailed features that show exactly how the movie was made: step-by-step, from pre-production to post-produciton. One particular story has always fascinated me: the CGI development of the giant mumakil collision:

Isn't it amazing how all the little decisions, all the little bits of work over months ended up with a magnificently rendered scene that missed the point of the shot so badly Peter Jackson could only say "huh." The vision of the shot was forgotten, and months of work led them further away, one tiny baby step at a time.

Of course, I'm not really writing about Weta Digital, nor about Return of the King.

I'm writing about the Jazz and their maddening ability to ignore the vision.

More after the jump.

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Note: no wild dream this week. Sorry. My dreams have just been non-basketball related and kind of boring.

And so the Jazz roster now stands at 14. If you missed the news, the Jazz signed FA DeMarre Carroll. He's a 6-8 Forward, most recently out of Denver (four games played this season). He's taken six shots this year and made them all. He's a career 41% shooter, but he does not shoot threes. Except for the rebounding, he seems like kind of an extremely poor man's Kenneth Faried.

Thus far in his career, his best performance was his second game in the league: 12 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals, and 5 fouls in 32 minutes against the Toronto Raptors.

Why the Jazz signed him is a bit of a mystery—especially since they already have 3 decent players that have a hard time getting playing time.

Some started thinking trade conspiracies as soon as he was signed. Or maybe it's because the Jazz liked his hustle. Perhaps they wanted to have two 7-man teams for inter-squad scrimmages. Me?

I believe the Dwarves felt uncomfortable going after a dragon with a party of 13, and Gandalf had to get creative to get a luckier number. Now can he find a magic ring to: 1) save our butts and 2) bring on an apocalyptic war 60 years after we win back Esgaroth?

Many moons ago, when the Jazz sat at 6-3 after five straight wins (four of which were against suspect teams), I wrote that the next 15 games would be a sample better representative of the NBA: some bad teams, some mediocre teams, and some good teams. How did the Jazz do? They went 7-8. Considering they still had a fairly easy schedule in terms of home vs. away games, that has to be disappointing.

And now the schedule gets harder.

People are starting to notice our young guys—and not only that we have several of them. Hayward has been chosen for the rookie/sophomore game. He's excited, but in classic Hayward form can't help but defer some of the honor to his teammates:

Sebastian Pruiti (the former NBAPlaybook.com guy who now writes for Grantland) has released an updated rookie rankings, and our own Enes Kanter makes his number 3 spot. This is awesome, because Kanter doesn't just get a write-up—when you're in the top 5 you get an NBAPlaybook.com-style video to go with you.

Here's a bit of what Pruiti has to say:

Kanter has done a very good job of moving without the ball. When his teammates drive into the lane, he finds space around the rim, catches the ball, and finishes in traffic. Kanter scores 1.192 points per possession while cutting away from the ball, and this puts him in the top 50 percent of NBA players.

I think most of us have been pleasantly surprised at how quickly Kanter is developing.

True Hoops just launched a new blog that I think could be filled with brilliant stuff. It's called HoopIdea, and it's dedicated to rule/system changes that could be made to make NBA basketball better. Here's its basic thesis:

We want a purer form of basketball. When you play a pickup game, the game flows continuously. No one is trying to get the other team in foul trouble. No one calls a timeout. Defenders don’t worry about the restricted area, or try to take charges. No way. Players try to make plays.

That’s what we want to see: Players making plays. Great passes. Superior teamwork. Spectacular action. Strong defense. Fantastic shots. Amazing dunks. Great basketball, all the time.

Some of the suggestions in the comments are predictably gimmicky and idiotic (4-on-4 in overtimes, soccer-style substitutions, 4 points for a half-court shot—I think Celtic fans just relived the Antoine Walker years with that suggestion and almost died). But I'm curious to see what they come up with in the actual blog posts.

Me? I don't know what rule changes would fix things, but the worst in-game frustrations are ticky-tack fouls and flops. I also have a scheduling crusade: 62 game season. I'll explain why sometime.

Open poll:

Does anything change regarding what you hope to see each game if the Jazz are or are not a playoff team?

For me it makes all the difference in the world—but I'm curious if others are the same.

Note: I was ready to post the GS game review Friday, but my internet mysteriously went to stone-age speed. Then yesterday came, I was writing it up and I (stupidly) checked Twitter where all you-know-what broke loose. I ended up putting together my angriest post of all time. You may read it later today. Or not. I haven't decided whether to post it or not. But the object of my wrath is not who you probably expect.

Anyway, the after the Lakers Game I suspect nobody cares about the Golden State loss anymore. But I'm going to write about it here anyway, because I was proud of some of the things I came up with. It was really a fantastic game to rewatch to see if initial impressions were right or not (often they were wrong), So anyway, I was in charge of both the Lakers Game and the GS game, so you're going to get both here.

Another Note: I can't connect to YouTube, so I can't get the videos up yet. I will ASAP.

Golden State, or Sometimes the Other Team Wins

It was a game I was terrified we'd end up losing. And all my initial impressions told me the same story: the Jazz looked tired—especially our bigs. I saw it. Locke pointed it out. The stats seemed to confirm it.

But some didn't buy it. Some blamed the guard-line (Tinsley and Hayward). After all, they allowed Curry and Monta to go bonkers on us. It was an accusation that I didn't like, because Tinsley and Hayward were two guys who seemed to show up. So I went back and watched the game again. Some plays 5-6 times to see everything that was going on—and what I saw really surprised me:

More (including the Lakers review, if you're only interested in that) after the jump

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