I won! The question remains, will I get paid? Here are the final standings: 

Love the league, and it's a keeper league, so I look forward to defending my title next year...

Carl Crawford - .0 HRs. 166 wOBA. 2 SBs. 032 ISO. Ouch.

Carlos Pena - 0 HRs. .024 ISO. 33.3 K%. .283 wOBA ($10 million salary HA) Awful. 

Jason Bartlett - .000 ISO. .242 wOBA. No bueno, but a 11.5 UZR!?

Matt Garza - 0-2 6.37 ERA, but 1.19 FIP and 12.05 K/9. OK. Also a solid start today (9 Ks, 0 ER)

Rafael Soriano - 7.04 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 5.87 BB/9, 7.04 K/9. Shirt tucked in.

Dan Wheeler - 11.37 ERA, 5.59 FIP, 2.84 HR/9. Eeks.

Lance Cormier - 11.57 ERA, 6.07 FIP, 5.14 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9

Grant Balfour - 4.26 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 8.53 K/9, 4.26 BB/9. Meh.

Chad Qualls - 1.17 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 66.7 GB%. Not bad for Chad.

Joaquin Benoit - 1.17 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 5.87 K/9, 1.17 BB/9. Solid, but not worth his salary!

Dioner Navarro - .833 OPS, 2 SB (!!), on pace for 162 RBIs.... in AAA. Now rehabbing. Fail.

Randy Choate - Whatever.

Willy Aybar - MIA.

Rays Re-Sign J.P. Howell By Ben Nicholson-Smith [MLBTradeRumors.com]

At least one of the Rays' free agent relievers is returning to Tampa Bay. The team re-signed left-hander J.P. Howell, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times (Twitter links) who reports that the deal is for $1.1MM plus incentives. The Rays non-tendered the 27-year-old earlier this month, but continued working toward a deal with him. Legacy Sports represents Howell.

The 2004 first rounder missed all of 2010 after undergoing left labrum surgery in May. Back in 2009, Howell was effective for 66 2/3 innings, posting a 2.84 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 and picking up 17 saves. He was equally effective in 2008, when he posted a 2.22 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 89 1/3 innings.

The Rays will be able to retain Howell in 2012, since he won't have six years of service time after next season.

Just got inside scoop that David Price and Evan Longoria will be making amends for their recent comments about attendance by offering up 20,000 free tickets to the Rays next home game, tomorrow 9/29. More details to come...

CONFIRMED: Marc Topkin confirms the story -  http://twitter.com/#!/SPTimesRays/status/25820437773 (2 minutes after I broke it on Twitter - http://twitter.com/#!/zwendkos/status/25820330395)

MORE DETAILS: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/rays-give-away-20000-free-tickets-wednesday

Silverman: "I don't think we would have" done it if Longo, Price hadn't spoken out on crowd size, but it's more about creating Trop energy

EDIT: TBO.com is reporting this: .

Rumors began circulating almost immediately on Twitter that Longoria and Price bought the tickets, but Silverman said that the team made them available.

In an ESPN article (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5422673), Christina Kahrl speculates what it might take to land some of the biggest stars in baseball. One of the deals has the Rays acquiring Hanley Ramirez for Jeremy Hellickson, Reid Brignac, Matt Moore, and Nick Barnese. She also proposes a trade that would send Evan Longoria to the Angels for a heap of prospects (NOT inlcuding Mike Trout), but I'm not even dignifying that one with a comment. Here's what she says about the Hanley trade - FTA:

SS Hanley Ramirez to the Tampa Bay Rays for RHP Jeremy Hellickson, SS Reid Brignac, LHP Matt Moore and RHP Nick Barnese.
Nobody can offer as much good stuff in a single package as the Rays can, so why not go after the best rising talent in the game? He's already inked for 2011-14 for $57.5 million, so he'd be the foundation of their lineup for years to come, producing True Averages around .320 through the last year, when he'll only be 30.

But it'll cost, and only the Rays might be able to afford the exchange, giving up a pair of five-star prospects and four of their top-10 kids. Hellickson's dominating at Triple-A and certain to star in a big league rotation as soon as he's called up, while Moore's a power lefty at Class A armed with consistent low-90s heat, supplemented with a change and curve that can be plus pitches. Brignac would be a fine replacement for HanRam -- and he's a couple of years removed from arbitration, let alone free agency. Barnese is a teammate of Moore's who adds an element of fun as far as being one of the most aggressive strike-throwers you'll find at any level -- with 16 hit batsmen against just 22 walks in 111 2/3 IP, he makes a point of owning the inside corner, but he has the stuff to have things his way.

Would you take this trade for the Rays?

How can a pitcher who throws no harder than a high schooler be successful in the majors? Well, if you're Ted Lilly, you cheat. And by cheat I mean stand 6 inches closer to the plate than you're allowed to. I first learned about this after reading an article by Rob Neyer on ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/3760/lilly-cheats-twitter-notices) that spoke about a specific instance that occurred in yesterday's game between the Cubs and the Dodgers (Lilly and the Cubs won 1 - 0).

Basically, the camera zoomed in on Lilly's foot when he was going through his windup and showed that his foot wasn't even close to the rubber and a few minutes later in the inning Casey Blake caught on, but argued with the first base umpire to no avail. I decided to investigate further, and, thanks to MLB.TV, was able to capture some screenshots that show Lilly blantantly violating the rules: 

Continue reading this post »

Joe Maddon switches up the lineup a lot. Personally, I like that (for many reasons), but others might be confused or bothered by it. Regardless, there are times when the Rays want/need to put their BEST lineup out there. The following lineups are what I (currently) think are the Rays' best lineups vs. RHP and vs. LHP:

Continue reading this post »

Listen, I know it's still very, very early in the season and very, very early in Tim Beckham's career (he's only 20 years old). But when can we really start talking about the lack of return the Rays' are getting so far on their investment of a #1 overall draft pick and record signing bonus?

Yes, he hit .275 last year. But he had a meh OPS of .717 and 116 Ks in 491 ABs and only 13 successful SBs out of 23 attempts -- a Willy-Aybar-esque SB success rate. After another offseason of training and growth, he is currently hitting .146 with 33 strikeouts in 96 at bats and an OPS of .532 this year. I mean, I'm pretty sure I could accomplish those stats (seriously), so can we start the "Tim Beckham is a bust" talk yet?

In a Sports Illustrated article due to come out soon, Carl Crawford is quoted, being blunt and straight-up about his (and Carlos Pena's) impending free agency:

On the potential of Pena and Carl Crawford leaving after the season: "This core group is going to still be together, me and Carlos are the only two guys that are going to be leaving," notes Crawford, perhaps giving away more than he should. "We definitely feel like this is a special year for us, and we would like to do something good."

Full article from Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times - http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/sports-illustrated-profiles-carlos-pena

Today Bill Conlin, Daily News Sports columnist, who covers the Philadelphia Phillies suggested that they have the best infield in the modern era in Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. Without a doubt, that infield is great, and the team results (two straight NL pennants, one World Series championship) speak for themselves (although PP had no part in that), but this got me thinking. If we look at last year, isn't the Rays infield (Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist, Carlos Pena) even better, therefore making it the "greatest infield of the modern era" ??

Let's take a look, using WAR (wins above replacement, which is the best estimation of a players' overall value) from FanGraphs:

Continue reading this post »

In "Hitters by Zones," Jeremy Greenhouse of BaseballAnalysts.com broke the plate area down into nine zones, scaling the vertical component of the pitch for the batter’s height. He decided to restrict the sample to only 2009 pitches at which the batter swung, so keep the sample size in mind. He offered crude charts showing how batters fare when swinging and gave the Top 5 and Bottom 5 for each category.

Not surprisingly, Dioner Navarro was the WORST in baseball in 2009 at successfully hitting pitches right down the dick:

Middle-Middle

This is clearly the most telling list (from the article) in terms of quality of hitter. To be successful swinging the bat, you have to be able to hit the ball pitched down the middle. As you can see, some of the best hitters in baseball are at the top, and our very own Dioner is at the bottom. It would be nice to see the numbers from 2008 (when he was "good") as well, but for now we'll just have to say that Dioner couldn't have hit water if he fell out of a boat at sea in 2009.

FULL ARTICLE: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/02/hitters_by_zone.php

A buddy of mine, who shall remain anonymous (Jon Brett), claims that Dan Wheeler is the worst pitcher in baseball, and takes it even further by saying he would take Troy Percival (circa 2008/2009) over Dan Wheeler any day. In his words, "I'd rather have a one-armed minor leaguer come into the game than have to watch Dan Wheeler pitch." Recently he cited Wheeler's performance in which he gave up a couple of HRs. He claims he has a heart attack everytime Wheeler comes in. I have gone above and beyond trying to make my friend understand that he's completely mistaken (rertarded is probably a better word), but he remains steadfast in his disdain for Wheeler. I can't stand it.

So, I am left with only one option--let the DRaysBay community prove Wheeler's worth and disprove Jon Brett's radical theories. Here are some facts I've thrown his way, please use as thought starters:

8th in AL in WHIP (0.95)
T-11th in AL in Holds (12)
Fewest walks of any pitcher in MLB with at least 40 innings of work (7)

From MLBTradeRumors.com:

At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats.  Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league.  The rankings cover a two-year time period.  They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither.  If you'd like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.

Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year.  Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law.  Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors.  Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through July 29th, 2009.  The rankings will obviously change over the next few months. 

Keep in mind that if players change leagues, they are ranked in their new league.  A few quick hits: Jack Wilson falls short of Type B status in the AL, and Cliff Lee remains a Type A in the NL (though his 2010 option is a lock).

Full rankings:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/17870577/Rankings-073009

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/breaking-news/story/1141091.html

The Associated Press

ST. LOUIS -- Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria is out of the American League starting lineup for the All-Star game because of an infected right ring finger.

He is being replaced by Texas third baseman Michael Young.

Chone Figgins of the Anaheim Angels is taking Longoria's place on the AL roster.

Continue reading this post »

"This fellow last year had 26 saves for us," Maddon said. "We went to the World Series last year and a lot of it was on his back. I can understand being not pleased, but with regard to the history of this organization, this guy played a big part in us getting there for the first time, and I hope the fans would remember that, too."

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/may/22/sp-joker-comes-up-aces-again-with-rays-in-a-pinch/

Definition of sunk cost:

"Sunk costs are unrecoverable past expenditures. These should not normally be taken into account when determining whether to continue a project or abandon it, because they cannot be recovered either way. It is a common instinct to count them, however."

Ok, great. So Percival had 26 saves for us... LAST YEAR . He's getting paid a big dollar. SO WHAT!? Decisions this year should not be made because of something that was accomplished last year, especially when considering a 39 year-old pitcher like Troy Worstofall, er, Percival, and he should not be given the closer's role simply because he has a closer's salary and a closer's past.

Losing now is not acceptable because we won a bunch of games last season. Blowing a bunch of saves and being just flat out terrible this year is not cool because you were good last year. It's water under the bridge and we're trying to sail to a World Series championship. And personally, I don't want Percival captaining that ship (I'll take him as a deck hand though).

The Rays should have kept Edwin Jackson as their closer?

The Whiff Index (courtesy of Buster Olney, ESPN)

The most swinging strikes in Thursday's games:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4198422&name=olney_buster

(disclaimer: Friedman, if you are reading this, please don't take it personally. I think you are the best GM in the game and we're lucky to have you. I'm just a passionate fan and I'm FRUSTRATED, as I'm sure you are too.)

I just got done watching that horseshit game and need to vent. Here are a few things I would try to do to turn this season around before it's too late:

1. Invest in a team's supply of HGH. Ok, I'm only kidding, but seriously -- the Rays need to get healthy. We need Riggans, Burrell, CC, even role players like Fernando Perez to be 100% healthy in order for this team to win 90 games. Are our pitchers even all healthy? Doesn't seem like it given the significant velocity drop...

2. Find a solution at closer. Percival looks like my half-drunk fat uncle trying to re-live his high school pitching glory days, only he's piching in the bigs. There are many ways to solve this problem, including bringing up Dale Thayer or Jason Isringhausen. Personally, I would rather look to find some help from outside of the organization and solidify a solution for the future as well -- it's going to be a need next off-season anyway. However, no one is really "out of it" at this point, so trading right now is close to impossible. With that said, I'd like to see us at least give Isringhausen a couple opportunities to prove himself -- he can't do any worse than Percival is going to do -- and if that doesn't work why not try Thayer? (ANYONE BUT PERCIVAL PLEASE FOR GODS SAKE)

3. Get Maddon to take B.J. out of the leadoff spot, at least until he starts hitting and we start winning. Put Aki first because he's used to doing it, Bartlett second because he's the most perfect #2 hitter of all time right now, 3. CC (stay hot), 4. Longo (stay hot), 5. Pena (keep hitting bombs) 6. Burrell (his hair always looks like he's in a shampoo commercial) 7. Upton (get hot, earn your way back up in the lineup) 8. Gabe of the day/Joyce (Joyce please) 9. Navarro/Riggans (more Riggans please). There you go, Joe. I still love you though.

4. Bring up David Price. It's time. Pull the effing trigger. Not only would he be any improvement over Niemann or Sonny, but he would add a little excitement and possibly spark the entire team. He would give the fans a little something positive to talk about too, which might not be such a bad thing for attendance!

5. Look at myself in the mirror and say, "Wait, my name is Andrew Friedman. I make fucking solid trades." Then go trade Kazmir and junk (bring Wade Davis up -- he's READY) and for our closer of the future plus a couple other studs. Kazmir still has great value, but it's fading. Fading fast.1. Garza 2. Shields 3. Price 4. Sonny 5. Davis -- Niemann to the 'pen.

Now I know I'm going to catch a lot of flack for #5, but let's be honest -- someone is going to have to be traded sometime, and out of the players with value and larger contracts wouldn't you prefer that person be Kazmir and not CC or Garza or Shields or Upton or Bartlett?

This really is just a rant. I don't know if it makes sense, and it probably doesn't, but it sure does make me feel a helluva lot better knowing that if I was GM Percival would be GONE.

Go Rays.

p.s. Longoria is the fucking MAN.

So I have a project for a statistics class that is completely open ended. The only requirement is that it involve multiple linear regression. I am definitely going to do something relating to baseball and/or the Rays, but I wanted to get some suggestions from the DRaysBay crowd because I plan on posting my analysis after I'm done.

I know there is a lot of statistical analysis around here, but what is something that you would be interested in seeing that hasn't been done yet (or, at least, hasn't been done for the Rays)? Suggest away...

Who do you want it to be? Who do you think it will be?

TIER III: Top-20 worthy

TIER IV: Mid-to-late first round

Charts courtesy of Todd McShay with ESPN.com

Personally, I want the Bucs to draft Percy Harvin. I think he's actually a top 5-10 talent and has a chance to be a Reggie Bush type but even better. In one very-unfamiliar-to-the-Bucs-offense word: EXPLOSIVE. 

With that said, there has been growing speculation that the Bucs will take Josh Freeman or Matt Sanchez, so if I had to guess who they will draft, I'd say one of those two guys.

I'd rather see the Bucs go for the best player available (who in my opinion would be Harvin if all of these guys were available at the Bucs pick) this year, and take their chances with in-house QBs this year. If it proves to be wrong, at the very least the Bucs will be in a good position to get one of next year's QB prospects (i.e. Bradford, McCoy, Tebow or even Snead or Clausen if they choose to leave early after big years).

Thoughts?

According to my source inside the organization, there is growing internal speculation (and expectation) that Derrick Brooks will re-sign with the Bucs for a 1-year deal at the veteran league minimum and retire after this year. Again, this is not confirmed, but the likelihood of this happening seems to be growing. 

I think it would be a great move on many fronts, namely restoring some fan confidence and approval. Brooks is a Bucs legend (if not THE Bucs legend), and it'd be shame to see him retire in another uniform. Also, it would give the new "young" Bucs some much-needed locker room leadership consistency.

Until this is a done deal, all we can do is continue to hope that we see #55 in red and pewter one more time. Bring Back Brooks!